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Reality Strikes As Italy Slashes Economic Growth, Hikes Deficit Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For all those who thought the smooth-talking, avuncular Goldman operative Mario Monti would never lie when he said "Italy is fine", we have some bad news. He did:

  • *ITALY REVISES 2012 GDP TO -2.4% FROM -1.2%
  • *ITALY REVISES 2013 GDP TO -0.2% FROM GROWTH OF 0.5%
  • *ITALY RAISES 2012 DEFICIT TARGET TO 2.6% FROM 1.7%
  • *ITALY REVISES 2013 DEFICT TO 1.6% OF GDP FROM 0.5%
  • *ITALY SEES 2012 DEBT AT 126.4% OF GDP, 2013 DEBT AT 127.1%

 

 

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Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:40 | 2815301 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Ooooops!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:44 | 2815313 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Hope that "unlimited" OMT has enough capacity to bail out Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, and eventually France, Germany, etc.

The ECB should've done a stealth bailout of Italy by moving their HQ to Italy and paying Italians to build their new facility.  With how much Italian companies are forced to overcharge due to regulations, they probably would've managed to balance the budget for this year.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:47 | 2815351 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood, wake up.  Mario Draghi HAS NOT BOUGHT A SINGLE BOND from his plan.

It's all jawboning.  NOTHING HAS BEEN ACTUALLY DONE, probably because the Germans made a deal:

"You can claim you're going to do all these things, and we'll say supportive things, but under NO CIRCUMSTANCES are you allowed to actually do any of them."

That got Spanish yields under 6%.  When someone calls his bluff and he can't buy any bonds, it will all disintegrate.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:18 | 2815484 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Time for the inflation magic fairy to show up.

Real deficit = Nominal deficit - (inflation rate x total deficit)

 

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:31 | 2815527 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Then Mario calls in reinforcements from TBTF, who lean on Uncle Ben to prop up the ponzi a little longer.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:52 | 2815383 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Hey, but look at the upside. Our deficit will only be 6.8% of the GDP in the coming FY.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:21 | 2815491 economics9698
Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:52 | 2815384 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Hey, but look at the upside. Our deficit will only be 6.8% of the GDP in the coming FY.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 14:06 | 2815634 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

THREE CARD MONTY (Mario Monty)

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 14:49 | 2815713 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Monti is a good German - he has done his Job of keeping the German economic oil tank full - this waste is then expressed in German GDP growth....

GDP is a truly terrible economic metric.

It is the waste needed to pay interest on Sov debt without costly political tension

 

omrpublic.iea.org/demand/ge_dl_ov.pdf     He is also very popular in France......  
omrpublic.iea.org/demand/fr_dl_ov.pdf  

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:06 | 2815834 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You're a very thoughtful person. And you think about political realities. I look forward to your posts. Monti is a good german; yeah, that brings a smile to my face. After WW11, a lot of "good Germans" were simply liars. But then, that's no dis-qualification, is it.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:09 | 2815841 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

costly political tension;" Yeah; well, it's sure cheaper than using Poland for a Chessboard to play with Tanks.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 14:12 | 2815653 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

Hey, let's stop joking around! Nobody could have ever seen this coming!

/sarc

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 14:39 | 2815737 jal
jal's picture

A report came out that the Canadians spent $11M in hotel rents while helping the Lybians.

Now, the Canadians are gone things are going to get worst.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:40 | 2815302 Ewe235
Ewe235's picture

Bullish!!!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:41 | 2815309 fuu
fuu's picture

Surprise!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:41 | 2815311 StockHut
StockHut's picture

Need. More. Inflation.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:42 | 2815312 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Solid investment grade, lol

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:42 | 2815314 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

"We don't need any bailout from the ECB to buy our bonds....D'OOHHHH!!!!"

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:42 | 2815316 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Fortunately, Mario Draghi is Italian.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:29 | 2815519 RSloane
RSloane's picture

He also worked for Goldman Sachs.

Sat, 09/22/2012 - 14:29 | 2820643 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Yes, an explosive mixture.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:43 | 2815320 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Benvenuto Italia!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:43 | 2815322 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Don Carleone: "and tell Luca Brazi i said come here....."

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:43 | 2815324 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Argentina is about to be kicked out of the IMF for lying about their economic statistics.

I suppose we all do realize about half of Europe should be kicked out, too?

Has anyone noticed that no one has a plan to fix these numbers?  Celebrations are convened when there is announcement that they will borrow more money, or more specifically, that someone is willing to lend them more money and deepen their hole.  But a plan to fix it?  Nada.

They are all stuck in the Old Normal of thinking that they can grow their way out.  They cannot envision the reality that they are past the tipping point and growing will never get them out.

Instead, the goal is keep the juggled balls in the air, wait for a natural disaster to occur, and then they can blame all the evaporation of people on the disaster rather than themselves.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:49 | 2815355 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

People love it and cant have enough.

Argentina a lot of other things that the EU did'nt ;)

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:06 | 2815443 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

This thing is all living on hope, and there is still plenty to be sold, although peak hope could be near now. But expect a tsunami of hope in the coming 45 days with the Obummer campaining on big nothings. This guy is better at selling hope than the Mexican lords are at selling coke.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:28 | 2815515 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Au contraire my friend... Obamacare has a gubermint plan in the works to facilitate the 'Private Medicinal Marijuana Program' into a facsimile ?GSE?  [eg. private prison systems, etc.,]... where medicare will pick up the tab for your bong'spuff !

sayin it ain't so...

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:05 | 2815386 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

I'm just waiting for the bond vigilantes to ring the bell for "last call".

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:53 | 2816000 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

For a time that seemed likely and possible both.

But then it became clear that HFT is almost the majority of bond trading volume.

The vigilante reality was far too obvious.  The governments will not allow ANYTHING to stop their juggling of balls in the air.  If a vigilante shows up with size sufficient to undo HFT, he'll be killed.

We'll never hear about it.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:55 | 2815394 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

Argentina is about to be kicked out of the IMF for lying about their economic statistics.

Congratulations you are now free!

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 00:33 | 2816975 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

<< Argentina is about to be kicked out of the IMF for lying about their economic statistics. >>

 

If they kick out all countries that 'lie' about their stats (i.e., apply that policy equally), no country would be left, would they?

Fri, 09/21/2012 - 00:51 | 2816993 Jena
Jena's picture

Well, if it works for Argentina, then it will certainly work for the U.S.  So that's the plan, is it Ben?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:51 | 2815339 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The IEA diesel consumption in Italy pointed in this direction for some time now - its not a surprise.

(diesel is the oil stuff which does the work)

PS also the Italian private car market is turning Greek.

The Drop in Greek car regs just gets bigger & bigger. (ACEA)
Jan – Aug 07 : 208,921
Jan -Aug 11 : 72,513
Jan – Aug 12 est : 42,072
One fifth of credit boom sales now.

Astounding either with or without a devaluation but those guys must have no tokens for domestic commerce.
The very big market of Italy could obviously become the next Greece with huge consequences for zee Germans.(what are the Current Volks ,Merc ,BMW sales in Italy , or is it all Polish Fiat 500s ?)
Jan -Aug 07 : 1,741,322
Jan -Aug 11 : 1,224,096
Jan – Aug 12est : 981,030….. a bit over half of credit bubble peak

Spain is a bit further along this path
Jan -Aug 07 : 1,119,050
Jan – Aug 11 : 568,349
Jan – Aug 12est : 520,216……just under half of credit bubble peak. (flat lining ?)

Spain would probally benefit most from a return to a domestic currency given its previous massive internal rail investments with for example 3 million+ people still using the Barcelona to Madrid plane shuttle in 2010 despite the presence of a high speed rail connection since 2008.
There is still a few Gems remaining in Spain (although not many)
A Christmas spent in Seville looks nice.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOCgVbDIpt8

Its Germany that is in trouble – In Germany YOU NEED Gas / oil central heating(currently 400KBD) ,Seville not so much although the culture of Siesta needs to be brought back for the summer months as air conditioning will be prohibitively expensive under the Spanish Peseta with only the rich affording airconditioning courtesy of
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PS20_solar_power_plant

Cannot really understand why the Spainish & Italian do not default…..they are dead ducks withen the Euro.
Same political culture as Ireland I suspect , the guys on top have too much to lose.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:54 | 2815388 magpie
magpie's picture

Hey D of C, i've been following your posts for a while. What country in the Eurozone is even close to viable according to your energy consumption/import model ?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:27 | 2815441 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Well - they will never become energy secure but they can become semi viable only when they leave the Eurozone and become nations again rather then the post 1987 Europe of Extreme Market states.

The money  / energy construct then works over shorter distances using surplus energy to feed domestic demand and investment rather then sustaining ultra long distance commerce and international banking energy / labour arbitrage operations.

The more countries go along the national road the less energy leakages.......for example despite the depression in Ireland aviation burns 3 times as much Kerosene as it did in 1990 despite slightly better engines.......this extracts from domestic demand.....

The domestic demand & fixed capital investment figures were published today in Ireland and they are quite horrible.......GDP is fine though.....

Total Irish domestic demand (current)

Y2007 Q1 : 43,003 Million

Y2007 Q2 : 42,115 Milllion 

 

Y2012 Q1 : 30 ,915 million

Y2012 Q2 : 29,947 million

Don't be fooled by the banking spin in Ireland..(we are their best pupil)

Google

 Economic Adjustment Programme for Ireland — Summer 2012 ...

In the above report they at least openly stated that they must take money from people so as to make private banks profitable. (think about that for a second ...... if so what is the function of private banks ?)

This is the extreme rentier dynamics that Micheal Hudson talks about.

There is no role for credit banks in a energy starved world - they can only function as parasites which is their natural gift.

FIAT FIAT FIAT and I am not talking about the Fiat 500 which is Polish made now.

The non national Euro experiment means we must export to countries where malinvestment is currently occuring  so as to pay off previously malinvested debt...eventually when Germany is destroyed via migration following footlose capital & subsequent malinvestmet the capital will move back into previously broken countries ... and the cycle repeats......downwards into a entropy pit.

Its a entropy cycle - bank credit money only lives to run down existing social  energy systems.

A global cul de sac.

Given that domestic customers  are so much closer then external markets the energy lost from these pointless exports is huge.

This could otherwise be used to sustain domestic demand and rational investment.

Countries need to renationalise their money systems.

The last time total quarterly domestic demand was in the 29,000s was in the Year 2003

Back then stuff was a bit cheaper I gather and the population of the Irish state was far lower at 3.979 million rather then 4.484 million of 2011.

PS

Italian Diesel consumption

omrpublic.iea.org/demand/it_dl_ov.pdf  
Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:17 | 2815877 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

What do you do for a living? If I was running a hedge fund in Europe I'd definetely want to interview you as a portfolio manager. Reality is a bitch; but it's all we got. The Aircraft Fuel usuage is symptomatic of the inflationary period we just lived through; Now, in the new normal, it looks in-correct to do so much long range shipping; then, it was "okay".

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:35 | 2815941 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Sat

I work for Chet Raymo ..... I am a character in one of his books so I find it impossible to leave the two-dimensional  world of the page.............

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:26 | 2815909 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Have you read the book, "The Tradgedy of the Euro"; the subject matter includes it's birth and how and why it was created. It's actually available on line to read for free; I believe it's in the library at www. Mises.com. The purpose of the Euro was to prevent the periodic de-valuations of the French Franc vis a vis the German Mark; to avoid embarrassment for the French Socialists and attacks by the market; it was forced on Germany by blackmail; their Chancellor at the time had to faithfully promise to go along with the joke in order to secure permission from France, UK, USA, to re-unite and become one country again; being Germans they actually did their duty and kept their promise. Most of the German population is completely mystified as to why their "leaders" ever got into this in the first place. The financial machinery behind the Euro looks like an alarm clock built by an eight year old; it's missing a couple of gears.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 16:02 | 2816004 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Sat

The purpose of the euro was to replace the concept of the nation state (also a product of banking) with the lowest level of hell - the market state.

Read

 The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace and the Course of History

 (2002) Philip Bobbitt

History is repeating itself - the Venetian banking system wishes to destroy.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryozM8twDUI

 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:34 | 2815939 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I think we can safely say there is a dis-connect between the "leaders" and the population. As long they can manage with "spin"; they will; civil wars are so messy.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:49 | 2815361 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Economic growth? Italy? Really? And then there's Spain. Really? Oh, and then there's the US. No shit - really? And, pardon me - China. Really?

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:51 | 2815365 poor fella
poor fella's picture

We're barrelling down a tunnel we should have exited LONG ago. Instead of slowing down, we've accelerated, into the void, hoping for daylight, and everyone is along for the 'ride'.

"To Ludicrous Speed!!!"

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:50 | 2815366 surf0766
surf0766's picture

How was your vacation good?  Glad to hear it.

Global collapse....

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:52 | 2815375 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Yep soon as someone offers money; wouldn't you know it; they need twice as much. Banksters what loathsome creatures.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:54 | 2815387 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

So the Italian hockey stick was finally crushed by reality. Time to re-apply that hockey stick starting 2014. I expect them to expect at least a 2.0 percent GDP growth in 2014. After all in 2010 Greece was expected to grow by 2.1 percent this year.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:55 | 2815393 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

The Titanic is also fine.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:30 | 2815922 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, you could say that; yes. It's certainly in no danger of sinking.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:59 | 2815400 poor fella
poor fella's picture

WHERE'S PAULSON, RUBIN, CORZINE, BLANKFEIN, DIMON, AND GEITHNER WHEN YOU NEED 'EM!?!?!?

Quick! Send Goldman's crack team of can-kicker profiteers!!!!! There's still a few American tax-payers ready to take it to save the global financial system, otherwise, just CHARGE IT!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 12:59 | 2815406 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

Bunga Bunga time

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:00 | 2815413 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Very nice. Rating: AWESOME.

I look forward to a riot-ly Euro Christmas.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:00 | 2815417 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Can't they help a guy out in need ; a trillion at 0% for eternity should do it.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:03 | 2815425 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What is this "reality" you speak of?

AAPL over $700/share and "deficits don't matter" are playing on the monkey grinder.

Here are Ben and Timmy and the amazing QE organ:  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/89/Organ_grinder_with_monkey.jpg

A little music, some cotton candy, and the kids will be so happy (in the moment).

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:07 | 2815448 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I thought the Concordia was the only thing that sunk.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:11 | 2815463 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

 

 

Optimistic

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 13:55 | 2815596 gggunchi
gggunchi's picture

Burn baby burn!  Come on.  Lets have this collapse all of a sudden.  I'm sick of this stupid monopoly money, and would like the return on the DMARK.  The world needs a first would nation that can manage its money properly post collapse.  

 

This is getting ridicuous.  I wish something would blow up, either an Iranian Nuke Plant, or 10,000 Chinease fishing boats, or something to get the ball rolling.  

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:31 | 2815927 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Be careful what you wish for.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 14:04 | 2815624 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

But much better than Uganda.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 14:40 | 2815740 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Everyone should know better by now.

Just BTFDYFI. 

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:02 | 2815747 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Noi ora seamo tutti come Schettino!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:00 | 2815804 AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

Am I the only one who looked at these numbers and said, "dang these are pretty good when compared to the US".

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:03 | 2815816 valley chick
valley chick's picture

so are we going to have to wait YEARS for the Italy shit show?  Bring. it. on.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:14 | 2815863 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

BULLISH! More QE!

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 15:45 | 2815968 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Jeff Grundlach was interviewed today or yesterday as saying that the US Ten Year could increase 100 basis points in interest by December. This corresponds to a lower price for the Note; which trades in the aftermarket, (after issued); it's enormously significant; I'm having a lot of trouble getting to the actual interview, apparently it was on a segment of CNBC. I'm thinking seriously of going short the Ten Year in the Futures market. Grundlach is actually as smart as I am; and he has a lot of recent experience in upper layers of "Bond World". So, soon, we could be talking about the bond vigilantes attacking our debt; not Spains. Of course this is inevitable; but he's talking about right now, basically. If anyone can get the video interview to play, would they please post it on Zero Hedge; it certainly belongs here. Cheers.

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 20:33 | 2816620 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Those numbers seem way to optomistic

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