Real Unemployment Rate Hits 11.7% As Spread Between Reported And Propaganda Data Hits Record

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's reported unemployment rate: 8.1%. The reason: the labor "participation" dropped to a 31 year low 63.5% as reported earlier. Of course, this number is pure propaganda, and makes no sense for one simple reason: despite the economic collapse started in December 2007, the US civilian non-institutional population since then has grown by 186,000 people every month on average hitting an all time high of 243,566,000 in August. These people need a job, and the traditional shorthand is that at least 100,000 jobs have the be generated every month for the unemployment rate to merely stay flat, let along improve. So what does one get when one uses the long-term average of the past 30 or so years which happens to be 65.8%? One gets an unemployment number that is 45% higher than the reported 8.1%, or 11.7%. That is what the real unemployment rate is assuming the US labor participation rate was realistic and not manipulated by the BLS cronies and the Bank of Spain assisted Arima-X-13 seasonal adjustment models. It also means that, as the chart below shows, the spread between the real and propaganda data hit an all time record, which was to be expected two months ahead of America's banker muppet presidential election.

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Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:35 | 2771617 malikai
malikai's picture

So I guess it's QE3->on right now?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:39 | 2771632 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Man, there is just so much bullish news the past two days that I don’t know what to do with myself. I’m like Joe-joe the idiot circus boy with a pretty new pet. But the pet is a possible QE3. Now like any other QE I pet it and I stroke it and I love it but the market keeps going up… You market, you notty little pet, your notty. And I take my notty little pet and I go rewawawa, breaahaha….. Ooooo, the markets bulls killed it, they killed my QE3 pet…..

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:44 | 2771654 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Yeah... What was that Dumb Old Saying ...

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics ...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:52 | 2771699 Badabing
Badabing's picture

BLS

Bullshit Labor Statistics

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:24 | 2771803 economics9698
economics9698's picture

11.7% is about right.  I am going to do my own calculation this weekend and I bet its right around 11.5%.  You need to compare a healthy economy, the federal government consuming 18.2% of the GDP compared to the obscene levels today, 24.3%.

Fiscal policy is easy;

1.  Spend 18% of the GDP or less.

2.  Balance the fucking budget.

That’s it.  Its that simple despite the bull shit these politicians spit out everyday.

 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:31 | 2771841 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Consider:

•Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 96k compared to estimates of 125k - 130k and a far cry from the average growth of 139k in 2012. Last year the average monthly gain was 153k.

•July's NFP number was revised lower from 163k to 141k.

•The greatest gains came from the food services and drinking sector. In other words, from waiting tables or bartending. These are some of the most brutal, lowest paying jobs extant.

•The labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%, the lowest read in over 30 years. When this number goes down so does the stated unemployment rate. To get to 8.1% unemployment, 368,000 Americans had to drop out of the labor force.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:34 | 2771859 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

The BLS U6 is ~15% and ShadowStats.com has it at over 20% (calculating in a way similar to the methodology to what was done in the 1930's). I think 11.8 is pretty low.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:53 | 2771942 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The 8.1% or 11.7% here is U-3.  The U-6 is 14.7%.  Two different calculations.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:56 | 2771947 john39
john39's picture

and how many in the "private sector" are in the arms business....  this is not a real part of the economy.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:11 | 2772239 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"How many fingers, Winston?"

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:58 | 2771959 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

    the federal government consuming 18.2% of the GDP compared to the obscene levels today, 24.3%.

GDP can fall far faster than the gummit can cut entitlements, especially since GDP is basically just a health-statistic for the financial industry.  This should be expected. 

And as tax revenue keeps dropping, the deficit should get far worse, even if the fiscal cliff results in the "automatic" austerity cutbacks.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 18:37 | 2773375 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

California sales tax down 30% YOY.

Gonna get worse, too.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:12 | 2773780 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Our "fearless" leaders can NEVER VOLUNTARILY cut spending, "The Creature From Jekyll Island" explains why.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:22 | 2771804 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

All is well.  The Great and Powerful OZ has spoken! 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:35 | 2772103 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

All is well.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:15 | 2773786 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

BDI is only 22 points above the low from last February (647).

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:44 | 2771907 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Bullshit Lying Statistics.

There, fixed it for yah.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:42 | 2771647 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

I doubt it. QE3 helps liquidity problems. Banks are insolvent, but ironically very liquid.

I think there will be some form of stimulus, but not QE3. And it will probably occur after the election.

I have a lot of PMs, so QE3 would be welcome, but I don't see it in the short term.

Obama is tied in the polls, but it's the electoral college that counts and he has a pretty big expected lead over romney. His best bet is to stay calm until after the election.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:45 | 2771659 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

This is going to end the same as the SF real estate market.  The higher the markets keep going, the harder and steeper the fall will be.  I hope all of you have taken copious notes and will communicate the FACTS and REASONS why things turn out the way they will.  No more pointing fingers in each direction and trying to deflect the blame.  We KNOW who is responsible and they should be held accountable.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:15 | 2771778 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

If people are not paying attention and that happens tough luck. Part of the reason the real estate market melted down was greed many people thought they could buy a house with nothing down, live in it and turn it for a profit . That worked until it didn't.  The others supposedly thought they could refinance it when the time came which was not logical to begin with given their credit history's and income. 

 

Markets Setting Themselves Up for Another ECB Letdown?

 

Mario Draghi promised a bazooka but produces a pea-shooter

 

 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:35 | 2771811 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Somewhat a generalization on the RE market, but that aside, you don't think greed is involved by the markets contnuously trying to front-run the Fed?  And this isn't Joe 6-pack that's driving this equation and benefiting from it along the way, its the fucking whores on Wall Street that keep getting more Monopoly money from the Fed to play with.  Ben always days, "Life is like a box of bubbles."

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:43 | 2771897 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Definitely I think it's greed that is the point I was trying to convey by using the real estate analogy. For a few years the average Joe could buy a home flip it and make some money.  When you think about it the real estate market was like a Ponzi those who got in first doing that made out those who came late to the game lost out. Seriously anyone with common sense should have seen the bubble for what it was since income was not keeping pace with housing costs especially given the types of loans. The other's didn't have any skin in the game perhaps they were just ignorant but it was one or the other stupid or greedy. It wasn't the first time housing fell in recent memory. If those in market now lose and as you say they aren't regular Joes well tough luck. Even if it is some regular Joe's tough luck the market is a gamble the house always wins.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:45 | 2771910 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Realistically, if WS loses its ass in this process, all they will do is line up for a bail out that taxpayers will get stuck paying for.  We've already seen this charade before and what has changed since then?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:10 | 2772008 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Nothing has changed get to used to it. People talk big about revolution but let's face it until the bottom really drops out here in the U.S. and I mean really drops like like a complete collapse where they can't hand out food stamps and other benefits it will be business as usual.  We still have some middle class they have to finish wiping out. That will still take a while they can play this game longer then people think. When that is accomplished the only thing you can do is be prepared.

REPORT: Geithner Dumping TARP Bank Shares At Below Market Prices To Make Obama More Appealing To Voters

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:26 | 2772071 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

If you go back and look at the REAL history of the housing bubble,

you will find it had more to do with the banks greed.THEY pressured valuers into

inflating prices,they sold mortgages upto 42 seperate times.THEY collected on CDS

on ALL those fraudulent sales,and THEY are cramming those bad loans into

REMIC.s now to cover their multiple frauds.

In terms of greed,the homeowners are relatively inocent in comparison.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:12 | 2772244 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

True, but that was because the federal regulation mandated that they provide loans to low income and minorities so as to "not discriminate" against those groups.  All of this was fueled by sub-market interest rate policy enacted by the Fed, causing misallocation of capital and eliminating risk management by lenders and insurers.  So, there's LOTS of blame to go around.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 13:44 | 2772405 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Plenty of greed to go around no doubt about that we could throw in the ratings agencies also but those banks didn't force those people to take those loans. I am not sticking up for the banks just injecting a dose of reality.  The greed was not when they gave the loans then they were just doing what banks do in a Capitalist system what wasn't Capitalist was forcing them to give out loans to unqualified borrowers. However contrary to the conservative view point even that wasn't the primary cause since it was done world wide and they were not forced in other countries.  The greed by the banks and the ratings agencies were in truth when they sold the garbage loans as AAA and infested otherwise innocent investors including mom and pop's retirement accounts. 


Fri, 09/07/2012 - 14:55 | 2772695 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Don't be so bitter. Why not sponsor an executive who is down on his luck:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDC0qcf0kzE&feature=autoplay&list=FLqeTd...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:36 | 2771620 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Go long propoganda bitches!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:37 | 2771623 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Spread 'em bitchez!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:38 | 2771625 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Ignore that man behind the curtain. I am the mighty OZ. If I say unemployment is 8.1% it IS 8.1%

(Ben practicing his profession as a child)

http://i.imgur.com/XaiUx.gif

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:41 | 2771640 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

(posted on another thread already, but there are posts here from some that I want to reach)...

Ladies and Gentlemen:

I have posted on here for months. My anger has showed through on numerous posts.

I know I am among many fellow traders here, and see others like me - who are as angry - feel cheated - robbed - of being a trader. I can bellow my angst - use foul language - rage against the machine that is the markets these days....on here, and elsewhere.....but what good does it do?

Nothing....in reality.

These numbers - and the market action of these past months, have led me to become totally disenfranchised from the ability to see things clearly - as a trader of others people's money - to make good decisions - and frankly, I don't know what to do about it.

Being that we see all the honest data - and much of it on this site, I feel we have jaundiced ourselves; I sure have.

On one hand, I cannot join this hopium rally based on false numbers. I look like a fool as a result - performance wise.

On the other, not doing so is cheating my clients out of performance. Clients I am responsible for. Clients who depend on me to make right decisions - most of the time. The key word being "most".....I hardly have done that this year....

I honestly can say that I am not sure what to do about it. I know I am not alone - but "misery loves company" means nothing as well.

I value ZH for providing the truth. For giving the un-varnished reports and data that they do.

However, KNOWING the REAL truth, and exacerbating it from reading it here daily, has effected me.

Therefore, beginning with this post on here, I'll cut down on my comments herein, and not visit the site as much as I have been; certainly not to rage anymore......it does no good.

I wish all the professionals and fellow traders that come here God Speed in their endeavor to persevere in these extremely troubled times....

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:46 | 2771666 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I can relate to these feelings. I think a lot of us can. But is this person saying they will cut back on the truth so they can make better bets in the rigged casino???

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:53 | 2771696 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Yes

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:01 | 2771737 drink or die
drink or die's picture

I think he wants to be plugged back into the Matrix...

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:27 | 2772075 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

I see what you gleaned from what I wrote; and if I were reading that from another, I would make that snap judgement Vincent.

As Cog said, there is way to know the truth and trade the lie.

Never done that before - but during this time period, I better adjust - fast.

With my luck lately, I adjust - then the markets will come to reality.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 15:55 | 2772956 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

You're already back and commenting??? That didn't last long.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:51 | 2771689 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I know the feeling you describe and I understand the sentiment. At times I suffer with you as I am also a professional.

But in essence what you are saying is that ignorance is bliss.......or at least less stressful. There is a way to know the truth, but still trade the lie. It requires keeping your feet on two separate ice flows that often move in different directions, a difficult task under the best of conditions, but doable if you try.

Above all else it requires that we cleanse ourselves of our righteous indignation and outright anger. As long as we personalize and internalize the lies, deceit and corruption propagated by the Ponzi we are ineffective at anything other than being angry.

Good luck!

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:12 | 2771774 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

"There is a way to know the truth, but still trade the lie. It requires keeping your feet on two separate ice flows that often move in different directions, a difficult task under the best of conditions, but doable if you try."

Thanks Cog; I needed that. Well put. I have out of step with the markets this year (risk on, when risk was off, and vice versa, numerous times). That just wasn't so in years past. This constant battering has effected me - no doubt.

To do what you say and suggest - now - after this latest ....whatever you call this...."rally" - and to adopt that duality - is going to be tough (and with luck I am having, the markets will come to their senses and begin to act "normally" - was my first thought when reading your post.

TGIF...and also that I have overcome trading losses before. But, to do so under this mountain of total hogwash was not that reason. Traders accept losses as a fact of the profession. But to accept them under this is doubly painful.

Again, I appreciate the thoughts....

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:57 | 2771719 J 457
J 457's picture

Bettle, I'm not a money manager but share your sentiment.  There is such a disconnect from reality in this market its clear every day the level of outright manipulaiton.

Using yesterday as another example, on nothing more than a few words, the market cap of the global markets increase in "value" by billions of dollars.

And today we have what should be viewed as dire news and instead the markets are up because more QE is expected.

I yearn for the day when the average person wakes up to the fact that this debt fueled "recovery" is nothing more than the result of 0% rates and 7 trillion of debt and realizes they will be negatively impacted for years to come.  Maybe then we'll see some real action from the people to call their elected officials and demand some real change.  China announcing stimulus this morning makes me sick.  This is what the US needs to be doing instead they sit idle talking of more hope. And to think the Chinese will have half thier infrastructre plan paid for by T-Bill debt paid by the US.  I guess at least that money/payment will be created from nothing... 

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:08 | 2771764 hapless
hapless's picture

Fuck your clients.  They were stupid to hire you anyway.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:47 | 2772151 gtb
gtb's picture

I don't care who you are...that's funny.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 15:12 | 2772770 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

From the movie "Animal House" ...."you fucked up...you trusted us".

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 11:10 | 2771770 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

There is no spoon

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:51 | 2771782 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

What good is the truth if no one believes it?

Well, eventually, the truth has a way of kicking you in the balls, knocking you down, curb stomping your teeth out and pissing all over your bruised, unconscious body if you dont see it coming.

My professional advice is to do your job and make other people money in the rigged system best you can, but personally, I would be preparing for a collapse.  Do your job and plan for survival.  That's what I do.  Will stock piles of necessities hurt me if I never need them?  Nope.  Will not having stock piles of necessities hurt me when I need them?  fuck yes.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:15 | 2772032 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

OR.... ZH is just an arm of the GS propaganda machine targetted at the above average IQ. Why shouldn't smart people get fleeced as well? Why would GS leave money on the table for smart people?

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 22:21 | 2773797 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Put around 20% of yer client's FRNs into PHYSICAL Au/Ag/Pt/Pd, AND play the Fed's trading game until The Great Implosion™ -- at least yer clients will have 20% of hard assets afterwards.

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 12:42 | 2772129 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture

unemployment is 8.1%

Fri, 09/07/2012 - 10:37 | 2771626 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hope & Change Fresh Style Homies!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!