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Remember Silver?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

 

Because the stealthy take over of Libya by its rebel forces is matched only by the stealth soaring of silver in the last two days. We wonder how long until the perfectly normal and completely SEC-uninvestigated May 1 silver sledgehammer formation repeats again, and when will we see another 5 silver margin hikes in the san of a few days?

 


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Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment mcguire
mcguire's picture

i guess silver is money afterall.. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment unky
unky's picture

No you are wrong. Because Libya is now resolved, the uncertainties for the world economy are gone and more commodity style silver is being needed, lol ^^

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Meh I feel better with silver then the Benny bucks

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:42 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

yeah i remember silver all right.

she is the other girl you kind of know will be there while you're off after the prom queen.

i'm going back to the fallback position here awhile.  i always preferred maryann to ginger anyway.   

 

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:59 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I preferred Lovey Howell (but take all the girls and the bartender).

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Unky by my random ass guess a full 20% of this forum either has asperger's or no sense of humor or both. Hence the uber junkification when....YOU ARE ON THEIR SIDE MAKING A JOKE! LOL! I will even it out with another up vote. *sigh*

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Our traditional media finally waking up...


Wall Street Aristocracy Got $1.2 Trillion in Fed’s Secret Loans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/wall-street-aristocracy-got-1-2-trillion-in-fed-s-secret-loans.html

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:16 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Good read. Big banks still cannot exist without the Fed propping them up.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:52 | Link to Comment TeMpTeK
TeMpTeK's picture

The yellow stuff still has some catching up to do

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=16

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:07 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Can I take you out to the pictures, Jo---O---O---oan?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Yes, contrary to the last four articles you read here where it was discussed as an "industrial metal"; as I posted earlier I sold my Dec. Contract at $43.80 earlier this afternoon. I don't like vertical price charts.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I'm almost convinced that we'll never see silver at $40 and gold at $1,700 ever again.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Manzilla
Manzilla's picture

Oh c'mon. It's going higher but let's not act silly.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:52 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

But acting silly is what people do on internet blogs; it's entertaining. Did you expect that someone who knew what they were doing had time to write you little notes here on "doom is us"; no, fraid not.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 08:58 | Link to Comment rich_wicks
rich_wicks's picture

Acting silly and stupid isn't entertaining, it's simply annoying.

Anybody can act like an idiot.  What's difficult is acting informative.

Gold is in the early stages of a surge, it's probably not ready to blow off quite yet.  Generally my experience is there is a surge, nobody believes it, it retracts, everybody feels secure that they didn't believe it, it surges even higher, people begin to question it, pullback, they feel better, and so on, until they captiulate and get in before the train leaves the station, gold crashes, new buyers get crushed, and then it consolidates, and goes back to climbing again.

That's what silver did.  Gold's turn now.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 12:14 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Silly is to put your trust in this goverment and thier confetti machine.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment devilsindetails
devilsindetails's picture

I agree with Trollster... WHY WOULD WE see silver at $40 and $1700 again? 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment 556nato
556nato's picture

Straight myopia.  COMEX is going to put a hurting on silver.   We will see another correction.  

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

I'm thinking they will hammer it before 50, say... 48. It'll go back to 38.

How many more hammer strokes do they have?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:11 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Back in school again, Maxwll plays the holligan, Teacher gets annoyed.

Wishing to avoid an unpleasant sce-E--E--een.

She tells Max to stay, when the class has gone away...so he waits behind

Writing fifty times I must not be so--O--O--O

But when turns her back on the boy, he creps up from behind....

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:29 | Link to Comment Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Sooner or later Maxwell is gonna creep up behind Jamie Dimon...bang bang!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpCV2wgoxC8

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I think people's mindset has changed since the last time CME raised margins five times consecutively.  The weak hands have been shaken out.  Also, silver has underperformed against gold and the ratio is something like 45:1 right now.  It's now time for silver to catch up and this time, they won't be able to defend the $50 line.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:16 | Link to Comment mcguire
mcguire's picture

agreed.  the whole event narrative is interesting, approaching almost exactly the hunt brothers high; this followed by margin hikes and a 'crash' in prices; but with it rising again to retest these highs, it confirms that this is not at all like the rise in prices during the hunt brothers event..  

silver vigilantes.. we are legion.  (lol)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

diminishing MARGINal returns.  They won't be able to recreate the May1 massacre.  Few weaks hands left to shake. $50 by mid Sept.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:56 | Link to Comment sherryw
sherryw's picture

I will go out on a limb and disagree about no more silver massacres. It will happen well after $50. Think psychology, think fishing. Lotsa new players got burnt May 1 and won't be back. But, lotsa newer players will enter as silver creeps higher and becomes mainstream news again, goes past $50 and keeps going, much higher. THEN another smackdown. Too soon for another smackdown now - gotta wait for more newbies to take the bait. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:55 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

There is no "why"; there never has been a why. You can tell when you graduate from trading kindergarten when you realize that there is no why. It took me many, many years to learn this. This price chart is now expontential; which is "usually" not good. A reaction back to $40 is nowhere near impossible; it's not even unlikely.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 02:27 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Yup.

But you cant argue with myopic people. "SILVER TO DA MOON!111!!1"

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:51 | Link to Comment Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

I agree with you here. However, to claim that silver isn't money is ludicrous.

I don't see the PGM's taking out old highs. Rhodium, Platinum still WAYYYYY below their highs. Why? Well aside from the supply issues that lead to their huge peaks they are both technology metals and thus have suffered with the economy.

Silver has been remarkably strong in the face of documented manipulation, margin hikes etc. You are right Silver will be smacked down again...gold likely will as well although I'm less certain about that. You are wrong that silver is not money.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment unky
unky's picture

I thought we will never see $40 silver again in april,  turned out to be different. I guess the EE will soon pull a few consecutive margin hikes in gold which will bring it down $300-$400 and also silver with it a little

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment devilsindetails
devilsindetails's picture

Well yea, silver BROKE $40.00 in april. thats like expecting silver never to go back below $50 in early may when it broke $50. Peaks and thoughs.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

That was a one trick pony. Anyone still trading metals after May not only expect them to happen but are prepared  for them. They can go to 100% pay to play and it will not effect the market at all. 5 rapid margin changes ended that game.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:53 | Link to Comment Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

It wouldn't be as effective for sure. The shock value is gone and probably many traders are more cautious. Plenty of fools still dabble in margin and would be forced to liquidate by margin calls. Never underestimate the stupidity that often goes hand in hand with greed.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:13 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

They'll do what they can, but it won't help. Their cupboards will soon be bare. Soon. Very soon.

Chavez may be an idiot, but he's no fool. He's started something that won't stop.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

people are losing faith in the system that supposed to protect them. Why? because of moves like "super congresses" and stealth legislation. Even governments cannot truust other governments, which means gold IS the worlds currency, bar none..

 

they want their fuckin gold...they want possesion.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

$300 to $400?  Promise?  I'd consider it a bargain if they can hammer the gold price down to $1,750.  I'd be buying like a mofo.  Physical, that is.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:02 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

I'm pretty sure -- unless there's some major delivery failure in the near term -- we'll see on last gasp whack-down on gold between now and the end of 2012 (maybe even end of 2011 lol), with a pretty high probability of a -$200 correction. It'll be on good news, margin calls, or whatever the manipulation de jour is. But that will be the end of it.

Silver, so manipulated I'd be shocked if we didn't see sub $40s in the next couple months again.

For both of them, the control is slipping away, and once it's done, zoom!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:10 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Troll Magnet,

You will when the price is fixed by EO, and or confiscation EO is in place.

The System must go on......................

Silver will be slower, much slower moving (thank you,add to positions), this time, a LOT of folks got burned badly due to the last fast run up(Worldwide).

Indians are steering clear of it in droves, and the Gold price will be the catalyst that drags it higher.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Uh huh, and we know the majority is always right...  Slower moving?  From $34 to now near $43?  Yeah, I'll take that kind of slower.  :)

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:44 | Link to Comment FLIP THAT BOND
FLIP THAT BOND's picture

In a few months everyone will be saying, "we'll never see $150 silver again."

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:56 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

And in a few years, "we'll never see silver (or other precious metals on sale for fiat) again."

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:55 | Link to Comment JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

The COMEX will soon feel like Gadhafi

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Ah yes, silver......

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment devilsindetails
devilsindetails's picture

Silver who??

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment devilsindetails
devilsindetails's picture

SILVER $500.00 BITCHEZZZ.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Yeah, I'm optimistic but damn...  What do you base that on?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:41 | Link to Comment ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

>> What do you base that on?

Are you kidding? 500usd sillver is fucking LOW.

Try FIVE THOUSAND DOLLAR SILVER - OR HIGHER!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Okay; I believe that would be called "free-basing".  Damn...  But I like the way you think!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Ill have what he's having.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:58 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Supply and Demand. It'll take a few years; I think.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment rich_wicks
rich_wicks's picture

You want to see my predictions?

Why I think silver is doing to $350 easily, and gold to $9000

But maybe it won't.  Time will tell.

HIstory is a good guide.  You can measure one commodity against another, but you can't measure against money.  I'm measuring against the commodity of US government debt.  Perhaps tough, this time, US debt will simply go into default.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Me

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Where in the hell do have to live to NOT KNOW what/who silver is?  That shit is EVERYWHERE!  Hell, you can stroll out of your house with $5 in your pocket and you can dig that shit out of the ground yourself!  Duh...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:42 | Link to Comment ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

What the fuck are you talking about?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I was responding the person who wrote, "Silver Who?"

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Barbarism bitchez!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment dojiman
dojiman's picture

Down with the Morgue, monster boxes on the way bitches.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:02 | Link to Comment pain_and_soros
pain_and_soros's picture

Hi Ho Silver!!

Several tweets this am to the effect that Interactive Brokers Warns Gold Margin Hike Imminent & that CME Next.

 

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

 

 

"Looking good, Ag!"

"Feeling good, Billy Ray!"

 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:10 | Link to Comment WinstonWolfe
WinstonWolfe's picture

$300 gold aint never happening even with a 100% margin increase.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

Winston W,

ONE can hope though huh?.

WE WISH it would drive it down $300.00, add ammo/RELOAD, and watch it jump back on the rocket ship in 4-8 weeks.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Here's hoping.  I would be backing up the freaking Lexus for that.  lol

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 05:27 | Link to Comment theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Sell the lexus and buy more

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:11 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Margin hikes will not be nearly as effective as the weak hands have already been shaken out.

as silver has usually lagged gold, it may be lagging gold in becoming a currency and is getting

ready to make a major move up, this time with much stronger hands involved. Last August 

silver traded at $18 oz and ran up to $50 before being pushed back. This August silver is 

trading above $40 and could easily go to $100+ before the end of spring 2012. This is not

wishful thinking. This is a conservative forecast given the present conditions of the world's

monetary system.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

1st stop, 68th St = pay off the house

Next stop, 79th St = remodel master

Next stop, 110th St = Buy new car

Last Stop ??????

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment The Peak Oil Poet
The Peak Oil Poet's picture

 

 

i surely do love silver
i surely do love gold
they'll be as they are trusted now
and since the days of old

 

http://thepeakoilpoet.blogspot.com/2011/08/i-surely-do-love-silver.html


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Silver tastes a lot like chicken.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

You have to give me that recipe.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:23 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Check out the access markets bitchezz! http://www.allamericanindex.com/commodityfutures/Metals

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Ok, watch me chuckle....

Last week I cashed out my $4000 Put investment against GS and JPM at $14000 and bought $12,000 in Silver at 38.37 at a dollar over spot.

This whole meltdown is too predictable.  Bought a scooter with the difference.  Prepare for a world where Oil is very very expensive.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Wasn't there just a report of an excess at Cushing?  No, I'm not buying into the "Oil is very very expensive" thing just yet.  In fact, I want a biturbo AMG mercedes from my silver profits.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:52 | Link to Comment theotheri
theotheri's picture

I welcome that world. I'm big on Alberta.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

I have no way to know if that's true but it's worth a plus 1 even as a fantasy!!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

where do you get silver at a dollar over spot?, seriously.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:59 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Volume is important but if you want to buy enough silver rounds...I have always bought more than 300 ounces physical...send me a pm at homeburke@yahoo.com. Buying out of state saved taxes too.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 05:29 | Link to Comment theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Ah, I wonder if the whiley old Jim Rogers did the same thing - or is that you Jim!

You mean a kiddies oil free push scooter?? Cool!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:30 | Link to Comment lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

and the best part is that there seems to be a very nice bid under the "market" price which is quickly bid on slight pullbacks.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:34 | Link to Comment pleseus
pleseus's picture

Once silver breaks $ 50.00 oz it could run straight to $ 75.00 oz.   People will shit their pants and it will sell off hard.  It will eventually make it's way to $ 100.00 oz.  It may take a year or two to get there, considering all of the margin hikes and manipulation along the way.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment theotheri
theotheri's picture

Silver hits $30 before it hits $50.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

If it was going to correct below 30, it would have topped at 41.50ish on august 4th and never violated that daily high.  It is now going to trend strongly for weeks and test above the 50s.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:30 | Link to Comment lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

you may be right so go ahead and put your money where your mouth is like many of us silver and gold bulls have done. many like me have most of their investment money in silver and gold. step up. get short in size.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:24 | Link to Comment pleseus
pleseus's picture

If you bought silver at $ 48.00 oz a few months ago I can see why you would say that.  If you bought it at $ 18.00 oz a year ago and you are still long I don't see why you would sell at this point considering the strength in gold. 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:55 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

i wish!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment plata pura
plata pura's picture

A GSR of 42.89 be intolerable and a natural abomination. Verily if you can trade 42 ozt of .999ag for 1ozt of .999au consider it a gift of good grace and accept said gift. Furtherermore if you can trade a currency from around the sphere for physical metal; especially the precious and to some extent it's lessor cousin gold that do it and trade the gold for the precious post haste. Look for the 1/1 trade of 1ozt .999ag for one u.sbarrel of light sweet crude........  

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:00 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Agreed 100%

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:54 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Price suppression failure. Now we can see the first true competitor to the dollar. Bank failure galore from here forward.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Thankyou,

Silver is the common mans metal.  After all, give me a commodity that has has industrial uses second to oil (solar, water purification, electronics, medical), is scarcer than gold in above ground supplies, Trades at a 45:1 ratio to gold and is produced at a 16:1 ratio, has a paper derivative of about 150:1 ( that's right lot's of claim tickets on every available ounce, ever buy a raffle ticket?, thats the SLV ETF), and its just fun, fun, fun to hold some in your hand.

God dammit go out and buy some physical Monday morning.  Its still under 50 bucks!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Silver is the common mans metal.

Not for long!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:04 | Link to Comment pan
pan's picture

Syria up next for "liberation" and 15kg of ag per cruise missile bitchez!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Sheeet; forgot about Syria, maybe I will be buying two biturbo AMG's.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:29 | Link to Comment firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

Remember silver?

You mean the physical metal that was $18 a year ago and is now over $42?

Yeah, I heard, then bought, then I smile.

There will be a day to sell but not until reason is being considered in D.C.

When the V.P. calls those who support a balanced budget, "terrorists".  It's time to keep buying precious metals.  That seems rather obvious to me.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:47 | Link to Comment firefighter302
firefighter302's picture

How many of the opinions of silver's demise are from folks who were wrong last year , too?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:03 | Link to Comment silver is money
silver is money's picture

Once we break 50 dollar level, we will quickly see 75, probably before the end of this year.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Why do I feel the need to light up?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Mad Man
Mad Man's picture

I'm sure the margin hikes are going hit gold very shortly (probably even in the next 24 hrs). However I'm thinking silver could benefit from this. Perhaps the increase in the silver price is as a result of people 'switching' from gold into silver in anticipation?

I think the big fork in the road is coming Thursday. With so much negativity surrounding QE I don't see how the FED can justify another round of stimulous so soon.

Thus I'm thinking hold onto silver for the next 3 days to get the bleeders from gold, then sell out before FED J Hole speech, where Mr B will no doubt talk do nothing but talk bullsh*t. Markets thus get a deflationary scare... which I wouldn't think would be good for the PM's and we will see a very sharp correction...

Thoughts?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Well, obviously it's up to you- but timing this market seems awfully dicey to me.  I might try it with unleveraged paper that I could afford to lose, but not with physical metal- everything is too uncertain right now, and you could lose a lot of ounces very quickly.  I'm still not convinced that the lack of new QE alone will be enough to kill metals right now- but double-digit rate hikes might be.  That happens, and I guess I just have an expensive coin collection that I can cash in the next time everything goes to hell- should be a couple of years into my retirement, if the pattern holds, and I'll probably need it then.

My personal strategy is to buy set $$$ amounts of silver every couple of weeks, and then use silver/gold price arbitrage when the ratio works to my advantage.  That way, I'm always in the physical PM market, and there's no way to get stuck holding paper when/if the worst case scenario occurs.

Right now, my estimate is that it'd be a good time to trade physical gold for physical silver, and hold the silver until the ratio hits somewhere around 20:1 and then trade the silver back into gold.  I do have a physical bullion dealer who is willing to make ratio trades, and like-kind exchanges are not subject to capital gains taxes, as far as I know.

So far, the strategy is working out fairly well.  What I could not get out of my 401(k) has lost 7.5% this year, while my PM investment is at a positive 9%.  Some have done far better by timing the market, but I've just been buying regardless of price.  If it really spikes high, or if something changes the big picture, I might alter that strategy, but for now it's a net gain, and I'm happy enough with that, especially when everything else is getting taken to the woodshed.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:21 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

CME OPEX this week too, isn't it?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:26 | Link to Comment El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

Look out, I'm about to buy.  Watch it crash as soon as I do.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Silver Surfer 1985
Silver Surfer 1985's picture

I'm not so certain about this move, though I'm no expert, but the PMs are running up betting that the Fed announces a 'printing' move QE 3, or Operation Twist, whatever they may call it. When the Fed doesn't announce a major print @ Jackson Hole, PMs tank (temporarily) and commodities bulls bail and finally we see the S & P 500 @ 900-950 or so, doing the 'dirty work' to set the Fed up to print at a later date, say November date or beginning of 2012 likeBob Janjuah said they would.

Don't get me wrong, I'm big silver & gold bull, but this could be another of our soon-to-get-used-to central planning moves by the Fed. I hope not, but fear this will be the case from their recent language and three members who dissented on the current board.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

I don't necessarily think Jackson Hole will have much impact on PMs.  Whether Bernake announces printing or not, the situation around the world ain't better and dollar/euro/yen/franc are all shit compared to PMs.  People are starting to catch on that concept now.  TPTB are boxed in and there is no way out of this mess.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:44 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

there's always a dirty bomb

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Mad Man
Mad Man's picture

Agree 100% mid to long term. However, you don't think there could be a deflationary environment for a short time if the FED doesn't do anything Thursday? In which case USD would be the thing to hold...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:47 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Silver to $50! And after $55 she goes parabolic motherfuckers!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:05 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Price charts never become "parabolic"; this is internet ignorance. they become exponential; the silver chart is already exponential; which is not usually a good sign.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

By jove, you're right- kind of.

It's been a long time since Algebra class.  Have to be a pretty nasty crash beforehand to be a parabolic graph- but that does assume that time is flowing in both a positive and a negative direction, and that's tough to prove in most circles- and completely irrelevent to the discussion at hand, as I am interested in my investment's future growth, not some thing that involves irrational numbers to achieve.

Semantics aside, the exponental growth of the silver price as measured in FRNs is not a good sign- but it's not necessarily a sign that silver is going to crash.  The curve is still far more shallow than that of the money supply.

Since the money supply is the problem, it makes a lot of sense to look at things in terms of something more useful than debt-based paper money.

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-IZ2gGIVSzZs/TXGG5_43qqI/AAAAAAAAAM4/ZBtshhJePcg/s1600/2000s+Gold+Silver+Oil+Ratios.png

Looks far more sensible, doesn't it?  Still a bull market, but a mild one, and not nearly so violent.  The chart above is the one that counts, not the price of commodities in "dollars."  After all, there is no reason to hold paper dollars, if it is not with the expectation that you can trade them at a future time for tangible goods.  So, while you can buy far less oil with paper dollars now- you can actually purchase more oil with silver or gold.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:35 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

Yawn...  Been in since 6; gonna be in for much more.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:54 | Link to Comment Mad Man
Mad Man's picture

I'm sure they are going to hike gold.... but maybe I'm thinking they could also hike silver today....

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:58 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

If they raise margins and knock PMs down, you can bet people will be lining up to buy the dip this time.  I know where my paper. well, digital money's going if that happens.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Mad Man
Mad Man's picture

I agree to some extent. However there are still weak hands in I think. There has been a LOT of fear in the markets lately leading to high PM's.... Look at the volume of silver trades recently.... I don't want to get caught with the herd and be a sheeple on this one

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:54 | Link to Comment JB
JB's picture

Barbarous relics bitchez!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Hold many barbarous ounces of relics, all who bitchez here!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:46 | Link to Comment shutdown
shutdown's picture

Bring it on. I don't care. Really. It's overall on an upward trajectory ... fast or faster. Either way, the escalator is moving up.  There is no force that can stop it ... market tinkering will only serve to slow it ... temporarily.  

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 22:53 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That's right.  Personally, I like it when silver goes on sale- more oz for fewer FRNs means more silver in my pirate chest.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 23:49 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Fellas, this is a silver bull inside a corrupted and nearly-thoroughly discredited economic system, so, let's not forget the preeminent maxim of 21st century trading: BTFDYFI - that is, whenever that FD occurs.

Thank me in 2012, or sooner.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:03 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

TPTB simply aren't going to let silver & gold race up. 

The Fed can put unlimited funds behind naked shorts to keep PMs supressed in spot markets, and order margin hikes when runups occur.

Silver and gold are defacto competition to the US dollar.  The Fed doesn't like competition.

 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:29 | Link to Comment Shut The Front Door
Shut The Front Door's picture

You just had to say "behind" and "naked" didn't ya?  And, with an image like that, how can you be cranky?

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:43 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

KIndly shed the obnoxious avatar and negative attitude. You apparently are one of the billions of unprepared persons.

Grow a pair, or buy a pair of ben wa balls for your ex-girlfriend.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 02:39 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

Perhaps you should go back to your little (religious?) fantasyland.  We'll get along fine here in the real world without you.

Run along now.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 00:57 | Link to Comment dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

Whether silver gets knocked down or moves up I'm still gonna buy and hold. I buy as a savings for my son. I just cannot see keeping dollars or trying to put it into bonds or stocks for the sake of a long term savings. Plus, if we do have a strong deflation, in which the dollar becomes "exponential" won't that just equate to a government default due to a huge drop in dollars in circulation? If you cut the amount of dollars in existence by half that's equivalent to doubling debts!

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 01:14 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

the rate the dollar is being devalued is insane.  i'm up like 2 grand a day/avg on my PM's, and the scary thing is they aren't really increasing in value.

the disconnect between these commodities and day to day living expesenses can only go on for so long.

the only question now is how long until the paradigm shift?

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 01:20 | Link to Comment pappyhlace
pappyhlace's picture

so given that the market is pricing in a LSAP of ~500bil by the FED

what avg price are we looking for by years end?

given QE2 was ~600bil, i'd say $100 wouldn't be too shocking...

SILVER BITCHES!!!

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 03:51 | Link to Comment shadowboxer
shadowboxer's picture

...and all in time to deliver Chavez his 99 tons

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 05:03 | Link to Comment Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Just remember (those new to silver) there is a downside gap to close first) although it may close quick,if buying physical wait for gap to close about $42.95.may overshoot a bit lower.

Being in an uptrend in a small bull market,corrections will come but be short lived barring of course, criminal manipulation,Freak crisis,whatever.Some buyers that bought cheap are going to sell at certain areas do not let that hold you back.

 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

you must be talking about slv or something.  in the futures market silver trades 24 hours a day and only creates gaps from friday night to sunday evening ... but those are all filled except the gap down on may 1st

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 10:56 | Link to Comment valuetrader
valuetrader's picture

My personal opinion on the margin calls trick is that it is not going to work this time. I think it is physical buying for the most part and margin calls are irrelevant. We will see what happens but the houses on Comex are very good at what they do - understand the market positioning well. If they think (and with them it will not be a guess but knowledge) that there are lots of leverage players in silver futures, then we are surely going to see margins go up. If they think that the longs are not leveraged, then there maybe no margin increases at all. They will simply prefer to keep their bullets for a later better opportunity. Basically, the way I would interpret no margin increases is that buying is very strong.

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