This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Real U-3 Unemployment Rate: 11.6%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Propaganda unemployment rate: 8.1%; Real unemployment rate: 11.6%. Reason for difference: organic growth of labor force which grows alongside the broader population. Don't be confused by cheap explanations on TV why the labor force should be declining (especially with ZIRP meaning pre-retirement workers have to stay in the labor force ever longer to supplant their meager fixed income): the widely accepted definition of the labor pool, that used by the CBO and all other government forecasting agencies, assumes a 90,000 growth in the labor force every month as it has to keep in line with the growth of the US population! The implication is simple: using a real labor force participation rate long-term average of 65.8%, the real unemployment rate in April was 11.6%, based on the 5.4 million additional workers that should be counted as part of the U-3 which then means that the real number of unemployed is not 12.5 million but 17.9 million, which in turn implies a 11.6% unemployment rate in the US. This also means that the spread between the propaganda, and the real number is now 3.5%: the most it has been since the early 1980s.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:07 | 2396740 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Why would our government lie to us?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:09 | 2396747 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

LOL..."our"  Good one.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:11 | 2396756 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Boy oh boy, what a shame none of this was known to anybody before.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:16 | 2396770 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

So,of the 90 or so workers still on the employment register, 10 of them have now lost their jobs.

Peachy, just fuckin peachy...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2396802 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

1981 was 18% home loans, today we have 3.8%

 

I knew this felt different. Wonder if we survive?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:51 | 2396892 Surly Bear
Surly Bear's picture

I'd like a job, but I cannot find a job. Don't fucking tell me it's getting better.... Oh, and I am serious, first time since 1989 I have not found something, anything.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:14 | 2396761 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

I just applied for a job at The Comedy Store and the guy started laughing.  WTF.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:21 | 2396800 sabra1
sabra1's picture

that's nothing! i called a suicide hotline, was promptly transferred to a call center in India!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 15:05 | 2396815 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Was it in Callcrudda?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:40 | 2397293 Arthor Bearing
Arthor Bearing's picture

"You want suicide? Thank you sir I would be happy to help you with that. Just a moment please while I try and remember how to pronounce the next line on my card. My computer screen tells me you have rainy weather today, allow me to comment on that so it seems as though you are not takling to somebody thousands of miles away. Hello sir? Hello? Sir?"

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:19 | 2396785 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

The good thing is that the American public is aware of these lies...uhh I think they are, no wait isn't a new season of American Idols Dancing starting?

Oh nevermind

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:26 | 2396820 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Why do Bears shit in the woods?

Because they have to.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:39 | 2397074 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Rubber Scrota says everything is okay. Stop your bitchin and serve me my coffee!!!

Man, I couldnt even type that without laughing my ass off . . .

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:07 | 2396729 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Last year the US hit 100 million living in poverty.

This year we hit 100 million unemployed.

What new magic do we hit next year?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:09 | 2396742 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

100 million classified as "potential domestic terrorists" needing re-education by PSYOP officers at their local FEMA camp.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:42 | 2397085 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture
Yes, The Re-Education Camp Manual Does Apply Domestically to U.S. Citizens

A shocking U.S. Army manual that describes how political activists in prison camps will be indoctrinated by specially assigned psychological operations officers contains numerous clear references to the fact that the policies do apply domestically to U.S. citizens.

Despite the fact that the manual is well over 300 pages long and would take hours to read properly, within minutes of posting our story yesterday a minority of commenters were claiming that the policies outlined in the document only pertained to foreign combat operations and did not apply domestically to U.S. citizens.

This is similar to the denial witnessed prior to the passage of the NDAA when some argued that the indefinite detention provisions did not apply to American citizens despite numerous legal analysts asserting they did and President Barack Obama himself acknowledging they did when he signed the bill.

Click here to read the full document entitled FM 3-39.40 Internment and Resettlement Operations.

http://www.infowars.com/yes-the-re-education-camp-manual-does-apply-domestically-to-u-s-citizens/

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:29 | 2397463 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

But that won't affect Holder's "people."

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:37 | 2396856 Saro
Saro's picture

100 million dead of starvation.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:27 | 2397458 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

24 million in extermination camps. That'll drop the unemployment rate!

Seig O! Seig O! Seig O!

Sun, 05/13/2012 - 12:57 | 2421385 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The unemployment the government states is a complete lye.

 

Charms and Beads

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:06 | 2396730 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Bernanke, where are you, the market is melting down......send out the QE3 rumors, you motherless COCKSUCKER.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:20 | 2396787 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Fuck that. My NFLX puts are roaring since yesterday morning. Let it ride, baby.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:07 | 2396732 Stackers
Stackers's picture

I read Zerohedge because they always have such pretty and colorful pictures in their artcls. Too bad you cant do pop-up books via the web.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:08 | 2396741 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

(spitting) Is that a Twisted Logic Pin on your Unemployment Chart?????

(Neidermeyer)

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:13 | 2396762 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All irrelevant except whether it means 'QE or no QE'.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:14 | 2396765 Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom's picture

But but they said things are getting better.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2396801 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Of course things are getting better. UE down to 8.1%. Don't you watch CNBC? Things are getting so much better that before long, we'll all be getting free money from the gubmint.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:15 | 2396767 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Funny.  The propaganda-reality spread is always widest during official recessions!  I wonder why...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:15 | 2396772 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Dual mandates are easier said than done. 

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:16 | 2396776 docj
docj's picture

Uh, unexpected?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:18 | 2396780 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Paper gold and silver rising while crude and stocks falling.  THAT'S unexpected.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:24 | 2396810 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Metals are sniffing out the QE trade.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:57 | 2396934 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Will the FED QE or just talk about it...  or talk about it and do it... or, do it and not talk about it? 

ZIRP: tapped out.  QE: tapped out, unless they are willing to acknowledge the utter failure of the status quo.

FED Communications (lies) are the only tool remaining in the kit.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:20 | 2396783 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

so reverse propaganda in april 2000? or was the truth just too inflationary?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:20 | 2396790 Seafarer57
Seafarer57's picture

U-6 stands at 14.5% - even based on the cooked numbers from BLS

 

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:25 | 2396818 Racer
Racer's picture

So the fake numbers are at least 43% off the real number!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:34 | 2396849 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Decoupled is the proper term.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:32 | 2396843 yogibear
yogibear's picture

A soft patch. Like many other softpatches in the heads of the Bureau of Lies and Scams.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:32 | 2396844 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

I guess I picked the wrong week to buy TBT.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:32 | 2396845 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Santelli is going to anger management classes as the rest of the cast gets free trips and bonuses.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:33 | 2396848 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'll have a garden salad to go along with my entree of cooked books... & please, a tall beer to wash it all down (& keep em coming)...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:37 | 2396857 Rainman
Rainman's picture

If I wuz Obama, I'd send an immediate directive to the BS deptartment that they will henceforth count all the pimps, hos and drug dealers as fully employed. And don't forget those panhandlers....that's hard work too.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:56 | 2396929 Seafarer57
Seafarer57's picture

Isn't there a pimp/ho/drug dealer czar?

Oh yeah, he also heads the Secret Service, so to speak.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:24 | 2397448 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

What about adding those who have to trudge to the mailbox or post office to get their "gimme dat" checks? It could involve up to a mile or more of walking! Then, it has to be cashed at a liquor store- more work. And, you have to sign it with your name or an "x", even more labor!

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:42 | 2396877 CABill
CABill's picture

But Obama said he going to save employment, and now he's killing employment?

 

Notice that this is the first time in history that real unemployment rate rose, as propaganda employment rate dropped.  Not good.  Can't keep spending and shrink the taxpayer base at the same time.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:34 | 2397486 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I can give you a real-world example of how Obama is killing jobs, through his Justice Dept/DEA, raiding all the medical pot shops in California.  People are employed there until the joint is raided and closed down.  These shops are launched by enterprenuers just like any other business, paying taxes, wages, etc.  Closing down legitimate businesses operating under state law is not a wise practice during a depression.

Sat, 05/05/2012 - 04:01 | 2399035 Element
Element's picture

Can, if you have a disposition to print to 'fix' shit.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:57 | 2396927 Mercury
Mercury's picture

So what metric or calculation is most responsible for booting/not counting (on paper) so many people out of the labor force?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 10:59 | 2396939 Seafarer57
Seafarer57's picture

In January, BLS shrank the number of "available jobs" in the labor pool, magically decreasing the denominator: number of unemployed/number availabe jobs=unemployment rate

Also u-6 reports the number of discouraged workers (given up looking) and underemployed (part time instead of full-time).

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:15 | 2396960 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Yeah, I know U6 but re: U3 - is the change/delta of "available jobs" what the birth/death (of jobs) adjustment factors in?

I though U3 = unemployed & looking / the officially defined "total labor force"  Thx.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:32 | 2397476 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Mercury, from what I'm reading, imagine it this way...the labor force is a big conveyor belt with all those drawing unemployment benefits standing along it in different places depending on how long they've drawn benefits (up to 99 weeks).  Keep in mind only the people who can draw unemployment benefits are counted; the millions who for any reason cannot are left out of the calculation (tens of millions).

When a person gets to the end of the conveyor belt and exhausts their benefits, they're dumped off the end of the belt and are no longer counted.

Since this mess has been in progress now for 4 years, can't you just visualize the millions of bodies dumped off at the end and no longer counted?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:15 | 2397000 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Tyler, I recently read a piece that said we need between 6 to 7% unemployment to keep inflation low. In a sound economic environnement.
So could it be that this high unemployment is causing inflation to be "moderate" even with all this printing?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 11:42 | 2397091 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Biggest surge of the year in new jobseekers happens once a year when college grads come out in May... of course they can't apply for unemployment but they certainly will be fighting for those restaurant jobs vs. the boomers...

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:06 | 2397179 LoneCapitalist
LoneCapitalist's picture

Can anyone tell me how they calculate the number of people "looking for work"?

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:32 | 2397264 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

They pull it out of their ass.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 12:30 | 2397259 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

ShadowStats has unemployment at over 22% - close to Spain. This number is much closer to the "not having a job" definition that most people.

The 8% number is an election year gimmick.

The key point is that if you don't have a job you, and the people you know don't care what the percenatge is.

For the new graduates, the number of classmates not being able to find a job will be close to 50%.

Since these people stay in touch with Twitter and FaceBook, it will be very difficult to convince them that 6% 7% 8% is a good number since it is not going to help them get a job. They will find out that their classmates are living at home, flipping burgers, or enrolling in more classes.

Reality will prevail over the BLS statistics for new graduates.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:27 | 2397456 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I think the government BLS hacks lying about the rate of unemployment has a big secondary effect, which is pure despair for the young uninformed.  Many are sincerely looking for employment, their government tells them the rate is "only" 8.1% and it's this bad?  That must mean either they really suck, or there is absolutely no hope, ever, of finding means to support themselves.  Not good for the psyche of the nation as a whole.

Fri, 05/04/2012 - 13:32 | 2397484 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

GUARDS NEEDED!

Report to your nearest FEMA Camp!

We need propane (gas) workers, criminals, and psychos

for Guard Duties.

Call 1-800-Exterminate

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!