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Red Is The New Green - Volume & Volatility Surge
After touching four-year highs this morning, the S&P abruptly turned tail and sold back down. AAPL slumped hard off its all-time record high open just shy of $675 - reverting NASDAQ to its peer indices and broadly equities had the worst day in 3 weeks (and only its 4th down day of the month of August). S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) volume surged to its highest in three weeks - and average trade size was its highest since the lows in early June - along with its largest daily range in three weeks. Volatility jumped (amid some extreme gappiness as AAPL started to lose it) back above 15% (up over 1 vol) - leaking modestly lower into the close as ES saw some intraday covering to lift it 'off-the-lows'. Hovering at the Friday morning/Monday night lows in stocks, Treasuries saw a green close (just) with the long-bond 8bps off its intraday high yields - following the same rip-and-dip pattern of the last few days. Credit traded the same pattern as stocks today - with IG breaking below 97bps only to close back above 98.5bps, HY underperformed (as HYG outperformed in a very narrow range). Credit was busy from our chatter with desks. The USD kept falling but stabilized after Europe closed - though commodities all gained on the day - with some 'leakage' in the afternoon. Stocks led risk-assets in general in the risk-off mode - with financials the only notably green sector as tech underperformed.
ES broke to new four-year highs, but found resistance at the top of the up-channel and fell back to the next support...
Volume was at a three-week high today but average trade size was considerably larger than recent averages - tending to mark turning points...
but just a glance at the last few days of cross-asset class performance tells you that things are a mess with bonds, stocks, gold, and FX all moving around - eventually recoupling to some extent today...
Treasuries remain in the recent range - with some serious swings in between - after touching their 200DMA today
The swing in stocks, credit, treasuries and AAPL today would likely have scared few weaker hands away but nothing indicates sustained weakness for now - the volume and high average trade size does however suggests pros were covering longs up here more than buying the dips. For follow-through, we will need to see Treasuries come along for the ride now and a little more JPY cross action - especally now EURUSD is back at 'fair' and offering little juice for rate differentials (we think of the lower panes as a 'chaos' premium over rate-differentials that provides 'juice' for carry when EUR is experiencing pain)...
On a long-term basis, risk-assets (based on post LTRO2 calibrations) have normalized 'up' to equity's exuberance in recent weeks (TSY weakness and commodity strength) but still point to a notable drop in ES to around 1300 (over 120 points of hope)...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: AAPL and the amazing VWAP close boundaries...
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"nothing indicates sustained weakness for now" Komplett richtig, leider.
Can you guys only imagine how high the S&P would have been if a schrewd businessman was in the White House? Lower corporate taxes, lower capital gains taxes, lower taxes on the REAL drivers of our economy coupled with a business friendly environment would have created so much more wealth than the nanny, welfare environment that we have today.
Make that change!
Romney/Ryan 2012
Worst. Troll. Ever.
Go back to Yahoo and practice some more.
"Can you guys only imagine how high the S&P would have been if a schrewd businessman was in the White House? Lower corporate taxes, lower capital gains taxes, lower taxes on the REAL drivers of our economy coupled with a business friendly environment would have created so much more wealth than the nanny, welfare environment that we have today."
Make that change!
Ron Paul 2012
Ron Paul is not on the ballot; why do you have so much trouble understanding what "reality" means?
Yeah , even lower cap gains taxes so the economy does nothing and rich get richer. Thats exactly what we need.
I am not a fan of double taxation or triple taxation. What can I say. Please don't make me defend the Romney troll...
Let me get this straight; you "intelligent people" on Zero Hedge want to vote for Obama? Is that right? Are you really that stupid?
MDB is at least funny.
MDB has been getting a bit more serious and a bit more irritated lately. I notice instead of some unsolicited rant he tends to respond to others more. If he keeps that up he will be forced to learn something.
Congrats on your 9 days!
Some fun anagrams of your screen name:
Refuse Our Torture
Our Reefer Or Tutus
Also a fun anagram of Mitt + Paul: A Tit Lump
Remember: Election 2012 The Dick or the The Cancer, either way we're fucked!
the conventions are coming!
this is our own convention!
maybe we should amend theContsitution so that:
that would fix everything, doncha think, fuu?
we'd have the pols and banksters right where we want em then, BiCheZ!
Why would we want to get rid of gold and silver coinage?
b/c the Constitution doesn't work the way it is now fuu, so it should be changed???
oh wait! i just re-checked! theConstitution already says gold & silver = money & is/are legal to discharge all debts
and lemme check the corporations.... not mentioned? HOW THE FUK CAN CORPORATIONS = PEOPLE WHEN THEY ARE NOT MENTIONED IN THE US CONTITUTION?
alex: that's right, slewie!
you got the question right for the dy-ileedbl and $88K! and here's theFinalJeopardyTM answer once again, BiCheZ:
Where do rights come from?
Here we go,
the robots get cold feets....
Silver bitches!
Hope, bitchez!
Markets rise on hope of action by ECBWho needs fundamentals when you've got hope?
Where is Max Fissure. I need him to set me straight.
I dunno, but here's his theme song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AcJCzb_beQ
troll appreciation day?
I find that they are never always wrong.
we still have tyler
The market broke out of its gator mouth algo triggered pattern with this last rally.
What animal chart are we going to get this time? It looks like a giraffe neck pattern right now, or maybe elephant trunk. Either way the moves up and down seem to look like they are going to increase in size.
Anyone thinking WTF, is that analysis really any different than any other analysis in this market?
yes
but at least the squirrel didn't fall offa the limb...
"the volume and high average trade size does however suggests pros were covering longs up here more than buying the dips. "
I just can't imagine who would be buying at 4 year highs.
With the commodity charts posted earlier, retail sales numbers, the last employment report and the market at 4 year highs, Jackson Hole should be interesting.
The major averages are a mechanism of public opinion control; but the book cookers have overdone it; sell it where it sits. It's no good.
Another bleh day especially because financials managed to close green. Shenangians still afoot.
old paradigm: Green is blue & Red is red
new paradigm:Red is the new green is Red & Green is silver (with blue balls)
still overbought.
Wow, really? After a .3% selloff? Yeah, I imagine we might have another .1% to go before we rally. My God that was scary.
Agreed. Sell it where it sits. The next significant move is down.
All hail schizobot!
Check out lates Gallup poll on jobs. Something happened very recently that slowed hiring sagnificantly:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110134/Gallup-Daily-US-Job-Market.aspx
WAR IS PEACE.
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY.
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.
RED IS GREEN.
Sounds like the Obama campaign.
SVXY -2.7% (inverse 2x, no short borrow available)
VXZ +1.5%
VXX +2.2%
UVXY +4.5% (that's a 2x)
$VIX +7.1%
Worst. ETNs / ETFs. Eva.
If this is even a down day...still feels like a bear trap to me. Of course if "short in may" was your thing then I guess this better be the real deal.
"It's a trap or ya blind!"
Braveheart
bullish
if you chat with brianSack, please say hi from slewie!
we are not wothy!
he's got that paradigmShifterTM on that new edsel tranny doesn't he?
slewie's market reporttues:> 8.21.12 there was no data to fudge today so 'they' were unable to get the muppets to buy; the mupputs sold into the morning rally and are now gonna try to knock down soybeans and oil [which has benefitted from peak corn and the tightness in the ethanol and carbon credits futures]