Q&A On Holiday Shopping

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Wed, 11/23/2011 - 22:48 | 1909253 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

i think this is the end the last season......no reason to send anything else over from overseas we are broke

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 22:57 | 1909274 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Yup, no reason to fight crowds. Stuff will stay cheap this year.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:22 | 1909324 erg
erg's picture

No Youtube clips of people being trampled by the catatonic herd hurtling toward the next shiny bauble?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:49 | 1909379 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Uh, they will still be there.  You should not.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:56 | 1909393 erg
erg's picture

Check. Avoid the great slavering masses.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 10:35 | 1910475 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Check. Avoid the great slavering masses.

America, sadly, has sold out her traditions of family and home to hang out at a five and dime tonight.  Sad.  Very sad.  One good thing about an economic depression is that it might re-focus Americans (and others) on the important things in life.


Thu, 11/24/2011 - 10:29 | 1910452 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Cheesy Bastard

Yup, no reason to fight crowds. Stuff will stay cheap this year.

I have this sentiment as well.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 22:53 | 1909263 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Let's get one thing straight: Shopping will be poor. Retail stocks will remain richly valued. 

I think even the most casual observers have figured out the game by this point. And fewer and fewer are fooled. The stok market is now the equivalent of what Pravda was at the end of the Soviet Union, an official disinformation agency

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 22:59 | 1909277 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Caviar Emptor

shopping will be poor .. or will the poor be shopping ?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:12 | 1909302 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Unfortunately, the lower 50% prefer symbolism over substance. Somehow psychologically, they want to believe that everything is gonna be okay.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:22 | 1909321 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

-According to ICSC: Retailers experienced their first sales decline in over 3 weeks as sales dipped by 0.9 percent for the week ending Nov 19 <---close to holiday shopping

-Oct Personal spending reported today slowed to +0.1% from 0.6% MoM

-Inventory investment in Q3GDP revision,  ahead of holiday season was much weaker than expected (producers not optimistic)

-I don't need to tell you about employment, real median incomes and CPI . PLus the 99weekers are now exceeding the limit and falling off, exhausting their stimulus-driven spending. 

So that leaves way less meat on the bones. The optimism of the last 2 years is vaporizing

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 06:38 | 1910143 Postal
Postal's picture

I work at a box retailer and we've had to cancel several trucks from the warehouse because the merchandise isn't moving. The old hands say it will still be ugly (as in human behavior during black Friday) and that we don't have the sales of previous years.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 09:00 | 1910277 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Shopping should be poor.  But let's keep in mind the denial mindset that dug this hole in the first place: 

Things will get better.  I don't have the money now, but hey, the rising tide is around the bend, and I will be rescued.  Besides, all these other people are out here buying, so things can't be that bad...plus, this nice woman is waving an extra 15% savings if I sign up for the store credit card today.

This season should be down 10% or more from last year, but it will be far better than that. 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 22:58 | 1909275 chump666
chump666's picture

There is nothing to buy, no new Apple products, no new tech stuff, nothing.  It will be a flop.  ZH is right,  do what Goldman is going do, sell the rallies.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 06:14 | 1910123 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

But, but, but, if we don't load up on useless trinkets, "the terrrrrrists win!"

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 10:43 | 1910498 Cursive
Cursive's picture


There is nothing to buy, no new Apple products, no new tech stuff, nothing.  It will be a flop.

This is a consequence of the depression.  Companies have cut back on budgets or closed shop, so fewer innovations and new products appear.  Some observers confuse the lack of supply as the cause, but it's really a lack of demand and the subsequent deleveraging that begins this process.  Regardless, merchandise becomes harder to find or disappears altogether.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:02 | 1909283 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

50 to 60 %  off is the new everyday norm .. China won that race to the bottom

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:08 | 1909296 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Absolutely could not believe that the PPT didn't goose the market in the last hour today. Never thought TPTB would let the last trading day before Black Friday end down. Really unexpected.

BTW, this will be the 2nd year in a row that I'll be giving one-ounce silver rounds for Christmas.

Not interested in being a stimulus program for China.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:28 | 1909336 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Not interested in being a stimulus program for China

Well said . and I agree silver rounds are a great gift ..



Thu, 11/24/2011 - 10:46 | 1910510 ArdentArgent
ArdentArgent's picture

Me too.  The nieces and nephews will be getting one ounce silver each this Christmas.  Started this three years ago.  Same for birthdays.  Why buy Chinese crap that they don't need or want?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:11 | 1909299 SHEEPFUKKER

If the Mayans are correct, which, at this point, who can argue that they definitely won't be, perhaps the smartest people are the ones without jobs and spending their very last pennies. 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:44 | 1909366 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

The Mayans. Their calendar will reset to day one the day after it ends. The way they planned it to.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 00:04 | 1909421 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

I know my spending will be down 100%. And, knowing that I take away from this crooked market and some rich shareholder's take equals priceless feeling!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:14 | 1909306 kito
kito's picture

In the land of buy- sexuals, shopping is the ultimate aphrodisiac

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:42 | 1909360 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Even shopaholics get a hangover. There's a fundamental shift going on. People like you and me want the truth. We're not alone. 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:14 | 1909307 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"what is the holiday season"? And they wonder why the financial district of New York obliterated itself in 2008 only to be followed up by MF Global just three short years later. God is sick and tired of the phucking bullshit. "that's what the holiday season is." Of course "home by Christmas" becoming "in Syria" seems a little rich. Should we be surprised?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:15 | 1909310 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

just got back from an upscale mall.......granted it was the day before thanksgiving, so might not be best observation day, however the mall was empty ......i was shocked how many stores had ZERO customers in them......then when i went up to foodcourt, i was amazed that WENDYS has 10-1 ratio of people waitingin line to order vs. all the other fast foods COMBINED...........



Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:47 | 1909371 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The restaurants and mall around here have had significantly less business (compared to the last couple of years) for about 6 months now. I wouldn't trust a FED stat if my life depended on it. I'll use my own eyes thanks.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 01:54 | 1909724 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

The mall here has 9 stores open.  Two are consignment, a JCPenny's, a Dunham's, a local jam shop, and 18 empty stalls.  Life is good.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:27 | 2250026 l.hauri
l.hauri's picture

I know what you mean. I have the same opinion. yachts turkey

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:51 | 1909381 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Wendys re-did their burgers,.,,,,,much improved. a good value if you eat that stuff. Give the kids a Morgan doller in the stocking. That is even better value.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:26 | 1909332 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"The US consumer looks mixed..."

jeeeez! everything looks mixed!

sleet storm

followed by sheet storm;  ho, ho, ho!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:33 | 1909343 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The mood of the country, and the world, has gotten grumpy. It's getting so a yuppie can't fully express her aspirationalism or his manifest shopping destiny anymore. We need stimulus!

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:37 | 1909352 Mark123
Mark123's picture

If you stripped out the sales due to increased sub-prime credit cards and auto loans there would be much less spending.  41% of all car loans are now subprime....really healthy (per Edmunds). 

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:43 | 1909364 chump666
chump666's picture

Asia bull trap is in, now sucking in the suckers.   On wires some BoJ butnut is getting ready for a EZ meltdown. 

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa on Thursday stressed the need for Japan to prepare against being roiled by possible major financial turmoil stemming from Europe's sovereign debt crisis, according to government officials.


Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:45 | 1909368 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

"if there is a way to take the other side of the bet (or do what GS is doing and not its clients) that is probably not such a bad idea."

If Goldman makes money doing the opposite of what it recommends its clients do, then does that mean its clients lose money?

And if so, how does Goldman retain clients? What's going on here?

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:55 | 1909385 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

From the Watergate Investigation, we learned to follow the money. Today's W$J reported that magazine ads were way down because advertisers thought they weren't getting any bang for their buck.

So if you follow the smart money, they aren't spending very much money on known ROI channels.... Is that because so much less money is being spent, per their own "good info"? These managers see live couponing and UPC check-out data feeds, the consumer in the check-out line in real time.

Take their lead to the bank. Ad managers like  those from P&G and Kraft and major ad agencies are not clueless. They know their target markets and they are getting out of Dodge. The recession is baked in.

Wed, 11/23/2011 - 23:54 | 1909388 Space Potato
Space Potato's picture

Are these people really from the same planet? It's like taking bets on the trajectory of migratory birds. Whoops! I think that's already a bet.  



Love it!

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 00:07 | 1909427 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

How many shopping days last holiday season? How many this?

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 00:19 | 1909472 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

2010 = 29
2011 = 30

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 10:54 | 1910537 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Spastica Rex / SilverIsKing

Good point.  This makes a big difference in yoy comparisons.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 00:20 | 1909477 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Every room in my house has a 55" screen in it, I think the problem with the economy is that everyone already has everything they want.


100 million people squating in foreclosed homes for free, with all the walls covered in flat panels.


Hell I haven't payed my water bill in a year and I still have water.


Fuck um all, I don't get why anyone really pays their bills anymore , the entire financial/monetary system is a scam anyway and its falling apart, I see no point in paying off anything, if they want all this crap they can have it, I got bored of it anyway.

Fri, 11/25/2011 - 05:26 | 1912391 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I don't get why anyone really pays their bills anymore.

Ya gotta pay that shit they'll turn off and you'll miss. 

Not much reason to pay today for that thing you bought a year ago, tho.  Nobody wants that thing anymore.  You fucked up.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 00:20 | 1909481 prains
prains's picture

americans need to shop like they need another burger or another boob job, when does the gluttony end?

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 00:23 | 1909494 Messianic
Messianic's picture

Obviously, McRibs, Ipads and Debt = happiness.


Or so the bankers tell me.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 01:04 | 1909599 eaglefalcon
eaglefalcon's picture

if i buy two gold coins this friday, does that count for holiday shopping?  or that's just investment?  or both 

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 01:51 | 1909716 GiantVampireSqu...
GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

You forgot to indicate the 2011 recession.  Oh wait it's not official yet.  Gotta admit it fits well with fig1.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 02:07 | 1909761 1a2b3c4d
1a2b3c4d's picture

I love Q & A formats. They allow you to ask yourself softball, fat pitch questions, and hit home runs with ease and aplomb.

Control the questions asked = control the information dolled out.

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 02:56 | 1909879 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

Calls for the Tepper play ...


If the shopping is weak, the Bernank will twistqueeze3


If it is strong, the WealthEffect continues.


Balls to the wall buying either way!

Thu, 11/24/2011 - 04:54 | 1910024 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

USD selling pressure continues and the prospect of an equity xmas rally and EURUSD bullish spike returns.


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