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Real Unemployment Rate Hits 11.7% As Spread Between Reported And Propaganda Data Hits Record

Tyler Durden's picture


Today's reported unemployment rate: 8.1%. The reason: the labor "participation" dropped to a 31 year low 63.5% as reported earlier. Of course, this number is pure propaganda, and makes no sense for one simple reason: despite the economic collapse started in December 2007, the US civilian non-institutional population since then has grown by 186,000 people every month on average hitting an all time high of 243,566,000 in August. These people need a job, and the traditional shorthand is that at least 100,000 jobs have the be generated every month for the unemployment rate to merely stay flat, let along improve. So what does one get when one uses the long-term average of the past 30 or so years which happens to be 65.8%? One gets an unemployment number that is 45% higher than the reported 8.1%, or 11.7%. That is what the real unemployment rate is assuming the US labor participation rate was realistic and not manipulated by the BLS cronies and the Bank of Spain assisted Arima-X-13 seasonal adjustment models. It also means that, as the chart below shows, the spread between the real and propaganda data hit an all time record, which was to be expected two months ahead of America's banker muppet presidential election.


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Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:35 | 2771617 malikai
malikai's picture

So I guess it's QE3->on right now?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:39 | 2771632 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Man, there is just so much bullish news the past two days that I don’t know what to do with myself. I’m like Joe-joe the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet. But the pet is a possible QE3. Now like any other QE I pet it and I stroke it and I love it but the market keeps going up… You market, you notty little pet, your notty. And I take my notty little pet and I go rewawawa, breaahaha….. Ooooo, the markets bulls killed it, they killed my QE3 pet…..

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:44 | 2771654 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Yeah... What was that Dumb Old Saying ...

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics ...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:52 | 2771699 Badabing
Badabing's picture


Bullshit Labor Statistics

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:24 | 2771803 economics9698
economics9698's picture

11.7% is about right.  I am going to do my own calculation this weekend and I bet its right around 11.5%.  You need to compare a healthy economy, the federal government consuming 18.2% of the GDP compared to the obscene levels today, 24.3%.

Fiscal policy is easy;

1.  Spend 18% of the GDP or less.

2.  Balance the fucking budget.

That’s it.  Its that simple despite the bull shit these politicians spit out everyday.


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:31 | 2771841 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture


•Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 96k compared to estimates of 125k - 130k and a far cry from the average growth of 139k in 2012. Last year the average monthly gain was 153k.

•July's NFP number was revised lower from 163k to 141k.

•The greatest gains came from the food services and drinking sector. In other words, from waiting tables or bartending. These are some of the most brutal, lowest paying jobs extant.

•The labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%, the lowest read in over 30 years. When this number goes down so does the stated unemployment rate. To get to 8.1% unemployment, 368,000 Americans had to drop out of the labor force.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:34 | 2771859 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

The BLS U6 is ~15% and has it at over 20% (calculating in a way similar to the methodology to what was done in the 1930's). I think 11.8 is pretty low.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:53 | 2771942 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The 8.1% or 11.7% here is U-3.  The U-6 is 14.7%.  Two different calculations.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:56 | 2771947 john39
john39's picture

and how many in the "private sector" are in the arms business....  this is not a real part of the economy.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:11 | 2772239 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



"How many fingers, Winston?"

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:58 | 2771959 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    the federal government consuming 18.2% of the GDP compared to the obscene levels today, 24.3%.

GDP can fall far faster than the gummit can cut entitlements, especially since GDP is basically just a health-statistic for the financial industry.  This should be expected. 

And as tax revenue keeps dropping, the deficit should get far worse, even if the fiscal cliff results in the "automatic" austerity cutbacks.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 18:37 | 2773375 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

California sales tax down 30% YOY.

Gonna get worse, too.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:12 | 2773780 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Our "fearless" leaders can NEVER VOLUNTARILY cut spending, "The Creature From Jekyll Island" explains why.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:22 | 2771804 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

All is well.  The Great and Powerful OZ has spoken! 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:35 | 2772103 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

All is well.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:15 | 2773786 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

BDI is only 22 points above the low from last February (647).

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:44 | 2771907 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Bullshit Lying Statistics.

There, fixed it for yah.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:42 | 2771647 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

I doubt it. QE3 helps liquidity problems. Banks are insolvent, but ironically very liquid.

I think there will be some form of stimulus, but not QE3. And it will probably occur after the election.

I have a lot of PMs, so QE3 would be welcome, but I don't see it in the short term.

Obama is tied in the polls, but it's the electoral college that counts and he has a pretty big expected lead over romney. His best bet is to stay calm until after the election.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:45 | 2771659 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

This is going to end the same as the SF real estate market.  The higher the markets keep going, the harder and steeper the fall will be.  I hope all of you have taken copious notes and will communicate the FACTS and REASONS why things turn out the way they will.  No more pointing fingers in each direction and trying to deflect the blame.  We KNOW who is responsible and they should be held accountable.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:15 | 2771778 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



If people are not paying attention and that happens tough luck. Part of the reason the real estate market melted down was greed many people thought they could buy a house with nothing down, live in it and turn it for a profit . That worked until it didn't.  The others supposedly thought they could refinance it when the time came which was not logical to begin with given their credit history's and income. 


Markets Setting Themselves Up for Another ECB Letdown?


Mario Draghi promised a bazooka but produces a pea-shooter



Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:35 | 2771811 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Somewhat a generalization on the RE market, but that aside, you don't think greed is involved by the markets contnuously trying to front-run the Fed?  And this isn't Joe 6-pack that's driving this equation and benefiting from it along the way, its the fucking whores on Wall Street that keep getting more Monopoly money from the Fed to play with.  Ben always days, "Life is like a box of bubbles."

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:43 | 2771897 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Definitely I think it's greed that is the point I was trying to convey by using the real estate analogy. For a few years the average Joe could buy a home flip it and make some money.  When you think about it the real estate market was like a Ponzi those who got in first doing that made out those who came late to the game lost out. Seriously anyone with common sense should have seen the bubble for what it was since income was not keeping pace with housing costs especially given the types of loans. The other's didn't have any skin in the game perhaps they were just ignorant but it was one or the other stupid or greedy. It wasn't the first time housing fell in recent memory. If those in market now lose and as you say they aren't regular Joes well tough luck. Even if it is some regular Joe's tough luck the market is a gamble the house always wins.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:45 | 2771910 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Realistically, if WS loses its ass in this process, all they will do is line up for a bail out that taxpayers will get stuck paying for.  We've already seen this charade before and what has changed since then?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:10 | 2772008 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Nothing has changed get to used to it. People talk big about revolution but let's face it until the bottom really drops out here in the U.S. and I mean really drops like like a complete collapse where they can't hand out food stamps and other benefits it will be business as usual.  We still have some middle class they have to finish wiping out. That will still take a while they can play this game longer then people think. When that is accomplished the only thing you can do is be prepared.

REPORT: Geithner Dumping TARP Bank Shares At Below Market Prices To Make Obama More Appealing To Voters

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:26 | 2772071 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

If you go back and look at the REAL history of the housing bubble,

you will find it had more to do with the banks greed.THEY pressured valuers into

inflating prices,they sold mortgages upto 42 seperate times.THEY collected on CDS

on ALL those fraudulent sales,and THEY are cramming those bad loans into

REMIC.s now to cover their multiple frauds.

In terms of greed,the homeowners are relatively inocent in comparison.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:12 | 2772244 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

True, but that was because the federal regulation mandated that they provide loans to low income and minorities so as to "not discriminate" against those groups.  All of this was fueled by sub-market interest rate policy enacted by the Fed, causing misallocation of capital and eliminating risk management by lenders and insurers.  So, there's LOTS of blame to go around.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:44 | 2772405 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



Plenty of greed to go around no doubt about that we could throw in the ratings agencies also but those banks didn't force those people to take those loans. I am not sticking up for the banks just injecting a dose of reality.  The greed was not when they gave the loans then they were just doing what banks do in a Capitalist system what wasn't Capitalist was forcing them to give out loans to unqualified borrowers. However contrary to the conservative view point even that wasn't the primary cause since it was done world wide and they were not forced in other countries.  The greed by the banks and the ratings agencies were in truth when they sold the garbage loans as AAA and infested otherwise innocent investors including mom and pop's retirement accounts. 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 14:55 | 2772695 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Don't be so bitter. Why not sponsor an executive who is down on his luck:

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:36 | 2771620 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Go long propoganda bitches!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:37 | 2771623 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Spread 'em bitchez!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:38 | 2771625 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ignore that man behind the curtain. I am the mighty OZ. If I say unemployment is 8.1% it IS 8.1%

(Ben practicing his profession as a child)

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:41 | 2771640 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

(posted on another thread already, but there are posts here from some that I want to reach)...

Ladies and Gentlemen:

I have posted on here for months. My anger has showed through on numerous posts.

I know I am among many fellow traders here, and see others like me - who are as angry - feel cheated - robbed - of being a trader. I can bellow my angst - use foul language - rage against the machine that is the markets these days....on here, and elsewhere.....but what good does it do? reality.

These numbers - and the market action of these past months, have led me to become totally disenfranchised from the ability to see things clearly - as a trader of others people's money - to make good decisions - and frankly, I don't know what to do about it.

Being that we see all the honest data - and much of it on this site, I feel we have jaundiced ourselves; I sure have.

On one hand, I cannot join this hopium rally based on false numbers. I look like a fool as a result - performance wise.

On the other, not doing so is cheating my clients out of performance. Clients I am responsible for. Clients who depend on me to make right decisions - most of the time. The key word being "most".....I hardly have done that this year....

I honestly can say that I am not sure what to do about it. I know I am not alone - but "misery loves company" means nothing as well.

I value ZH for providing the truth. For giving the un-varnished reports and data that they do.

However, KNOWING the REAL truth, and exacerbating it from reading it here daily, has effected me.

Therefore, beginning with this post on here, I'll cut down on my comments herein, and not visit the site as much as I have been; certainly not to rage does no good.

I wish all the professionals and fellow traders that come here God Speed in their endeavor to persevere in these extremely troubled times....

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:46 | 2771666 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I can relate to these feelings. I think a lot of us can. But is this person saying they will cut back on the truth so they can make better bets in the rigged casino???

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:53 | 2771696 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:01 | 2771737 drink or die
drink or die's picture

I think he wants to be plugged back into the Matrix...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:27 | 2772075 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

I see what you gleaned from what I wrote; and if I were reading that from another, I would make that snap judgement Vincent.

As Cog said, there is way to know the truth and trade the lie.

Never done that before - but during this time period, I better adjust - fast.

With my luck lately, I adjust - then the markets will come to reality.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 15:55 | 2772956 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

You're already back and commenting??? That didn't last long.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:51 | 2771689 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I know the feeling you describe and I understand the sentiment. At times I suffer with you as I am also a professional.

But in essence what you are saying is that ignorance is bliss.......or at least less stressful. There is a way to know the truth, but still trade the lie. It requires keeping your feet on two separate ice flows that often move in different directions, a difficult task under the best of conditions, but doable if you try.

Above all else it requires that we cleanse ourselves of our righteous indignation and outright anger. As long as we personalize and internalize the lies, deceit and corruption propagated by the Ponzi we are ineffective at anything other than being angry.

Good luck!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:12 | 2771774 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

"There is a way to know the truth, but still trade the lie. It requires keeping your feet on two separate ice flows that often move in different directions, a difficult task under the best of conditions, but doable if you try."

Thanks Cog; I needed that. Well put. I have out of step with the markets this year (risk on, when risk was off, and vice versa, numerous times). That just wasn't so in years past. This constant battering has effected me - no doubt.

To do what you say and suggest - now - after this latest ....whatever you call this...."rally" - and to adopt that duality - is going to be tough (and with luck I am having, the markets will come to their senses and begin to act "normally" - was my first thought when reading your post.

TGIF...and also that I have overcome trading losses before. But, to do so under this mountain of total hogwash was not that reason. Traders accept losses as a fact of the profession. But to accept them under this is doubly painful.

Again, I appreciate the thoughts....

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:57 | 2771719 J 457
J 457's picture

Bettle, I'm not a money manager but share your sentiment.  There is such a disconnect from reality in this market its clear every day the level of outright manipulaiton.

Using yesterday as another example, on nothing more than a few words, the market cap of the global markets increase in "value" by billions of dollars.

And today we have what should be viewed as dire news and instead the markets are up because more QE is expected.

I yearn for the day when the average person wakes up to the fact that this debt fueled "recovery" is nothing more than the result of 0% rates and 7 trillion of debt and realizes they will be negatively impacted for years to come.  Maybe then we'll see some real action from the people to call their elected officials and demand some real change.  China announcing stimulus this morning makes me sick.  This is what the US needs to be doing instead they sit idle talking of more hope. And to think the Chinese will have half thier infrastructre plan paid for by T-Bill debt paid by the US.  I guess at least that money/payment will be created from nothing... 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:08 | 2771764 hapless
hapless's picture

Fuck your clients.  They were stupid to hire you anyway.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:47 | 2772151 gtb
gtb's picture

I don't care who you are...that's funny.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 15:12 | 2772770 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

From the movie "Animal House" ...."you fucked trusted us".

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:10 | 2771770 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

There is no spoon

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:51 | 2771782 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

What good is the truth if no one believes it?

Well, eventually, the truth has a way of kicking you in the balls, knocking you down, curb stomping your teeth out and pissing all over your bruised, unconscious body if you dont see it coming.

My professional advice is to do your job and make other people money in the rigged system best you can, but personally, I would be preparing for a collapse.  Do your job and plan for survival.  That's what I do.  Will stock piles of necessities hurt me if I never need them?  Nope.  Will not having stock piles of necessities hurt me when I need them?  fuck yes.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:15 | 2772032 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

OR.... ZH is just an arm of the GS propaganda machine targetted at the above average IQ. Why shouldn't smart people get fleeced as well? Why would GS leave money on the table for smart people?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:21 | 2773797 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Put around 20% of yer client's FRNs into PHYSICAL Au/Ag/Pt/Pd, AND play the Fed's trading game until The Great Implosion™ -- at least yer clients will have 20% of hard assets afterwards.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:42 | 2772129 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

unemployment is 8.1%

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:37 | 2771626 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hope & Change Fresh Style Homies!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:37 | 2771627 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I usually don't say anything but that reads like it was written by moroney:

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:42 | 2771644 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"The years hadn't softened Moronie. He continued to murder the English language, and anyone who got in his way..."

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:39 | 2771631 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture



has grown by 186,000 people every month …..


Get ready for a big “thinning of the herd” soon; it really is the only answer and the masters know it.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:40 | 2771636 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

War what is it good for.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:45 | 2771662 grunk
grunk's picture

QE3 is what they'll try first.

If that doesn't work, they'll try WW3.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:56 | 2771698 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Every significant world event in the last 150-200 (probably longer) years has had a hyperinflationary lead-up and a hyper-deflationary follow-on.


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:44 | 2771656 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

cant wait for that monthly fudged statistic to come out



we have eliminated x number of participants from the labor force this month

but which way will the lie go?

or is it like the reported combat deaths overseas, where if you die in the field you get counted ,but if you die in a hospital in germany you arent a combat casualty

77k+ KIA as of two years ago, afghan and iraq combined

whats the published number, under 5k?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:50 | 2771681 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

i just figured out how they will do it......the red pill will be poisoned

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:23 | 2773806 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

An unpoisoned blue pill leads to the same results...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:02 | 2771736 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

Taintboil says “thinning of the herd” [is coming]


Shepherd boy cried Bird flu/Wolf!

Shepherd boy cried H1N1/Wolf!

Shepherd boy cried "Something Real"/Wolf!

We are being conditioned to under respond. Gen X and Y don't need to worry about supporting Baby Boomers, we'll get our just desserts!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:39 | 2771633 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture


like a point spread in footballl....too bad there is no way to wager on this

the most accurate msm news you can get these days is the weather

which is notoriously inaccurate but at least the weatherman doesnt have an agenda to outright lie

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:52 | 2771697 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Of course the weatherman has an agenda to outright lie.  I'm sure producers have taken them to task over rainy forecasts that don't actually "precipitate" going into summer holiday weekends.  Notice how all forecasts across multiple networks are very similar.  It's a de facto union.

If the denominator of all transactions is distorted, as in the dollar, than the information communicated by those transactions is likewise distorted.  All information in our fiat system thus has some quantity of lie. 

This is how deep the problem goes.

A weatherman is paid to say something.  That's a seed.  However the vine is rampant.  A weatherman is now paid to say something to influence action.  How many holiday weekend economy-pumping plans in summer get cancelled with a rainy forecast?  Tourism dollars are cream.  You pay for own time spent being you, there.  You pay a lot of money for spending time, there, in the going there, and eating there, and buying mementos there, and tickets to that thing there. 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:39 | 2771634 grunk
grunk's picture

We're pumping out to many able-bodied people.

Gonna need a war. A big one.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:17 | 2771788 hapless
hapless's picture

STDs all around, BITCHEZ.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:25 | 2771819 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture



That would only be partially effective maybe they'll do it this way ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Ebola Virus: The Global Elite’s Bio-Weapon Scheme for 90 Percent Depopulation

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:33 | 2771853 hapless
hapless's picture

"...And avoid promiscuity because these sicknesses can also go through sex."

No more boffing that brunette at the end of the bar with the bloody nose.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:41 | 2771641 Jason T
Jason T's picture

the whole entire labor market wants to drop off... the tide is going out andt there is no power great enough to stop it.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:41 | 2771642 Carpathia
Carpathia's picture

The "unemployment" rate and other government statistics, CPI for example, are political fictions. Follow IRS withholding collections and the MIT million price survey. They are actual data points. We're in the early rounds of an inflationary depression.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:02 | 2771739 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The "unemployment" rate and other government statistics, CPI for example, are political fictions.

Right, and really, the people who live day-to-day life know this.  That's why I hate economists and professors who tell me that it is otherwise.......again, it the constant IGNORING of issues, the constant DENYING of the REALITY of DECLINING life that TPTB try to shove down our throats.

Intellectuals can do better.  But they aren't paid to.  And that's the problem.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:43 | 2771651 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

Does anyone believe the numbers that the gov't puts out?

Why do the trading computers?

I'm thinking there's a lot of "paper money" on Wall Street that is going to evaporate pretty quickly.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:43 | 2771653 allocater
allocater's picture

The people not in the labor participation probably live from capital gains, so they don't need jobs.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:54 | 2771703 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Well, that would explian the record number of food stamps.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:44 | 2771655 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

I am so excited I am going to have to go get another white sock to contain my "enthusiasm."

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:45 | 2771663 Cheeky Bitch
Cheeky Bitch's picture

I see unemployed people...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:55 | 2771707 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Unemployed People... "HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa"


Ann Coulter (Twat Waffle)

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:48 | 2771673 moskov
moskov's picture

Remember a line from Family Guy: you are a big fat phoney

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:48 | 2771676 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Should we expect as the time interval for more printing shortens from months to weeks to days, that at some point stocks will only manage to be flat while commodities go parabolic?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:50 | 2771680 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

The politicians spread more than their numbers

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:50 | 2771684 dogfish
dogfish's picture

This new math seems to have a lot of potential to make everything seem good.No inflation no unemployment no losses.Its all good.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:51 | 2771686 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

OK, so they have proven that they know how to work the "goalseek" function and most likely right before election they will plug 7.9% into the result to get Obummer under the magic 8%.

Obviously this is counter intuitive since granny has had to take a job at McDonadls and grandpa is a WallMart greeter just so they can make ends meet... and let's not consider at all the greater than 50% unemployment in the inner cities (why should they work?) and the unemployed coming out of college.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:52 | 2771693 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Time to start handing out shovels and hammers. There are ditches that need to be dug and filled up, and windows that need to be broken.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:56 | 2771712 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

It is interesting that no matter what system you use the unemployment number is higher than the official government tallies. If you do it like the 1920's for comparision or use the U6 or participation, etc., the government number is always the lowest. People drop out because they often give up. Revive a good market and they may rejoin the labor pool.

I think the bigger number to add is the number of underemployed and those working but at significantly reduced wages. I actually think it is a bigger number and somewhat more disasterous.

This is the fruit of the central planned, centrally banked, centrally controlled State. The first one to break with it will win.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:01 | 2771718 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is "reeaal"


[Paste} :>

...assuming the US labor participation rate was realistic and not manipulated by the BLS cronies and the Bank of Spain assisted Arima-X-13 seasonal adjustment models.

<yawn>  sound like a typical tyler "definition" of REAL tho!

don't forget the "election angle" or ya won't get paid by mittens tyler!  no propaganda, no check, BiCh!  or didya mean it is an election between two bankster muppets, one of whom is a neo-con, the other a prezident, which would be much mure truthful, imo

propwash pays!  any charts tyler?

<yawn>  boooo-riiing!  but at least the world is not ending in this one;  wait till the next one?


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:33 | 2771852 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

May be time to take that RDA dose of Haldol:

"the spread between the real and propaganda data hit an all time record, which was to be expected two months ahead of America's banker muppet presidential election."

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:56 | 2771938 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i don't take the stuff;  projecting again?

if you are implying that both candidates are bankster muppets, i would agree

but you use the singular; i assume you understand what that means :> one bankster muppet

prez0 is manipulating labor data so he won't look bad?  or quite so bad?  ok  sounds reasonable to slewie, tyler

but your idea of "real" is simply somebody else's data which you also seem to say may itself be a bit dubious

can you give me a link to the republicunt platform plank that is against central bankstering or bailing our crony capitalists any further? 

if you are saying they are both bankster muppets i would agree;  but then mittens wouldn't sign yer checks, would he?

are you implying BOTH candidates are "bankster muppets"?

yes or no?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:00 | 2771966 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

but you use the singular; i assume you understand what that means :> one bankster muppet


Is there a 2nd Presidential election that you know about? 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:06 | 2771999 fuu
fuu's picture


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:13 | 2772021 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

shoot everybody, fuu!  stat!  L0L!!!

doya think tyler is saying mittens is bankster muppet too?  where has he run off to now?

oh tyler!  you little neoCon-front anti-american asswipe!  where aaaare you?

is mittens a bankster muppet?  yes or no?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:19 | 2772046 fuu
fuu's picture

I read it as the whole election was a bankster muppet theater but wtf do I know?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:35 | 2772101 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

it does "seem" to say that, but wtf would anybody know from another hit-piece w/ the "real" employment data?

tyler, after calling me out (after calling him out) seems to have gone behind lizzy's skirts.  again. 

can you imagine what it would cost him if if he answered truthfully?

can't wait to see what he comes up with next tho!

what a fuking pussy he is!

where in the world is tylerDurden when he gets called out for a big yes or no?

oh tyler!  where aaaare you?

yes or no, republicunt neoCon toy-boy?  bankster puppetmasters got yer tongue, shithead?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:32 | 2772345 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the reason i'm being so anal about this fuu (as if i needed a reason to speak my mind clearly) is this :>  i don't recall too much negative press here about the R candidate

as a matter of fact, i don't recall any at all

just some diatribe from paul's guys that they got screwed or something, b/c their votes counted for absolutely ZER0 in tampa

but i don't think tyler was commenting on mittens there, just trying to lead another "ain't it awful" parade among the politically naive

which is why i won't let this "little ambiguity" slide.  of course

and it is also why tyler has gotten his little toy-boy ass embossed with slewie's boot-print for another day

ergo, i think you may be mistaken, old sport

can you show me anything tyler has written which says or shows anything negative about mittens whatsoever?

i honestly haven't seen it and i'm here for at least an hour/day (average, according to EU data which itself may be dubious)

this, of course is why he won't answer, too

so that would be why i think you better re-think how you "read"

now he may clarify this for us soon, elsewhere;  but it is pretty clear to me already that if he says :> yes!  mittens IS another bankster muppet, he would not get paid for his partisan propaganda efforts here

and now he probably won't dare pop his frightened little head below the line for i'm around for a while, cause slewie might jump directly in his stinkin shit w/ both feet, immediately.  again

can you believe his handlers made him play the Hal card?  on me?  L0L!!!

if this helps, great!  [i assume you know how to sharpen a pencil and do the dot thingy] 

when do ya thing he will say mittens is a bankster muppet?  after the election on  "ain't it awful" string101010?

at this point it would be easier for me to make a case that tyler is a mossad agent  (yes i did see the thingy about the DEMOCRATIC plank about "jerusalem" btw) than a fair-minded publisher

look at wolfR's library for his sunday night-hit piece :>  bilary going to china and not "increasing trade like 3 planeloads of germans & angela"

everyone on the string (before i got there) thought it was a "reasonable" anaysis!  L0L!!! check it out!  this is the zH "editorial slant" @ 10-30X/day

so i need to medicate?  well shit!  i think i shall!  see ya!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:41 | 2772389 A POOR EATIN STEAK

i cant tell what any of your posts are about but please never stop posting

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:46 | 2772404 fuu
fuu's picture

Well there is no Mitt, Romney, Mitt Romney, or Paul Ryan in the glossary. There are Ron Paul, Barack Obama, Obama, Joe Bidden, and Obama Administration entires.

Oddly enough there is no Gold or Silver entry either. (Yes, yes there is Gold Spot, Gold Bugs, and Goldbugs)

I would be happy to spend some time over the weekend going through the repository looking for negative Mittens articles but I have a feeling it will only show up in the comments section.

Top 100 entries through June I think:


Sat, 09/08/2012 - 14:46 | 2774936 fuu
fuu's picture

I went through everything from January 1, 2012 through April 2012 from this set of links:

If you have a better search let me know.

This is what I found:

As for Mitt, "A multimillionaire who says his experience as head of private-equity firm Bain Capital would help him spur America's economy as president, Romney might face a bigger challenge in the next primary in South Carolina on Jan. 21, where the economy is weaker and conservatives make up a larger slice of the electorate." Because apparently people in New Hampshire are big fans of 25% IRRs predicated by 5x Debt/EBITDA LBOs. Or something.

Lately, Bain founder and GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney has found himself in a spirited defense of the private equity industry, doing all he can to spin decades of data which confirm, without failure, that PE Leveraged Buy Outs are nothing but "efficiency maximizing" transactions whose only goal is the "maximization" of EBITDA in the pursuit of dividend recap deals, IPOs or outright sales, while loading up the company with untenable amounts of leverage.

Periodically refreshed without commentary.

A few days ago we presented a roster of the top contributors to Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign as reported by OpenSecrets. Today we have done the same for two other candidates, representing two previous election cycles: 2008 and 2004. The first table shows Romney's key contributors to date. The other two are the blacklined candidates. We are confident everyone can guess who they are, but just in case they are presented unredacted below the chart. It is ironic that nothing really changes at the end of the day in terms of whose bidding is ultimately performed by the president, whoever it may be. We have highlighted those Romney donors who are identical to previous campaign cycles

First Buffet, now Mitt Romney.

While the news that Mitt Romney has joined Warren Buffet in the "my secretary makes more than me" 15% tax club has come and gone, even as America appears largely confused or dismissive that Romney, at least on paper appears to be precisely the puppet that Wall Street wants put in charge, we are not so sure how it will react to discovering that in addition to all of the above, Romney also holds a substantial of his assets deep offshore, in the much maligned recently Cayman Islands.

In the aftermath of yesterday's SNAFU in which the GOP presidential candidate made it clear just why "he is not concerned about poor people", Andy Borowitz has intercepted the follow up explanation of what Romney really wanted to say...


From 1/19/12 with the Cayman Island post through April there wasn't anything beyond commentary of primary/caucus results. I didn't get all google-fu on it though, if someone else wants to do a better job post it up.


I'm going go rake leaves now.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:08 | 2772006 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

2 people to a fight cunt-face

let tyler answer: 

is he saying just prez0?

or is he saying mittens is also a bankster muppet in which case yer cunt-faced mother won't get paid for suking his dick this week

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:40 | 2772382 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


well, i think they are BOTH bankster muppets, so junk awaaaay republicunt robot trolls and mindless lickers of tyler's butt-plug!

yes or no!  jeeeez!  i think all you wunnnerful smart and awakened ones might be ashamed of a "leader" who won't answer a yes or no question

slewie is not interested in what some non-tyler THINKS tyler means, ok?

i want tyler to tell us what he means, is all

and, he doesn't seem to want to right now;  but it's only been 1.5 hours now, m/l

of course

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 18:57 | 2773430 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Mickey Mouse + Skull 'n' Crossbones = Disney on Ice


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 23:50 | 2773898 Maghreb
Maghreb's picture

Fuck it man, if i was Tyler I'd take the money to go easy on Mittens and hard on the O. Its not an issue. There are articles here about stockpiling rifles and canned food. No one bases their vote on Zero Hedge any more than they do on Prison Planet or fucking Jeff Rense.

Only issue i'd have is if the numbers in all the doom porn graphs were being fudged.

Tyler let paid trolls run amok possibly instigating trouble like those god damn zionists on Aljazeera.

Still I'd like to see Tyler come out with some real vicious shit on Romney as well now. Like when his sorry ass killed the wife of the head of the Mormon Church in France. Or when he got into a fight with that faggot from LMFAO on a plane. Some dirt on Bain capital would be nice as well.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:02 | 2771720 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

But 210K?

And yet under 100K again and revised lower last month and yet a drop in the rate.

Nothing but magic and clearly obvious where they are headed with this.

If Romney wins his folks are going to get in there and say WTF has been going on here?

Cooked books always show up eventually.

The zero and negative prints are coming.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:58 | 2771723 paulbain
paulbain's picture


Tyler Durden wrote:

Real Unemployment Rate Hits 11.7% As Spread Between Reported And Propaganda Data Hits Record

Tyler, with all due respect, ShadowStats (SS) claims that this figure is utterly incorrect. SS claims that the unemployment rate (UR) has been at least 22% for many months. I understand that not everyone thinks that SS is reliable, but, as someone who has been unemployed for four years, I am fairly certain that SS is closer to the truth than any other source of information.

Folks, the UR is at least 22%. Don't believe me? Then talk to someone who has been unemployed for at least two years. He (or she) can probably tell you the same. There are no jobs. None. Get over it.

-- Paul D. Bain




Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:08 | 2771763 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

check this asswipe out VERY carefully before you play with him

he could be a very dangerous troll if you "play his game"

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:21 | 2772055 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

you need to stop smoking crack methinks.


Drugs 'r bad, mmmk?

Sat, 09/08/2012 - 02:42 | 2774044 EconoIdiot
EconoIdiot's picture

Simple...Buy a tent!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:02 | 2771742 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Obamney and Riden said they will produce 4.5 million jobs in first term. 4.5 million/48 months= 93,750 per month.


We are fucked

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:14 | 2771779 Overfed
Overfed's picture

That's a whole lot of Wal-Marts and McDonalds!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:43 | 2771902 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

The sad fact is that government creates NO jobs except for when they expand from within.  After recent experiences with the court systems, I conclude that twice as many workers are needed to do half the work.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:03 | 2771748 larz
larz's picture

My stats teacher at the venerated Northwestern U said on the first day of class, "numbers can say whatever you want them to say" ...................I dropped out after that

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:04 | 2771755 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Here is a golden stat for all:

Workforce participation rate for men:


Lowest since 1948.

Pure amazing magic.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:05 | 2771759 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

There are jobs; they are just SHITTY jobs.

The real rate is 11%, with the U6 rate (which includes the PT ppl) at 22%. 

And what the neoliberal punditocracy WON'T tell you, is that 7% unemployment will be considered "full" employment (the number used to be 4%).

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:08 | 2771766 victor82
victor82's picture

I guarandamteeya that the BLS will come in with 7.9% just before the country goes to the polls (without adjustments, of course).

The Propaganda Ministry will have massive ejaculations all over their viewscreens as they declare the Depression Over.

Helicopter Ben? QE3 on the way?

Get your wheelbarrows out! A loaf of bread should cost two wheelbarrows full of fiat by the turn of the year.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:35 | 2771865 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Chis Matthews may not have many ejaculations left. He may have shot the wad last night

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:15 | 2771781 poor fella
poor fella's picture

The ONE PLACE where Birinyi's Ruler actually works quite well. Charting youth unemployment and extrapolating out those effects should also be telling us.... something, probably.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:18 | 2771794 barnaby33
barnaby33's picture

This article seems long on anger and short on analysis. What about the demographic shift of the boomer generation away from working years? Merely extrapolating past trends into the future, is not enough.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:26 | 2771815 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Yea and what about pure amazing magic?

The trendline still must keep up with new applicants entering or trying to enter the workforce. 2-3 million a year.

Lowest rate for men since 1948?

Give me a break.

Doesn't matter however this is one stat that cannot be cooked forever for when the dam breaks it is free fall from that point.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:28 | 2771818 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Possibly, but I know quite a few near-retirement people that are clinging on with new vigor. They're not leaving... The retirement shortfall is only going to get worse and worse with the same demographics you bring up (a lack of pensions/experience/income of younger workers vs. Boomers.)

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:26 | 2771822 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

If anyone finds any credibility in the mainstream  lamestream ,please let me know.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:36 | 2771870 poor fella
poor fella's picture

You're on it!  ;)   ZH is getting kudos almost weekly by Santelli and Matt Miller. Even guests bring it up on occasion - more and more people are seeing the emperor is one naked mofo.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:39 | 2771886 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

It's the new government shared prosperity thing that has workers leaving the workforce in droves.  Central planning marches on....

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:47 | 2771917 GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture



Our government only knows one way now. The Russiians call it pravda, "truth" but just as with the Soviets all our data from the government and the WS power elites are lies.


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:25 | 2772068 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Don't forget the damn lies ...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:53 | 2771941 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Great point! While U3 and U6 fell a little, people have to realize that the number of people going on disability is greater than the number of people dropping off of unemployment rolls.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:23 | 2772064 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Plant strawberries in your yard, become your own migrant laborer.

What would the ouput be for all of the perfectly arable land sitting under suburban lawn sprawl (a sprawl which only adds to water pollution from over fertilizing and chemicals),

If people could grow their own vegetables and some of their own fruit ... Ha, the USDA would be all over it, I know, if you were take the terroristic stance of selling any of it to neighbors ...

But think how much people could save, think of the stress reduction and health benefits of diet and exercise tending your own plots, the satisfaction of fresh produce and the satisfaction of producing ... something.

Industrial economy, industrial fascistic farming, industrial obesity, all leading to industrial strength default on a debt burden out of control.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:18 | 2772115 YouAreBliss
YouAreBliss's picture
The illusion of Justice and Freedom and how it really works in modern America. Forget both parties political rhetoric.   Owners Lose Possessions After Home Near Twentynine Palms Is Mistakenly Foreclosed  

"The owners of a modest home near Twentynine Palms lost their cherished possessions after a bank mistakenly foreclosed their residence.

A crew broke into Alvin and Pat Tjosaas’ desert home and took everything after being directed by Wells Fargo to secure the structure.

The couple, however, didn’t have a mortgage on the home."


How we treat the salt of the earth, good, humble people WHO BUILT THIS COUNTRY (NOT SOME VULTURE CAPITALIST LIKE ROMNEY WHO WORK TO TEAR IT APART)!!!  Who cares??  As long as we have our Shopping/Football/Church/Drugs we're happy!

How they did it in the 1860's : The Wide Awakes - Marched for Social Justice for Lincoln and the Progressives and could not be intimidated or ignored.


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:20 | 2772277 The Laughing Man
The Laughing Man's picture

Interesting how the implied rate is shown as being higher than the reported rate during the Reagan and Obama years, yet is reversed during the Bush 41, Clinton, and Bush 43 years.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:38 | 2772372 SystemsGuy
SystemsGuy's picture

Part of that shrinking labor force is coming from demographics - the surge of retirees that went back into the labor force in 2008 after the stock market tanked are now four years older, and either finding it harder to remain in the labor force or are dying off (which also makes it harder to remain in the workforce), and this is also meeting the wedge of boomer retirees that will soon become a flood as that generation reaches pension age. Since most gov't programs and many pension benefits dry up if you are working past that point, this is causing the labor force itself to shrink on the upper end).

This is not to say that the BLS numbers aren't unrealistic, but I suspect the BLS numbers now also reflect the same kind of negative biases that occur at inflection points - BLS numbers tend to be unrealstically positive at the tops of cycles and unrealistically negative at the bottom of cycles. Add into that the uncertainties with the coming budget cliff and the systemic disintegration of Euope,and I'd the BLS numbers are actually consistent with their longer term significance.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:52 | 2772449 Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

Decided I wanted to stop being an entrepreneur and back into the "regular" working life as an employee. Just went through a second round interview this week. About 3000 applied for the job. Granted the minimum requirements were a bachelors degree and a drivers license.  About 350 passed the "exam"and were granted first round interviews. 194 have been given second round interviews for 25 spots. So the success rate will be under one percent. Less than 1% odds for an entry level job; but hey it comes with an actual salary, and benefits and lots of opportunity for career advancement. 

Even though I am technically overqualified my educational and work background are very well matched. I feel a little bit sorry for the recent grads with no real experience and only a bachelors degree cause I saw plenty of middle aged people interviewing and I presume many of them have advanced degrees and additional experience in the field and will push out some recent grads. But hey this extremely competitive job market is the new reality period. I don't foresee it changing anytime soon. 




Fri, 09/07/2012 - 15:11 | 2772756 dolph9
dolph9's picture

The other thing to remember is that not everybody wants to work.  Some are disability cheats, some are not.

I plan to go part time starting next year, and then maybe do that for 2-5 years until this whole thing crashes.  I have no debt, my precious metals holdings will see me through for years, but even then I may just end up on food stamps eventually or shacking up with somebody and scrubbing their floors.  And who cares.

Entire families grow up on welfare.  Why should I work to support them?  So that they don't riot?  Fuck that.

And look I'm not particularly "proud" one way or the other.  Life is existential, you make choices, compete a little, and then die.  I have made my choice...working full time in America isn't worth it for me, and I refuse to do it.

Let the Mexican illegals work and see how far it gets them.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 17:06 | 2773163 optimator
optimator's picture

Don't discount those that work "Under the Table".  Lots of benefits that way.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 16:10 | 2773002 edifice
edifice's picture

People need to look at BLS' U-6 figure, not the U-3 figure reported by the media and quoted in this article. U-6 includes underemployed workers and is a more accurate representation of the labor market. That said, U-6 is around 15%.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 16:51 | 2773129 EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

I think 11.7% is still low-balling it. You need not worry though. As soon as we invade Iran all of the unemployed and underemployed (especially those with student debt) will get the opportunity to be all that they can be! Afterall, war (the destruction of resources and human life) is an economic stimulous.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 18:58 | 2773433 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

The big lie here is the conflation of the government definition of  unemployment, and the popular definition "not having a job".

If you are out of work, changing the govermnment definition does not suddenly find you a full time job. Similarly, declaring the unemployment rate to be 8% does not suddenly find full time well paying jobs for 42 of the 50 out of 100  recent graduates who can not find a suitable job.

Fortunately, we have Twitter and Facebook to dispel this myth.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:09 | 2773775 zippy-day
zippy-day's picture

this comment is for slewie the pi-rat -dude lighten up, most people have an opinion and diversity is good for conversation,,,  but you sound like a tool ! ,,  haha   personally, i think  mitt will lose ,,to Obumer in the fall, but the least ugly skunk is still a skunk,,,   i dont believe their is much diff between either candidate,,,,  letssee,, Obumer cut taexes and increeases spening, humm  what did GWdo for 8 yrs,,   what is ole Mitt going to do,, war,   humm  bush started a few obumer continued a few,, mitt want to ahve a few,,,   i could go on and on,,,  but do not wish to cause you any further discomfort,, all the best ,                         signed  ,a wide eyed optomist, ..   make sure your vote nonethe less.,.,   ..... 

Sat, 09/08/2012 - 02:32 | 2774036 EconoIdiot
EconoIdiot's picture

I am just glad I can still afford my own P.O. Box.  That way I don't worry about someone stealing my paychecks.

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