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QE3 ON: Goldman Lowers Global Government Bond Forecasts Following 2012 US GDP Cut To 2.1%, Repeats "QE3 Is Part Of Baseline Estimates"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For those wondering why gold just surged by about $20 dollars, and why Gartman's cab driver once again proves to be far more astute than his passenger, we bring to your attention  a report just released by Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli which is appropriately titled "The Price of Slower Growth" - appropriately, because in it Goldman slashes the firm's outlook on global policy rates across the board, slashes to cut its 10 Year bond yield outlook from 3.75% to 2.75% in 2011 and from 4.25% to 3.50%, slashes 2012 US GDP from 3.0% to 2.10%, and once again makes it all too clear that QE3 is coming, and not only coming but is already priced in (to the tune of about $300-400 billion): "In previous work, we have estimated that every US$1trn in purchases, if maintained, decreases 10-yr Treasury yields by 25bp-50bp. If our subjective assessment that market participants now assign a greater-than-even chance of ‘QE3’ is correct, and considering that the expected ‘unsterilized’ size of these purchases is in the region of US$600-800bn, this would equate to as much as 20bp being already ‘in the price’. Clearly, these magnitudes are unobservable, and thus subject to great uncertainty. Nevertheless, our calculations would suggest that the bond market is already discounting a mild recession and the chance of a Fed reaction to it." Translation (and this is nothing new to ZH readers): Bill Dudley has his marching orders from Jan Hatzius: GS now sees deflation as the broader risk, and anything and everything must be done to make sure Wall Street has another record bonus season round, pardon, deflation must be halted.

Updated Goldman GDP forecast table:

And where GS sees 10 Year rates:

Full note from Goldman Sachs:

The Price Of Slower Growth

On the back of the downgrade to our growth forecasts, published on August 5, we have revised lower our 10-yr bond yield projections across the board. Nevertheless, we find that intermediate yields are very depressed, particularly in the US, even taking into account our new macro projections. This indicates that there is now a substantial ‘tail risk’ discounted in high-quality sovereign bonds, alongside expectations of further asset purchases by the Fed. Developments in Euro-zone bond markets have been momentous over the past month. In line with our expectations, bond prices in Greece, Ireland and Portugal have increased from distressed levels following a substantial modification to official-sector loans. Italian and Spanish bond yields remain elevated relative to Germany’s and France’s. The introduction of domestic fiscal and structural policies, important steps towards unconditional ‘risk-sharing’ among EMU members (agreed on July 21), and open market interventions by the ECB should all help underpin the attractive valuations of both BTPs and Bonos.

A Precipitous Rally

After a relatively lacklustre first half of the year, returns on intermediate maturity government bonds in the advanced economies have risen since the start of the third quarter, and particularly going into the month of August. The ‘winners’ have been those markets most sensitive to cyclical swings (7-10-yr US Treasuries have returned almost 7% non-annualized since the end of June, with yields falling 50bp since the start of this month; returns in the UK and Australia have been commensurately high). By contrast, returns on traditional ‘safe havens’ have been mixed: Swiss bonds have risen strongly, but Japan’s have moved sideways in local currency terms. The performance of bonds issued by EMU states has diverged significantly, although this was partly reversed by the ECB’s resumption of direct purchases.

An unusual combination of interconnected economic and political factors has driven the rally, some of which are exceptional in nature:

First and foremost, these moves have come against a backdrop of a substantial decline in growth expectations, following a disappointing set of data, particularly in the US. To be fair, the growth data have been less uniformly bad over the past two weeks, as captured by our US Current Activity Indicator. Thus, the recent sharp price action in equities and bonds has probably more to do with a focus on ‘tail risks’ in an anaemic US growth environment, concerns about a broader global growth slowdown (as reflected in the sharp moves in global indices and cyclical currencies) and positioning considerations, rather than outright weakness in the incoming data.

 

Second, the macro backdrop and the tightening in US financial conditions that it caused precipitated a further round of policy easing by the Fed. The central bank has indicated that its current economic forecasts warrant policy rates remaining close to zero for at least another two years and that it stands ready to expand its balance sheet further if needed. We have built a third round of long-term asset purchases (‘QE3’) into our baseline (see US Daily: For More Easing, Will Fed Go Big or Go Long?, August 15, 2011), although that is, of course, contingent on sub-trend growth in the near term. Judging from our client interactions, and recent investor surveys (e.g., CNBC/Liesman), this is now seen as the most likely scenario, although it is far from being a universally held view.

 

Third, ‘safe-haven’ flows originating from tensions in Euro-zone sovereign markets have increased in the wake of a restructuring of Greek sovereign debt, spreading to Spain and Italy, which jointly represent around one-third of the area’s aggregate government bond market. Unsecured bank funding markets in the Euro-zone have seized up even for French issuers.

 

Lastly, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt from AAA to AA+ (negative outlook) by S&P has added to the anxiety surrounding sovereign and financial risk globally, and supported the view that a further relaxation of fiscal policy to support demand will be politically harder to achieve.

In conjunction with the downward revisions to the outlook for growth and policy rates in a number of countries, as detailed in Table 1 above, we have revised down our government bond forecasts across the board. Most notably, we now see 10-yr US Treasuries ending this year at 2.75%, from 3.5% previously (see Table 2). Yet, our bond return expectations remain moderately negative, particularly beyond the next three months. This is for two main reasons:

First, our measure of the global bond risk premium is now at its lowest level since the start of the credit crisis in 2007—(this is the ‘common factor’ jointly driving yields of the top-rated government bond markets after controlling for country-specific contemporaneous macroeconomic conditions such as industrial production, CPI inflation and short rates (see Chart 1).

Admittedly, many investors and businesses are considering contingency plans in light of recession risks, and are understandably willing to pay for owning counter-cyclical assets. Furthermore, ongoing strains in the Euro area have led to reallocations into German bonds. That said, the major central banks continue to provide large amounts of liquidity and collateralized funding. And there is a progressively deeper ‘sharing’ of sovereign and financial risk across the Euro-zone countries (e.g., the large conditional transfers to the program countries and a greater latitude for the EFSF to intervene in support of sovereigns and banks of the Euro area, as agreed at the Euro-zone Summit on July 21). Against this backdrop, highly rated government securities appear already to assign a significant weight to ‘tail outcomes’.

Second, a meaningful hit to future activity growth has now been incorporated into cyclical assets, according to our metrics, particularly in the US. Consider the following:

Real rates are negative across the term structure. US 5-yr nominal rates deflated by actual core inflation are below zero (and deeply negative when deflated by expected inflation), and on this measure have been below Japan’s for several months. At around 3.70%, nominal 5-yr/5-yr forward rates are below the rate of nominal growth at that horizon (which consensus puts above 4.50%).

 

Treasury yields are already discounting a very weak outlook... Using our revised global macro projections as inputs, our Bond Sudoku model indicates that 10-yr US Treasuries should currently trade at 3.0% (see the Table on page 12). The ‘fair value’ at the end of this year rises to 3.2%, or around 60bp above the forwards. Using an alternative recession scenario in the US and Euroland, we generate fitted yields of around 2.2%-2.5%, increasing to 2.6%-2.8% by year-end, still above the forwards.

 

...and/or a high chance of further asset purchases. As mentioned earlier, the Fed has indicated that it stands ready to review the ‘size and composition’ of its securities holding (currently amounting to around US$2.6trn, or US$1.6trn above the ‘normal’ size). Given that short rates are now more strongly underpinned by the Fed’s conditional commitment to keep policy rates close to zero until at least mid-2013, the impact of purchases would be most evident in intermediate and longer-dated securities. In a ‘portfolio balance’ approach (see the April issue of this publication for a discussion), the impact on yields of ‘unsterilized’ purchases of Treasuries (an increase in the size of the balance sheet, involving a corresponding rise in the money supply) or ‘sterilized’ ones (via the sale of shorter-dated instruments, resulting in a change in the composition of the asset portfolio towards longer-duration assets) should be close substitutes. In previous work, we have estimated that every US$1trn in purchases, if maintained, decreases 10-yr Treasury yields by 25bp-50bp. If our subjective assessment that market participants now assign a greater-than-even chance of ‘QE3’ is correct, and considering that the expected ‘unsterilized’ size of these purchases is in the region of US$600-800bn, this would equate to as much as 20bp being already ‘in the price’. Clearly, these magnitudes are unobservable, and thus subject to great uncertainty. Nevertheless, our calculations would suggest that the bond market is already discounting a mild recession and the chance of a Fed reaction to it.

Based on these considerations, we do not see scope for 10-yr US bond yields to break below 2.00%-2.25% in this cycle. Conditional on our baseline forecasts, we expect them to rise to 2.75% by year-end and further above the forwards in 2012. Intermediate rates in other major countries should also increase, although the starting level is somewhat less stretched.
Sovereign Tensions in the Euro-zone

Developments in Euro-zone bonds have been momentous since the start of July. Official-sector loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal (ranked pari passu with outstanding securities) have been substantially modified, implying a large wealth transfer from the Euro-zone’s taxpayers to existing holders of government bonds and resulting in a significant decline in yields (see Chart 4). In return, the Euro-area has managed to limit the ‘collateral damage’ from a sovereign default, and has increased its control over public-sector cash flows in these three member countries. This broadly fits into our broad theme of a ‘managed deleveraging’.

However, the involvement of the private sector in a second rescue package to Greece (through debt exchanges, maturity extensions or buybacks) has set in motion an unintended chain of events. Credit rating agencies (CRAs) have suggested that the same treatment will be applied to Ireland and Portugal, downgrading both these issuers. Moreover, CRAs have called into question the ability of Italy and Spain—systemic borrowers with large roll-over needs—to access markets continuously, leading to a sharp and self-reinforcing increase in their yields.

France has also come under the spotlight recently, and its bonds and CDS have largely underperformed Germany’s (the 5-yr cost of protection is now at around 150bp, comparable to Brazil’s). In sharp contrast to Italy and Spain (where the covariance between sovereign and financial risk has been positive), France’s government funding costs have declined as pressures on domestic banks intensified.

There have been three connected policy responses to these developments.

On the domestic fiscal front, Italy and Spain have announced additional fiscal tightening measures, alongside structural reforms including a ‘German-style’ balance-budget rule in the Constitution and changes to labour market negotiations. Although the short-term impact on domestic demand is likely to be negative, trend growth should instead be positively affected. France is also due to announce further fiscal measures by the end of this month.

At the Euro-area level, the EFSF has been given authority to intervene in secondary bond markets and in the recapitalization of banks outside ‘program countries’. These measures imply a higher degree of ‘risk sharing’ among EMU members, which could potentially represent a key step towards greater centralization of at least some fiscal functions currently conducted by the individual states.

Finally, upon reaching guarantees that the abovementioned fiscal policies will be carried out speedily, the ECB has extended its Securities Market Program to Italy and Spain, purchasing government bonds of these two sovereigns in the open markets. Around EUR25-30bn are estimated to have been purchased so far. The resulting injections of liquidity are sterilized, although this is not a binding constraint in the context of the central bank’s ‘full-allotment’ refinancing policy. We estimate that purchases could cumulatively amount to EUR100-130bn, roughly equating to the net borrowing needs of these two sovereigns for this year.

All these policies carry implementation risks, adding to volatility in the markets. The Greek debt exchange is planned for the beginning of September and later that month the measures agreed at the Euro-zone Summit of July 21 will be brought before national Parliaments for approval. The level of political support for both domestic fiscal policies and those at the Euro-zone level has been at times discontinuous.

On balance, our view is that the substantial deviation from (improving) fundamentals, with the ECB’s open market purchases acting as a backstop, should allow Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos to converge slowly back to their historical relationship with macro factors (see Charts 5-7). We see the 10-yr BTP-Bunds spread trading in the region of 225bp-250bp into year-end, and the corresponding differential in Spain to be 200bp-225bp. We also view pressures on France as overblown. A further tightening of sovereign spreads should result from more tangible progress towards greater coordination of fiscal policies, providing credible counter-cyclical demand management in EMU member countries.

 

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Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:35 | 1565147 achmachat
achmachat's picture

so this is when the PMs will start soaring away?

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:36 | 1565148 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Paging Blythe, we have a problem, pagiing Blythe why isnt Blanky on board with our ponzi silver sheme paging Blythe.

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:44 | 1565186 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

silver is nice, but aliens are better. qe3 cannot save the world. only an alien invasion.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/16/krugman-calls-for-alien-invasion/ 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:56 | 1565234 NewThor
NewThor's picture

Aliens scheduled to arrive with Elenin. So a few months?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=gq4izhwg3Mo

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:37 | 1565465 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Rendezvous with Rama, bitchez.

Now THAT'S what I call stimulus. 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:20 | 1565669 viahj
viahj's picture

nice reference

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:29 | 1565403 ptoemmes
Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:42 | 1565180 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The "Pound and Pence" reports a reservation for a table of four under the following names on August 25th:

1.) Dudley

2.) Hatzius

3.) Hilsenrath

4.) Sack

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:47 | 1565516 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pound and Pence Lunch Menu for August 26th

MAIN COURSES

Whole Wheat Pomo

16.75

Bangers & QE Mash 

15.75

Fish & Baseline Scenario Chips

16.75

Chicken ZIRP Pie

16.75

Keynesian Shrimp  

19.75

Peppercorn- Crusted Expanded Balance Sheet

22.75

 

Hyperinflation Stew

18.75

NY Strippers Steak with Bonus Sauce 

17.75

Poached Atlantic Squid  

17.75

US Grade AA+ Beef Re-election

600,000,000,000

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:37 | 1565149 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So....with respect to QE3..."forward looking statement"...or plausible deniability when they're forced to "revise" and mea culpa to their broke clients?

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:37 | 1565155 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

but industrial output surged?....

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:37 | 1565156 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

time to move to NZ

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:42 | 1565178 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Why Seasmoke, Do you like in-clement weather and  increasing frequency of earth-quakes of the literal kind?

They're having a once-in-a-lifetime snowstorm there right now.

ORI

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:08 | 1565591 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It's the best place for sheep to "blend in".

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:23 | 1565683 viahj
viahj's picture

probably has more to do with sparse population and abundant natural resources

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:38 | 1565161 s0lspot
s0lspot's picture

Will this push more people into PM or into fiatshit derivatives? Could we please have a dip, please pretty please?!

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:51 | 1565212 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

QE3 will push retail back into TNA, AGQ, GLD, FAS, UCO, and high-beta "cult" retail and growth.  This is the way the system gives "money" back to the wealthy.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:07 | 1565286 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wise people pile into PM's, dummies pile into govt paper.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:00 | 1565251 maxmad
maxmad's picture

No Dip for you!

 

-Dip Nazi

 

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:39 | 1565164 hunglow
hunglow's picture

Euro bonds anyone     That's like riding a bicycle in the hangar bay, throwing a little weenie down the hallway

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:40 | 1565165 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

QE4EVA

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:52 | 1565216 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

That is the only phrase that BB needs to utter at Jackson Hole.  

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:46 | 1565510 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nah, he needs to utter numbers, and far bigger ones than $400 billion. $2.5 trillion is whats been 'priced in' already I believe, need way more than that, and I dont see it happening.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:40 | 1565167 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Bond market is discounting a "mild" recession?  Whew!  That will relieve the residents of Obamaville for sure....

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1159677/Pictured-The-credit-crunch-tent-city-returned-haunt-America.html

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:45 | 1565185 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Maybe they just like to go on a extended camping trip?

to bad they didn't follow woodshop at school, because I'd rather live in a wooden shack than in a tent :)

 

at least there'll always be duckttape

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/03/05/article-1159677-03C00530000005DC-504_634x426.jpg

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:40 | 1565170 digalert
digalert's picture

OK! Everyone back in the pool...

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:41 | 1565171 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

 Nevertheless, our calculations would suggest that the bond market is already discounting a mild recession and the chance of a Fed reaction to it.

Hmmmmmmm....... does one read the above and laugh? Or laugh really really hard?

When the big boys get a +ive bias on something, anything, it's time to watch out below, eh? Gold has been so skittish, repeat of Silver a scant couple of months ago....

Down together, perhaps soon, date-calling impossible.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/12/crop-circle-craziness-and-thoughts/


Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:41 | 1565172 buzzsaw99
Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:44 | 1565181 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Suddenly the premier PigMen firm Goldman Sachs is now glorified and hailed as the "expert" on the economy???

I though most on this board hated and despised Goldman and its research.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:45 | 1565188 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, not nearly as despised and hated as you are!

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:46 | 1565195 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

we don't hate them!

we only mock them because they're wrong about the market almost as much as you do.

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:48 | 1565204 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

They are full of shit but must be respected as they are on the other end of the red phone.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:07 | 1565282 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Just like you believe there are those who care about your opinion, so does Goldman. However, in Goldman's case it actually is true, as the firm sets monetary and fiscal policy both in the US and around the world. If you had read zero hedge over the past 2.5 years instead of just waiting for your turn to comment, you may even have noticed the pattern.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:41 | 1565488 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I think I get it now, robo is TD's little bro inlaw and he's protected from harm, lest TD catch hell come Thanksgiving.

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 13:36 | 1566060 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Your name fits you remarkably well

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:49 | 1565807 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

What happened between ZH and RoboTrader?  It's kinda sad to see the two of you throwing knives at each other.  I remember the days when RT was a well-respected ZH contributer with a strong following.  

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 14:08 | 1566206 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Whatever 'respect' RoboTarder had was lost when he took the first, long hit of the Hopium Pipe.

He's now a Hopium Whore, trolling the dark recesses of Wall Streets rear alleys.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:25 | 1565383 hackettlad
hackettlad's picture

Did you read the post?  Does it suggest anywhere that ZH lauds GS as an "expert" on anything?  Au contraire, it suggests the reverse, simply highlighting the self interest of this most venal of institutions.  Is irony lost on you or is your forte to make some fatuous, juvenile comment littered with useless 3 letter ticker symboks and then to vanish into thin air when justifiably upbraided? 

Sort yourself out.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:44 | 1565182 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

"For those wondering why gold just surged by about $20 dollars"

Because everyone waiting on SNB action on CHF peg, if no peg,

GOLD will drop like a rock.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:48 | 1565518 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Huh? Nobody is seriously expecting a CHF peg............

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:44 | 1565184 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I see...theres a hiccup in bonds, so QE faucet on full? Thats it? Thats all theyve got? 

Wow used to be a couple years ago they actually had to tank markets 50% to do this kind of massive robbery....now all they need is a .001% problem with bonds, HUH go figure!

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:47 | 1565199 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I'm with ya, Sheep. I don't think the stars are aligned quite as nicely as for QE1 and 2. They got some worries. 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:48 | 1565202 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Or is it QEnotenoughtomatter?

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:00 | 1565250 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, unless QE were to be some fantastic diamond encrusted number that also totaly crushes the dollar, who would be impressed anyway?

If 'QE' turns out to be another 'we'll keep ZIRP for a while, and stand by with our kickass set of TV repair tools should something go wrong', who would be impressed?

Something here is big time wrong, like when I go to pick up my Porsche from the shop and they wheel out an old 63 VW bug and tell me 'Hey, theyre both German'...well something stinks big time and Im not buyin it.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:45 | 1565189 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The spooky part : that it's priced in. If Bernank blinks, we got a whole lotta repricing to do

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:46 | 1565193 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, already priced in how many times over on every piece of bad news daily since January?

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:52 | 1565220 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

QE to a moon made every bad into a good. And the Bernanke put mae it all seem risk free. I'm not so sure how firm that put really is anymore. Bailouts are getting to be more of a problem

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:51 | 1565206 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This is about keeping rates artificially low. If the Fed is not there to clear all auctions of supply guess where the rates will go? Any small moves in higher rates makes our debt refinancing unsustainable very quickly. Bernanke's rock and a hard place is the other side of the trade is massive infaltion as the dollar declines in value.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:50 | 1565211 doggis
doggis's picture

tyler,

i will take once AGAIN, the other side of the QE3 trade. As was true on the FOMC release day, this trade is far too crowded. I am forced to be suspect of GS this time around, as they are setting up the ritual slaughter for those who have bought into this trade.

 

NO QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole

 

 

 

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:55 | 1565229 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'm with you, this is a giant shit sandwich and Im not taking a bite from ANY side of it! I think this is all the biggest setup in history and all will be burned bigtime. GS trying to pile everyone in long for the big fleecing before the slaughterhouse truck is loaded. Hell with all this crap.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:33 | 1565419 DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

I would think the 3 dissenting votes in the FOMC meeting were a warning message to Bernanke that, they--and possibly others, will not go along with more QE.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 13:48 | 1566117 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

This is a very strong point.  I totally agree.  QE3 launched with 3 directors dissenting?  I don't think so.

As for rolling over maturing issues into longer duration? Probably

Will Goldman coin that QE3?  Definitely

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 14:55 | 1566374 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Trouble is they could be QEing in effect right under the world's noses with swap lines and SPV's galore, plus BIS goaded interest rate moves in teh developing world...

They can, in effect, simulate QE without ever having to say it.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/16/pre-cursor-2-and-currents/

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:34 | 1565442 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

No QE might cause a gold slaughter ..  not sure how far down stocks will go assuming everyone is short to the hilt or sitting on the sidelines.. the put/call ratio swelled out like a fat whore, as much or more than the 08 crash..  one thing for sure the disapointment will make for an interesting day.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:51 | 1565213 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Perhaps QE3 will not happen and Goldman will have egg on its face.

BTW, this site does seem to dwell upon Goldman's research quite a bit.  Could TD secretly be a Goldman shill? 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 15:24 | 1566495 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

I use GS's broker platform and it is the best, bar none.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:51 | 1565215 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

What's the BIG DEAL about the US govt situation?!?!? Well here's an interesting snippet from Bloomberg:
If the US govt was a family, they would be making $58,000 a year, they spend $75,000 a year, and have $327,000 in low-interest credit card debt. They are currently proposing BIG spending cuts to reduce their spending to $72,000 a year. These are the actual proportions of the federal budget and debt, reduced to a level for all to understand.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:52 | 1565221 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'QE is now part of baseline estimates'....so the real news is now QE is a major part of the US economy and GDP, and simply a given. No debate, no need for any market drops or any 'impending doom' type scare tactics....QE's are now just simply part of and a MAJOR part of, the entire economy. This is now totaly insane, and everyone involved should be led to a giant guillotine in the middle of Wall St.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:54 | 1565224 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

+10

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:57 | 1565235 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Big yep. Insanity has prevailed so totally that if there's even one sane person having one sane moment, the whole QE-wheee orgie could come to an end. Stocks would be mighty vulnerable

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:53 | 1565223 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

QE or no QE is completely irrelevant. Markets are getting more and more immune to QE stimulus.

Look at Japan for eveidence. Each subsequent round of money printing had a diminishing effect on asset prices.

QE does not combat deflation. It can not, by definition.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:00 | 1565252 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

We're turning Japanese.

Nikkei circa 1989 to present.

EquityBiteTheDustFlation.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:04 | 1565263 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats true as well, no one is impressed with QE anymore and now the danger is like a spoiled brat chick at her 'Super Sweet 16' birthday party when she was expecting a new Porsche, but unveiling reveals a VW bug. Big tantrum ensues.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:07 | 1565285 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That Hopium & QEueeefing sure allows equity sell-side bitches to build up a massive tolerance, dog.

The junkies will convulse, puke and shit themselves if they don't get a minimum of 4x the last batch of QEopium...law of diminishing returns.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:15 | 1565328 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I see no way this turns out into market euphoria, unless a daimond encrusted multi trillion QE is announced. This $300 billion is chump change and many times than that has been priced in since sub-10,000 DOW and calls for QE daily on every piece of bad news took it to 12,700, a few times over! 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:58 | 1565243 bania
bania's picture

poor gartman, tries to be way too smart for his own good, but at least we can laugh at him

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 10:59 | 1565245 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

300 to 400 bllion?

That's not QE.

That's a QEueeef in the wind.

Equity markets had their spine snapped last week and are long-term broken, and Goldman just conceded Jackson Hole is going to be bad for Teet Suckers.

Eurozone meltdown and subsequent credit seizing up + Stonewalled @ Jackson Hole = 

Vaginal flatulence

 


Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:04 | 1565264 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Forcing air into the vagina, especially by blowing in order to cause vaginal flatulence during cunnilingus, can cause an air embolism in pregnant women, which is a potentially life-threatening condition for both woman and fetus.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:05 | 1565269 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Best case QE is a huge dissapointment? The crackhead market will not be impressed. If the QE promises since January to offset every bit of bad news daily turns out to be ZIRP+small rainy day fund, we're in for a real rough ride.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:05 | 1565271 Bohemian Clubber
Bohemian Clubber's picture

Bring on QE3, damn pigman's been waiting too long, someone's gotta pay for these 3 Michelin stars restaurants in NYC

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:07 | 1565287 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"mild recession". Oh, thank goodness, I thought it was going to be the second phase of a depression. Now I feel better.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:11 | 1565309 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'QE3 not only coming, but already priced in to the tune of 300-400 billion'...

I call BS, the market ramps since the beginning of the year and DOW 10,000 have 'priced in' WAY more than $400 billion QE! I estimate more like $2.5 trillion priced in at the DOW 12,700 mark, at LEAST!

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:18 | 1565343 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But all may be well with Krugmans 'alien world war' coming....HUH??

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:22 | 1565366 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Bill Dudley has his marching orders from Jan Hatzius: GS now sees deflation as the broader risk, and anything and everything must be done to make sure Wall Street has another record bonus season round, pardon, deflation must be halted.

Obey, and we will remove the specter of shame and blame we have now bestowed upon you.  This is Wall Street’s version of guilty until declared innocent. The best part for them is, they never have to prove it either way.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:29 | 1565407 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Deflation = Pernicious

EOY Bonus = Delicious

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:30 | 1565391 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

"QE is now part of baseline estimates"

In all this QE debate nobody mentions why QE is necessary.

QE makes up for tax revenue lost from sending America's manufacturing jobs overseas.

But state and local governments don't get QE. They have no way to make up their lost tax revenue, why state and local govts are going bamkrupt.

Nobody in mainstream media discusses this.   It's never mentioned.  They never mention that state and local governments don't get QE.

So the federal govt gets to borrow all the money it needs to keep operating while state and local governments go bankrupt.

This is why America will collapse into anarchcy and millions of Americans will die.

Or maybe there's another outcome planned.  Maybe the federal government plans to nationalize all the states after they go bankrupt.  Eliminate state borders, state governments, essentially make the states disappear.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:34 | 1565437 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

That's pretty serious talk for a guy wih a "perfect 10 ass" as his avatar. 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:00 | 1565534 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Assuming that's the plan, I really can't argue against it.  State governments are worthless.  State constitutions are worthless. State governments do whatever the federal government says.  The 10th amendment is dead for all practical purposes. 

I'd like to see a national driver license.  State driver licenses are a joke. They all have the same traffic laws, and federal law trumps them anyway.

Losing state governments won't cost any freedom. Because state governments do nothing to protect citizens from federal encroachment on their freedom.

State governments don't do anything worthwhile anymore. Get rid of them.  Get rid of that useless layer of government.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 16:25 | 1566656 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

Why stop at the state lets get rid of the entire thing, all levels of government are useless.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:28 | 1565398 spankfish
spankfish's picture

Money (Gold) talks and bull shit walks.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:30 | 1565399 kito
kito's picture

walmart reporting nice profits, urban outfitters beat estimates, industrial production holding, stock markets recovering from their seizures last week, treasury sales robust......if this trend continues, NO WAY qe3 is coming. NO WAY. bernanke would rather keep status quo at this time than risk the unknown fallout with another qe. this is certain.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:32 | 1565423 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GDP slowly going negative -- check

Unemployment above 9% --check

Deflation returning --check

Russell 2000 dropping --check

= QE 3

 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:34 | 1565436 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QE=$300 billion fart in the breeze, when 5X that has been priced in under 'QE' since DOW sub 10,000. Whatever.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:53 | 1565544 kito
kito's picture

sure gdp will be negative, but bernankster will make sure the world wont know until after we are out of it. delfation returning? where? i see oil pumping back to 90, as per zh today, inflation still rearing its head, bernanke can deal with "9 pct" unemployment, and, yes, if the markets tank, it would usher in qe3. but bernankster can keep the markets afloat. not hard.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:18 | 1565611 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

sure gdp will be negative, but bernankster will make sure the world wont know until after we are out of it.

There won't be an "after we are out of it".   What you see now is America's future.  Stagnant or shrinking economy. High unemployment. High level of foreclosures and bankruptcy.  Permanent QE to keep the federal government operating.  100 trillion national debt.

The only end of all this is currency collapse. And America's collapse.

When the US dollar loses WRC status, that's it, America is finished.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 13:17 | 1565982 kito
kito's picture

yes geezer you are correct, but im only talking about holding off on qe this year, and likely until after elections next year. after that, who knows. bernanke would rather have a stagnating economy than set off a potential nuke with qe. its all he has left and he wont waste it until he absolutely has to. he knows that if it backfires, its over. so he would wait until the circumstances makes it easy for him. no qe3 for now. tyler is way too early on this call.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 14:14 | 1566227 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

kito, you may or may not be paying attention to the way the wind is blowing.

While people are free to opine about how serious/non-serious Governor Rick Perry is when he says things like "it'd be treasonous for Bernanke to print more money," I do believe the divine winds are blowing directly into Bernanke's face, and are not at his back.

I do believe that, if anything, The Bernank has drawn unwanted attention to and politicized The Federal Reserve, and those pieces of scum hate being the center of this much attention at this volatile a time.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 14:54 | 1566369 kito
kito's picture

@truth---yes, which means he stays quiet and no qe3 for the foreseeable futue.

as far as rick perry, he has declared himself the "other" R.P. from texas who is anti-fed. i pity the people that vote for him.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 21:05 | 1567420 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Perhaps you don't understand the situation kito, the federal government can't keep operating without 150 billion borrowed money each month.

Sure, sacrificing the stock market and driving investors into treasuries will help for a while, but it's only temporary, a few months at best.

After that runs out one of two things must happen. QE must start back up or start confiscating 401ks and such. 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:43 | 1565496 LiquidDreams
LiquidDreams's picture

Anyone else looking forward to the great Russell Napier's call tomorrow? 

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:46 | 1565512 jakethesnake76
jakethesnake76's picture

one of the most bizarre things i heard W say early on after twin towers fell was , for America to support the war and the troops by going out and shopping, opposite of any known warrior logic...These people like Krugman sound insane...

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:54 | 1565548 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Wait, didn't GS say the devastating earthquake-radiation leak-tsunami would be Bullish for Japan?...The World?

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 11:56 | 1565554 mendigo
mendigo's picture

oh I get it

"deflation" means a falling market - not like price off eggs

financial jargon is so difficult

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:29 | 1565673 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Wow.

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 12:52 | 1565848 gwar5
gwar5's picture

So, QE3 is baked into the cake and this is GS reiteration of that soon to be fact?  Whooda thunk it?

Tue, 08/16/2011 - 13:07 | 1565918 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Goldman Sachs; master of the squeeze. They show no remorse, sympathy, or hesitation when applying it  to anyone; major corporations, governments, even their greatest benefactor the Fed.

What else would you expect from a squid?

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 13:31 | 1809038 mayas
mayas's picture

Dear Tyler. I was wondering if you can do an update on this on the latest Goldman Sachs monthly Fixed Icome outlook for October that Garzarelli and team published. I'd like to have this monthly info but sadly not a Goldman client.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 13:31 | 1809039 mayas
mayas's picture

Dear Tyler. I was wondering if you can do an update on this on the latest Goldman Sachs monthly Fixed Icome outlook for October that Garzarelli and team published. I'd like to have this monthly info but sadly not a Goldman client.

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