QE's Long Shadow Is Getting Shorter
With Europe hitting the skids, EURUSD at multi-year lows, and the US equity market down a whopping (and terrifying) 9% from its March highs, it seems the market remains increasingly hopeful that this time will not be different in that the Central Banks of the world will print and save us once more. As a reminder we suspect the ECB can't (collateral is non-existent for the most needy sovereigns/banks) and won't (Germany and the AAA-Club vehemently opposed to losing this game of chicken), China won't (inflationary concerns), and the BoJ won't (after checking to the Fed post-downgrade last night as it appears they recognize their limit). This means, the world has pretty much checked to The Fed - but with TIPS yields a good distance from his precognitive threshold for deflation-avoidance and with the S&P 500 at 1300 still, we suspect the hope is premature. And if performance anxiety is affecting all those long-only managers who are are just now unwinding their P.A. over-allotment to Facebook, we estimate (based on QE1 and QE2) that the S&P could trade down to 1100-1150 before we see Ben step in to save the world - which by the way is only early December 2011 lows. How quickly we lose perspective and anchoring bias takes over when a market rises magically for months without any looking back.
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