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Q4 GDP Comes As Expected, Claims Miss Big Two Weeks In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following last Thursday's weekly claims release we said "Initial Claims Beat Expectations, To Miss Next Week Following Revision" and sure enough, last week's 348K beat of 350K expectations has been revised wildly higher, to 364K, meaning the initial beat was not only a miss, it was wide by a mile relative to the 350K preliminary expectation. But robots do not care - all they care is the current print, which however this time also missed, printing at 359K on expectations of a 350K number. This is the first 4 week increase in the 4 week SMA since September as the weather impact of the record warm winter starts to fade away, as explained yesterday. Same gimmicks in the continuing claims number too which like everything out of the BLS is so meaningless for concurrent data, we will probably just wait until the next week revision to get a sense of what is truly happening. More troubling is that 78K people fell of extended and EUC claims as more and more drop out of the workforce. This means the unemployment rate just dropped courtesy of even more people giving up on finding work. Thank heavens for BLS math. In other news, the final Q4 GDP revision came unchanged at 3.0%, in line with expectations. There were no major changes to the components, however Personal consumption did decline modestly from the second revision's 1.52% to 1.47%. It also appears that the government has been consistently taking away less and less from "growth", detracting 0.93%, 0.89% and 0.84% with every consecutive revision. Overall, a wash, meaning March is about to close with about with 17 misses out of 19 key economic indicators.

 


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Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Siegel kiss

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"At the same time, new U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell to a fresh four-year low last week, according to a government report that showed ongoing healing in the labor market. "

whats the disconnect here?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Reality

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Right up until now I always thought I had a firm grasp on math....

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment brewing
brewing's picture

you have the same grasp of math that the bls has...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thats just rude. I thought this site was for civilized people.

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

It is you fucker...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:42 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

ot...but not really...what is with the quantity of ads on bloomberg with the israeli finance ministers??? what point are they trying to make

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"bring your own Uzi" (BYOU.)

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Here is the reality:

http://annoyanidiot.blogspot.com/

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Last week's revision up by 16K claims just so the MSM media can report the revised data as "declining" from 364K to 359K. In the meantime, expectations were 350K and 350K. Both missed.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

A blanket "good weather just pushes the predictions forward" simply doesn't wash (or scrub for that matter) well. In housing? Yes, absolutely. In labor? We're still predominantly biological creatures...no different from any other living thing. "give us more sun and we do more." I know it's gotten me off the couch...which is saying something actually.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

EXCLUSIVE:  BLS methods captured on film http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UajAiP3tKLg

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Last week's revision up by 16K claims just so the MSM media can report the revised data as "declining" from 364K to 359K." - TD

Sounds strangely bullish... in bizarro world.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment lead salad
lead salad's picture

Exactly!  From the spinsters at cnbs:

 

Jobless Claims Down Due to Revision

 Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000, the lowest level since April 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

 The report included revisions for claims data from 2007 based on updated seasonal adjustment calculations. New seasonal adjustment factors were also introduced for 2012.

The prior week's figure was revised up to 364,000 from the previously reported 348,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a claims reading of 350,000 for last week.

The four-week moving average for new claims, a measure of labor market trends, declined 3,500 to 365,000.

 

The Headline said Jobless claims down.  What a fucking farce.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What's a phucking farce? And that's a question I want an answer to: "what is a phucking farce?" is it different from say...a sexy pharce? Or a farty pharce?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Nobody is going to care about ANY of this B.S. when Facebook IPOs...

/sarc..... but true

I barfed in my mouth when zuck was called, "The ONE"

wtf

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment KickIce
KickIce's picture

Yep, that'll certainly piss off Obama.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"fresh four-year low'

I dont know about fresh...this whole thing actually stink to all high heaven.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

fonz, they give you the headline number knowing that is what the all knowing TV muppets will harp on. Then, the truth goes into the details, which many do not read since they are mentally challenged to understand anything but what they are told.

Looking at the details the employment picture is starting to deteriorate, even by govt. standards. And I have always utilized BBY as a tell on the consumer. And all is just great there. Closing 50 stores and lower earnings. Way to go. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

17 out of 19. Why, oh why, it the BLS not based in Vegas?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:52 | Link to Comment djsmps
djsmps's picture

You just gotta love CNBS: Final GDP Reading Misses Estimates; Claims Edge Down

Even Santelli, when announcing the news, said that because the previous week was revised upwards, this was a decline. Apparently do these revisions long enough, and everyone will believe them.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Seriously, he said that! He must be gunning for Liesmans' job.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

THE MARKET IS DOWN! What? "only a nuclear detonation will please us."? (that can be arranged btw. Anderson Cooper's working on it in Florida. And yes "I hate you gate community people too.")

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

QE infinity will solve everything.

If Bernanke can get measure of economy (DJ index) to 30k, we will all be winners. 

Let's hear it for wealth effect. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You've been light on the innuendo of late Elizabeth. "you're never too old on that front" as they say. I haven't seen that black cat I want to strangle around here lately either. What's up with that?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Unemployment claims will continue to drop until everyone is unemployed.

Such as it is in Bizzarro World.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:55 | Link to Comment msr gold
msr gold's picture

Hi...seasonally adjusted claims got historical revisions today. PAY ATTENTION!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Outlaw revisions or delay report

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Delaying report for one week makes the most sense to me, but it takes away manipulation so it's not going to happen.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment nickels
nickels's picture

Lies, damned lies, statistics, and Government statistics!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Also, has Spain come out yet today and denied that it needs a bailout?

Because as soon as we get to 3 denials, my personal bullish indicators go off the charts.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 10:00 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Just fly on out here. Let's have sex.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

At 3% annual growth, we'll double our economy in just 23.5 years! Growth is BACK!!! This is good news for me; I look forward to doubling my salary. I'm currenty unemployed. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

16K upward revision to last week's claims. But mr. market says: "oh, that was so last week".

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

 

Note to 2008-2011 (+/- 97 years), spamming economic indicators doesn't an economy make.  It's a good job though, making those spam numbers, if you can't find any work in the carnival.

http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3oiyxm/

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

3%... lol... yeah right.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55

 

3% in debased dollars, nominal, not real. Also, $1.2 trillion of annual GDP comes from borrowed money.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Every day another reason to stay in gold and silver money while waiting for this economic turd of a system to get flushed.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So the guy sitting at the roulette table bet black the last 60 or so times. Out of some statistical anomoly it landed red every single time. Another guy says, dude you've been wrong every time so maybe it is time to quit. In fact it is impossible for the wheel to land on red that may times in a row. The wheel is rigged and the casino is playing you for a fool.

The guy replies, No I like black and one of these times I'll be right.

The other guy looks at the idiot's shirt and there is a name badge with BLS printed on it. He says, ahh that explains it.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment theorist
theorist's picture

I am sorry but the media needs to start to compare comparables. When looking at a data series with the errors that the weekly claims has, you cannot compare a revised time series with an unrevised time series. There are two approaches you can take, one much better than the other. The first is to ignore the first piece of data that is produced and look only at the revised data, meaning you ahve a one week time lag. (Big deal, if you want to use thsi data you want the trend of a few months, you cannot really use one or two points, so waiting a week is not much of an issue), then at least you are comparing thigs that may be validly compared. The alternative is to assume that the error in the numbers is systematic, meaning that the error on the first print this week is of same order of magnitude and direction as last week's. In that case compare last week's unrevised number with this week's unrevised number. If you do this weekly claims have gone up, not down. We will have to wait till next week to see if the revised number for thi s week confiorms this assumption. An alternative to all this is to try and look at what the revised versus unrevised errors have been in the past and create a distribution from it. Then try to guesstimate what the error in this week's number is. Of all, the only simple way we have if we really want to use thsi week's nubmer right now is to look at last week's unrevised one. The media (with the exception of Zero Hedge of course) are truly ignorant. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

If only, more people bought into Bernanke's Fractured Fairy Tale!!

Things will have stabilized, I'll cash in my gold, buy a bunch of crap, refill my bank account, and jump into stocks. America will be roaring again! Given enough money-printing people can be dragged into boom-times, the roaring 2020's!!

That's his little-girl dream at least... and B.s.B. can wear a tiara and we'll praise him.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

All the while----this continues----unabated........over.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

almost forgot AAirlines----10-13k----dynegy-BK----MFnownotsoGlobal--The Newts political vega-1/3 campaign staff.===== etc etc etc.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture
USDAW: Kerry Foods is planning to close its factory in Durham, putting more than 350 jobs at risk - @SkyNewsBreak

350 here 350 there it all adds up,

 

Best Buy to close 50 big box stores, plans to open 100 new mobile locations - @msnbc_business

Is this growth?, 100 - 50 = 50, so that is 50 new stores? Now you can buy your 60" plasma tv from a guy in a van down by the river.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Dapper reminds me of a true story back in the early 80s---now x fatherinlaw and several others including myself were doing section 8 homes KCK---guy pulls up in a van--4-5 (at that time big color TVs) and X proceeds to purchase one (still in the box)--I said did you take it out and plug it in????--mind your own business I just robbed that guy- I got a 300$ TV for 100$ and its brand new---OK----while back at home the NEW BOXED TV was plugged in--didnt work--x said it was a bad cord---pulled back cover off----I said looks like you need a WHOLE NEW INSIDE TOO-------------laughed for a week.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Being self employed and not worked steadily for 4 years do myself and other self employed count? Unemployment is more like 12%-15%

 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Could be near 20%

There was a story about record small business startups in the UK. We've been seeing this in the U.S. too, which is really cool since some may in fact be successful. Thing is, the time to start a business is when you're working...  How many people will really be able to make up for that steady paycheck? Or be able to get a loan if they need a cash injection.

This nation and The Global Economic System, is broken. Politicians are so petty and small-minded they're watching it happen, frozen like deer, while reality comes barreling down on us all. Change has to be local and eventually build to a critical mass, because the ass-cracks that run things are only wasting precious time..

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

Can't help but notice those shrinking exports.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L  by the time the christmas returns were done, personalConsumptionExpenditures damned near disappeared! {topPurpleLine}

and "fixedInvestment" reporting saved the fuking bacon, BiCheZ!  w/out that one, final adjusted numbers suck, especially V. the projected;  maybe there were just less returns there?

however, as the ministry0truth has spoken, i shall attempt to stop the gaffaws, so as not to violate the alien and sedition laws by appearing disrespectful of authority

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Isn't this the 'V'-shaped recovery!?!?  =o

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