RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 21/10/11

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paarsons's picture

My market predictions!!!!!!!

Up and down for the next ten years.

High unemployment....followed by war.

But what do I know?


pendragon's picture

bund/france spreads bleeding wider today

Aductor's picture

Rally on folks, the clueless bulls in the US are awake now.

Davalicious's picture

I had a message from a friend in the IMF. I paraphrase it here for comments. He said that the Euro is here to stay, but that it was no longer certain that all members would stay in the Euro, and that the crisis would be far worse without the Euro.

Replying to my surprise that the Euro/USD had held up he said that the data for the US economy was much worse than the Euro average, and that this accounted for the constant criticism of European economic management from the US (i.e. distraction).  

There was also something about American economic incompetence passing the divide of politics, and fingers crossed that we don't end up with a Chinese world dictatorship.


I would say that the Euro is the direct cause for most problems in Greece as it killed a natural mechanism to curb their excessive consumption. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland had problems of their own, but the Euro sent them up a cul-du-sac.

Have to agree with him that the US economy is worse. But the immidate meltdown threat is from a European bank collapse, just because CDS failures nuke the works, from whatever direction they come.

I don't see US economic strategy as stupid. I think it is a criminal conspiracy.

machineh's picture

'the data for the US economy was much worse than the Euro average'

In other words, he probably suspects the US economy is in recession, yes?