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Record EUR 'Longs' Suggest Caution Into Next Week

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Last week we discussed in detail the shifts in regimes and positioning in the FX markets - most notably relative to the EUR. CitiFX is out with a note today that extends our concern as their proprietary CitiFX Positioning Indicator shows a rise from a record short in EUR in mid-July to a record long by last week. The EUR buying has been broad based and not just concentrated against the USD, with investors covering short exposure on pairs such as EURAUD and EURCAD. The shift in positioning came as peripheral spreads tightened and US yields fell, implying that it was kick-started by the surge in expectations for Fed and ECB easing. With equity markets roughly steady in recent days and data flow still relatively weak, this leaves the impression that the continued shift in FX positioning has been more about momentum than improvement in sentiment. This suggests that FX markets may be pricing in a higher degree of confidence on easing (or signs thereof) at the Jackson Hole conference and later ECB meeting. Given that absolute positioning for EUR is now long, this sets a high bar for policymakers to exceed and suggests risks are skewed in favor of a reversal on disappointment with Chairman Bernanke and President Draghi.

CitiFX Positioning Indicator

 

Source: CitiFX

 


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Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Shorting fiat bitchez

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just don't bring up gold......the injuns are starting to get pissed!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment bullet
bullet's picture

camaro69z28

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Show the same data from 2008-2009.  We have been here before.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Cool......let's do it again!

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

The problem is there are two sets of books, Dark pools and us fools.  What we see as green and red numbers are just a display like neon lights in Las Vegas to get our attention.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:24 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Market Artiste Blues:

 

Well I quit my job,
And spent a year in bed,
Decided I'd take up online trading instead.
Got myself a notebook
Margin account:first rate
5 minutes work oughta make me a saint.

Baby I'm a market artiste.
And maybe I deserve to get pissed.

Well, my portfolio's liquid,
and it's worth lots of dough,
Pretty girls all hang around,
To see my credit cards glow.
I'm as good with my wallet,
As I am with my lips;
Stick around honey, learn some mammon gaming tips.

Baby I'm a market artiste.
And maybe I deserve to be kissed.
(I do b'lieve I'mma genius)

Be bull headed at whatever you do,
Let that ol' ego come a beamin' on through.
Tell him market artiste something he don't know,
And he'll be the chump that floats you the dough.

Baby I'm a market artiste.
And maybe I deserve to get pissed.

First I was a Cowboy, then a guru priest,
Any little thing that would keep my palm greased.
Wearing dollar signed suspenders and a Savile Row suit,
I hit the ground running in my auric soled shoes.

Baby I'm a market artiste.
And maybe I deserve to be kissed.

RCrumb (ish)

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

`

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:41 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

...just trying to enjoy myself. Let me guess: you have a problem with that; 'misery loves company' and all that cal.

Or in your interminably misfiring brain do you consider this lark another 'piece of the mystery puzzle' which you and your ilk spend wholly too much time trying to construct?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

<

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

cat caught your keyboard?

Here's the song (after the ad) for anyone interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHWG91UbwOE

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

WE ARE SHORT EUROS, US FINANCIALS AND US HOUSING STOCKS BUT LONG GOLD, CAD, CHF AND MXN AS NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE 15 JUNE WHE US ENTERED A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION

AH FINALLY THE SWISS ECONOMY IS SINKING

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Another day, another shit load of coruption at all levels.

Well on a brighter note, the archbishop of somewhere or other called desmond tutu, has publicly declared he will share a stage or podium with the arch nemisis of man kind himself.  The self-serving, underwear of GWB,  murderous, thieving, lying, corupt, shit stain on the face of humanity,arse wanking, in-human, and down right fucking evil son a cunt.

Tony B.liar.

It aint all bad ZH.

Edit:_ I meant he will not

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

wow what timing...the EUR/USD just dropped 50 pips

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

It  dropped just 50pips, EUR/USD still around 1.25 - which is imho quite high considering the situation in Europe with risk-off sentiment.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

The euro is dying but everybody is buying it.

Gold is set to explode but it's being sold. 

Stock indexes are up, but apparently there is no stock buyers.

Funny world. Lots of media but so very little valuable information.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right it's almost like 'Orwellian' or some shit.

The other acting president puppet Clinton just yesterday said 'We need a 'Ministry of Truth' for the internet'....hell thats a quote right from 1984.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

Some parties know more - Good chance they  force the market to behave as desired.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 There are HUGE short eur/usd positions well above this 1.23-1.26 range it's been trading in. These weak longs are going to get crushed. ;-)

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Thanks YC.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment intric8
intric8's picture

"FX markets may be pricing in a higher degree of confidence on easing (or signs thereof) at the Jackson Hole conference"

 

It's called the "Jack Hole" for short. People attending the conference there are jack______s and ass______s.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

Its only Europeans that dont print money, where do you think is heading?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

I have a strange feeling that Europe has and will print money - actually it seems they print something different to the Euro. Swiss franc? Is Europe able to sell "generated"  dollars?

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