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QE's Long Shadow Is Getting Shorter

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With Europe hitting the skids, EURUSD at multi-year lows, and the US equity market down a whopping (and terrifying) 9% from its March highs, it seems the market remains increasingly hopeful that this time will not be different in that the Central Banks of the world will print and save us once more. As a reminder we suspect the ECB can't (collateral is non-existent for the most needy sovereigns/banks) and won't (Germany and the AAA-Club vehemently opposed to losing this game of chicken), China won't (inflationary concerns), and the BoJ won't (after checking to the Fed post-downgrade last night as it appears they recognize their limit). This means, the world has pretty much checked to The Fed - but with TIPS yields a good distance from his precognitive threshold for deflation-avoidance and with the S&P 500 at 1300 still, we suspect the hope is premature. And if performance anxiety is affecting all those long-only managers who are are just now unwinding their P.A. over-allotment to Facebook, we estimate (based on QE1 and QE2) that the S&P could trade down to 1100-1150 before we see Ben step in to save the world - which by the way is only early December 2011 lows. How quickly we lose perspective and anchoring bias takes over when a market rises magically for months without any looking back.

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:00 | 2455105 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Check to the Fed.  Hasn't this whole experiment been one large bluff anyway? Show us your cards Bennie. 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:06 | 2455134 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

My advise to new ZHers just getting started in the world of finance:

The best way to get hands on financial experience is to open a trading account and tune into either CNBC or Bloomberg for AT LEAST 2 hours a day. This way you will be learning first hand what it is like to be a star trader who lives and breathes the markets everyday. There is no better way to learn to trade like a pro IMO.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:09 | 2455149 resurger
resurger's picture

corny fucking troll

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2455268 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Now, now, some people can't think outside their trading channels. You shouldn't be mean to them. It is MUCH easier to take their money if you don't belittle them.

And less anyone get TOO COMFORTABLE with even TD's contrarian view (i.e. QE waiting for S&P to hit 1100) ...

The Black Swan is not the S&P going down to where it has been before.

The Black Swan event is Bernanke holding off on QE until the EU/euro dissolves. This would mean the S&P could go to 900 and Bernanke stil not firing up a new round of QE.

Think about the panic that will REIGN under those circumstances.

barliman

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:38 | 2455338 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Yeah, the black swan is Bernanke admitting his theories on ZIRP at the zero bound simply do not translate to broader economic activity.  Which is precisely why he encourages up-and-coming economists to focus on behaviorial economics.  In summary- BB knows how to blow asset bubbles (ZIRP at the zero bound) however he does not know how to bridge asset inflation with sustainable economic activity (asset inflation trickle down).

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:23 | 2455955 NakedSwanTrading
NakedSwanTrading's picture

Im sure most agree there will be a new wave of turmoil in the markets very soon. We think the phase I of Crash can get started as early as tomorrow morning with the QQQ, leading the way, severely impacting XLK and SMH. Above and beyond the selling wave we have experienced in the last 18 hours, specifically when QQQ trades below $60.33 for 8 or more minutes, anytime before May 29th, then the sell-off will imminently escalate several fold to the downside. If it takes out this level prior to the period, markets can still head south, but a very brief dead cat intra-day bounce is possible before market increases its acceleration downward upon crossing the critical point. It is not a matter of crossing the point for us to have high confidence in the market meltdown. It is just a nearby place in time and price that would make for some even more interesting and unusual downside market activity.

 

Warning published on May 18th covers borad topic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFf5vTm2_LQ

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 21:20 | 2457329 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Sounds right to me. How did your AAPL plays work out? Last time I checked theta was too high for my liking so writing calls for you ought to have done well in combination with your short-term written calls and longer-dated buying of puts & calls if I remember...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:34 | 2456240 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

why don't you go fuk yourself, barliman?

and take that moronic string-jumping douche-bag gazillion-dollar asswipe troll with you, too!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 18:44 | 2456920 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Why slewie, what have I done to piss you off?

It couldn't be making fun of MDB_

It doesn't seem logical it would be my suggestion regarding Bernanke holding off on QE  ... unless you've already gone long on July SPY calls

I don't mind being told to fuck myself but like all great method actors I like to know my motivation.

barliman

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:11 | 2456988 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you weren't making fun of MDB, you were responding to resurger with a "now, now" when he called out MDB

don't do it again, ok?

MDB is a fuking asswipe string-jumping "popular" troll

if he uses the box at the BOTTOM of the page for his comments instead of "pretending" to reply to somebody he won't have any more problems here and be confusing people of your caliber

any more questions?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 19:43 | 2457076 barliman
barliman's picture

 

slewie,

Do I really have to use the /s or /j (jovial) when I jovially respond to someone's mundane response to "a fuking asswipe string-jumping "popular" troll" ?

My response belittled MDB in fairly clear terms. Tell you what, next time I'll just have directly at good old MDB - though I may have to use all sorts of mechanisms to get through to him.

Pax?

barliman

Thu, 05/24/2012 - 03:46 | 2458096 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no problem; as you wish

i'm sorry about the confusion, myself, but i did want resurger to know i totally had his back there, so at least i lit you up for a good cause (o0ps)

thanks for not suing me

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:10 | 2455153 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Great advice. Next time we dont want something we will let you know.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:14 | 2455181 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

True, tune in.  Watch.  But know that's what Wall St. wants you to think.  Act accordingly.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:15 | 2455192 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

New ZH readers should be advised that MillionDollarBonus posts are heavily laced with sarcasm and should be viewed in that light.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:08 | 2455524 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

And this just in from MDB:

All of green skin, 800 centuries ago, their bodily fluids include the birth of half-breeds. For the fundamental truth self-determination of the cosmos, for dark is the suede that mows like a harvest.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:45 | 2455748 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

;-)

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:16 | 2455194 pemdas
pemdas's picture

Thanks, MDB, I was wondering where to start!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:17 | 2455206 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

My metaphysician communicated with spirits and to make a long story short, has thrown the bones and based upon her interpretation of the bone pile,  says that only 1 hour of CNBC will make me dream that I am just grass growing on a lawn in Budapest.  I am happy.  Bloomberg is said to cause bowel problems for other people I know, hence group suffering.  Can you change your advice so that I will feel better MDB?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:18 | 2455218 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

My advi(s)e to new ZHers just getting to know (MDB_), or clone version thereof:

If you're interested in 'expediency' with regards to the above mentioned advi(se),

- quit your job

- withdrawl all your savings

- sell all your assets

- Mail all proceeds to Goldman Sachs

- go live under a bridge & scrounge for food

You will have reached market & trading nirvana in 5 easy to follow steps...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:20 | 2455223 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

They will print, QE to infinity is assured. They have no choice.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:30 | 2455290 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

which reminds me.  What is the fat tail risk of hedgies getting margin called on their over levered long pm positions ?

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:35 | 2455323 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

You were doing just fine until you said tune into Bloomberg/CNBC for at least two hours a day.  That's where the dumb money goes to find out the quickest way to give away their capital.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:36 | 2455327 MunX
MunX's picture

MDB for once you are right! CNBC is a great place to tune for advice. If CNBC is pumping, you dump. If CNBC is dumping you pump.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:43 | 2455362 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Hey MDB! Are you still mad Jamie lost some of your money?

I find the best experience I gained for the market these days came from when I played at the WSOP (not from Kramer or any of the other puppet bitchez).

So, if MARKETS = CASINOS, don't end up selling your hair to a wig shop!!!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:45 | 2455376 garypaul
garypaul's picture

LOL

PS. I don't know why everyone misses your sarcasm

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:58 | 2455453 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Is it sarcasm or is it satire? He always sounds like the stereotypical CNBC-MSNBC pundit, but carried beyond what they are willing to say aloud.

Either way it's a hoot.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 17:56 | 2456781 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

It's this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poe%27s_law

 

That's what makes it so damn funny

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:00 | 2455447 Jake88
Jake88's picture

That's really not funny. You, Milliondollarbonus, have a dark twisted sense of humor.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:31 | 2455692 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

MDB, there is a better way to learn to trade like a pro.  Use options.  The trader can limit her losses while exposing herself (heh heh he said exposing herself) to unlimited gains.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:42 | 2455764 Xue
Xue's picture

I started to make money in the stock market when I stopped watching CNBC. My portfolio doesn't like market noise.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:11 | 2455901 theTribster
theTribster's picture

You forgot the [sarcasm] indicator I think, I hope. There aren't any ZHers that would agree with that thinking. Both CNBC and Bloomberg are scripted, party-line channels - cheerleaders if you will. Occasionally, Santelli is worth listening to and some of their guests but in general they are terrible. I think Bob Psani is is the representative idiot of the CNBC world - 10 years and he still hasn't figured anything out. The best news comes from places like ZH and SeekingAlpha (some of thee writers) and a few others. Bottom line is you have to do your own research.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 17:55 | 2456776 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

he IS the [sarcasm] or /sarc indicator. That's all you need to know.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:34 | 2455981 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

I  (heart) MDB

Sarcasm so deep and refined that it can only be apreciated by a connoisseur.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 17:54 | 2456773 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

LOL

almost too rich to take seriously... it's funny, I admit :D

http://tk010.k12.sd.us/MCj02504250000%5B1%5D.gif

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:26 | 2455643 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

According to this chart and the rate of decay in gold paper prices over the same time span could see spot gold at $1400 to $1350 before more easing.

Then back up the truck again because right around the corner is another debt ceiling fiasco. I presume with the amount of printing they are doing our fearless corrupt D.C. class will have to compromise on taxes. We are so screwed. And to think; interest rates have not started to rise yet.......depressing.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:01 | 2455111 MunX
MunX's picture

Maybe he is waiting for jet fuel to go down in price. Flying that helicopter is getting expensive.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:01 | 2455112 vmromk
vmromk's picture

BLOW ME Bernanke, your wealth effect is going right into the toilet, you FUCKING ASS CLOWN.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:06 | 2455117 vmromk
vmromk's picture

I'm praying for more QE, because whatever minor effect it will have on the rigged stock market, it will have a more pronounced effect of the metals market.

 

Just think of the effect more QE will have on all of the unemployed while this SCUMBAG COCKSUCKER is deliberately trying to conjure up massive inflation to help the insolvent banks.

 

FUCK YOU Bernanke !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:04 | 2455121 nudlee
nudlee's picture

what about cutting the reserve ratios?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:05 | 2455127 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Election year will cause the load to get blown earlier. June timeframe.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:21 | 2455233 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

If QE comes in June, they are going to have to keep it up for at least 5 months if they are trying to influence elections.

The positive effects on equities will have a very short life span this time.  I believe a significant number of Americans will soon become very concerned with the specter of massive inflation arriving hand in hand with the next printing spree to flush the bankers pockets with cash "one more time".

QE could really backfire this time.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:07 | 2455454 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

They will announce QE3 in concert with "other measures" to improve employment and boost housing sales.

QE3 (~$2T) will be delivered to the banks over the course of a month probably starting in June. Those "other measures" (~$0.0002T) will be timed to have an impact after elections, of course.

And of course, they will never happen.

There will be no backlash. People are frozen with fear. There will be a collective whimper and then a long, unbroken scream of unmasked terror.

And then. It will finally. Become interesting.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:04 | 2455128 resurger
resurger's picture

This is exactly how the markets will go ...

yet, wall street blames the average joe

FUCK WALLSTREET

check the video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2f2kGHcdJYU

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:08 | 2455142 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

DXY and WTI are fast approaching QE-proval level's.  I'll start loading up on FB when DXY breaks 85. 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:08 | 2455143 franzpick
franzpick's picture

New lows for the indices, and the day is early.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:08 | 2455146 metastar
metastar's picture

Revolution = Checkmate

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:10 | 2455151 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

And once again the ECB won't print because the Germans won't agree.

 

Bullshit.

 

The Germans will agree in the end - they are NOT going to be put in a position where they or Merkel can be accused of destroying the Sacred Euro.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:23 | 2455248 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

That's not the point they will make in rebuttal.  Their point will be:

Printing destroys the Euro.  We won't allow it to be destroyed.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:00 | 2455861 tallen
tallen's picture

Printing destroys the euro.

Not printing destroys the euro.

What we need is a schrodinger printer. It is printing, but not printing at the same time.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:37 | 2456014 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Better yet is a schrodinger Euro.

It's both alive and dead at the same time ...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:11 | 2455157 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

UK loving them some QE, too:

http://t.co/vHi7gG9U

And of course, not due to people hurting or not being paid enough to cut down on their debt, but because corporations are whining (again) due to slow UK Retail sales in 2012:

http://t.co/EBqwBmeA

It's like the Bank of England, and the Federal Reseve, don't really quite fucking understand that unlike consumers, when *they* have debt to pay off, we (nor will our corporate slave masters) just can't simply go to our computers and press CTRL-P.

And even if we did, the government they fund would just take half of the bullshit money we just printed, anyways.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:12 | 2455170 judejin
judejin's picture

looks more and more likely PMs will crash the support line at 1500 and 26.5 before the resume the up move.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:12 | 2455171 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

A market is a price discovery mechanism.  Instead the only thing that matters now are the intentions of the Fed.  Free markets have degenerated into controlled, command markets rather like in fascist states.

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:17 | 2455202 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  What "market".  Long black markets and guillotines.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:14 | 2455178 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Sorry but long term inflation expectations are not falling fast enough to prompt Bubbles Bernanke to expand the balance sheet further.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGGBE10:IND/chart

Additionally, if this economic policy of concentrating wealth-creation (i.e. asset inflation) in a fewest possible hands to prevent an broad inflationary breakout continues unabated... it's not going to be the 99% versus the 1%, it's going to be the 99.99% versus the 0.01%... and that's when it gets interesting.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:14 | 2455183 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

trillion dollars stimulus plsssss

$1,000,000,000,000

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:17 | 2455204 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US debt and unfunded liabilities are increasing at $8.21 trillion a year. Can we have at least $2 trillion, Mr Bernanke,  since that may be good for about 3 months?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:29 | 2455283 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

honestly i'm just interested in a printed newspaper headline of "$1,000,000,000,000 STIMULUS".  i think such a physical piece of paper is one thing that could have serious value one day many years in the future when the DOW is actually at 100k

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:17 | 2455205 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

"we estimate (based on QE1 and QE2) that the S&P could trade down to 1100-1150 before we see Ben step in to save the world"

so, next week then? 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2455269 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

QE is done to lower bond rates.  There is clearly no need for that.

Why risk Fed independence in an election year when QE isn't needed?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 18:40 | 2456905 oak
oak's picture

QE, when? Remember, after  2008 Olympic, the crisis started. This time, QE will begin after London Olympic.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:18 | 2455211 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

this is why the market was ramped to 1420 in the first place - so that a drop to 1200-1250 would satisfy the need for a pre-QE "correction".   we'll be allowed to go maybe another 5% and then the printfest is on again. 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:18 | 2455214 davinci7_gis
davinci7_gis's picture

Yes, the S&P will most likely hit 1160 by late summer and a person would be very wise to buy energy and energy commodities at that time!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:23 | 2455247 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

the fed is guilty of price fixing, fraud, and collusion. die.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2455267 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

That fraud has been going on for decades.  One nation under fraud.  Should update our pledge of allegiance.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:27 | 2455274 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

you forgot counterfeiting and war crimes.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 15:38 | 2456259 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

try to remember how busy she gets!

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:27 | 2455273 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Perfect storm approaching for gold to slingshot far higher, as the banksters are now quite blatant in their manipulation.  The Rothschild psychos cannot allow the Euro to fail, so it's either Euro bonds (uber bullish for gold) or a multi-trillion QE (supra bullish for gold).  

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 22:37 | 2457567 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Yup. Check out the 52 week pattern:

http://flic.kr/p/bNoznc

http://flic.kr/p/bWhrSU

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:27 | 2455277 UTICA CLUB XX PURE
UTICA CLUB XX PURE's picture

Who cares about the price of Silver & Gold in US Dollars.

The price in USD is not relavent. 

The real Q is what's its real streeet VALUE when the USD bites the dust?

What can you buy with it on the streets when usless paper bills are blowing down the streets cloging the storm drains?

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:32 | 2455299 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We are right in range for Bernanke's next insane policy move.  It will be to fractionally reserve the $.  The Bernanke put is at 12,225 on the DJ.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:34 | 2455319 constantine
constantine's picture

They won't let the bond market implode, which is what mathematically would be certain if Twist is allowed to end without a new QE.  I think a clandestine QE (outright off balance sheet fraud) version is possible.  If 61% of the bond market disappears come June 30th and somehow interest rates magically remain idiotically low, we will know it is the case.  

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:40 | 2455348 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My god, wake up.  ZIRP is QE by any other name, but do any of us really believe that there is "no cost" associated with creating capital out of thin air without creating anything of real fucking value?  FAIL.  The world is Japan, deal with it.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 12:44 | 2455371 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Give Bennie a break. Its tough to feed a quadrillion dollar shadow banking  system on a measly 15 trillion $ GDP.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:04 | 2455494 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

That's funny because it is true.

JPM will be allowed to implode as part of the plan to nuke large parts of the shadow banking system.

They are now eating their own.

Also funny because it is true.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 22:33 | 2457558 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

IS IT TRUE?

http://dailybail.com/home/holy-bailout-federal-reserve-now-backstopping-...

According to this YOU backstop all losses on JPM derivatives trade thanks to a regulatory decision by the Fed.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:03 | 2455445 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

What i'm missing in the discussion is an important differentiation between the two possible kinds of QE and QE in the EUSSR:

a) The plunderers of Germany want EURO BONDS to remove any possibilitites for the markets to differentiate between the hard working payers and the takers. EURO BONDS would be the destruction of a trustworthy currency. Versailles III for Germany without war. But it would nevertheless lead to the destruction of the EUSSR.

b) The second option is the monetization by the ECB. That way the pressure on the unproductive countries could be kept, because the market could buy bonds of different countries.

 

What is the most likely outcome?

IMO Euro bonds?

Why?

Because Marxism is the main ideology of the whole EUSSR establishment. They want a World Government and the destruction of the souvereign nations. What is not known in the world, Merkel was working for the Agitation& Propaganda bureau in the communist GDR!

The global elite has discovered, that the communist system was less suitable to reach World Government, therefore the USSR experiment was given up and the international Reds joined the international Capitalists. Same brotherhood like during WW2.

But it is important to understand, that both parties, those for Euro Bonds and those against them, want the same result.

It's the same with the Republocrats in the US: they also want NWO and world government and the destruction of the nation with mass immigration, but they serve different customer bases...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:01 | 2455478 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

QE is pure misallocation of capital, trillions in debt burden for our children and grandchildren to create Icrap, Facebook website and enrich the banksters ... and we have to play the game ...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:02 | 2455482 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

MDB LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

Keep kissing your poster of Cramer. You are hilarious.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 13:59 | 2455850 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It only made a bump in the road of the DAX last time. Oh that's right the US decoupled back then.

Agent Sotero is going to have trouble beating Romney at this rate.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 14:24 | 2455957 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

ben will qe before november

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