This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The Reason Why The Unemployment Rate Dropped: The Labor Participation Rate Is At Fresh 31 Year Lows
Curious why the unemployment rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%, even as just 96,000 jobs were added? The labor participation rate declined from 63.7% to 63.5%, the lowest since 1981. It means that somehow in August the labor force declined by 368,000 people, which is a paradox since according to the household survey 119,000 jobs were lost in August, yet at the same time the unemployment rate dropped. Remember: it is an election year.
»
- 22068 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
once we drop a few hundred k out of labor force next month, the tylers will have to expand that chart out at least 2 more decades to find a lower number.
I thought the participation rate set an all time high new record.......oh wait, that was the foodstamp participation rate. My bad......
Nobody could do better. Bill Clinton told me so and he wouldn't lie would he?
Did you share a cigar with him?
We hear the highly decpetive BLS U-3 # when we should be hearing the BLS U-6 # from our elected "representatives". Worse, the best representation of reality is only available outside the Government @ ShadowStats.com and we will NEVER hear that number (of ~22% unemployment and climbing) from the people in charge.
does this chart correlate to when regan went into borrow and spend mode...and shows the party is over and the waitress just gave us the check...
That comment was a miss. We'll give you another chance. This time try proper grammar if you want to make an intelligent point and also try not to spew incoherent political crap.
Ready, go.
I think he/she was trying to point out the 81 date when Ronnie started the whole deficits-don't-matter thing. Turn the calender back to todays date and realize DEFICITS DO MATTER.
Also back in today, these numbers are an obvious ploy. Next month when it's magically 7.9 obama can say 'I said below 8, and I keep my promises'!
I think this correlates more to when the Baby Boomers fully entered the labor force and reflects them now leaving. I would expect labor force participation to continue to drop back to about 1972 levels. in the coming decade.
Except that the "boomers" are now putting off retirement becuase they can't afford to retire, and are boosting the labor force participation rates for those over 65 to record levels! Anyone out there think this trend will change anytime soon?
That's what I was thinking. That chart looks like the participation rate is about to hit mid-70's levels.
I would say early 70's levels. 1972 to be exact. The long term trend shows that this participation drop off is the result of Boomers leaving the workforce for "retirement". Which these days means food stamps and medicare.
This chart makes me thing 1972 is our target participation rate.
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1948_2012_all_period_M08_data.gif
No doubt due the seasonal warm weather.
Don't forget the rain......we have to move from the staduim.....looks like there could be rain.
Plus "all those retirees" - who, according to the same fraudnesian beancounters who make this argument, obviously won't withdraw funds from the equity markets.
All assumptions always work in favour of the status quo.
Can we still blame bush?
The End of Work.
Thank you China for the trade deficit, Productivity Growth, Ben Confetti, Food Stamps, Disability...
Thank goodness this country didn't encourage China the entire time.
The Reason Why The Unemployment Rate DroppedBecuase there's no jobs?
Fuzzy math?
We don't need no steenking jobs. Obama gonna pay my mortgage
Honk If I'm Paying Your Mortagage
If you earn a lot of really good karma in this life, you might get lucky in the next one and come back as a transgender height impaired undocumnented alien from FreeStuffistan with 12 children and a bad case of chronic fatigue. Then everything you need will be handed to you. :-).
Maybe Obumble will have statisticians come up with a clever formula to calculate that the national debt doesn't really exist. We are actually running a BUDGET SURPLUS. Four more years!
100% FUBAR.
I don't think he knows anyone with those qualifications. Maybe Rex Nutting at Marketwatch?
Nice to know there's someone else out there who despises that fungal toad. Thank you!
Maybe Corzine could make it vaporize.
The landlady said, "You got the rent money yet?",
I said, "No, can't find no job"
Therefore I ain't got no money to pay the rent
She said "I don't believe you're tryin' to find no job"
Said "I seen you today you was standin' on a corner,
leaning up against a post"
I said "But I'm tired, I've been walkin' all day"
She said "That don't confront me,
long as I get my money next Friday"
Now next Friday come I didn't have the rent,
and out the door I went
- George Thorogood and The Destroyers
Great tune. Cheers, one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer...
+1 for that!
Now when he come out tha house
I could see it in his face
I knew it was no
He said, I dunno man, she kinda funny
I said I know
Everybody funny
Now you funny too.
voted least likely to succeed in his HS class. Suck it, bitchez!
Because there is NO POINT in looking for jobs - its called "Voluntary" unemployment
By the November election Mr. Choomwagon will have a seven handle on the unemployment number. It's a virtual certainty.
It's just more of the same. Baffle em with bullshit.
Prosperity is just around the corner
Prosperity every other day - yesterday and tomorrow.
Welcome Back Carter.
Carter's revenge:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWfrpqGDJig
gonna go buy me some Billy Beer wif my food stamps... aint gubmint great?
Billy Beer was $100 a can a long time ago. I'm too lazy to check ebay now.
This has absolutely gotta be killing government income from taxes ...
... so this is what a death spiral looks like ... good to know ...
Cue Bruce K with the latest dismal outlook for SSI, payroll tax rate not withstanding.
Interesting to compare the Reagan years to the Obama years on this chart. How can anyone doubt that both men brilliantly achieved their aims?
1982 was a very sucky year for jobs
I was in high school and worked the summer as a lifeguard. I was making $5/hr which was a shit load as my buddies working at McDs were making around half that. Nowadays kids can't get jobs at McDs because that is where all of the former factory workers go.
the average age at mcdonalds in my area for employees looks to be over 50
Well, who's gonna go out and pay the bills if junior won't get off netflix long enough to take a shower?
Yep. I graduated HS in 82. Things were so bad I had to join the Air Force.
Deja vu. Exactly the same bogus outcome as Australia's official unemployment "fall" earlier this week. Thanks to a 26 year low in participation. We too have an incumbent Fearless Leader prepping to go to the polls.
Obama rounded up a bunch of unemployed people and had them shot.
No prob....they were all terrorists.
More death worshipping Tom? I am disappointed. Enjoying a silver boner this morning however, so that is nice.
"Obama rounded up a bunch of unemployed people and had them shot."
I was going to say that it is unlikely Obama would have those likely to vote for him shot, but then I remembered that the existence of a pulse is not a prerequisite to vote for the Dems.
Can you vote from a FEMA camp?
Must be all those people that saved for retirement by buying Pets.com and FB shares.
Food Stamps are good for the economy, extend unemployment benefits, give additional student loans, need more stimulus, call Uncle Ben, Vote for Black Jesus, soon you will be in Valhalla.
Fools. We don't need to produce or work anymore! Draghi and the Bernank can print all the stuff that we need, with their Star Trek replicators!
Well, now that the DNC Nuremberg rally is over, the Fuehrer might need to pull hard on those strings animating his puppet in the White House, possibly using some staged event to stroke the engine of his American war machine.
Do you need any more proof that all our economic numbers are BS? Official unemployment rates keep falling while the employment situation gets more desperate everyday.
Shadowstats has unemployment at 22.5%.
"The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers."
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
There are lies, damn lies and BLS.
Labor force can drop quite a bit until it reaches historical lows:
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
if you go back to 1948 it was 58%...
You mean when most of the population outside the cities worked as independent farmers.
...and women's participation rate was <35%
I am going to give you a buy here and assume that you realize that if our participation rate is close to 1948 we've got some serious problems in that at that time the vast majority of households were one income. And you could have a Leave it to Beaver existance on one income which is certainly not possible now.
This is pathetic. What kind of country would even consider reelecting a man with such results? He may not have complted his mission to detroy this country but, he has certainly made it well over the 50% mark.
What kind of country elected a man with no past in the first place. Flowery messages of hope and change don't cut it with me. Of course on the other hand theres McCain
...and don't forget (wait for it...) PALIN!
In fact the Jewish lobby is now supporting Romney.
Whatever president wins it'll be because of that support. I think Churchill used to say that politics is the choice between the bad and the disgusting.
Is Ron Paul still running for office ?
Clearly the solution to lowering unemployment is to make it harder to stay on unemployment, just like they are doing with Florida voters by requiring picture id, etc. That will make the numbers look good come November, and beyond to the midterm. Never mind all the people sleeping in cars and cardboard boxes. Back in the day we used to call them bums, but our more sensitive side decided to bestow on them the more dignified moniker of homeless, or domicile challenged.
Transient, they're in transition
People whine that voter ids are an unjust burden yet we live in a country where the law is that everyone needs to purchase healthcare insurance. Somehow that isn't a burden.
You can ask someone for their health insurance papers but God help you if you ask for any other type of identification papers.
If a policeman asks you to show your ID, and you ain't got none, you could get arrested for vagrancy.
No president, since FDR, has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.
He's gonna run out of runway. He needs too many people to "drop out" - the math escapes me.
Math is easy and plenty of runway. When you can't fudge the numerator enough you can always fudge the denominator.
Day before election we get a low 7 handle with everyone saying look at the "trend". Day after election, revised upwards to mid 7 with an oops from BLS.
Sep 2012 - 7.8
Oct 2012 - 7.3 revise to 7.5
Reality: 15 trending to 20
Hey Tyler,
What does the participation rate have to drop to by the November number to get the UE rate under 8?
63.1%. 63.2% if Nov employed is within 150K of Aug. Don't see that happening.
Fun fact: If our participation rate was the same as five years ago, the unemployment rate would currently be 11.3%.
Biden needs to get Corzine on the phone.
The depression continues...
Rick Santelli has just predicted that the Nov2nd unemployment rate would be 7.9% or lower,just in time for the Nov. 6th Election.
I will have to agreed Mr Santelli prediction.
This prediction was and has been made months ago btw by many in the know. It's unfortunately far too easy to predict what this administration will do to get elected.
I honestly do not understand how the majority of Americans still believe in the ideas of the Democratic or Republican Party. The leaders of these parties are simply puppets. Why is it so hard to see?
They want to believe. Hoping is so much less work than rioting.
War anyone?
Welcome to the limits of the Debt Money and Fossil Fuel Economy.
Well, the US work force is 'getting more and more efficient", and this, especially with lack of sound education in the sciences, makes this culture self destructing in a slow motion. And this will not be very visible on the surface, because in order to see the degradation of the values and qualities of the people, one has to have a stable etalon to compare with.
Yup!
Labor force participation stinks. Add in all the people on disability and food stamps and .. the goverment is encouraging people to drop out.
Only reason the numbers don't look worse it because Obama channel stuffed them into the DHS,TSA, and all the other government alphabet soup agencies. The new American gestapo bitchez!
If anyone asks, I never said that. General Oburkahalter would cut my head off!
Only reason the numbers don't look worse it because Obama channel stuffed them into the DHS,TSA, and all the other government alphabet soup agencies. The new American gestapo bitchez!
If anyone asks, I never said that. General Oburkahalter would cut my head off!
http://www.superdry-outlet.me.uk/superdry-hoodies-sale.html
http://www.superdry-outlet.me.uk/superdry-t-shirt.html
http://www.superdry-outlet.me.uk/superdry-vouchers.html
http://www.superdry-outlet.me.uk/superdry-gillet.html
http://www.superdry-outlet.me.uk/superdry-belt.html