This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Q4 Spanish Unemployment Soars By Most Since Lehman, Hits "Astronomical" 23.3%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For anyone convinced that yesterday's S&P two notch downgrade of Spain to A is the last one for a while, we have some bad news: in Q4 Spanish unemployment soared by the most since the Lehman collapse, hitting what new PM Mariano Rajoy called an "astronomical" 5.4 million. This compares to 4.978 million people unemployed at the end of Q3 2011. Since the official number is not yet public and will be released on January 27 we will take his word for it. In which case it becomes clear that in Q4 the Spanish economy experienced a Lehman-like collapse, losing more than 400K people, or the most since the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers. In percentage terms this means that Spanish unemployment rose by a ridiculous 2%, or from 21.5% to 23.3%, in one quarter! And since Spain is a country of the Keynesian persuasion, we can only assume the number includes a whole bunch of meaningless birth/death and seasonal adjustments, but we'll leave it at that. Incidentally, it means that by the time the mean reversion exercise, with cost-cutting and what not is complete, Spanish unemployment will be well north of 30%, and 2 out of 3 people aged between 16 and 25 will be out of a job, if ot more. It also begs the question just what the real unemployment picture in the US, which lately has put the Chinese Department of Truth to shame, would be if reported on a realistic, unadjusted, and not "workforce contracted" basis. The chart below shows you everything you need to know.

This is what quarterly Spanish unemployment looks like pre-BLS "intervention"

From AP:

"This year (2011) is going to close with 5.4 million people... who want to work but cannot," Rajoy said, anticipating official unemployment data due to be published on January 27.

 

"It is an astronomical figure," he said in a speech to supporters of his conservative Popular Party in Malaga, southern Spain, in which he reaffirmed fighting unemployment as his top priority.

 

"This is our challenge and all our efforts and all our policies are going to be dedicated to this," he said, without giving a new percentage rate.

 

Economists have warned that Spain may be back in recession with the economy likely to contract in the first quarter of 2012. The Bank of Spain said the economy shrank in the last quarter of 2011.

As a reminder, S&P said there is a substantial chance it would lower Spain even further:

"We could lower the ratings again if additional labour market and other growth-enhancing reforms are delayed or we consider them to be insufficient to reduce the high unemployment rate."

Time to start pricing in the transition from spAin to sBain?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:19 | 2064699 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why aren't they rioting like their European friends?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:24 | 2064706 Ralph Spoilsport
Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:28 | 2064714 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They still have social programs to keep them from starvation. Some are leaving  for Sth America But austerity is the only solution to sovereign debt crisis. Lil problem. That will be the spark

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:40 | 2064740 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

well, every summer an incredible amount of north africans come for the harvests - so in theory they could just enforce their labor laws and every Spaniard would have a (very badly paid and hard) job...

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:47 | 2064755 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Soaring on the downward side are the BDI and BSI. Any other shipping indices that are not collapsing ?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:19 | 2064804 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

US transportation going down

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:54 | 2064929 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Good thing we're in a recovery, because otherwise that could be bad.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:16 | 2064967 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Right, this Recovery is great. We have some good math and techniques to keep our unemployment numbers down,

i guess other places haven't learned them yet.

 

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 19:00 | 2065130 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Our unemployment stats aren't any better.  John Williams has US unemployment rate at 22 or 23%:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 09:51 | 2066050 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Parity, the world over, on ever front.  Wake the fuck up, this s what the elites want.  It play into the world currency perfectly.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 13:55 | 2066474 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Williams exaggerates, 11.2% to 11.4%.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:24 | 2064978 Teamtc321
Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:48 | 2064918 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

HARPEX...on no that has been diving too.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:22 | 2064975 SMG
SMG's picture

Not that it means anyting, but the baltic dry index is collapsing as well.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 20:37 | 2065330 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It collapsed in 2008. That is a picture of it falling through the floor. That means nothing but essentials is moving or a few non essentials and some of the essentials can just pound sand.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:01 | 2064777 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

every Spaniard would have a (very badly paid and hard) job...

LOL.  Jobs Hispanics just won't do?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 19:38 | 2065170 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

living in Spain half the year i can tell you there's absolutely no signs of this unemployment or decay (except for the ghost properties built for tourists 2nd homes)

the streets in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Marbella are clean, civil and look to be doing just fine. I think the youth unemployment is kept bottled simply because of the family support system and the Spanish Govts overly generous welfare State

if it's not the socialists ruining the country it's the right wing and Church.. both have culturally hed-fuked the Spanish into a modest unambitous existence.. they couldn't care less about really getting ahead and anyone that does gets severe jealousy (like a few too many parts of Europe)

Not that there's any chance of that after 14 years of suicide socialism, the property sector is a graveyard and the energy sector is an expensive green joke (one wind energy Co was running diesel engines when the wind wasn't blowing to wrack up revenue ...yet another public-private fuking farce)

this is another country strangled to death by the State and its rotten backers (Church included)

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 11:12 | 2066127 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

How can the church have so much influence when only 16% of the people attend church weekly? Spain has become one of the least religious countries in Europe. Gay marriage is legal and over 70% of Spaniards support gay marriage. 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 14:33 | 2066558 piceridu
piceridu's picture

I spend a lot of time in Italy too. It's the same there. If it wasn't for family, family homes and property passed from generation to generation without being mortgaged to the gills, Italy would be in much more trouble...and to answer your question:

"How can the church have so much influence when only 16% of the people attend church weekly?"

Almost none of my family goes to church but the tenacles of the Church are far reaching. Go to Rome and check out the Vatican museum...and see for yourself what real wealth looks like. There's a reason why Vatican City is a seperate sovereign country protected by Swiss guards. 

 

 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 05:00 | 2065889 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Possible good example for comparision.  According to a NYTimes article a couple months back, some farm jobs in the US are not getting filled by unemployed Americans precisely because they do not want to have poor pay and hard job.

Can't find the article anymore, but the farmer was saying how American unemployed may be interested initially, but once they get on the farm they complain.  Some just leave, others work for a bit then ditch.

The only ones who were willing to work these difficult back breaking beneath us entitled ones are the immigrants.

I guess time will tell if we get a change in mentality.

Hoping the article I read was a small sample size and a certain type of farming.

 

Grapes of Wrath... redux. post-credit bubble.

 

Barring this example... have you ever seen the running of the bulls? That'll clear up the streets of any unemployed ruffians. :|

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:40 | 2064742 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The are serfs to a ruling imperial elite. That's why it will take them longer to riot, if at all.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:53 | 2064767 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I actually wanted to write something against your statement but I have to admit Spain was quite late in leaving it's Fascist Age and could be one of the first to reenter it....

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 18:22 | 2065057 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

The first to re-enter it?  Whatever you're smoking, it's working.  If you understand Fascism, and I hope that you at least know the definition if nothing else, then you would know most of the Western world is already Fascist.. Fascism in its truest form, in fact. 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 05:44 | 2065237 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

This is not the way Europeans see it. Did the US or the UK experience fascism? No. What is happening to you should get a different name, perhaps MultiCorpImperialism or CEO-Oligarchy, or NeoCorpocraty, or just Kleptocracy, like in Greece. Fascism might become a *response* to this, in Greece, Italy and Spain. The differences are huge. If you live in it. So please don't be flabbergasted if Monti is killed by fascists, for example.

-----------

In a typical european fascist takeover, the national interests are defined differently from the current neo-liberal regime. Typically "foreign" financial interests are demonized, as all financial wizardry. Banks are the first line of the economy that has to conform to the regime's interests (does this sound familiar?) but the "free market" principles are thrown overboard. I know it sounds silly to US ears, fact is European Ideologies translate differently to the UK/US context.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 11:16 | 2066130 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

There is no free market in Europe or the USSA. Laws are written by the multinationals and their statist allies in order to crush smaller competitors and the ignorant masses. They've passed so many laws and regulations that we are all criminals, except the laws will be selectively enforced against the little people.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 14:01 | 2066493 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Amen.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 14:01 | 2066491 economics1996
economics1996's picture

The USA is fascist.  The difference between Germany 1933-45 and the USA 1946-present, is we win our wars and write our own history.  When we get our ass kicked by Germany-Russia-China, the history books will read a little differently.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 20:36 | 2065327 philipat
philipat's picture

"The are serfs to a ruling imperial elite. That's why it will take them longer to riot, if at all."

You mean the US?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:58 | 2064775 midtowng
midtowng's picture

No, austerity isn't the ONLY solution. There are other solutions, and the Spanish people are going to want to explore them soon.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:43 | 2064846 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Armed insurrection, beheading of the imperial elite and their political lackeys.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 12:37 | 2066251 mirac
mirac's picture

uh huh...a Ganhdi moment, would be the best option. but it looks like too far of a stretch now, 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:44 | 2064848 sushi
sushi's picture

Yup.

 

They could buy their labour statistics software from the same firm that supplies the USA. There would be significant upfront cost but the Spaniards would get their unemployment down to 7.5% within a couple of months.

If they also wanted to boost GDP, well GS has an app for that.

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:30 | 2064902 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

Yeah, don't worry soon part time will be the norm.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-case-for-a-21-hour-work-week.html

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:52 | 2064924 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

Obamacare mandates ALL employees - including part time - have health insurance.  My small biz has seen our monthly premiums double since Obamacare was passed.

We cannot afford (and are canceling) our health insurance and if we were to resort to a 21 hour work week the number of employees would force us into the mandatory size for business.

Meanwhile, McD's and Walmart won't have to pay insurance for ANYONE.

Morons, Ivory Tower non-productive and do-gooders have destroyed this country.

21 hour work weeks (and food stamps, free health care and the like) would only be one more plateau on our way to the third world.

Everything is screwed and their are no "fixes" left.  Cross your fingers and hope for the best, it is going to be a bumpy ride down.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:36 | 2064990 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

TeresaE

You are so spot on imo, many companies I know are in the same position, including us. There has been zero thought put into this problem. Unless the thought was to have unemployment sky rocket.

It just eye bleeding the rules these moron's pass that have never been involved in small business. They just don't understand that small to medium business is what drives our good paying middle so called class job's. Not only that, it is the productive employment, the actually worker's that are paying the wages for all the fed and state PAY CHECK'S and pension's.

With all the pressure of Bi-Flation on operation margin's of small business, this is really what we need at this point, complete idiot's they are that wonder why unemployment is so high.   

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 21:05 | 2065382 thomas pain
thomas pain's picture

at least obamacare doesn't bail out the financial miasma left over from the last 30 years of inept political reach arounds.  open your eyes beyond your myopic political opinion.  obamacare isn't monetarialy different than the last 8 years of "war" waged in the middle east, granted i do not agree whatsoever with this government legislated "heathcare" policy nonetheless. 

i suggest you start your financial education before referencing your political whining.  if americans knew how bad they were getting F'd in the A over the last three years, they wouldn't stop bombing the banks.  therefore, waste your energy on bank bombs, not politics.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 23:16 | 2065567 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

You give most thinking folks a pain of that I am sure..  No bailout in Bammycare, it is the worlds largest giveaway to the insurance and big pharma sectors, just shut up, please..

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 11:20 | 2066131 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

The politicians and bureaucrazy enable the corporate thieves. 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 21:23 | 2065410 RunWild
RunWild's picture

As a non-McD fast-food franchisee (pizza) and employer of more than 50 (200+), I can say anecdotally, that the impending doom and havoc that will be known as Obamacare, has not even BEGUN to be registered within our industry. I am constantly amazed at the overall apathetic response I get when I ask a fellow franchisee "what are you going to do?"

 

 

 

 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 11:21 | 2066132 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Apparently, you didn't give The Messiah enough money to receive a pardon from Obamacare

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:18 | 2064970 Shocker
Shocker's picture

We will call them Multi-Part Timers, or some other clever name.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:37 | 2064993 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Odious debt of nations found no longer being sovereign in anything but name ? EU recovery rate will be negative, spend to Dollars to retrieve a dime...

Austerity as in debtors prison will mean riots and more,
social programs to keep them in starvation as in IMF not so much ...globalists back to hades and the rest back to the tribe

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 08:08 | 2065971 Marco
Marco's picture

Austerity is the only solution to a trade deficit based sovereign debt crisis ... but that's completely orthogonal to socialism. You can shrink the pie and still redistribute. In fact that's what countries like this did in the past with devaluation, devaluation == austerity ... but they remained socialist regardless.

The difference between then and now is that devaluation is impossible and price/wage/tax stickiness makes economic adjustment a whole fuckton harder.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:25 | 2064709 stopcpdotcom
stopcpdotcom's picture

Mañana.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:31 | 2064717 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Southern Spain doesn't exactly revere 'work'. Why would they? Those waiting for riots, keep waiting cause it ain't happening unless the Catalans want out or Barca loses to some chump...

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 11:22 | 2066135 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Wait until the government's credit line is cut. No more welfare means no more food. 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:34 | 2064718 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Right after they finish their siestas....

But in the end it will turn into a civil war and not just riots.
Youth unemployment is near 76%, talk about broken dreams....
The next generation is so fucked over there that the only thing to hold on to is anger.
And as the spanish also had a extreme large grey secotr, which is,virtually gone now, those numbers in reallity are still way worse!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:44 | 2064749 uno
uno's picture

newt gingrich says they should get a job right after taking a shower, 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:51 | 2064763 Kayman
Kayman's picture

I think Newt ought to have a golden shower.

 And I doubt that his lilly white manicured thieving hands have ever seen real work.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:04 | 2064780 uno
uno's picture

sadly him and freddie mac took a golden shower on us:

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich was paid between $1.6 and $1.8 million in consulting fees by Freddie Mac according to officials within the organization, Bloomberg reports.

What, exactly, Gingrich did for Freddie Mac during the eight years he worked with them is the subject of dispute.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/11/16/gingrich-reportedly-paid-between-1-6-and-1-8-million-by-freddie-mac/#ixzz1jSdSfsuI

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:25 | 2064818 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> Newt ought to have a golden shower.

Sounds like a job for an elite Marine sniper team. Best trained military in the world.  Right on target and not one drop wasted.  ooorah

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:39 | 2064840 Canaduh
Canaduh's picture

I'd expect nothing less from a country whose 2 top selling beers are 'Light'.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:23 | 2064887 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Send the marines.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:48 | 2064757 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Doubt it. As I noted, their dreams are all being fulfilled by Barca/Real derby's just as in the UK. Seeing as how there is no way these games cease, you won't have much of a bust up.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:46 | 2065000 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You always deserve a +1

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 12:51 | 2066285 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Another nonsense from SD...

The other day it was said right here (TD) that youth unemployment in Spain is 45%.

Not that 45% is great news, but 76% is plain stoopid.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:43 | 2064729 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

they are staging a lot of protests - btw "rioting" in Europe is something different from what is understood in the US

though there are some caveats:

negative: juvenile disoccupation is 40% - which is a catastrophe

positive: the numbers are quite uncooked, the submerged economy is huge, the family customs are towards bigger extended families who hold together, so if 3-5 work and 2-3 don't it's not immediately a disaster

-----------

LOL "And since Spain is a country of the Keynesian persuasion" double LOL! And the country which is not of the Keynesian persuation is??? Germany? Switzerland? Norway? "we can only assume the number includes a whole bunch of meaningless birth/death and seasonal adjustments" Yes, it is known that the Spanish numbers are counted in a way to inflate them upwards - blame socialist state workers...

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:47 | 2064851 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Expensive housing economies won't contract.

California still had tons of adults living with parents before the recession hit. Same thing in New York and Florida. All those places will undergo drastic relationship changeups as they all try to get together with people to make life livable. After the downturn in florida and california people were probably fucking 10 people a month trying to find a hookup that would make life possible.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 21:50 | 2065448 Joke Heros
Joke Heros's picture

 

 

Agreed. Here in so CA, home builders are adapting to that strategy, by designing new homes to be "multi-generational."

These homebuilders see the current trend of 20/30/40 somethings moving back in with the parents after losing their homes, jobs, etc. So the new homes being built are still giant McMansions, and are priced just as high, but are designed to make multi-generational living more comfortable. What a joke. Which means they squish as many homes and as many people as they can into one tract of land, with no place to park, and where you can reach out your window and touch your neighbors house. It's touted as progress and innovation.

In the meantime, there are shitloads of empty existing homes and because no one wants home prices to sink to appropriate levels based on the areas average income, they sit empty as everyone thinks the housing market is going to recover soon and they can start raking in the profits again.

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 06:03 | 2065918 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

this is the point where I get incensed. from the Continental European experience of the last 200 years, for any economy it's a boon to have a highly mobile workforce which can move near the job cheaply. in core parts of Europe it's done by a rental market that works. when 50% or more of the households rent - and renting is not silly when the owning-yourself-market is not insanely oversubsidized - then you have young families starting a new life without the burden of having to buy, sell, or be in debt at all. This is one reason why the southern europeans have more problems with mobility vs the northeners (UK/Ireland excluded).

now the US faces the dilemma of squatters living for free in what can only be seen as de facto US property vs. letting them be evicted and worsening the house market. the buildup of a rental market would be an economic (but Pete forbid, not a politically popular one!) solution

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 10:00 | 2066056 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree, BUT only if EVERYONE with cash is allowed to participate.  As I and others have posted already, the banks are trying to lobby washington so that the small money (individual investors who SAVED) can not play.  This is BULLSHIT.  If responsible behavior is continually punished and irresponsible behavior rewarded, the only outcome will be a bloody revolution.  History shows this over and over.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:54 | 2065008 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

I had the same thought first away. Why state double digit numbers if everyone else cuts their numbers by more than half ? Begging for assistance ! PIG's numbers tend to get closer to the true figure, but than again who has ever
really worked hard despite of a good climate most of the year ? Regionally adjusted they still should have little to no unemployment so all those official figures mean they want to be paid all the more for doing even less...:-)

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:53 | 2064761 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

careful what you ask for: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_2XyoxK-uE&feature=player_detailpage

the phrase "scarred by recession and defeat in a World War" stood out to me I might add.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:58 | 2064772 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

what's astronomical is that true rate of UnN is much greater than 23%!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:17 | 2064800 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

When taxes go up and the new gov discovers how badly the books were cooked, demanding higher taxes and/or a bigger bailout.

Greek crisis started when the previous gov got kicked and the new one "discovered" the cooked books. 

 

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2064910 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Do they get unemployment benefits in Spain? As in "Bama Bucks" here in the USa! What the hell do these people do for money in Spain?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:00 | 2064941 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

""As in "Bama Bucks" here....""

What in the hades do the national champion Crimson Tide have anything to do with this????????

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 00:36 | 2065691 vh070
vh070's picture

Work in mining the underground economy.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:57 | 2064937 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Why aren't they rioting like their European friends?"

It's too damn HOT.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:19 | 2064971 Banksters
Banksters's picture

It is only a recession.   Count on a 2nd half recovery. 

Snicker.  

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 23:13 | 2065559 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

I was there during the summer (Barcelona ) for the WPT ( world poker tour) and it sure looked like they were doing well. (Even the homeless people had pressed pants!) There must be one hell of an underground economy going on because I saw nothing that looked like 23% unemployment.  That is why there is no rioting going on....they have money!

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 04:30 | 2068156 Padrone
Padrone's picture

A significant part of the jobless population works tax free (unregulated), thats the reason things havent spun out of control sofar.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:24 | 2064707 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

necesitan aprender a mentir como los Americanos, tu sabes?

Aqui hay muy poco desempleo

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:26 | 2064710 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

There but for the grace of God and I fear the supreme being has once again had enough.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:29 | 2064711 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Temptation to leave Euro, devalue currency to 90% will simply overwhelm all other considerations. Especially since Merkel said today that all countries really must push their austerity measures to the max. Check mate. 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:45 | 2064751 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

whose temptations and when? remember that "the peoples" are not that idiotic, if the gov wants out, they know it's for an inflationary feast

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:58 | 2064773 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

what "inflationary feast"? you've just been laughing about all the "free labor" coming into Spain. It has just been reported in the Wall Street Journal "Fixing a housing bust by building more houses." This is DEFLATIONARY. If i'm up to my eyeballs in Spanish real estate debt...i'd be a little worried, yes? once the governments natinoalise the banks...as they must...they still can't print euros...nor more importantly "leave the euro land." to leave...your economy would have to be HUGE...and have it be "in the interest of leaving." Only France by my...albeit DEAD...reckoning.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:12 | 2064788 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

1. I'm not laughing at the "free" labour coming into Spain, it's a shameless exploitation for which they have laws they don't enforce, same as the migrant workers from Mexico for the US harvests

2. I have no clue what you are getting to - fact is it's too early for any eurozone gov (except Greece) to go and tell the people that they have to exit the eurozone. the floating of any new currency at this stage of the currency devalueation feast would be a joke.

3. I definitely think that there is some huge cultural difference in opinion in the US and in the EZ in what really happens when you nationalize a bank - we had several waves of nationalization of banks in the last hundreds of years - it happenz, bitchez

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:42 | 2064844 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

It costs a lot of money to run a farm, and that money usually comes from a line of credit, which no longer exists in much of Spain. I find myself wondering how many Spanish farmers are going to call it quits this year simply because they haven't got the cash or the credit to plant. I know that my friends in Spain in the agriculture sector are all discussing this very seriously. This would mean no jobs for temp workers from North Africa, no jobs for Spanish farm workers, and no jobs in ag-related businesses, plus a lot less and more expensive food on Spanish tables, which because of unemployment a lot of people aren't going to be able to afford anyway. This has the makings of a civil war, IMO. And not just in Spain. Farmers all over Europe are being squeezed very hard, and I believe that many are just about to quit. This isn't being discussed among all the focus on high-flying finance, but at the root of everything society depends on lies the farm, and when the farmer can no longer produce food, the game is over.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:46 | 2064916 Beastmanager
Beastmanager's picture

Global famine and then war. For the spanish civil war, they prefer to fight each other.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:54 | 2064927 reload
reload's picture

Scary picture you paint, food in non tourist towns and Market stalls spiked in price notably this summer. I am talking locally grown staples, fruit, vegetables even bread. Casting my mind back, there may have been less selection and lower stock levels. But it's hard to say, choice can depend on time of day, most food markets are winding down by late morning. It did seem less vibrant though and prices were steeply up.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:09 | 2064952 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

You have nailed it reload. Now please consider - while the prices at local non-tourist markets are definitely rising, and the selection is getting smaller, and the food runs out more quickly as the day goes on, the farmers supplying these markets are by and large the local farmers who, while they are affected by economic conditions, are generally not as dependent upon credit as the large farmers who supply most of the food for the cities. These are the farmers I was talking about - the large farmers who plant hundreds, even thousands of hectares, and who live or die on agricultural credit. These are the farmers who are talking about walking away because they will have no other choice. Without credit they have absolutely no way of buying seed or fertilizer, or feed for their animals, and then planting, cultivating, harvesting or shipping. Small local farmers who work a hectare or two with their own and their family's labor, or who raise a few pigs or chickens, are being pinched, but they will always be able to make do and will always be able to sell what they grow. It is the large farms that are threatened by this economic collapse - because that is exactly what it is - and my bet is that by next summer, or next fall at the latest, there will be a whole lot less food available in the cities, and there will be rationing, and there will be civil unrest - to put it mildly. And this will not stop with Spain - the situation is roughly the same in much of Europe, and the US is not exempt from the same scenario. Watch the stats on acres being planted come March - May and you'll get a pretty good idea of what is coming.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:31 | 2064985 kito
kito's picture

Couple that with the natural reduction of farmers due to retirement. Jim Rogers, who is bullish on agri prices, cites the average age of farmers in their 50s. Certainly won't help........

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 13:33 | 2066404 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Yeah, and how about coupling that with the record unemployment? Gee...

Theory from the parent post is just as nonsensical as the idea that there aren't enough people to work the land.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 23:37 | 2065600 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

 

At last, some sane commentary. 

After the next "election" is over, the mask will be dropped, and bread lines will become an immediate staple of (Euro)American life. At that point, if you don't have access to your own 'daily bread,' and the means to defend it, all this talk about 'going Galt' is going to be pretty cheap.

Bureaucratic regulation of every part of your life, and the terror apparatus to enforce it will be the norm in every part of the Euromerika prison zone. They'll keep dangling RP in the game to make everybody just that little bit more hopeful and less wise to the real deal until it's too late to make a move.

No food, no freedom.  North Koreans are way ahead of the curve when it comes to figuring out the basics about life. It's getting late amigos.

"If it is nothingness that awaits us, let us make an injustice of it; let us fight against destiny, even though without hope of victory." Miguel de Unamuno.
 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 08:40 | 2065995 Marco
Marco's picture

Hmm? That's not what's happening at all. In a complete collapse they are going to be fucked as well of course, but for the moment averaged across the EU farmers are doing quite well and farm land is seen as a solid investment in most countries (ie. no trouble getting mortgaged lines of credit). Spain is a little special though since they have a harder time benefitting from global grain price increases, they don't have the soil for that.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/eu-farm-income-per-worker-rises...

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 11:23 | 2066136 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

You are reading the data you use to support your case through the eyes of a banker, not a producer.  The increase in farm income per worker is due to higher grain prices, and while that may seem to signal a short term increase in farm income, that increase will be entirely nullified by increased costs with oil being the primary indicator  through every link in the chain...from fertilizer to pest control to packaging to transportation....

of course there will be "no trouble getting mortgaged lines of credit"- that's exactly how predatory capitalism works...extend credit and induce market collapse....after a few years you end up owning a brand like Chateau Lafite Rothschild, and get to call yurself Baron Barracuda, or Le Gran Duc de Puke or whatever.

  Like the man said, that's why a lot of guys are willing to call it a day...after long enough in the game, you can smell a storm brewin. 

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 13:45 | 2066441 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

You're right. The EU subsidizes ag like crazy.

I am willing to bet those crap predictions will not materialize.

Farmers are best off in the EU!

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 15:02 | 2066632 piceridu
piceridu's picture

In Sicily, oranges rot on trees. Nobody to pick them....Italians won't pick them + socialist wage laws. As in California, "whites" won't work fields. Why pick Oranges in your back forty when you can import them from Tunisia for one third the cost?  This will change but not until bellies are on E and young adults are forced off their parent's teet. Probably within 5 years or so, Italy will have to revert back to life in the forty's just to survive.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:00 | 2064776 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

All club med and east euro peripherals will watch as other collapsing economies not part of any fiscal union devalue their currency. Argentina is a test case. But others will follow. It's happened so many times before. Keep in mind what these economies usually make their money on. They won't be able to tolerate being shut down while their competitors run away with it

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:28 | 2064716 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Andalucia is amazing. Forget work, who works anymore?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:39 | 2064732 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Bring back the peseta and lazy afternoons on the Costa del Sol.

Vodka y Kas con hielo, por favor.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:38 | 2064735 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

I could live a good life in a Spanish flamenco bar.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:31 | 2064720 paulbain
paulbain's picture

Tyler Durden wrote:

==============================

Q4 Spanish Unemployment Soars By Most Since Lehman, Hits "Astronomical" 23.3%

==========================

Uhm, according to ShadowStats, Tyler, the unemployment rate in the USA has been about 23% for months. This ain't news.

-- Paul D. Bain

paubain@pobox.com

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:32 | 2064722 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

This is their official number. The US official number is 8.5%

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:41 | 2064734 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

BLS lies a lot.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:21 | 2064810 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

No it doesnt. 

 

It estimates. 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 19:22 | 2065166 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You're both right. First it estimates, then it lies about its estimates.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:53 | 2064770 ZeroSpread
ZeroSpread's picture

Tyler, one needs to be *skilled* to be able to report 8.5 for what is 23. It is this skill that has led Europe into believing they are off worse for the time being. It requires true long term planning to lead others in a GSian way to invest on the other side of the trade and it is the skill that will make the other damn bastard go and die for his country (financially or in absolute terms).

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:15 | 2064796 uno
uno's picture

MSM says over 90% of Americans are working.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 22:34 | 2065517 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

And conveniently leave out the Labor Force Participation Rate.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

 

Bullish!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:24 | 2064816 The Reich
The Reich's picture

Tyler!

 

Same here in Germany: 6.6% official unemployment rate in Dec11, but when you include all the bunch that have been excluded by tricky statistical definitions you get a number  of threefold (!) size.

That's roughly 20%.

 

I wonder if that's enough for a tripple downgrade.  

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:31 | 2064827 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yes. Here we all are, back to the conditions last seen in the 1970s and on the way perhaps to the 1930s. Difference between now and 1930s is we have a social safety net already in place which is avoiding starvation, visible soup lines and huge "Hooverville" cities near garbage dumps, and epidemics. Some of those programs keep a certain amount of hope alive and avoids the immediate despair which was felt without. 

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:37 | 2064836 uno
uno's picture

Media will show the homeless when it's in their corporate interest, just look at the lack of coverage of OWS.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:55 | 2064858 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Hooverville or bust!  Election 2012 campaign slogan?

Sounds kind of catchy.

..'but I can't tell which party it is most appropriate for.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:35 | 2064989 kito
kito's picture

With rajoy almost flaunting this number, my spidey senses tell me they will use it to justify some very drastic....and ugly........action.....

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:48 | 2065001 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tylers/ the actual # is higher as the 18.7346759 us " under- employed" rate?  I'll never second guess you. Cordially

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:32 | 2064724 Broker NotBroke
Broker NotBroke's picture

They'll find new ways to kick the can. We can't have a euro zone breakup, don't they know it's an election year in the US? The fed can keep bailing them out in secret, robbing broke Peter to pay... broke Peter.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:40 | 2064738 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Honeyville has a 20% off sale for the preppers out there.  Promo Code 2012.

http://store.honeyvillegrain.com/

Sooner or later shit is going to hit the fan.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:19 | 2064805 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Thanks for the tip. I will be ordering some of that almond flour right after I donate to the Ron Paul 2012 money bomb.  If RP wins I will donate big time to ZH. 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2064909 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

Donate now, is there any other place on the net that gives you the REAL news?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2064905 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

"Sooner or later shit is going to hit the fan."

When has that not been the case?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2065530 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

When you use the toilet?  Or the porta-potty, like in Alabama, as seen here at the 14 min mark?

http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/episode-225-max-keiser/

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:41 | 2064743 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

We shall refer to it henceforth as sPAIN.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:53 | 2064768 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Correction...SPaiN

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:06 | 2064785 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

SpaIN?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:32 | 2064828 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Spin: Competition is a sin.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:47 | 2064852 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

The pain in Spain falls mainly on - everyone.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 23:10 | 2065555 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

NO ONE expects the Spanish Illiquidity!

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 00:06 | 2065644 non_anon
non_anon's picture

how about a pile of steaming shit?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:43 | 2064748 oogs66
oogs66's picture

It is hard to think of many great Spanish companies - banks, telco, and state natural resource companies don't count.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:05 | 2064783 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Conquistador Corp.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:16 | 2064798 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Does Seat count? Never drove one, but i've heard all new 2012 models come with free tapas.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:59 | 2065016 ebear
ebear's picture

Spain is very big in machine tools and shipbuilding.  If you aren't in those trades, you won't recognize the names.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:45 | 2064750 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

When there is no work and the work that is offered pays peanuts because of supply and demand in the workplace with technology encroaching and eliminating "jobs", what recourse do those unemployed have?

Some may be angry, frustrated, hungry and/or bored.

This will be a breeding ground for social revolution.......

Methinks it is world wide as production capacity easily dwarfs our ability to consume what is manufactured.  In short, there will never be enough jobs.

Knowing that, maybe we should go back to the one worker household, pay the worker a wage he or she can support a family with and take it from there.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:11 | 2064790 Kayman
Kayman's picture

cherry picker

with technology encroaching and eliminating "jobs",

"Technology" eliminating jobs is a red herring.  Why does China have exponential job growth ?  Cheap labor and free access to the American market.

So long as the U.S. government doesn't give a shit about Chinese pollution, working standards, and subsidies, jobs will exit this country.  Technology is another political talking point.  Just listen to China's man Hunstman.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:46 | 2064753 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

"Economist have warned that Spain may be back in recession"   Who are these economist?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:13 | 2064960 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

They are the retarded cousins of Captain Obvious.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:47 | 2064754 Debugas
Debugas's picture

why work at all ? The whole technological progress is aimed at freeing us from work

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:14 | 2064794 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Debugas

I will take your comment as tongue-in-cheek.

When you think about it, once we invented the wheel, jobs were doomed.

/sarc on/sarc off ?

Sun, 01/15/2012 - 22:11 | 2067636 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

A huge reason why economies will fail.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:48 | 2064756 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

This is technically depression levels.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:51 | 2064762 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

If you were in NY then, yes, but Valencia has beaches and bitches.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:55 | 2064771 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

...and plenty of good booze and the good food... yeah...

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 16:12 | 2064870 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Yup. Was in Barcelona 2x last year and everything is busy as ever there. Granted, tourism is a lot more prevalent there than in Madrid, but that Spanish coastline really is something to admire. Didn't mind the cheap food and relatively inexpensive (compared to Fra and Ita coastlines) real estate.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:50 | 2064759 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The good news is the market has priced this in. The next really bad set of news? Yup priced in. Short interest at recent lows? (cue U2 It's a beautiful day) Maybe but everyone is just so damn negative so if we could just get some positive sentiment imagine what that would do for the markets!!!!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:21 | 2064811 Kayman
Kayman's picture

fonzannoon

For the country, a $2 trillion dollar budget and trade deficit annually and growing.  This up against a nominal 2% GDP growth meaning $300 billion annually. Negative return on investment of  ($1.7) trillion or -14% compounded annually. Do the math.

 Makes a guy want to get optimistic about what ?

You can only deal with your personal situation.  If you think churning, skimming and printing makes a great country then get happy feet.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:09 | 2064955 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kayman my apologies. It was all sarcasm.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 14:52 | 2064766 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Yes but according to HuffPo, our economy is improving.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:05 | 2064781 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Huh? HuffPo is skeptical. It's the mainstream media that has embraced the "recovery".

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:26 | 2064819 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

puff_Ho sez t'ain't so

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:39 | 2064838 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

HuffPo says: "We'll Hufff! And we'll Pufff! And we'll Blow your unemployment problem away!" 

"We ain't got no prolems in dis here utopia!"

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 17:42 | 2064996 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I hear she's playing the female joker in the next batman movie...

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:04 | 2064782 brunoaa
brunoaa's picture

I think that in the coming years we will see a polarization of the European political life not only on the extreme right and but also on the extreme left.

The sacrifices that will be necessary to end the current crisis are so big that to accept them, people will want a change of paradigm.

In the end I think that we will see the emergence of various nationalist/protectionist leftish to extreme leftish governments which will appear to offer some kind of collective protection (but not after strong disturbance/fights with the extreme right).

This will be especially true in southern Europe : Spain, Italy but also France.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 18:34 | 2065079 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

They might even lean off to the far but not yet extreme left, as in national socialism. They have been there before,
or for the uninitiated : the brown, red or green variety of socialism.

Italy had her aesthetic version back than, it won't work this time, even though all that symbolism still cuts..,.

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:28 | 2064821 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Is that spike counting the underemployed, or do we have that to look forward to? As if it matters , when the " Tidey Bowl Man" , is your best friend!

 

 

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:31 | 2064826 Kick_the_Kan
Kick_the_Kan's picture

pretty tragic really....what will happen when governments in Europe/US start running out of unemployment cheques or when the purchasing power of each cheque gets eroded away?

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:36 | 2064835 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"And since Spain is a country of the Keynesian persuasion, we can only assume the number includes a whole bunch of meaningless birth/death and seasonal adjustments, but we'll leave it at that."

This is why I love ZH.  ZH hits hard and tells it like it is.

Viva la ZH!

Sat, 01/14/2012 - 15:41 | 2064842 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Viva ZH, though it was better to leave at that
For at time, those numbers were overreported, sane as the number of olive trees

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!