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A "Quality Assessment" Of US Jobs Reveals The Ugliest Picture Yet

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Over the past week we have repeatedly exposed the BLS' shennanigans to both keep the headline unemployment rate suppressed and to generate an upward bias in the market courtesy of a "bigger than expected beat" of expectations. Granted, various semantics experts continue to scratch their heads in attempting to explain a collapsing labor force when even Goldman's Sven Jari Stehn just predicted that it will drop to 63.1% by the end of 2012 (and 62.5% by the end of 2015). Funny then that the US will have no unemployment left when the participation rate drops to 58.5%. And no, the "population soared argument based on revised data" doesn't quite cut it when the bulk of said surge not only did not get a job, but was not even counted toward the labor force. Yet what the biggest flaw with all these arguments that vainly (and veinly) attempt to defend the US economy as if it is growing, is that they focus exclusively on the quantity of jobs, doctored or not, and completely ignore the quality. We have decided to step in and fill this void.

By now, most of our readers know that every incremental dollar of public debt leads to less than one dollar of GDP growth, courtesy of the debt/GDP ratio having surpassed 100% a month ago. Yet what most don't know is that the marginal utility of public debt is not the only thing that may have peaked: as of January 31, 2012, the date of the most recent BLS jobs report, it appears that the "marginal utility" of job formation (if such a concept existed) also turned negative. And since it doesn't exist, yet, allows us to explain.

While the BLS is the best, if massively seasonally adjusted, tracker of job quantity, the only true indicator of job quality is the FMS's Daily Treasury Statement, which tracks and updates how much government revenue is generated any given day courtesy of withheld income and employment taxes. So to avoid any potential semantic confusion, we will stick to numbers and bullets: hopefully even the most dedicated newsletter sellers and "asset managers" can follow those without losing much in translation.

  • In the fiscal year 2011 and 2012 (starting October 1) and continuing through the date of the most recent BLS update or January 31, there have been 87 official work days. This is the period which we will define as YTD (fiscal year to date period) for 2012, and will use its matched equivalent for 2011 for comparative purposes.
  • In the 2012 YTD period, the US Treasury recorded personal income withholding tax revenue of  $592.676 billion (source)
  • In the comparable period for 2011, beginning October 1, 2010 and continuing through January 31, 2011, withholding taxes were $592.984 billion (source)
  • In other words, the US Treasury collected $310 million more in tax withholdings in the first 4 months of fiscal 2011 than in the first 4 months of fiscal 2012.

Presented visually - the black bar shows the cumulative divergence between the fiscal 2011 and 2012 data series. Below zero, such as that on January 31, is bad.

  • Based on establishment survey data, the US started fiscal year 2011 (Sept 30, 2010) with 129,885,000 employed (source)
  • Based on establishment survey data, the US started fiscal year 2012 (Sept 30, 2011) with 131,694,000 employed (source)
  • Based on establishment survey data, at January 31, 2011, the US had 130,456,000 employed (source)
  • Based on establishment survey data, at January 31, 2012, the US had 132,409,000 employed (source)
  • Said otherwise, in the first 4 months of fiscal 2011 the US "created" 571,000 jobs; in the first 4 months of 2012, the US "created" 715,000 jobs. 
  • More importantly, between January 31, 2011 and January 31, 2012 the US added 1,953,000 jobs.

And yet...

  • Over the same period, as shown above tax withholdings are actually trending lower in 2012 compared to 2011!

But that's not the kicker. This is:

  • The 130.456MM workers "employed" at January 31, 2011 created a total of $592.985MM in withholdings, or on average of $4,545.48 per worker over the first 4 months of the fiscal year 2011.
  • The 132.409MM workers "employed" at January 31, 2012 created a total of $592.675MM in withholdings, or on average of $4,476.09 per worker over the first 4 months of the fiscal year 2012.

Translation: based on the above, even as America was "creating" jobs, 2 million to be precise (and 2.5 million between Sept 30, 2010 and January 31, 2012), the government tax revenues created by these jobs actually declined in 2012 compared to 2011, on a per job basis, by roughly 1.5%!

This analysis ignores completely any seasonal fudging, census adjustments, "updated population controls" and all those other "fudge factors" which keep BLS Ph.D.s employed (especially during election years). It is pure math based on numbers reported by both the US Treasury and the BLS.

This analysis also has substantial ramifications on the Treasury's forecast debt issuance schedule, which is driven substantially based on model assumptions for tax withholdings. Alas, absent some massive surge in income, and thus increased tax withholdings, going forward, we see no reason why there should be any material upside in government income tax revenues in 2012 compared to 2011. Which means that absent significant spending cuts, which we all know will never happen, the US is about to substantially underestimate just how much debt it has to issue for fiscal Q2 and Q3. Needless to say, this also means that the debt ceiling in such a case, would be breached far sooner than even in our pessimistic scenario of early November 2012.

Finally, and most, importantly, we hope that this analysis has proven that while the BLS may play around with various numerators, denominators, seasonal adjustments, and other irrelevant gimmicks which are only fit for popular consumption particularly by those who have never used excel in their lives, a deeper analysis confirms our concerns, that not only is America slipping ever further into a state of permanent "temp job" status, but that a "quality analysis" of the jobs created shows that the US job formation machinery is badly hurt, and just like the marginal utility of debt now hitting a critical inflection point, so the "marginal utility" of incremental jobs is now negative, which means that Obama, or whichever administration, can easily represent to be growing jobs, and declining the unemployment rate by whatever gimmick necessary. Yet these very jobs are now generating far less in so very critical tax revenue for the US treasury, and continue to declining steadily in quality.

 

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Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:37 | 2133025 jonjon831983
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To summarize... and please correct me if I am incorrect: The government is paying people to dig holes and fill them in again?  However, the money is being spread out too far and supply of labour too great that the workers have no pricing power and as such not enough taxes are generated from these hole diggers?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:39 | 2133027 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

To summarize the summary: the government is now doing admirably what the Fed has been doing with perfection over the past 99 years: diluting.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:48 | 2133042 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

However, a wise man once said the solution to pollution is dilution.  Doesn't it apply here as well?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:32 | 2133168 redpill
redpill's picture

OT: You think that's ugly, check out this: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/07/us-usa-fbi-extremists-idUSTRE81600V20120207

Something tells me the FBI definition of "extremist" is only going to get broader as time goes on.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:17 | 2133251 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Interesting - I posted that article to another ZH thread about an hour ago. Maybe YOU are gonna be on that list...

 

NFP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:41 | 2133270 expert urls
expert urls's picture

Of course, I will read it more. And I think that it is very interesting. Thanks!

....................

Thiet ke web

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:34 | 2133340 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

OK.....now I'm confused.....didn't we just create 1/4 million jobs?

 

CNBC told me so.

 

In deference to Clint Eastwood....the second half is not about to start. It's the fourth quarter......5 seconds left on the clock.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:03 | 2133373 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

No No No No GetZee. You mis-read.

A million 1/4 jobs were created, see? Makes all the difference. I did a few 1/4th jobs in my time there (House painting-tough, fancy jewellery store in Marin-Easyyy)....

Earning less than you were before can be tough. Earning nothing at all for a while is really liberating. if all the 1/4 job people learned a new skill like emptying their garage on Ebay or taking apart the 6th car for parts... there is money to had/made.

A third world USA (which it already was 6 years ag by the way, only did not look like that) is here. I hear tales from friends of un-picked garbage, roads going to crap....

ori

songs-for-SONGS/

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:33 | 2133489 economics1996
economics1996's picture

 

What the article is saying is that if you work one hour a week you are counted as employed.  If you stop looking for work after four weeks you are not counted.  States, Florida, are kicking people off the unemployment roles because it is a election year, so the numbers are bull shit.

The BLS found a bunch of old farts who conveniently don’t work and are not counted as unemployed, and some teenagers, who conveniently are all attending college, and not counted as unemployed.  So even though the population is growing and jobs are stagnated at 2004 level, unemployment is only 8.3%

Some smartass at ZH cut through the bull shit and went strait to the payroll tax collection numbers and found a DECREASE of 1.5%.  If you compare that to the 1.3% decrease in disposable income they jive up perfectly.  The economy is in recession, and shrinking.

The “growth” you see in corporate balance sheets is nothing but inflation, which for those who understand, is normal when the central bank is printing.  People become fooled by the fake wealth and think they have more wealth than they really have.  Capital users will overbuy imputes into production and overproduce under the false assumption that the economy is growing. 

This is why you see the disconnect between corporate “profits” and disposable income.  The capital users get the inflated cash first.

I hope this helps.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:37 | 2133496 economics1996
economics1996's picture

 

As for the Gestapo at the FBI and CIA those mother fuckers will be civilians by 2018.  Think KGB 1985 circa.  Those mother fuckers have a date stamp on their forehead.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 14:48 | 2134652 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

Putin

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:17 | 2133381 repete
repete's picture

no time outs left!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:16 | 2133457 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Better spike the ball then.

 

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:19 | 2133464 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Turn those clocks back on Mortimer!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:11 | 2133208 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Delusion is not the solution.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:01 | 2133344 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Then why do they keep doing it?

 

It's simple. Delusion while they're diluting.......it just works. 

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:37 | 2133498 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

This is the solution:

 


The Alchemy of Number Theory. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5syRnaXwpg&feature=youtu.be

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:48 | 2133044 ACP
ACP's picture

"Did he take the deal?  What?  What the hell is Cromwell doing giving a lecture tour when he's losing $60 million a quarter?  Giving lectures on how to lose money.  Christ, if this guy owned a funeral parlor, no one would die!  This turkey is totally brain dead!   Alright.  Christmas is over, and business is business.  Keep buying.  Dilute the son of a bitch."

-Fed govt referring to the average US worker

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:51 | 2133047 kito
kito's picture

i heard that a person can build up a tolerance to poison by taking diluted amounts repeatedly. sure explains our citizenry.......................

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:05 | 2133065 Michael
Michael's picture

1.2 million less paychecks going out to workers who are paying no taxes in January, is a loss of jobs. The January BLS report is a complete and total fabricated lie! 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:10 | 2133072 connda
connda's picture

I see where you're going with this Tyler, but the first thing that jumped out at me was:

Loss of tax income = desperate labor force accepting lower paying jobs

I don't think this metric gives you the complete picture, although it's an interesting piece of the puzzle.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:26 | 2133093 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm a prime example. I'm a precision diamond tip tooling insert cutter on manual and CNC machines, with 25 years CNC machinist experience. I make $11.50/hr and I don't pay much in income tax so the government doesn't get much from me. I can't compete with 50 cent an hour Chines labor. It's insulting but I need to eat. I just thank God I have my house paid off or I'd never make it. The USA sucks now.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:36 | 2133110 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Tylers:

Robert Oak over Economic Populist is on fire with his analysis.

I just discovered his research amidst the whole Ritholtz 'green shoots' NFP fluff post, and I'm tellin' ya, it's worth a look:

About Those 1.252 Million People Who Dropped Out of the Labor Force
  • Submitted by Robert Oak on Mon, 02/06/2012 - 03:27

Excerpt:

Additionally the number of people age 55 to 64 years who entered not in the labor force from December to January was 300,000 or 39% of the civilian non-institutional population increase for this age group, which also includes the population controls. Yet the January labor participation rate for ages 55 to 64 is 63.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This implies a 61% labor participation rate for the 55-64 age bracket in the 2010 Census data population control adjustments only. 685,000 of the 721,000 December to January increase in age 65 or older civilian non-institutional population was categorized as not in the labor force, as expected.

 

The labor participation rate for those 65 years of age and older is 18%. How could possibly the labor participation rate for just the population adjustments be 17.1% then? The answer is due to the sharp decline in employed for ages 24-54. The non-institutional population declined but those working declined even more and those no longer counted in the labor force increased as well. Without this age group the population controls give a labor participation rate of 36.8%. Considering those over the age of 55 are 71.2% of that rate, and the January, not seasonally adjusted labor participation rate for those 55 and older is 40.1%, we have to assume the population controls of the age 55 and up bracket published must be a majority of people over the age of 65.

 

That said, don't let anyone claim people are not dropping out of the labor force due to not being able to find a job and aren't being counted any longer. You cannot blame an aging population or education on the below declining labor participation rates for those between 25 and 54 years of age.

http://www.economicpopulist.org/files/u1/laborpart2553.jpg

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:48 | 2133130 spencer
spencer's picture

as I said previously here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/explaining-yesterdays-seasonally-adjusted-...

participation rate is inverse to unemployment and should move inversly to it but it doesn't.

If the data is fudged - then you see both falling at the same time.

And that is the point. If the unemployment was steady - the participation rate would also be steady but it's falling.

The explanation from those Ritholz websites is pure bulshit.

If the guy was right - the overall participation ratio trend would be flat.

This guy is full of shit and just accept it.

 

Over longer term - the raising employment causes drop in unemployment and raise in participation rate.

If the data was indeed accurate - the participation rate wouldn't be falling like a waterfall.

They are fudging numbers EVERY MONTH and that's why you see participation rate in a long downtrend and at 63.4% now. Got it?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:04 | 2133325 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

@ Michael - You have become a meat based profit unit.  Keeping you humor under such conditions is priceless.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:32 | 2133490 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@Michael

Just think... If you were a midget tranny, you could make 10x that much working inside the capital beltway...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:04 | 2133568 g speed
g speed's picture

Michael--- after 30 years in a seafares union with skills that are unsaleable I run my own little ship ashore. I use my skill to be a self employed small manufacturer. If you could find a broken/used Bridgeport or a Hass or a Fadel etc, could you put it in your garage, fix it and start running parts for some small outfits that couldn't afford you even at $11 /hr. Not being a smart ass--just trying to help.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 12:01 | 2133970 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Eaton was hiring CNC's based on experience for $17-23. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:44 | 2133118 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Pretty much but the effects are spread across 3 or 4 areas:

Those now in part-time jobs too low to generate a taxable revenue

Those on unemployment- not highenough to push most households into taxable territory

Those getting full time jobs not making enough to be taxable

And my favorite... Independent and contract workers not being hired so not only do they not count un da BLS stats but das tax revenue is defintely not there.

Per a much earlier post we will end up like Greece--- Cash jobs evade taxes begets black market begets lower tax revenue begets more government programs begets cash jobs begets black market begets lower tax revenue and on and on and on.

I have 3 or 4 friends that were gainfully self-employed/contractors and are now out of work, didnt qualify for unemployment and are doing cash work to be able to pay the rent.  Labor is getting cheap and I am depending on it for building my security fence this spring.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:53 | 2133054 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Uhhh.... don't you mean "deluding"? :)

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:27 | 2133099 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

You meant to say as The Fed upgrades paper, The Gov downgrades people; net result: shit.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:53 | 2133133 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

Tyler,

Government "diluting"? No!

Government lying, spinning, obfuscating, conning? Yes!

Your numbers clearly indicate US workers have become on average 1.5% cheaper to employ. Bullish for corporations and their stocks. Bearish for people. Not something Government wants to tout.

"Morning in America"? No!

Evening in America? Yes!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:48 | 2133187 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Dollar lost 99% to gold since 71. That's dilution.

Before 71 people would say why hold gold, it makes no interest for you. Well dollar earns nothing in savings and every day it's worth even less.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:39 | 2133350 onthesquare
onthesquare's picture

More dilution to consider when you look at the Canadian $ and the American $.  A few years ago we needed $1.25C to buy $1.00US.  Now it is, and had been for a while, par or close to it.  In other words the dollars you are using to pay off your workers and your debtors is not worth as much as it was to some.  This does not hold true for all countries and definitely not the Euro where the US$ keeps getting stronger.

I hope you do not think of me as boosting because I am more than aware that we are loosing our grip on the toilet bole as the trip to the sewer continues.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 13:03 | 2134238 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

My name is August West.....................

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:12 | 2133445 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The only issue I can see with these numbers is for example, my family has increased tax deductions, we reduce our withholding for our paychecks. Does that mean our jobs are downgraded? I dunno. The tax system is so ridiculously complicated I wonder if these numbers aren't the most ideal thing to use. But it may be the best we have.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:49 | 2133533 X. Kurt OSis
X. Kurt OSis's picture

This is great.

Since the government has real liabilities it would be interesting to present this jobs quality number in both nominal and inflation adjusted. It looks like the real marginal utility would be much lower...

And these timing differences are going to catch up real fast as the boomer egg moves through the snake.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:43 | 2133032 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Actually, I love MCD - so change the holes example to flipping burgers and then eating the burgers themselves.  Now, things are sorta in balance, however the cost of cow meat may be going up as has been suggested by the herds moving further north.  So input costs will be rising hence burger flipping is getting more expensive to sustain.

However, further economic stimulus will be generated as people need urgent medical care for early onset heart disease, baby asprin, and hospital beds.

The US medical knowledge base in heart disease will skyrocket and be in demand throughout the world, thereby creating a new American industry.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:52 | 2133197 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

JonJon,

Your spin would go over well at CNBC. You should apply.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:02 | 2133433 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

I really would not consider employees of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and similar companies as doing anything as remotely useful as digging holes, let alone clearing up their own mess, by filling them in. It is more likely that the US Treasury is being used to recycle tax revenues to FIRE Sector who are offering IOUs on pink slips to paper the walls of the US Treasury. In short, American workers are seeing their taxes taken and given to provide for a New Aristocracy and the cost of tax collection driving increasing numbers of Americans to the wall or perpetual impoverishment.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:42 | 2133026 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I always have a very hard time watching any msm news especially on economic matters, the jobs report is a major rub to me.

People must be waking up to the bullshit that unemployment isn't as bad anymore because just talking with regular non financial real people, friends and family, nobody believes any real improvement has happened and they're still very worried about their jobs.

Would anyone have any context or data sets figuring in social issues other than SNAP? Something like a crime index or something.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:16 | 2133247 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

My preliminary HQI  data suggests the longer term economy trends are very much contracting. The HQI (Hooker Quality Index) at least judging by the photos of new hookers joining the industry via pictures posted on the New York city area Craigslist seem to be improving dramatically, which of course reads inverse to general economic trends.  I havn't done any boots on the ground field work though.. just judging by the photos.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:50 | 2133279 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Well get off the internet and go throw your boots on the ground.  We want some hard data.  Metaphorically speaking, that is.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:40 | 2133028 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

BLS changes its name to BS immediately.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:41 | 2133031 btb2010
btb2010's picture

Or the 'jobs' only 'exist' in the BS spouted by the  BLS and while you can fool the MSM all of the time but unlike Helicopter Ben and his band at the  FED the UST still hasn't begun manufacturing revenue out thin air quite yet. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:45 | 2133037 KingPin 999
KingPin 999's picture

Priced in!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:46 | 2133039 indianajohns04
indianajohns04's picture

Have there been any material changes in the employment and/or income taxes compared to last year? I know it doesn't change the debt problem but it could provide some more substance to the theory that income is eroding.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:50 | 2133045 Assetman
Assetman's picture

I'll admit that I'm a little slow on the take sometimes... but that graph is painful to try to interpret.

Someone is bound to say that you're attempting to frame the data to 87 days in order to suit your purposes.

I can take a look at inflation-adjusted wage and income data trends and tell there is plenty of slack in the labor market.  The comparision of tax receipts in aggregate, does expose the so-called job gains for what they are-- disappointing.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:53 | 2133055 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

As explained, the "87 "days represents the workday equivalent of the first 4 calendar months of fiscal 2011 and fiscal 2012, the ones for which we now have BLS job data on file as of Friday, and the comped prior period. The data is merely included to show that the current year has not benefited from either the "faster" addition of workers in 2012 compared to the prior year, nor the incremental 2 million employed workers added overall, which simply means that the "quality" of the jobs (earning power) is being diluted as the government is forced to scramble to get as many people employed as possible ahead of the election. All else being equal.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:07 | 2133070 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Understood.

I gather you can gather only so much information when your collecting FY'12 information year to date, huh? :)

Does this time period include the stretch of weeks where tax withholdings are seasonally at their peak?  I gather that comes during the summer months, when we get the opportunity to hire all the underemployed college kids.

I would think weather might be a factor, but FY'12 (since Oct 1)overall has been pretty clear sailing... with some very minor exceptions.

Of course a lot of us could just be putting '0' exemptions on our W-4 forms, and getting as much as we can now-- then worry about paying the tax man later.  I can gather that probably isn't happening en masse, though.

 

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:09 | 2133074 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The full revenue picture net of refunds will be known once tax refund season is over in April.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:46 | 2133120 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Careful in your analysis...this is leap year after all.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:26 | 2133478 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

89 is a fibonacci number... (close enough for government work)...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:44 | 2133117 alexwest
alexwest's picture

listen pal.. you 're really slow.. :(

# stretch of weeks where tax withholdings are seasonally at their peak

its comulative and if you compare same periods in 2011 and 2012 YOU DO GET RID
OF seasonallity.

#what do you mean about weather?

GOV SAID JOBS were CREATED.. TAXES ARE paid by internet/mail/etc..
what does the weather have anything to do w/ paying taxes?

are you working clerk at wall-mart?

alx

ps

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:09 | 2133147 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Yeah... I'll admit to you now that it's not my best of nights.

I'm just trying to do some critial thinking here... as there could be other factors at play.  Weather has every thing to do with taxe for a seasonal/outdoor worker... when you're a temp and/or an outdoor worker and the weather don't cooperate-- in such cases, the government can't withhold anything if you ain't putting in the hours to work.  In any case, I don't think this winter has been any more restrictive than prior winters. 

I think the most influential factor could well be that many individuals are electing to minimize their withholdings through their W-4's... and then briging out the checkbook come April 17th... or looking for that tax extension.  Such behavior may manifest itself in any number of ways-- but the goal is to hoard as much cash as possible until payment comes due.

As Tyler suggested, the proof will be in the pudding when we get through weeks after tax season.  And it really wouldn't explain everything, given the magnitude of the so-called "adjusted job gains".

Or... are you thinking I should just take everything that Tyler says at face value? :)

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:21 | 2133334 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

You are nice.  I would have just told "it" to fuck off.  Question everything.  And the fact you got this Tyler to answer you twice, is pretty impressive.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 12:05 | 2133986 Assetman
Assetman's picture

It's all good.  And yeah... the "Tylers" are pretty cool that way.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:46 | 2133359 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Actually Assetman, if you put 0 exemptions on your w-4 you would have MORE taxes taken out not less.  To get as much as you cannow you need to put a high number.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 12:01 | 2133971 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Little wonder, then, that I'm always on the wrong side the the tax withholding guessing game. :)

The good news is that I've somehow figured it out enough so that I'm bringing out the checkbook each and every year for the IRS. 

My check will be in the mail this year too... and the letter will be postmarked on April 17.

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:32 | 2133396 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

"Of course a lot of us could just be putting '0' exemptions on our W-4 forms" -

That's what I did last year.

My accountant asked why I want to give the government more money when it would be of less value when tax season came around? Of course I'll be paying this year, but in theory, according to my accountant, we're slightly ahead.


Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:56 | 2133059 KingPin 999
KingPin 999's picture

All the graph shows is the tax receipts for the FY to date for FY 2011 and 2012. It shows perfectly that the receipts are the same as last year, which is demonstrating that despite the gov't saying we generated 2milllion jobs they certainly aren't generated tax receipts. Whats so hard to understand. 

 

As for the 87 days I'm sure this is all the days from the beginning of the fiscal year to today. The government doesn't accept tax deposits on weekends so its about right on the timing to compare last year to this year. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:52 | 2133051 kito
kito's picture

goldman sachs collaborating with nypd to ensure you are safe...

 

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/02/06/wall-streets-secret-spy-center-run-for-the-1-by-nypd/

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:56 | 2133061 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Although the prison population is increasing inmate employment does not contribute to tax revenues.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:14 | 2133591 g speed
g speed's picture

However it does show up on Corp run prison (privitized) balance sheets. Free prison labor has some profit for the Corp or they wouldn't be in the business, right?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 01:59 | 2133063 acompletedouche
acompletedouche's picture

not to worry,just buy more APPL.....

Problem solved.

Again

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:02 | 2133068 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

Does this take into account the fact that the FY2012 period beginning in October did NOT withhold 2% of the Social Security taxes that were withheld in 2011?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:16 | 2133084 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Are you referring to the increase in Social Security Taxes (and withholdings) in 2012?

The Social Security tax rate for 2012 will revert back to its normal rate of 6.2% for employees or 12.4% for self-employed persons. For 2011 there was a one-time reduction in the Social Security tax rate to 4.2% for employees and 10.4% for self-employed persons.

 

From a planning perspective, more Social Security taxes will be automatically deduction from paychecks starting in January as the rate reverts back to 6.2%, and people earning more than the old $106,800 wage limit will see more of their wages subject to Social Security withholding. Self-employed persons, similarly, may need to increase their estimated tax payments for 2012 to take into account the higher self-employment tax rate.

Source

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:43 | 2133115 KingPin 999
KingPin 999's picture

Easiest way to look at it is that 4.2% rate (EE portion) applied to all of calendar year 2011, and the first 2 months of calendar year 2012 (will have to be extended again if it will apply to all of calendar year 2012). See link.  

 

http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=251650,00.html

 

Therefore, this analysis is for 10/1/11 - 2/5/12   FY 2012 as compared to 

10/1/10- 2/5/11 FY 2011

 

Therefore, 3 months of FY 2011 (oct through dec) did not have the tax cut and you would expect those receipts to be higher as a result. By my calculations this could only make a $25 Billion difference on the highest side. Which is a little blip on the left hand scale of the chart shown above. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:06 | 2133069 Zombies On Toast
Zombies On Toast's picture

The BLS publishes the number of full-time and part-time workers from the household data in Table A-9. The data goes back to Jan 1968. If you plot these you can see a big drop in full-time workers in 2008, and a big increase in part-time workers. The ratio of full-time/part-time is at 3.99 in Jan 2012. This ratio is at all-time lows during the last 3 years.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:09 | 2133073 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

Instead of manufacturing jobs, the growth is in service jobs as in fast food restaurants, bartenders, waitresses, cotton pickers, etc. who are all earning minimum wage.  Obama the great wants a plantation of white cotton pickers. That's the new economy.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:19 | 2133087 connda
connda's picture

Cotton pickers.  I think you've nailed it.  The US labor force is turning into 21th century equivant of cotton pickers.  Rich plantation owners -----> Everyone else. 

Goodbye manufacturing and the American Dream; Hello Neo-feudalism.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:53 | 2133132 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

SERVice sector, as in SERVants.

We're the house slaves. We make sure the masters (1%, Illuminati, Banksters, The Joneses, take your pick) are well fed, well clothed, safe, have access to their toys and we help them make sure that the field slaves (China, India, Mexico, any country stuck making the crap we consume) are kept in their place and do their job correctly.

It's not a "new economy," it's pretty old. The thing is, the masters lost sight of their finances and have to kick some of the house slaves out into the field. So now these individuals are finally realizing how screwed up this system is.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:30 | 2133259 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Bud trimmers these days. Cotten is all mechanized.

NFP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:21 | 2133472 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Have Friskars will work

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:39 | 2133268 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

It's not as though manufacturing is completely dead but jobs in the manufacturing sector haven't expanded with the population, they've contracted since the late 70s/early 80s from almost 20 million jobs to almost 12 million today and the labor force participation rate for men tracks the decline well. Since around 1997, almost 5 million manufacturing jobs have gone bye-bye.

On each of the following graphs, click "edit graph" and select January 1970 for the start of the observation date range. Scroll down and click "Redraw graph". Pay attention to the period from the 1980 recession on.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CEU3000000001?cid=32311

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU01300001?cid=32443

The overall LFPR for men has been declining for a long time but after a recession when manufacturing jobs recover, it stabilizes until the next recession. There has been a drop in the total number of those jobs after every recession since 1981. The last time manufacturing jobs "recovered" was around '97, it's been downhill ever since and that's a lot of jobs, many of which paid decent wages that were available to younger/middle aged men with little or no secondary education. Manufacturing jobs obviously aren't occupied by men only but they've been the go to sector for many men over the years.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:13 | 2133078 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

OT : The latest insanity... China has asked Harper for a seat on the arctic natural ressources claims...

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Commentary_China_pivot_or_pirouette_999....

China also informed Canada last week that it wanted a seat at the arctic table, which means it seeks the same status as the eight countries whose territory lies within the Arctic Circle. It will be Canada's turn to chair the group in 2013.

And this won't end well :

Colonel-General [ret.] Leonid Ivashov, former member of the Russian Joint Chiefs of Staff : What they did in Libya is nearly identical to what Hitler and his armies did against Poland and then Russia. Today, therefore, Russia is defending the entire world from Fascism.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3bf1H9EZfU

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:15 | 2133081 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Tax receipts are also going down due to a 'small but growing' minority working for cash these days...Employers are making the tough decisions...Cheat or die...But why not...Morality has been pretty much destroyed and it's flowing downhill...

The BLS, Dept. of Labor, and their MSM 'spinsters' will do their worst moving forward...Credibility is certainly dwindling...Even more so after last friday...That was a 'whopper' for sure...

What's next?  Romney gets more votes in Maine than there are voting age people?

This is all really starting to resemble the 'Fall of the Soviet Union'...The twists and tall tales will increase...

I don't think we've seen anything yet...

I get more upset and scared pretty much daily...Started going on long walks again....

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:30 | 2133104 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

Deleuzian,

"Morality has been pretty much destroyed and it's flowing downhill..."

Yes, just as a fish rots from the head down, a country rots from the government down as elucidated by Leo Tolstoy in the 1880's

"The Truth is that the State is a Conspiracy Designed not only to Exploit but Above ALL Corrupt its Citizens"   Why?  So they will accept and tolerate the corruption of the State.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:54 | 2133134 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Agreed...It's pathetically sad...It's really starting to piss me off! 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:32 | 2133106 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

 

I get more upset and scared pretty much daily...Started going on long walks again....

Been doing the same thing in the last few years... when I get pissed, I go take a 2 hre walk...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:08 | 2133146 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

I'm getting a little "chubby" around the waist line myself...There's tons of nice nature rich paths around were I am...But I know sooner or later...I'll be dragged into the concrete jungle/war zone to make a stand against all this BS!!!

I hate feeling inhibited...It makes me so so unhappy!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:21 | 2133090 r00t61
r00t61's picture

I ain't scurred.

Keynesians, Monetarists, and MMTers keep assuring me that the only thing needed for a healthy nation is a printing press.

When we run out of ink and electronic bits in RAM, then I'll be scurred.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:23 | 2133091 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

UBS below exp.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:26 | 2133094 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Silly Tyler... it's because of Obama's tax cuts. He helps the poor you know, not like the evil republicans! Maybe if you stopped fighting in basements to look tough and actually watched CNN and MSNBC, you would understand!

/sarc

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:27 | 2133098 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

The problem is....the majority of the market follows bloomberg, cnbc, reuters etc instead of zero hedge so no matter what is exposed here it doesn't get the exposure.  I believe the institutions etc know this as well but they roll with the punches to rake in their dough......playing off what the main media machine spins as true to the public.  They don't care about the real picture.  Look at how little effect the seriousness of Greece and the powder keg in the middle east has had on the markets.  Of course we all know it's manipulation, fabrication and illusion.  How long can they spin for until the runaway train runs out of track????

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:43 | 2133116 Diamond_Dave
Diamond_Dave's picture

 last train leaving tuesday night.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:27 | 2133124 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Vaiman...That's a really really good question...Propaganda not only has to be believable...But it must feed on itself...It can't afford to miss a beat...It must strive to permeate the target at every turn...Sure...'Vertical propaganda' (Big Media) is strong but starting to loose its vise-like-grip...'Horizontal propaganda' (word of mouth...), one could argue is somewhat ineffectual with all of the alt. media, OWS, Grass roots etc...Or People just getting more pissed as time goes by and our Country goes down the F**kin toilet...A lot of this depends on what the Millenials do as a whole...Xer's and Boomers to a lesser extent...We have to be a beacon of relevance and guide the younger people...Many are quite aware that 'things are just plain wrong'...But what to do?  They ask themselves...

I fear a 'cyber-type' attack of sorts...MUST KEEP THE PEOPLE SAFE FROM TERRORISM...This, more than likely, will have unknowable results...My guess is a lot of people would say "enough"

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:27 | 2133100 alexwest
alexwest's picture

THANK YOU @TYLER.. THANK YOU PAL..

FINALLly some printed this..

the ugly truth is NUMBER OF JOBS IS IRRELEVANT.. what is important is QUALITY
AKA HOW MACH IS MADE, AND HOW MACH IS TAKEN AS TAXES..

USA FEDERAL GOV OPERATES NOT FROM POINT OF #JOBS, BUT FROM POINT OF COLLECTED TAXES..

@tyler.. here's another good idea.. show chart rolling 3month sum of ALL TAXES COLLECTED.. its barely %0 y/y.. (see DTS)

HOW IS IT POSSIBLE if econonomy /labor market/avg salaries are growing??

alx

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:48 | 2133123 Questan1913
Questan1913's picture

Alexwest,

We can just look around us and see with our own eyes that which is happening.  Look at the number of people of working age who are out and about and unemployed.  It is amazing.  Then take notice of the bagger at the local grocery store who looks kinda like an engineering type in his fifties, because he is.  Or working at Radio Shack.  The truth is if you are any age and lose a good job....you are pretty much done, and if you are over 45 also and lose your job you have received the equivalent of an economic death sentence. 

"HOW IS IT POSSIBLE..."  Its NOT.  We are simply being lied to day in and day out.  It's like someone is telling you during broad daylight that the sun hasn't risen yet, over and over......AND MOST BELIEVE IT!!!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:31 | 2133105 alexwest
alexwest's picture

##
Translation: based on the above, even as America was "creating" jobs, 2 million to be precise (and 2.5 million between Sept 30, 2010 and January 31, 2012), the government tax revenues created by these jobs actually declined in 2012 compared to 2011, on a per job basis, by roughly 1.5%!

This analysis ignores completely any seasonal fudging, census adjustments, "updated population controls" and all those other "fudge factors" which keep BLS Ph.D.s employed (especially during election years). It is pure math based on numbers reported by both the US Treasury and the BLS

##

AMAZINGly CORRECT / PERFECT..

FBI should take down BLS site and put this on start page.. :)
jsut kidding or not :(((((

alx

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:40 | 2133111 spencer
spencer's picture

well, it seems we have a solid proof of the NFP data fudging

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:55 | 2133138 chancee
chancee's picture

Won't the BLS get a slap in the face in next month's job report when they can't use this annual adjustment gimmick, etc.? Plus they'll be using the same census data they did for this month.... So this may come back to bite them in the ass... No?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:56 | 2133139 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hanging Lady: Nervous?
Ted Striker: Yes.
Hanging Lady: First time?
Ted Striker: No, I've been nervous lots of times.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 02:59 | 2133142 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

No wonder you hear Buffett and other wealthy people (one's who benefit from perpetuating the ponzi) talk about wanting to pay more in taxes or tax the rich.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:07 | 2133145 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Are you SURE the payroll tax reduction didn't impact ANY part of the 2011 or 2012 numbers. You are using government FISCAL years. So have to look back to Oct 2010?

If you can state unequivacobaly no to the above then this analysis is gold.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 03:19 | 2133156 non_anon
non_anon's picture

QA the tried and tru guv way

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 04:35 | 2133222 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Welcome to the recovery, where all the unemployed will be greeters at your local Walmart. Hah. Joke's on you!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 05:49 | 2133277 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Thanks again ZH for one of the very few places where there is real analysis of the BLS numbers beyond the 'headline' numbers.

My experience, checking in with local long-time friends, is that the so-called shadow economy is soaking up far more of the numbers than the BLS can fudge. Part-time cash jobs to supplement unemployment, barter, being frugal, plus there is a substantial dope trade in probably every city in this fine land - folks get by. Need some work done on your place and can't afford a licensed contractor? It probably won't take much looking to find a bootleg guy that will do it for a lot less money, especially if the money is cash, and not a check. All sorts of new (and the usual old) communual living stuff - take in a renter who pays part money and part by working around the place, many more ideas.

 

People are creative, and there is a substantial army of folks that avoid welfare and stay off the streets one damn way or another. Who is counting them? Hard. Especially since they don't want to be counted.

 

So how big is this 'shadow' economy? Anybody making any reasonable estimates out there? WAGs?

 

Tyler, your analysis of the deterioration of job quality is really worthwhile. I hope you stay on it in the coming months - sooner or later the MSM may pick up on it.  "Non-farm payrolls" indeed! It is hard to believe otherwise from 'This is not going to end well'.

 

NFP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:27 | 2133620 g speed
g speed's picture

Gov't is obsolete--

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:13 | 2133296 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

Perhaps a stupid question, but are the income tax (and other deduction) rates the SAME in both of the periods you are comparing?

If you have a couple of million extra jobs created but the tax revenue collected is the same, that either means (as you argue) that the jobs are all super-low paying jobs (or the ones who already had jobs suffered big pay cuts), or it could be that the tax rate is lower and so the government's total intake is less.  Or, another explanantion would be that there's a massive uptick in jobs that pay but which do not show up in tax collection stats because they're "cash under the table" jobs.  Whenever govt gets big (as it has thanks President Uber-Socialist) then you tend to get growth in the black market/ shadow economy (whatever you wanna call it). 

Now, if you tell me that tax rates actually went UP during this period, then it really truly shows how horrible the economy is:  2 million jobs created, tax rates higher, and yet total government tax revenue is unchanged?  Brutal...

And yet, despite this and a million other clear indicators of failure, the frikkin Republicans will probably still totally screw it up and hand over another 4 years to this pseudo-European Welfare Society cheerleader....

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 06:34 | 2133304 Caggge
Caggge's picture

This is the kind of information that should be shown on the MSM. Where are the real journalists? If anyone produced this data to the people, they would be labelled an extremist. I guess in the end it is the populations fault for not demanding the truth from their employees aka politicians and reporters.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:17 | 2133462 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

They are all fired or their houses got shot up in NJ.

http://grist.org/politics/food-2010-11-15-food-fight-safety-modernization-act-harm-small-farms/full/

Dan Rather fired over G.W. Bush "Champaign Brigade" comment and on going story. Read further down for more controversial stories he tried to bring to the publics attention over his career.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Rather

Now, we live in an "opinion" based talking head journalism MSM.

 

-JP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:36 | 2133345 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Three factors also need to be accounted for:

1. $ weakness helps to bring lower value labour into the labour force

2. Empployment growth without significant real capital invesmtent inevitably means diminishing returns to labour.

3. the relative returns to capital increase - hence corporate earnings holding up relatively (emphasis here) well.

all factors are consistent with a recovery and rebalancing facing the US economy. 

sturcutural unemployment is on the rise, a sad part of that is many that no longer become "employable" and hence exit the labour force.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:44 | 2133358 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

I mentioned this elsewhere but here's another factor: The proliferation of the multiple income household since the 70s when women started becoming more of a factor in the workforce and later, when it became a necessity for some families as the era of easy credit really took off and the housing bubble was just emerging from the womb. People stopped looking at credit as loans that were readily available to them in case of emergency and started thinking of it as free money that they just had to pay back a little bit at a time. They could upgrade from a Pentium to a Pentium II, Windows 3.0 to Windows 95 and hey look, there's Windows 98. We had "affordable" cell phones that you could clip on your belt that fifteen years before weighed ten pounds with the battery and were considered a status symbol.

In ways, both the tech boom and the housing bubble were boons to the overall economy that helped create debt prisons for far too many people. The last few years as housing has slowly died, we've had a mini-tech boom fueled by iGadgets, HDTVs and smartphones. People paying too much money for crap they don't need simply because they feel like they have to have the latest of this or that. Some commercials basically say it outright, like the one where people talk about buying things they obviously can't afford because they feel "The wealth effect" due to their possessing a particular phone.

Getting back to the original topic, there's a table in the census data, I believe it was HNIC-5, that tracks household income. Rounding the numbers (mostly from memory), the census data lists 118 million households. Of those, 46 million are multiple income households, 37 million had 2 incomes, 7 million had 3 incomes and 2 million had four incomes. I believe the total number of jobs in those households was over 100 million. Whether those are full time, part time or seasonal, do the math and that's a hell of a lot of jobs concentrated in well under half of the households in the country. Considering the census data showed 27 million homes with nobody earning a wage or salary, you're talking about 46 million homes with 100 million people working and 27 million with no jobs. I'd say that's significant because those households are guaranteed to be sucking off the government teat, likely multiple teats at one time with all the social assistance programs available at both the federal and state level.

There is no quick fix for employment as long as we maintain a credit based economy and the scum in DC know it. They can tout X million new jobs and it will sound like a lot to the blinder wearing sheep in this country that lack perspective but it will not happen overnight or even "overdecade" and assuming those jobs actually materialize, by the time they do it won't be enough. This country is screwed, blued and tattooed unless 300 million people are slapped in the face collectively and wake the hell up. That's not happening. /Rant

Yours,

Tax unit XXX-XX-XXXX

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:48 | 2133362 Archon7
Archon7's picture

I suppose it could be attributable to people taking fewer allowances (withholding less) on account of the poor economy also?  The real test will be taxes paid per job, the stats of which won't be available for a couple years.  The IRS reports the average tax return in the $30K and up categories (these are people who actually pay taxes) for 2007 vs 2009 (the latest year available) as $14,524 vs. $11,688.  In the $30K and up categories, there were 75,079,981 returns filed in 2007 vs. 72,773,215 in 2009, and total tax revenues paid $1,115B in 2007 vs $866B in 2009.  In other words, between 2007 and 2009, not only was there a decrease in the average tax return of almost $2,900, but there were also about 2.3 million fewer returns in tax-paying categories, and approximately $250 billion decrease in tax revenues.

I suppose a little caution is advisable in the analysis, though - I hear the FBI is looking for people like us.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 07:55 | 2133366 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Like I said before...seen clearly in the participation rate of those with less than HS education vs participation rate of all the other groups.. Those with less than HS ed. are the ONLY group to have had their participation numbers rise over the last 20 yrs and stabilize through the recession.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS11327659

All other groups look like this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS11327662

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:18 | 2133380 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

What are the numbers for those between 18-25 with less than a high school diploma? 25 and over is hardly conclusive and even if it does disregard people between the age of 18-25, you don't have to be a Harvard grad to work in many segments of the service providing sectors by any means.

The second link is people over 25 with a bachelor's degree, which disregards the aforementioned age segment of the population with or without high school diplomas or those with associate's degrees. That is hardly "All other groups".

This was in reply to "Papaswamp".

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:04 | 2133372 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

For anyone interested in finding real economic data, try the following link and go to town. Whichever section you decide to peruse, there is a drop down box that has "Show All, Frequency, Seasonal Adjustment and Units" as options. Choose "Seasonal Adjustment" then "Not Seasonally Adjusted", then "Filter". NSA indicates real numbers that are not manipulated. You can also edit the graphs available to compare NSA and SA numbers to see just how much this country is being duped.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

The numbers are the same as those released by BlS, Treasury, etc but are easy to work with and can be downloaded.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:06 | 2133374 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

please note FBI: mission: 1.protect the gov 2. protect the gov 3.identify threats to the gov. 4. eliminate the threats.

seen this all before in cambodia to Germany.

to all law enforcement: the people are the enemy. now obey.

see "They Live" for a look at the current USA.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:13 | 2133378 I should be working
I should be working's picture

On the year over year tax withholding: isn't there a correlation here to the lousy market of 2011? Lower bonuses and lower capital gains would push down income tax withholding.

Still I agree with the main point. The headline 8.3% is being driven by labor force (non)participation, not an expanding work force.

Maybe if the rate goes down the fed will at least slow their dollar debasing strategy, which does nothing but take money away from the economy by pushing up commodity prices.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:14 | 2133379 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Payroll tax holiday began Jan 1, 2011. So withholdings for late 2010 should be higher than for late 2011. You need to take this out to do an apples to apples comparison.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:21 | 2133385 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Our Socialist Masters of the Liberal Plantation lie, cheat, steal, murder and fudge BLS statistics ! So some of us cotton picking field negroes are fighting back and working for cash and fudging our taxes a tad ! Don't do what the Master says.....do what the Master do ?  Monedas  2012  Fudging your taxes is the patriotic duty of every freedom loving American ! It's the least you can do !

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:25 | 2133388 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This should illustrate to the American people that we either get rid of this clown or its over for our children. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:40 | 2133411 spentCartridge
spentCartridge's picture

I'm a prime example. I'm a precision diamond tip tooling insert cutter on manual and CNC machines

**********************************************************************************

 

Guy.

 

I feel your pain.

 

Engineering success in this (unrealistic mofo universe) is physically impossible.

 

Even from a human, perspective standpoint? 

 

 

Rhetorical questions do not require a vote or any answer.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:44 | 2133414 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

I emailed 3 copies of this post this morning. One out to CNBC, One to the Dept. of Labor and the last one to the White House.Gub.

Hopefully they might get an education. Zero Hedge Rules!

-JP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:45 | 2133416 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

STARVE THE BEAST! GO GALT! Off Grid Solar System Going up in Spring. Expanding the Garden to an acre. Ordered 7 more fruit trees to go with the 2  already planted. More berries coming. Still trying to convince the wife to get laying hens.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:26 | 2133428 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Just be advised of S510, Has provisions for penalties for raising dust on your farm too. Good read, my family are completely ignoring this Bill passage.

http://grist.org/politics/food-2010-11-15-food-fight-safety-modernization-act-harm-small-farms/full/

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 08:50 | 2133420 Kranskee
Kranskee's picture

Forgive a stupid question from an ignorant Canuck, but didn't the withholding tax rates drop between January 31, 2011 and January 31, 2012?  Or was that the year before?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:00 | 2133429 el-greco
el-greco's picture

I hope someone has passed this article to that chap on the the big picture who was ranting something about ZH spoiling the party. But Biederman also had some words about the numbers last friday, using tax receipts as his calc method. In short, both more convincing arguments than those of a chap moaning about negative attitudes.

At any rate the argument about the deteriorating quality of work is a good point. The 5 year export drive Obama refers to must partly have to do with this. If the trend is towards turning the US into a global shop floor with renmimbis doing all the buying/importing, ZH's numbers make sense to explain this lower quality employment on the rise.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:03 | 2133434 kralizec
kralizec's picture

If anybody else but a democrat was in the White House, this (and much more) would be all over the MFM!

Think anybody will notice until election day has come and gone?

Newp!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:10 | 2133444 divedivedive
divedivedive's picture

If a tech company, say in San Francisco, moves (or acquires) employee resources say in Bangalore are those jobs counted as jobs for that tech company by the BLS ? Surely there would be no US tax withholdings on those 'employees'.

You hear so often 'can't find qualified workers...' and executives use that as an excuse to ask for more visas to bring in skilled low-paying employees. These 'sponsered' people are now stuck in their lower (by yesterday's standards) paying jobs for years (is it 5 or 7 ?).

The truth is that in many of those companies the 'brillance' which made the company has long since left. Yet too often the executives have remained and their slice of the money available grows. Is there a governent accounting bucket for 'Market Value' of Insider Transactions  ? People get all worked up about 'Wall Street' compensation. They should have a look at executive compensation for dieing tech companies which are holding onto life by coming up with cheaper labor solutions.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:11 | 2133588 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It basically goes back to what's good for the goose is NOT good for the gander; the type of "Platinum Citizenship" Dylan Ratigan talked about in his blog.

The truth is that in many of those companies the 'brillance' which made the company has long since left. Yet too often the executives have remained and their slice of the money available grows

It just doesn't happen in the tech sector, it happens in almost EVERY sector: textiles, cars, financial systems.  Nepotism is RAMPANT....I mean its ok to have a little, but the son or daughter who got a job only because daddy works for the firm isn't going to be the hungriest person in the company (or have the best motives) to actually IMPROVE the brand, the sector, etc.....rather than just simply making money. 

When the big CEO execs get fat and happy......so does the government ssector they buy, and the people follow.  Then others get caught up in the ideological blame game that really is circle jerk fodder for MSM outlets.  No one has the balls to say what they mean, and listen to it in a critical way, anymore. 

The technocrats are trying to take away risk and evolution out of capitalism.  That doesn't work.  Ask Soviet Russia.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:18 | 2133463 edwardo1
edwardo1's picture

Yes, dilution, just like so many food products these days which are packaged such that, while a bag of potato chips, for example, does not cost any more this month than last, the ratio of chips to air in the bag grows over that same period.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:31 | 2133487 Catullus
Catullus's picture

This is very disturbing for the sycophants. The only reason "jobs" is such such a politicized issue is that the income tax is the major source of govt thugs stealing from people in the form of taxes. Some of them are dumb enough to believe that if they spend money on jobs programs that they'll get a good portion of it back in the form of payroll tax receipts.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:38 | 2133500 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Oh so now you're not supposed to bitch about taxes? Fuck the FBI!  If they started losing their jobs and kept having tax bills shoved up their asses like I do so I can support other peoples gov't jobs they'd be complaing also.  I guess this means watch what you say to your HR Block agent.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:41 | 2133506 AU5K
AU5K's picture

 

 

Hide the decline

 

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:47 | 2133531 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

So how big is this 'shadow' economy? Anybody making any reasonable estimates out there? WAGs?

Bigger than you think - maybe in the hundreds of millions.  You also have to include the big boom in gambling (and I have knowledge of this as I am a part of the sector), which maybe only 3rd to drugs and bootleg item sales, in terms of shadow revenue. 

Underground poker rooms, bookies, competitive video gaming, and even fantasy football, are all alternative methods for people to try to make cash on the side.  I know if it wasn't for poker/sports betting in these last 10 years, there would of been months I would NOT have been able to pay rent, especially when I was under/unemployed. 

In deference to Clint Eastwood....the second half is not about to start. It's the fourth quarter......5 seconds left on the clock.

Yeah, and Andy Reid is the coach.  We are so fucked.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:12 | 2133587 juggalo1
juggalo1's picture

I would think gambling is even less a service sector job than prostitution.  I mean gamblers truly produce no value.  Everything they earn they take from someone else, minus the house cut and the effort IF they are lucky.  At least with a prostitute you know the value you are getting, with a gamble on the side!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:22 | 2133611 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Holy crap, totally forgot about the "sex sector" of the shadow economy!  I guess I couldn't really gage how much money is involved in it due to the fact it also happens to be the one with the most middle men like strip club owners, pimps, and of course, the fact that the money gained by strippers and whores goes right into their children (and their drug habits). 

And I disagree that "gamblers don't create value".  First of all, there is a demand for it.  Demand to me = value because without demand, we can't create supply to meet said demand. 

Plus, gambling DOES creat jobs; albeit menial ones.  Security, dealers, floor staff, cards and chips, tables, waitors, real estate....all needed to make a gambling enterprise work.  AND if the internet gaming sector were allowed to exist, you can add now having IT staff, and a highly skilled one at that, to create an environment for me to chase flush draws.

I've probably created more jobs sitting at a poker table for 7 years of my life than John Boehner has in his entire career.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 09:57 | 2133556 monopoly
monopoly's picture

This post makes a lot of sense. We see no pick up here in spending in my state and our economy is still a disaster. I knew for years the "quality" of jobs was BS. This proves that. If we need to raise the debt ceiling again Before the election there will be hell to pay. What a story that will be. Will make the super bowl look like a high school football game.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:09 | 2133580 juggalo1
juggalo1's picture

The real sad part is that most workers probably did not see pay cuts during this period.  If that is the case then the bulk of the decrease comes from the "additional jobs" being way below mean.  I know it takes longer to recover from a "balance sheet" recession, but geez, it's been 5 years now.  I'm starting to get exhausted.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 10:29 | 2133631 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Well, employers are "standing pat" with the wages right now......but yet again, I view this as a pay cut because that's not even keeping up with the inflated and bogus CPI number, nevermind the money supply.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 11:10 | 2133753 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Also remember when you go from a full time to a part time job you lose benefits (healthcare especially). So aside from taking a pay cut, you have to cough up $$ for your own personally funded healthcare/dental/vision. You get no 401K with company matching funds. So this is really a crumbling economy for the 99%.

BTW, the 1% (or even top 5%) probably skews these tax numbers dramatically. So the 1.5% decline in tax revenue would look a whole lot worse if you exclude the rich SOBs.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 12:03 | 2133978 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

while i believe that it is true that the quality of jobs in the usa is declining, your argument did not support your thesis...

what you did not consider are factors controlling withholdings or income...1. bad weather days 2. household formation or deformation 3. dependent configuration etc etc...

these may not be material factors, but until they are addressed they stand as potential flaws in your case....

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 15:05 | 2134748 JeffC
JeffC's picture

no matter what number the BLS and Obama tout there are close to 80 million folks who are of working age but are out of work ...  they all have friends and relatives who know their situation ...  that makes over 100 million Americans who know thru personal experience that things are not getting better ...  in this case their "preception" actually lines up with reality and no amount of MSM spin will change it ...

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