Re-Election Hopes? "It's Obama's Economy, Stupid!"

Tyler Durden's picture


While it is seeming common knoweldge that the state of the economy has a significant bearing on the outcome of the presidential election in the US, Barclays notes that in the case of an incumbent running, economic performance appears to be most important. The three presidents who failed in a re-election bid in the post-war period (Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush, Sr. in 1992) did so against a backdrop of weak growth, high unemployment, and low consumer confidence. These same factors all pose significant headwinds to the current incumbent. To overcome them, history suggests that unemployment would need to keep trending down and consumer sentiment would need to strengthen prior to the vote in November.




As Barclays notes (providing a little more hope):

More broadly, the stage of the business cycle at election time could be as important as the state of the economy per se, particularly when it comes to the labor market. In particular, the course of the unemployment rate may be as influential as the level itself. How the labor market recovery plays out in the second half of the year may play a pivotal role in the upcoming election.

Source: Barclays

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Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:50 | 2565892 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:04 | 2565943 Michael
Michael's picture

Yeah, but a lot of people just want revenge and are not going to vote for the Fox news/MSM republican nominee selection.

I'm just voting for Obama to fuck over the GOP/MSM establishment.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:07 | 2565968 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

I think you meant "cater to the GOP/MSM establishment"

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:20 | 2566011 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Vote for Gary Johnson.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:29 | 2566032 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

The whole 100 year ponzi scam is unwinding world wide and it's Obamas fault.  Or something.


It doesn't matter who wins.  And while these charts make it look like R-Money is a shoe in, broken down by state and electoral college he's got long odds at winning. 


Gary Johnson is as good as anyone to vote for, so why not. 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 16:04 | 2566168 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

We will be fully engaged in WWIII by Nov. Obama will win. "False Flag" anyday now.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 16:40 | 2566312 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

obama saving QE3, twist for the last minute boost.


Like Romney is a better choice? Private Equity strap up debt and pay Paul with cash in victim company Romney?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 20:58 | 2566979 poor fella
poor fella's picture

I hope Mitt wins so we can put a fucking bullet into the head of Globalization, trickle-down, bank subsidies, HFT, and private equity...  Shrub had such a great start to bring the end of days, might as well let Mitt fiddle with the pieces for awhile. Obama is at fault for thinking this shit's worth saving too. Should have came out all Genghis Khan and never compromised. At least we could have tried something else.

The system is totally fucked - what happens when we kick the can down the road? We turn the fucking corner. It doesn't matter if we kick the can around the block going LEFT or RIGHT, we're going around the same fucking ghetto. Nothing is going to change. The people will fucking DIE on their couches quietly before going outside and making a stink (or better yet, uniting and kicking those motherfuckers out of CONgress).

Buy local - and grow cotton to make your own damn bandaids. Fuck J&J. And buy a banjo! Fuck APPLE.

God Bless the Fascist States of America

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:18 | 2565972 xcehn
xcehn's picture

LOL. You don't have the stomach to vote for Obama. I know I don't.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:59 | 2566157 kito
kito's picture

voting for obama will at least give us a quicker end to this long drawn out slogan.........a vote for obama is a vote for more long term terminal suffering filled with days of morphene drips.................VOTE FOR OBAMA, END IT NOW!!!!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 16:02 | 2566171 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

LOL.  Fuck it.


Give me liberty or give me death panels. 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:08 | 2565973 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

If it's not Michael's childish sentiment then it's another: people will vote for Obummer so they don't look racist.  Pathetic indeed, but whitey has been conditioned to believe he's bad.


" These same factors all pose significant headwinds to the current incumbent."...won't matter.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 18:34 | 2566673 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

In politics, few talents are as richly rewarded as the ability to convince parasites that they are victims. ... generosity is seen as an admission of guilt, and the reparations as inadequate compensation for injustices – leading to worsening behavior by the recipients.


~ Thomas Sowell 

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:38 | 2566074 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

His chances seem to shrink more and more everyday.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:46 | 2566009 PSEUDOLOGOI


please read: 
I have just mailed a thank you card (hand written) to:
Jackie R. Whiton
Big Apple Store
16 Wilton Rd.
Peterborough, NH 03458
and have thanked Jackie for taking a stand and doing the right thing. Hope she recieves it.
The above is NOT her home address. This is the address of the store where she used to work.
Maybe one of the employees or the store manager will give Jackie mail addressed to her.
I have also called the Headquartes (Big Apple store is owned/operated by C.N. Brown Company) at 207-743-9212 and left a VM for their PR/spokesperson informing them that I will not patronize any of their businesses as a result of what they did.
And finally, I have sent them a fax to 207-743-8357 basically restating the contents of my voicemail.
Remember what happened on the Internet after those kids ridiculed a bus driver?
Can zerohedge do the same for this lady who obviously shares the view of many zerohedgers when it comes to responsibility and doing the right thing???

And finally, fire up that EBT rap song on youtube!!!!



A campaign has been set up for her already:

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:51 | 2566120 sskid
sskid's picture

Remember what happened on the Internet after those kids ridiculed a bus driver?


She was a bus monitor, not a driver and the people that donated 500k are idiots.   She has to be the most incompetent bus monitor ever.   Boohoo



Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:55 | 2566142 PSEUDOLOGOI

were you one of the taunting kids or did your kids do the deed?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 17:24 | 2566482 sskid
sskid's picture

The taunting kids should have been kicked off the bus, let the little bullies walk home, or mommie can pick them up.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:41 | 2566090 max2205
max2205's picture

If Obummer loses. About 20 tv channels will go chpt 11

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:59 | 2566156 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Letter from Issa to Obama re: Fast and Furious.  Paraphrased, "Come on Barry, you think we're a bunch of muppets?  'Fess up bitch.  This was your OP."

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 16:16 | 2566226 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

It comes down to 5 states Missouri, Ohio, Fl, Missouri, and Colorado.  Rommney has to win at least 4 of those.  Every other state is already decided.

Barry could easily loose the popular vote and win the election.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:52 | 2565893 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Failure.  But bullish, I think.

Since Corzine is free, he can head up the SEC in the new term.  Since Falcone is now in jail, he can head up the Justice Dept.   S'all good!


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:53 | 2565895 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Read my lips. No new taxes.........until after the election. It is inevitable.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:53 | 2565901 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

"As Barclays notes (providing a little more hope)"

Hope of what?

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:09 | 2565976 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hope that prez0 doesn't campaign on a strong dollar, a strong military, and a strong social safety net

he'll take what he's got there and run like the wind with it, or my middle name isn't the

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:21 | 2566016 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

"$3000 for everybody... to buy, you know, thingamajigs... payable after I am re-elected."

- Barry Barak Hussein O-bomb-a-Soetero

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:42 | 2566094 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

congo will approve it but not $3K;  they will want to make speeches about austerity while doling out $1500 i think;  the checks will be in the mail just before the R convention and the D convention starts the next day or vice-versa who's on first?

this will make the campaign a feel-good state fair kinda thing with lotse pro-wrestling poses between the candidates while thePeople will lose all their remaining seats!  and their asses, too, BiCheZ! 


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:53 | 2565903 serog
serog's picture

Even if you are not a fan of President Obama, you need to realize that healthcare reform that is currently taking place,really is beneficial to all Americans, not just a chosen few, and actually provides some requirements of our insurance companies for the first time! Most people cannot even tell you why they may be against healthcare reform other than, it's going to cost me money! Not true, it provides a guarantee of coverage to many that would be considered uninsurable. Here's hoping!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:58 | 2565922 William113
William113's picture

Your not from here are you.

Is that you TRAV.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:02 | 2565938 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Wrong account, M$B.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:19 | 2565955 serog
serog's picture

Goes to show there are real people out there like M$B.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:06 | 2565964 William113
William113's picture

I was going to go with M$B but I thought it was a little late in the day for his suck hole to be running.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:05 | 2565953 Salt
Salt's picture

From a strict insurance perspective, there's a reason that which is not insurable is not insured. You're smoking hopium and applauding your higher insurance rate, due to the guarantee to the uninsurable, because people have built next to the river that routinely floods.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:05 | 2565960 Decay is Constant
Decay is Constant's picture

Doctor:  Sir, I see that your kidney function is getting worse.  There's not much we can do but put you on dialysis for the next 5 years.  You're too old for a renal transplant.

Patient:  But I'm only 55! 

Doctor:  There are plenty younger folks out there that could use that kidney.

Patient:  What happens after 5 years of dialysis? 

Doctor:  You turn 60 and government insurance stops paying.  It's too costly to the system.

Patient:  So where do I get dialysis?

Doctor:  Fill out long form 34756B-3.


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:16 | 2565998 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Unless there are extenuating circumstances, livestock that are physically or mentally defective will be culled.  They're useless eaters.

/s/ Mittens and his fellow puppet

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:07 | 2565969 JohnG
JohnG's picture



JFC, one reason:

My wife and I are 64 and 63 respectively.  Why the fuck should we be forced to pay for insurance that covers birth control????

I'm in damn good shape, haven't been to any doctor in well over 10 years, do I need insurance???

Fuck off shit for brains.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 17:06 | 2566423 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

"Unprotected fucking is a right protected under the Constitution.  I should know, I'm a Constitutional scholar.  FORWARD!"  - Barry


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:12 | 2565987 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

I thumbed you up simply because I find it hard to believe someone is that stupid to believe what you wrote.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:39 | 2566075 salvadordaly
salvadordaly's picture

Well here ya go genius, "Ask Veterans how well their health care is that is run by the Gubment. I don't have to I've seen it in action."  I can only hope this was a joke, because if you are truly that ignorant rid yourself of this country. Cuba comes to mind with their health care you apllaud so much. "I am not being mean either, I have not said what I would really like to tell you!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:45 | 2566105 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

Go to MA and try to get an appointment with a General Practioner.  Unless he/she was a high school friend (like mine) it is next to impossible. 

Yeah, health insurance is wonderful.  But, the way they have it set up the folks with the big med school debt are going to specialize.  Why would a smart doctor spend all of that time and all of that money to spend their day with smelly, unappreciative, poor people---and have their reimbursements cut.

If you think this is a good to someone in MA.  It sucks.  And getting rid of it is a good thing.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 08:39 | 2567878 jonan
jonan's picture

i'm pretty sure the force that sets limits on insurance companies are known as actuarial tables...a quantified form of risk...

ahhh fuck it, no use explaining this to for all actuarial tables be damned!!!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:53 | 2565904 surf0766
surf0766's picture

No no no. On that business show this morning they said it was all inherited from Bush. And it is still his fault .

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:54 | 2565906 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

Everything is bullsh...Um, bullish.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:55 | 2565911 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

It's the money printer stupid!

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:00 | 2565913 ATG
ATG's picture

Nice charts and all, but why is 0 ahead by 9 points on Intrade and what's the actual difference with MR?

Until Ron Paul principles rule, we are in a bear market rally that peaked at 1422.38 SPX on April Fool's Day:

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:21 | 2566013 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

It's self-selection bias. Young people who are dumb enough to gamble skew your numbers democrat.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:29 | 2566033 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 15:35 | 2566055 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Intrade is no longer an accurate barometer now that it is more well known. It's been too easy to manipulate.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:57 | 2565917 Liposuction
Liposuction's picture


Wed, 06/27/2012 - 14:58 | 2565919 Madcow
Madcow's picture

In difficult and hopeless situations the boldest plans are the safest. 
Titus Livy (59BC - 17AD) Roman historian 

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