Random Thoughts From David Rosenberg

Tyler Durden's picture

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Ahmeexnal's picture

Deep thoughts by Jack Handey.

eureka's picture

Ahmeexnal - you're a smart guy - if Europe is fucked up how come US bank stocks go up when EU says it'll give EUR to EU banks?

 

Ahmeexnal's picture

They need more suckers. Another bailout is being priced in. Many are moving their money from eurobanks to US banks. And the algos help too.

mr_sandman's picture

Because they're all interlinked through counterparty trades.  They're also massively leveraged, so providing capital for EU banks means they don't have a deleveraging spiral where they sell equities.  This makes the markets drop... which makes the US banks undergo leveraged sales, which makes the markets drop... which makes the EU banks...

You get the picture.

When you're leveraged to 35-to-1 and a great deal of your capital base is in risky bonds and equities, propping up that capital has large effects on the market.  We saw this same spiral in 2008 when the investment banks were doing fire sales of their equity positions to maintain capital ratios and meet margin calls.

common_sense's picture

SP Goal for 2011:  1250

Well, 1247 right now, really closed. BUT, 1 more point in october, 1 more in november and 1 more in december and.... we got it: 1250 at the end of the year. NICE ! with all european and american banks bailout-ed together, in a GREAT APOTHEOSIC SYMPHONY . So the next point... at Halloween...hummm the scariest chart ever....sounds great !

vamoose1's picture

people.....................you  compromise the measuring rod,  as we are demonstrably doing   youu have a paradoxical  shot  at  a  20000   Dow,  this mantratic bearishness  on   ZH   may  have  validity in  tangible   terms, but Dow 20000   makes   mincemeat of this board   IN NOMINAL TERMS. I would be  assiduously careful.

 

    But what does it buy,  probably fucking nothing, dont short a hyper, profoundly unwise.   Big numbers,  worthless or otherwise, lie dead ahead, dont confuse hopeless fundamentals with a collapsed measuring rod.   Kindly carry on  :)

HardlyZero's picture

Pope and New Rome will throw out the moneychangers and bring the world-wide Jubilee...announcement for Wednesday or the next G20.

Uncle Sam's picture

Rome is compromised - go along with the NWO, or face the World Court for centuries of pedophilia.

There might have been a time when the NWO might have been worth discussing, but almost everything evil happening in the world today points right back at them. Terrible PR.

HardlyZero's picture

Papal Rule or Muslim Caliphate or China...pick one.

What is the best of the choices ?  (new game)

Ahmeexnal's picture

I'll take Anarchy for $100, Alex.

HardlyZero's picture

I'm hip.  Its gonna be one hell of a ride.

Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

We might get some of that.  But it will be transitory.

sgt_doom's picture

"I wonder whether we'll say 2008 wasn't the real crisis — it was a warm-up, but the real crisis was the sovereign debt crisis in Europe"

Huh????

Geez, like it ain't rocket science, dood!

I mean, the real crises is the ultra-leveraged run in its entirety, just as in the 1920s, when they did an ultra-levaged run, ending after 7 years with the Great Crash of 1929, so too this ultra-leveraged run, beginning around 2000, culminated in mid-2007 with the meltdown, this is simply Phase II, when they move to attack the debt in the south of Europe, most probably breaking up the EU, then we will witness CDS attacks on state and local municipal debt in the USA, probably culminating with the Balkanization of America by 2017 or thereabouts?

[Ultra-leveraged run: for every $1 of debt on hand, they begin at $60 to $100 and continue to $1,000, which goes for a period and then the predictable collapse.  Ignore all that obfuscation about monetary policy, etc., ad nauseum, that's for confusing the masses, and why grad students who have figured it out over the ages have their enlightened doctoral theses marked down and never receive any faculty position offers.]

redpill's picture

Sounds like Peter Schiff from 2 years ago.  Oh well, better late than never Rosie.

redpill's picture

Clearly he was attempting to undermine US currency and should be thrown in jail next to Bernard Von NotHaus.  We have to keep our country safe afterall.

 

If you see something, say something.

 

 

Clint Liquor's picture

He should have been carrying these:

"This new Canadian silver commemorative coin is legal tender with a value of $20. It is available for the official price of only $20. You simply exchange $20 from your wallet for a $20 coin of pure 99.99% silver."

http://www.mint.ca/store/product/product_exchange.jsp?itemId=prod1040001&rcmeid=EMSx310x3391&EMS_MID=EMSx310x3391

redpill's picture

 

 

Due to high demand, this product is SOLD OUT!

Shocking. 

 

Clint Liquor's picture

This was a test run by the RCM. The People want real money and you haven't seen the last of it. The 1 oz Silver coin is the new $100 bill.

They made 'Commemorative' legal tender? Sure they did. This was a test and they sold out in an eye blink.

Cast Iron Skillet's picture

Here in Germany they go for 20€ per coin

LongSoupLine's picture

All that matters is Bob "Perma-bull in my pants" Pisani is "suggesting" the US can "decouple" due to great earnings.

Total fucktard!

Waterfallsparkles's picture

What I hate about Bob Pisani is that he continues to walk the Floor of the Exchange and constantly repeat why the Market is Trading against you.

SheepDog-One's picture

'QE3' has been used to jack up markets for almost a year now, simply hillarious!

Archimedes's picture

Yup! and it keeps working! Any Fed asshole speaking "We may buy more toxic junk with make believe money even though our balance sheet is roughly the same as the GDP of Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world".

And the market flies.

There will be no more balance sheet expansion by the Fed anytime soon.

SwingForce's picture

Yellin: "Corporate Securities", like stocks? Like Russell 2000 that was +3.25% today? BRILLIANT!

Belarus's picture

Off topic: i just love the fact that the EUR/USD gave up over half it's rise today yet the market came damn close to ending at it's highs on the days. 

I've said it a million times: The machines ARE allowed becaause and if and ONLY they are hell-bent at supporting asset prices higher. Everything is working against the human species in this market. Only JPM and Goldman know which way this market is fucking headed.

I am mostly in cash and PM's so this isn't rotten eggs, this is just a simple fact.

LawsofPhysics's picture

He mentions record investment in risk assets but neglects that lack of volume.  Something fishy here.  Deflation in things you don't need for survival, major inflation in everything you do.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

dithering while muddling?

oh!  the humanity!

El Viejo's picture

Didn't we use to tell the communists that de-centralized control works better than centralized control?? Isn't that why the PCs beat the mainframe?

Manthong's picture

"grant the country a jubilee of sorts"

This does call for a Jubilee.. a depowerd teenage mutant whose plasma bazooka powers were restored through technology.

Sounds eerily familiar.

You just can't make this up.. or can you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(comics)

HardlyZero's picture

Every 80 years....this time the Pope will throw out the moneychangers and do the Worldwide Jubilee...New Rome.

Island_Dweller's picture

The article "Why Europe Dithers" by Holman W. Jenkins Jr. referenced by Rosenberg in the article:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/business_world.html

CvlDobd's picture

The next critical issue is how the banks are going to be able to raise the capital, and if it is with the help of the government sector, how this can be achieved without a destabilizing round of credit downgrades (especially France).

It's like that commerical, for which product I forget, but the character says.

"It makes sense if you don't think about it."

common_sense's picture

NEXT FOR SURE RUMORMILL :  SOMALIA IS GOINT TO BAILOUT ITALY !  yES!

How?  not with money, but with people, they are going to change all the italian staff and machinery by somalian people... Berlusconi agree to do it ASAP. Expenses will be reduced drastically because somalian people can easily survive by less than 50 cents per day...  BRAVISSIMO ITALIA, PLENTY OF GOOD IDEAS, OHHHH REALLY SMART PRESIDENT. OR MAY BE IT'S A RUBY'S IDEA??  WHO KNOWS...

 

redpill's picture

On the brightside, public debt tends to stay under control when you don't hava a functional government to speak of.

Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Stop it, you sound like those Libertarians  ;>

Waterfallsparkles's picture

Looks like a lot of People are doing what I am doing is using any free cash flow to pay off Debt.  Cannot get any kind of return on your Money accept to pay of Debt.  At least that way you earn the interest you are or were paying on any loan.

I also have stopped buying anything that I do not really, really need.  I also have stopped going to the Grocery store as frequently and started to use my stock pile.  That saves Money that can be put toward paying even more Debt off.

Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Correct. Plus, I think Rosenberg missed a couple of points-- at least Provident credit union was getting paid back (probably a lot more than B of A could ever hope for). Also, if prices are going up on other necessities (gas, food, etc) you're not going to go buy a new car or borrow more. 

Waterfallsparkles's picture

The Stock Market and the Corporations cannot survive with People like myself going into Depression mode.  Where you do not spend any Money and continue to pay down Debt.

Wall Street seems to think they are insulated from all of "Consumers" not spending.  But, I think that with everyone becoming more frugal and getting into a pattern of not spending Money they will be surprised when the Corporations cannot continue to make Money without Us.

I was watching some Youtube videos this weekend where Freegans are Dumpster Diving to get their Food and other items.  Many People are using Thrift Stores or yard sales to get their Clothes and other items they need.  Many People are finding alternative ways to feed and clothe themselves.  Many People in California are living in Cars, in Trailers, garages to save on housing.

Wall Street may want to ignore us but it will end up being a trickle up downfall.

common_sense's picture

Wall Street is living in a bubble... and they believe they are magical and they don't need nobody, but bubbles always explose...for sure this financial very large s h i t ....

Rynak's picture

Thought about this as well. Now that the majority has left the stockmarket, and it's only megabank bots and a minority of suckers in - sure, they can move the market however they want..... but without money/ETF printing, how are they going to make any money out of it, except of by ripping each other off?

It's lonely at the top.

As i see it, if this continues, the only think left they live off, is depositor accounts and QE.... and people are beginning to pull their money out of accounts. So, after that.... what is left of them, besides of a "business" which's only significant revenue, is free money printing. Sure, from an devilish POV sounds efficient.... but when you're at that point, it doesn't take long anymore for the lynchmob to arrive.

Waterfallsparkles's picture

I agree.   What I and many are doing is a passive way to Protest against Wall Street and the Banks.

Plus, it makes me feel good paying off Debt.  It makes me feel more secure and able to ride out any real downturn.  I am more in control with less debt and more spendable income.

AldoHux_IV's picture

Fed policies have failed in moving the more important needles and their destructive tendencies towards the middle class and working poor will only incite more resentment and then no matter what kind of sophisticated debate we can have about solving the problems can be thrown out the window.

End the fed.

common_sense's picture

End the fed.

End financial engineering.

So, End Wall Street.

Occuppy Wall Street now !

 

 

vamoose1's picture

GIDEON    GONO,  this is the finance minister of   the   redoubtable  and beautiful   country of  ZIMBABWE. This genius put 16   zeroes on  his currency. Thats   no  mean  feat. The french  printing   company'  the  inkster   made the large.   respectfully,  i  call him   Gideon  Gonzo.

    My juvenile point is     WATCH  THE  NUMERATOR>.   One would assume that dear Gideon  ended up  as  a tender   dinner in  a pot  of   very hot water  in  the town   square.  A  leg?  a shoulder?    a wing?  .   perhaps   something adventurous.   perhaps  not that   rather odd thing.

    One would assume  utterly  incorrectly.

    As  we speak, Gideon  Gonzo,  in  recognition  of  his  ever  so   skillful  management of his countrys  finances, is in  fact the  present day  finance minister of   ZIM.

    my point, the Dow  or   s   and p,  could very well go  wildly   strange,   mind  that  numerator   you  geniuses.

s2man's picture

I call BS, or at least misuse of a term; We've already had a Paradox of Thrift article today.  Thift is saving.  Paying off debt is not saving, its just fiscally prudent.