This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Q4 GDP Misses Estimates, Inventory Stockpiling Accounts For 1.9% Of 2.8% Q4 US Economic Growth
The US economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the supposedly blistering fourth quarter, yet the number was a disappointment not only in that it missed estimates of 3.0% (and far higher whisper numbers) but when one looks at the components, where a whopping 1.94% of the upside was attributable to a rise in inventories as restocking took place. And as everyone knows in this day and age a spike in inventories only leads to sub-cost dumping a few months later. In other words, the economy grew at a 0.8% pace ex inventories. Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth." Personal consumption was also weaker than expected coming in at 2.0% on estimates of 2.4%. Perhaps the only silver lining was Core PCE which came at 1.1% on expectations of 0.9%, however as discussed extensively before, this was driven by an unsustainable surge in credit-binge spending, primarily for iStore trinkets, and is hardly sustainable especially as the US Savings Rate fell to 3.7% in the fourth quarter, the lowest since Q4 2007. In other words Joe Sixpack is living large, especially since Joe Sixpack no longer has to pay his mortgage. Unfortunately this is a collision course with every economic principle and the next taxpayer funded bank bailout is only a matter of time. Bottom line: the artificial economic pick up is over and Q1 will see inventories actually detract from GDP: as a reminder Q1 2011 GDP subtracted 1.8% points from the final 0.4% GDP, and that was following only a 0.9% inventory rise in the preceding quarter, Q4 2010. And that is not even mentioning the tight fiscal situation no longer being a benefit to growth. Oh yes, and gas is no longer falling. And not to even mention that the GDP deflator mysteriously imploded from 2.6% to 0.4%: that's odd - not even edible ipads seem to be coming down in price. Which means that using a reslitic deflator would have resulted in virtually no GDP growth. To paraphrase Lester Burnham, "It's all downhill from here."
Finally a chart of the GDP Price Index. It just printed the third lowest since 1963.
»
- 12590 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Everything looked normal... until it didn't.
My electric bill just went up another $6. per hundred. My wood heater looks better every day.
AEP got a 5% hike allowance in Dec. I added more LEDs and should break even after the payback period.
With the warm winter and low NG price, total energy bills should be flat this winter in the midwest.
Adding more LED's myself. Found some on AMZN by CREE for half of what they were just months ago.
Power Co. here just got the OK to raise rates 11% in Dec.
That's the problem it really doesn't measure anything worthwhile, yet for all the bullshit activity out there we still have wayyyyy too much debt and not enough prosperity to go around.
BDI at 726, still dropping...
Are you a gaucho/hockey fan?
'Yet for all intents and purposes, this is considered "growth."'
using official numbers, no one has any idea if the economy shrunk or grew....the margin of error on the gdp calculation is too large against the reported change number....my guess is that the economy shrunk yet again as it has done almost without interruption since 2000!!
When is someone who works at the Bureau of Economic Analysis going to grow a pair and blow the whistle on this shameful manipulation of statistics. GDP Price Index down that much from last year is total BS. That is the real story here, total reversion to banana republic tactics. Thank you Tyler for shining the light of truth on this.
When everything is a lie, what lie do you expose? Who is going to cover the announcement? Who will believe the "Cassandra" who decides to come forward?
Muddle, muddle, toil and trouble,
Huddle, huddle, masses under the bubble.
We're not growing and that's a good thing, though only for selected groups, like those who have seen it coming all along, nascent Nihilists and, of course, those at the top of the food chain.
Here's my checklist for peace and prosperity in one's life:
Paid for house ?
PMs ?
Guns & ammo ?
food in storage ?
garden ?
plenty of cash for six months expenses ?
solid understanding of the situation ?
don't give a rat's ass about coming elections ?
severe, deep-seated hatred of banks and govt. ?
a business that keeps churning cash ?
clear conscience ?
Options include, sex slave, big dog to scare potential intruders, smokes (all kinds), liquor (you'll need it), home-brewing, wine-making or still (best of all worlds, all three), neighbors who may not fully comprehend the situ, but still are not ass-holes, working computer(s).
Note that anything I-related, phone, pad, whatever, are not even optional. They're just junk for idiots.
Since anybody who reads ZH is probably a notch or four above the teeming masses, we, as a group, should be exceptionally pleased that the system hasn't gone full retard into the eventual collapse, yet. Gives us more time to prepare for Armageddon, should it come, though we will be best prepared to fight off the zombies.
My advice: stick to your plan and work it. Hard. Tell those who think you're nuts (98% of population) to F-off. Fight like a gladiator for every fcking penny and never lose faith in your own unique human ability, which knows only the limits you put on it.
Life is good and getting better for those who are prepared. Screw the rest of the idiots.
Edit: Those ? marks were inputed as check marks. Guess using a Mac still has it's issues. Steve Jobs died too soon.
That's a great list and advice, FreeNewEnergy.
I need 2 more years here in the U.S.A. and then my Thai wife and our kids will move back to Thailand. I will have almost everything on your checklist and A LOT of the options.
Having lived there before, I don't see the need for "guns and ammo" though. I blend in well with the locals, never flash any cash, and I'll easily be able to pass myself off as an old white guy living off of his pension and coming to Thailand to see his kids grow up and then die...
This Fiat vs. Gold struggle is going down to the wire ! In the last week I charged an "In n Out" burger and later a "Wienerschnitzel" chili dog on my Visa card ! No signature is required on less than $35 purchases ? I'm thinking even fractional 90% silver coins will be family heirlooms only used for major purchases ! Rush, a one man clearing house for media lies, is ranting on these phony GDP numbers ! He's mentioned ZH positively on previous ocassions ! Monedas 2012 He hasn't acknowledged Monedas....YET !!!
Inventory at department stores, car lots, etc....even th ehousing inventory is over 9 years according to the NYT from what I read.
So how long will it take to liquidate this massive buildup? Bill Gross said aggregate demand will continue to plunge....so what is the solution?
looting will drain excessive supply.
http://covert.mypressonline.com
This was supposed to be the strong quarter before the recession and it really hasn't failed to materialize.
Companies brought a lot of capex forward into Q4 for tax reasons - that is going to be a drag going forward.
http://kelpie-capital.com/2011/10/18/recessionary-times-the-evidence-is-...