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Ray Dalio: Don't Assume That Germany Will Bail Europe Out; Consider The "Fat Tail" A Significant Possibility

Tyler Durden's picture


Lately, more and more professional investment "advisors" and newsletter recommendations boil down to just one catalyst: wait for either Germany, the ECB or the Fed to step in, as usual, and bail the world out, because, well, they have to, and any additional thought is rendered moot as fundamental analysis is meaningless under central planning (plus it is actually more work than just repeating the same stuff over and over while charging $29.95/month for it). Of course, when these same snakeoil salesmen are asked the simple question: what if said bailout does not happen, or if it happens late (for the purposes of this exercise let's assume one is not a central bank that can print its own money, have an infinite balance sheet, and can afford to be wrong almost into perpetuity), they give a blank stare, start mumbling something and walk away, especially if one mentions Lehman brothers and the simple detail that, oh, it failed. Which is why if Ray Dalio, head of the world's largest hedge fund, is correct, it may time to summarily fire and stop subscribing to each and every broken record Oracle whose template is "X will bailout Y" for the simple reason that it is wrong.

From Bridgewater's Daily Observations:

Be Careful When Betting Against Human Nature


Alliances are shifting in a logical manner. The German-French alliance is breaking down in favor of contributor (higher rated credit) countries aligning against recipient (lower rated credit) countries. Similarly, the terminology to describe who is reasonable and who is unreasonable reflects these parties' respective interests. Those who don't have to contribute use terms like "inflexible" and "irresponsible" to describe the contributors' reluctance to "do enough" to prevent collapse by lending more to recipients who can't service their existing debts, while those who have to contribute use terms like "inflexible" and "irresponsible" to describe the recipients' reluctance to "do enough" cutting of their spending and borrowing to service their debts. Students of human nature and deleveragings know that this is to be expected.


Similarly, talk of a fiscal union to resolve these problems has to be looked at in light of the question of whether it is in the interest of fiscally strong contributors to have a fiscal union with fiscally weak recipients in which the majority rules how the money is divided.


For this reason, we think the popular assumption that the Germans and the ECB (which requires agreement of the key factions within it) will come through with the money to make all these debts good should not be taken for granted. Said differently, we think there are good reasons to doubt that European bank and sovereign deleveragings will be prevented from progressing to the next stage in a disorderly way, without a Plan B in place. This "fat tail" event must be considered a significant possibility.


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Tue, 06/26/2012 - 19:55 | 2563310 RobertMugabe
RobertMugabe's picture

Ray Dalio speaketh truth! Time for the MSM to begin attacking him again, calling him a "cult" leader and wut not.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:08 | 2563337 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Germany will cave in by the end of July. The alternative for them is even worse.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:09 | 2563342 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Never under estimate what total losers the Germans are. They have lost every war for the last 100 years. They are still occupied by the USA. Hell, even Iraq caused enough chaos to make us leave. Germany is the world's bitch. They will pay what ever it takes and will remain the shittiest losers in the world.

Bend over German losers!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:39 | 2563433 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

ooh, you Stinky Monkey!  Drop in .... deposit a nasty turd ... leave without flushing.  

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:33 | 2563581 Western
Western's picture

"they give a blank stare, start mumbling something and walk away"


mumbling? oh that must be alan greenspan.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:55 | 2563645 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah ~ Now try to imagine WHIRRLED PEAS while you're fucking at it... ENOUGH with this horseshit!...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:35 | 2563757 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

The Missus got a fat tail.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:26 | 2564114 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Excellent read by Ray Dalio. Updated March 2012.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:37 | 2564192 Michael
Michael's picture

Is today the lul before the shit storm?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:34 | 2564364 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Mario Monti is essentially pitching the shit-storm theory. Of course, he'd be a recipient of bailout funds. But for the 3rd largest EU economy to have such dire predictions tells me this will not end well.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:45 | 2564203 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Someone might want to cut this out, blow it up, and frame it.  I have said this before and I will repeat myself.  This will be the first market crash/collapse everyone saw coming, yet did little to get out of its way. 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:51 | 2564210 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Wow. Long time since I've seen you around. Peace bro...

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 21:23 | 2567069 mkucstars
mkucstars's picture

I don't think it's quite the same thing, but I do understand your perspective!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:38 | 2563434 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

...and while the Germans are bending over you'll be breathing their gas? Do you remember what happened last time the Germans gassed you?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:44 | 2563455 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Wow. Impressive.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:10 | 2563687 sablya
sablya's picture

Ray Dalio is one of the few people associated with Wall Street capable of independent, logical, thought.  His conclusions are the result of unbiased analysis among his team of top notch thinkers.  If he says that Germany probably won't bail out Europe, then it's probable that Germany won't bail out Europe.  Or at least they may not do it in the way you think.  They may let Europe nearly fall into oblivion and then pick up the pieces at the last moment.  Why pay top dollar for a bunch of junk that you can wait to pick up for 10 cents on the dollar in a year??  

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:09 | 2563988 macholatte
macholatte's picture


Germans tend to forget now that the euro was largely a Franco-German creation. No country has benefited more from the euro than Germany, both politically and economically. Therefore what has happened as a result of the introduction of the euro is largely Germany's Schuld -- its responsibility.

And remember, just as Germany is grateful to America for the Marshall Plan, Italy would be grateful to Germany for helping it lower its refinancing costs. If it did that, Germany could set the conditions. And Italy would be happy to meet those conditions, because it would benefit from it. Not to recognize this opportunity is a tragic, historical mistake by the Germans.

She is trapped. Merkel has realized that the euro is not working, but she cannot change the narrative she has created because that narrative has caught the imagination of the German public, and the German public has accepted it.

George Soros on the Euro Crisis 'A Tragic, Historical Mistake by the Germans'

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:33 | 2564185 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

false. the banking systems of every country benefitted from the creation , and along with them , the politicans, and lastly the people. 

it was first in, last out. the people are now losing, soon the politicians will lose and lastly the bankers will finally lose. 


banking systems rely ultimately on the power of devaluing money supply ( stealing people's savings ) in order to upkeep their 'solvency'. without theft of deposist, the run by depositers eventually produces a default for the bank ( the end of trust in the bank results in the bankers inability to continue stealing deposits which shuts down his business ). 

so------if you want to guarantee someone's right to take deposits , to take without consent,  you must rely on the very same soveirgn power that guarantees the states' right to take income and property---to tax. 

taxing power is political power, it is police power. the banks have maxed out their ability to steal their depositers money because the depositers are fleeing and buying gold and just getting their money OUT of the banks. If you want to put a stop to this with an even bigger bank, you must first create the political arrangement for forcing the depositers to be confident enough to keep their money in the bank. this will not happen just by 'papering' over the bank. At the best, that will only buy time until the next deposit run. oh yea, and by depositers , i mean at this point the institutional depositers who are dealing with the shadow banking liabilities which boggle the mind in how large they are. actual human beings with small deposits below 100k are basically just hostages along for the ride. 

You must convince the people that they have No-where else to save their money, no where to hide, and no inflation to fear. This requires a political authority . America has it, and guess what-----the american banking system will continue to devalue the dollar against gold for the next 20 years as a stable form of stagflationary demise occurs in a controlled manner by the authorities. the plan is assured because of the political will of the police state to enforce the banking systems 'quantitative raping' i meant easing of the quantitative pole up the collective asses of americans for decades to come. i can't wait until obamney gets elected in november for another 4 years.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:02 | 2564300 BigJim
BigJim's picture

On the whole I agree with you, but

 because the depositers are fleeing and buying gold and just getting their money OUT of the banks.

remember we now have an endoegenous money supply - when depositors are taking their money out of the banks and buying gold, the money isn't destroyed. If the seller of gold deposits the money back into the bank, there's been no net reduction in bank deposits.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 03:30 | 2564247 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Soros fundamentally misunderstands human nature. Bailing out nations engenders humiliation and resentment, not gratitude.

Dalio fundamentally misunderstands power. Germany is slowly being led to understand that it has no real choice in the matter; even now it is merely positioning for the best deal it can get. 

Dalio might fundamentally understand his own credibility and be looking to create one last big spook in the markets to buy some assets cheap before the next round of global thermonuclear CTRL-P.

Trust no one.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:14 | 2564054 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

The Germans have made it very clear that the conditions for progress towards banking and fiscal union is political union. The incentives to do so are obvious: Germany as pay master wants to set up a system of sticks and carrots that, as paymaster to Europe, it must control. 

In Europe the politicians recognise this but find it impractical and hard to sell to their own electorates. 

UK for example have laid out their table: they will back the German push for political union in the Eurozone as long as the sinlge market remains intact. That is their "Red line" - no going back.  

ALL EU countries want the EU to stay and to stay in the EU. So they recognise they have to sign up to greater political union.

So the choice for each country becomes one of single market or single market + single currency. For Euro-member bailout countries, now and in the past, Germany +ECB is clear: No change in conditions for bailout; possibly some change in timing of fulfillment. 

The "carrot package" was agreed between Spain, Italy and Germany: 1% of EU GDP to fund growth. 

The summit now is about negotiating with Germany over the nature of the "stick" the Germans will bring to the table.  MY guess is thast this was already agreed between Spain, Italy and Germany as the former two countries will have to bear the brunt of the stick and there is a lot of politicking behind closed doors about how to structure this because it will not be pleasant for the "socialist/left" leaning governments. OR, they havent come to an agreement as yet.  A lack of text in the Von Rompuy/Barrosso/ECB document as reported here in ZH (10 pages became 7") suggests some progress on political accountability but no clear mechanisms in place, it is possible that Germany is making a play for more power behind the scenes and this has not been agreed by everyone. 

IF countries do accept more political union/Federal Republic of Deutsch-Eurozone then the negotiations around the summit will centre on the extent of Fiscal control that will be exercised by Germany and the AAA paymasters over national budgets. 

But if there are one or two countries that have balked at the idea of the Federal Republic of Deutsch-Eurozone then there will have to be discussion about how they exit the euro and join the UK camp of single market but independent currency.  

Merkel has said it with Cameron - Your position implies a "two speed Europe".  So there is a significant potential for a surprise out of this summit - where a clear plan for a two speed europe is presented as the way forward, and countries must choose their path of "in the Euro" or "out of the Euro".  

I have no idea how the markets will react...


Edit: for those who took the time to read my comment, here is an interview with FinMin of Germany - assuming translation is accurate, it is very insightful into their current thinkig imho -






Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:25 | 2564112 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Good note. I believe the markets will rally simply on getting some clarity (even if temporary), but iI wouldn't expect it to last too long.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:45 | 2564144 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Thanks, as ZH keeps saying " all the rest is noise", there is only one voice to listen to: Germany.

I try to do that. 

The Germans are advocating an EU finance minister and directly elected EU president, plus EU law transferred from EU commission to EU parliament. 

They are going hell ofr leather on this one - this summit could be the biggest overhaul to the EU since the Maastricht Treaty

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 03:08 | 2564229 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Those in Germany who advocate any such nonsense are suicidal.  This would only end with the total financial destuction and disolution of sovereignty in Germany.  And "Der Spiegel" is a leftist trash publication.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 04:38 | 2564292 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

That is what Schauble said, read the interview.  So they are advocating it. and all news today out of the Finmin meeting yesterday evening, including France - is that EU integration is being discussed -

Rajoy today went back on political promises, says EU supervision on fiscal budget is coming, get used to it; French Finmin saying " we discussing integration, French will have to get over the loss of sovereignty", Italians are for Integration, Greeks voted it in, so who is standing in the way?


And the rest will happen rapidly - banking union, fiscal union, 


may be a good time to shift towards a  long position .....  on the banks................... while market talk is still about "Nationalist interests are going to crash this summit, no deal expected, etc.... " market and media are talking down expectations below what I'm reading but hey ho each to their own


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:50 | 2563477 vft2212
vft2212's picture

yea I remember we took over your checkbook hollywood and wall st. now swallow shnuck

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:39 | 2563594 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

and while running to the Germans for help! You insult them... 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:52 | 2563484 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

No, but I remember how Germans were barbecued in Dresden I bet it smelled like a hot dog on the 4 th of July.

Will Germany ever learn they are the world's slave?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:28 | 2563565 Svener
Svener's picture


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:19 | 2563713 sablya
sablya's picture

Germans weren't bombed in Dresden because they were the world's slaves, pup.  They were on the verge of being the world's masters.  Seriously close to global domination.  That is what is in the German blood - never forget that pup, and be afraid instead of arrogant.  Or maybe you are afraid and that's why you're talking trash...brave here on the board but a real coward when things get real...right??

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:07 | 2563822 narnia
narnia's picture

World domination is overrated. It's as noble an aspiration as getting mounted by a horse.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:10 | 2563990 JR
JR's picture

The Dresden instance, it turns out, was the most famous act of cowardice combined with treachery and pointless killing in history.

Is this not now the era of terror and the era of lies?

Perhaps that “greatest generation” in World War II learned a lot about terror and government trust. Every word of the Associated Press reports in the war, for example, moved through U.S. government censors and direction…

Thus the significance of AP’s coverage of the horrendous and relentless bombing of Dresden, Germany in February, 1945.

“This unprecedented assault in daylight on the refugee-crowded capital, fleeing from the Russian tide in the East,” the AP correspondent reported from Supreme Allied Headquarters in Paris, showed that “the long-awaited decision had been taken to adopt deliberate terror-bombing of German populated centres as a ruthless expedient to hasten Hitler’s doom.”

Note the objective of the Allies: “terror.”

The gloating in those words rings all through our era, from the unconcern for women and children burned in the streets of Dresden because they were Germans to the apathy concerning families slaughtered in the Middle East because they are Muslims

Now, the AP tells us the King of Terror is dead. 

Look in the mirror cheering youngsters: do you know if you can recognize the real face of terror?

The ancient cultural center of Dresden, a city rich in 18th century architecture, was not a military or industrial target so it had little or no anti-aircraft weapons as an air attack was not anticipated. As the war was winding down, Russian forces were sweeping across Germany from the East and Dresden’s normal population of 600,000 had recently swollen an additional 300,000 to 500,000 with refugees fleeing the Russian advance, now only 70 miles away.

Dresden had no air raid shelters; every public building was crowded with refugees, mostly women and children, and many were camped in the streets.

The first attack came at night…about 9:30 p.m. … as the British Royal Air Force sent in more than 800 heavy bombers.  All planes returned to base safely.  And while heavy black smoke covered the city next day, an armada of bombers went back to give it everything they had - 1,350 Fortresses and Liberators.  The following day, 1,100 U.S. 8th Army Air Force bombers hit the devastated Dresden a third time.

In 36 hours, perhaps, 250,000 people were killed…funeral piles of 500 bodies each burned for days.

Some isolated anguish over the Dresden attack brought to light details of a pattern of RAF terror bombing under the Linderman plan first used in March, 1942.  Professor Frederick Linderman, scientific advisor to Churchill, reasoned that bombing German residential working-class areas and smaller cities would be easier to hit than military and industrial targets, would provide greater concentrations of death and destruction, wouldn’t be as dangerous to pilots and would help the population urge their leaders to surrender

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:18 | 2564104 Salamanda
Salamanda's picture

For God's sake JR! Really?

Yes, the bombing of Dresden was one of WW2's 'nominees' when put on the scale of 'Morally Questionable Acts', but let's just keep it in perspective, when considering all the acts of horror and evil committed by the proven 'aggressor' that started the whole abhorrent episode that's blotted mankind's history ever since. Sure... 250,000 germans were killed in an horrific episode in Dresden... but would you care to comment on how that compares to the 6,000,000 systematically murdered at Sobibor, Treblinka and Auschzwitz? (For the record, I'm in no way, shape or form a supporter of Israel and its despicable record of similar acts of intolerance and cruelty and segregation against the Palestinian people, in a manner which mirrors how their fore fathers and mothers were treated between 1936 - 45 with shocking similarity.)

When one considers the shear magnitude of what the Germans did to the Jewish people of Europe for near on a decade… the manner in which it was coldly, brutally and systematically undertaken and what the psychotic, hysterical and hate-felled rationale behind this 'final solution' actually was in the minds of both the Nazis and German people alike, to then attempt to turn around and accuse England of committing the '... the most famous act of cowardice, combined with treachery and pointless killing in history...' is nothing short of truly pathetic, unbelievably ignorant, grossly ill-informed… and basically nothing more than a tragic display of shear stupidity, from a mind that's clearly delusional beyond measure.

It's pretty clear that who ever the owner of this redundant grey jelly is, should be closely monitored by professionals at all times and under no circumstances ever be allowed to venture out in public unsupervised for fear of what they could potentially attempt to try and tell people about their version of history that they believe is based in fact. Even worse, they could potentially congregate with other equally retarded people once a year and protest en-masse, the Dresden Bombings and accuse England and her allies of 'war crimes' or 'crimes against humanity' or some other such equally idiotic claim, for which the insanely enormous hypocrisy inherent in such a moronic accusation is totally lost on many younger Germans who are intent on giving credence to this ridiculous claim that their parents and grand parents were innocent victims of Churchill's barbaric acts of slaughter, when in fact they were probably standing guard to the entrance of Oven 4 as another few thousand men, women and children were made to assemble for their 'shower', before being blasted to ash in the furnaces below.

Instead of trying to rewrite history and make yourselves out as the innocent by-standers to your former leaders' mass murder and atrocities, why not just stick to making really good automobiles, continuing to produce high-grade 'Porn' that, even though fascinating in one sense, in all honestly actually just boarders on being 'sick' and pooh'ing all over your partners breasts while having sex!


Just sayin.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:54 | 2564152 mkhs
mkhs's picture

But we are the good guys.  Aren't we better?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:57 | 2564153 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Kill them all and let God sort it out.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:48 | 2564186 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture





If you think that post was "truly pathetic, unbelievably ignorant, grossly ill-informed," you should read what some of these other whacked-out goofball libertarians have to say. The super-goons who bury canned hams and shiny metal in their backyards are typically the same ones that also think the holocaust was entirely fictional.... and 9/11 was an inside job and Osama had been frozen since 2003..... and death panels.... and etc etc etc....  

Weirdos and eccentrics TO THE MAX!!

Yet truly fascinating, nonetheless... in a "Jerry Springer Live from the Lincoln Park Zoo" sorta way.  


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 03:05 | 2564225 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

The murder of the Jews is an historical fact, and an abomination.  As was the bombing of Dresden.

I do not see how one justifies the other.  The big difference is that the victors hung the losers.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:44 | 2564316 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

Well, there is no guessing as to your ethnic origins.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:09 | 2564335 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Are the negative arrows from the use of the word pooh'ing?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:42 | 2564371 cahadjis
cahadjis's picture

So you are saying just because they were bad, we have the right to be as bad? Is that your solution? Genius.

Keeping the higher moral ground counts a lot more than terror. If only the USA had learned that before randomly bombing Iraq.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 10:24 | 2564887 JR
JR's picture

@ Salamanda…

In the years following the end of WWII and the trial of surviving German leaders conducted by the victor, the Western press has been the constant spokesman for the Zionist view of history, the constant drumbeat of Holocaust stories, the intimidation of any individuals who do not repeat constantly the “never again” mantra. This lack of press freedom I am not debating here. I am suggesting here the cowardly act of hate involving primarily the Royal Air Force and Western allies as completely unappreciated in the so-called moral high ground of the Allies.

My emphasis on this greatest act of cowardice was meant to underline an importance to it that is still in our modern life being ignored.

I am just sorry I was not here to refute you earlier; you will do and say anything to bring up your Holocaust, not every year and not every month and not every day, but continuously. And no heinous act, no matter how great, is allowed to compete with that message. And you say the power and the horror lies with the German people.

“And for those who are sick of all the Hitler parodies…”

Consider developments after WWII:

In 1947, a defeated, divided, truncated, occupied Germany was a mass of rubble, its economy a desperate scratching for subsistence.

Although the Marshall Plan enabled Germany’s people to rebuild a free society and a free economy, a predecessor blueprint for genocide became the on-going principal occupation policy directive – a policy that aimed at the destruction of a nation’s people. It was the Morganthau Plan, drawn up by America’s wartime Zionist Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morganthau, and his closest advisory, Harry Dexter White (a member of a Communist espionage ring in Washington while he served as Assistant Secretary of State).

It aimed at the permanent destruction of Germany’s industrial heart and the consequent death through starvation and disease of millions and tens of millions of Germans. Time magazine has aptly called it “history’s most terrifying peace”.

The conservative newsletter, Review of World Affairs, quotes the plight of the German people after the war as follows from a confidential memorandum prepared by an eminent European economist:

“Since the end of the war about 3,000,000 people, mostly women and children and over-aged men, have been killed in eastern Germany and south-eastern Europe; about 15,000,000 people have been deported or had to flee from their homesteads and are on the road.  About 25 per cent of these people, over 3,000,000, have perished.  About 4,000,000 men and women have been deported to eastern Europe and Russia as slaves….” Quoted by Sen. Homer Capehart in speech before U.S. Senate, Feb. 5, 1946.

Dr. Lawrence Meyer, executive secretary of the Lutheran Church, Missouri Synod, after a tour of Germany at the time stated: “About 16,000,000 German refugees east of the Oder are being deported from their homes.  It has been estimated that already 10,000,000 have been driven out.  The human tragedy and suffering caused by this ’Volkswanderung’ are unparalleled in history…”

An authentic eye-witness reported…

“A large barge is slowly being towed across the Oder River.  In it, lying on straw, are 300 children ranging from 2 to 14 years of age.  There is hardly a sign of life in the whole group.  Their hollow eyes, their swollen bellies, knees, and feet are telltale signs of starvation.  These are merely the vanguard of hundreds of thousands—millions of homeless, shattered, hungry, sick, helpless, hopeless human beings fleeing westward – west of the Oder and Neisse rivers.

“A trust in God—in his goodness and mercy—these are the only hope of Germany today.  And thank God in many there is still faith in God against which the gates of hell have stormed in vain during the past decade.” (Capehart)

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:19 | 2564105 Salamanda
Salamanda's picture

just sayin

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:45 | 2564145 RECISION
RECISION's picture

Dresden was the communications and transport hub of the Germans Eastern front. 

The attack was designed to foil resupply of German armies in the east (largely at the request of the USSR, prior to a large offensive if I recall correctly), and it was quite successful in achieving that.

Civilian casualties were collateral damage of minor consideration at the time, albeit the morale effect was valued by Allied planners.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:27 | 2564183 verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

You are just regurgitating a rationalization given by the air force years after the event. Undoubtedly one reason was morale/psychological; but to say that killing almost exclusively women and children is a justifiable war aim seems evil in the extreme.


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:44 | 2564202 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 particularly because the planners were very keen on finding out if their theory of the "ring of fire" would work: by bombing Dresden in a concentric circle and starting a solid line of fire that would suck itself in and kill everything inside - using less bombs than the usual carpet bombing. And this plan was already old by then, with Dresden being "spared" until "ripe" for it. In the context of WWII there were many of those "total war" plans and techniques being explored, and many planners fully expected that they would be needed for a second round against Russia.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:59 | 2564324 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Slaughterhouse 5" Kurt Vonnegut. American POW sent to work at a Slaughterhouse on that fateful day if you want a full account.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 03:01 | 2564222 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

No, it doesn't SEEM evil, it WAS evil.  Not a difficult thing for Churchill, as he WAS evil.  Then again, one of the first thngs propagandists do is to dehumanize the enemy.  Hence, Germans became the "Huns."  This was particularly egregious, as the Brits and the Germans are virtually from the same genetic stock.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:58 | 2564215 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

May Churchill roast in hell ALONG with his allies Joe the Butcher, FDR, and his enemies Tojo, Benito and Adoph.  Bastards all.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:32 | 2563751 tulip_permabull
tulip_permabull's picture

There was no "gassing". Never happened. That's just Holohaux BS. If you visit you can get some facts on this issue that -- and this should be a red flag to you -- in many countries is illegal (and even dangerous) to freely discuss and research.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:41 | 2564314 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 13:11 | 2565455 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Thank you for that correction.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:38 | 2563435 NIRee
NIRee's picture

Well if fighting everyone at the same time is what defines the German people then logic dictates they will take the high road and tell everyone to go f themselves and drop out of the euro.

And whats with the hate? Does it anger you how successful they are as a nation?


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:47 | 2563465 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Do you define success as losing wars and being occupied? Now sell me a high quality car for some fancy green paper!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:33 | 2563579 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What goes around comes around. That fancy green paper will come back to bite you in the ass. Germans will never be bitten in the ass for being excellent engineers and for knowing how to make a fucking car unlike Detroit. Even Ford makes the new 2013 Fusion, which just might end up being a good car, in Mexico. Gotta go to fucking Mexico for quality builds.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:56 | 2563647 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

"Gotta go to fucking Mexico for quality builds"

They go there for cheap labor like all the globalist corporations.  The factory installed oil leak is a design 'feature' ... not a bug.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:13 | 2563695 knukles
knukles's picture

"Gotta go to Mexico for quality buds."
What's wrong with Humboldt, American made?





Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:39 | 2564046 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

centerfold BiCheZ!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:55 | 2563805 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Kia and Hyundai build cars in Georgia and Alabama all day long.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:35 | 2564127 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Unfortunately - Ford and Oba-GM, Oba-Fiat-Chrysler are hostage to UAW thuggery and cannot set up plants in right to work states.  Americans can build good cars but not in UAW factories.   Even the hard core marxists in Turin chrun out higher quality in a Fiat than the sh*t Chrysler makes.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 03:19 | 2564241 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Willard Romney will not save you

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:01 | 2564326 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you're up kinda late. can't sleep?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:02 | 2565663 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeap. Do they make the Optima or Sonata there?

VW makes cars in Chat but guess what? They are pieces of shit.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:40 | 2563440 123dobryden
123dobryden's picture

then tell me one war USA won in the past 67 years? Germans save themselves trilions keeping americans on their soil and if Gemrans paid so far, that money went back to german banks anyway, they will remain the greatest nation in Europe, if not the whole world, although only because competition cant see on both eyes.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:08 | 2563527 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

"and bail the world out, because, well, they have to"

We DON'T "have to".

Let them fail, and see how INCONSEQUENTIAL the event really is.

Remember Y2K ??

"Paper" losses need "paper" cures.

We will blow ourselves up over what???? BANK LOSSES???

I don't think so. TOO many other sectors of our economy.


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:08 | 2563530 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

"and bail the world out, because, well, they have to"

We DON'T "have to".

Let them fail, and see how INCONSEQUENTIAL the event really is.

Remember Y2K ??

"Paper" losses need "paper" cures.

We will blow ourselves up over what???? BANK LOSSES???

I don't think so. TOO many other sectors of our economy.


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:17 | 2563703 knukles
knukles's picture

War against poverty
War against drugs
War against racial emnity
War against environmental disaster
War against illegal immigration
War against big governnemt
War against inflation
War against economic inequality

Jesus, none so far....

War against peace
Yeah, that's the ticket
We won the war against peace.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:50 | 2564377 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

"then tell me one war USA won in the past 67 years?" "greatest nation in Europe, if not the whole world,"  I'm an American of German decent and I say Fuck You and all your dreams of superiority.  You're all a bunch of small dicked anal retentive homos. 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:41 | 2563441 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

we recently hosted a 16-year-old German exchange student. he knew a hell of a lot more about finance and politics than my high schoolers, and probably more than about 98% of American "adults."

people are people. you put anyone through enough economic hell, and they will look for a strong hand to lead them out, and to cast out the people who are "to blame." what happened in Germany pre-WWII could happen anywhere in the world as a result of the current financial crisis.

Germans are some of the best engineers, and some of the most hardworking and well-educated people on this earth, on average. Even the name for your sentiment is German: Schadenfreude.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:54 | 2563488 vft2212
vft2212's picture

Just one wrinkle pops, a wave of Nationalism takes hold of the Germans every 70 odd years and they are the cause of World Wars and may very well be the scapegoat for the next one, motivated by austerity rather than American Imperialism.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:17 | 2563547 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

That is just how we want it. Learn our language, build us things, buy our bonds. Germans are filling their role as the rest of Europe's and the USA's slave. See who is smarter?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:45 | 2563931 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

you know there's a DSM entry for this condition?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:45 | 2563612 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

You can't have it both: high moral standards and let moral hazard happen, but this what they are demanding from Germany.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:08 | 2563682 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

"what happened in Germany pre-WWII could happen anywhere in the world as a result of the current financial crisis" Indeed.  Looks like the US going to get a 'taste' of it sometime in the near future.  However, I happen to disagree about German engineering... I think their German companies actually want to build good stuff therefore ENABLE their engineers to perform well whereas American companies (or what is left of them with only a few exceptions) only want to cut corners whenever possible (I know of perfect examples) therefore crippling their engineering and ultimately their product and markets.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:43 | 2563927 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

my brother was an exchage student over there in the eighties and came to the same conclusion. Said their high schools were way ahead. .

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:53 | 2564212 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Yes, they used to be.  Not so much today.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:52 | 2564207 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Sadly, as Germany dumbs herself down through the importation of third-world parasites, and lowers the quality of her products by manufacturing in China (although, STILL marked as "Engineered in Germany," your beliefs about German education and work-ethic are becoming less true each day.

Sarrazin's book covers this well.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 07:19 | 2564399 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

So you're proud that exchange students knew more than your children?  So who do you you blame, the "system" or the parents?  I've raised and taught foster children of all races and I can't see a difference.  If I wanted to fuck with your head I would say that the Asian children I've raised actually have superior learning skills.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:28 | 2563891 nscholten
nscholten's picture

The US has 4 military bases in Irag.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:52 | 2563946 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture


I never thought about it like that but in a twisted focus on reality it is true................. good insight !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:47 | 2564205 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Point of history: The Germans were winning in both cases until the US got involved.  And even then, it was not a given.  That said, both world wars were unnecessary fraternal tragedies.  Tke first, fomented by the ruling houses of Europe for no good reason, and the second, born out of the inhumane Versailles Treaty.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:58 | 2564323 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

- a treaty which was more humane for the Germans than what they received after the Second World War.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 03:14 | 2564237 TheGermanGuy
TheGermanGuy's picture

France lost every war. Germany didn´t win either, but France lost.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 06:30 | 2564359 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Wow! You scored a -93 at the time I wrote this.  I dont think I've ever seen that here before.  Not even MDB,  Impressive.  You really hit a nerv.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 07:03 | 2564385 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

To allow German reunion has been the great mistake and the first step of European deficit explosion.

Now we get their "NEIN"


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:34 | 2563421 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Keep loaning money to deadbeats so that you can sell products back to them or suffer through a recession/depression to reset your economy to the point where you aren't relying on loaning money to deadbeats so that you can sell products back to them.  Either way, you have to eventually face the alternative.  Therefore, I don't think the "alternative" is worse, it just needs to be faced sooner.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:58 | 2563966 northman
northman's picture

Is your comment directed at Germany or China?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:45 | 2563462 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Germany will cave in by the end of July. The alternative for them is even worse.

Dont be so sure.  The Germans are a lot better at math than we in the States.  We foolishly coughed up $16T to bail out US banks on the premise they'd collapse otherwise and take our deposits w/them.  No one ever bothered to consider that there were only $9T in deposits to be backstopped.  Said differently, we could have bailed out almost 2 US banking systems with what we paid.  (And that doesnt even count the $10T extra in CB swap lines.)

And yes yes, I know the real elephant in the living room is the derivatives pile of S that's larded on top of everything.  But even here, we still could have backstopped the deposit base, declared force majeure, and canceled the derivatives contracts.  After all, they're all offsetting on a net basis anyway, or so the banksters tell us, so there's no problem....right?

Do the right thing Germany (unlike us in the US) and tell the banksters to cram it.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:57 | 2563495 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Withdrawn Sanction

Couldn't up vote your comment because of the italics field.  Well said.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:50 | 2563945 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

agree. It is sad that we are waiting and watching for Icelanders, Germans, and a host of others to do what our den of thieves called a government refuses to do.   

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:33 | 2563580 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Likewise tried to vote up but was defeated by the strange anti-vote up field (obviously of German manufacture) surrounding your comment!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:51 | 2563630 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

I just want to say bravo. This is the rub right here. We could have bailed out and backed two banking deposit bases, but instead the said banks doubled down and the base is still not ring fenced. Why the fuck is no one in prison? It goes all the way up is why! What is ailing this country, at heart, is a full on social breakdown of law and order.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:11 | 2563692 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and indeed the German government has told the banks to "stick it where the sun don't shine." indeed they have. the last time they did this "they ended up invading Russia." i don't think THAT will happen this time tho. Oh, well. We can always dream...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:18 | 2563705 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

too much star power that doesn't know what they're doing on that one. How about this one:

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 16:31 | 2566284 epi_tis_thalassis
epi_tis_thalassis's picture

Who knows, they might end up invading Russia once more! But this time they could have allies from the (far) east... Would the US move to prevent a war between Germany-Russia and China? I don't think so! I imagine they would instead put all their effort in making India enter too, so as nobody wins, everybody is weakened enough and they later come along as saviors conficating any gold unearthed by the bombs.

One has only to survive and see what happens...

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:49 | 2564142 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The Germans elected an Austrian usurper with disastorous conseqences. He actually did not win the majority of any vote.  The USA elected an ineliigible Kenyan/Indonesian muslim and CIA cutout usurper with a majority of the vote by idiots who watch TV with disastorous conseqences.  They voted who Oprah told them to vote for including white women.

The Germans sometimes have some stupid leftist inclinations at times but they are generally pretty smart.  They want the Deutsche Mark back and I think Ray D may be correct.

The US and Americans have no clue about pretty much anything anymore.  It is sad and pathetic.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:57 | 2564214 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

The Central Banks will print. It is fait accompli.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:45 | 2563615 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Really? I would love to see Reichsmarks in circulation again. And now that Berlusconi is running for his comeback on a platform of returning to the Lira, the big bet is will we see Reichsmarks before we see Lira, or the reverse?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:40 | 2564197 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Those would be Deutchmarks, not Reichsmarks.  There is no, nor will there ever again be a German Reich, as there will never again be a Kaiser.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:15 | 2563339 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Has the world known bigger, more pathetic losers than the Germans? I think not. You are the world's sex toy. You buy our bonds, furnish our fine automobiles, you house our troops. At least you know your place, filthy Huns.

Now send me a hot blond chick!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:37 | 2563430 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

What's your problem?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:05 | 2563516 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

I am trying to do the Germans a service. I want them to know they are going to have to work hard and build high quality products and they will take their profits and give them to Greece, France, Italy and the USA. That's what pussies do, give away the fruits of their labor. Get used to it!!!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:25 | 2563559 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

And therein is the real, overall, master plan of the USA.

Let the world get used to defaults - umpteen of them throughout Europe, followed by Japan and the UK.... and then,  hey presto, we got 'let off' our 16 trillion and what's more it was (relatively) a bit of a non-event.

Happy Days!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:41 | 2563601 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

You got it.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:19 | 2564305 BigJim
BigJim's picture

US Citizenism!

AnAnonymous. I almost miss his stupid musings.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 01:38 | 2564134 Rincewind
Rincewind's picture

It is an interesting approach to call them "filthy huns" with the aim of doing them a service.

I will try something along this line with my neighbor, next time I want something from him.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:04 | 2564164 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if my neighbor needed something and i could help her, she could call me a shitheaded asswipe and i'd still give it to her with compound interest

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:39 | 2564193 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Just don't forget the oral sex.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 02:37 | 2564191 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

That DOES seem to be the master plan.  And since the Germans have been cowed into a permanent state of guilt over that little Austrian corporal who led their grandparents into disaster, they basically ARE pussies who won't even fly their own national flag unless it be during a soccer championship.

And I say this as a Germanophile who lives near Frankfurt with many German friends.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:47 | 2563619 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Ze Germans like Greek boys and girls, the younger the better. Returning to the Drachma will make things soooo sweeet for Germany's hordes of perverts. Sexual Tourism is Greece's future, and Ze Germans will be the biggest customers.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:50 | 2563792 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

Some German dude must have fucked your girlfriend.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:14 | 2563537 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Speaking of fat tails, check out this crazy shit. 

That crazy, tin foil shit that Fulford has been spewing about, the missing trillions, gold, etc., has finally showed up in a lawsuit filed in NY. I googled the attorney of record and they are the real deal. High powered with a bunch of awards. I sure don't know what to make of it but it all ties in with those bonds that were confiscated going across the Italian border last year. If you read the complaint it is some wild shit! Apparently the judge that was assigned the case just resigned, I don't have any particulars on that. If this is anywhere close to being true then there is some wild moves happening below the surface. I'd be ready for anything to happen as this goes to the highest branches of several countries, including/especially the U.S.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:41 | 2563604 Mad Mad Woman
Mad Mad Woman's picture

Fulford laces his tin foil stuff with some true stuff from time to time. My partner really gets into him. But he does come across the real deals with regularity. What you read is true.

There's a lot of shit flying below the radar right now around the world. It's a lot of black ops stuff.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:23 | 2563719 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

'Bank of Nova Scotia via ScotiaMocatta'

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:51 | 2564069 billsykes
billsykes's picture

these were fake bonds. 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 19:57 | 2563313 BigJim
BigJim's picture

It's interesting to see wealth redistribution being rejected when it's asked for internationally.

Shame we don't have the same option domestically.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:05 | 2563329 macholatte
macholatte's picture


It's interesting to see wealth redistribution being rejected when it's asked for internationally.

Shame we don't have the same option domestically.


Of course we do.  The opportunity arises at least every 2 years..... it's called voting at an election.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:35 | 2563584 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Voting for Tweedle Dum or Tweedle Dumber ain't much of a choice! Both parties are vacant of any thinking.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:13 | 2563838 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I junked you for thinking voting matters.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 05:24 | 2564307 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 Of course we do.  The opportunity arises at least every 2 years..... it's called voting at an election.

Hmmm Last time I looked, I was still paying taxes imposed upon me by a government that got elected by people who'd be on the receiving end. Despite my having the vote.

'A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always rely on the support of Paul'

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:07 | 2563335 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Never under estimate what total losers the Germans are. They have lost every war for the last 100 years. They are still occupied by the USA. Hell, even Iraq caused enough chaos to make us leave. Germany is the world's bitch. They will pay what ever it takes and will remain the shittiest losers in the world.

Bend over German losers!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:14 | 2563357 FEARTHESHARK

Sorry, but I didn't understand this the first three times you posted it, so can you post it another three times for clarity?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:43 | 2563450 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

No, but I will say that Germany will pay anything, and I mean anything ANY country asks them to pay. Why? Because theynare emasculated bitches. They work hard so the rest of the world doesn't have to. I am headed to Germany soon. Maybe I can find a few blond haired blue eyed woman to pimp out. LOL!

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:52 | 2563633 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Probably you are right, because WWII never really ended.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 00:03 | 2563973 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

So true. WWII never ended, but it is clear that Western Civilization was the loser.

My father unknowingly enlisted in what would turn out to be the War to make the world safe for communism. 25 years after the end of that war I earned the same campaign ribbon that my father earned "United States Army of Occupation Europe." Indeed, some wars never end.

And the attack upon the West by its own elites, both alien and native, continues.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:30 | 2563404 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Bend over German losers!"

Lemme guess, Greek?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 19:58 | 2563316 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture


What would you do for a dear relative asking for the 5th loan this month.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 19:59 | 2563317 btb2010
btb2010's picture

He didn't make his billions by being wrong

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:00 | 2563318 veyron
veyron's picture

Tell that to Madoff ...

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:20 | 2563369 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Totally unfair. Dalio made his billions batting 0.600 with a slugging average of 1.200. He is not a 2 trick Pony like Paulson who bet against housing and then made a hugely ptofitable loan to Dow Chemical.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:00 | 2563320 The Watchman
The Watchman's picture

Fat tail. My favorite.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:26 | 2563389 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

+1 for the scary avatar.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:16 | 2563541 harmonymonkey
harmonymonkey's picture

Yep.  I could never leave her behind.

                             ~ Spinal Tap

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:01 | 2563322 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Dalio lays out the obvious as only a cool head can.  A year from now thousands of money managers will be saying "how could this happen to such fine 'very old' [ref. de Villepin] countries? Unthinkable!" and we'll just print this post for them, as we did with Kyle Bass' posts and Michael Burry's  interviews.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:02 | 2563323 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

God...What I wouldn't give to see a pay-per-view debate between Dalio and some fucktard like Steve Liesman.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:11 | 2563350 macholatte
macholatte's picture



Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, discusses the European debt crisis, investment strategy and the global economy. He speaks with Erik Schatzker at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:12 | 2563352 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Liesman is paid to be a cheerleader

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:43 | 2563452 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

as Dalio is paid to see reality. excellent point. people excel most at what they are compensated/evaluated on.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:45 | 2563461 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

100% correct. Good post.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:05 | 2563330 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The Euro was developed with a plan and a survive. No where have I read of a plan to bail each other out of indescriminent spending. Certainly not the long term,structural kind that comes with socialist programs for age security and healthcare (the kind politicians rather than insurance companies dream up.)

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:36 | 2563431 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

"The Euro was developed with a plan and a survive."

No, it was designed to fail:

And civil war is such an ugly thing . . .

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:51 | 2563632 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

"The Euro is a burning building with no exits." (William Hague)


I just love watching stuff burn.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:05 | 2563331 PhilB
PhilB's picture

I dont think people have a clue as to how the ECB works including dear old Ray. Get with the program Ray, the truth be told, the ECB can , in theory, run over the votes of Germany. The ECB runs by simple majority vote in the end. Germany has been overruled many times already (Axel Weber on Bond Purchases) and now you can guess the LTROs and lowering of credit quality.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2563363 web bot
web bot's picture

Ray Dalio is a financial Einstein. He has a cult culture that is based on hypothesizing everything... with 5,000 employees doing this day in - day out.

And... who are you?

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 20:50 | 2563474 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

It works every day, until it doesn't. Getting cocky means the end is near.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:11 | 2563690 PhilB
PhilB's picture

If i had a euro for every time a financial einstein spouted shit to the masses and dogs like you lap it up as if it were pearls of wisdom i could bailout the EZ by now. What he says about the ECB is just plain wrong. WHat the hell does he mean by "key elements"?. Germany has been bitching while Draghi has been doing the slapping...get your cheek in line biatch cause your next.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:22 | 2563865 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Repeat question:


Who are you?





It looks like the answer is self-evident.


Tue, 06/26/2012 - 21:53 | 2563637 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Germany can leave. Then the ECB will be free to print to infinity and beyond, they will,  and the Euro becomes a Drachma. You won't want to hold Euros after Germany leaves.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 22:14 | 2563696 PhilB
PhilB's picture

Andrew. Germany can leave? Really?? I guess so, but not after if it gets fucked over on 1 Trillion plus Euros of money its owed. Oh and less you have forgotten, some 70% of Germany's current account surplus is within the EZ. Germany would be like the US in the great depression.

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 23:48 | 2563940 fattail
fattail's picture

The ultimate fattail, Germany should leave, I can't figure out why they are sticking around. 


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