This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Ray Dalio On How The Economic Machine Works

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"It's never different this time." Ray Dalio's recent discussion at the Council for Foreign Relations is probably the most in-depth access to his 'model' explanation of the way the world works we have encountered. From bubbles to deleveragings and how the inter-relationships of various cycles bring about consistent trends and corrections, the clip below and full readings are perhaps useful as we tread Wile E. Coyote-like off the edge of traditional monetary policy and encounter apparently different environments that in fact have occurred in perhaps alternate ways again and again over time. Great weekend viewing/reading on the three ways out of the current crisis that the Fed clearly believes we are in and the inevitability of his findings that "in all deleveragings, in the end they print money."

 

Full CFR discussion and Q&A...

 

Follow-Up Foreign Affairs Interview:

 

 

And the full PDF (here) of Dalio's model-process:

 

 

 


 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:14 | 2797602 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Um, CFR? They don't need the lesson, they know how this catastrophe goes because they're the cause of much of it.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:26 | 2797629 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Imagine that. A CNBC snakeoil salesman shill hosting a CFR discussion. Who would have guessed

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:45 | 2797669 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I can describe how the machine works in three words: chew, chew, spit

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:39 | 2797802 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Fraud, Theft, War

There... fixed it forya...

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:22 | 2797958 Element
Element's picture

Ray + CFR = "beautiful deleveraging *"

 

 

* = as long as you aren't one of the 99%.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 07:17 | 2798199 economics9698
economics9698's picture

CFR? Where is the rope?  

I can see why he's on the CFR panel; he's sugar coating the QE for the elites pay off.  People need to remember that the elites create money from nothing except administrative cost, say, I am exaggerating, 5%, and so if a bank can loan out money at 100% plus interest even a 50% payback is a 45% gain.

The problem is not that the banks do not what the 50% but the write off screws up the books and exposes the fraud to the public, and once the fraud is exposed why not write it off to 6%?

The best deleveraging for the people is bankruptcy, plain and simple.  This bankrupts the bastards that created 350% debt to GDP ratios; it should have NEVER exceeded 150%, and created a new world order based on sound money.

The bottom line is we need to get back to 100% fractional reserve banking, gold and silver.  All this is bull shit and a way for the elites to get out of this shit sandwich they created while maintaining their power.

Is Tyler the 5th column? 

 

10 year cycle?  BS.  Two year cycle.  Bankruptcy, eliminate central banks, silver, my choice, but gold works just as well.

 

So paying for welfare with inflation is fine for the CFR.

Real debt = Current Debt ($1.3 trillion) – (inflation rate 2% x total debt $16 trillion)

Or $1.3 trillion - $320 billion = $980 billion real deficit. 

So if the CFR can do some QE and bump the inflation rate up, hoping the peasants do not see their Coke 24 packs reduced to 20 packs, then 18 packs for $6.00, they can achieve this type of deleveraging and maintain poor.

In other words what the CFR is saying is Mitt Romney will change the math to;

Real debt  - $1.3 trillion – (10% inflation rate x $16 trillion)

Real deleveraging = $1.3 trillion - $1.6 trillion a mother fucking surplus due to the magic of the inflation tax.

Fucking real fucking original mother fucker.

I think we have seen this picture before.

I got it, lets kill the central banks, go back to private money based on silver or gold, and cancel all government debt and social justice programs.

I bet in 4 years the GDP will be growing 5% to 10%.  Just a guess.


 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 17:00 | 2799224 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Here is how the world economy works.

 

create ponzi scheme and put yourself at the top

get future generations to join at the bottom

force foreigners to join even lower with gunboat diplomacy

don't let anyone else create their own ponzi pyramid.

 

tada! you are the king of the world with your assets all of sudden made you "rich"

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:03 | 2798127 Sir Edge
Sir Edge's picture

This Time... Ray... It IS different...

Due to the extent of the corruption in the system...

In past economic recessions and depressions (1873, 1907, 1921, 1930's, etc) the GeoPoltical-Economic System was ONLY corrupt at the margins...You still had many people in Political and Economic power who were moral and 'who did the right thing'... or even TRIED to do the right thing...

Not this time...

Now the corruption is systemic... We have a system saturated with moral hazard, cronyism and plutocratic fraud... To The Brim...

The Corruption is Geo-Systemic... The Barbarians Are No Longer At The Gate...

Mirror... Mirror On The Wall...

Cj...

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 15:19 | 2798144 putaipan
putaipan's picture

who got the doo like romoney?

one little fuckin' greenie !?!

this guy pointsout the obvious

and you people got ONE LITTLE FUCKING GREENIE!

i feel like asking for one or two more knives up my ass...either that or another oil deal with tony...

(edit- 23 little greenies and counting.....there we go)

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:33 | 2798366 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

As more people learned how it worked, they were brought in on the game. Increasing operating overhead and the vig it needs to sustain the status quo.

In the past you could clean out the weak hands with inflation and they would put it down to bad luck. Now you will have everyone wanting back in right away at the start of the new game because they know how the ponzi operates.

That sets the stage for a dramatic housecleaning this time around.

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 10:21 | 2798430 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

I would add another reason this time it's different: Derivatives in massive quantities. Please call out if this basic premise is incorrect.

Dalio describes all debt delveragings as being a combination of austerity, debt restructuring and money printing. Please correct me if this is incorrect, but I believe we never before when into these debt saturation situations had derivatives that dwarfed the sized of the entire system itself.

Thus, while austerity can be practiced to a degree, debt restructuring/write-downs cannot happen (e.g. Greece) because that will blow the derivatives complex sky high, taking down the entire financial system. Thus, this time will be different in that the deleveraging must come primarily through printing. Massive printing.

And therein lies the rub: print all you want to deleverage, but when the inflation becomes intolerable, people's confidence will snap (be lost) and now you've entered an entirely different 'state' within the system that will never allow one to go back to the previous state.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 15:06 | 2799009 billsykes
billsykes's picture

He also states that one mans debt is another mans asset. 

Missing the premise that the money comes from nothing. If it does come from nothing, its a no brainer to get closer to that genesis of so called asset creation. You can have all the deleveraging you want but the closer to the source or being the source , nothing will ever happen to you. Think about it, all the banks go broke- the economy is in shambles, riots in the streets, that kind of thing- who  has access to a old or new system and has the infrastructure for credit and debits, gold standard or something else entirely? the banks.  They will always win, even if you overthrow the government, you need funding- that funding comes from....... financial institutions.  Say you do over throw the govt, then what? you need someone to keep the lights on, keep the water running- you have to pay someone to do that, even in a full on perfect barter system there would be a need for a bank or a store of excess barter credits.

 

I try to never put faith in oracles, ray's whole premise is that he has figured it out, until he doesn't.

Me, I think it will be some kind of regulated (read central planning) type system that is totally opaque and is run by algorithms constantly regulating and monitoring every transaction and adjusting accordingly.

 

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 10:56 | 2817895 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Even algos have fundamental premises built in, like rate of inflation, etc. Not built in: whir and zip of bullets, Molotov cocktails, etc. Nope. Shut down and restart by strong man. Not pretty.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 11:56 | 2798577 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

"Now the corruption is systemic... We have a system saturated with moral hazard, cronyism and plutocratic fraud... To The Brim..."

So much truth in that Sir Edge. The best regulator in any economic system is morality. Every law or rule is insignificant by comparison.

Anyone American who is at least, say, about 50 or older, remembers the attitudes of people toward politicians and government and the system, in the 70s, and how very different it is today. Something happened during the 80s. GREED became good. Big government and big debt became good. Bankruptcy lost its taint, as did living on the dole. "Strangers" were no longer adults to be respected but potential predators, as were teachers. Bragging became the norm ("My child is the smartest kid at Richbitch High".) Humility died, as did any form of sublety. Showing off your wealth become good. Keeping up with the Jones's became imperative. Guys like Woodard and Bernstein were no longer welcome in the newsroom. Everything was for sale. EVERYTHING. Including your privacy, something SANE people used to cherish.

It's only gotten worse. GREED RULES EVERYTHING NOW. The love of money won out. If I were a religious person, I'd probably be convinced that the Rapture happened, and the saintly folks all got swept off to the decent and pleasant Planet Earth.

We all live amongst madmen now. Most everyone around us are petty Satans.

Say, can I film you riding a bike off a cliff with a 20" dildo hanging out yer ass for a Youtube video? The chicks will really dig it man...in fact I just filmed those chicks for a new pilot I call "Idiotic Anti-Morality for Sale", but the producers want to call it "Keeping Up With the Kardashians."

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2817940 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Yeah, uh, what happened, was dohse kids of the 60s, uh that Woodstock crowd, uh yeah, they grew up ya'see. They were spoilt, anchored only in themselves and dope. Then they spoilt their children and ' bout everybody else. They's votin for Hopey Clown, and dem other clowns, dey voting for Mittens. De rest? Deyz buying' gold. Dats what I hear. Yassuh!

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:40 | 2797892 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

In the history books, monumental events are described in just a word or a paragraph. It takes seconds to read. To those who lived them, they took years. We are living history. We want it to be quick and concise, but reality takes a bit longer. sorry.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. In the end this system will implode to be replaced with a new and improved system. (after a suitable period of chaos) It is happening NOW. The problem is that NOW isnt a day or minute or nanosecond. It is a month or a year or a decade.

You cant day-trade your way out of this. Its a long game. Invest all your assets wisely, including time. Play with your kids/friends while you wait for the end; it might take a while.

patience is a virtue

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:19 | 2797962 uff the fluff
uff the fluff's picture

Meh. Things have been almost exactly as they are for 300 years and were surprisingly similar for at least a thousand or two before that. There won't be some brave new world after the next big war. We could however see the end of any edifice of democratic or republican governance but those have come and gone and will return again if we aren't all dead.

 

You're damn right about spending time with family and friends though.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 01:14 | 2798098 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

+1 to you and +1 above.  The real wild card here is Mother Nature..

Humanity is so insignificant.

We're mold on an orange...

people are cancer on the planet.

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 11:11 | 2817980 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Nahwwww man. Mankind created in image of God, but badly fallen, depraved beyond confusion. God will come to get His redeemed after global NWO is established. Won't be long now. Things moving damned fast now. Best listen to a Real Savior Who is not silent.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 07:18 | 2798250 Zadok
Zadok's picture

Yup! Right on. New system same as the old system with just enough Strategic pausing to get 'support'. He really nailed the pacing concept with most people experiencing it for the first time. This time appears different only in that it looks like the naked dash to the end game of perpetual debt servitude on a global scale as opposed to nationally. Replacement coming soon after sufficient suffering to soften up the weak hearted...

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:21 | 2798145 putaipan
putaipan's picture

patience is a virtue...but i don't have the .....tiiiiiiiiiiime!    - d.byrne

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 08:17 | 2798288 petolo
petolo's picture

Profound. Life is a long study whereit is best to embrace past and present virtues than toto grasp at 30 minute chimeras and facile analysis. Maybe it won,t rhyme this time. We,re going to need somesome new thinking in the lifeboat this time.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 00:29 | 2799919 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

Bullshit!

" this system will implode to be replaced with a new and improved system.".

Who said?

The next system will be worse. There are too many reasons, from an apathetic, ignorant populace, to peak energy, to continued US imperialism , etc etc

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 08:13 | 2798284 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

All you have to do to make it in Journalism is copy everything the CFR says in its own articles. In no time you'll be Editor. Maria Barfalomo's future looks bright.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:10 | 2797850 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Yep! CFR can also be spelled NWO.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:02 | 2797918 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

"Um, CFR? They don't need the lesson, they know how this catastrophe goes because they're the cause of much of it."

 

I like the fact this is the only website in the world where you get a consensus thumbs up for bad mouthing the CFR! Like-minded people, thanks for visiting my site and spreading Liberty! www.TopTheNews.com

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:10 | 2798024 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Where is your son? Did he snag the PS3 from the basement and head for NK? LOL

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:29 | 2798357 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

On this post today on Bridgewater's Ray Dalio and his presentation, the crappy 'slideshare' programme here is crashing the computer for some of us every time we open the ZeroHedge page on this.

For those who would like to read the Ray Dalio presentation on 'How the Economic Machine Works: Leveragings and Deleveragings', you can find it directly in simpler pdf form here:

http:/howtheeconomicmachineworks.com

Or here:

http://bwater.com/Uploads/FileManager/research/how-the-economic-machine-...

Or you can read the presentation and interview with Ray Dalio at the CIA-affiliated Council on Foreign Relations ... quite a creepy organisation, of course:

http://www.cfr.org/united-states/ceo-speaker-series-conversation-ray-dal...

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:22 | 2797617 babylon15
babylon15's picture

Why is it, that every time a manager broadcasts their strategy to the world, they soon have their worst year ever.  Reminds me of John Paulson.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 11:52 | 2798581 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Dalio is a poor speaker but much better at putting his thoughts down on paper in a manner that makes them comprehensible.

It did not help Ray that Maria continually interjected questions that were off the topic he was attempting to explain.

I also noticed that when confronted with the 'inflation' question he immediately jumped to the same macro economist tactic that many resort to; 'I am not talking in the gas/grocery sense of inflation but the large deleveraging that is taking place in assets across the world'... bs, iows.

Ray best stick to giving talks to groups like the CFR and avoid talking to Main Street... people on Main Street believe that gas and grocery prices matter!

Ray admitted in the second video that 'large profits in stocks/bonds are not going to happen as in the past' (in reference to a comment attributed to Bill Gross of Pimco)... So, is Ray looking for a cushy job somewhere in the government?

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:24 | 2797624 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just a little Friday geopolitical comedy. Watching Obama and his peanut gallery has become humorous.

 

Hillary Clinton Ad - 3 AM White House Ringing Phone

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “Hello Bibi, how are you?”

 

 

Netanyahu – “I was hoping to get more than a phone call at 3AM; after all you are meeting the Muslim Brotherhood Egyptian Prez in a few days.”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “I’m sorry for that, but my schedule is too busy. But I’m taking care you.”

 

 

Netanyahu – “Taking care, HOW? Iran will have nukes before Christmas, while nothing done up to now has worked.”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “We are doing all we can. But your comments are making me lose face. In fact, I can blame you for my ambassador getting raped and killed in Lybia tonight.”

 

 

Netanyahu – “Me??? We told you four months ago of what they were up to. How can you blame me for what you knew would happen months ahead of time?”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “All that is water under the bridge. But you know personally that if I lose face, the world becomes unsafe for YOU and me. By the way, you better call off your plans to bomb Iran’s targets, or else you will not have an IDF air force to protect you.”

 

 

Netanyahu – “What???”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “If you attack Iran BEFORE my re-election, I will be forced to order my planes to shoot down your entire IDF air force, and then you will end up with Iranian nukes, and without an air force to protect you.”

 

 

Netanyahu – “I hope you are aware that such a move would mean a second Jewish Holocaust.”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “Don’t exaggerate Bibi; you Jews always speak in hyperbole. You know as well as I, that I am better qualified to defend you than your IDF.”

 

 

Netanyahu – “Like when? When have YOU ever defended Israel from her enemies?”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “You don’t know all the requests I constantly get from your Mideast neighbors to help them invade you, and I have kept them back. I’m actually protecting you. By the way, I need $500 million in campaign contributions if you know what I mean…”

 

 

Netanyahu – “I do know what you mean. I am not Hugo Chavez though; so I can’t dispense with the money of Israeli taxpayers. But, I suggest you don’t try that line again. In fact, I suggest you keep your air assets from getting in our way, or else you may find out the hard way that I mean to protect Israel. This ends our chat, good night.”

 

 

D?MOC?AT Pa?ty D?a? L?ad?? – “Don’t hang up please. What do you mean? Damn, he hung up!!!”

DEAR LEADER's latest call to NETANYAHU on 9/11/2012 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:23 | 2797861 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Eschew excess verbiage.  You're harming the message.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:25 | 2797626 kito
kito's picture

Tyler maybe its better to post krugman interviews, at least he is more entertaining.... dalio now warns that the u.s. SHOULDNT WORRY ABOUT TOO MUCH DEBT....that the u.s. should be worried about austerity.....this from a guy who says the u.s. is deleveraging beautifully.......dalio has proven to be a globalist shill.........

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:16 | 2797742 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Kito, Dalio is right we are going to have neither hyperinflation nor deflationary collapse, we are going to destroy the capital of the rich and corporations in this deleveraging. Dalio probably read Tooke and Fullarton, especially on credit having nothing to do with velocity (bills of exchange for Tooke), and also on circulation and wages relationship, and the fact that circulation and inflation are related, while devaluation and inflation are not in the short term. Finally long term rise in interest raise cost of production and rise prices up. Devaluation of currency against assets does not increase the circulation in the short term.

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:33 | 2797875 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

I'm not, by any means, disputing your fine Dalio is a prove glbalist shill.

I just want to point out that Dalio is 10 fucking years late to the bullion party, and those snorting gold are anything but worried about BS austerity.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/davos-sherman-okst/sterling-samos-moment

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:39 | 2797993 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Dalio is so smart he always sounds fucking stupid.  That must be some special level of brilliance.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 01:13 | 2798094 Element
Element's picture

I suspect he and Richard Koo are lovers ... the Krug joins in sometimes

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:33 | 2797641 Gloeschi
Gloeschi's picture

Did Maria chew a gum during her intro? Her questions reveal how clueless she is without a teleprompter. And Ray, unable to utter a complete sentence or to give a straight answer to simple questions, looks at HER for help?

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:42 | 2797658 topspinslicer
topspinslicer's picture

I was going to watch this but am I to believe the CFR has observations and answers that will benefit individual freedom? Color me skeptical...

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:48 | 2797675 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

This kind of thing is the hedge fund equivalent of a company name going up on a major sports stadium.  A major step along the path to near term hubristic doom.  

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:52 | 2797687 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"It's never different this time."

In a corrupt system, it eventually most certainly will be.

Anyone discussing economic theory who still neglects the corruption and neglects social forces is spouting self-serving drivel,

perhaps even unwittingly... and that is a most dangerous thing in itself...

and

that's how We got here.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:31 | 2797872 gjp
gjp's picture

Well said cabreado

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:25 | 2797973 uff the fluff
uff the fluff's picture

When's the last time the world was run by the non-corrupt then?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:48 | 2798393 WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

Sumarians

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:53 | 2797690 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Works? More like bullied.

The FED asset sheet doesn't matter. The deficits don't matter. The debt doesn't matter. The ratings don't matter. The fundamentals don't matter. All that matters is WILL BEN PRINT??

In other news, oil in Canada just took a hike, thanks to Ben. Gas was 5.25$ a gallon Monday. It's now 5.86$ a gallon. And it's going higher thanks to Ben insane policies.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:47 | 2797900 You Didn't Buil...
You Didn't Build That's picture

Dalio does not own oil?

That's definitely odd in this environment.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 20:57 | 2797706 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Balls deep in gold.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:39 | 2797729 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Maria seems a lot more pleasant early in the AM.  But did she forget to take out her retainer?

 EDIT 1 ----------

Money quote: "In every generation, there is some period of time that will ruin...there is a RUINOUS asset class and will destroy wealth, and YOU DON'T KNOW which one that's gonna be.  In your lifetime."

MB: Will we have a recession in 2013?
RD: I'd like to distinguish between a recession and a depression.
MB (breezily): Sure.
RD: I think there's more a risk of a depression than a recession.

I think he hits on something with  that "recession" vs. "depression" thing.  In Ray's mind, it seems to be the difference between "that which can be fixed with monetary policy" and "that which is beyond all hope of repair by monetarists."

WTF moment-- blunderdog paraphrases "[The US economy]...is sustainable as long as we continue to have good fiscal and monetary policy."

He doesn't *mean* to imply we have either, does he?

  EDIT 2 ------------

(Man, I was down-arrowed before I even commented for serious.  Poor me.)

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:11 | 2797736 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

alternate link

Ray Dalio  |  October 2008 (Updated March 2012):

 

http://www.bwater.com/home/research--press/how-the-economic-machine-work...

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:11 | 2797737 economicfreefall
economicfreefall's picture

Faber about the money printers...

“If I had messed up as badly as Bernanke I would for sure resign. The mandate of the Fed to boost asset prices and thereby create wealth is ludicrous — it doesn’t work that way. It’s a temporary boost followed by a crash,” Faber said.

“QE helps rich people whose asset prices go up and whose net worth then increases but it doesn’t flow to the man on the street who is faced with higher costs of living with price rises. You just have a small economy that is booming but the majority of the economy is damaged by QE,” he said.

“The money printers are responsible for this crisis. If we continue with this expansionist monetary policy we won’t be facing a fiscal cliff it will be a fiscal grand canyon,” he added.

https://miningstockvaluator.com/news.php?id=123

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:03 | 2798019 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Faber is 110% right but none are so deaf as those who will not hear. We know for a fact that in the debt inspired orgy of stimulus, the top 1% reaped 93% of the income increase that followed.

You cannot rehabilitate an unproductive garden by dumping all the fertilizer in one corner.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:11 | 2797739 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

For the thumb down brigade, Geopolitical policy creates the outcome of Dow Jones. When special interest groups make a wrong policy decision, the market selloff is blamed on a fat finger event. Contrary to what the media teleprompter puppet reports on TeeVee, the controlling [NGO] interest groups are running the show.  

 

Thank you for your negative votes, you’ll be exposed in time for the very deception you so dearly protect.. Carry on comrades! 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:21 | 2797767 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Huh?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:47 | 2798391 WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

Muslim bankster scum

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 11:44 | 2798575 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Sorry, your profiling skills don't match my skin color. Never shoot the messenger. We're trying to help you see their vision. Exposure is the best way to avoid statism.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:36 | 2797987 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

Dollar no longer primary oil currency as China begins to sell oil using Yuan

September 12, 2012
By: Kenneth Schortgen Jr

http://www.examiner.com/article/dollar-no-longer-primary-oil-currency-as...

On Sept. 11, Pastor Lindsey Williams, former minister to the global oil companies during the building of the Alaskan pipeline, announced the most significant event to affect the U.S. dollar since its inception as a currency. For the first time since the 1970?s, when Henry Kissinger forged a trade agreement with the Royal house of Saud to sell oil using only U.S. dollars, China announced its intention to bypass the dollar for global oil customers and began selling the commodity using their own currency.


Lindsey Williams: “The most significant day in the history of the American dollar, since its inception, happened on Thursday, Sept. 6. On that day, something took place that is going to affect your life, your family, your dinner table more than you can possibly imagine.”

“On Thursday, Sept. 6… just a few days ago, China made the official announcement. China said on that day, our banking system is ready, all of our communication systems are ready, all of the transfer systems are ready, and as of that day, Thursday, Sept. 6, any nation in the world that wishes from this point on, to buy, sell, or trade crude oil, can do using the Chinese currency, not the American dollar. – Interview with Natty Bumpo on the Just Measures Radio network, Sept. 11

This announcement by China is one of the most significant sea changes in the global economic and monetary systems, but was barely reported on due to its announcement taking place during the Democratic convention last week. The ramifications of this new action are vast, and could very well be the catalyst that brings down the dollar as the global reserve currency, and change the entire landscape of how the world purchases energy.

Ironically, since Sept. 6, the U.S. dollar has fallen from 81.467 on the index to today’s price of 79.73. While analysts will focus on actions taking place in the Eurozone, and expected easing signals from the Federal Reserve on Thursday regarding the fall of the dollar, it is not coincidence that the dollar began to lose strength on the very day of China’s announcement.

Since China is not a natural oil producing nation, the question most people will ask is how will the Asian economic power get enough oil to affect dollar hegemony? That question was also answered by Lindsey Williams when he pointed out a new trade agreement that was signed on Sept. 7 between China and Russia, in which the Russian Federation agreed to sell oil to China in any and all amounts they desired.


Lindsey Williams: “This has never happened in the history of crude oil. Since crude oil became the motivating force behind our (U.S.) entire economy, and everything in our lives revolves around crude oil. And since crude oil became the motivating factor behind our economy… never, ever has crude oil been sold, bought, traded, in any country in the world, without using the American dollar.”

“Crude oil is the standard currency of the world. Not the Yen, not the Pound, not the Dollar. More money is transferred around the world in crude oil than in any other product.”

“On Friday, Sept. 7, Russia announced, that as of today, we will supply China with all of the crude oil that they need, no matter how much they want… there is no limit. And Russia will not sell or trade this crude oil to China using the American dollar.” -Interview with Natty Bumpo on the Just Measures Radio network, Sept. 11

These duo actions by the two most powerful adversaries of the U.S. economy and empire, have now joined in to make a move to attack the primary economic stronghold that keeps America as the most powerful economic superpower. Once the majority of the world begins to bypass the dollar, and purchase oil in other currencies, then the full weight of our debt and diminished manufacturing structure will come crashing down on the American people.

This new agreement between Russia and China also has serious ramifications in regards to Iran, and the rest of the Middle East. No longer will U.S. sanctions against Iran have a measurable affect, as the rogue nation can simply choose to sell its oil to China, and receive Yuan in return, and use that currency to trade for the necessary resources it needs to sustain its economy and nuclear programs.

The world changed last week, and there was nary a word spoken by Wall Street or by politicians who reveled in their own magnificence as this event took place during the party conventions. A major blow was done on Sept. 6 to the American empire, and to the power of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. And China, along with Russia, are now aiming to become the controllers of energy, and thus, controllers of a new petro-currency.

Related posts:

1.CHINA IS LAUNCHING A GOLD-BACKED WORLDWIDE CURRENCY !!

http://theunhivedmind.com/wordpress2/?p=5214

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:17 | 2798033 tired1
tired1's picture

I think the Beast is going to be very angry.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 17:14 | 2798701 Pseudolus
Pseudolus's picture

they wont be angry, its all in the transition playbook

Look how artfully orchestrated events are: ECB/Frankfurt/iPhone/FOMC

There must be huge guffawing behind the curtain as they stick it to us time and time again, more and more openly...and we just keep coming back for more

QE^n; shows they dont care what happens to FRN's. Exorbitant privilege will be abused to the end

When all the little ducks are lined up right...thens the change we all hoped for...

Le chant des cieux, la marche des peuples ! Esclaves, ne maudissons pas la vie.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:58 | 2798074 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

I think your points are very important, and something I would like to see Zero Hedge pursue furtther in research and analysis. Could be a real game changer.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:48 | 2798231 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

The USD was wounded on the day they decided to disable the SWIFT platform for certain transactions.

That amounted to starting to dismantle SWIFT. Perhaps it will soon be abandoned for a platform that works better.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 07:45 | 2798272 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Anyone got a link direct to the PBOC quote ?

Rather have it from the horses mouth before it is expelled at the other end.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 07:59 | 2798277 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

The Chinese government has stated clearly that the Yuan will be fully convertible by 2015 (actually they have moved this date forword). Thus the gold buying and also the encouragement to the private sector buying of PMs ( this is to offset the domestic shadow banking scams that are fleecing the populous).  So make this deadline of what you will but they are positioning for this outcome vis-a-vis the EURO/USD meltdown.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:33 | 2798369 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

US sanctions against Iran prove to many countries that they could be singled out next - especially with romney coming out with statements about russia and china that are way too aggressive

the world doesnt want US control and edicts. it may be finally time for the MIC and Banks to retire and harvest their 60 years of wins

 

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 11:20 | 2798546 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

The gray swan has arrived. Grey, because anyone who looked could see it coming.

Won't be able to print the way out of this one.

Things will get interesting as a trickle of dollars returning to the US become a flood.

Bernanke bonfires? Stop the presses and light the fires.

I'm pretty sure the result will cause some itchy trigger fingers in Washington because the gangsters don't sit idle when they get muscled out of a racket.

Very grim times ahead.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:28 | 2797785 partimer1
partimer1's picture

Dalio is a unique guy to watch. He doesn't follow any theory but his own. He is a true independent thinker. You will be amazed how few of those are there on the planet. Great stuff.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:50 | 2797905 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

thanks Ray.....

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:33 | 2797797 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

The PDF has some good charts and tables.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:37 | 2797800 mayhem
mayhem's picture

tgif

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:38 | 2797806 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

TPTB are really trotting out the talking points on why the Fed is action is beneficial and even some "antiFed" people so it appears that dissent is alive and well, which of course it is not.

I have a feeling this time the Fed has gone too far and something is coming.

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:50 | 2798009 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The FED knows exactly what it's doing. It is engaging in a controlled demolition with asymetric damage. Everyone except the top 1% is being gradually pauperized. The purpose of QE is just to extend the time frame both as a means of wrenching the remaining wealth out of the masses but also so as to do it over time to mask what is happening.

If Ray was honest enough, he would have asked, "how the fuck is middle America going to deleverage when its income is going down in real terms and its assets either cannot be sold to pay off debt or have now retreated to negative equity.?"

What kind of an economic revival is the FED promoting if wealth disparities are growing and manufacturing jobs are still being lost?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:57 | 2798073 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

couldn't agree more.

add to this the unspoken *nudge* of inflation on necessaries such as food, and it's another round of lets go shopping amrka!

just like the earlier runs on guns 'n' ammo, and "prepper" supplies, etc. - propping up the markets with consumer spending (and yes, the majority aren't even on this page, and if they're not, they're spending on i-stuffs, etc.).

gives everyone paying attention a bit of time to get stuff in order, including their perspectives. . .

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:45 | 2798387 WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

Damn Blood thirsty Muslim Banksters are doing it again to the planet. History repeats?

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 21:57 | 2797831 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I'm going to save this article for a time when I have an 18 pack and a shitty attitude.  I think both would be helpful.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:14 | 2797854 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The [P] word has become a household name in the United States. Poverty is gaged on SNAP members. These NGO institutions have premeditated solutions in providing financial relief under loan shark terms. More to the story, will let you uncover the grand plan.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:42 | 2797895 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Whichever Tyler posted this need a serious whack in the head with a 2 x 4.

The names have already been called above, and they're apt.

I'm just calling for fast and decisive punishment of the poster.

Don't pollute ZH with this crap.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 22:45 | 2797897 sablya
sablya's picture

When Ray Dalio speaks, YOU shut the FVCK up.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:18 | 2797960 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Who the FUCK cares what they have to say? They're part of the machine making billions! Just PR job and they enjoy it because once they're right lets them make few more millions on the backs of sheep reading and listening to that bullshit. 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:18 | 2797955 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

ArrestBobRubin: Do you feel your ass puckering or do you have the following SSRIs (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors) symptoms?

  • Nausea
  • Insomnia
  • Anxiety
  • Restlessness
  • Decreased sex drive
  • Dizziness
  • Weight gain
  • Tremors
  • Sweating
  • Sleepiness or fatigue
  • Dry mouth
  • Diarrhea
  • Constipation
  • Headaches
  • Bleeding Rectum

 

We need to know you’re DNA immediately. Your free healthcare relies on whether we think you’re a financial risk in purchasing our new magical medicine potions.

 

/sarc 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:52 | 2798066 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Heaven forbid this site should tolerate anything as insidious as differing views! Even worse the view of someone who does most of his own research and doesn’t just live by links to sites run by the likes of Icke, Rense and Jones! If those guys don’t say it, then it ain’t worth knowing. And doesn’t Tyler know that the CFR is one of the ultimate bogeymen? Hasn’t he ever followed the links that show the average genome of the membership is fifty percent reptilian? Doesn’t he know that one of the appointed short term members is one of the scariest and most dangerous women on the face of the Earth, Erin Burnett?

Personally, I could never trust anyone, nor take anyone seriously, who doesn’t say we’re all going to suffer a horrible death sooner than most people think.

Why, I’d used a silver bullet on Erin or Ray Dalio if it wasn’t such bad feng shui to disturb my stack.

(Sometimes I wonder if Tyler doesn’t pull his hair out when he looks over the collection of moonbats his site has collected.)

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 01:38 | 2798117 akak
akak's picture

Does the continual, gratuitous and egregious spewing of shit in which you regularly engage here also require the ongoing consumption of the same?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:35 | 2798149 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Yes, it does require it. I'm putting together what should be a blockbuster diet book detailing the cuisine. Would you like to write the Foreward?

So are you of the opinion that contrary views, even if well researched, should not be allowed on this site?  Did you listen to the tape? I know of this poster to whom I responded.  Up to him all Jews would be banned, not just Ray Dalio types.  Ask him.

I do go after certain voiced opinions here, just as everyone does.  You notice me, perhaps, and not the others, because you are probably in agreement with the prevailing opinions as voiced in Comments.  You may not notice when the pack goes after Robo, Max Fischer, flakmeister, etc.  When I scan the comments I look for those posts receiving the most negatives, because they tend to be the most reality-based, leaving out references to Luciferians, Rothschilds, endless false flags or psy-ops, etc. 

Tyler can ban me if he is offended, but, for example, when some whackjob starts writing stuff like "only five Jews were killed in the 911 attacks; isn't that miraculous?", I will respond, and respond with all the respect such idiocy deserves, which is none.

This is Fight Club, right?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:44 | 2798386 mattflash
mattflash's picture

I usually cannot make it through reading very many of the comments on ZH. Too much rage and too much too cute by half tire me out. I do enjoy finding an occasional gem, but for the most part it's street riot meets food fight. Cosimo de Medici - I did enjoy reading your comments and your response to the expected attacks. Thanks for some relief from the narcissistic bomb throwing.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 13:16 | 2798761 jtg
jtg's picture

Mattflash, I have to agree with your statement on Cosimo de Medici and the bomb throwers on this site.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:27 | 2797975 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

That's NOT what I got out of this interview.  Dalio is clearly one of the 1%.  He confidently, almost smugly expects that the powers-that-be will get this right and solve the problems facing the overleveraged big entities.

Dalio says we need three things - a)deleveraging, b)correct fiscal policy and c)money-printing.  But NOWHERE in the entire interview did he ever reveal the slightest doubt that governments would do this.  And NOWHERE did he ever once mention that MONEY-PRINTING IS EVIL.  (Certainly for those of us without access to the newly-printed money).  Thirdly, he never once suggested that the big overleveraged financial entities might just deserve to GO BUST.

Yes, this is the CFR.  ZH, how could you THINK this guy is interested in doing the right thing by THE COMMON PEOPLE???? 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:16 | 2798026 Element
Element's picture

 

 

a) deleveraging, b) correct fiscal policy and c) money-printing.

 

Krugman-esqe ... look at Japan .. that's how it turns out if it goes really well and you have enormous global demand as you do it.

The US an EU won't.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 10:48 | 2798484 partimer1
partimer1's picture

He is in the market to make money. He doesn't fix anything, and he is not interested in anyone's shit, poor or rich. He simply stated what happens, and he implies what will happen. He doesn't give advices, and he doesn't forecast how high or low the market will be. He is religious about the truth, the truth. The truth is poor people get poorer, rich people get richer. That's why there is gun and law. But thats not Ray's job.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:23 | 2798625 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Bit of a shame you have to iterate the obvious. Ray points out what is and how damage could be minimized if the tinkerers adjust accordingly.

The damage is done.

The guy isn't a minister preaching hellfire and damnation, just a reporter letting you know that it's all been done before and how various gambits have played out historically and what the options are.

The problem is that none of those options are good for We the People.

Foundations fund wonks who write policy for the CFR (which incidentally benefits Foundation owners) and pitch it to Govt. who in turn gets the politicians to pitch it to voters in typically obscurent fashion thus preserving the illusion of a republic.

The fact that most of those policies have ill effect on the general population is of little consequence as long as the fictional benefits of that policy to the electorate is forwarded.

The Greater Good is entirely dependent on ones point of view.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 16:25 | 2799109 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Ray went over the line with his preaching about "beautiful" deleveraging.  He stated several times that we must not succumb to the extremes on either side.  To me, this is bare faced pandering to the status quo.  He is in leaugue with Bernanke and the bankers who seem to think that saving the banks through ZIRP at the expense of savers and the middle class is a-ok and even "beautiful".  The fact that central banks create bubbles for finance to bilk people on the way up, then protect bankers at the expense of savers on the way down does not seem to bother him.  Furthermore, his game of asset allocation "boxes" is great for him and people in his industry.  They don't have to foot the risk but they make a shit load in fees no matter which way the market goes.  Does it even occur to him that the saving public would have no use for his services under a system where negative real rates were banned, like say a gold standard?  So, although he articulates the current situation quite well, from the point of view of the current status quo financial world, I think that he minimizes the risk of this wholly corrupt system coming to an abrupt end.  I think there is a real possibility that the status quo will be toppled.  For him to frame dissenters as somehow being radicals is typical of an establishment fearful for its hold on power as evidence by the circling of the wagons through very RADICAL and unconstitutional steps toward authoritarian rule.  I'm sure that Ray and his ilk, had they lived during the 30s, would have been big fans of Executive Order 6102.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:36 | 2797986 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

My view of how the system worked during this past decade or so is as follows:

In the short to medium term, credit substutes for income so as to sustain transactions but when no more credit is available or when the transactions do not give rise to income producing outcomes, then it's the beginning of the end.

The other problem was that people who saw sudden increases in their income from the unsustainable activities of others, entered into long term financial transactions (loans) which in turn collapsed with the end of the unsustainable spending of others.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 23:59 | 2798016 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture


 

 

ArrestBobRubin

 

If your DNA is not found to meet the States requirements, we will redistribute your healthcare rations to other needy patrons within the program.

 

Please watch:

Bonhoeffer Speaks Out Against Hitler

Hitler's Henchmen - The Marshall - Hermann Goering

 

Blue eyes and blonde hair have taken a new level of interest. 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:09 | 2798022 kennard
kennard's picture

Dalio is a fiscal and monetary interventionist. His views reflect the orthodoxy of the modern welfare state, beginning in, using Ray's date, March of 1933 ... when FDR "went on TV". Not once does he mention the advisability of a government balancing its budget. To Dalio, "austerity" is merely not increasing deficits. Even then, he fears the effect. His formula for extracting an economy from a downturn is a "careful balance of" low interest rates, fiscal stimulus and printing money. He attracts AUM by talking the party line of stimulus, deficits and money printing. This goes over well with the welfare state acolytes who populate the pension funds. The key to economic prosperity is balanced budgets and sound money. Ray's clientele wouldn't hear of that. If he can make money, then good for him. I am not going to be hanging on his words.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:20 | 2798035 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

CFR: Continually Fuck the Rabble

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 00:35 | 2798048 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Interesting video, though the sound quality on the inside of Dalio's head is probably a little better than what we hear as outsiders.

His "beautiful deleveraging" is not especially well understood.  It is not so much a value judgement as it is a term to define a well managed deleveraging.  Holes (defaults) are filled in again only so fast as to replace what is lost.  There's no overflow or external impact.  I don't even think he believes that is the right thing to do, but rather it is just the way societies have tended to deal with it throughout history, with varying degrees of success.  I did note that he does not seem to factor in the possibility that one day people will question how real wealth destruction can be (literally) papered over as the holes are filled in.  Beautiful or not, the possibility of a day of reckoning always exists.  Perhaps he really is well aware of it and that is why he said we will not have a recession but might have a depression.  Growth or depression;  nothing in the middle.  The way a depression could result is either because holes are not filled in and we get deflation as a by-product of deleveraging, or because there is loss of faith in the filler.

Sometimes it is a puzzle trying to figure out whom the ZH crowd loves and whom they hate.  Rogers, Faber, Gundlach, Marks, Bass, Sprott...mostly GOOD (even though all but Faber are immensely wealthy), while Soros, Dalio, Steve Cohen, and a few others....BAD.  Bill Gross straddles the line, depending on whether or not he bad mouths Benanke or touts gold.

Of the hated set, Dalio was born into modest means, isn't the politico type like Soros or Bruce Kovner, and is surprisingly unconnected for someone who has accumulated so much wealth.  He's a bit of an oddball, and most probably doesn't give a hoot what anyone thinks of him.  Perhaps he is just too much of a cold academic type for some, and lacks the kind of passion that leads to outrage.  Since none of us is overthrowing the government or storming the Fed, but rather just trying to survive according to what we see happening in society, it seems unfair to throw scorn at someone simply because he does it better.  Everybody here loves the doughty blue collar type who has loaded up with gold, silver, guns, a food supply and a really bad attitude, but there is resentment for someone who survives with greater aplomb.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 06:44 | 2798230 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

I wonder why such a pretentious prick would use the nickname Cosimo de Medici...

 

“The Medici didn’t start out as the most powerful family in Italy. Other families were just as rich, and just as ambitious. But no one knew more about getting ahead - and staying ahead - than the Medici. They clawed their way to the top, sometimes through bribery, corruption and violence. Those who stood in their way could end up humiliated - or dead... Governing Florence like a medieval mafia, the power of the Medici stretched all the way to Rome, where even the papacy was something to be bought and sold. They were the Godfathers of the Renaissance.


    “The Medici created a lucrative partnership with another medieval power, the Catholic Church. In what had to be one of the most ingenious enterprises of all time, the Medici bank collected 10% of your earnings for the Church. If you couldn’t pay, you faced excommunication - a one-way ticket to hell. The Pope himself had a massive overdraft, and the Medici bank became the most profitable business in Europe. By 1434, half the bank’s revenue came from the ‘Rome branch’, which was in fact little more than a mobile bank that followed the Pope around the world. Papal connections gave the Medici bank immense power, soon everyone wanted an account with the Pope’s personal bank. On one occasion the nomination of a new bishop was ‘delayed’, until his father - a Cardinal - had repaid their debts to the Medici bank. And the Medici kept ahead of their banking rivals because of the invention of limited liability. Giovanni di Bicci had set up a franchise system, where regional branch managers shared a stake in the business. Giovanni also banned loans to princes and kings, who were notoriously bad investments. Consequentially, the Medici business remained in the black while its competitors lost fortunes.” (The Medici)


 

Special research projects are now being undertaken to translate and publish documents from the Archives of the Medici Grand Dukes of Tuscany (1537-1743), which are housed in the Archivio di Stato in Florence. One major project is the Jewish Initiative in the area of Jewish History, Religion and Culture. “The Jews and the Medici” affirms that while the Medici were in power, from 1537 to 1737, Jews were well protected in Tuscany, the region of northern Italy where Florence, the centre of the Renaissance, is located. This alone suggests that the Renaissance was actually a revival of Jewish culture, and in particular, Hermetic Cabalism.


 

“The fate of Tuscan Jewry in the early modern period was inextricably linked to the favor and the fortune of the House of Medici. Though a Jewish presence was registered in Lucca as early as the ninth century and a network of Jewish banks had spread throughout the region by the mid-fifteenth, the organized Jewish communities of Florence, Siena, Pisa and Livorno were political creations of the Medici rulers. And like the Medici Grand Dukedom itself, these communities took shape in the course of the sixteenth century.


“In the 1490s, under the Catholic theocracy of Fra Girolamo Savonarola, both the Medici and the Jews were expelled from Florentine territory. When the Medici returned to power in 1512, the Jewish ban fell into abeyance, until the next expulsion of the Medici in 1527. In 1537 Cosimo de’Medici seized definitive control of the Florentine government and reorganized it as a princely state––the Dukedom (later Grand Dukedom) of Tuscany. This state flourished for two hundred years, under seven successive Medici rulers: Cosimo I, 1537-1574; Francesco I, 1574-1587; Ferdinando I, 1587-1609; Cosimo II, 1609-1621; Ferdinando II, 1621-1670; Cosimo III, 1670-1723; Gian Gastone, 1723-1737.


“As a sovereign prince, Cosimo I was free to dictate new terms of Jewish resettlement according to his own best interests and those of his regime. Coming from a merchant family himself, Cosimo I recognized the vast potential of Jewish capital and Jewish entrepreneurship, dispersed by the Iberian expulsion of the 1490s. By the mid-1540s, less than ten years after he gained the throne, Cosimo I began recruiting affluent Spanish and Portuguese Jews for resettlement in his capital city of Florence and his chief port city of Pisa. At the same time, many displaced Italian Jews who were neither bankers nor wealthy merchants came to Tuscany as well, particularly after the final expulsion of the Neapolitan community in 1540 and the creation of ghettos in the Papal cities of Rome and Ancona in 1555.” (Medici Archive Project)

 

 

 

 

 


 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 08:58 | 2798319 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Why use Cosimo?  Because "Disenchanted" was already taken.  I really really wanted that moniker.  The thought of being able to parade my angst in front of the whole cybersphere was a lifelong dream.  And I used to live in downtown Manhattan, so I can do the angst thing rather well, if I'm not being too pretentious saying that.

Family name was a very distant second, but in a pinch it'll have to do.  Lucky guy you are there, Disenchanted.

All the best,

Cosi

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:08 | 2799604 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Cosimo is very apropros for our times.  I'm surprised it hasn't made it on the Top 10 Baby Names for the 21st century.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 01:27 | 2798109 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The Superclass 2007

 

Fast forward to 2:20, then listen.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:00 | 2798130 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

gulp delete delete

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:03 | 2798132 q99x2
q99x2's picture

That guy is worried. How much you wanna bet he has several underground bunkers already to live out the rest of his life in.

He is worried most that democracies will interfere with what bankers need to do. My favorite hated statement of his is that you have to have a certain amount of transfer of wealth. I think he meant to say that you have to take q99x2's mother's prescription medication money from her social security benefits and give it to hedge fund managers so things don't explode. I think he is misunderstanding the situation and is only one set of eyes compared to the, possibly billions of eyes that see it differently. Although he is aware of it he says that the deleveraging has happened over and over as the IMF has documented its experience with it. Obviously he was not thinking Iceland or Argintina or many other places that they have been run out of.

Interesting that he includes the very real possibility of the rise of Hitler types. He is underestimating that since it is a worldwide revolution against banker occupation this time thanks to globalism.

This is a great video to see what the enemy is thinking.

The peculiar thing is that the CNBC actor stated China is buying the US debt but he would not say that in public. I think it is not the FED and not China that is buying the debt but more likely the Rothschilds.

I'm only 34 minutes into it.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:23 | 2798146 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

underground bunkers already to live out the rest of his life in.

 

LMFAO.. The Shelter

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 02:29 | 2798152 aleph0
aleph0's picture

FWIW

...

In the PDF ... Gold is mentioned only 328 times .

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 03:20 | 2798166 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Great videos.

Two things:

1. He believes that by moving money into the US treasury and to the Federal Government that money will get into the economy and raise GDP.

Wonderful unless you have to live in the US.

2. That the US can continue for a long time like Japan.

Nice if Japan doesn't reach its end and take the US with it.

So I liked the movie Being There with Chauncy Gardener because Chauncy made no presumptions that what said was based on anything. He did not have to appear to have a basis for anything he said. Chaucey's character was very solid compared to Ray Dalio's.

Because well one thing Earth just had another near miss of a very large asteroid and another because worldwide social unrest did not explode during Japan's lost decades.

Its over and just in the nic of time because bioengineering is about to provide us with near immortality. Who in there right mind would want to endure what is to come? me. I want to write about it.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 05:00 | 2798194 pherron2
pherron2's picture

This guy is fucking hard to listen to. Reminds me of a friend, genius with computers, but don't try getting info from him, you'll turn to stone waiting for the salient point.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 07:32 | 2798263 fourchan
fourchan's picture

this guy is the king of blather. buy gold.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 05:21 | 2798205 falak pema
falak pema's picture

An alternate view on how the Oligarchy Economic machine works from Jesse's American Café (Chris Hedges interwiew on his new book) : The Corporate State (inverted totalitarianism).

Jesse's Café Américain

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 07:25 | 2798256 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Markets are where people buy and sell products/services/stocks/gold/bonds etc.

And in a "normal" market(s) a TEMPLATE might work for a while if its a template that adjusts to market conditions.

But when you have the BFF (Big Fat Finger) of Central Planners adjusting the markets the way THEY see a market should be, buyers and sellers are tossed into chaos as they don't know which way is up or down.

For example, Bank of America and Citi should be toast and the 'bet' would be to short that stock based on all their bad MBS holding but the Fed steps in with QE3 and will now buy $40bil/month of toxic mortgages.

Gold and silver should/may be higher but the BFF of Central Planners manipulates those markets - the Plunge Protection Team buys stocks when there's downward volitility in the stock market.

There's been no real deleveraging, just talk of a potential.

So bullshit on this template and this slick salesman who wants to 'calm' the sheeple and round them up again.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:38 | 2798373 max2205
max2205's picture

Think about what a blunder th banks made when they didn't write these MBS's down. Now they could write them up to above par and their stocks would have doubled or tripled on Thursday.

Corp dumbasses

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 08:29 | 2798286 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

It will be a beautiful deleveraging in Westport, not so good where you and I live. Fuck You Ray and all your handpicked Ivy League minions.

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 08:17 | 2798287 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

The Council on Fart Repercussions...

If you want to read a good book by a CFR shill telling you what's coming down the pike, check out, "A Brief History of the Future" by Jacques Attali. It has a quote on the cover from Henry Kissinger: "Brilliant and provocative." The local library should have it as it is required reading for all Illuminati, Illuminati wannabes and Illuminati haters.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 08:36 | 2798300 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The full PDF document is quite amazing; some very good information, especially on Roosevelt and the attempt to confiscate gold and the beginnings of Glass-Steagall.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:09 | 2798328 Monk
Monk's picture

Of course, they have to "print" money. How else will all of the credit extended by commercial banks and which make up most of total money supply take place?

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:20 | 2798345 razsil
razsil's picture

Great and insightful interview. The balancing act that Ray Dlio talks about between fiscal and monetary policies is criticial. And if you dig down into each of them you will find that there is a need for balancing within each. The monetary policy is done by one institution, but the fiscal one is done by the two houses of congress and the presdient. And in Europe it is done by 17 different countries.

This is where I see the challenge. Having all those different parties work in coordination toward one goal is more wishful thinking than reality. You need to check All About Alignment - http://rsilberman.com/?p=502 -

 that shows clearly why alignment of all parties involved is critical to resolve any crisis we run into. Personal, for a comapny, and for a country. And why the chances of that happening in Europe are very small. Not encouraging, but true.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:42 | 2798383 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Thanks for posting. I wonder if Dalio thinks the deleveraging will stay beautiful after the Fed's latest stunt. There is no real balance so far, it's all one sided money printing and zirp, to the point that it is clearly causing bubble like stock and bond market action and real negative repercussions for seniors and lower income people who are watching pump and food prices skyrocket. Plus, Congress and the next President may be at odds and ineffective.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 09:56 | 2798401 Amagnonx
Amagnonx's picture

Critical failure of definitions - this guy is full of shit.  The first thing he has to say about credit is specifically designed to sound plausible, while being total bullshit.

 

He gives an example of buying something, and the vendor says 'pay me back later'.  Thats his description - which he knows for a fact is bullshit.

 

The credit issued by banks works like this;  You want to buy something on credit, the bank CREATES THE FKN MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR, and pays the seller - they then require you to pay back their counterfiet money at interest.

 

The people who actually PAY for the thing, are the people who hold that currency - because the value for the banks counterfiet is stolen from them.  So when your neighbor buys a house on bank credit, you have already paid for part of his house - thats why everyone is struggling so much - because we are made to pay for everything twice.

 

So what should we do to correct the global economic crisis?  DEFAULT!  The people have been sent into debt by their supposed elected officials - they are the ones who created money out of thin air and spent it on their cronies, and lent it from scum who were only too happy to enslave people everywhere with endless debt.

 

DEFAULT, DEFAULT, DEFAULT ..  thats the answer - screw this 'balance' - all that means is, lets ensure there are no defaults so the scum bags who created this debt get paid back.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2798402 blindman
blindman's picture

gold is a currency, he says, dollars and debt
are currency, derivatives are a currency?
favors are a currency. fine print is a currency.
that the central bank/s will print currency
is widely expected and they will distribute those
dollars according to their very own agenda.
keyword: distribution and terms.
while there may be cannibalism and zombie behaviour
in plain view on main street and in the real economy
the derivative fictitious losses may be a more
fruitful transmission mechanism to recapitalize
the important and influential "leadership" class.
one thing i wonder is how he thinks balance can
be achieved in a system that has not shown any
capacity to control or identify control fraud
and open air, in broad daylight, bank robbery
and customer/consumer raping by lenders and the bank owners? tricky balance at best i guess?
.
very kind of mr. dalio to share his insights.
.
i think the "system" and the adherents accept
that jobs, employment, is a social phenomena
associated with irrational financial exuberance.
that is there are only good employment numbers
when the monetary policy is insane, like crazy
eddie said. like people's lives have been financialized
along with everything in those lives and this is
used as the justification for a system that is based
on stealing by printing or conjuring up derivative
alternate currency that is fully exchangeable,
fungible and opaque simultaneously. what a scam
.
it is all in the distribution and cannibalism on
main street will not go over for long is my guess
so i agree he is justified to be worrying about
the "social" tensions, but, it is not really a
question of the character of the people that will
will be revealed or the determining factor, though
that is partly true, it is a judgement on the soundness and quality of the monetary and judicial system and
we are obviously failing in that respect.
.
i thank mr. dalio for an honest appraisal and for
rejecting the conman option that so many other
talking heads embrace.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 10:01 | 2798412 mewenz
mewenz's picture

Very disappointed in Dalio, to me appears to be just like many others so deeply involved in financial manipulation.  Maybe his particular ideas are a bit different and his model does help to explain things but in the end so called "beautiful deleveraging" is far too heavily focused on manipulating what belongs to someone else in a way to bailout those who took more then they gave to society.  Just a matter of how to do it, not at all whether to do it.

Where in this discussion is the concept of value creation, allocation of capital and resources to the best, brightest and most beneficial.  I know this is naive of me, but what about the simple concept of right and wrong

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:04 | 2798594 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Exactly. On the surface he appears to know what he's talking about, but underneath he's full of contradictions and frankly just an idiot. His term "beautiful deleveraging" is one example.

So... the same people who continuously miss one giant fucking bubble after the next are suppose to correctly judge some mythically sweet spot? Give me a break. Besides, deleveraging is suppose to be painful in order to change bad habits. This guy is just another joker who deserves to be working as a farmhand somewhere, after the reset.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:09 | 2798601 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

It will be beautiful for those positioned to benefit from the deleveraging...more than likely it will include those with membership in the CFR.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 10:07 | 2798423 blindman
blindman's picture

a history of fraudulent inducement is the problem,
price opacity due to politically motivated, crony,
crazy eddie monetary policy only to be resolved
by a big fire and insurance fraud dumped on the
taxpayer of last resort, ( no body...for president! ).
who will obviously never answer the charge or make
good on those other people's loans or debts or
expenditures.
ask larrry silverstein.. ' due to the terrible loss
of life, they decided to "pull" the building. '

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 10:29 | 2798455 Jim B
Jim B's picture

Worth watching….

Here is what I got out of

 

1.      We can deleverage quickly and get it over with letting the bad actors take their lumps or….

 

2.       We can do it slowly by transferring wealth (stealing) from savers and other people with assets to gamblers (Ben B’s current plan).   You have to transfer wealth slowly so the asset holders don’t catch on and grab pitchforks! 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 11:27 | 2798558 blindman
blindman's picture

i think mr. dalio is saying we cannot do number 1
with the lumps because the system goes to reset
and that is not what he does or cares to do, ever.
he is doing well with the system as it is even
with the scars, blemishes and open wounds as they
are not his, yet, or his clients.
so number 2 is beautiful.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:51 | 2798692 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Lol,

The only ones who are listening to the preacher outside the casino on the sin, destruction and corruption of gambling are the losers.

The winners are inside enjoying free cocktails.

Sometimes they change places but more often not.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 15:13 | 2799034 blindman
blindman's picture

by losers do you mean the human beings on the
earth? i think/thought so.
since i am a baby boomer, in that demographic,
i have thought that when all the people starting
having big families, 6-12 kids and like that, and
since i was no where near a first born, that
the number of human souls available at the time of my birth had been
depleted so i was born of a dog's soul or maybe
it was a wolf. an old wolf or dog perhaps but
still long experience as another species because
the human species, especially the most refined
and dominant, and their ways and approach to living
among their fellows escapes me almost entirely,
appears to be de evolutionary?
.
that is all

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:18 | 2798619 blindman
blindman's picture

Jamie Dimon’s Devil Business
http://maxkeiser.com/
Posted on September 14, 2012 by stacyherbert
.
i would like to hear mr. dalio's response to this
presentation.
keywords: imbalance, debt slavery, alternate
currency, vicar of money and vigorish, stealing,
coup de ta, global coup , your money is no good
here (in a bad way), cannibalism on main street,
did i say stealing and fraud?, cat food is too
expensive, social tension, slavery by money system
and monetary policy, devil worship financial migraine.
war of opportunity and toxic destabilization producing
ugly deleveraging.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:24 | 2798627 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

Excellent video.  This is the Council's point of view.  Purpose is to maintain the status quo; that is not only keeping the wealthy-wealthy, but those in power-in power.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 12:48 | 2798686 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

The economy and markets work best when they are free of government intervention.  Our failing economy and markets are the direct result of central planning and the desire of government to pick and choose winners.  When we allow the markets to decide, the perps and the excess risk takers are punished.  All this central planning, going back many decades, has led us to an enormous mountian of debt which will now require even more debt as well as inflation to cure and diminish.  Of course, the rich elite class will survive quite well and the majority of Americans will suffer immensely.  This might allow a dictator, such as we have now, to take total control of our lives.  At some point, the slave class will revolt and the process of destroying the bums in power will be executed.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 13:03 | 2798725 Duke of Con Dao
Duke of Con Dao's picture

YouTube - Tower of Babel? You didn't build that!

'Some other Biblical Jew made that happpen!

..............................................................................................................................................................
YouTube - "You Didn't Build That Frankenstein!' sez President Obama

'Someone else re-animated that dead flesh.'

..............................................................................................................................................................
YouTube - 'Nazi Party? Adolf Hitler... You Didn't Build That!' sez President Obama 

'Some other Hitler made that happen.'

.........................................................................................................................................................
YouTube - 'Obi-Wan Kenobi... You Didn't Build!' sez President Obama 

Some other twisted Jedi knight made that happen!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 13:05 | 2798734 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bookmark this.

 

Without fear, there is no power. Without power, there is no revenue. Without revenue, there’s only poverty. When poverty strikes, so goes the fiat currency of that empire.

 

This clusterfuck business model has been going on for some 3,000+ years.  A few people want to be written in the history books. Only shame will follow them.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 13:37 | 2798830 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the machine is Ben with a bubble wand and endless soapwater

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 16:34 | 2799161 blindman
blindman's picture

Dana & Susan Robinson-Ways of the World-Lime Tree Gallery-Fort William-Lochaber-Scotland
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgZFinpOLtQ&feature=related
,
these two know how it is done.
.
Bob Dylan - Times They are a-Changin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCWdCKPtnYE
.
14 September 2012
Chris Hedges: The Absurdity of Empire with Laura Flanders
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 20:14 | 2799517 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

However much money this guy has made or whatever he knows he is still part of the boomer leadership that has managed to kill the global economy stone dead for the next two decades.

ABJECT FAILURE
ABJECT FAILURE
ABJECT FAILURE
..
..
..

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 22:25 | 2799740 Ckashan
Ckashan's picture

“In order to produce inflation it all comes down to a transaction and so money by the Central Bank producing money has no different effect than if credit was created. I mean it just doesn’t have a liability against it.  So I think that there is a mistake and tendency to believe that if thee central bank is producing money and that number grows by a large number that that means it is going to produce…you know you double it and we’ve more than doubled it. That that means you’re going to…’O’…you’ll have an explosive situation with inflation.  And that’s not correct because it’s spending and so how it’s how it passes through.  It’s just making up for credit. Um…so now. [taking a few seconds to pause Ray lowers his chin to scratch his head while breaking eye contact with the audience. Regaining his composure he precedes by moving his presentation into deleveraging on total debt].” 

That is an awfully arduous and coded way of saying that the central bank is paying the government to increase spending to make up for lack and destruction, of private credit expansion stemming from malinvestment and over borrowing in prior years.  All of what Ray says evades the responsibility of conscience. [Opting out of using the words morally apprehensible].  The point is that it is not okay that the Fed is producing money with no liability and Ray is incorrect.  Just because prices adjusted for inflation does not currently qualify for an “…explosive situation with inflation”. Doesn’t negate anything in regards to inflation’s constant, steady erosive effects or to the consequences of the Fed’s actions past, present, and future period.  The consequences are not worth mentioning because if one has to one would be better spending their time banging their head against a wall.

“In order to produce inflation it all comes down to a transaction and so money by the Central Bank producing money has no different effect than if credit was created. I mean it just doesn’t have a liability against it.”  ”… it’s spending and so how it’s how it passes through.  It’s just making up for credit.”

This form of money printing is nonsensical.  A throwback to the Greenbacks?  Hardly because the Fed is paying the government to spend money.  Wouldn’t it more efficient if the government just counterfeited the Fed’s FRNs in a sum equal to whatever it deemed necessary to make the machine right again?  Effectively negating the need of a US central bank.  Got a couple of more things. Ray’s paper refers to the existence of both 'money' and 'credit' and that those with it provide it to 'recipients'. I have to assume the word 'money' in the paper refers to Federal Reserve Notes or fiat or dollars or debt-based money. And 'credit'  refers to the credit lending capacity of a bank or the inverse of the Reserve Requirement times M0,MB,M1,M2,etc a Bank has on account in the Fractional Banking System ('Machine'), with a central bank as the last fraction of last resort.  Ray is correct that money is determined by people but in today’s case people didn’t elect the money that is circulated and didn’t chose to be forced to trade with it. Period.  That is the reason people quote gold as being used for transactions. That is why gold, liability free money or non-debt based money, is in the past.  Now that is something of the past or is it?   Only for most people is it today but for those receiving the benefit of that “…spending and so how it’s how it passes through” so for a few it is non-debt based money.

And one more thing. The economy is not like a machine because it is made of individuals & individuals don't behave like a machine.  The output of a machine, most of the time, is predictable. Hate to break the news but every individual at some point will make a choice and take an action that is irrational and unpredictable.  Furthermore, this irrationality and unpredictability will happen continually and frequently, millions of times a day. Cumulatively this means one thing the output of individuals and consequently the economy will be unpredictable in some cases and not behave like a machine even though it may be presented that way.

But besides this psychobabble by Ray. He is really going out of his way to support the increasingly collective insanity of most participants, in what we call society or the economy. Ray like all of us may just be defending what he has.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 02:55 | 2802432 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Ya, completely unpredictable:

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 00:08 | 2799900 Dactuck
Dactuck's picture

This is really informative.  Unfortunately, this is like Goldie Hawn, interviewing, Richard Nixon. Nonetheless, thanks Tyler.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 03:36 | 2800050 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

Dalio is a typical Keynesian.  This time it IS different.  And the reason is because our production jobs have left our shores.  There's far too little attention paid to that.  You can't continue his "beautiful deleveraging" forever because each time you print money to solve a cycical problem it siphons purchasing power upward, concentrates wealth, and creates inflation, which has a built-in limitation that eventually imbalances the economy to the point where the lower and middle classes no longer can afford to take loans and spend because all their money is spent on surviving due to the loss of purchasing power.  But this time is different because our production capacity has spread out across the world, so all our insane money printing isn't going to stimulate job creation in a sustainable way as it may have in the past when the problem was cycical and not structural.  At some point our non-Fed bond buyers will realize this and demand more interest for our bonds, which will consume our tax revenue to service our debt.  So the only buyer left will be the Fed, which leaves two scenarios: the Fed keeps printing money and creates hyperinflation; or interest rates rise out of control and we default.  The only possible way to avoid that is if our economy truly did start growing faster than our debt.  But it's not because we don't produce anything.  And our debt/GDP ratio, while rising, is not spiraling our of control yet due to insane government spending.  But that doesn't produce sustainable jobs and has the same limitation.  When the debt grows too large the bond vigilantes will emerge.  If the government slows down its spending then GDP will start to contract, but unlike in the past when the debt was small enough to handle a spike in the debt/GDP ratio, and the money fled from risk into bonds and provided the gov't with cheap money to spend its way out of it, this time our debt is so huge that there might be an intial rush to safety in bonds, but the bond buyers will eventually realize it is no longer a flight to safety.  That is the end point.  When the flight to safety is AWAY from bonds and the dollar, the gig is up.  All that money will chase gold and silver, which will most likely be the catalyst to impose a new monetary system. There is no solution to avoid the coming depression because it's the free market's way of clearing the misallocation of funds from artificially low interest rates over the last two decades and the devalued dollar over the last century. The politiicans can throw all the money at it they want but it won't work.  You can only fight the forces of the market for so long; eventually they overwhelm you.  

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 04:39 | 2800108 Observery
Observery's picture

I watched the video and got a bit confused about
what the gentlemen in the video said.

What do ZH-edgers think :

1) Is deleveraging really taking place?
2) Is debt-to-GDP is actually falling?

What am I missing??? 

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 09:43 | 2800282 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

remember, the way to make money is to take it off someone by explaining it to him in as complicated a way as possible that you are not taking it away from him.

also, use your common sense, if you have borrowed more than you can pay back, you better pray that no-one who you need to keep lending money finds out.

what this says (and the 9 brazillion page piece in the attachment explain) is that if you spend more on booze than you earn in income, and your job performance suffers because you are drunk...you are in trouble since you are going into debt and your job is at risk. 

if the country is behaving like this, and it is, then we are all in trouble and you need to hire bouncers to throw the drunks (politicians and their bar tenders, the Fed and the prop desks of banks) out of your bar. 

on the other hand, you could stop drinking and put the bar out of business and go and do something useful, like growing food or making making better windows. even the bar tenders can do this. 

the analogy could be extended into drug addiction (the Fed owning all the houses in the US) or, indeed, the encouragement of mass murder (think the Pentagon in the Middle Wast and North Africa), but i think you get the drift

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 12:53 | 2800678 ootofthehoos
ootofthehoos's picture

There is no deleveraging. We are still at 2007 levels of debt to GDP ratio, which was the peak. (Ignore the 2008/2009 pimple caused by the GDP spike down and then up).

Here is the graph: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=211350

 

I like the guy at 52:30 in that video challenging Dalio with a request for numbers.

 

[img]http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=3123[/img]

 

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 18:51 | 2801494 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

1) Yes.

2) No.

In theory: GDP can fall to zero OVERNIGHT.  Debt can't be erased as quickly.

Folks who speak of debt-to-GDP declines are nuts--they're assuming a stable (ie: not collapsing) GDP number.  But if you take a look at tax revenue, that is a patently incorrect assumption.  It's like calculating missile trajectories while assuming a flat Earth.

The thing is: the GDP decline is being masked through "creation" of a new dollar-shuffling industry in which the major institutions can whittle a penny here or there a few hundred million times a day.  That's our "new" source of GDP to offset the decline of any real economic activity.

As predicted by that loony LaRouche a good while back...the meaning of the linked images is really worth understanding.

Predicted: http://www.larouchepub.com/other/1999/bankers_math_2612/bankers_math_261...

Revisited in '09: http://larouchepac.com/files/media/Triple_Curve_LHL_1.jpg

Just goes to show: even a nutjob can be correct about stuff sometimes.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 16:46 | 2801226 djCandi
djCandi's picture

People with a hate on for Dalio, realize now that your anger at the world is clouding your thinking. It's OK to be angry - there's lot's to be angry about. But Dalio's article is, "How the Economic Machine Works", not "I Made and Control the Economic Machine." You're getting mad at the wrong guy.

He has used his mind and his experience, with his team, to understand financial realities of the day. Then he puts money in one end of the machine and gets more money coming out the other side because of his understanding of how it works. He didn't make the machine.

It's like you driving a car or taking the bus to work. You didn't make the car or the bus. But you know how to operate a car or figure out the bus schedule to get to work where you make money. Dalio didn't make the economic machine: he figured out better than most how it works and what schedule it runs on.

C'mon, ranting at everthing blindly is just dumb. Pick your targets better.

 

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 13:44 | 2804087 ootofthehoos
ootofthehoos's picture

"At 2 p.m. that day, the Fed chair met with Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater, the fourth-largest U.S. hedge fund, along with other hedge-fund magnates. At 4:30 p.m., Bernanke was on a conference call with his fellow FOMC members, undoubtedly to discuss a Fed change of heart".

That was Aug 2007.

http://www.creators.com/opinion/lawrence-kudlow/anatomy-of-a-fabulous-fe...

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 22:56 | 2805936 djCandi
djCandi's picture

Not convinced, oot. Good digging, but all you've got is a date and a time, zero content of the call or the calls to the other people that day. How many people do you email or talk to on the phone in a day - do they all agree with you? Maybe Ray was the lone dissenter compared to what the other guys wanted Bernanke to do. Without content, you've got nuthin'. You're just pulling the guilty-by-association card (well, not actually you because you didn't make the argument, you just put up a quote from Kudlow).

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!