Q3 Advance GDP Prints At 2.5% In Line With Expectations; 100% Debt-To-GDP Threshold Postponed By 45 Days

Tyler Durden's picture

Advance Q3 was expected to print at 2.5%; it printed at 2.5%. Nothing too surprising in the constituent factors, aside from the fact that this was the biggest QoQ jump in GDP since Q4 2009. What drove it? A massive surge in PCE which increased from 0.5% to 1.72% as a portion of annualized GDP: in other words, as consumer confidence hit a near record low, and as the stock market plunged to 2011 lows, somehow Americans spent $130 billion annualized over and on top what they spent in Q2. In fact, standalone PCE was 2.4%, substantially higher than the forecast 1.9% and the previous 0.7%. Where this spending power came from, we would be delighted to know. Also notable is that the government contribution to Q3 annualized GDP was precisely 0.00% - the first time in 4 quarters in which it has not been a drag on "growth." In fact the only two growth detractors were Imports and a 1.08% drop due to change in Private Inventories, even though as we pointed out yesterday using another data series, Inventories just hit a new all time high. Probably the only actual news here is that total US GDP is now "suggested" to be $15,199 billion, up from $15,013. What this means is that the moment of 100% debt to GDP for the US has been pushed back from today, following the 7 Year auction, to a point in mid-December.

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HedgeAccordingly's picture

nearly PERFECT trend in the S&Ps this morning.. straight up in a compression wedge http://bit.ly/rPEvAL

Clueless Economist's picture

Are these green shits?

Flakmeister's picture

2.5%, my ass..... This is beyond Orwellian

cossack55's picture

No, this is some remarkably solid kicking-of-the-can.

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

If a can is kick perpetually, is it really can-kicking?... or just how the system works?

JohnG's picture

Eventually (soon) that can hits a wall, and that wall is solid GOLD.

Panic Panic Panic's picture

That's one hell of a big can.

FEDbuster's picture

Should be revised down to 1-1.5% in thirty days, but by then no one will care Black Friday will be all the buzz.

merizobeach's picture

"GDP is now "suggested" to be $15,[xyz] billion, up from $15,[abc]. What this means is that the moment of [x<1]00% debt to GDP for the US[uckAss] has been pushed [forward]...to a point in mid-[Nexnevber.]"


Little Timmy: "And now, for my next trick...."

MsCreant's picture

What kicking the can means today = extend and pretend

What kicking the can should mean = ass kicking

HD's picture

They know you know. They are coming.

101 years and counting's picture

all inflation.  the real economy is crashing in the background.

azzhatter's picture

MSM will never report this but it is solidly inflation that is driving GDP. 

mayhem_korner's picture



Bingo.  It's absolutely inflation.  But the economy is NOT, I repeat is NOT crashing.  It's well past crashing and into the burning and disintegration stages.

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

All is well... no need for the Bernank to print.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Inflation spread over the GDP deflator. Oldest trick in the Keynesian book. Real GDP continues to fall.

machineh's picture


One of the two is flat-ass wrong.

Who you gonna believe -- the govt or your lyin' eyes?

Everybodys All American's picture

Why then does 2.5% GDP feel like a recession? Practically everyone still refers to this time frame as the Great Recession and that includes many many articles over the last few months. Very hard to view this data as real.

Archimedes's picture

Where do American's keep getting all of this cash from? Truly amazing. I wonder if they are tapping their 401K's to make end meet. Perhaps that is why all of these equity outflows are occuring. But hey what the hell do I know. Perhaps there are magical skittle shitting unicorns. If so I definitely want one for the Holiday's!

papaswamp's picture

"Real disposable personal income decreased 1.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent."
"The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.1 percent in the second."

Savings rate continues to decline.

Archimedes's picture

Ah Consumers are tapping their savings and levering up again. The crack up boom is here. Like I said a few days ago "The market will rise to 12K before the end of the week and 12,700 before Christmas.(I was severely JUNKED for it) but seems I was correct...sigh. Prepare for a 300 point day in the DOw.

MsCreant's picture

Skittles are too sweet and unhealthy. And they do come out of a butt...

That 401K may be the Unicorn in question though. Shit, get it now while it is worth something. My money is trapped against my will in something I can't get unless I am fired. Wish I could pull the money even with all the taxes and fines. I'd have it in PMs. I would be ahead on that front if I had been allowed to do it when I wanted to. I am a hostage to inflation. 

I wonder how purchasing gold and silver factors into these numbers? 

gaoptimize's picture

My bosses are good people, and worried.  I told them exactly this yesterday.

catacl1sm's picture

Cashing in whatever they can they can to buy survival supplies.

firstdivision's picture

That was all me.  I bought a new TV and a few new shirts.

Archimedes's picture

Hey I helped! I bought a sweet 1968 Gibson 175D and a Larravee Cutaway from a Guitar auction!

Panic Panic Panic's picture

I bought Spam. And tinfoil, for a dapper new hat. 

FEDbuster's picture

Think about Kevlar instead of tinfoil for that hat.

Price of 50lb bags of rice just went up 10% at Sam's Club. 

Tsar Pointless's picture

So the price index was 2.5%, and GDP "growth" was the same 2.5%.

Am I correct that this makes GDP a wash? I mean, doesn't the first number get subtracted from the second number?

It really IS all inflation-related "growth".

Am I wrong? Did I truly pick the wrong morning to quit drinking?

MsCreant's picture

I wonder about storm damage and such. I say this because I am stimulating the hell out of my local economy by building a newer better house than the one I had destroyed by a tornado in April. There were lots of tornadoes this spring. And floods. I have never spent this kind of money before in my life! There must be a lot like me out there.

Krugman would be pleased.

ArkansasAngie's picture

No doubt.

Although we still have Missouri boys working down here from up by Joplin.  They pay the gas to come.

Who'da thunk that Arkansas would be a job market.

MsCreant's picture

The "work" to settle my claim is ongoing. I am still dealing with the insurance adjustors and various support services, never mind the construction, or replacing the contents of the house. I underinsured by accident (I insured for what the house was worth on the market, not what I needed to replace it, really differnt number, I was short by 50,000), but even still, the insurance has been a great thing. My family is the source of a whole lot of employment right now (not to mention all the renting we are doing while the house is built, another kind of stim, they were unable to sell this house, so we are a generous income stream for them while they decide what to do next). 

The question would be, has there been more storm damage than normal?

The gov is always willing to blame the weather for bad numbers...

catacl1sm's picture

Cashing in on isurance simply moves productive capital to unproductive activities... such as rebuilding your house. Not that your house shouldn't be rebuilt, but that the rebuilding, in and of itself, is not a productive activitey in that it simply brings us back to par, instead of moving forward.

MsCreant's picture

Agreed. I am not Krugman, advocating broken windows or alien invasions. It is not sustainable nor real growth. I do wonder if there are enough storm folks spending insurance money out there to explain the rise in GDP.

Your point is something we do not keep in mind nearly enough and is the source of a great deal of misunderstanding and dishonesty. 

LongSoupLine's picture

Less fear means lower MRE demand and prices...hence BTFMRED.

ArkansasAngie's picture

You know ... I bet that if "they" could, they'd not have to publish any revisions.

Gee ... these guys are good at pretending

lizzy36's picture

Awesome so we don't need QE3?

I mean everything is fixed.

I am sure my pony will be arriving this weekend.

LongSoupLine's picture

Jobless claims revised up (shock!) This week's are 400k+...again.

Yet GDP is 2.5%...with 70+% of said GDP being....the consumer.

Yeah...2.5% isn't fudged...sure.

Everybodys All American's picture

My question to anyone is ... What actually do they consider domestic in these numbers and might that be why we feel so bifurcated in this economy. If the growth from these companies is from business overseas and then reported back here what real good is it to our people and economy. I'm getting the funny feeling that much of this growth is not really domestic.

papaswamp's picture

"Real disposable personal income decreased 1.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent."
"The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.1 percent in the second."

Savings rate continues to decline as more live pay check to paycheck. This can only go on for so long before we again begin to see defaults rise as costs drain what is left.

JPM Hater001's picture

Isn't this all just under-reported inflation and over-reported GDP via BLS b as in B and s as in S...BS?

spartan117's picture

USDX getting raped.

Flakmeister's picture

So GDP is growing at 2.5% and the 10 year is at ~2.2%..... 

Cog Dis would be so proud...

Iriestx's picture

I spent $7500 on weapons and ammo last quarter.  I'm driving the GDP.

papaswamp's picture

$447 Billion in new debt to generate $185 Billion in GDP growth.....yea that is positive.

trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

This number is completely meaningless when were running $1.3 trillion deficits. Get back to me when that deficit number is cut by 2/3 and we still have 2.5% growth.

dvsteenk's picture

but the rally is absolutely justified (bloomberg said so!)

gosh, they are pumping the shit out of it here in Europe before US opens... S&P might cross 1300 today, incredible as it may be

machineh's picture

Note that while the GDP deflator slowed by 1.3% from 2Q to 3Q, CPI-U accelerated from 1.5% (3 months ending June) to 4.4% (3 months ending September).

One of these agencies is way off the mark.

Contra_Man's picture

  "Where this spending power came from, we would be delighted to know."


Answer:  Consumer spending came from suspended mortgage payments (default) for which the Banksters' are not marking any defaults to market.  

Kicking the oil drum down the inflation highway IMHO.

Roland99's picture

It wasn't people signing up for Netflix.


Must be all those Groupon orders.