This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Retail Investors Ignore "Generational" Opportunity To Buy Stocks One More Week

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The week ended April 11th is when equities finally rolled over. Which is why those curious how retail fund flows did in the past week will not be very surprised: if individual investors avoided stocks like Bernie Madoff Asset Management on the way up, there is no reason why they should change their mind on the way down. Sure enough, in the past week, $1.5 billion was withdrawn from domestic equities. Instead, cash, solely with the aim of capital preservation enter taxable bond funds, as it has for the past 3 years now. With the latest redemption, total 2012 flows to date are over $25 billion, or more than double the comparable amount in 2011. It appears that retail has seen right through the once in a lifetime opportunity, and is withdrawing money from stocks at the fastest pace ever, irrelevant of what the myth formerly known as the "market" actually does.

And something a tad odd: the orange arrows are of identical length, and are inclined at exactly the same angle.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...can't get fooled again! Bitchez!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Average Joe continues to kick ass and sell strength...leaving equity positons to the dumb money in the market...Wall Street serial liars!

Way to go Wall Street...you killed your own golden goose. <golf clap>

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Not to worry, Ben has you covered and is buying what they sell with electronic 0's and 1's

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke will own the whole world!  THE WHOLE WORLD!!  MUAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

I wonder if Bernanke got his script from the movie "The International." It sure as shit seems like it.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Sadly stupid Americans do not turn off ALL TV, all newsmedia and all of Hollywood's shit.  They enable and empower the elites and the regime/matrix byswitching on their TV.  I am sure quite a few dumb f***ks posting here watch O TV.  

Americans traded their liberty for a clicker. 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

The only way to win is not to play.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

yes...and Ted Nugent ain't playin'. He shitz all over the regime ..... and the SS is on his tail.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57415870-503544/secret-service-to-interview-ted-nugent/

 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There you go. Yeah, Ted Nugent is a threat.  Your tax dollars hard at work.  You know the SS officiers will brag about interviewing Ted on their facebook pages afterwards.  Bloody pods.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

Our Ted has grown up from the days when he shitzed all over himself.

"He claims that 30 days before his draft board physical, he disavowed personal hygiene. The last ten days he ingested nothing but junk food and Pepsi, and with a week to go until the physical, he stopped using the bathroom altogether. When the big day came, he had been living in excrement-caked and urine-stained pants."

http://campusprogress.org/articles/ted_nugent

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

wasn't that Zappa?

I just read the article. Written by morons for other commie morons.

Nobody is forcing the metrosexual author to buy into any of Ted's shit.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

No. It was Ted. It's well documented.

I didn't read the article and nobody forced you to. I just provided the link to the article I referenced so that the quote I provided could be verified so don't bitch to me like a whiney little woman (unless you are one, in which case, keep up the good work). Man up, and quit falling for the kleptocracy's divide-and-conquer strategery.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Ted.. is Ted.. and as mentioned above.. our Tax Dollars pay for this interview!

and Ted doenst really give a shit.. he just wants to get some front page time.. so he can charge more to speak.. so he ca go on more hunting trips!

it is all about selling Uncle Ted!

and the fact that Huffington Post is here with this bullshit on full blast?

the sum fucking total of your fucking offering is something Ted? may of may not have done?

you werent there any more than I was so shut the fuck up before you start!

how about some fucking useful info?

just to be different?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

Nugent may end up like Battapaglia, Haines, Breitbart, Carlin, etc.  The judge in the "no Limit Nigga" aka Trayvon martin case has found a way to recuse herself.  She is no dummey.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Yeah, they're too scared to investigate the NBPanthers.

Besides, the NBP supply the hoes and blow!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

they would investigate NBP but they're not cleared to know

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Apparently Columbian tail wasn't enough for them

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Is there anything 80s movies can't teach us?

No. No there isn't.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHWjlCaIrQo

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

... but you cannot win if you do not play

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Truer words were never spoken!!

Back in early 2010 I suggested to my former clients to sell every paper they had and take physical delivery of PM... they are the most joyous people now.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

No problem you just make the bid ask spreads wider. No need for that crazy volume from said muppets.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

I only had 2 grand left in long positions, but I did withdraw it.

Market is clearly overbought.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

I had grand theft in my short positions, until recently.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

The Fed will throw their weight behind it until oil makes them stop. It won't roll over completely until Benanke is taught a brutal public lesson. Every few generations the lessons of history must be relearned. Bernanke's lesson is coming -- although even when he is brought to his knees, he will never admit it. Such is the nature of zealotry.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

he is doing exactly what his controllers want him to do.  destroy the U.S. economy so the banksters can loot anything of value. 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

It'll be interesting to see if oil makes him stop. It might not...

Bernake is the guy [with his car] stuck in the sand convinced that flooring it will eventually get him out.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Keep hoping we can get 10% off of 1420 @ 1278 but seriously doubt we will see anything south of that anytime soon.  If 1360ish holds again, tough to see < unless Europe really breaks or economy really rolls over

Dis: Long european duct tape and chewing gum

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment schatzi
schatzi's picture

but but but..you have to play to win!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture

But the point is also: do retail investors still have some money saved to be put into stocks?

Central planners might argue, but people still needs food to survive.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Goldust
Goldust's picture

I would argue that they largely do not, and that a big portion of the outflows are being used to cover household living expenses (like iPads).  It's no big deal to use up your savings now because that "recovery" is just around the corner.... and all will be well.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:21 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

stocks are a good value. LMFAO

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

But Warren Buffet said so!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Michael Holland too

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

OT:

 

Speaking of retail, if Amazon is "Amazoning" all brick and mortal retailers, why is SPG sitting at all time highs...while toting $18.4 billion in debt?

Yeah...strip mall properties are at all time high valuations...you know, in of book instrument terms.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Using higher mathematics that the silly public simply wouldn't understand, strip malls are simultaneously at all time record highs AND a generational buy. 

/src

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment Robslob
Robslob's picture

Funny...I thought th term "market" by definition is where "individuals" met to "freely" exchange at "fair value" but what the fuck do I know?
Signed,
Retail Trader

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

I promised a friend of mine that I would continue to own junior stocks until gold tops out above $10,000. Thus far, my bullion has advance 456% in 10 years while my junior stock portfolio is down 45% in 10 years. The value-per-ounce has dropped 70% in four years as fewer and fewer buyers are being chased by more and more companies with no cash and lots of gold. Bazaar is the only word for it. Paper is being jettisoned for physical and all turns. Interesting that silver open interest rose 2900 contracts last week while gold dropped 800. I think this means silver is going to have a BIG MOVE but if someone can tell me which direction, I'll give you my ex-wife's telephone number.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

XTRA you bring up a good question. I am a big time Schiff follower. He is relentless with the miners. I believe his heart is in the right place but I am not a total idiot. He manages money. I want to ask him if there is a point where he will throw his hands up and say "FK it....these miners suck. Don't buy them, if you want to benefit from owning precious metals, this is not a good way to do it". It's fighting a losing battle with these things in my opinion. You may as well short treasuries too. It's like fighting a gorilla. Someone is playing games with them. No other way to explain it.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

You know, I feel like an idiot for being heavy on bonds and light on equity, but every time the music has stopped playing the last several years, bonds have been the chairs.  Have some gold too, since gold is the floor.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:45 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Is it really that crazy to have a portfolio of some huge pharmacuticals, some pipeline companies, throw in some Utilities etc....is retail really that smart for not owning these and staying in bonds/cash? Leaving the precious metals out of it for the moment...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment devo
devo's picture

Yes, because earnings will tank before the dollar.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Young adults with tattoos haven't started the buying? /sarc

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They're crushing beer cans against their heads and thinking about the stock market

/src

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

Man you had me going for a minute...

I could be off, time wise here,

but man something is brewing!

 

Something wicked this way comes!

 

I have been saying,

for the past few years, there is no way this is going to end well!

S&P re test of 2009 low's?

I would make book on it!

 

May the good lord watch over this fragile little experiment in freedom we call America

 

God  bless  the  Virtuous

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment divedivedive
divedivedive's picture

For several of the DOW stocks I looked at tonight volume was (excluding 11/25,12/27,12/31) either the lowest or within the 10 lowest days of the last 52 weeks. And that is with market on close orders making up 10% of the volume.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Okay so I can only go by some of these cnbc pikers but their rebuttal to the volume argument is that it is more than being made up for in the dark pools. Do they have a point? Does it matter where these stocks are being bought/sold if they are being bought/sold?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Big hedge funds and large prop desks have always traded solely on dark pools like Sigma X and Liquidnet. And courtesy of Reg ATS only they can pick who play in that sandbox. Oh, and nobody else has any idea what happens intraday volume and tradewise.

Leaking trade data on normal exchanges has always and only been a way to sucker retail in, by believing a certain stock has attracted the attention of a whale, when in reality every public trade is doctored, especially now that it is chopped up into millions of child orders to avoid being frontrun by HFTs.

Dark pool order flow is stable, but it is merely one fund/dealer flipping with another: a better name for dark pools would be closed pools.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Many thanks

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Imagine playing against dark pool players: that would be like playing poker in Vegas and letting the pros mark your cards. That way even when your cards are killer, they still win by pulling their bets. 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

No one is playing against them that you know dude. Your odd lot and dad's managed ETF a/c won't feel a thing. Sucide is painless. Let the dogs eat their oun 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment God Bless The V...
God Bless The Virtuous's picture

.....And what would be catnip to these cat's?

Volume!

As in, off a waterfall.

Look out here, something is brewing,

something different.

This could get nasty, really quickly, to the downside.

Be careful out there, if volume kicks into overdrive, somewhere down the line, margin calls start to go out, its a "Short sellers" dream,

for a few weeks!

Good luck...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

that's soo 2010

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Cramer says takeover bid stalking Best Buy

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Love it how CNBS's big MF advertisers get all the free softball interviews. Bob Doll has an office at the studio. Make me feel goooooood Daddy.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Bunga Bunga

Worst is over ... say said it on TV!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZaHNeNgrcI&feature=player_detailpage#t=384s

 

Open Market Operations have been going on since 1986!

and before the powers that be let any power go.. they will let the Police use those 400 million rounds of haalow points they just bought on all of us!

and the Police Union is HAPPY to do it!

no matter what.. if you want change! or maybe if you just want to stay alive.. you better be buying guns!

fuck gold and silver!

Buy BULLETS!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 01:37 | Link to Comment ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

I have over 10,000 rounds of .223 and 9mm. I think I have enough ammo but I don't think I will ever own enough gold and silver.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Generational opportunity to lose your shirt to a rigged market is more like it. Just wait for it to crumble, is it surely will. Jump in and buy up stocks in the aftermath. The true generational opportunity has not yet presented itself.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Considering the dollar has zero intrinsic value, and that corporations have personhood whether or not Obama or Romney is POTUS, I think the day you could stick a fist full into the S&P at 666 was a pretty decent buy, especially now that the dollar supply has been increased in a parabolic manner since.

This, and nevermind tangible assets, like gold/silver.  We will never see $8 silver again....not even close.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

but I can fold the paper! and the metal hurts when I sit on it!! when its in my pocket!

OOOWWIEEEE!

I dont like OOOOWWWWIEEESS!

The nice man on TV siad things would be GRANDE'!!

LOL!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Is there any left to sell?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment pleseus
pleseus's picture

buy gold and silver

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

M firm seems to be grasping at straws to get its FA's to move their clients into stocks. Out Technical Analysis group, in my view, has become a contrarian signal. Apparently the "Global Wave" has troughed. The wave "peaked" 16 months ago, and now that the economy has shown improvement, it troughed last week---. Either they are unaware of the marginal productivity of debt that became negative in 2006, or they are simply fooling themselves into thinking that the American public will be the bag holder "again".

 

The biggest tell was in late March when Goldman Sachs (not my firm) rolled out A. Joseph Cohen....I mean the "new"A. J Cohen....chief of Asset Mgmt--whatever his name is....top ticked the S&P proclaiming that "it was the best time to buy stocks"  the Sell Side community is despaerate for bag holders.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

You think a generation of Walmart shoppers isn't value conscious?  It is just sophistocated enough to know that a PE ratio should be priced like tube socks.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Maybe I speak only for myself, but when the S&P PE is 8 again, like troughs of cycles past, then I'll jump all in and throw caution to the wind.  Only then.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wake me when it all goes bidless in the electronic/paper world.  Anything of value in the real world will always catch a bid.  What people will be bidding with is another question altogether.  Got physical?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

may i please know how stock market can go up when money is constantly being withdrawn? sheeba

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

Quote stuffing HFT shops/ algo programs that make it appear as if there is a 'market' ...TOTALLY RIGGED CASINO 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 07:40 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

CryingBear,

I think the Market can go up even though Retail is taking Money out.

The reason is that the higher the Market, the higher the value of the Stocks in the say, Hedge Funds account.  The higher the value of their account the more Money they can borrow on Margin to buy more Stocks and again increase the value of their account.

This is why when Goog, Aapl, and Pcln started to Sell off you saw huge reversals in those stocks.  Same with the Money supply.  As people start to pay off or default on their loans it reverses the 10 times leverage. With Stocks as they Sell off the margin ability with regards to Stocks decreases and causes an unwind.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Not to worry, the managed money using derivitaves like ETFs and MFs can always sell intp the HFT bids. Deep, rich, luxurious.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

County weighs suit against Merrill Lynch after loss on $21M investment


Other governments have also sued


April 17, 2012|By Alison Knezevich, The Baltimore Sun

Baltimore County is considering a lawsuit against Merrill Lynch in hopes of recovering millions lost in a bad investment five years ago.

 

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-04-17/news/bs-md-co-investment-los...

The suits just keep on coming :-) They didn't quit after the mega-dotbomb era suits, which followed the junk bond era suits....it's been one long drunken debauch

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

But ay to play was a "SURE THING!"

LOL!!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

once in a lifetime opportunity

Actually I think this sums it up pretty well. Once you lose all your money in this stock market, you’re never going to get a chance to do it again.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

The growth in ETF's more than accounts for the net loss in Mutual Funds.  Even if that were not the case $25 billion loss to the MF's is still small potatoes in the whole of the stock market.  The stock market may be over-valued, manipulated, dangerous, etc., but this MF metric is inconsequential.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 20:35 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Apples and oranges. Retail can jump in and out of ETFs on a whim. Mutual Funds are trapped, predictable, dumb money.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:51 | Link to Comment StockHut
StockHut's picture

The retail investor deserves a large round of applause.  Say no to banksters.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment atlee
atlee's picture

Dejavu all over again. Aren't these the same comments I was reading in early December when we were at 1260 ES bouncing back from 1160? If you are still saying this at 1480 can we get some new material? Lemmings are buying 2 and 3% taxable bonds and that is the intelligent move? You may be right eventually but sure tastes like sour grapes to me. Rip away muppets but please, some new material please. 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I don't know any retail investors selling stocks to buy bonds. Where'd you get that intel Fonz?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Who the fuck is junking every good comment?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Made my day...thanks... +1

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 02:25 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Bobby Brusca's revenge

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Just sell puts WAAAAY OTM (always admired the 'picking up nickels in front of a steamroller' analogy) and force the banksters to crush the market in order to get your dough...

All they have to do is short the...oh wait...they're all the chumps long at this point and they'd get killed doing so.

Nevermind.

sarc

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment MBOB
MBOB's picture

Salsi Puedes. 

"Hotfoot it."

Mexican expression for "vote with your feet."

In this case, el Mercado del Securitas.

 

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 03:29 | Link to Comment Watson
Watson's picture

If you believe that 'this time is *not* different', why do you ascribe predictive value to retail getting it wrong (by not being long in a rising market)?

Retail has been wrong about just about everything for many, many years. Remember housing, or Internet stocks or (for those with longer memories) mining stocks?
And the Florida land boom makes for some good historical reading too...

There are plenty of serious problem indicators out there (the failure to properly resolve (1) the housing/mortgage mess, (2) the TBTF issue), so why use a 'rubber ruler' when steel ones are available?

Watson

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 06:24 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

This is good news for individual investors.  Individual investors are evolving from making big profits to wealth preservation.  Really good news.

 

The market indexes are a good barometer of what your individual investments may do.  The market indexes do not show a lot of strength at the moment.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/djia/daily/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!