The Race To Debase In All Its Glory
Lest anyone forget what the real story is, here is a reminder. Thank you neo-Keynesian economics for making a mockery of non-scientific notation.
Courtesy of Grant Williams
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As ZH said long ago, anything not nailed down is going to evaporate.
Just a sec while I head to the local hardware store for a hammer and some 9 pennies.
the CNY is the FUTURE LOL
so much for all those yuan reserve currency morons....
I wonder if Jim Rogers wonders why he and his kids are developing asthma?
And how could THAT great observation get redded? Balanceing you out with a green.
Someone had just bought some Chinese real estate and hadn't considered that smog levels might not be good for their lungs.
Or they hold Jim Rogers in guru status because he understands the Fiat Ponzi better than the average billionaire investor even though he doesn't understand the whole picture, and they hate to see their idols tossed aside.
People usually shoot the messenger.
In HK they have a smog alert system, 0-100. When I was there a year ago it was >400. They were basically telling people not to breathe. SGP (where Rogers is) is better tho
Doesn't Jim Rogers live in Singapore? Crazy spitting/urination/gum laws aside they are one of the most economically free/streamlined countries on the planet.
Jim Rogers lives in Asia, but he still is a US citizen.
Jim Rogers is just mad because his money changing business isn't getting much interest while he sits on it.
He knows that when shit hits the fan (China vs USA war), Chinese masses are not going to be kind to short whitey no matter how much money he has. Tiny ass Singapore will be gone with one missile.
European elits turned to socialism (bribing the masses) in order to stay in power hidden behind politics, while Chinese/French/Americans fought off their ruling elite.
US China War? Not in the cards. I don't think you get the score, the real war is financial now. There will not be any war between the major economic/financial centers of the world. There's a reason there's a desperate search for non-nuclear developing countries to invade: they are the only acceptable targets left. Soon, the Middle East and Asia will run out of targets, and the sights will be turned on Africa for various invasions just to keep the war machine alive.
Now? We only have financial wars. Iraq 1 (saddam didnt want to use dollar for trade)Libya (ghaddafis currency would have raped the dollar) Afghan (needed dope money to get more war money) Iran (dont want to use petrodollar)..wars are from banks AND govnts.
rogers lives in singapore
He lives in Singapore.
While you were adding to your 'lazy Greeks lounging at beach cafe' bullshit China was quietly puttin' in work:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020436940457721083105454038...
You missed it because you're a retarded person easily steered by the nose by media main stream or otherwise.
Have to agree. It seems to hate the idea of ideas other might get when misinterpreting their meaning.
Don't be saying any shit up in here against Silver 'n Gold now.. I'z might start cavin' in
so much for all those yuan reserve currency morons....
Yep, at first glance $4.5 trillion on PBOC's balance sheet looks pretty bad.
However, last year China's trade surplus with America was $295 billion. That's just America. It doesn't count China's trade surplus with the rest of the world.
Last year America's trade deficit worldwide was $737 billion (same chart).
China with $4.5 trillion on PBOC's balance sheet is way better off than America with $3 trillion on Fed's balance sheet.
So yes, Yuan might well be the next world reserve currency.
After all, how did USD become the world reserve currency? Simple. America had the biggest trade surplus back then.
Opinions like yours sound credible ...until the facts are brought in.
That's correct, value is not derived from quantity but quality. China's trade surplus suggests that its enormous credit engine is at the very least more rooted in real stuff that people need, than anywhere else.
Your facts are not very illuminating. The US became the Reserve currency because, starting in the 1920"s, we had the largest reserves of gold that could be used to pyramid all the european currencies off of after WWI.
We became a mega trading surplus nation after WWII because we were the only ones with a manufacturing capability. However, by 1987, we became a trading deficit nation.
The real kicker was the commitment by the Saudi's to use the dollar for all oil sales in 1971. The dollar became the only currency used for oil and that allowed for the exponential explosion in money supply that maintained our position as the reserve currency.
The yuan lacks a bond market of sufficient size to become the reserve currency, that will require the issuance of debt either to their people or the world or both. Their balance sheet means nothing.
The 4.5 trillion on their balance sheet and the quality of that debt is an interesting issue, but this chart doesn't break that down. Remember also, as the yuan is tied to the dollar, as the FED prints, so must the Chinese to maintain the fix.
Rubbish. What 'assets' do you think the PBoC uses to match its Yuan liability? Seashells?
The Yuan bond market is huge. What's on the books of the PBoC is a fraction of the existing debt. Just like the 'assets' of the Fed are but a fraction of the existing USD denominated debt.
Obviously, you have no idea of the bond market share needed to be a reserve currency. There are not enough yuan bonds.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/309671-powershares-chinese-yuan-dim-sum-bond-portfolio-risky-but-may-be-worth-a-bite
this will give you a beginning.
Your facts are not very illuminating. The US became the Reserve currency because, starting in the 1920"s ...
Yes you can argue gold backing is what made USD world reserve currency, but America also had the biggest trade surplus.
Since no currency is backed by gold these days, trade surplus is the deciding factor now, and China has far and away the largest trade surplus on the planet.
Why is that? Very simple. Trade surplus brings currency back into the nation (repatriates currency), maintaining demand (and value) around the world for that currency.
America's $700 billion trade deficit is pouring $700 billion more dollars onto world markets each year, diluting their value (in spite of US military action to keep other nations on the dollar).
Now we have Russia's and China's decision to buy Iranian oil in their respective currencies, reducing demand for US dollars even further.
At some point the rest of the world is going to drop the rapidly devaluing USD and switch to the appreciating Yuan.
It's just a matter of time.
Please show how trade surplus is the deciding factor. It is one factor amongst many. If that was true, the dollar would not have been as strong as it was in the nineties and up to 2006.
Trade surplus is not the deciding factor. It has to do with demand for the currency. As you expand marketshare, you can demand payment in your currency. This expands the need for your currency and allows you to create a larger money supply- which creates bonds. Without a bond supply, your currency supply is limited and unable to be a reserve currency. Until China resolves its' supply of treasuries and eurobonds with a replacement in yuan bonds- a reserve currency is not happening.
By your argument, Germany, Norway and Sweden could make the euro the reserve currency. Why hasn't Japan been a reserve currency? Why not the Brazilian Real?
Trade surplus is not the deciding factor. It has to do with demand for the currency.
Hey moron, trade surplus maintains demand for the currency, as I explained.
and allows you to create a larger money supply- which creates bonds. Without a bond supply, your currency supply is limited and unable to be a reserve currency.
Bullshit. Just plain bullshit.
There's boatloads of other assets out there PBOC can print more Yuan and buy. They don't have to create more freikin DEBT to do it ...like America does.
(Actually America doesn't have to create more debt either. Fed could print dollars and buy anything else out there just like PBOC can. But who else is gonna buy $150 billion of new treasuries issued each month?)
The "more currency = more debt" theme applies only in America ...and EU now I suppose.
So take your "bond supply" argument and shove it. Rest of the world ain't buyin' it anymore.
Like it or not, USD is gonna lose WRC status at some point, likely sooner rather than later.
I'm sure folks like you will shit bricks if the rest of the world picks Yuan as new WRC.
You'll think they're crazy. But they don't fucking care what you think.
hbs - inflation?
By definition...eventually.
With Middle East countries plus Asian countries setting up trade agreements that do not use the USD (gold, barter, other currencies) and the supply of dollars going up, that sets up an interesting dynamic of increasing supply and decreasing demand (for USD).
What could possibly go wrong?
that's all good and all, but Asian countries themselves are printing up like crazy.
US: hey China, buy my dollar while I print more money
China: no way, we do direct trade with Iran without petrodollar now
....10 years later
China: hey US, we have high unemployment and allocation of capital is inefficient because of systematic corruption. community party billionares are handing over state business to their idiot sons instead of the best possible person in a huge population of talents. What do we do?
US: print more.
China: ok....
US: more money, more problems
vive l'B.I.G.
Damn it, we're losing!
Temporary setback, Ben briefly popped out for some more ink ....
Note that our Fed's Total is VERY near to $3 trillion... Watch for fun articles here at ZH once they cross that psychololgical threashold.
I posted my "Review of Barron's, Dated 20 February" there at my blog. Go take a look! Either gmail me at my name (promising you will behave) for the link or track my blog down via a search.
It's worth it just to see what Tatyana has to say about tungsten!
Before long ZeroHedge will be the only finance & geopolitics blog that matters.
I wish you and others would stop promoting your blogs here.
IMO it already is.
DoChen has been here a long time. Stick a bearing in it.
I hate Ben more than the devil
Isn't that BoJ plot vertical about now?
It would have been if Shirakawa hadn't spent all his recently printed Yen on AAPL.
left to right, all good
Yep; just like the stock market, they're all going up. Isn't that a good thing?
Oh look! Dancing with the Stars is on...
[Baa, Baa...]
God damn Chinese. We clearly need more dollar manufacturing at home to compete in this global economy.
No, not god damn the chinese, god damn the US corporations that went to china to exploit cheap labor and the poletitians that allowed it and us that were asleep at the wheel and allowed it.
'poletitians'
Are you typing whilst viewing pornography?
Aren't we all?
Not sure why you're so riled at US corps. Mexico goes to Guatemala, US goes to Japan (only to have it reversed), Germany goes to US - all for cheaper labor. The avalanche of foreign goods is a result of choice: Americans would rather pay $4.95 for a cheap shirt than $15.99 for an American one. Personally, I prefer Italian shoes and suits due to their incredible quality.
No, Americans would rather pay $4.95 for a shirt and work at McDonalds than $15.99 and work somewhere earning a decent wage.
you're an inflationist, a middle-class one, after Unionists the worst kind
As long as the shirt was made in China and the import tarrif was $11.04; and we were on sound money; and import tarrifs were the only way that the govt could raise revenue, then that might work.
can barely see the graph
LOL at the title of the article !
Now now, let's not get all pissy about people eating your lunch. Most round eyes I know at school are lazy, drug users who don't have a clue about what is going on around them. Don't blame the Chinese, blame yourself.
+1 - even without the pudendic avatar.
somehow ZHers think that we don't have enough of 1010001010100111110000
We can produce even more
Well we better! Dollars are our chief export!
You meen 01100100011011110110110001101100011000010111001001110011
right :P
Can someone proficient with graphing and inserting figures please show a graph with the sum of the four central bank reserves and the price of gold?
If only the GDP followed the CB ladder up! Why don't the Cbs make it the law : henceforth GDP growth is pegged to CB balance sheet growth!
Thank God we have 3D printers that we can use to print printing presses.
This is a great chart that visually distinguishes the difference between debasing and inflation. The vertical incline of the FED would have immediately destroyed any third world or developed economy, but it didn't. Why? Because the money may as well have never existed, and technically, it doesn't.
Perhaps this is one reason why gold is not $15,000 an ounce already. However, those "assests" are on a balance sheet. Technically they don't "exist", right, until someone decides to cash them in that is. Unless of course you really think that the families and people on the other side of that trade (or those behind the central bank's balance sheets), you know the folks who collect the interest on all this money creation are going to "allow" that money not to exist.
Gee let's see, when in the history of central banking and fractional reserve banking in particular has that ever happen? Precisely never.
You got it but i'll take it even further. The gold price is purely speculative on emotion and not monetarily. It's a hedge against uncertainty. When people panic i.e. war, defaults, unemployment etc, gold benefits.
The majority of the money pumped into the economy by the FED through the Treasury resides on bank balance sheets to prevent the insolvency thresholds. That money is not intended to be lent (inflation caused by frac. lending) out due to lack of demand and risk, instead it's parked back at the FED earning interest. Of course some has made it onto the street by virtue of the special interests through military funding and GSE's.
I bet most would agree that they have no more money now then they did before the crisis. That's because credit demand proceeds the monitory base. In other words, lending must occur through credit demand before we see real inflation.
Related to M1, M2 and real money flows. has anyone noticed inconsistent in these charts at the Federal reserve bank websites? Are we to really believe these site are reflecting any sort of truth? Being in agriculture I have to maintain a lot of equpment, buildings and the like. The cost for raw materials and machining parts has not gotten cheaper. These cost WILL be passed on to the consumer. The average consumer has not seen a rise in wages since 2008. Any predictions on how that will play out relative to M1, M2, and the general velocity of money?
I'm in an industry that closely tracks economic cycles. The demand I am seeing now is unprecedented and frankly unrealistic. Of course I don't dare bring this up with the customer but instead demand a guaranteed annual volume in writing with premium adjustments in case of short orders. I believe we are filling a supply void from 2008-2010 and costs are reflecting this partly due to excessive capital utilization and lack of supplier base. Once this pipeline is filled (2014), I'm afraid we're back to shutting down factories and laying off staff.
Such is the way in an eCONomic system the relies on infinite (and exponential) growth in a world of finite resources. One more growth cycle for the gipper.
During the Hyperinflation of Weimar Germany, all producers overbought machinery, hell, even farmers bought a tractor more than necessary.
The Austrian School predicts this by the time preference for the far future caused by lowering real lending rates. And the consequent bust.
That's a long lead-time business for today's world. If you are correct, that means shorter-cycle industries that have replenished inventory already will see weakness before 2014.
Hiring expectations data indicate only flat-to-weak hiring between now and then. S&P earnings have topped, so liquidity more than fundamentals will continue to affect markets.
technically non-extistent money used to buy technically existent things like US government bonds.
That's right and don't forget the MBS's. So we have a CB buying real assets in exchange for real money that is trapped within their own vaults. It is never credited into existence as money into the real economy. The real winners are the banks and not the FED since all earned interest is actually paid back to the Treasury.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3ab0f26e-3ba9-11e1-bb39-00144feabdc0.html#axzz...
Now I imply that the FED makes no money buying interest bearing UST's but as we all know, the FED is just a collective front or agent to it's member PRIVATE banks who are the true beneficiaries.
buy crashed and crashing nevada, arizona or florida real estate for cash ?????????
Yes, because everyone will want to live in the suburbs when gas costs $5/gal.
$50K for decent family-sized homes 45 min. from Orlando. They're not your waterfront retirement dream homes, but even for the very pessimistic, they're looking like a pretty good value.
Man...The Fed better step up its game! China about to invoke the mercy rule!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/
Why isn't gold $15,000 an ounce? This makes no sense at all.
Gold will reflect CB debasement when M2 hits the economy. Most of it is still sitting in reserve accounts at the CBs. Money needs velocity before monetization creates inflation. Still, gold is signalling.
Right now my portfolio is positioned for most of that M2 to go straight into the energy sector first, but you are correct sir. This time the market crashes when energy shoots up and PMs dip, just like in 2008, but not nearly as much, especially when it comes to spot prices.
"Gold will reflect CB debasement when M2 hits the economy." But haven't we been hearing this same thing for over a decade now? I'll accept that FED lunacy SHOULD lead to rocket-high gold but for some reason it's just not happening. The power of central banks to control situations is incredible and should not be forgotten.
Because "It only costs $5 bucks to dig an ounce outta the ground (TM Methman)"
Oh yeah, I forgot. I wonder if it will still cost only $5 when energy prices take off again? Winning for sure.
Shit compared to silver, oil's a bargain!
actually, the process is quite toxic. arsenic, cyanide, mercury, lead, cadmium...
but, hey, it's shiny.
That will matter less to the few environmentalists who protest the process now when the shiny stuff is worth even more.
dunno...
the whole thing kinda smells like tulips.
It's a good thing that the alchemists finally discovered a method for bulk conversion of lead into gold and silver last year. Otherwise, the CBs wouldn't be able to debase that currency and a disparity would emerge.
Because very few people have figured it out yet. Look around you, for most people PMs is just something going up, they don't understand their function and purpose. When they realize it, they will vote for those who promise to come after yours. Because their ignorance and stupidity is your fault.
They won't find anything as I lost all PMs and several very nice firearms during a fishing outing in Canada. But you are right. In fact, I actually met a man recently who had several hundred thousand dollars and several million ruples in paper cash hidden in his house. people don't understand that gold is NOT increasing in value per se, it is the monetary paper that is losing purchasing power. The purchasing power of PMs has remained constant throughout history for the most part.
The favoraite line of any professionaly trained eCONomist when it comes to high gold prices is; "If the price of gold gets high enough, someone will figure out how to change lead or some other cheap metal into gold". these idiots typically cite some academic science (which they don't understand) where this has been done (and it has been done) but they ignore the energy component of the equation.
I will often engage in such discussions just to see how many times these people will contradict themselves. I take note and then politely point out their contradictions, this usually ends the conversation.
+ 1 Tragic story about your gold. I am hearing this kind of thing a lot nowadays.
I have a blog reader who told his tale of woe when he went icefishing with his PMs one day. He thought it would be better for him to take along his PMs icefishing as opposed to leaving them hidden at home. While fishing, one thing led to another, one beer to another dozen or more. Then RIGHT as he was fighting a fish, all of his PMs fell right through the hole into the water! He did land a nice walleye though, so the day was not a total bust.
I sent him my sincere condolences. Gotta be careful with PMs and water!
It won't kick in for some people until their 12-pk contains $1.00 worth of scrap aluminum.
$1,700/oz for gold is like FEMA catastrophy swipe card money - difficult to even imagine.
why is gold mined at all?
According to an eCONomist I spoke with recently, when the price gets high enough cheap elements will simply be turned into gold. No kidding, recent Ph.D. from a very good school.
great..
gold pipes, gold cars, gold i-beams...
great.
midas would be proud.
hey, ¡gold mufflers!
When I bring gold up and note how it balances the CB's books, and how given the expansion of liabilities, gold will revalue to $10k, PhDs say, "So?"
Interestingly none of them own any.
Most likely they have already lined up their job working at the CB.