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QE3 Guaranteed As Income Growth Declines, Biderman's Obama Bummer
If there is one data point that Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs, relies upon, it is the series of salary and wage growth (or real-time tax with-holdings) that his firm keeps an extra special eye on. Critically, in our opinion, he notes the very recent shift from positive growth in income growth (after inflation) to negative for the first time since Q1 2010. The picture is particularly worrying since he notes that this is right before the all important holiday sales period which he suspects will significantly disappoint (as we are already seeing in data post Black Friday). Of course, we have long held that the decoupling of the US with Europe (and Asia for that matter) is more a lag than a simple decoupling, and given Biderman's insight on income growth (after inflation) we tend to agree with the Bay Area brain-box that the slowing economic outlook of Q1 2012 will herald the FOMC's push to QE3. Also noteworthy is that the last time they enacted LSAP (QE2) saw the peak in income growth (after inflation) and so their hope that this printing of money will juice a pre-election-cycle economy and while Obama may hope this brings him back from the edge, we suspect, like Charles, that it will not be enough.
Income and Salary growth, as betrayed by TrimTabs YoY growth in tax with-holdings, shows a decline after inflation for the first time since Q1 2010 - with the peak right after QE2.
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Post holiday layoffs and another 2 or 3 million signing up for foodstamps Jan-Mar won't help.
The timing of QE3 is much more politically charged than QE1 or QE2.
Of course, QE4 next October is always a possibility.
way to spread the holiday gloom, eb!
i'm starting to think it's even more possible that the FED is running two sets of books
stealthy bastards
and a most joyous clusterfuck of D00M to you and yours, bro!
I call 'em like I see 'em; and yes - I see stealthy bastards bent on malfeasance.
Best to you and yours as well slewie.
Meanwhile, in Texas life is unchanged, actually booming here in Houston and Midland/Odessa (4.8% UNEMPLOYMENT)
http://www.chron.com/business/article/Population-growth-spurs-Houston-ar...
I lived in houston nine years, assman.
I loved the place. Rice U graduate.
Would like to move back.
The sooner people stop hating those not suffering and succeeding...the sooner these same people might have a thought to move where things are better. Sorry any good news needs to be hated by those wanting to do nothing but complain...
One of the best things anyone could do to prepare for the collapse would be relocate. Just as important at converting to p/m.
All of those wanting work> it is here. Except for you takers and haters ya'll go back to the desert and wait.
After a roughly a year of contemplation, I shall be embarking to Texas next week. I have yet to decide whether I shall found my own laboratory or attend medical school. Regardless, I could not agree with you more that Texas contains vast opportunity.
you ain't seen nothing yet when next years 'dust bowl' spreads from texas to iowa -
or
it gets better - could be flooding not seen since the last ice-age meltdown
either way your fucked
oh, at least you won't have to compete with ethanol
jmo
Earle, Nature is much more consistent than the economic cycle. Stop the negativity; lots of water wells here for any dust bowls you want to dream up. Much of Texas receives 50+ inches annually...5 rivers within 50 miles of here.. Look if people want to help themselves it is still possible..
I think many doom and gloom defeatists people just won't know to do and will go into shock within days of the power going off. (Did I mention Texas is on it's own power grid?... the only state with it's own)
Thank Perry for government job growth, Batman.
Nitwit.
Fade this guy. Just like Bill Gross.
Fade them both.
I've heard Zero Hedge claim QE3 is on the way for months now and it hasn't happened.
QEx doesn't help the real economy as much shadow banking. It's a mechanism to slow deleveraging in shadow banking by supporting collateral (prevent rating downgrades). But as soon as QEx is announced, players rush into commodities, and leverage up with commodities collateral trades, playing contango. So risk, and leverage is shifted among players, and not removed from the system. More leverage will likely be used, since there will be few players, in the next go round.
Short term net effect: bankers get rich, everyone else gets poorer from CPI increases.
medium term net effect: further misallocation of capital from false signals related to short run mis-pricing.
long run net effect: sets up financialpocalyse as the future adjustment will be impossible for public & private institutions to bare.
BUMP
Traders fail to see this
Greater financialization of commodities, implies greater leverage in the system. As commodity collateral trades balloon.
Already Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan are aggressively trying to acquire the London Metal Exchange.
Beware finanicialization of commodities. It is the next cause of systemic risk.
The FED has had to provide billions of U.S. taxpayer $$$ to European banks.
Never fear, QEX (were X=any number) is here to stay; and will be used to reflate equities when needed to continue the perception of the sheeple that the U.S. economy, and their future, is not the Ponzi house of cards it has become.
Exactly right Corn! If the FED could do QE and not blow up, they WOULD have already! Fact is, all these guys have BET on QE and the markets to run up and theyre losing and now desperate. QE dump of $2 trillion or whatever? FORGET it! Theyd be looking at a 1 week fade rally, BUT the new floor on oil would be $120, gold $2,200...FADE THESE FOOLS!
THey may have a plan on the books for QE combined with price controls. It would take a little coordination, not hard when you've got trillions to pass around
The term QE is dead. It's a political liability now. It had a short term effect on the markets but look at us now. Time to admit that the system is failing and swallow the pill.
Sounds right. I read somewhere the FED is considering "Targeting an Inflation rate." In other words, print until we get target inflation regardless of the amount. QE is not politically palatable, but preventing destructive deflation sounds a lot better. Fear not the government will pay us our social security, medicare, etc. Even if the have to knock down every tree in Canada to get the paper that it will be needed. After all, the US always pays what it owes. lol
Corn, I think you're partly right and partly wrong. The Fed's euro swaps were created with new "money". They represent not a full QE3, but to the degree they are used, they might be a QE 2.5.
Meanwhile, Biderman = Goldman Sachs, which at least the last I looked has a big share of his company, and is thus more a chronic fade than not, no matter whether he has his facts straight.
New Gingrich:
"It’s almost like [The Bush Administration] should every once in a while have allowed a terrorist attack to get through just to remind us."
Lots of broken windows.Paul Krugman will be pleased...
http://azizonomics.com/2011/12/17/newt-gingrich-psychopath/
And Ron Paul is the unelectable one? FFS
I'd say QE3 will happen. It's just a question of if the market will first drop due to a EU downgrade or further EU funding problems, or if they will announce something with SPX in the 1200 range. I'd say we at least drop to 1,050-1,100 by Jan FED meeting before anything official is announced. And when to buy back into silver, gold, oil. It seems to be anyones best guess.
Of course QE is going on. How else is this whole mess still holding together? Those that are waiting for QE3 are just waiting for it to be formally announced. Helicopter Ben won't announce it until he feels as though market conditions have deterioted significantly.
Fukker, You are half right, he probably won't announce it. QE3 will be unleashed only to stop a run on the banks, either the TBTF or the Shadow banks, whoever they are. It will be nearly impossible to implement QE until this run develops. It is the only tool they have to stop a bank run/ crisis confidence.
Well the question is solved on how they slap us into camps.
New Anti America Bill, Check.
Iraq war over, check.
Soldiers coming home, check,(oh shit)
Whoooops Dey it is.
'...the last refuge of failed economic empires and banana republics'
I have written about this before. But The Fed will use it as an excuse to try to bailout Europe.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/17/bank-reserves-capital...
Yeah. Romney and Gingrich are Obama's best hope right now.
QE3 is NOT guaranteed. It is pushing on a string. That liquidity doesnt make it down to wages, unless its wages of stock trading clerks. Govt needs to do other things (nationalize, regulate, initiate capital controls etc) so as to reduce aggregate market impact. QE3 makes the bubble even bigger and hurts real economy (zero int rate for savers, no velocity etc. Its pretty clear to me it is not on immediate horizon.
What? You think the FED gives a shit about savers or the real economy?
Yes, but their efforts will increasingly have smaller returns, which is why I dont think QE is inevitable. IMF expanding their balance sheet like a central bank does via SDR much more like;y..
Its very sad that so many people -especially on this site - cling to the old paradigm of increasing financial wealth at cost of social stability. The only reason I get junked everytime I mention that QE is much misunderstood and is not inevitable I get junked by all those ZHers who hope that QE will goose gold and silver, without understanding that 'printing' cannot possibly work (with $1 trillion in paper and $60 trillion in notional claims) until the claims have deflated. They (you) don't care that our absolute world will crash around us as your silver doubles or triples (or 10X whatever). Most people commenting on this site have no idea how balance sheets work. (I continue to read here because the posts are better than the posters)..
We can agree to disagree.
There would be more social stability with no FED (e.g. - markets, bankruptcy, failure).The FED is an enabling Parent for their addiction riddled banker/politician children.
I agree that their efforts will have increasingly small returns. Their "efforts" are for the benefit of banks and bankers; helping the economy and employment and responsible savers is the rationalization, the delusion, under which they operate. "I'm only doing this for your own good." Yeah, sure.
I believe they will QE regardless, if only to be able to say that they did "something".
'Most people commenting on this site have no idea how balance sheets work.'
Um, let me guess, you took a poll?
IMF printing of SDRs has nothing to do with the US economy. You're confused.
Pushing on a string? Yes. But that doesn'tmean they won't do it.
QE3 is NOT guaranteed.
doesn't Congress have to vote on QE3? didn't it vote on QE2?
ah no. Fed is an independent entity, and it does as it sees best.
You might be thinking of TARP.
oh yeah, TARP
thanks for the reply
If we were under Sharia law Ben would have lost both hands and his tongue by now.
Allahu Akbar
Dhurka dhurka.
If Ben was a loving christian under the French Prelates, like poor ABELARD, he would have lost his marbles!...
Where have you gone, Cheeky Bastard,
Our nation turns it's lonely eyes to you.
What's that you say, Mrs. Singer?
Brilliant Cheeky has left and gone away,Hey hey hey.
Sad; nobody remembers the old intellectual ZH posters from just 2 years ago.
Like harry whanger and leo k?
I do, although I wasn't registered then... Pladizow's female behind I remember the best, though!
WRT QE3, I said in comments earlier this week, I think QE3 will happen soon so I will accumulate miner stocks on dips. When it will happen i have no clue but I am guessing next year Q1.
It doesn't have to happen in the US! So most negative aspects can be hidden/masked from the US public.
Why Q1? Because eurozone will need it then and it's also a good opportunity to create an illusion of recovery in time for elections.
QE3 means "buy gold NOW". In that case the USD will be further debased.
Maybe the dead head fed goons will just pull the plug on all the paper fiat debt based currency garbage. CRImex is dead as a conduit for physical delivery on bulk bullion. Silver dead there for a while and 8000 hedge funds corpsezined out of Gold December deliveries. 1000's of contract for delivery just keep appearing daily at the CRImex. Doesn't matter if they send out 500 delivery notices or 1800 the open delivery contracts keep coming in for December delivery. Makes you wonder if those 8000 hedge funds taking the CME/CRImexiCON to court for validation of warehouse receipts on ownership of gold & silver bars aren't making certain they get the last of the gold. We already know the front running of silver contracts for dec. is moot, as the CRIMex hasn't had any silver for months or years of any quantity. Why add any silver delivery contracts for december when you know it's only cash settlement or SLV shares and you need physical bullion before the fiat system crashes. . Who would stay in this corrupted system. No wonder capital flight out of the US western bankstering system. Guarantees as good as the warehouse receipts 8000 hedge funds are carrying to court. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/12/attempt-to-seize-and-li...
I'd just expect the crush in metals is to stampede those 8000 hedge fund CRImex warehouse receipt holders to settler quickly. Forced to paper settle, which won't last as the CRImex dead as a physical delivery bulk bullion conduit By January 2012.
I agree with everything you say except I put the timing of the collapse a little after the years Federal taxes have been collected and more troops are in place. 100% correct to protect it physical style if you haven't convert in hand by April you will lose most everything. The new currency will be devalued and will fail also. So get ready for the long ride that might include much black-marketing that will be enhanced by every economic directive the central planners issue.
buzlightening .
Love absolutely the scenario.
At last, LEGAL blackmail going the OTHER way.
Produce product or PAY my price.
Bicthezz.................sweet revenge.
GEAB N°60 is available! Global systemic crisis – USA 2012/2016: An insolvent and ungovernable country
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-60-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-USA-2012-2016-An-insolvent-and-ungovernable-country_a8481.html
So then. A pro-euro argument, anti-UK/US/money printing/euroscepticism. The Angelsaksian world is doomed, it appears. The euro will survive, as I said many times before. Merry Christmas, happy 2012 and ... buy some euros :)
We will see who has growth and who doesnt. My view is the most recessionary low growth place will be europe.
America ungovernable?
Freedom sometimes looks like chaos to eurosheeple.
We dont really need a lot of government. Liberty minded people can take care of themselves, and protect ourselves from the rabble.
America with everybody carrying a concealed weapon legally scares you doesnt it?
I like it.
More ungovernability please.
.
He spent just 9 years in Texas and look at him go!
Anything I can do to help your return just let me know. We need people like you here.
I can't wait for the collapse and separation of this polarized "united" states, people were much more polite when everyone carried derringers and colts.
Walking Dead Style, Bring it on bitchez!
All hat.
If ya'all are so bad-assed, why did Ken Lay walk and drive the streets of Texass with impunity?
Why did he die from a typical old man heart attack while comfortably awaiting sentencing?
Everyone and their dog own a gun, right?
...and don't give me that crap that he was "heart-attacked"...he got over and just died rather than being put down by one of you so-called big, bad-assed Texans.
you lazy, turkey eating turn coat you...laughing in amazement at your intellectual sleight of hand...oh, so predictably boring!
Never be on the losing side!....Je comprends, mais je suis un romantique, je préfére mourir pour défendre PAlerme des mains de la Cosa Nostra!
falak, "sleight of hand" is used by you improperly on way too many of your posts (usually included with a personal attack).
The laws of nature and the failure of big government are inevitable- there is no "sleight of hand" unless you accept the current status quo as the natural order. Through the collapse some regions (those that recover) will returning to a tougher mentality whereby people fend for themselves and the government that governs the least will succeed the most.
Assfire : I am saying it tongue in cheek; please do not take this remark as personally directed against Amazement. I'm sorry if I've ruffled your personal feathers. I apologise. But Amazement finds the world "so boring"...which is amusing as comment, in the context; it has not escaped me, I enjoy his repartee; but I do reply to it tongue in cheek that he does like changing horses in mid-stream, running with the tide. No offence meant I was just kidding him.
I bought a subscription to GEAB but will not renew. They try to be everything at once - politicians, economists, sociologists, geostrategists.... and excel at none. They do not publicize who their team is so you have no way to check their credentials. They are "Euroland" fanatics and never discuss PIIGS exit scenarios, presumably because they are predominantly French and want to feed out of the German trough. There is no discussion of the trampling of democracy in the EU by the Brussels Politbuero and Nomenklatura, possibly because they want to curry favor with them.
Good review, I was wondering about that.. Thanks.
How can anyone doubt about QE3?
ZIRP guaranteed for two years after QE2, was stealthy Qe3...now as Eurozone burns and the Oligarchy has to stifle the self destructive entrepreneurial urge to profit from market asymmetry, a concerted central bank surge against deflationary scenario becomes urgent necessity. The imminent Loss of financial Jerusalem, unthinkable....Oh, Holy Grail of western civilization, becomes ugent to protect by its monetization ad infintum, the best and brightest, the carriers of the Cross of capitalism, the Knights TEmplars of today, the financial Oligarchs. Ah, the Oligarchs of WS and City, the happy few, the one and only Atlas-like breed, so close to Ayn Rand's heart, of entrepreneurial civilization holding up humanity on its impeccable shoulders. Elmer Gantry's legacy to humanity, Reaganomics, ultimate sweet song of hope against Evil Empire of Socialist dope, beacon of perpetual dominance of land where the flame never gets extinguished. Can it be possible, oh even for an instance, a moment of folly, that land of free, loses its faith in institutions so hallowed as the FED?
What would Rome be if the Senate was a slush house of whorring profligates? Oh, the unbearable burden to Samson's pillars melting in the noonday sun, as the City ran shitty looking for re-hypothecathed trillions of shadowwww banking. "Out, out.." said mad queen, "where is my noble lord, to chase BAncos's ghost that haunts me so with its red drops of insidious truth?"...Oh, truth, nothing but the whole truth, embedded in stone in the Constitution, is the poison that kills Oligarchical will and its facade behind hidden curtain.
I can see Debbie Reynolds singing, when the fatal curtain comes down...don't disappoint Gene Kelly. He was the iconisitic, irrepressible urge of pursuit of happiness.
:-))
Welcome to the Jungle, what a shocker! This is not news, this has been going on since 2006- at least with Forestry related businesses ( like hurricane cleanup Tree Services, Stump Grinders etc). Get out from behind your desk more often, see where the daisy-chain starts (and don't dare call anyone Daisy).
Global labor arbitrage.
The great equalization is happenning.
If the government can hide it from the sheeple with static or slightly increasing nominal wages they wont notice.
Sheeple are easily fooled by money illusion.
Get used to it, bitchez. We eat too much meat anyway. Dont need it. Let the chinese have it.
Courtesy of Globalization. Good, let's get everybody on the same pay scale that way we won't have to build any wall in the border. Oh yeah and fuck the INS too. No need for illegal Immigration.
My thinking is that as long as the US Treasuries are being scooped up by the rest of the world that QE3 is unlikely. The minute that dynamic changes is when Heli Ben will come in dropping loads of new QE. Politically it is a game for sure but at this point does Bernanke even think that Obama can get re-elected? QE is having lesser effects and the Feds balance sheet is bloated beyond belief. Stay nimble. Anything can happen with these nut jobs in charge.
European Banks Stop Serving American CustomersEuropean banks are dumping clients with US citizenship due to a new American law meant to curb tax evasion. The law would require financial institutions around the world to report on certain client activities. Compliance, say many banks, is way too expensive.
German financial institution HypoVereinsbank has informed its customers that it will no longer offer certain services to its US-based clients or to US citizens as of Jan. 1. Deutsche Bank told the paper that it already cancelled such accounts held by American citizens in the middle of 2011. Germany's second largest bank, Commerzbank, is considering a similar move.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,803742,00.html
The U.S. has been pushing for this through the OECD and in direct negotiations for years. The U.S. gov't HATES not knowing everything about each one of their slaves. Heaven forbid if the U.S. gov't can't immediately freeze someones assets and accounts in order to bring them to heel.
Barry and ALL incumbents will lose elections next year if there is no QE3.
With REAL unemployment hitting 20% people will vote them out, Dembrats and Repugnicans alike striving for real hope and change.
They are both the same. It's a game played by TPTB called "Divide and conquer".
This off the topic, but one of may favorite submitters always tied the article into pictures of young ladies with questionable clothes or lack thereof. What has happened to him?
RoboTrader sadly is not missed but his earlier images are. William Banzi is your best bet he did some quality work with blondes covered in gold from many era's.
By the way, 94 % of the "student atheletes" are allowed special admissions to A&M. Shit like that is what is wrong with the country...94% of specially chosen unqualified "students" get to play and bitch about not being paid while those with the grades are robbed of the opportunity that they would love to do for free.
http://www.newhaven.edu/news-events/24185.pdf
Public universities with for profit atheletic programs that allow Sandusky-like coverups for the sake of the all mighty dollar... just another factor in the decline of both morals and sportsmanship.
How funny that the solution policymakers will rely upon (QE) will not only make things worse, but their inevitable demise is more certain as the more QE they do, the more people become privy to the fraud that it is.
Demise? Get real, average American cares more about sports than politics or the economy. The Banks need real estate to go up. That is what has been killing the banks for the past 3 years. Why do You think that banks don't want to refi? With under water properties, zero interest, and inflation coming, no way they will lend.
While our Treasury rates are low,, the YC slope isn;'t signaling reecession or even the case for more QE. That is, if you believe the yield curve. This is a scenario in bond markets that we have never seen before. Even if the income data is true, it isn't appearing in the bond market data. Yet. QE3? The Message From The Yield Curve is No – “But these aren’t normal times, Cato”http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/18/qe3-the-message-from-the-yield-curve-is-no-but-these-arent-normal-times-cato/
WHY THR FUK ISN'T ANYONE COVERING THIS STORY!!!!!!
http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/995-lawsuit-end-tyranny
This lawsuit was filed the other day and IT EXPLAINS EVERYTHING!!!!!! PLEASE READ AND SPREAD FAR AND WIDE.
THIS LAWSUIT PROVES THE EXISTENSE OF THE SECRET SOCITIES AT WORK TRYING TO STEAL THE WORLDS WEALTH AS WELL AS EXPLAINING EVERYTHING FROM WW1 all the way to 9/11 and beyond.
THIS LAWSUIT IS LEGIT AND HAS BEEN FILED IN THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF NEWYORK AGAINST THE UNITED NATIONS, SILVIO BERLUSCONI, AND MANY OTHER ELITES!!!!!!!! THIS STORY IS NOT FAKE!!!!!!!! IT CAN ALL BE VERIFIED THROUGH THE COURTS SYSTEM!!!! It talks about WHATS REALLY BEEN GOING ON FOR THE PAST 80 YEARS OR SO. PLEASE READ!!!!!!!