This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Recessionspotting: "You Are Here"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Now that even the likes of Joe LaSagna are starting to throw out the R-word about as casually as they did a 4% 2011 GDP target as recently as 2 months ago, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is pricing in the fact that post a few more historical BEA revisions, the prior two real GDP reads will end up having been, shockingly enough, negative, i.e., your garden variety recession. So where does that put us on a market performance continuum, for those wishing to extrapolate how much further stocks and, yes, bonds (because credit is and always has been a far better indicator of objective market reality) have to drop before we hit the proverbial floor. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, quite a bit lower: "Despite the recent decline in risk assets, we do not believe that recession is in the price. Exhibits 3 and 4 show the typical declines in developed market risk assets in recession. Compared to corrections in past recessions, S&P prices and corporate credit spreads would have more to go, though spreads are starting from a higher level than typically precedes recessions." What is startling is that should central planners lose all control (and with central bank intervention upon intervention, one can argue that should all artificial props be removed, the market really ought to plunge in a Great Depression-style tailspin), the drop from the April 29 peak to the bottom will be roughly 4 times greater... which means the S&P would hit the proverbial "S&P 400" which is the long-term target of the likes of some more popular skeptics such as Albert Edwards and Russell Napier. As for credit: watch out below.

Equities:

and Credit:

And completing the pain, again from Morgan Stanley:

Arguably if there were a recession next year the decline in risk assets would be larger than usual. Investors may be unsettled by two related factors. First, the limited policy options for policymakers. Conventional policy tools are near-exhausted in major developed economies. Moreover, there seems to be political, institutional and market obstacles to aggressive use of unconventional policy tools. Ultimately they may come – the bigger the crisis, the bigger the response – but they may only come after there are very significant asset market losses.

 

Second, a recession next year would increase deflation risks in developed economies. This is partly a matter of inadequate policy response. But the more important point is that the developed economies would enter recession with the lowest nominal GDP growth rate seen entering recession, so nominal GDP contraction would be a larger-than-usual threat. Falling nominal GDP with elevated debt levels is the deadly debt-deflation combination of the 1930s. We are not forecasting such an outcome, but it is a significant tail risk, and one that could lead to a larger-than-usual setback in risk assets.

Translation: we are on the verge of the biggest deflationary market collapse since the 1930s, which will, inevitably, be followed by the most powerful (read fiat dilutive) central bank response in history.

All those gloating that hyperinflation has not set in yet... give it a year.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:36 | 1557067 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Let's call this what it really is, an economic depression.

In the future when the books are written it will be called Great Depression II.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:44 | 1557076 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

perhaps you may think life will continue on like it always has , in our collective memories. but i say it will not. there is no future unless we make one.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:48 | 1557085 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

History books are written by survivors.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:51 | 1557094 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

the real purpose of all of this is to take down the united states. it is a pebble in the shoe. it must be removed to make the world ready for world government.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:07 | 1557123 css1971
css1971's picture

World currency first.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:54 | 1557166 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I predict that historians will refer to it as The Great Collapse. Or maybe a combination, like a movie title for a sequel, like GDII: The Great Collapse.

I like it.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:37 | 1557275 sabra1
sabra1's picture

or, Ma and Pa Kettle go Berserk After 5Th Eviction Notice>

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:38 | 1557277 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

The Great Collapse is more likely...

Or the Great Shakedown...

The Great Implosion...

The Great Freeze...

Who knows?

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/13/why-cash-is-not-king/ 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:44 | 1557480 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

The Great Shakedown, I like it.  But even though I am sure more than a few of us on this board will survive, we would be likely to have it called the Great Collapse.  Just like most history books, you cannot vilify your leader's.  Imagine the bible if it had such stories explaining the unrest at the time, about Jerusalem being used as a Roman scapegoat for the Egyptian province that was earlier stripped of their last pharaoh and were being hopelessly impoverished. 

In the USA, Great Depression, General Butler testified and stopped a military coup of the United States, Wall Street and many Senators involved, Prescott Bush, their family bank Brown Brothers.  No one was prosecuted.  And every decade or so a little more evidence and testimony goes missing or no longer exists.  You can look up the 15 page statement "War is a Racket" http://www.lexrex.com/enlightened/articles/warisaracket.htm  It's an old story, like you say, rinse and repeat.

So maybe we will blame these times on the evil farmers, the Amish or natural disasters.  Whatever we blame it on or label it, I am sure it will be propaganda to fit the agenda.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:08 | 1557500 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

"The Global Collapse" will be it's name

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:32 | 1557637 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

How 'bout (with apologies to Gibbon, Toynbee and Spengler): The Decline and Fall of the Anglo-American Empire, with economic causes taking on more even importance than in prior cases of collapse.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:39 | 1557279 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

history is written by those who control the writing of it. it won't matter that much in the future since the goal is to eliminate most of the world population and you had better believe me, that the people whose idea this is, have absolutely no compunction with doing such. so future history won't mean much because no one will be able to read it. you have to understand, that the end of the united states is nearing , mainly because we are no longer needed. our usage is unnecessary very soon. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:32 | 1557337 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Historically speaking, you are correct.

I would point out that every letter ever published on ZH, all comments included, would proabably fit on a single DVD. Kind of hard to re-write history with so many copies of the daily unfolding floating around.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:49 | 1557367 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

hey, that is actually a really great idea. I wonder if the Tylers could come up with something...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:11 | 1557502 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

Yes, that would be great. The Mises Institute periodically converts the entire site into a torrent of a couple of hundred gigs. ZH should do the same, a complete archive that we can all download safely and quickly.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 01:21 | 1558371 snowball777
snowball777's picture

wget -r...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:41 | 1557428 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

hey man, we are all terrorist now. we think on our own. we have our own ideas. we express them in a public forum. we discuss these issues and more. we are the modern terrorist. so in answer to your statement, one might conclude that one day very soon, the thought police will go around arresting those of us who walk too close to truth.....

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 00:03 | 1558281 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

@ Drifter,

Sadly yes on all counts, It is all, in the end, a population problem.

Unfortunatly they did not think it through.

6 Billion less means economic armadagon but I guess if you have the Gold you make the rules to the plebs that remain.

Sort of Morlocks and Eloi ending.

There is an alternative ending but that has yet to be written by men and women of clear mind. 

I might add that the problems of England are not much different from the Days of Louis XVI. The Fuckers just don't get it. They, the young,  have no Life which is their "bread" and all they want is the real crooks to be brought to Jail.

add it up.

Cost of the Riots =10 million pounds

Cost to those Kids from the Pig men =10 trillion pounds and counting.

who is in Jail ?????

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 10:10 | 1558647 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

UN Agenda 21, the coming division into Morlocks and Eloi.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 19:42 | 1557744 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

One problem with the "world currency first" plan is that the travails of the Euro are showing that monetary union of disparate polities without governmental union just isn't going to work.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:40 | 1557171 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 


to make the world ready for world government.

That would imply a triumph of order over disorder. I think we get disorder before there could ever be one world government. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:45 | 1557184 Popo
Popo's picture

If that is true, one must point out that "taking down" the most powerful military empire in history will carry with it many unintended side effects.   

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:14 | 1557236 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

Lack of Pop Tarts?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:54 | 1557442 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Popo,@12:45

I do not forsee the U S Military EVER being taken down, (short of total Global Nuclear War), then it won't make a diddly.

Not as long as there are Subs, numerous (way more than we will ever know)and ICBM's, and the #1 reason for never being taken down, I say is as old as mankind itself.

Self Preservation......................before they (Mil Leaders) allowed that, they would GO CHAVEZ on TPTB.( IMHO)

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 21:34 | 1558063 jomama
jomama's picture

i'm sure you won't be worried.  israel will be right there to assimilate the MIC. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:33 | 1557341 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I think you're wrong about that.  The plan for world gov is for the US to be the enforcement arm.  Most of it is already in place.  When the UN said attack Libya, Obama just did as he was told.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:43 | 1557430 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

one might conclude that our military is just about used up now. so who is next in line. china?  they control china too , you know...........besides the chinks have many more slaves to fill the ranks.........our ranks have suffered due to population control mechanisms such as abortion. you don't think for one minute that abortion is about some silly idea about a woman's right to choose do you?  

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:14 | 1557457 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture
  • 1945: 141,745,183
  • 2011: 311,955,000

Make up your own facts, much?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:56 | 1557542 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Facts? Facts can play no role in that self-important youngster's ramblings.  China has limited couples to one child and The Lord only knows how many baby girls have been killed at birth.  Evil comes in all forms:  Commie Dictatorships and "High Plains Drifter" Momma's Boys...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:54 | 1557567 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

So you are a racist, sexist, paranoid person.  Thanks, that's about all I needed to know.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:20 | 1557460 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

High Plains I have watched and admired your comments for a long time.  I believe that the United states is really all there is left.  It gives me the smallest trembling hope in my heart because I know that this is the last stand.  We are the only place where the gun owners are still able to stand..... I guess us and Switzerland.  but when I see you standing there with your big machine gun I guess you know that too.

End the Fed, hang the traitors

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:47 | 1557485 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

you know what the real problem with us is miss?  it is not that we are free, but many of the sheep here , think they are free. the mind is a strong weapon. when it thinks something , even though it is not true, it is a bulwark against their plans. it is one of the many unwanted side effects of this country that developed over the years. they perhaps had no choice but to let it run its course. another unintended consequence is that wascally second ammendment. if we were already disarmed by "legal" means, etc, we would already be gone , as a nation. the only damn thing that is slowing them down here is that we think we are free when we are not and we are armed to the teeth. jefferson installed that second ammendment after the first because he knew these sons of bitches just like the back of his hand.........matter of fact, most of the founding fathers knew who ran things even back then.....but , you see, we had no complete financial control synched in yet, so they could speak more freely then as well as acting in a more nationalistic manner. nationalism and race is the bane of these sons of bitches and is something they endeavor to inculcate in their people while at the same time destroying it in other cultures. since whitey has the most brain power of the goy nations, he is the one with the target on his back, because it is he, who has the power to destroy these pricks once and for all and they know this all too well.............

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:03 | 1557584 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

true story kind of an illustrative, anecdotal  tip of my hat to you high plains.

local health clinic  with medical and dental services ,, established by muslims, where 5 different languages are spoken  and every race and creed work............. in a large city of course, where else? right> Black, yellow, brown, white, muslim, hindu, Christian, but the directors of medical and dental?  white Christians.  just sayin.  

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:17 | 1557243 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Nassem Taleb's turkey story should apply here.  Everything is fine until it isn't  When have all these conditions existed in such great amounts before:

1. Every country has too much debt

2. As a country, assuming normal distribution - everyone has too much debt

3. High unemployment - everywhere - 99 monthers fall off into welfare

5. Lack of leadership

6. Moral decay - moral relativism rules

7. Fear

Survivorship bias is a bitch -

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:23 | 1557325 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Cockroaches can write?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:16 | 1557459 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

They'll write better than the blue-green algae.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:31 | 1557415 Pizza spaghetti...
Pizza spaghetti and mandolino's picture

That's not quite true. History is written by the posterity of the survivors, which is different.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 22:04 | 1558119 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Long-john,  

The owners of the printing presses, are the ones who filter and edit the survivor/authors books, before they are printed. HHEELLLLLOOO?!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:50 | 1557090 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Depression? Who cares! Mitt Romney is here to stand up for big corporations! If corporate profits and the S&P keep going up everything will alright! /sarc

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/13/are-corporations-people/ 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:54 | 1557100 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

left, right up down, democrat, republican libertarian. it doesn't matter. they are all in on it..............such is corruption in this land. even ron paul. the situation in iowa this weekend reminds me of a circus atmosphere and it in many ways is exactly that. the place is full of clowns talking here and there , spewing lies and the joke, i am sorry to say is on us........and the people who own us know this all too well. it is sickening to watch and to notice. but to really see it, you have to be awake. many in iowa do not see it obviously. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:37 | 1557168 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Iowa: Send in the clowns. Don't bother, they're here

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:14 | 1557234 decon
decon's picture

It's always easiest to blame circumstances on the always elusive and enigmatic "THEM".

What's happening can also be blamed on billions of humans acting on their base instincts of fear and greed.  Some things only change on an evolutionary time scale.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:35 | 1557274 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

the problem is tribal at its core. one tribe wants to control the world and has dreamed this dream for 3000 years.  there is a reason for everything that happens these days. one of their goals is to eliminate 5/6th of the world population as indicated on the georgia guidestones etc. too many say that everything would work out if we just had the kind of people in office that would do it. this has always been one big lie.  old man rothschild said in the late 1700's that it doesn't matter who is a leader of a country if the rothschild cartel controls the money systems. politics is a joke and always was a joke. the founding fathers warned us about these people but they intrigued here as they have always done and this is one of the things they are good at.  too many say yes to their money and are cheaply bought off. the system is broken and cannot be fixed. sometimes a nation must take out the trash and do some internal cleaning. this is one of those times. we do it or we lose. no buts about it. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:41 | 1557281 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That's a cartoon, not reality. Not every German in WW2 wanted to dominate the world. As usual, there was a group within the country. Not all Japanese wanted to take over the US. And when the war ended, contrary to rumors on the other side, US citizens did not turn everyone into slaves. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:05 | 1557306 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Your missing the point.  The average person doesn't want to rule the world. It is the extreme, I am better then everyone else, I have the means, power and knowledge that makes me better to pillage rape and rule the world as I see fit. It is the mantra of the globalist Oligarchs.

The globalists believe in Social Darwinism.  They want a world of few people where they can roam the world free, with life extention technologies and the plebs are their to serve them only until they arent even needed anymore.  It sounds crazy yes, but these "elite" do not believe in the expansion and greatness of humanity, they believe in the greatness of themselves.  

The average person can not even comprehend the evil nature of these people. Its the kind of person that wishes they could come back as a virus to solve overpopulation. Think weaponized airborne ebola.

Prince Philip 1988

" I must confess that I am tempted to ask for reincarnation as a particularly deadly virus."

 


 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:38 | 1557424 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

i keep telling them they have absolutely no idea who they are dealing with. sometimes it seems like it falls on deaf ears. they are very close now. they can taste it. one can  only hope by some way that their plans are somehow corrupted. for the good of humanity, for the good of the united states and for the good of white western european culture that may well be extinct, (if they have their way) in a very few short decades perhaps.......maybe even sooner.  but they think they are smart and they know what it is truely all about. yep, the enemy is one. the enemy thinks as one. we think as many. the enemy moves as one. we move as many. we are many and they are few, yet they are winning........is there anything that any of you don't understand about such a statement?

 

speaking of viruses and plagues, it would not surprise me one bit if the generators of and the inventors of such things are the same people , or the same type of people vis a vis, the same tribe of people who run the banking system today. there was much discussion in the middle ages about just how the black plagues were spread....hmmm

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:10 | 1557311 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

you keep telling yourself that.  its all one gig cartoon. yep......once upon a time, there would be many who would understand what i am talking about but these days, those who truely understand are few and far between. why is it do you think that whites are seperated into left and right , socialist and conservative and all of this nonsense? together you stand and divided you fall, no? why is it they opened the flood gates in 1965 and let in all these non white peoples here , which if the founding fathers knew about it, they would turn over in their graves..

listen to what this man, a former jew, tells you. here is a apostate jew telling the world what they are doing and what is truely going on. you would do well to hear him out and listen to him for he speaks the truth...........

 

 

 

http://www.realzionistnews.com/?p=649

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:28 | 1557517 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That dude's a little, ah, spooky, but not in a scary way. More of a he's-free-to-reproduce kind of way.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:57 | 1557570 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Funny.  I wonder if that crazy guy has ever done an honest days work in his life?  The outfit screams, no...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:51 | 1557487 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

HP:  It is in every way like a junkie/addict.  Either we quit the drug/fiat money which is very painful and feels like you are dying.  Then you get through it and feel better and go on to a productive life........... OR you just continue the dope and you die on the streets with nothing, not even your soul. 

I am ready for the pain

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:02 | 1557583 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

The soul is renewed at the moment of salvation through Jesus Christ, regardless of the monetary system of the day!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:05 | 1557296 B9K9
B9K9's picture

You appear new here, so perhaps I can help bring you up to speed:

1. You are entirely correct with regard to billions of humans acting out base instincts that have developed over eons of evolutionary pressure.

2. You are entirely incorrect if you don't understand that the elusive "THEM" are taught from the great books, and know oft-quoted phrases commonly attributed to positive moral conduct, but use them as road maps for control, not enlightened guidance. Let us consider two:

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

Now, what does that mean to the common person? Why, we'll organize, we'll fight to change the system! (Que CogDis.) But what does it really mean to those in charge? Well, the proof is in the pudding, isn't it? See any "change", or do you see further ratcheting of control?

There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation ... A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury.

Again, what does this mean to the common man vs what does it mean to a banker? The banker knows he can enslave the people by cultivating certain vices (avarice, envy, sloth) - gee, it sounds like our 'credit financed consumer ecomomy' doesn't it?. Even better, through a central bank, they can corrupt gov't by enabling politicians to bride consituents with their own money (taxes+sovereign debt), and then use the power of government to enforce these self-same vices to further enrich themselves.

The elusive them aren't brilliant, they're not even conspiratorial. What they really are is directed - they focus on maximizing return & control based on some very rudimentary principles. Until you understand this, you will continue to be confused by events. Once you do understand it, making your way through life is pretty darn simple. You know where to invest, you know where to place your energies, and you know how to avoid dead-end 'causes'.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:32 | 1557338 decon
decon's picture

Your condescending tone speaks more than your words ever could.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:22 | 1557509 Miss anthrope
Miss anthrope's picture

Decon:

You would do well to heed the words of this old-timer here who knows more than enough to warrant the condescension.  Prov.13:18 Poverty and shame shall be to him that refuseth instruction: but he that regardeth reproof shall be honoured. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:01 | 1557581 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

The fact that you think you know something shows just how little you actually know.  Age does not equate wisdom or even knowledge.  I'm sorry you missed the point of life.  Better luck next time.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 19:56 | 1557778 decon
decon's picture

Ironically B9K9 and I have both been here the same time. 

There are a lot of commentors here at ZH that seem to have fallen into the conspiratorial syndrome, whether it involves the Rothchilds or jews or oligarchs or some mysterious, poorly defined group that are contolling things with the end result their predetermined outcome.  It's nothing new, people have postulated these ideas since the beginning.  To me it smacks of "group think".  It's easy for any of us to fall into and can be difficult to avoid.

I think a more plausible explanation is the collective result of the worlds population acting on base instincts in their own self interest.  

Obviously some individuals or groups of individuals are able to affect change on a larger scale than other groups or individuals but I don't see the evidence for the conspiratorial genesis of a NWO.

Also, I don't heed, warrant or othewise tolerate condescension from anybody.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 00:44 | 1558327 Doom Pornographer
Doom Pornographer's picture

WOW - REALLY?  Is "conspiratorial syndrome" the new epithet casually tossed at people to immediately discredit them like "conspiracy theorist" has been so thoroughly and successfully used for - until only quite recently.  UMMM....let's see....FAIL...especially in these parts.

Point A.

Point B - trying to discredit someone who took time and effort to express a well thought out, expressed, and likely researched, opinion with a simple dismissal of "condescending".  This is simply thought police tactics, and unbecoming of a ZHer, in my opinion, of course.

And, boy o boy I could really take some time and take apart how your statements make it clear that you are either an A) Victim of Mind Control , B) A would be but not skillful enough for this forum mind controller or C) Just another amongst the Billions of Self Deluded Ones (who self delude that everything is OK and not being directed for ill against humanity in spite of the ever mounting untold piles of evidence to the contrary literally strewn across the landscape) and by the aggregate (in)actions of so many Self Deluded so they Feel Better About the World Ones rather than speaking facing and dealing with truth (or something far closer to it than mainstream thinking currently available, at least) people we thereby as a disorganized mass of humanity are in this unbelieveably bad clusterfuck we are all in....thanks to billions of people like you who not only don't appear to have a clue but take it upon themselves to enforce a "normalcy biased" viewpoint that leads to our collective demise....

but I think I've said enough and I've got more important things to spend my time on.  Thank you. Over and out.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 01:13 | 1558363 marsdefIAnCe
marsdefIAnCe's picture

While I appreciate you taking the time to respond articulately to the above poster, keep in mind that you're yelling at the ADL and the only law they know is brutality to the goy.  Only they would equate well defined notions such as jews or the Rothschild family with "mysterious" groups.  It's just more 1984 doublespeak from idiots that don't know the rest of us are lying in wait for the big show.  The game we're fighting now is 12 million vs 7 billion.  Take heart, friend.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 03:13 | 1558436 Doom Pornographer
Doom Pornographer's picture

It's all good.  They already lost.  Fulford and the aliens said so.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:33 | 1557340 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Excellent comment.

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:25 | 1557326 UGrev
UGrev's picture

oh yeah..Romney.. Mr. Socialized healthcare himself.. no fucking way; RINO alert!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:47 | 1557081 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

it will be called Great Depression II

Or perhaps The Greater Depression.

The rigged game of 'the market' might not be showing it, but the destruction of the concept of money has destroyed production, and there is no concept of property rights anywhere in the world.  The rest is all cryin'.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:58 | 1557106 css1971
css1971's picture

In the future history books of the period. It will be called the Dark Ages 2.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:23 | 1557154 Richardk888
Richardk888's picture

"I dont know what weapons World War Three, but in World War Four people will use sticks and stones"

Albert Einstein

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:04 | 1557175 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Ive got some really really pointy sticks about 30"long that travel really really fast and make absolutly no noise and have these really cool razor blade thingys on them. I also have a few stones made of a real heavy rock that comes out of the end of a white mans thunderstick. So sorry Albert -charcoal, sulfur and saltpeter even (urine in a pinch)can be made at home. Dry it in a cylindrical form with a hole in it increasing the surface area and you get a faster burn rate, thats were your E=mass X Velocity shit comes in homey. changed that theory forever we don't have to be goin all Neanderthal.  

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:21 | 1557462 Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

Better start saving your urine now and experimenting with it. I'm not sure it's all that straghtforward to make black powder out of it.

(heh, heh)

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:41 | 1557177 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

"The Great Keynesian Collapse"

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:16 | 1557240 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

I liked "Obamarama"

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:40 | 1557069 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

it is a depression offset more at staggered by QW to be within the year much worse than a great depression.

 

So what term is worse than great depression.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:39 | 1557280 sabra1
sabra1's picture

mother in-law moving in with us?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:43 | 1557072 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

sounds like the typical central banking insider setup to sheer the sheep again......

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:46 | 1557078 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

and butcher them for a feast.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:16 | 1557143 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well, like they say:  You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin him once.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:44 | 1557074 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

'transitory' depression

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:46 | 1557079 H Reardon
H Reardon's picture

This depression will be known as the Mother of All Depressions. Brace for Impact!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:48 | 1557080 DosZap
DosZap's picture

What's wrong with these blind monkeys................. three quarters of negative growth, is THEIR definition of a recession.

We never came out of a recession, and Iwould argue by virtue of the UE Rate, and GDP lack of growth rates, we are,have been, in a Depression.....

Only a propaganda minister, or a puppet,agent provocateurs, for the regime can say these things........

When the sheeple are smarter than the SO called elite Econs, you know there's crap in their Depends.

We have been in a pile of feces since '08.

Idiots.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:51 | 1557093 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Depends are pretty good at containment, but there is a limit to everything.

They're starting to leak toxic waste.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:07 | 1557124 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

+5

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:27 | 1557258 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Recession, depression... it's the same effin' thing. Stop acting like there's some sort of difference.

We stopped using the word "depression" out of "respect" for those who lived thru the 1930s recession.

Besides, a "recession" doesn't sound as scary or as bad as a "depression," right? It's all about appearances and perception.

 

Also notice how we no longer use the term "Panic"? It's now just a "pullback" or "bear market"... No need to "panic" the sheeple now, right? Again, appearance & perception.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:20 | 1557624 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Absolutely right, except ...

in the 30s, Recession was the big scary word, meaning an actual decline in output, and the word Depression - a mere dip in output without actually going negative -  was coined instead to - as you correctly say as propaganda - soothe the masses.

Of course it turned out not to be a mere dip, and the word Depression stuck and came to mean a really, really BIG Recession. But that's not the way it started out.

Depends on your point of view, and the meanings of words for such slippery, abstract concepts will change over time as circumstances demand.

Comes with the territory in the Dismal Science.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:47 | 1557082 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

what will all of the vacuum tubes think about S&P 400?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:47 | 1557083 lead salad
lead salad's picture

Yet the ny times pushing for more keynesian policy.....

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/business/economy/voices-faulting-gop-e...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:38 | 1557425 DosZap
DosZap's picture

lead salad,

Yep, because their  Powned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!........................by the Cabal Of Satanica Pandemonium.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:47 | 1557086 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

But but, but the Kenyan told us everything is ok because he promised us hope and change!

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:49 | 1557089 kito
kito's picture

why is tyler not covering the quick emergence of the eurobond? this is huge news. it seems most believe this will stave off the debt crisis. tyler, whats up?????? what effect will this have on our pms????

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:54 | 1557099 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

The eurobond has been "quickly emerging" for the past two years (and we have covered it repeatedly). If and when it finally quickly emerged (in the past tense) we will cover it (again). We doubt the past tense will be applicable before Merkel's (failed) reelection.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 15:06 | 1557395 jm
jm's picture

Kito:

This is the issue of the generation.  Will Europe overcome the linguistic differences, the cultural differences, and the flow of history itself to become the United States of Europe?

If no, then it's all kinds of chaos for Europe, and Germany--the most export dependent populace in the world--will lose more than anyone.  As iseen recently here in the formerly AAA States, pride always comes before the fall.

If yes, then the center holds, to twist Yeats around.  The mass of people avoid experiencing catastrophe, while the rest lose less than they would otherwise.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:12 | 1557604 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

If the Germans decide to guarantee a bastard Eurobond it would delay the debt crisis and be great for PM I think.  So go ahead and make your bets based on the belief Germany will bailout the PIGGS and France, and good luck with that...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 11:53 | 1557098 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

And so the stark reality begins to set in.  Frontrunning to the downside shall commence in 3...2...1

Extreme market volatiliy is here to stay as there are many sheep to shear.

Will a race begin of companies seeking to go private?

What response will we see by EM as the realization sets in that they are the last source feast by our bankster overlords?

Market realities are dark.  Turning Japanese has gone global.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:45 | 1557182 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Why would any company want to go public now?  No way in hell I would take mine public, just a bigger sheep to be sheered (herein lays the rub).

Can I make an initial public offering on the black market?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:00 | 1557108 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Lakshman from a week ago on recession risk

and the tick down in ECRI WLI

http://online.wsj.com/video/news-hub-us-default-an-economic-tipping-poin...

 

_________________________

visit Roubini's blog http://www.economonitor.com

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:09 | 1557121 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

Is the Fed really out of ammo or are they just telling us they are out of ammo?  The very talk of no future stimuli, has caused oil prices to plummet, which is what Ben wants.  The stage is being set for the next round.  IMO, falling oil prices will give Ben a potential green light to fire up his evil QE machine once again.  If the equity markets drop, the Fed will intervene (especially with TBTF banks like BofA on the ropes.)  Why would we expect anything less from Ben?  

Just because a dog promises not to chase a cat, doesn't mean he won't do it again if the opportunity presents itself.    

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:12 | 1557137 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Of course they are just "re-loading" for the next round of QE.

More fiscal stimulus "paid for" by Fed QE. There is no other option.

It's like in the old Superman re-runs when the villain runs out of bullets. But he keeps pulling the trigger anyway, then finally throws the gun at him.

The Fed is pulling the trigger on an empty revolver. Next, they throw the gun.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:27 | 1557332 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Anyone have a comment on this writers opinion on how QE 3 plays out???

"The are no major economic, political, or social problems in the developed, industrialized world that threaten the 1% other than excess debt. The debt problem is not a real problem, but an abstract claim on present and future income (work) by the 1%. The system is so utterly clogged that is reaching a point of complete paralysis . We have entered the tumultuous and inevitable debt destruction period that is often the death knell of regimes. Deflation, hyperinflation, default and revolution are the usual outcomes. But there is another way.

The Big Finale

The New York Times recently reported on how banks were reducing the principal on thousands of performing loans by about 50% in exchange for small increases in interest rates and new, clean promissory notes, with no MERS involvement. As long as the Federal Reserve “adjusts” the reserve requirements for the bank to reflect half of the money that the bank created as “disappeared”, then for the bank, it’s no harm no foul. They are off the hook for the same amount that they reduced for the borrower, and the small adjustment in interest rate recaptures some of the lost future interest earnings from the smaller loan size.

This solution serves two absolutely critical functions for the banks and the 1% that control them. First, the banks morbid balance sheets are wiped clean, marked to market and made pure. No more zombie banks threatening the world. Second, it frees up vast amounts of consumer income to re-charge the economy, create jobs etc.

The second part of the QE3 will be the ‘public debt crisis’. Act I was the S&P downgrade and AIG (government owned) lawsuit against Bank of America which by a wild coincidence all happened on the same "Black Monday" as the European Central Bank beginning quantitative easing by purchasing Spanish and Italian bonds. Act II will see a few very large banks being ‘nationalised’ in both the US and Europe, (Bank of America and SocGen for example) and a massive mortgage principal reduction of about 50% will follow as the President can nationalise banks without congressional approval through the “orderly liquidation authority” or OLA provisions under Dodd-Frank. Act III will see the US $14 trillion, as well as the Italian, Spanish, UK, Japanese etc. public debt being halved in exchange for balanced budgets and reduced social spending. The $50 trillion or so in US unfunded liabilities will be wiped out in a new “social contract”. Some student loan and Third World debt forgiveness will be thrown in for the full Kumbaya effect.

All of this will emerge out of a new “Bretton Woods” type of agreement that will be followed like the World Cup, Dancing with the Stars, Eurovision, the Superbowl, and the rest of the circus events meant to keep the plebs entertained. The Euro, doomed to failure, will escape the fangs of a new dark age and emerge triumphant with the Ode to Joy playing in the background. Logic will overcome chaos and a new age of enlightened corporate slavery will begin. The only difference will be that the dollar will be replaced by a new reserve system that spreads ultimate control over more than one currency.

Barack Obama will emerge as the new Franklin Roosevelt, the reluctant revolutionary who saved the world. Prosperity will return and the holders of the dollar, euro and yen debt, while not avoiding a nasty haircut, will in exchange get a world willing once again to buy hand over fist again their oil and the products of their manufacturing base. All of this will take place in a massive drama worthy of Hollywood (because it actually will be written by Hollywood types), keeping the sheeple glued to their televisions, talk radio etc. They will cheer when it all finishes with the good guys winning, just as they did when Bin Laden was killed, and when “major combat operations” ended in Iraq.

Will the masses demand to know how banks can simply create and destroy money with a few clicks of a mouse? Will they insist on dismantling the Fed and halving the size of the Federal Government? Will they not rest until all their soldiers are brought home and the war mongers who started these conflicts brought to justice?

Unfortunately, no. They won't ask any questions that can’t be explained away by the talking head de jour on Fox or MSNBC and the charade will continue, the matrix intact, for another generation to try to dismantle."

http://www.activistpost.com/2011/08/what-qe3-will-look-like.html

 

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 10:38 | 1558696 Gyponolan
Gyponolan's picture

Does having a peek behind the wizard's curtain do much to improve our situation? I can say that my reading of this and other sites has allowed me to make some minor preparations, but I do not feel better.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:49 | 1557189 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

is the Fed really out of ammo or are they just telling us they are out of ammo

 

Nope, they are acknowledging that they're in trouble. Default operating procedure would be to stimulate to get to sustained growth as quickly as possible. There's very little margin for error with the enormous level of debt that the banks still have, not to mention the shrinking tax base to cover the Federal debt (and the downgrade proved that) and the Eurozone situation which has major implications for US banks and could drag US growth down. 

Their standard response has always been the Bazooka and helicopters with no hesitation. The only reason they held back is Biflation: the realization that yes, there's risk of deflation with all its consequences, but yes, there's risk of an impact on the cost of living, working and doing business from too much monetary stimulus. Check mate, baby. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:06 | 1557122 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Personally, I am quite fond of LaSagna, especially when paired with a very good Chianti.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:18 | 1557244 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

With Fava Beans?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:10 | 1557129 ben_bernanke
ben_bernanke's picture

I suppose America's biggest companies were posting record profits during the market collapse of the Great Depression?

The analogy makes no sense. It is, in fact, retarded.

Bears are going to get blown out so badly in the next decade, it's not even funny.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:25 | 1557155 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"Bears are going to get blown out so badly in the next decade, it's not even funny."

How?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:46 | 1557655 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

I think the poster meant "blown" not "blown out"

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:54 | 1557197 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There was no corporate welfare during the Great Depresison. Quite the opposite. The system was allowed to reset, to clear out failed business models, the excesses and misallocations of capital. Failure was permitted especially for Wall Street firms, hundreds of banks and all types of real economy businesses. 

The failure this time was allowing the stinking rot to take over the economy and choke out real competition, new ideas and new entrants. It is maladaptive and doomed. It's how aristocracies survive ie through cronyism, connections, politics and accidents of birth, not merit.

Darwinian forces could therefore take down not just a few businesses anymore, but the entire system. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:20 | 1557242 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

How anyone believes corporate profits are real or stable when managers refuse to buy their own crap is beyond my comprehension.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:00 | 1557210 r101958
r101958's picture

I guess what you are saying is that the bears will be blown out when the dow hits 20k right? That will be about the same time that bread costs $10 a loaf. nuff said.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:21 | 1557252 Lazlo Toth
Lazlo Toth's picture

Just remove the word out from the last sentence.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:15 | 1557611 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Tell your Mommy I said you can stay up an extra 1/2 hour tonight.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:16 | 1557136 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

"All those gloating that hyperinflation has not set in yet... give it a year."

Sorry Tyler with all due respect, but let's forget about hyperinflation for a while now shall we? We've seen millions of blog posts here (by guest commentators) and elsewhere calling for hyperinflation in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Now it's delayed till 2012? Then till 2015.

Why keep talking about it. This is like talking about the next great 20 year equity bull market. It's not going to happen for a while, maybe a long while.

Please, let it rest until we see actual evidence in the market, rather than predict it to happen in the next 12 month (or the next, or the next...). People are hoarding cash, they're paid negative interest rates and it doesn't stop them. This is anything but hyperinflationary. No hyperinflation in the history of mankind has been preceeded by people panicking and hoarding cash at -0.15% interest rats. None.

Speaking of... Anyone see Gonzalo Lira recently? Didn't he say CPI was going to explode to 8% annualized right about August/September 2011? Time he did a follow up on his hyperinflation forecasts.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:40 | 1557174 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Don't know about hyperinflation but my personal CPI meaning food, fuel, healthcare, tuition are easily up 8% for the year. So the state tells you official CPI up 3% and you take that as a fact, Right. I will give you an example, the price of a car battery. I would say it is a double in the last 4 years. Oh and tires are cheaper too, Not.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:50 | 1557190 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Energy and war are the only things that matter fucknut and (for now) the U.S. can continue to wage war for cheap energy.  When that ends, you will get your hyperinflation times a trillion.  Cheap energy (subsidized by the blood and taxes of joe six pack) is the only thing keeping the wolves at bay.  Good luck motherfucker.  You better hope the elite disarm north america (at all levels) before this happens.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:56 | 1557202 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We're already out of cheap energy. And they knew this day would come for 4 decades. The mistake was not adapting to that reality when we had the chance

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:43 | 1557360 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Oldy but goodie regarding energy independance:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

Regards,

Cooter

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:13 | 1557138 ben_bernanke
ben_bernanke's picture

If things are so bad for the banks, why is the TED spread lower than it was after the flash crash?

http://www.tradingfives.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/2ted.png

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:23 | 1557152 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Because the understanding is taking hold you are damned if you do and damned if you don't.  So lets just keep doing until we don't.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:07 | 1557307 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

A Hobson's choice is a free choice in which only one option is offered. As a person may refuse to take that option, the choice is therefore between taking the option or not; "take it or leave it". The phrase is said to originate with Thomas Hobson (1544–1631), a livery stable owner in Cambridge, England. To rotate the use of his horses, he offered customers the choice of either taking the horse in the stall nearest the door or taking none at all.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:58 | 1557204 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

THe markets have lost the function of price discovery: especially bonds. THe Fed openly admitted it was intervening to the tune of $7 billion daily. And it still is through QE light and ZIRP. So derivative indices are no reflection of the economy since markets are no longer free and motivated by the same incentive. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:19 | 1557621 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Because both rates our manipulated by CB's and the Global Bank Cartel that controls them.  Any other lay-up questions?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:19 | 1557145 tom
tom's picture

Well I think it's time to re-open the inflation vs deflation debate.

We got the stagflation that most of us here on ZH were expecting since QE2 launched. But what next?

I find myself moving into the deflation camp. Maybe I'm influenced by the mood of the day - this has been one powerful swing to deflation in the past few weeks.

But the bottom line issue here is that prolonged QE and fiscal stimulus failed to create domestic wage inflation, just like they failed in Japan. They created asset price inflation. They created commodity price inflation. They created developing-world wage inflation. But they absolutely failed to create domestic wage inflation, which is the only way they could have generated enough nominal GDP growth to repay themselves.

If QE had given us stagflation with at least a bit of wage inflation, my opinion would be different.

I don't dispute the likelihood of QE3. But it's going to appear what it is, a desperate repeat of a tactic that hasn't worked already twice in a row. Announcing QE3 is the same as announcing renewed contraction. I'm thinking QE3 just can't generate enough "hopium" to counteract this deflationary spiral. Looks to me like S&P 500 could soon be an optimistic name.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:36 | 1557165 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I think the biflation camp is closest to reality.  This is a difficult conundrum that we are facing. 

Our politics in this country only complicate matters, as both seem to cling to the belief of "free lunch" for their respective voting blocks.

Another user Pods said it best IMO that deflation is the problem and hyperinflation the TPTB medicine.  Unfortunately their medicine only exacerbates the problem as the inflation seemingly only occurs in needs and not wants or wages.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:49 | 1557186 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Count me in the deflation camp. The size of the debt bubble is degrees larger than ever before, and I just don't see how they can reflate it. When you include the derivitives in the debt picture, I saw a figure like $70 TRILLION dollars, but I don't think anyone really knows for sure just how large the number is. With all of these structured financial products hanging out there, two or three trillion shoved into a choked pipeline does nothing to inflate this bubble.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:52 | 1557194 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The "flation" debate is pointless.  Buying power, supply, and demand are all that matters, period.  I might have a pile of gold and need some ethanol.  However, if there is none to buy then it really does not matter does it?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:57 | 1557203 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Well, yeah, if you want to get all metaphysical and shit, we can come up with "what if" scenarios all day long.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:17 | 1557241 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"we can come up with "what if" scenarios all day long."

No shit, really, you mean just like the over 2 billion people that get up every day and wonder "if" they will actually eat?  Your intelligence is mind-boggling.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:01 | 1557492 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Are you a professor somewhere? I'm taking a shot in the dark here, but I'm guessing you're an academician of some sort.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 14:20 | 1559190 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Biotech - same difference these days.  People would be surprised how "academic" technical companies have become.  I look at google and my jaw drops. Their "campus" is great.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:12 | 1557221 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I think the biflation camp is closest to reality.

Thanks. Tip o the hat to ya. 

There are many ways to understand Biflation, here's one: Scylla and Charybdis. The Fed this week acknowledged that they're caught between the rock of deflation and the hard place of inflation. What took them so long? Because it's hard for traditional economists to understand or even believe that this was possible. They were applying old metrics and themes. But in a world of huge dollar imbalances the old relationships have broken down. And so we can have not hyper-inflation or hyper-deflation, but just a moderate amount of both, which can be just as killer. Worse, they're mutually reinforcing and exist in all the wrong places: assets like real estate and personal net worth are deflating while cost of living, working and doing business inflates. So margins keep getting squeezed and demand disintegrates. But unfortunately the cost structure does not come back into line with demand. That's because the scope of the problem is now global and the previous system (supply-side aka MMT) put an ocean of dollars out there in the world and offshored productive industry. There's more to it, but that's the nuts and bolts. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:10 | 1557225 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

Alisdair Macleod (of the clan Macleod?) at his London GATA speech on 8-6-11, says everything is already deflating, in sound money. We're not seeing it because fiat money printing is offsetting deflation. He uses gold as the proxy for sound money since there really is no other to use. Price of things are dropping priced in PMs. The printing presses are just going to have to run faster whenever the deflation is unmasked. But the PMs don't lie (much). 

Excellent article, but the pertinent graphs are at the end of the PDF speech transcript:  2011.08.06 GATA Speech.pdf (application/pdf Object)

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 14:22 | 1557319 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Hyperinflation is not caused by Government, directly.   It is caused by a loss of confidence in a currency and the ensuing increase in the velocity of money.

It will be when people no longer want their dollars and instead wants goods that we will have hyperinflation.

The gun is already loaded, there is plenty of money for this to happen and many different ways it can happen.

 

The currency has been destroyed, we will have hyperinflation, we just dont know when.

 

Deflationary headfake precedes hyperinflation.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:04 | 1557495 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

So it'll be just "pretend" deflation, then? What does that look like, exactly?

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:56 | 1557674 Waffen
Waffen's picture

it will look like Argintina.

 

btw Hyperinflation will feel a whole lot like Deflation.  The big difference is eventually most everyones debt gets wiped clean assuming you can hold out.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:36 | 1557164 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach is having a spat to the tune of $100s of millions with his former employer TCW and its parent company Societe Generale.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:43 | 1557180 kito
kito's picture

Tyler can u please link me to the articles that provide us with your insight as to the implications for the eurobond??

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:21 | 1557625 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I can help: Google, numb-nuts...

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:46 | 1557185 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

Financial Repression: We are already there.   Financial Repression – What is it and how does it silently steal from you. « Political Metals (PMs)

 

"There will be Blood" -- they will drink everybody's milk shake, one way trip to the malt shop. They will kill the USD as WRC when a substitute is ready.

 

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 12:56 | 1557201 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No shit, really? < sarc off > The big question for readers of this site is whether or not you will get fair value for your gold when the transition occurs.  I see lots of evidence that in the NWO "ownership" is a concept that must be fully destroyed before the transition can occur.  Herein lays the rub for the central planners.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:14 | 1557232 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The big question for readers of this site is whether or not you will get fair value for your gold when the transition occurs. 

Lol. Like asking if you get respect if you're holding a loaded gun. Gold vs confetti. 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:45 | 1557287 gwar5
gwar5's picture

With gold, if you have not planned ahead the window is closing.  Stop talking and start acting. 

More, as long as the Chinese, Indians, Saudis, and Russians consider gold as money, there will be fair market value for PMs, if one has the basic awareness to avoid the financial repression and capital controls of the West. 

NWO: Destroying the EU is the first step to abolishing the NWO. If they can't make that supranational entity work, noone will accept a global NWO by a sham UN and IMF. Riots are still ongoing and more to come. Central planners are public enemy #1 right now, and TPTB know it. "NWO" has become a slur.  They'll call it something else and try again later.

Hence, a fourth alternative to a single, new WRC, has energed as a possibility. Which is to have multiple reserve currencies running parallel, as was done in the 1920's. Then they let the weak ones fade out over time -- ie USD, Euro, etc.

Jim Rickards – Fourth Alternative Now to a Dollar Collapse • Silver Quotes

.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:16 | 1557231 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Aye, there the rub.

"the limited policy options for policymakers"

Substitue "government" for "policy makers".

The implication for aware individuals is that as the conventional options diminish or evaporate, more severe and unconventional options will be implemented.

 

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:19 | 1557239 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...hey! there is no ''future'' that will be written about this, it is already written. If revelation has not come upon you, fear not, it will, very shortly. This is the last generation and that will be perfectly clear to those that do not now know it. Everything is going to get exponentially worse and more acute, from quakes to plagues etc... to unconventional attacks etc... The market beast is one of many great and terrible prophetic fulfillments. Have no doubt about what we are now witnessing in the market, we all have watched the corruption work and we all know the end goal of this insane and delusional crowd, they will fail and destroy many of us. Fear not, stand fast and do no harm. The Mercy of our Father in Christ is sustaining in agreement.

http://bible.cc/matthew/24-21.htm

P.S. The storm(s) I saw just began to look fimiliar. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZazHqdNeXA

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:46 | 1557289 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

On the other hand, is it not possible that the Lilac Fairy, is standing in the wings right now, waiting her cue to come in en pointe, whisk away the evil of the day, put Wall Street to sleep for an 100 years, and search for Prince Desire to awaken the markets with a kiss and a new derivative, that allows the buyer, the seller and the broker to all make a profit on the same trade. Naturally, everybody lives happily ever after.

Hey, your version and mine are practically the same. Nice.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 16:04 | 1557451 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...lol, ''our version(s)''.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNK75M79aH4&feature=related

''The Truth is not a Choice'' is the only original thing I have ever come up with and could not find written anywhere in all of history. That was way back in 03 or 04, if I recall. Now, you need to think a bit harder my friend. If you can't agree that the Truth is not a choice, you are claiming dominion based on what? ...the fact that you do not know the walk on the wild side is not possible, Sugar Plum? lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QITJK8ExG-U  You have no case and you ain't no dancer. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWuXmfgXVxY Your offer is pathetic. I have no case based on my own claim, even the question ''is the Truth a Choice?'', it is merely the revelation of our agreement with what is risen before us.

...you will figure it out soon enough.

http://bible.cc/revelation/19-10.htm

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 03:28 | 1558445 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Of course, "The truth is not a choice," pal, but if my truth is at odds with your truth, whose truth prevails? Is your truth always unassailable? Unassailable because it's your truth? Where we agree, we agree. Where we disagree, you always carry the day.

I don't think so.

Anyway, it was nice of you to link The Nucracker and the dance of the Sugar Plum Fairy. The reference I used, however, was the Sleeping Beauty -- you know, the princess who pricks her finger and she and the whole kingdom fall asleep for 100 years. Prince Charming wakes her and her people up when he kisses her. You must have read that in Grimm's tales when you were a child.

We both may believe in God, but he obviously revealed himself differently to you and I.

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 11:11 | 1558770 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...eh, there is a deeper shade of soul in there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeFdiVijTwk Why you felt the need to offer ''at odds'', ''because it's your truth'' and ''you always carry the day'' is no mystery.

...actually it was not nice, you never cracked the nut, it just looked that way for you, which is good (no mystery) but, you did miss the parable. I avoided the sleeping bride, not Lou Reed. lol. Trying to explain image(s) of claims (false or true) and judgment at this point, well, we know Christ and that's good.

http://bible.cc/genesis/3-15.htm

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 14:20 | 1559191 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Sometimes you sound interesting, sometimes you don't. In any case, as a good Christian, I'm sure you will forgive me for not wanting to get into a Mexican standoff with you about which child's vision of Heaven is more accurate, yours or mine.

It's hard to look at the History of Western Civilization for the last 2000 years and see anything that distinguishes Christianity from any other religion, pagan or otherwise.

You'd be better advised to expel all traces of Christianity from your synapses and let the real God into your brainpan.

May the real Force be with you.

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 07:10 | 1560901 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

... Antichrist in the Black Hole. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNUr__-VZeQ

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 13:28 | 1557262 Dr. Hannibal Lecter
Dr. Hannibal Lecter's picture

Obamageddon.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 17:06 | 1557498 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I like that, but unfortunately this is bigger than Obama; this has been in the making for decades. He's at the wheel as we go off the cliff, though, and had the chance to turn us away, so it's not that far from the truth.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 18:18 | 1557617 Dadburnitpa
Dadburnitpa's picture

That's racist. Nothing's bigger than Obama and you know it.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 20:42 | 1557906 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

u b 1/2 right on that comment.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!