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Real Time Greek Government Tracker; Goldman's Bearish Take
While clearly dramatic, the outcome of the French presidential election was very much anticipated and at this point the only real question is how many promises will Hollande reneg on before the week is over: if Berlusconi is any indication, all it will take is for OAT yields to spike by 20-30% and all shall be well for the status quo. Greece, on the other hand, where as we said the people have lost everything so are free to do anything, just did more or less that, and have shocked Europe with an outcome which as we warned could result in the lack of a pro-bailout coalition government, which means no IMF aid, which means "no bailout for the Greek people", which means no bailout for European banks under the guise of a Greek DIP loan. And with 63% of precincts reporting, ND + Pasok have 153 as of this moment which is enough for a majority although paradoxically the anti-bailout parties will have among them nearly 60% of the finaly vote which means they could form an anti-bailout coalition if they buried their diferences. Finally, there is still time, so for all those curious if the two Greek parties will be able to form an all important coalition government, can keep track of the vote count in real time at the link below.
Finally, while much of what happens next will be as we expected last night, here again is Goldman with their just released largely bearish piece on why futures are currently having an epileptic fit.
Greece Elections: Higher Risk for An Interruption of the Adjustment Program
According to the first official results, the election outcome in Greece creates significant uncertainty ahead for the country primarily and the broader spectrum of Euro-area assets. There is still a margin of error around the results and it is likely that they change throughout the night. But according to the official results at hand:
- It is unclear whether the first party New Democracy and (what appears to be the third party) PASOK occupy enough seats in the parliament to form a majority (jointly accounting for roughly 35.5% of the vote).
- Even if they do, they will do so with a marginal vote share and they may need more parties to join in, in order to form a broader coalition government.
- The "radical left" (SYRIZA), with its clear anti-austerity agenda (but not an anti Europe agenda), is the second party in terms of votes and becomes a key “power-broker” among the anti-austerity powers of the left and the right (radical left accounts for 16.5% of the vote roughly).
- Parties of the far right (Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn) appear to occupy a large portion of the next parliament jointly (counting for more than 15% of the vote).
Tomorrow, the president of the Hellenic Republic (president Papoulias) will ask from the leader of New Democracy (Samaras) to make enquiries across parties to form a coalition government. The leader of PASOK (Venizelos) has stated that narrow majority coalitions are not a preferred solution, therefore it is likely that this enquiry will need to involve other parties too. Failure to reach an agreement along those lines will force the president to ask from the radical left to explore coalitions (which would need to have an anti austerity agenda). If no agreement is reached then we will likely head for an election repeat soon.
The foggy political situation in Greece stands in stark contrast to the immediate decisions that need to be taken in the next two months. As we mentioned in our Friday note (European Views: A Preview of Greece Elections), for the next government, we believe:
- A decision will need to be made for the Greek international-law bond maturing on the 15th of May the owners of which have held out from the PSI process. The outstanding notional is not large (about EUR430mn) but the broader implications of a no-payment decision are unknown.
- Second, by June, budget cuts worth about 11.5bn EUR for the rest of the program period will need to be specified. There is little room left in the budget to promote such an adjustment without affecting public sector wages and pensions. Beyond the funds for PSI and for a partial recapitalization of the banking system, the rest of the funds from the second package remain undisbursed. Undisbursed funds for 7bn EUR worth of arrears (roughly speaking) and for the primary position of Greece will be important for the domestic economy.
- Third, pressure from international lenders will likely shift on product market reforms going forward. This implies a focus on privatizations, opening up closed professions, reducing barriers to entry for new enterprises, reducing assured profit margins for various sectors etc. This is a crucial part of the recovery process for Greece and stalling those would likely deepen the recession.
- Fourth and final, the recapitalization of the banking system in a format that makes it easy for banks to attract private capital in the future needs to move forward in a short time-span to safeguard financial stability.
In short, while incentives are still in place for mainline Greek political forces to avoid extreme solutions that would lead to an interruption in the Greek rescue package, the risk is that lack of coordination and the prevalence of populist agendas in the parliament could potentially lead to the less desired scenario. The latest budget data shows that Greece may be running a flat-ish primary budget position, which may reduce the consequences if such risk were to occur. That said, it becomes hard to assess the hit in confidence and the financial turbulence involved in such a scenario. In addition, the failure to pay the arrears will be an additional source of shock for public sector corporations. Finally, the results could further estrange Greece from the core of Europe.
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How fortunate they managed to sell all their greek exposure to the ECB, or Goldman might have had to take a hit.
New Democrats & Pasok currently stand to lose 44% of the popular vote since the previous election. That's some hardcore pissing off of voters right there!
Molon Labe, bitchez!
SYRIZA got 16.22% and 50 seats. New Democrats got 19.8% and 111 seats.
Is this a New Creek Democracy?
It appears that nothing has changed in Greece. I see no reasons to have election in Greece anymore. It is just useless!
The mainstream parties (ND and Pasok) rigged the system in their favor by giving the #1 party in terms of votes a 50 seat 'bonus'. Since they figured ND or Pasok would likely finish first in most elections, it was done to cement their 2 party oligarchy. Bit like donkeys and elephants rigging the electoral process in their favor in the ole USA.
does greek toast come with flaming cheese?
any sources? would appreciate more info on this.
Get over it, "Democracy" is just a modern marketing technique for elites to gain power and enslave people like 2000 years ago.
Why?
The Nazis and the communists could never be in the same coalition, therefore an alternative coalition is impossible.
What we are looking at is an unstable minority coalition that will fall apart sooner rather than later.
Vote for Pain or more Pain. Austerity means pain, being cut off from stimulus means more pain. No one votes for pain. So they vote for fringe parties. What will Germany do to restore order??
Germany was NEVER interested in saving Greece ... they were interested in saving their banks. Mission accomplished. Time to let Greece flap freely in the wind.
What we are looking at is an unstable minority coalition that will fall apart sooner rather than later.
Maybe. But I think they just haven't had a chance to focus their hatred. Give it a few days so they can pick a scapegoat. Who could it be? The Nazi's can't blame the Germans and the Commie's can't blame the French, the Ruskies or the Chinks. The Jews are already to blame so that won't get any traction. The Muslims are playing the victim card quite nicely and becoming a choice voting block. The Brits are pretty much out of it having their own issues with the EU. So who's left. Hold on! Who is that in the back of the room with his hand up? A volunteer? Please come forward out of the shadows and into the light. That's it. What's your name?
They call me Uncle Sam.
this may be rare instance of not doing opposite of goldman, but in reality they have QE3 tip-off so it's a double-negative headfake......SP takes a small correction of 10% and fuck you GS!
please wake me when SP hits 800......
Anit-austerity governments and it's implication for future money printing in the Eurozone.
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
Alf Fields, King World News + More!
S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
greece is one SMALL--very small shithole in the world....when they start hanging bankers from Goldman Saches when I will short the SP
Greece is quite beautiful, full of history and culture. Why don't you try visiting somehwere before you call it a shithole.
+1 for banker rope parties..
+1 for culture, beaches, babes and food.
Something borrowed, something blue
Ive been there. Much of Greece is a shithole. I was in Athens 8 years ago and in a 4 star hotel the electricity went out every half hour. 5x worse then India (and Ive been in RURAL India). And the muesems and ruins SUCK compared to Italy. Ios and Mykynos are just whorehouse islands for the most perverted Of Europeans. And the beaches cant hold a candle to Spain Turkey the US or any decent island.
Santorini was the only nice part. Germany should demand it as collateral.
My experience exactly. You can literally see all of Athens in one day.
There are very few attractive Greek women.
Maria Mennudos is the exception, not the norm.
I'm sure you could find some russian wive through internet , why go to greece? Lack of sex can affect your judgement.
Plus saying this about the electricity makes me wonder how much time you actually spent outside of your room.
We got enough haters, we don't need disappointed creeps too.
Shut the fuck up williamTheBastard.
What a retard!
Quelle Suprise.....
Vive Le Resistance!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuH4J-VzliU&feature=related
This is more important
This is going to be some Opera!
And every OECD country will be on the stage singing a different tune
111 + 42 = x
111+42= 153.
coalition govt remains.
no?
yes, that is so. But ND might want to have a better majority.
Diebold is in Greece too?
Yes, but 109 + 41 = 150, which cannot govern on its own.
150 with 90% of the vote counted.
break out the popcorn, this is gonna get interesting :D
"In short, while incentives are still in place for mainline Greek political forces to avoid extreme solutions that would lead to an interruption in the Greek rescue package..."
Puhleeze, drop the pretense...no one buys it anymore, I've fixed it for you:
"In short, while incentives are still in place for mainline Greek political forces to avoid extreme solutions that would lead to an interruption in the BANKSTER rescue package"
It comes across as if they really beleve there own lies, the sign of a truly gifted writer.
Are you telling me to short the EUR and go Long Gold? Weird, this strategy keeps working for me.
Look at the upside, Serbia is holding the flank....so far
and, Putin wondeirng why such a light touch:
"Police were too mild," Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the Dozhd online TV channel. "I would have wanted them to be tougher."
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20120506/173274022.html
“Dear Vlad, the Arab Spring is coming to a neighborhood near you,” McCain wrote after United Russia, which backs Putin for president in upcoming elections, suffered an unexpectedly low return in the polls after Sunday’s State Duma elections. Putin will stand for president in March next year.
http://themoscownews.com/international/20111206/189263561.html
The only real difference here is Samaras had to be forced at gunpoint to sign a commitment to continue the troika deal and prior to the gun, he was completely opposed to it.
He'll be in charge of whatever coalition he can form with PASOK, so maybe he'll renege even if he can form that coalition.
It really is not the critical thing from today. The critical thing from today is this explosion in just the past 6 weeks of anti austerity feeling across the continent. The entire continent wants to ignore mathematics.
No. They want to ignore Banksters and armchair economics experts that want them to go eat shit and die. I think they have the right idea. "Socialize your losses and bad management?. No thanks... How bout we socialize you?.. Motherfucker..."
Uhmmmm...... How is Greece going to pay all these parasites with out "Bankster" and IMF ECB money??
Dont get me wrong. I have an errection Im so happy the commies have taken over Greece and France. I want these parasites to get SO much of what they voted for that they choke on it and fall into the same Soviet hellhole that Germany spent the lat 10 years bailing East Germany out of. Just like I love watching all these Commrade O supporters choke on this bad economy he created.
But Im SHORT the market, as will Goldman be, and the capitalists will profit on this at the expense of the workers 401ks run by dumb, slow money managers.
So go ahead and bitch about banksters. And then whine when they refuse to give you money to run your deficits.
Btw isnt Greece trying to sell bonds on Wed? That will be hillarious to watch. Who buys bonds from commies. I hear Kirtchner has an oil company to sell you.
If hollande has any sense, he will renege on them all. Many are absolutely insane!
Something different now comes from out of the Shadows. May it feast mightily on the old and fat that have wallowed in the wealth taken by tax and tariff.
The great, old one...Cthulhu!
They gave it a shot and it didn't work. Time for the EU to fall. "Mr. ECB, tear up your promissary notes."
Quite interesting to see that the most populous parts of Greece Athens and Piraeus (the small districts in the middle of the map) are won by the Coalition of the Radical Left SYRIZA while the eurocratic ND and PASOK together only get between 20 and 25 percent.
Not really surprising though. Basically, in any nation, the most "traditional" demographics of a nation, will be more inclined to advocate "business as usual", while the more "volatile" demographics will be more inclined to take risks.
Popularily, i think this is called "conservative" and "progressive", but since both terms are associated with the so called left-wing and right-wing, and both have shit to do with "progressive" and "conservative"... let alone a progression as well as conservatism as a maxime making no logical sense anyways (what point is there to the speed at which you run, if you do not care about the direction and circumstances?).... uh where was i? Ah yes, bullshit terms.
What i find more interesting, is that even though there is plenty of attractivity from the "true left" as well as the "true right" (ideologically)... greeks apparently prefered the far-left over the far-right.... yet, if you look at the bullshit the golden dawn pulled immediatelly after the early results (in short, "DICK HEIL!"), it becomes a bit more clear... looks like just as in germany, the neonazi parties really only have "protest-vote" going for them, and are in every possible situation politically a joke... which historically actually makes them not so neonazi ironically... because you know, the NS actually had a clue about how to do malicious rethorics and populism.... as opposed to just kneejerk pre-election slogans.
152 as of now.
I predict final number 151.
That would really be something. Right on the number.
Hard to govern with such a narrow majority.
Any way you cut it, it's going to be a long, hot summer in Greece.
150 now, so they'll need to make a comeback to get there.
The banksters have already retreated out of Greece. Got to get them in the US on the front lines before they escape.
And so the grand consensus that pervaded Western economies begins to crumble
Samaras was room mates with Papandreou at Amherst College. They'd let Greece go, but all those lovely new found gas fields under the Aegean.....damn. Everyone as you were...
Just dropped from 153 to 152
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/7581:JP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_the_Radical_Left
One serves up large pizzas, the other large government
I could see the Democratic Left party playing ball with Pasok and ND to build a pro-bailout coalition. Democratic Left will want to move from the office above their espresso business to the center of power.
You might be right. Democratic Left currently has 10 MPs, of which 6 came from Pasok.
151 at 82.48% Nationwide count.
Do I hear 150 or is that it?
150 at 88.93%
Simplest place to follow along: http://ekathimerini.com/
One area to keep your eyes on is Dodekanisou - This can very easily change and will cost ND and PASOK their majority if it does
Yup, good spot. Only 400 or so votes separating the top two, with 68% reporting so far. Lots can happen.
f*ck you Wall Street. You had the buffeted bs equity run via a-holes of Europe boning their people. Well, the people are boning back, Sarkozy, that french midget is finsihed, Holland's gov collapse is a wake up call for Germany, now, Greece = f*cking total financial chaos throughout Europe/the world. The final curtain.
Anit-austerity governments and it's implication for future money printing in the Eurozone.
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
Alf Fields, King World News + More!
ruh roh 150
89%
C'mon Diebold Athens. Dial in those codes.
Greek-Mexican stand-off coming up.
It would be interesting in the least to see if ND could form a coalition "of the willing" and claim justification with less than 20% of the Greek people voting for them. Im not sure if there has ever been a coalition formed in recent history where the majority party had less than 20% of the overall vote.
Do I hear 149?
Still 150 and holding. Getting down to the wire at 93%.
I think at this point, the only way to lower their total further is if one of the other smaller parties manages to reach the 3% threshold, to siphon votes away from everyone else (currently over 19% of the votes are thrown out because they are for parties that don't meet the percentage requirement for seats in parliment) But both of the possible parties supported the bailout measures, so if anything that would only make it easier for ND+PASOK to form a coalition government.
EDIT: Well, never mind all that. Down to 149 with 97.74% votes counted!
greece- where it all began and where it will all end. the circle of life.
i wonder how the other piigs will respond.
latin america was telling the usa to stuff it while the secret service was stiffing hookers.
china wins.
meanwhile the useless ows americans think ghandi won because of his nonviolence movement and not because britain was broke. the rest are at the circus drooling over their vote for obamitt not knowing they are electing the person who will preside over the last stand of the western world.
while the greeks are the real teachers of how it should be done. france is learning fast but will the germans follow or will they become germans.
i am bailing on the bounce and going all in on gold and silver.
I call your bet and raise you a pack of riot dogs!
I thought it all began in Persia?
greece is the cradle of democracy.
To fall below 150 combined, the ND vote needs to drop below 19%, or the PASOK vote needs to fall below 13%. Doesn't seem likely with only about 7% of the votes left to count.
Oppositely, to regain the majority, either ND needs to get back to over 19.46%, or PASOK needs to get back over 13.62%.
Or, in the unlikely event one of the other smaller parties exceeds the 3% threshold, this would serve to siphon votes away from the ND+PASOK total as well.
With 96.82% of the vote, ND is down to just about 19% of the vote, so it's now more than possible that they will drop yet another seat.
ND drops a seat! ND+PASOK down to 149! At 97.74%...will it hold?
Ecologist Greens and LAOS now both over 2.9% at the 98.23% votes counted mark. If either makes it to 3%, they'll take seats away from everybody, but probably make it easier for ND+PASOK to form a coalition government.
PASOK at 13.22% has a ways to fall before they would drop another seat, but it's not out of the realm of possibility just yet. Golden Dawn up to 6.97%, so they might snag another seat before all is said and done.
The entire country of Greece is SHORT the EUR/USD and SHORT all global indices this week. Watch them procrastinate to boost their profits.
The entry of Greece in the Eurozone in this revealing video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nVMAJXwpfKg
149!
This is really the perfect storm for the anti-austerity forces. They have danced on the razor's edge to both deny ND+PASOK a majority, and keep the two smaller pro-austerity parties just below the 3% threshold to enter parliment to save the austerity coalition.
The other five parties are all strange bedfellows, but they could hold 100 more elections and never get all of these conditions to align so perfectly. If they could find some way to hold government together just long enough to kill the austerity deals, then the Great Reset may finally become a reality.
98.82% of the vote in, and ND and PASOK keep bleeding lower. Now there's no chance of a ND+PASOK majority, and even a 50/50 split is pretty unlikely.
S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.
http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/
By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU
Pocket economists aka Krugmans try to make it look complicated, but it's pretty simple really - everything is about increasing power grab of 0.01% over majority of population and resources. High stakes game that is coming to a final closure pretty soon.
I voted neoliberals because I want a small state and good governance. Still, I cannot hide my joy at the battering the main parties got. What worse could happen to us with Syriza that we are not going to get in small increments if we follow the same "cure". 2.000 Greeks have already taken their own lives. We can no longer be intimidated. We need to default and make a new begining. No more loans for bailing out their banks. They should recapitalise them themselves instead. We shall live with what means we have and do fine just as long as we default.
So now that we know that ND+PASOK=149 out of 300, so they couldn't even manage to put together a majority....who the fuck is actually in charge in Athens today???
The President and Prime Minister. Who remain in power until a new government is selected.
Actually, gauleiter Reichenbach, Merkel appointee is in charge. And his stooge reichskommissar Papademos of Goldman Sachs.