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Random Thoughts From David Rosenberg

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Instead of tackling any specific and highly volatile high frequency macroeconomic data points today (which will most likely be diametrically inverted in the next update iteration), today David Rosenberg focuses on sundry items and flights of fancy that are worth noting, such as that "the S&P 500 has recorded 62 consecutive days in which it has swung by 1% or more in intraday trading. The Dow has also closed 1% higher or lower 38 times since the beginning of August (compared with just 25 in the first seven months of the year)." Additionally, Rosie shares some views on the Paradox of thrift, i.e., that "spending on appliances, jewellery, watches, air travel, recreation vehicles, cameras, gambling is actually lower today than in 2005", on credit unions whose customers don't want to borrow money, " "Too few of its 95,000 members, most of whom live or work in five counties in the San Francisco Bay Area, want to borrow money. And too many are making extra payments on mortgages and car loans — or paying off personal loans ... Provident's loan portfolio has shrunk by 25% since the end of 2008, including a 5% drop in the first nine months of this year" but most notably concludes with the observation that while the 2008 "Great Financial Crisis" was quite memorably, "I wonder whether we'll say 2008 wasn't the real crisis — it was a warm-up, but the real crisis was the sovereign debt crisis in Europe....It is clear that the situation in Greece has deteriorated markedly and that the scope for any further fiscal restraint without triggering some sort of revolution is small. The only way toward fiscal sustainability — to get the sovereign debt/GDP ratio down to 110% by 2020 — is for investors to grant the country a jubilee of sorts and accept a 60% write-down." Naturally, France will throw up over any proposal that sees a 60% haircut Greek haircut, not so much due to Greek losses per se, but due to imminent losses when Portugal, Ireland, Italy and lastly Spain (to which four countries France has exponentially more exposure) decide to do the same as Greece and start underreporting data, striking daily, and overall just shut down their economies.

From Breakfast with Dave, of Gluskin-Sheff

Random Thoughts

Well, the equity market managed to close out last week with a bang, led by some decent earnings announcements, more hope that European leaders will figure out a solution to the credit crisis (after all, we did just endure the 13th crisis summit in the past 21 months) and now some chatter out of the Fed that, in fact, a round of QE3 is probably on its way. Oh yes, option expiration likely played a role as well.

So we have the Dow up now for four weeks in a row (and in positive terrain for the year once again) and the S&P 500 riding a three-week winning streak. For the blue-chips, they have jumped 9.6% in just the past four weeks. The S&P 500 at 1,238.25 is back to the high end of its range, and is looking rather overbought (indeed, the AAII survey now has the bulls at 36% versus the bears at 34.6%). Also, it is now up 9.4% for October, on pace for its best month in more than 11 years. The best-performing sectors within the index this month are Energy, Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials. Yet the overall index is still down 1.5% for the year. What does this tell you? That we are still locked into this meat grinder of a volatile market backdrop.

According to facts and figures cited in Barron's, the S&P 500 has recorded 62 consecutive days in which it has swung by 1% or more in intraday trading. The Dow has also closed 1% higher or lower 38 times since the beginning of August (compared with just 25 in the first seven months of the year).

To be sure, earnings have been coming in fairly decently overall. So far, 67% have beaten EPS expectations, 10% have met expectations and 23% have missed. These are more or less in line with historical norms. But what is interesting is that the extent of the "beats" is far lower than it has been compared to other quarters during the recovery that began two years ago, and much of the "beats" have come from financials and one-time "accounting" factors to boot.

The YoY trend in S&P 500 operating EPS rose in the past week to 13.8% from 11.5%, with nearly 90% of that improvement coming from the banks. Analysts have also taken their Q3 numbers back up to +14.6% from 12.4% last week (though still below the 16.9% consensus view when the quarter began).

As we said above, two Fed officials came right out and threw their verbal support behind another round of QE support, which likely helped underpin the risk-on trade to close out last week. First it was Governor Daniel Tarullo stating that the central bank could resume outright purchases of mortgage back securities in a bid to stimulate housing activity; and then Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen cited "significant downside risk" to the economic outlook in a Denver speech she delivered on Friday, and tacked on her solution for good measure: "Securities purchases across a wide spectrum of maturities might become appropriate if evolving economic conditions called for significantly greater monetary accommodation".

While there are dissenters, they are not growing in number, and the likes of Charles Evans and Eric Rosengren, respectively heads of the Chicago and Boston Fed banks, have spoken out in favour of more policy accommodation in recent weeks.

Perhaps Yellen is suggesting that the Fed could also purchase corporate securities. All the talk of late has been about only providing support for the mortgage market. Recall that QE1 involved the Fed purchasing $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds, which definitely exerted a substantial positive impact in the months that followed. But let's face it, mortgage rates were near 6.5% back then and trading at nearly a 300 spread over Treasuries. Today the yield is closer to 4%, so at the margin, it is tough to believe that the Fed can incrementally move the needle with more intervention this time around.

What really caught our eye, being bond bulls and all, was Yellen's comment on deflation risks. To wit:

In fact, there is a risk that disinflationaty pressures could intensify if the recovery faltered ... indeed, based on imputations from [inflation-linked Treasury bond] prices, market participants' assessments of the odds of outright deflation have risen significantly in recent months.

And we share her concerns. All the more so after reading some fascinating articles on the frugality theme in the weekend WSJ. These are worth cutting out and keeping:

  • Spenders Become Savers, Hurting Recovery — this was the front page story of the weekend WSJ.

First sentence tells all: "American consumers' long-running love affair with debt is on the rocks". There has been more than $1 trillion of household deleveraging in the past three years. We're only past the third inning. Paradox of thrift — spending on appliances, jewellery, watches, air travel, recreation vehicles, cameras, gambling is actually lower today than in 2005. Americans, as the article concludes, are "embracing a frugal life". Buddha would be proud.

  • What Does a Credit Union Do When Its Customers Won't Borrow Money— on page A14.

Did you ever think during the height of the parabolic credit surge in the last cycle that we would be talking about households too scared to take on more debt? This article is about California-based Provident Credit Union — "Too few of its 95,000 members, most of whom live or work in five counties in the San Francisco Bay Area, want to borrow money. And too many are making extra payments on mortgages and car loans — or paying off personal loans ... Provident's loan portfolio has shrunk by 25% since the end of 2008, including a 5% drop in the first nine months of this year. The credit union has just 85 cents in loans for every $1 in deposits. Provident typically seeks to have from the low- to mid-90 cents in loans for every $1 in deposits".

  • Overseas Allies Reluctant to Try U.S. Debt Diet — page A14 as well. The article kicks off with this:

"Americans are slimming down their debt, but few overseas have gone on a similar diet. The result: Debt will slow the pace of global growth, like extra weight on a racehorse.

 

The U.S. and South Korea are among the few major economies to have cut their total public and private debt as a share of gross domestic product since the end of 2008, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, the economic research arm of the consulting firm.

 

South Korea has made the biggest strides largely because its economy has grown. In the U.S., household debt has fallen through payments and defaults.

 

Japan, Spain, France, Italy, Germany and other countries have boosted debt levels, largely through increased government borrowing, since the 2008 financial crisis, according to figures tallied by McKinsey.

The most startling revelation was made by MIT economist Simon Johnson (and former chief economist for the IMF) — and this is a doozy:

I wonder whether we'll say 2008 wasn't the real crisis — it was a warm-up, but the real crisis was the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

We share his concern.

We also highly recommend a read of the op-ed piece by Holman W. Jenkins Jr. in the weekend WSJ titled: Why Europe Dithers: German voters don't want to bail out French banks and the French government can't afford to.

In this current backdrop, income is king —just make sure that you are getting paid to take on the risk as opposed to paying to take on the risk. Investors are starting to see the value of being in credit at current pricing and are even dipping their toes back into the high-yield market, which saw net inflows of $4.27 billion last week (the second most on record). And why not — the group has generated a not bad positive return of 3% so far this month. The spreads off Treasuries have come down from the stratospheric levels of 910bps earlier in the month but at 769bps still remain very juicy even in this uncertain macro background.

As for Europe, it is clear that the situation in Greece has deteriorated markedly and that the scope for any further fiscal restraint without triggering some sort of revolution is small. The only way toward fiscal sustainability — to get the sovereign debt/GDP ratio down to 110% by 2020 — is for investors to grant the country a jubilee of sorts and accept a 60% write-down. Without this haircut, the Sunday NYT reports that the country would face a 450 billion euro refinancing wave over the next eight years. New studies suggest that the European banks will now have to raise around 100 billion euros ($138 billion) to meeting their tier 1 capital ratios. The next critical issue is how the banks are going to be able to raise the capital, and if it is with the help of the government sector, how this can be achieved without a destabilizing round of credit downgrades (especially France).

 

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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:03 | 1805689 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Deep thoughts by Jack Handey.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:13 | 1805763 eureka
eureka's picture

Ahmeexnal - you're a smart guy - if Europe is fucked up how come US bank stocks go up when EU says it'll give EUR to EU banks?

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:36 | 1805868 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

They need more suckers. Another bailout is being priced in. Many are moving their money from eurobanks to US banks. And the algos help too.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 01:02 | 1807161 eureka
eureka's picture

Thanks. Good points.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:56 | 1805932 mr_sandman
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Because they're all interlinked through counterparty trades.  They're also massively leveraged, so providing capital for EU banks means they don't have a deleveraging spiral where they sell equities.  This makes the markets drop... which makes the US banks undergo leveraged sales, which makes the markets drop... which makes the EU banks...

You get the picture.

When you're leveraged to 35-to-1 and a great deal of your capital base is in risky bonds and equities, propping up that capital has large effects on the market.  We saw this same spiral in 2008 when the investment banks were doing fire sales of their equity positions to maintain capital ratios and meet margin calls.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 01:04 | 1807163 eureka
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Thanks, sandman.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:24 | 1805799 common_sense
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SP Goal for 2011:  1250

Well, 1247 right now, really closed. BUT, 1 more point in october, 1 more in november and 1 more in december and.... we got it: 1250 at the end of the year. NICE ! with all european and american banks bailout-ed together, in a GREAT APOTHEOSIC SYMPHONY . So the next point... at Halloween...hummm the scariest chart ever....sounds great !

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:00 | 1805947 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

people.....................you  compromise the measuring rod,  as we are demonstrably doing   youu have a paradoxical  shot  at  a  20000   Dow,  this mantratic bearishness  on   ZH   may  have  validity in  tangible   terms, but Dow 20000   makes   mincemeat of this board   IN NOMINAL TERMS. I would be  assiduously careful.

 

    But what does it buy,  probably fucking nothing, dont short a hyper, profoundly unwise.   Big numbers,  worthless or otherwise, lie dead ahead, dont confuse hopeless fundamentals with a collapsed measuring rod.   Kindly carry on  :)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:00 | 1806137 Socratic Dog
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Ehh???

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:02 | 1806651 Carlyle Groupie
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NICE! Confucius of the hedge!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:31 | 1805849 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Pope and New Rome will throw out the moneychangers and bring the world-wide Jubilee...announcement for Wednesday or the next G20.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:35 | 1805863 Uncle Sam
Uncle Sam's picture

Rome is compromised - go along with the NWO, or face the World Court for centuries of pedophilia.

There might have been a time when the NWO might have been worth discussing, but almost everything evil happening in the world today points right back at them. Terrible PR.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:46 | 1805895 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Papal Rule or Muslim Caliphate or China...pick one.

What is the best of the choices ?  (new game)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:51 | 1805915 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

I'll take Anarchy for $100, Alex.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:58 | 1805940 HardlyZero
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I'm hip.  Its gonna be one hell of a ride.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 01:14 | 1807174 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
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We might get some of that.  But it will be transitory.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:06 | 1806664 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

"I wonder whether we'll say 2008 wasn't the real crisis — it was a warm-up, but the real crisis was the sovereign debt crisis in Europe"

Huh????

Geez, like it ain't rocket science, dood!

I mean, the real crises is the ultra-leveraged run in its entirety, just as in the 1920s, when they did an ultra-levaged run, ending after 7 years with the Great Crash of 1929, so too this ultra-leveraged run, beginning around 2000, culminated in mid-2007 with the meltdown, this is simply Phase II, when they move to attack the debt in the south of Europe, most probably breaking up the EU, then we will witness CDS attacks on state and local municipal debt in the USA, probably culminating with the Balkanization of America by 2017 or thereabouts?

[Ultra-leveraged run: for every $1 of debt on hand, they begin at $60 to $100 and continue to $1,000, which goes for a period and then the predictable collapse.  Ignore all that obfuscation about monetary policy, etc., ad nauseum, that's for confusing the masses, and why grad students who have figured it out over the ages have their enlightened doctoral theses marked down and never receive any faculty position offers.]

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:03 | 1805690 redpill
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Sounds like Peter Schiff from 2 years ago.  Oh well, better late than never Rosie.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:06 | 1805709 Ahmeexnal
Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:09 | 1805726 redpill
redpill's picture

Clearly he was attempting to undermine US currency and should be thrown in jail next to Bernard Von NotHaus.  We have to keep our country safe afterall.

 

If you see something, say something.

 

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:11 | 1805744 Clint Liquor
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He should have been carrying these:

"This new Canadian silver commemorative coin is legal tender with a value of $20. It is available for the official price of only $20. You simply exchange $20 from your wallet for a $20 coin of pure 99.99% silver."

http://www.mint.ca/store/product/product_exchange.jsp?itemId=prod1040001&rcmeid=EMSx310x3391&EMS_MID=EMSx310x3391

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:13 | 1805760 redpill
redpill's picture

 

 

Due to high demand, this product is SOLD OUT!

Shocking. 

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:32 | 1805774 Clint Liquor
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This was a test run by the RCM. The People want real money and you haven't seen the last of it. The 1 oz Silver coin is the new $100 bill.

They made 'Commemorative' legal tender? Sure they did. This was a test and they sold out in an eye blink.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 22:38 | 1806901 Cast Iron Skillet
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Here in Germany they go for 20€ per coin

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:04 | 1805692 LongSoupLine
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All that matters is Bob "Perma-bull in my pants" Pisani is "suggesting" the US can "decouple" due to great earnings.

Total fucktard!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:59 | 1805944 Waterfallsparkles
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What I hate about Bob Pisani is that he continues to walk the Floor of the Exchange and constantly repeat why the Market is Trading against you.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:05 | 1805701 SheepDog-One
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'QE3' has been used to jack up markets for almost a year now, simply hillarious!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:10 | 1805733 Archimedes
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Yup! and it keeps working! Any Fed asshole speaking "We may buy more toxic junk with make believe money even though our balance sheet is roughly the same as the GDP of Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world".

And the market flies.

There will be no more balance sheet expansion by the Fed anytime soon.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:05 | 1805704 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Yellin: "Corporate Securities", like stocks? Like Russell 2000 that was +3.25% today? BRILLIANT!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:07 | 1805707 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Off topic: i just love the fact that the EUR/USD gave up over half it's rise today yet the market came damn close to ending at it's highs on the days. 

I've said it a million times: The machines ARE allowed becaause and if and ONLY they are hell-bent at supporting asset prices higher. Everything is working against the human species in this market. Only JPM and Goldman know which way this market is fucking headed.

I am mostly in cash and PM's so this isn't rotten eggs, this is just a simple fact.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:08 | 1805716 LawsofPhysics
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He mentions record investment in risk assets but neglects that lack of volume.  Something fishy here.  Deflation in things you don't need for survival, major inflation in everything you do.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:09 | 1805724 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

dithering while muddling?

oh!  the humanity!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:21 | 1805734 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Didn't we use to tell the communists that de-centralized control works better than centralized control?? Isn't that why the PCs beat the mainframe?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:28 | 1805825 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"grant the country a jubilee of sorts"

This does call for a Jubilee.. a depowerd teenage mutant whose plasma bazooka powers were restored through technology.

Sounds eerily familiar.

You just can't make this up.. or can you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(comics)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:56 | 1805934 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Every 80 years....this time the Pope will throw out the moneychangers and do the Worldwide Jubilee...New Rome.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:29 | 1805835 Island_Dweller
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The article "Why Europe Dithers" by Holman W. Jenkins Jr. referenced by Rosenberg in the article:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/business_world.html

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:31 | 1805843 CvlDobd
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The next critical issue is how the banks are going to be able to raise the capital, and if it is with the help of the government sector, how this can be achieved without a destabilizing round of credit downgrades (especially France).

It's like that commerical, for which product I forget, but the character says.

"It makes sense if you don't think about it."

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:37 | 1805870 common_sense
common_sense's picture

NEXT FOR SURE RUMORMILL :  SOMALIA IS GOINT TO BAILOUT ITALY !  yES!

How?  not with money, but with people, they are going to change all the italian staff and machinery by somalian people... Berlusconi agree to do it ASAP. Expenses will be reduced drastically because somalian people can easily survive by less than 50 cents per day...  BRAVISSIMO ITALIA, PLENTY OF GOOD IDEAS, OHHHH REALLY SMART PRESIDENT. OR MAY BE IT'S A RUBY'S IDEA??  WHO KNOWS...

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:39 | 1805883 redpill
redpill's picture

On the brightside, public debt tends to stay under control when you don't hava a functional government to speak of.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:35 | 1806394 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
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Stop it, you sound like those Libertarians  ;>

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:43 | 1805892 Waterfallsparkles
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Looks like a lot of People are doing what I am doing is using any free cash flow to pay off Debt.  Cannot get any kind of return on your Money accept to pay of Debt.  At least that way you earn the interest you are or were paying on any loan.

I also have stopped buying anything that I do not really, really need.  I also have stopped going to the Grocery store as frequently and started to use my stock pile.  That saves Money that can be put toward paying even more Debt off.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 19:40 | 1806407 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Correct. Plus, I think Rosenberg missed a couple of points-- at least Provident credit union was getting paid back (probably a lot more than B of A could ever hope for). Also, if prices are going up on other necessities (gas, food, etc) you're not going to go buy a new car or borrow more. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 16:55 | 1805931 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

The Stock Market and the Corporations cannot survive with People like myself going into Depression mode.  Where you do not spend any Money and continue to pay down Debt.

Wall Street seems to think they are insulated from all of "Consumers" not spending.  But, I think that with everyone becoming more frugal and getting into a pattern of not spending Money they will be surprised when the Corporations cannot continue to make Money without Us.

I was watching some Youtube videos this weekend where Freegans are Dumpster Diving to get their Food and other items.  Many People are using Thrift Stores or yard sales to get their Clothes and other items they need.  Many People are finding alternative ways to feed and clothe themselves.  Many People in California are living in Cars, in Trailers, garages to save on housing.

Wall Street may want to ignore us but it will end up being a trickle up downfall.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:24 | 1806039 common_sense
common_sense's picture

Wall Street is living in a bubble... and they believe they are magical and they don't need nobody, but bubbles always explose...for sure this financial very large s h i t ....

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:51 | 1806301 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Thought about this as well. Now that the majority has left the stockmarket, and it's only megabank bots and a minority of suckers in - sure, they can move the market however they want..... but without money/ETF printing, how are they going to make any money out of it, except of by ripping each other off?

It's lonely at the top.

As i see it, if this continues, the only think left they live off, is depositor accounts and QE.... and people are beginning to pull their money out of accounts. So, after that.... what is left of them, besides of a "business" which's only significant revenue, is free money printing. Sure, from an devilish POV sounds efficient.... but when you're at that point, it doesn't take long anymore for the lynchmob to arrive.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 07:28 | 1807462 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I agree.   What I and many are doing is a passive way to Protest against Wall Street and the Banks.

Plus, it makes me feel good paying off Debt.  It makes me feel more secure and able to ride out any real downturn.  I am more in control with less debt and more spendable income.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:10 | 1805987 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Fed policies have failed in moving the more important needles and their destructive tendencies towards the middle class and working poor will only incite more resentment and then no matter what kind of sophisticated debate we can have about solving the problems can be thrown out the window.

End the fed.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:35 | 1806071 common_sense
common_sense's picture

End the fed.

End financial engineering.

So, End Wall Street.

Occuppy Wall Street now !

 

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:23 | 1806035 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

GIDEON    GONO,  this is the finance minister of   the   redoubtable  and beautiful   country of  ZIMBABWE. This genius put 16   zeroes on  his currency. Thats   no  mean  feat. The french  printing   company'  the  inkster   made the large.   respectfully,  i  call him   Gideon  Gonzo.

    My juvenile point is     WATCH  THE  NUMERATOR>.   One would assume that dear Gideon  ended up  as  a tender   dinner in  a pot  of   very hot water  in  the town   square.  A  leg?  a shoulder?    a wing?  .   perhaps   something adventurous.   perhaps  not that   rather odd thing.

    One would assume  utterly  incorrectly.

    As  we speak, Gideon  Gonzo,  in  recognition  of  his  ever  so   skillful  management of his countrys  finances, is in  fact the  present day  finance minister of   ZIM.

    my point, the Dow  or   s   and p,  could very well go  wildly   strange,   mind  that  numerator   you  geniuses.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 17:52 | 1806115 s2man
s2man's picture

I call BS, or at least misuse of a term; We've already had a Paradox of Thrift article today.  Thift is saving.  Paying off debt is not saving, its just fiscally prudent.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 21:04 | 1806657 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

China loves Rosenberg! Come join forces with us, Canada is nothing compared to China.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 07:07 | 1807422 Ted K
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