Recessionspotting: "You Are Here"
Now that even the likes of Joe LaSagna are starting to throw out the R-word about as casually as they did a 4% 2011 GDP target as recently as 2 months ago, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is pricing in the fact that post a few more historical BEA revisions, the prior two real GDP reads will end up having been, shockingly enough, negative, i.e., your garden variety recession. So where does that put us on a market performance continuum, for those wishing to extrapolate how much further stocks and, yes, bonds (because credit is and always has been a far better indicator of objective market reality) have to drop before we hit the proverbial floor. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, quite a bit lower: "Despite the recent decline in risk assets, we do not believe that recession is in the price. Exhibits 3 and 4 show the typical declines in developed market risk assets in recession. Compared to corrections in past recessions, S&P prices and corporate credit spreads would have more to go, though spreads are starting from a higher level than typically precedes recessions." What is startling is that should central planners lose all control (and with central bank intervention upon intervention, one can argue that should all artificial props be removed, the market really ought to plunge in a Great Depression-style tailspin), the drop from the April 29 peak to the bottom will be roughly 4 times greater... which means the S&P would hit the proverbial "S&P 400" which is the long-term target of the likes of some more popular skeptics such as Albert Edwards and Russell Napier. As for credit: watch out below.
Equities:
and Credit:
And completing the pain, again from Morgan Stanley:
Arguably if there were a recession next year the decline in risk assets would be larger than usual. Investors may be unsettled by two related factors. First, the limited policy options for policymakers. Conventional policy tools are near-exhausted in major developed economies. Moreover, there seems to be political, institutional and market obstacles to aggressive use of unconventional policy tools. Ultimately they may come – the bigger the crisis, the bigger the response – but they may only come after there are very significant asset market losses.
Second, a recession next year would increase deflation risks in developed economies. This is partly a matter of inadequate policy response. But the more important point is that the developed economies would enter recession with the lowest nominal GDP growth rate seen entering recession, so nominal GDP contraction would be a larger-than-usual threat. Falling nominal GDP with elevated debt levels is the deadly debt-deflation combination of the 1930s. We are not forecasting such an outcome, but it is a significant tail risk, and one that could lead to a larger-than-usual setback in risk assets.
Translation: we are on the verge of the biggest deflationary market collapse since the 1930s, which will, inevitably, be followed by the most powerful (read fiat dilutive) central bank response in history.
All those gloating that hyperinflation has not set in yet... give it a year.
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Let's call this what it really is, an economic depression.
In the future when the books are written it will be called Great Depression II.
perhaps you may think life will continue on like it always has , in our collective memories. but i say it will not. there is no future unless we make one.
History books are written by survivors.
the real purpose of all of this is to take down the united states. it is a pebble in the shoe. it must be removed to make the world ready for world government.
World currency first.
I predict that historians will refer to it as The Great Collapse. Or maybe a combination, like a movie title for a sequel, like GDII: The Great Collapse.
I like it.
or, Ma and Pa Kettle go Berserk After 5Th Eviction Notice>
The Great Collapse is more likely...
Or the Great Shakedown...
The Great Implosion...
The Great Freeze...
Who knows?
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/13/why-cash-is-not-king/
The Great Shakedown, I like it. But even though I am sure more than a few of us on this board will survive, we would be likely to have it called the Great Collapse. Just like most history books, you cannot vilify your leader's. Imagine the bible if it had such stories explaining the unrest at the time, about Jerusalem being used as a Roman scapegoat for the Egyptian province that was earlier stripped of their last pharaoh and were being hopelessly impoverished.
In the USA, Great Depression, General Butler testified and stopped a military coup of the United States, Wall Street and many Senators involved, Prescott Bush, their family bank Brown Brothers. No one was prosecuted. And every decade or so a little more evidence and testimony goes missing or no longer exists. You can look up the 15 page statement "War is a Racket" http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm It's an old story, like you say, rinse and repeat.
So maybe we will blame these times on the evil farmers, the Amish or natural disasters. Whatever we blame it on or label it, I am sure it will be propaganda to fit the agenda.
"The Global Collapse" will be it's name
How 'bout (with apologies to Gibbon, Toynbee and Spengler): The Decline and Fall of the Anglo-American Empire, with economic causes taking on more even importance than in prior cases of collapse.
history is written by those who control the writing of it. it won't matter that much in the future since the goal is to eliminate most of the world population and you had better believe me, that the people whose idea this is, have absolutely no compunction with doing such. so future history won't mean much because no one will be able to read it. you have to understand, that the end of the united states is nearing , mainly because we are no longer needed. our usage is unnecessary very soon.
Historically speaking, you are correct.
I would point out that every letter ever published on ZH, all comments included, would proabably fit on a single DVD. Kind of hard to re-write history with so many copies of the daily unfolding floating around.
Regards,
Cooter
hey, that is actually a really great idea. I wonder if the Tylers could come up with something...
Yes, that would be great. The Mises Institute periodically converts the entire site into a torrent of a couple of hundred gigs. ZH should do the same, a complete archive that we can all download safely and quickly.
wget -r...
hey man, we are all terrorist now. we think on our own. we have our own ideas. we express them in a public forum. we discuss these issues and more. we are the modern terrorist. so in answer to your statement, one might conclude that one day very soon, the thought police will go around arresting those of us who walk too close to truth.....
@ Drifter,
Sadly yes on all counts, It is all, in the end, a population problem.
Unfortunatly they did not think it through.
6 Billion less means economic armadagon but I guess if you have the Gold you make the rules to the plebs that remain.
Sort of Morlocks and Eloi ending.
There is an alternative ending but that has yet to be written by men and women of clear mind.
I might add that the problems of England are not much different from the Days of Louis XVI. The Fuckers just don't get it. They, the young, have no Life which is their "bread" and all they want is the real crooks to be brought to Jail.
add it up.
Cost of the Riots =10 million pounds
Cost to those Kids from the Pig men =10 trillion pounds and counting.
who is in Jail ?????
UN Agenda 21, the coming division into Morlocks and Eloi.
One problem with the "world currency first" plan is that the travails of the Euro are showing that monetary union of disparate polities without governmental union just isn't going to work.
to make the world ready for world government.
That would imply a triumph of order over disorder. I think we get disorder before there could ever be one world government.
If that is true, one must point out that "taking down" the most powerful military empire in history will carry with it many unintended side effects.
Lack of Pop Tarts?
Popo,@12:45
I do not forsee the U S Military EVER being taken down, (short of total Global Nuclear War), then it won't make a diddly.
Not as long as there are Subs, numerous (way more than we will ever know)and ICBM's, and the #1 reason for never being taken down, I say is as old as mankind itself.
Self Preservation......................before they (Mil Leaders) allowed that, they would GO CHAVEZ on TPTB.( IMHO)
i'm sure you won't be worried. israel will be right there to assimilate the MIC.
I think you're wrong about that. The plan for world gov is for the US to be the enforcement arm. Most of it is already in place. When the UN said attack Libya, Obama just did as he was told.
one might conclude that our military is just about used up now. so who is next in line. china? they control china too , you know...........besides the chinks have many more slaves to fill the ranks.........our ranks have suffered due to population control mechanisms such as abortion. you don't think for one minute that abortion is about some silly idea about a woman's right to choose do you?
Make up your own facts, much?
Facts? Facts can play no role in that self-important youngster's ramblings. China has limited couples to one child and The Lord only knows how many baby girls have been killed at birth. Evil comes in all forms: Commie Dictatorships and "High Plains Drifter" Momma's Boys...
So you are a racist, sexist, paranoid person. Thanks, that's about all I needed to know.
High Plains I have watched and admired your comments for a long time. I believe that the United states is really all there is left. It gives me the smallest trembling hope in my heart because I know that this is the last stand. We are the only place where the gun owners are still able to stand..... I guess us and Switzerland. but when I see you standing there with your big machine gun I guess you know that too.
End the Fed, hang the traitors
you know what the real problem with us is miss? it is not that we are free, but many of the sheep here , think they are free. the mind is a strong weapon. when it thinks something , even though it is not true, it is a bulwark against their plans. it is one of the many unwanted side effects of this country that developed over the years. they perhaps had no choice but to let it run its course. another unintended consequence is that wascally second ammendment. if we were already disarmed by "legal" means, etc, we would already be gone , as a nation. the only damn thing that is slowing them down here is that we think we are free when we are not and we are armed to the teeth. jefferson installed that second ammendment after the first because he knew these sons of bitches just like the back of his hand.........matter of fact, most of the founding fathers knew who ran things even back then.....but , you see, we had no complete financial control synched in yet, so they could speak more freely then as well as acting in a more nationalistic manner. nationalism and race is the bane of these sons of bitches and is something they endeavor to inculcate in their people while at the same time destroying it in other cultures. since whitey has the most brain power of the goy nations, he is the one with the target on his back, because it is he, who has the power to destroy these pricks once and for all and they know this all too well.............
true story kind of an illustrative, anecdotal tip of my hat to you high plains.
local health clinic with medical and dental services ,, established by muslims, where 5 different languages are spoken and every race and creed work............. in a large city of course, where else? right> Black, yellow, brown, white, muslim, hindu, Christian, but the directors of medical and dental? white Christians. just sayin.
Nassem Taleb's turkey story should apply here. Everything is fine until it isn't When have all these conditions existed in such great amounts before:
1. Every country has too much debt
2. As a country, assuming normal distribution - everyone has too much debt
3. High unemployment - everywhere - 99 monthers fall off into welfare
5. Lack of leadership
6. Moral decay - moral relativism rules
7. Fear
Survivorship bias is a bitch -
Cockroaches can write?
They'll write better than the blue-green algae.
That's not quite true. History is written by the posterity of the survivors, which is different.
Long-john,
The owners of the printing presses, are the ones who filter and edit the survivor/authors books, before they are printed. HHEELLLLLOOO?!
Depression? Who cares! Mitt Romney is here to stand up for big corporations! If corporate profits and the S&P keep going up everything will alright! /sarc
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/13/are-corporations-people/
left, right up down, democrat, republican libertarian. it doesn't matter. they are all in on it..............such is corruption in this land. even ron paul. the situation in iowa this weekend reminds me of a circus atmosphere and it in many ways is exactly that. the place is full of clowns talking here and there , spewing lies and the joke, i am sorry to say is on us........and the people who own us know this all too well. it is sickening to watch and to notice. but to really see it, you have to be awake. many in iowa do not see it obviously.
Iowa: Send in the clowns. Don't bother, they're here
It's always easiest to blame circumstances on the always elusive and enigmatic "THEM".
What's happening can also be blamed on billions of humans acting on their base instincts of fear and greed. Some things only change on an evolutionary time scale.
the problem is tribal at its core. one tribe wants to control the world and has dreamed this dream for 3000 years. there is a reason for everything that happens these days. one of their goals is to eliminate 5/6th of the world population as indicated on the georgia guidestones etc. too many say that everything would work out if we just had the kind of people in office that would do it. this has always been one big lie. old man rothschild said in the late 1700's that it doesn't matter who is a leader of a country if the rothschild cartel controls the money systems. politics is a joke and always was a joke. the founding fathers warned us about these people but they intrigued here as they have always done and this is one of the things they are good at. too many say yes to their money and are cheaply bought off. the system is broken and cannot be fixed. sometimes a nation must take out the trash and do some internal cleaning. this is one of those times. we do it or we lose. no buts about it.
That's a cartoon, not reality. Not every German in WW2 wanted to dominate the world. As usual, there was a group within the country. Not all Japanese wanted to take over the US. And when the war ended, contrary to rumors on the other side, US citizens did not turn everyone into slaves.
Your missing the point. The average person doesn't want to rule the world. It is the extreme, I am better then everyone else, I have the means, power and knowledge that makes me better to pillage rape and rule the world as I see fit. It is the mantra of the globalist Oligarchs.
The globalists believe in Social Darwinism. They want a world of few people where they can roam the world free, with life extention technologies and the plebs are their to serve them only until they arent even needed anymore. It sounds crazy yes, but these "elite" do not believe in the expansion and greatness of humanity, they believe in the greatness of themselves.
The average person can not even comprehend the evil nature of these people. Its the kind of person that wishes they could come back as a virus to solve overpopulation. Think weaponized airborne ebola.
Prince Philip 1988
" I must confess that I am tempted to ask for reincarnation as a particularly deadly virus."
i keep telling them they have absolutely no idea who they are dealing with. sometimes it seems like it falls on deaf ears. they are very close now. they can taste it. one can only hope by some way that their plans are somehow corrupted. for the good of humanity, for the good of the united states and for the good of white western european culture that may well be extinct, (if they have their way) in a very few short decades perhaps.......maybe even sooner. but they think they are smart and they know what it is truely all about. yep, the enemy is one. the enemy thinks as one. we think as many. the enemy moves as one. we move as many. we are many and they are few, yet they are winning........is there anything that any of you don't understand about such a statement?
speaking of viruses and plagues, it would not surprise me one bit if the generators of and the inventors of such things are the same people , or the same type of people vis a vis, the same tribe of people who run the banking system today. there was much discussion in the middle ages about just how the black plagues were spread....hmmm
you keep telling yourself that. its all one gig cartoon. yep......once upon a time, there would be many who would understand what i am talking about but these days, those who truely understand are few and far between. why is it do you think that whites are seperated into left and right , socialist and conservative and all of this nonsense? together you stand and divided you fall, no? why is it they opened the flood gates in 1965 and let in all these non white peoples here , which if the founding fathers knew about it, they would turn over in their graves..
listen to what this man, a former jew, tells you. here is a apostate jew telling the world what they are doing and what is truely going on. you would do well to hear him out and listen to him for he speaks the truth...........
http://www.realzionistnews.com/?p=649
That dude's a little, ah, spooky, but not in a scary way. More of a he's-free-to-reproduce kind of way.
Funny. I wonder if that crazy guy has ever done an honest days work in his life? The outfit screams, no...
HP: It is in every way like a junkie/addict. Either we quit the drug/fiat money which is very painful and feels like you are dying. Then you get through it and feel better and go on to a productive life........... OR you just continue the dope and you die on the streets with nothing, not even your soul.
I am ready for the pain
The soul is renewed at the moment of salvation through Jesus Christ, regardless of the monetary system of the day!
You appear new here, so perhaps I can help bring you up to speed:
1. You are entirely correct with regard to billions of humans acting out base instincts that have developed over eons of evolutionary pressure.
2. You are entirely incorrect if you don't understand that the elusive "THEM" are taught from the great books, and know oft-quoted phrases commonly attributed to positive moral conduct, but use them as road maps for control, not enlightened guidance. Let us consider two:
Now, what does that mean to the common person? Why, we'll organize, we'll fight to change the system! (Que CogDis.) But what does it really mean to those in charge? Well, the proof is in the pudding, isn't it? See any "change", or do you see further ratcheting of control?
Again, what does this mean to the common man vs what does it mean to a banker? The banker knows he can enslave the people by cultivating certain vices (avarice, envy, sloth) - gee, it sounds like our 'credit financed consumer ecomomy' doesn't it?. Even better, through a central bank, they can corrupt gov't by enabling politicians to bride consituents with their own money (taxes+sovereign debt), and then use the power of government to enforce these self-same vices to further enrich themselves.
The elusive them aren't brilliant, they're not even conspiratorial. What they really are is directed - they focus on maximizing return & control based on some very rudimentary principles. Until you understand this, you will continue to be confused by events. Once you do understand it, making your way through life is pretty darn simple. You know where to invest, you know where to place your energies, and you know how to avoid dead-end 'causes'.
Your condescending tone speaks more than your words ever could.
Decon:
You would do well to heed the words of this old-timer here who knows more than enough to warrant the condescension. Prov.13:18 Poverty and shame shall be to him that refuseth instruction: but he that regardeth reproof shall be honoured.
The fact that you think you know something shows just how little you actually know. Age does not equate wisdom or even knowledge. I'm sorry you missed the point of life. Better luck next time.
Ironically B9K9 and I have both been here the same time.
There are a lot of commentors here at ZH that seem to have fallen into the conspiratorial syndrome, whether it involves the Rothchilds or jews or oligarchs or some mysterious, poorly defined group that are contolling things with the end result their predetermined outcome. It's nothing new, people have postulated these ideas since the beginning. To me it smacks of "group think". It's easy for any of us to fall into and can be difficult to avoid.
I think a more plausible explanation is the collective result of the worlds population acting on base instincts in their own self interest.
Obviously some individuals or groups of individuals are able to affect change on a larger scale than other groups or individuals but I don't see the evidence for the conspiratorial genesis of a NWO.
Also, I don't heed, warrant or othewise tolerate condescension from anybody.
WOW - REALLY? Is "conspiratorial syndrome" the new epithet casually tossed at people to immediately discredit them like "conspiracy theorist" has been so thoroughly and successfully used for - until only quite recently. UMMM....let's see....FAIL...especially in these parts.
Point A.
Point B - trying to discredit someone who took time and effort to express a well thought out, expressed, and likely researched, opinion with a simple dismissal of "condescending". This is simply thought police tactics, and unbecoming of a ZHer, in my opinion, of course.
And, boy o boy I could really take some time and take apart how your statements make it clear that you are either an A) Victim of Mind Control , B) A would be but not skillful enough for this forum mind controller or C) Just another amongst the Billions of Self Deluded Ones (who self delude that everything is OK and not being directed for ill against humanity in spite of the ever mounting untold piles of evidence to the contrary literally strewn across the landscape) and by the aggregate (in)actions of so many Self Deluded so they Feel Better About the World Ones rather than speaking facing and dealing with truth (or something far closer to it than mainstream thinking currently available, at least) people we thereby as a disorganized mass of humanity are in this unbelieveably bad clusterfuck we are all in....thanks to billions of people like you who not only don't appear to have a clue but take it upon themselves to enforce a "normalcy biased" viewpoint that leads to our collective demise....
but I think I've said enough and I've got more important things to spend my time on. Thank you. Over and out.
While I appreciate you taking the time to respond articulately to the above poster, keep in mind that you're yelling at the ADL and the only law they know is brutality to the goy. Only they would equate well defined notions such as jews or the Rothschild family with "mysterious" groups. It's just more 1984 doublespeak from idiots that don't know the rest of us are lying in wait for the big show. The game we're fighting now is 12 million vs 7 billion. Take heart, friend.
It's all good. They already lost. Fulford and the aliens said so.
Excellent comment.
Regards,
Cooter
oh yeah..Romney.. Mr. Socialized healthcare himself.. no fucking way; RINO alert!
Or perhaps The Greater Depression.
The rigged game of 'the market' might not be showing it, but the destruction of the concept of money has destroyed production, and there is no concept of property rights anywhere in the world. The rest is all cryin'.
The Krugman Depression
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/12/krugman-calls-for-more-riots/
In the future history books of the period. It will be called the Dark Ages 2.
"I dont know what weapons World War Three, but in World War Four people will use sticks and stones"
Albert Einstein
Ive got some really really pointy sticks about 30"long that travel really really fast and make absolutly no noise and have these really cool razor blade thingys on them. I also have a few stones made of a real heavy rock that comes out of the end of a white mans thunderstick. So sorry Albert -charcoal, sulfur and saltpeter even (urine in a pinch)can be made at home. Dry it in a cylindrical form with a hole in it increasing the surface area and you get a faster burn rate, thats were your E=mass X Velocity shit comes in homey. changed that theory forever we don't have to be goin all Neanderthal.
Better start saving your urine now and experimenting with it. I'm not sure it's all that straghtforward to make black powder out of it.
(heh, heh)
"The Great Keynesian Collapse"
I liked "Obamarama"
it is a depression offset more at staggered by QW to be within the year much worse than a great depression.
So what term is worse than great depression.
mother in-law moving in with us?
sounds like the typical central banking insider setup to sheer the sheep again......
and butcher them for a feast.
Well, like they say: You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once.
'transitory' depression
This depression will be known as the Mother of All Depressions. Brace for Impact!
What's wrong with these blind monkeys................. three quarters of negative growth, is THEIR definition of a recession.
We never came out of a recession, and Iwould argue by virtue of the UE Rate, and GDP lack of growth rates, we are,have been, in a Depression.....
Only a propaganda minister, or a puppet,agent provocateurs, for the regime can say these things........
When the sheeple are smarter than the SO called elite Econs, you know there's crap in their Depends.
We have been in a pile of feces since '08.
Idiots.
Depends are pretty good at containment, but there is a limit to everything.
They're starting to leak toxic waste.
+5
Recession, depression... it's the same effin' thing. Stop acting like there's some sort of difference.
We stopped using the word "depression" out of "respect" for those who lived thru the 1930s recession.
Besides, a "recession" doesn't sound as scary or as bad as a "depression," right? It's all about appearances and perception.
Also notice how we no longer use the term "Panic"? It's now just a "pullback" or "bear market"... No need to "panic" the sheeple now, right? Again, appearance & perception.
Absolutely right, except ...
in the 30s, Recession was the big scary word, meaning an actual decline in output, and the word Depression - a mere dip in output without actually going negative - was coined instead to - as you correctly say as propaganda - soothe the masses.
Of course it turned out not to be a mere dip, and the word Depression stuck and came to mean a really, really BIG Recession. But that's not the way it started out.
Depends on your point of view, and the meanings of words for such slippery, abstract concepts will change over time as circumstances demand.
Comes with the territory in the Dismal Science.
what will all of the vacuum tubes think about S&P 400?
Yet the ny times pushing for more keynesian policy.....
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/business/economy/voices-faulting-gop-e...
lead salad,
Yep, because their Powned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!........................by the Cabal Of Satanica Pandemonium.
But but, but the Kenyan told us everything is ok because he promised us hope and change!
why is tyler not covering the quick emergence of the eurobond? this is huge news. it seems most believe this will stave off the debt crisis. tyler, whats up?????? what effect will this have on our pms????
The eurobond has been "quickly emerging" for the past two years (and we have covered it repeatedly). If and when it finally quickly emerged (in the past tense) we will cover it (again). We doubt the past tense will be applicable before Merkel's (failed) reelection.
Kito:
This is the issue of the generation. Will Europe overcome the linguistic differences, the cultural differences, and the flow of history itself to become the United States of Europe?
If no, then it's all kinds of chaos for Europe, and Germany--the most export dependent populace in the world--will lose more than anyone. As iseen recently here in the formerly AAA States, pride always comes before the fall.
If yes, then the center holds, to twist Yeats around. The mass of people avoid experiencing catastrophe, while the rest lose less than they would otherwise.
If the Germans decide to guarantee a bastard Eurobond it would delay the debt crisis and be great for PM I think. So go ahead and make your bets based on the belief Germany will bailout the PIGGS and France, and good luck with that...
And so the stark reality begins to set in. Frontrunning to the downside shall commence in 3...2...1
Extreme market volatiliy is here to stay as there are many sheep to shear.
Will a race begin of companies seeking to go private?
What response will we see by EM as the realization sets in that they are the last source feast by our bankster overlords?
Market realities are dark. Turning Japanese has gone global.