Referendum Day To Decide Greek's Future Is 12/4

Tyler Durden's picture




Just headlines, via Bloomberg, for now as Juncker and Sarkozy play good-cop / bad-cop:

*SARKOZY SAYS REFERENDUM WILL DECIDE GREECE'S EURO FUTURE

*SARKOZY SAYS REFERENDUM WILL BE AROUND DEC. 4 OR DEC. 5

*SARKOZY SAYS CAN'T HAVE 'PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY'

*SARKOZY SAYS 'WE ARE READY TO AID GREECE'

*SARKOZY SAYS GREECE WON'T GET `SINGLE CENT' WITHOUT ENACTMENT

*JUNCKER SAYS AID PAYMENT DEPENDS ON GREEK VOTE

*GREECE HAS `LOST 8 BILLION. THAT IS A PITY,' JUNCKER SAYS

and then Angie butted in:

*MERKEL SAYS GREEK REFERENDUM IS MASSIVE CHANGE OF SITUATION

*MERKEL SAYS FIREWALL MEASURES MUST BE SPEEDED UP

*MERKEL SAYS KEEPING EURO STABLE IS THE PRIORITY

*MERKEL SAYS EU EXPECTS POLITICAL CONSENSUS IN GREECE

*MERKEL SAYS GREECE MUST ACCEPT FULL DEAL TO GET NEXT TRANCHE

 

Christine then added, rather passive-aggressively (given out earlier note on Greek maturities):

*IMF'S LAGARDE SAYS HOPES GREECE TRANCHE CAN BE CLOSED MID-DEC

Initial reaction is ES selling off 3-4pts and very slight downtick in EUR

UPDATE: ES -6pts and EUR -35pips - some CONTEXT for where markets stand based on ES rally today as broad risk-assets generally sold off:

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Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:32 | 1838963 Mongo
Mongo's picture

This is so coordinated. Papandreou doesn't do anything without approval from the suits at IMF

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:42 | 1838994 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

SARKOZY SAYS REFERENDUM WILL DECIDE GREECE'S EURO FUTURE.

Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
'Relax,' said the nightman
'We are programmed to receive.'
'You can check out anytime you like but ...'

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1839029 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

They who past reason and recovery are devoted to kingship perhaps will answer, that a greater part by far of the nation will have it so, the rest therefore must yield. Not so much to convince these, which I little hope, as to confirm them who yield not, I reply, that this greatest part have both in reason, and the trial of just battle, lost the right of their election what the government shall be: of them who have not lost that right, whether they for kingship be the greater number, who can certainly determine? Suppose they be, yet of freedom they partake all alike, one main end of government: which if the greater part value not, but will degenerately forego, is it just or reasonable, that most voices against the main end of government should enslave the less number that would be free? more just it is, doubtless, if it come to force, that a less number compel a greater to retain, which can be no wrong to them, their liberty, than that a greater number, for the pleasure of their baseness, compel a less most injuriously to be their fellow-slaves. They who seek nothing but their own just liberty, have always right to win it and to keep it, whenever they have power, be the voices never so numerous that oppose it. And how much we above others are concerned to defend it from kingship, and from them who in pursuance thereof so perniciously would betray us and themselves to most certain misery and thraldom, will be needless to repeat.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:01 | 1839081 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Truly excellent and one of the best arguments against broad-based, popular democracy, such as we have here in the U.S.A., that I have read anywhere.  Who are you citing?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1839095 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Extend and pretend, kick the can, wait 'em out, wear 'em down, spray and pray...

...bitchez.

The EUR is as good as dead, unless Myanmar comes through with that big rescue package.

Wait, oh that's right...Germans are going to assume the debt of PIIGSFUK (PIIGS+France+UK). That shouldn't create a mathematical problem for Germany, and the ECB can always just print in Weimaresque fashion, until Europeans use wheelbarrels full of euros to buy a loaf of bread.

What's old is new again.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:10 | 1839105 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

John Milton, "A Free Commonwealth," I think.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:15 | 1839119 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Yes, above is Milton, 1660.  Here is Patrick Henry arguing correctly but unsuccessfully against Virginia's ratification of the Constitution.  Things never change.

Will the adoption of this new plan pay our debts? This, sir, is a plain question. It is inferred that our grievances are to be redressed, and the evils of the existing system to be removed, by the new Constitution. Let me inform the honorable gentleman that no nation ever paid its debts by a change of government, without the aid of industry. You never will pay your debts but by a radical change of domestic economy. At present you buy too much, and make too little, to pay. Will this new system promote manufactures, industry, and frugality? If, instead of this, your hopes and designs will be disappointed, you relinquish a great deal, and hazard indefinitely more, for nothing. Will it enhance the value of your lands? Will it lessen your burdens? Will your looms and wheels go to work by the act of adoption? If it will, in its consequence, produce these things, it will consequently produce a reform, and enable you to pay your debts. Gentlemen must prove it. I am a skeptic, an infidel, on this point. I cannot conceive that it will have these happy consequences. I cannot confide in assertions and allegations. The evils that attend us lie in extravagance and want of industry, and can only be removed by assiduity and economy. Perhaps we shall be told by gentlemen that these things will happen, because the administration is to be taken from us, and placed in the hands of the few, who will pay greater attention, and be more studiously careful than we can be supposed to be.

With respect to the economical operation of the new government, I will only remark, that the national expenses will be increased; if not doubled, it will approach it very nearly. I might, without incurring the imputation of illiberality or extravagance, say that the expense will be multiplied tenfold. I might tell you of a numerous standing army, a great, powerful navy, a long and rapacious train of officers and dependants, independent of the President, senators, and representatives, whose compensations are without limitation. How are our debts to be discharged unless the taxes are increased, when the expenses of the government are so greatly augmented? The defects of this system are so numerous and palpable, and so many states object to it, that no union can be expected, unless it be amended.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:38 | 1839185 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I salute you SWRichmond for bringing to our attention such a timeless piece of wisdom and commn sense.

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 05:28 | 1840058 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

French and Germans make it sound like they are doing Greece a favor.....when in fact French are just bailing out their shitty banks for shitty loans to Greece and Germans just want to sell more of their shit to Greeks who can't afford it without getting more into debt.

 

Same bullshit in US folks. Instead of regime change due to reality surfacing and Americans revolting, China gives more debt to US Treasury, CONgress distributes it to populace so they can buy more MADE IN CHINA crap. US mismanagement class are just kicking the can down the road by giving debt addicts more debt just to stay in power. Meanwhile Chinese are building their knowhow in business and exports.

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 08:54 | 1841013 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Yes, but it was ignored.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 22:20 | 1839789 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

bullshit. democracy will not decide who is free and who are slaves. you can always get more than 50% of slaves to vote for their master. 

free men will decide by their actions who will be free or who will die fighting.

all this democracy bullshit. enough. it is a sideshow of nonsense. and just another lame excuse to bring in the riot police and military to repress the 49%.

but yea, voting plays well on the news when it serves the interests of the plutocracy. 

 

no more voting in greece.  it is time for violence. real violence. not just misdirected rioting.

everyone knows it. and it will stress allegiances in the military or require new ones, which is why you hear that story this week about a military leadership overhaul in greece.

the plutocracy will eventually have to turn greece into a country of shanty towns and barred up guarded fortress like housing complexes for the upper class. and then , the first attempt at a revolution will follow. 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:42 | 1838996 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

I won't believe shit until I hear the confirmation from the Health Minister personally.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:21 | 1839134 moneyline
moneyline's picture

......hmmmmmmm. Didn't G-Pip say that that Greece found a few billion euro under a sofa in the Panthenon and that they had enough money to last until mid-Nov????? I guess they are going to "find" some money somewhere else????? I might just bailout of the markets all together. This whole thing is starting to sound like a set up before QE3 or something.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:47 | 1839407 Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

Sort of.  It was actually a box of billion euro notes dated 2012.  Apparently a print requisition from TPTB went out too early, so they just saved the notes for after the hyperinflation.  He's not allowed to spend them yet.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 21:27 | 1839675 MS7
MS7's picture

Although I was initially fooled by this move for a referendum, I think you are right. Most Greeks will likely vote to stay in the euro, thus giving away the one card (other than default within the euro zone) that they had.

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 00:20 | 1839932 hpro123
hpro123's picture

SURREAL!!!

 

First IMF says 6th Installment is Off the table until GPap figures out his referendum thing.

 

Then, 04:45 Athens time, Venizelos, Finance Minister and "Deputy Prime Minister", upon his return from Cannes,  posts in the Official Finance Ministry site that... HE IS OPPOSED to the REFERNDUM and is all for National Unity!!!

 

Stay tuned... 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:33 | 1838965 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Its like the 3 Stooges, they are all idiots who are playing us like a fiddle...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:41 | 1838991 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

They are more like pool sharks.  They let you have the feeling that they don't know what they are doing but in the end you know they are going to end up with all of your money. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:38 | 1838966 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Funny how a FRENCH decides when the GREEK referendum will be...

The greeks should tell Sarkozy to suck it and they'll do it when they'll do it and he has NO POWER OVER IT.

Little Napoleon can go to hell.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:44 | 1839002 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

The smell of feudalism fills the air.  The masters of the land are telling the peasants what they can and cannot do while the masters seize the harvest.

Ain't gonna work on Merkel's farm no more. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:49 | 1839020 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Day's never finished...

Massa' got me workin'....

Someday massa' set me free...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:00 | 1839072 letitgo
letitgo's picture

Make sure you take a look at Sarko's pretty angry reply to the French-speaking reporter who suggested they were meddling in Greece's affairs.  He basically said that they have enough to deal with in their own countries and aren't doing it out of pleasure.  Probably not too far wrong on that exist.  The rest of his reply talking about how the programs had worked in Spain, for example, were a little further from the mark.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1839097 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Meanwhile, in Greece:

The dismissal of Greece’s top military chiefs has the opposition up in arms. With the Greek crisis worsening by the day, PM George Papandreou has been accused of trying to rein in the armed forces before a potential government collapse.

http://rt.com/news/greece-military-dismissal-papandreou-393/

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:15 | 1839292 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

That's the real question for any "western" government. 

 

When the shat hits the fan and "normal" civil society breaks down, who's in charge of what?

 

Questions like that are always answered with force.

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 03:44 | 1840012 zuuuueri
zuuuueri's picture

the actual changes aren't to take effect for quite a while. The very top officers are all political appointments anyway and they get cycled in and out. It's the level or two below those guys who really run the military establishment, and any changes there are seldom published in any real way. 

no, the truth is that those in the halls of power in greece are completely, 100% out of touch with what's happening on the streets of the country. They are living in their own fantasy land, whose primary occupation is the import, manufacture, and export of more pipe dreams. The disconnect between the top echelon of politicos and the rest of the country is getting enormous now. 

I'd bet that there will be a set of institutions on paper labelled the greek government which are kept on life support for far longer than any of us would ever imagine rationally possible, still officially speaking on behalf of the nation, possibly still being 'elected' , while the reality on the ground drifts into a strange mix of local rule, quiet (not violent) anarchy/self rule, and miserable corruption.. different areas will have a different mix of the three..  

 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:56 | 1839058 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

you got it wrong bro. It's the money who decides.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:02 | 1839084 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you mean "the money printers who decide."

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:09 | 1839104 pacdm
pacdm's picture

I smell a rat and little French Rat at that and as for Germany they lost 2 World Wars so the people of Greece tell them to piss off. The rest of Europe need Greece to Default 100% put an end to the Euro for good.

I am from England i can smell the rat from here.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:33 | 1839523 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Funny how a FRENCH decides when the GREEK referendum will be...

No, it's funny when a Hungarian decides when the Minnesotan should call a referendum in Greece.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:36 | 1838975 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Everyone is raising each other, but no one dares to call.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:45 | 1839007 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

But that only happens during The Last Hand when nobody wants the game to end, everybody hoping they can recoup their losses in one fell swoop.  That seldom works out well. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:38 | 1838981 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Another month of this shit . Great .

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:52 | 1839044 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Not even...if they make it another week, it'll be a miracle. Credit markets are signaling some heavy weather, soon. Yo, Rome, batten down the hatches. 12/4? As if

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:38 | 1838984 kengland
kengland's picture

Take the money the greeks were set to borrow and fill the holes left in your banks. Kick the Greeks out and be done with it. If you are hell bent on borrowing your way out then just get it done for crying out loud. The market would absolutely start crying in celebration if they did that

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:39 | 1838985 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

I'LL CALL.   I've got a yo-yo with a broken string and 2 used popscycle sticks and I'm all in, and that's more than France has got.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:46 | 1839010 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Does that beat a used condom on a baguette? 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:56 | 1839059 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

Not in France it don't.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:41 | 1839195 knukles
knukles's picture

OK, then a used condom with a hole in it and a half eaten sourdough baguette.

 

God, I just wish to fuck that somebody would embarass the living shit out of that short sawed off little shit Snarkozy so he'd have a coniption fit an d break down crying on the telly.

Why the fuck would any country join the EU just to wind up being bossed about and have it's pockets emptied by that little rodent?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:39 | 1838986 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

"Initial reaction is ES selling off 3-4pts and very slight downtick in EUR"

But I was watching metals a little while ago and they took a sudden jump.  This had to be the news that caused it.  If you were Greek wouldn't you be making sure that some of your savings were in shiny objects? 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:40 | 1838989 letitgo
letitgo's picture

Watching Sarkozy and Merkel live.  She just said that she'd prefer the Eurozone with Greece, rather than without them, but the German priority is a stable eurozone and this might require going without them.  Sarko is now backing her up in more vague terms.

So they're either playing hardball with Greece or finally recognising that they might be better off without them.

Surely this is bullish for the euro either way, but it's currently dropping.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:49 | 1839019 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

but the German priority is a stable eurozone and this might require going without them.

You are sure they are not talking about Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy or France?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:53 | 1839046 letitgo
letitgo's picture

No, she was only talking about Greece.  A few minutes later Sarko proudly proclaimed how the programs were working in Ireland, Portugal and Spain.  It's just Greece.

Sorry if the use of the plural was confusing, I was translating from German on the fly.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:56 | 1839056 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

No, it's just that my post was SARCASM... maybe it was lost in translation too.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:04 | 1839088 letitgo
letitgo's picture

No worries, but that was far too close to the true state of affairs to be read as sarcasm.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:53 | 1839214 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

 

Merkel may be letting the cat out of the bag. It should soon dawn on the rest of EU and the banking cartels that they can not tolerate a Greek referendum. Period. 

Not in January. Not in December. Not in November.

Regardless of whether the Greeks vote Yes or No on the referendum, the precedent set by having a REFERENDUM will strike a stake into the heart of the banking cartel vampire.

If Greece sets a precedent by voting on the Faustian bargain, TPTB know the game is up, and the Genie is out of the bottle, 

As soon as the EU, IMF, and G-20 wake from their last hurrah in Cannes, they will realize the ONLY solution that serves their Masters in the Banking Cartels, is to throw Greece out of the EU before the referendum.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:52 | 1839428 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Interesting observation, and probably true. Maybe it is all a setup to throw them out, to seem as if they are in control. Trouble is, you KNOW the banks have CDS exposure here that is far greater than the actual debt, plus they are so thin on capital that it won't take anything to send them into receivership. But Europe will survive without the current crop of bansk - new ones will spring up, and the cycle begin again. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:32 | 1839521 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Yes, it will be bitter medicine, even for the banks, but the alternative of allowing referendums, I think, is sure death to EU and the banks-as-we-know-them.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:40 | 1838990 Quantitative_Ap...
Quantitative_Appeasing's picture

Looking forward to the following headlines -

 

*GREECE VOTES NO ON BAILOUT MEASURES

*GREECE SET DEFAULT ON ALL PREVIOUS BOND ISSUANCE

*GREECE TO RETURN TO THE DRACHMA IN 2012

 

Followed by -

 

*FRENCH BANKS CAPITAL POSITIONS DRASTICALLY WORSEN DUE TO GREECE VOTE

*FRENCH GOVERNMENT LOOKS FOR SOLUTION TO SHORE UP LOCAL BANKS

*FRENCH GOVERNMENT UNABLE TO COME UP WITH VIABLE RECAPITALIZATION PLAN

*FRENCH BANKS TO GO "TITS-UP" FOLLOWING LACK OF ALTERNATIVES

 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:47 | 1839013 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

*FRENCH ARE THANKFUL THEY ARE NOT ITALY

 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:51 | 1839037 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

*France loses AAA rating

*France surrenders

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:08 | 1839100 adr
adr's picture

actually it is:

*Greeks vote no on bailout

*Greek no vote revoked by state official

*IMF says Greek losses have stabilized

*Greek referendum vote restored

*Market panics as Greece defaults

*Markets rise 8% in one day as Greek default upstageg by $5 trillion ECB bailout

*Markets plunge as ECB bailout hits court snag

*Greek default postponed as new Chinese bond program launced, futures rise

*Chinese plan backfires as Beijing announces no bond program exists

*Global leaders meet to discuss plan to rescue Greek default

*2016 US General election held

*Greek default vote once again looks likely

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:56 | 1839235 surf0766
surf0766's picture

If that happens I am calling out sick and drinking for 3 days. I figure 72 hours before the mass realizes what happened and begin demanding 24-7 DWS

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 03:24 | 1840006 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

FRENCH PEOPLE RAMPAGING THROUGH THE STREETS SMASHING CARS AND HANGING POLITICIANS

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:41 | 1838992 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

G-Pap is handing the manacles and keys to the Greek people and suggesting at the point of a gun that they chain themselves.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:41 | 1838995 chump666
chump666's picture

What the f*ck is up Sarkozy's a-hole?   That dickhead should be a lot more concerned that this coming winter France will grind to a halt i.e strikes galore, same with Germany.  Both countries have become arrogant and lazy.

Vote NO Greece, get your asses out of the EU. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:51 | 1839040 letitgo
letitgo's picture

The French are used to strikes and haven't actually had that many recently by their standards.  You won't see Germany grind to a halt, they don't know how.

Sarkozy's only problem is likely to be re-capitalising French banks.  Merkel's main problem will be dealing with any increase in the value of the euro when the weak links drop out and everyone else prints because of market turmoil.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:06 | 1839093 chump666
chump666's picture

No Europe is done. The French will go into the cycle of riots/protests/striks and anything else, Germany are experts at rioting and the like.  The point is, both countries are almost 100% reliant on Chinese demand.  That is slowing to a possible halt.  The print jobs to date have been eye bleeding, and they have flopped each time (apart from the QE2 meltup 2009/2010).  The EZ/EU is gravely ill, say they get hit with with stagflation Europe will explode.  The Germans hate oil inflation as does the French.

This is the endgame, there is no infinity in markets, a beginning and an end.  We are close to the end.  If Europe goes + China hardlanding = Doomsday overkill.

In the meatime you got some nice volatlity/swing trades (news headlines). 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:20 | 1839132 letitgo
letitgo's picture

Some pretty ridiculous statements to back your outlandish claim that (all of) Europe is done.

Germany experts at rioting and the like!?!  Anything to back this up? You sure you're not thinking of the UK?  Real riots usually stem from unemployed youth.  German youth employment rates are the highest they've been since reunification.  Unlikely, to say the least.

Then you seem to be arguing that Europe is dead because of a Chinese hard-landing and US & UK money printing.  Maybe you should be focusing on China, the US and the UK instead, the EZ is hardly printing by comparison and there's no evidence of fake demand for German goods in Europe.

Both France and Germany almost 100% reliant on Chinese demand!?! No, Europe is actually a massive consumption market and China is much more dependent on European consumers than Germany is on China's consumers.  If you want to look at countries reliant on Chinese demand, cast your gaze in the direction of countries exporting minerals to them, particularly Australia.

You might be right that the markets are in for a crash, but that will actually cause much more trouble in the non-European G20 members than in Europe where, unlike elsewhere in western world, people aren't up to their eyeballs in personal debt with huge amounts of their wealth locked up in the stock and property markets.  Many people in Continental Europe couldn't care what happens to the markets, the shockwaves of any crash will be much larger elsewhere.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:40 | 1839192 chump666
chump666's picture

Germany and France both feed into the China luxury demand markets.  Been to China?  Seen the traffic jams of BMW's, Mercs etc etc etc.  Now look at CDS spreads on German/France which i might add are a c-hair away from contracting/recession. And there is no correlation? China crashes it will take out France and Germany in a second.

Look man, EU is kaput, if Greece goes, Italy will follow suit and will Spain and if Merkel gets kicked out - and she will at somepoint, Germany my also go.

As for riots, Germans lose that cheap EZ labor, China goes, oil inflation up...I'll bet you'll get riots.  Plus the Germans are locked in on a 40%+ tax to bailout zombies economies. The got shafted.

As far as France, same thing.   

Europe is 100% worst than the US. I mean the whole world is F*cked, but EZ is totally done. Sorry.  I mean you see the headlines, that's all we are trading on...and we are drifting lower.  Means?  Market is pricing the EU implosion.

That's life and life is pain.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:46 | 1839206 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

German export industry is well diversified, not so much dependent on China alone. And German labor is compared to their productivity one of the cheapest in the Euro zone, there is not even a minimum wage like in the US.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:09 | 1839470 fnord88
fnord88's picture

"German export industry is well diversified"

 

HAHAHAAAA You mean they loan the rest of the euro money so they can sell them stuff.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:48 | 1839568 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Somehow these export surpluses have to be funded, as long as others are not productive enough to have enough goods for exchange. Same problem here in US: trade deficit is funded by banks and foreigners.

Only banks can create credit, not people. Take a look at the shareholder structure of German companies. Foreigners hold a majority stake in most DAX companies. So the majority of profits flows out of the country.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:39 | 1839377 LeZinc
LeZinc's picture

Not to forget that the slogan "En France, on n'a pas de pétrole mais on a des idées" may have helped back in the 70s' oil crisis, but will have no effect in the face of the end of cheap oil. Its total dependance on oil imports on top of this deep financial crisis spells disaster--->riots&stikes soon. By the way, I'm not sure french people, when they adopted american fast-foods and Halloween celebrations, didn't adopt the american-way of spending (debt) too. Should be fun to look at some comparative data, say today versus the 70s or 80s even. May be free, or almost free education and universal free access to health care may put french people in a slightly better position though. But then again, France carries a huge deficit...

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 04:00 | 1840018 letitgo
letitgo's picture

I think you'd be better off basing your predictions on trade figures than on how many BMWs and Mercs you saw in China, even if, based on what I've seen in both China and Europe, there still see many more German cars in Europe than China both on a number of units and percentage basis.

I'm still struggling to understand how a Chinese hard landing makes "Europe 100% worse than the US" -- it's a very interesting and very ZH question which side of the pond would ultimately suffer more in a Chinese hard landing that we shouldl debate some other time.  I'm trying to understand the real situation in the long term, the last thing I'll be looking at is the series of superficial headlines and rumours we're trading on.

For the moment all I can say is that if you're right and the market is pricing in Northern European economic implosion, then there'll certainly be a massive rally sometime in the next 12 months when Germany et al do not implode.  So let's see if you're right.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:41 | 1839194 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Lenin knew: "If the Germans staged a revolution at the train station, they would buy tickets for the platform first".

And Stalin said: "In Germany you cannot have a revolution because you would have to step on the lawns."

This pretty much sums German mentality up.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:50 | 1839219 chump666
chump666's picture

there you go punk. 

http://www.thelocal.de/society/20110810-36857.html

germans kick ass when they get pissed (off).  They just got played by the gov, so a matter of time.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:06 | 1839265 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Of course, they have the same problems like in Britain, where in some areas migrants make up 70 percent of the population. Completely different mentality and not Germans.

 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:14 | 1839481 Rynak
Rynak's picture

The only reason why "germans kick ass when they get pissed off", is because it takes so long for them to be pissed off. So there you got your combination of "germans typically aren't rioters" and "when germans riot (instead of just demostrate), run for the hills".

They in this regard behave pretty much inverse to the french: Those will riot at the slightest provocation, but they will just as quick cool down again.

So yeah, you're pretty much both wrong..... and both right.... at the same time.... yet without getting the complete picture.

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 04:04 | 1840023 letitgo
letitgo's picture

If you read the actual article and not just the headline and first paragraph, you'd say that other than the police union trying to get themselves more hours and fancy riot gear, everyone else quotes makes the opposite point to what you were trying to make: namely that Germany is not like the UK and not at risk of such riots.  They justify their points well too.

Too busy trading the headlines only to read and consider the whole article, I guess.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:21 | 1839497 rosex229
rosex229's picture

chump666 i must admit i would have agreed with your general premise a few short years ago. that is the premise that the whole house of cards will come crashing down in a rapid fashion. one day greece leaves the eu, 3 days later italy says 'well if they can...' it turns out that this kind of thinking about how events will unfold is a result of the way we educate ourselves about the collapse/fall of past societies. when we read books or watch shows on social and economic collapse they always tiddy things up into a neat sequence of events that, for entertainments sake, take place fairly rapidly. this is not how reality works.

this european debt crisis is a stunning example, as is the 2008 financial collapse that began in the u.s. economic, political, and social systems don't generally collapse completely overnight. i would relate this to the evoltionary theory of graduated equilibrium. there is stability. or equilibrium in an ecosystem for some time until the right combination of factors leads to an inflection point whre the system gyrates wildly until settling in on a new state of equilibrium. 

its clear that the equilibrium or stable state of the last several decades is being pertrubed by several converging factors. these pressures are putting equal negative force on all world economies, but the weakest links are breaking first. however, a chain snapping under too much stress may seem sudden, but in a frame by frame perspective has predictable starting conditions, and proceeds rather slowly. 

the world will seem exactly the same tomorrow when you wake up, as it will the next day and the day after that. collapse when lived and experienced, as opposed to being read in a book or viewed in a documentaryg is a rather slow process. in fact, its slow enough that most of the people around yo dont even realize what is happening, which i'm sure is frustrating for man of us.u

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:00 | 1839074 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

That dickhead should be a lot more concerned that this coming winter France...

As a politician, he's got an IQ a point or 2 above plant life. Clever perhaps, but not too bright. That's why he's where he is.  (That goes for US politicans too, of course.)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:42 | 1838997 Conax
Conax's picture

Won't the Greeks default by then?  Or is the emergency not all that emergent?

I don't get it.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:43 | 1839000 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I suspect Pap has a ballot stuffing plan that he hopes will vindicate him for what he wants and keep him off the gallows. Just doing the will of the people, etc. Only flaw I see is thinking he'll get to 12/4. But hey, he owns the whole crew of aid helpers now. They gotta let him slide on a due date or kaboom.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:52 | 1839039 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Now watch what happens with this date.  People will act like this date will be the end of the world.  And then it will come and go, like so many other "critical" dates of the past 3 years, and nothing substantial will have changed.  How many times have we held out breath about QE announcements, bailout deadlines, elections, Arab uprisings, mark-to-market rulings, etc.?  And yet the world, with all of this fraud in the financial world, continues to spin.

I don't mean to shit on anybody here.  I'm just being realistic.  December 5th will come and go, and by that point this will have been downplayed into a non-event.  I will stand by that prediction. 

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 04:14 | 1839994 saulysw
saulysw's picture

At some point the sheer weight of the worlds problems start to feed on themselves in an unstoppable feedback loop. I guess you will be one of the people saying "nobody could have seen that coming!". The rest of us, here, are watching out for this. I don't claim to know what will start it, but something will, and probably sooner rather than later. Looks like we will get to 2012 at least, on that I agree with you.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:43 | 1839001 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

I really do not understand why people are talking about Greece, it's a no-brainer! Make up ur mind about the 800lb gorilla, called bunga bunga. Yet there is not enough fire under their ass!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:44 | 1839006 letitgo
letitgo's picture

Sorry to post again, but this is an entertaining press conference, even by Sarko's standards,  He's now losing it at a reporter who was very critical.  Merkel is being a real hard arse and doing a fair bit of that smirking that she managed last week when she got her way.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:52 | 1839008 mynhair
mynhair's picture

What happened to the poster reporting Merkel live?

Was 'moved to a more appropriate thread'.

Are MW interns on ZH now?  letitgo

 

Oh, up above.  Never mind.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:45 | 1839009 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

*MERKEL SAYS EU PREPARED FOR ANY OUTCOME IN GREECE REFERENDUM

Oh REALLY? I would call your bluff on that.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1839031 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The fix is in...they already know the outcome.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:27 | 1839332 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

-1

Nothing personal Rainman. I'm just getting sick of 100s of conspiracy comments each day, and yours was handy.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:48 | 1839017 max2205
max2205's picture

When do those 1 year Greek bonds pay off? Looks like a quadrupole for us

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1839026 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

Here's the Germans' POV:

Fuck you Papandreou

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x43dCWkDWFU

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:58 | 1839062 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

+1 - Falco never sounded so good

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:11 | 1839281 fuu
fuu's picture

bravo!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:24 | 1839318 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Indeed I am a big supporter of Greece holding a referendum, and admire Georgios Papandreou's boldness here ...

But that is a damn funny video you just linked there, to the tune of Falco's Amadeus:

« ... And then the leaders of the Eurozone said 'F-ck you Papandreou' »

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1839027 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

* Merkel says Greece only gets next tranche of first bail out after Oct 27 deal is fully implemented.

also this gem...

*It appears there are 10-12 'rebels' in Berlusconi's party, enough to bring the Italian government down

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1839028 St. Deluise
St. Deluise's picture

soooo whatever the market decides on this week will be the trend until dec. got it.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1839030 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

sarkel, merkozy, la_grande_lagarde, and the junckster

what a line-up!  muderers' row!

they sound like a bunch of rushing chairpersons during...

...greek week?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:25 | 1839141 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

what a line-up! muderers' row!

Sarkozy, Merkel, Lagarde and Junckster... would be nice if that would be the names of the people on death row.

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