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As A Reminder, Here Are The Monthly NFP Seasonal Adjustments

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With the revised consensus of the NFP number due out in under 30 minutes at precisely 100,000 (because 99,963.333 and 101,492.5 are not quite as round, memorable and thresholdy), we remind readers that in June the average seasonal adjustment over the past decade comes to just over 1 million. These are 1 million jobs that do not exist but are merely added, or in June's average case, subtracted from the actual number, to make them fit a regression pattern. In other words, the marginal number that will determine whether or not we have a NEW QE will be far less than 10% of what the statistical adjustment to the actual June number itself will be.

Monthly seasonal adjustment to Nonfarm Payroll number over past decade:

Average monthly seasonal adjustment to Nonfarm Payroll number over past decade:

 


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Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:10 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

These are 1 million jobs that do not exist but are merely added

 

That's good.......right?

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:10 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Totally bullish on Wavy gravy numbers.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Death people have jobs to you know. Any voter has!

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:48 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

China keeps building cites for them.....I guess they have jobs. Clearly they do vote.

 

 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment I should be working
I should be working's picture

No it's bad, 80k jobs +/- 1M instead of 100k +/- 1M.

Why anyone cares about these rounding errors is beyond me.

The economy sucks +/- 0.1%...

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment terryg999
terryg999's picture

How do those numbers play out during an election year?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:16 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

You honestly still think a vote means something don't you?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Votes mean something.  All the money invested in paperless, easily hacked "technology", recent laws clearly designed to reduce the number of registered voters, a supreme court decision paving they way for unlimited campaign spending..

 

Votes must mean something, but I don't know mine counts.

 

+1

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Galactic Superwave
Galactic Superwave's picture

A vote certainly means something:

Before the SCOTUS decision creating super pacs, the equation was approximately:

1 Vote = $55 spent from special interests (and all other sources) to buy that vote.

Super Pacs have now made that a much larger quantity.

1 Vote = $89 estimated.

So, your vote is costing someone a lot of money. Now, don't we feel "special".

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

During my voting time since 2000, the NFP numbers aren't inflated/deflated much during election years.  Quite independent of the process.

Now gas prices........THAT'S a red herring during election years.  Consumers usually see the lowest gas prices during their lives during election years since the 80s.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Think of a number, add or subtract a number..

that is just as effective as the make believe BlatantLieS numbers

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:18 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

So when some poor soul gets killed in Iraq or Afghanistan is that considered job creation given that a replacement is needed?

Job statistics count for nothing unless the income generated from employment by the bottom 50% is actually rising faster than inflation plus more.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:26 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Job statistics count for nothing unless the income generated from employment by the bottom 50% is actually rising faster than inflation plus more.

Right; don't focus on job creation, but quality of jobs.

Rick Perry saying he created jobs, where most of those were because DelTaco expanded and needed to hire some immigrants and 16 year olds, is not what the country needs.  Ditto with President "I was a waitor while he was in office" Obama.

Really, TPTB and the corporations they bankroll don't want incomes to rise because they know they can control a populace, which unlike them, actually show responsiblity for their debts. 

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Everyone needs a jobs (yes multiple)

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Everyone needs a jobs (yes multiple)

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

A 35% Tax on all incoming products from countries that illegally manipulate their currency would do nicely, to increase the quality of jobs in this country.

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 08:32 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It is called mathurcation.,.

You fiddle the numbers until you get the answer you want,,,

You can also get demonstrations of it at WUWT....

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

By the way, has anyone seen an explanation as to the logic which justifies these manipulations adjustments, beyond regression analysis that is ??

Look at all the adjustments this number get:  Birth/Death Model then  the seasonal factor.  Do they publish the raw number anywhere?

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 09:21 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

BINTHERE:

"... logic which justifies these manipulations ..."

At this point, I'm thinking the authors' very survival.  And, for them, there is no way out.

- Ned

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