RANsquawk EU Morning Briefing - What's Happened So Far - 26/04/12

Comments

[Josephine29]

Yes the outlook is grim with even a core Euro nation like the Netherlands suffering the pain. Take a look at this report on the subject.

Will consumers come to the rescue?

With the falling real income levels described above this does not seem likely. The Dutch consumer sentiment balance is not surprisingly at -32 in April. Whilst this is an improvement on the -36 of March it is a considerable deterioration on the -10 of a year ago (April 2011). If we look at their view on the economic climate we see that a year ago it was a balance of -7 and it is now -52. The only solace to be gained is that it is at least better than the -65 of the 4th quarter of 2011.

The actual consumption figures do back up these sentiment indicators although we can only view up to February via this route. The emphasis is mine.

Household spending on goods and services was 1.3 percent down in February 2012 on twelve months previously. The decline was about the same as in the preceding months. Consumption figures are adjusted for price changes and differences in the shopping-day pattern.If the consumption of natural gas had been the same as in 2011, total household consumption would have slumped nearly 3 percent.

http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/wp/shaun-richards/will-the-netherlands-grow-fast-enough-to-offset-the-rising-costs-of-euro-membership/

[Weisbrot]

at least RANsquawk is 1 source that is accurate and not skewed

thank you for the straight scoop

(dare I suggest others are fear mongereres and only here to "sell their wares")

[Change-In-Trend]

GLD Update

• I continue to work on the model to improve its efficacy as a market directional model. Admittedly, I am a self confessed workaholic and perfectionist. So any psychologist would likely have a field day with me lol.
• The previous comment regarding Gold having formed a low has a high probability of being INCORRECT. 
• I have attached a cycle progression chart of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD). 
• This cycle is currently on day 33 of its current cycle and is therefore currently in a strong cycle.
• I have included an additional statistical measure named "Probability of 10d Cor ". This is a measure of the percentage of all data points where the 10 day correlation score was positive. The higher this statistical measure the more likely price will follow the cycle progression forecast.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/61944563/GLD.png

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