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Retail Investors Pull $140 Billion From Equity Funds In 2011 Which Close The Year With 19 Consecutive Outflows
The Santa rally into the year end was taken good advantage of by retail America. As ICI reports, in the week ending December 28, investors pulled another $3.988 billion out of domestic equity mutual funds (and $1.2 billion out of foreign equtiy funds). This represents the 19th consecutive outflow since a tiny inflow in mid-August, which if excluded would mean 36 consecutive weeks of outflows beginning in late April, or roughly the time when the market peaked. Altogether a whopping $140 billion has been redeemed from domestic equity-focused mutual funds, which compares to "only" $98 billion in 2010. Unfortunately for the permabulls, the rangebound market since then indicates that absent retail investors returning to the broken casino that is the equity market, the probability of another break out of previous high is slim to nil. In fact as the chart below confirms judging by how long the area chart has been negative (or in outflow territory), the only thing Joe Sixpack wants is to get his money out of the rigged ponzi scheme pronto. And the longer the market trades like an irrational, pustular (for all the 19 year old HFT Ph.D's out there) and outright rabid teenager, the more investors will just say no and park their cash in either taxable bond funds (another $1.2 billion inflow in the past week), in their mattress or in gold. And unlike the Fed, equity funds can not print their own money: given enough redemptions and the liquidation selling will be inevitable. It also means that following $140 billion in redemptions with the market ending unchanged, the leverage used by mutual funds, whose cash is already at record lows, must be at record levels. And we all know how "record leverage" situations end...
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Who needs retail investors when the central banksters print and their proxies churn?!
Panic first,
BITCHEZZZZZZZ
CHEERS!
Show me all the facts, stats, and common sense you want about the market going down. Its not happening. They will rip this market to the moon and make new highs. Get all the retail investors all giddy again to sucker them back in...... then it will crash.
Long equities & short PM. Why? Because it's the wrong dam trade and that is whats working right now. Retard Methodolgy in bizzaro world is what I call it.
If you want to lose money keep shorting and looking at facts. If you want to make money and have a green P&L use the retard method.
I said it once and I will say it again. The wrong trade is the right trade in a rigged, munipulated, & HFT market.
Best post of the new year. I could not agree more. I pull a Costanza lately and do the opposite of what is rational and it almost always works out in these markets.
Same here!
not that there's anything wrong with that...
Howdy Slewie -
We may have just signed up, but that doesnt mean we werent lurking for a year, educating ourselves on things not learned in college, reading, preparing, deleveraging, etc. This place can be intimidating, helps to swim before heading to Todos Santos; but this is fight club. Your insight has been appreciated for a while.
Been doing that a while.. When every position you take is "wrong"- just flip sides of the trade.... God that was the hardest thing and best thing I ever did for my trading
My .03
The smart ones agree with you. The others will soon come to attack..
A valid point indeed. When that crash arives...it will be messy.
Am not long any equities here (long US HY and long EU IG however) but you speak the truth. First few months of the year looks like primetime for the insitutions to rape the indices higher burning any and all retail shorts that thought a market crash was a "sure thing".
Or you could stop trying to outsmart the insiders and not play their game at all.
When it comes to a rigged game, that seems to be a LOT smarter strategy. And that's why Joe Sixpack won't be getting back into the market.
Banker's Proxies are calling loans and credit lines to small businesses... this story is by the LA Times... BOA wants it's money (really our money) now and they don't care how long your biz has been a customer in good standing.
"Bank of America servering some small business credit lines"
"Bank of America Corp., under pressure to raise capital and cut risks, is severing lines of credit to some small-business owners who have used them to stay afloat.
The Charlotte, N.C., bank is demanding that these customers pay off their credit line balances all at once instead of making monthly payments. If they can't pay in full, they are being offered new repayment plans for as long as five years, but with far higher interest rates than their original credit lines had."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-credit-cutoff-20120103,0,3538902.story
Seems contrary to their advertisements last week.
So how much of the outflow is the shrinking middle class raiding their 401k piggy banks to make ends meet?
Safe to say they're not all pulling funds due to market distrust.
Get out now before it is too late.
What? And miss next phase in this everlasting bull market? CNBS talking heads laugh at your suggestion!
Fucking reminds me of government agencies that grow into massive bureaucracies protecting this or that piece of common judicial turf then they start suing each other or said common judicial turf to expand their bureaucracies with lawyers and layers of bureaucrats to fight the other bureaucrats over the common judicial turf which produces shit for the people.
It all a game for the bastards at the top and the peasants get the bill.
Hmmm - I wonder if this outflow isn't a function of our aging baby boomers combined with the declining wealth of the middle income Americans as well as the increased unemployment among them.
...or some of us just parking our 401k in the cash fund, dialing down to minumum match, and buying more PMs. Fuck this shit.
I guess my employer is still putting something in my 205.5k, 'cuz I sure as hell ain't, though inflow is there....
I have $10 large that is stuck in my company's 401k that I want to withdraw yesterday. Would gladly pay the penalty and tax to trade it for some gold coins. Fuckers.
No can do unless you leave the company. Try taking a loan against it but you probably won't get 100% of the money out.
Same here my friend. Fuckers indeed. At least take out a loan if you can & get some AuAg .223/5.56 7.62 hookers & blow.
Yippee, more for me! (sarcasm)
Now, if one sits back and thinks about it....this means people in need of funds are pulling out or the American retail public is smarter than many would believe. Neither bodes well for the future.
i will make my last withdrawl very soon....within days...just to help them out...and no bond funds...no mattress....
Mine will be in ~April... and NEVER again will money voluntarily go into it... think how granny views saving after the great depression... burned badly enough, behaviors are curbed forever... or, in this case, the fear of being burned and watching everyone else get torched.
Not sure what to do with the proceeds... although about anything is still better than what would happen with the purchasing power it will have by the time I could pull it out without penalty.
My boss still thinks I am bat shit crazy for never putting a dime in a 401k. I figured why let some douche bag make 1+% in annual fees to "manage" (read "lose") my life's savings. They take their cut off the top regardless of whether I win or lose. I refuse to participate in this fucked up scam for the financially illiterate.
Buy gold bitches!
140 billion out of how much? What is the total number?
Trillions of dollors But USDs are not worth the paper they are not printed on. Piece of paper > $100 Bill > 1kg of Santorum > $100 in bank account > $100 CDS contract > value of American jobs a Romney presidency will provide
Romney... isn't this a divide by zero problem?
Play Monopoly with US FRNs...around the corner. You can have fiat money parties that cost $1M to setup and the buyin is $50K. Of course, everone with a job will be making $20M a year. It will cost $1000 to drive to your friends house across town. Cost food and drinks per person $1000.
Hyperinflation lifestyle.
Thus far, we're falling incredibly short of that whole wage increase thing... not even a nominal increase...
Inflation does that.
Actually, according to common thought, wages are supposed to rise in an inflationary environment... this is what caviar keeps harping about... our biflationary nightmare. The cost of living increases, but wages do not. (if using definitions other than the simple increase in the money supply for inflation).
fonzan- about 8 trillion. The $140 billion outflow is not even 2% in the last 12 months.
I've read that these stats don't take into account flows into etf's, etn's, etc. Anyone have some difinitive info?
Knew someone with some sizable capital pull his money out and purchased stable bonds. Tired of playing with the HFT BOTs. In other words the Primary market HFT BOTs can go "F" themselves. Let the HFT trading BOTs trade with themselves until one of them causes their owner's accounts to blow up. Just sit back and watch the super computers trade with each other while your collecting a consistant income.
OT, but something just hit me;
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/...
Although Chinese holdings of US Treasuries remain relatively static, given that US debts have increased by $1.6tn over the past year, their overall stake of total US debts have declined from 8.7% to 7.6%.
All hail Bernanke's magic debt potion!
Can't eat them mutual fund NAVs, baby. Can't get no iPad 2 either. Redemptions bitchez.
The retail investor is shaken
They've started to slowly awaken
The market they laud
Has turned to a fraud
And all of their wealth has been taken.
Shouldn't we expect continued redemptions? As the baby boomers age and are required to retire early due to forced layoffs etc...they will start drawing on their retirements and 401Ks. Someone should have told them to make sure the next generation of income earners were large enough to buy whatever assets they were going to sell. So who do the largest richest generations of Americans sell their highly inflated equities to? At some point the baby boomers are going to realize that their equities are being killed by deflationary pressures and when they do they will sell in mass and run into Gov't bonds....oh wait a minute. That has already happened.
Pushed from a bad ponzi scheme to an even worse one.
Duck, come sit here with me.
What generational problem? Did you miss the memo that the USA was going to annex Mexico? Mexico has millions of fat 6th grade educated gringos and gringos that will support your fat lazy American ass.
Yep, the Boomers are buying the shit out of bonds. My wife sees it first hand. They just don't get any smarter do they?
Blind faith in the US Govt, given by Progressive/Socialist/Decepticrats?? Naw, you're jerkin' my chain!
Just imagine that 140+ billion retail cash on the sidelines buying back in as confidence returns and all the news reports talk of a better economy. DOW 14,000 by year end. Don't think for a second the hopium will decrease as Obama will open the flood gates of good news (true or not) and QE in the next few months. ZH already reported the voting change at FED. You don't need red carpet or a special memo. The only question is; will SPX drop down to 1,100 range one more time in Feb/March before QE, or will QE be introduced at current levels. And what impact will EU and Iran have on US markets. Either way, many equities are down 60-70% from six months ago and ready to bounce. Buy 30% now, 30% in early Feb, and save last 40% to BTFD- if it ever happens.
Many people enjoy their time in a casino; but after walking out dazed, penniless, and hungover a couple of times a great many never go back - and decide that a movie at home, popcorn, a glass of cold water, and their significant other is a much better time.
we know code for porn when we see it, eb
there is some idea here of these billion$ being "on the sideline" but these aren't banks
at least a few of these are people who paid down debt, bought other "assets" PMs, supplies, popcorn, medicine, and porn. and let's have them blowing away their TVs, too, while we're hopeful, here!
these amounts can be seen, perhaps, as zeroHeadge readers' attempts to keep up w/ the waves of corporate insider selling reported here last year, during the PRINT waves of QE I & II
Hey, I go to the casino about every other month and enjoy the comped room and meals and tea and coffee, enjoy the noise and my spouse freaking over a 29 buck win on a .40 bet and get to console her after we leave because the darn machine went cold. Yeeee haah. We only spend fiat we get from selling stuff on ebay we buy at garage sales, so it really isn't costing us anything, right.
Sounds like you and Wifey have things under control, good on you.
I was alluding to the dazed 401K investor circa 1988-2008, but I get your point.
If I were there at the casino with you and yours I would buy you some drinks and gamble with 'ya.
Best of luck on the coming garage sales, and invest in property, guns, ammo, Gold, and Silver (as well as your Marriage).
You'd be a fool to think even half of that money can come back into the market. A lot of people who could remove thier money entirely did so. They aren't going to open another account and play the game again.
Then there is that other group, from which I know a few, who pulled all the money they had as a last ditch effort at surivival. That money isn't going back in there either, because it has been spent.
You could throw a 6 month bull party and still see lower than past volume and entry from retail. I've been out so long. I cashed my chips in and don't really think about it anymore. Might has well play three card poker as I think the odds are better.
me too
people who play 3-card have the best gambling stories, tho, don't they?
See Bernank print. Print, Bernank, print!
Oh, oh, see Gold/Silver go up. Up, up up!
My, my, so high up it goes.
"Fun with ZeroHedge and Tyler"
Now, lets anwser the following question: "what money is driving the market up?"
"Liquidity injections." Ben Bernanke.
Anally Injected Debt Serum?
Exchange Stability Fund. Enuff said.
Yup, ESF, the FED, IMF, BIS... it's a shell game with a single pea and rehypothecated shells. We can't win their game.
"...the only thing Joe Sixpack wants is to get his money out of the rigged ponzi scheme pronto."
Exactly.
A declining over fee'd 401K balance doesn't buy any PBR, or pay the mortgage, or the sickcare bill, or the taxman, or...
...or let me reset my situation. I can afford PBR (if I wanted that shit), my mortage, my healthcare and the IRS. Call me "Joe" whatever. I can get a lot of my money out if I just fuck my credit up, blow off my mortgage (on a house I'm not upside down in, but has magically lost 25% of value). If I could just yank my money, pay the vig, and move on I would buy my dream house in the Pennsylvania mountains (a cabin on a few acres--camp), Still get my kids to and through college while planning for my retirement on my own. Fuck this shit.
Only way to get retail back into the Market is run it up to Dow 14,000.
Then they will all run back in to get creamed again.
Retail is taking that money out for one reason. To live off of it and it's not going back in.
Exactly.
Most of that retail money paid last months electric bill and is putting gas in the tank now that the cards are maxed out.
Half of that 140 bil. is spent, a large part went to the tax man. Poof, it's gone.
My retail money won't go back in. Period. I have better luck renting a dumpy house. Next "investment" is a SMG. Only buying shit I can see makes me sleep a hell of a lot better at night.
Exactly- retail will buy at the top as usual.
The average "investor" looks at the 401k or IRA once every few months and completely relies upon their "money manager" to navigate the market. They are not pulling out anything becuase they either can't do it w/o penalty, or they think the market will balance out in their favor over a long span of time until they retire. If you want to put this $140 billion into perspective, consider the 17.5 trillion in retirement assetts.
Retirement Assets Total $17.5 Trillion in Fourth Quarter 2010Washington, DC, April 13, 2011 - Total U.S. retirement assets were $17.5 trillion as of December 31, 2010, up 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 and up 9.1 percent for the year. Retirement savings accounted for 37 percent of all household financial assets in the United States at year-end 2010.
Typical, predictable clap trap...that does not take into account that all historical precedents are useless at this time, and all correlations soon to follow.
And also, it ignores key factors like unemployment and falling income. Average Joe won't be buying the top of anything...except maybe peak pricing in consumables. He's broke. This is just a typical, lazy, dumb ass response.
Sorry...it is what it is.
Additionally...what do you think Joe is going to buy the top of? And what do his "retirement assets" consist of? Is it gold? Is it RIETs? Anyone that bought Riets in 2009 would obviously see his retirement assets "up"...without adding anything to them...or buying at the top.
401k and IRA holds roughly 8 trillion. This 140 billion is a very small percentage and seems to be represented in this thread as a major withdrawl from markets when its not. Unemployment is improving. Incomes are stable. Consumers are spending and not as broke as what has been reported. And no, not all historical precedents are useless, as fear is one precedent that will continue to weigh upon investor sentiment and impact investor behaviour, as it is doing today.
Retail will buy back in because otherwise they will earn nothing. It is worth the risk to chase return. Why would you leave your money in a money market paying .025% when you can buy PFE, BMY. MO, MCD...or any number of dividend paying stocks paying 10x that much? I'm not saying people will go "all-in" but I do think they will diversify and invest some money into the markets as part of a healthy portfolio. The doomsdayers digging a deep hole to hide their money will be disappointed.
One thing Yahoo has over ZH...the ignore feature. After that diatribe, you have outed yourself as either a banker...or a tool of an "investor." You began by claiming that Joe was going to "buy at the top." You end with "diversified portfolio."
Well, if you are the latter, I hope you got a good 20 years to realize the benefits of "diversification"...as I think that is what you are going to need. And between now and 2032, you will almost certainly sell at the bottom...right?
And if you are the prior...just fuck off. We've heard the banker clap trap. It is everywhere...and does not need to be here, you fucking tool.
Report to Yahoo where I can ignore you, and the average poster is a smart as a Chinese slave sitting in a boiler room working for sticky rice balls.
Some things in life you can only learn with age and experience.
Don't get frustrated friend, we'll get through this, just like we did the last time.
And no, I'm not a "banker."
And other things can only be learned by starving to death and hoping your boss thinks you got enough replies...to give you one sticky rice ball.
More accurately, the greatest teacher is failure...which I expect you are about to learn if you stick with your approach of having a "diversified portfolio."
Tool.
More accurately, the greatest teacher is failure.
Clearly you earned an A+. You went to the wrong skool? Mid 20's, live at home, go to a JC, frustrated about current economic conditions and employment prospects.... But hey, it must be real cool blurting explicitives and acting disrespectful to strangers in the chat room, even if to escape reality for a few minutes.
Not. Even. Close.
I am giving you the level of respect you deserve, based on your inane commentary. You are the one who has yet to figure out that people who read ZH don't need patently stupid, status quo banker style advice. You are the fellow who cannot keep his argument straight across two paragraphs.
There is a really smart crop of guys here on ZH who post in the comments section...and then there's also a bunch of guys exactly like you, who think they are clever, but do not know the first thing about it, starting with even the simple task of understanding the audience to which you post. That would be step one, BTW.
Keep flailing away if you like, but I promise you that, if you continue, you will be outed for the fool that you almost certainly are.
I'm not here to make an argument. I don't post very often, and I'm not wanting to slow this discussion down any further just so you can follow along.
The point is; theres about 8 trillion in 401K/IRA's. A $140 billion redemption is 1.5-2% annually. Considering all the negative press about market crashes, that is not too terribly bad. Yet, you want to foster this as some sort of massive withdrawl from the average market investor- whcih is incorrect. If you have something of substance to add, other than mindless gibberish, then please feel free. Otherwise, move along and consider this discussion closed.
What mindless jibberish? Seriously, to what are you referring?
Furthermore, when in Fight Club, and when someone is hitting you repeatedly in the face, you do not say, "I don't want to fight." That is the point, Tool.
You have no idea where you are, and you have almost nil to offer...other than to calculate this month's equity redemption as a percentage all retirement assets. What about last month? What about the last six months? What about the last two years? What does the redemption trend tell you? You don't even have a grasp of the simple facts, and it is clear that you not only post very little, but you also read very little of ZH.
So take your beating like a man...and learn through your failure, rhetorically and otherwise. You are a lightweight, and you probably should remove yourself from Fight Club all together.
+ 100
You are an obvious twit
Desperately spewing out shit
I'd call you a Shill
But your lacking of skill
Makes you a moron...now git
TLK
You are incredible.
He's not your friend J. He's either a troll or a physcopath that enjoys demeaning others. Notice how he so smoothly threatens you several posts down. Part of being prepared for when the SHTF is being able to recognize people that are a danger to your and yours, don't banter with them, look the freaks in the eye, be cocked and loaded and ready to pull because people like that are not normal.
Thanks Tortuga. I don't always agree with him and he's a little rough in the ring, but I can appreciate that he keeps things lively and stimulates some good market/worldly analysis. That's much better than the other financial sites that dribble the same bullish rubbish with everyone always agreeing that the bull market is forever here to stay. ZH helps keep me balanced and hedged for that inevitable 100 point SPX drop in February.
Fuck you. No, never mind, ignore it.
Be easy on Cdad. He is one of the average posters he mentioned.
J 457 - The one way to be certain you are wrong is to start with the assumption that things will always be as the were.
I agree with that statement. However, the psychology of the markets investors will always have an impact. That will never change.
Schizophrenics on Hopium running computers are never a good thing.
Reality sucks, but it hurts even more.
Sociopaths on Hopium running computers are never a good thing.
Reality sucks, but it hurts even more.
Damn sticky 'puter.
some of the psych-0-logue of "the markets":
hft bots, have no psychology. and they are the current majority
You're almost right. The majority of working stiffs that have 401K's do not have a financial manager. They are given a booklet when they start at the job, with a web site and that's the sum total of their financial advise. I've spoken to 9 co-workers prior to my retirement that have 401k's and the most these accounts were looked at was 2 times a year by one of them, the rest said they never looked at it. They all lost alot of money in the downturn and still did not make any adjustments. I don't think they are sheeple, just untrained and unsuspecting that their "management" would do something that stupid and harmful to them. Sad.
I attended a meeting a few months back that included a rep from Mass Mutual discussing 401k. It was shocking how many in the room are absolutely clueless about their 401ks and investment choices. The young man from Mass Mutual, probabably 25 at most, gave a good and almost convincing reason to invest monthly in 401k- the company match, the 20-30 year time horizon, the average annual return, etc... And what cemented my opinion of the average investor in 401k was when the audience just sat by blindly accepting all that was told, and gloated about how they max out their 401k every year. Knowing about the last "lost decade" with no flat or negative returns, I didn't want to be a kill-joy and ruin the fun, but it certainly demonstrated to me how disconncted the average person is from their 401k plan and not realizing that the plan manager will probably "earn" as much in management fees over the life of the plan as the recepiant will. Yea, untrained and unsuspecting.
First you disparage the folks withdrawing a miniscule $140Billion from an $8Trillion 401k pool, then you disparage the folks dumb enough to participate in a 401K -- you can't have it both ways.
It sure is a fine line, isn't it? I don't disparage the withdrawls, but the 140 billion is minimal. I wanted to point out people need to be more engaged with their investments- especially 401k.
The 3 trillion low hanging fruit in 401k's is next for the taking
401(k), you can check in but you can't check out.
The biggest financial scam in history...and diabolical and brilliant from the criminals.
"You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMFqh_tiHoQ
The Plunge Protection Team might need a new plunger; the market is one phukked up shit ridden toilet bowl. Watch out for the big flush.
The market could give a shit about retail investors now. It's simply about covertly capitalizing the banks. If retail wants to help out, fine with them. Otherwise, they'll just print it and push the equities up.
This must mean BTFD !!!!
And not just the banks, its the pension funds that need this market to increase. They must have 8-10% a year to pay for the boomers retirement. Yes, eventually this will all end very badly, but it won't be anyime soon. Case in point Japan. America could double their debt to 30 trillion over the next 10 years and still be lower debt to GDP than some other countries. I think we need debt amnesty day, but you can't have mine, says the boomer.
So clever and concise and idiotic all at the same time......reminds me of Krugman.
That's right, blame an entire generation for the present debacle. If I were a betting man, and I am, I'd bet that the number of paid off whores that are responsible for this mess are fewer than the 56 men that signed the US Declaration of Independence. That being said, I accuse them, the signers, of risking their lifes, their liberty and their fortunes for the betterment of mankind. Best damn " can't have mine" there ever has been. There.
Retail brokers will not deliver certificates anymore. No wonder retail is leaving after Bernie Madoff, MFGlobal and the 2008 grand theft.
Madoff: $65 Billion
The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers remains the largest bankruptcy filing in US history with Lehman holding over $600 billion in assets.
(Missing Funds) MF Global: customer accounts with $5.45 billion were frozen the same day and the parent company, MF Global Inc., filed the eighth-largest U.S. bankruptcy.
It just keeps getting bigger and bigger. If these things keep happening...then in a few years there will be no more to bankrupt.
Cascade collapse just around the corner.
Read on the ticker today that the trustee for the MFGlobalfuckin has decided that any owed bonus money for MFfuckers is unsecured debt. "OH the humanity". I never could figure out what that announcer meant by that sentence when he was watching those folks jump out of that burning balloon. Any of you sad MF traders reading this: You get it. You get the hint? Save us the cost of a trial, please.
Jeez, do you blame them, all that xtra work, and for what? That would seriously cut into their online porno viewing time after they turn on the robo. And while we're on the subject, If they have robo's, why do they need traders. Seems like all they would need is some algo guys and a maintenance engineer to turn off the lights at nite.
This is starting to seem familiar to me, although I was in school when the first cycle was going through.
1967 - GBP£ devalued (which I understand is the conventional eventual outcome of printing too much of your own currency)
1970's - UK inflation >20%
1980's - UK base interest rates 12-14%
1992 - first inflation target met
Basically inflation and interest rates running wild for 20 years.
Tyler, this is my favorite post of yours to follow. I love to see more and more evidence that Average Joe is kickin' ass and sellin' strength...and ignorinig these moron bankers that prattle all day long on the BlowHorn [CNBC] about their stupid made up catalysts, and their dumb ass story stocks, and their tired slogans about "cash on the sidelines" and "global growth" and "decoupling" and all the uttter bullshit these tools have been saying...throughout this entire economic disaster.
Keep sellin' Joe!
Its all in the timing.
When Europe collapses then all the money will come to Wall Street.
The markets will go up for a while...and then exit.
Then buy Gold and Silver.
Not sure...but it might just work.
Bingo. Just as we watched yesterday into the EU close. Many think the US markets will implode if Greece or one of the EU countries defaults or leaves EZ. It may just have the opposite effect and push a flood of new investment into the "safe" US markets.
I am sure there are many that think about it that way..just timing the collapse. The timing and flows are everything in this game...and you have to have some sort of global/24/7 exit strategy in-place to survive this deus ex machina. Precious metals are another type of escape hatch out of the crazy house called Wall Street.
Really? "The flows" are everything? Did you even read this story about "outflows"? The flows are out week after week...and the market is up?
So how do you account for this?
either the flows from the funds are buying individual stocks, nah, us sheeple are too smart for that OR the ppt is borrowing japanese yen for 0, then, cds it to an hft which then takes a minus @ 7 trades a nano second, many of which are a signal to an inside robo @ another HFT to take the plus side which then makes the big board green and the hft's take it all to the cleaners in the last 8 nano seconds of the trading day and tah dah, bonus made, who's buyin'.
The covering of short positions would account for this.
I am not saying that this is what is happening, but it would explain it.
The fund flows out of the market...could be explained as short covering? Oh, please do explain your thoughts here.
Ummmmm....okay. It may...or it may not....or it may have no effect anywhere...or maybe unicorns will fly out of your ass at the first sign of European default.
Who could know...since it is no longer a market?
It's really anyone's best guess what impact EU will have. But if you lived in EU, and you had money, and you were worried about your bank folding, what would you do? I read today about the Iranians supposedly rushing to the banks to convert their funds into USD. Since there is little yield in US bonds, equities seems like a better choice if someone was chasing return.
But in all seriousness, I don't believe in unicorns. This is still a market, its just not functioning in a healthy manner. The HFT, the back door POMO buying, and who knows what else makes it all the more risky.
Ummm...no...not really. What will happen if Euro debt defaults is quite predictable. The market will sell off in a panic, as it will know that a credit freeze is at hand, and interbank lending will be zero, and leverage will have to be taken down immediately...or firms will perish.
The selling will touch ALL asset classes, as firms "sell what they can" when they cannot "sell what they want."
Once the selling has done some serious damage, there will be wicked counter trend rallies, as criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers try to catch the falling knife...for a trade.
But no...it is not anyone's guess. It will be a blood bath in a bid-less market, one with almost zero participation. I suspect you actually do believe in unicorns, as well.
It's never unfolds exactly as one may think it should. Think this thru. If only Greece defaults, then would the EU not immediately place a firewall of infinite funding around PIIS? So the sell-off you envision may not be as severe and actually viewed by some as an opportunity to buy into massive EU and soon FED backed liquidity.
Different story if you have multiple countries default all within days or weeks of one another.
So YES it is anyones guess. And you're mistaken if you think you can frontrun this.
The circle jerk around here is worse than the CNBC orgy. All this chart has shown is that fund outflows peak at the bottom and fund inflows coincide with tops.
Ummm...wrong. Nothing is worse than a circle jerk over at the BlowHorn [CNBC]. Nothing. You apparently do not consume that network's programming to make this comment. You obviously have never been told to buy some stock by P. Najarian, who thinks saying "wetalkaboutit" is actually a catalyst for bullish momentum.
You have obviously never watched Cramer shout at his microphone for an hour...even though what he is shouting about is positive per his disposition to the market.
You have obviously never watched The Closing Bell which always features its bull/bull debate in the final hour of trade.
You have obviously never watched T. Schoenberger pull 180 degree sentiment swings in the span of minutes for his failed LandColt trading business.
And we fight plenty here, bub. I love brother boiler...but don't agree with him often. And I have even, from time to time, taken on the silver bulls here...which is dangerous work, I say.
Nope...you pretty much have it all wrong. And you would know that if you simply thought about your comment, "fund outflows peak at the bottom." With that comment, and on the second trading day of the year, a fellow could get the impression that you just called the bottom to the market for 2012...which would be the dumbest call I've EVER heard, all things considered.
Keep it up, chimp. Some serious contributions you are making here.
Cdad, your sarcasm is very juvenile. Lighten up a bit and your comments may be worth posting.
Transfer taxpayer money to the elite...check.
Use it to speculate and make billions... check
Accumulate massive world debt which can never, ever be paid back....check
Depose democratically elected officials and replace them with bankers. check
Overhaul or ignore financial laws and regulations...check
Systematically devalue every currency in the world...check
Create a new currency...check
Accumulate through manipulation and outright theft homes, businesses and property of helpless citizenry...check
Remove opportunity for employment and affordable housing...check
Continue accumulation of commodities, real estate and metals... check
Overrun countries, confiscate assets and eliminate all former puppet agents... check
Engineer a crash of the worlds' equity markets...
Shut down all forms of communication available to the poulation and institute ML
Until then, party on dude, party like its 1999...the last time this all happened.
sounds like a run up to the Great Kill Off
For those of you looking for a theory of everything I am working on going through the Billie Meier diaries trying to pull it all together. Best I can tell is they are going to let it collapse and then something something something.
October 2008, $45b outflows.
A lot of people around here think they can solve half an equation and get a proper answer.
That's a very strange way for investors to think. Which leads me to believe a lot of people around here are much more talkers than investors.
May the arrows guide me.
The purpose of a system is what it does.
Has the US Govt REALLY cut spending yet?
Do interest rates have more than one direction to go?
Can the Fed/ESF suspend the mathematical certainty of exponential functions?
Are corporations repatriating manufacturing jobs to the US?
Are stock prices rising without any volume to account for it?
Do any of these things seem normal to you?
Buy Au/Ag, while you still can!
I'll be pulling out the last of my 401k this year, if everyone pulled out, then we would be in control
And do what with the proceeds? Unless you plan to retire, you'll pay a penalty for early distribution, and get taxed as well. You could lose around 50% of your balance. Does your plan provider not provide anything more conservative that will not drop 50%- which is about what you could expect to lose thru tax and penalty? And company match could add more over time. Just saying...
Losing 50% off the bat and buying shit you need is better than Timmay coming in and saying he'll watch your money in exchange for "guaranteed retirement funding."
Buying a shitload of sugar, yeast and copper pipe, and tools do defend yourself, is a lot better investment than paying someone to lose your money for you. Unless you're a "preferred client," and you're not, your "investment manager" is going to dump all his losing bets on the "guaranteed clients" like retirement funds.
But, hey, good luck on your strategy.
We pulled my son's funds from his 401k because every option he had included BOA. Go figure huh. It took about a week of phone and email tag for him to set up a IRA @ Fidelity, I'm sure other brokerages do this also, with a transfer, thus no tax liability. We read, study, discuss and put the funds in companies that make something, with cash flow and no debt, some of them even pay a dividend. When the SHTF comes we don't know what will happen to the value of equities (how low they will go), but when the recovery comes there will be a need for energy, food, drink, vices, soap, toilet paper, medium of exchange of some sort, so maybe he'll still have some value for his blood, sweat and toil. The options are few, the hopes for a best case recovery are high. We watch, we prepare, the son works and we enjoy the weekends.
Guess you have NOT read about the customer accounts @ MFGlobal...
Read, then check your premises.
yep, I had to pay a huge penalty last year for pulling out my other 401k and this year will just be the "tax protester", getting ready to join Irwn Schiff.
It's not that simple of a determination though... the post-tax (rape) money is free to partake in whatever endeavors may outpace any gains (or avoid any losses) that might occur in your retirement account.
There are a myriad of present endeavors, if you're willing to invest some elbow grease, that pay returns better than inflation... few of which you can practically do in a retirement account.
The determination is a complex one, largely centering around how long you have til payout and what viable alternatives you have identified. At least for me, the concept of 30 year investments (in non-tangible things for sure) in the present political environment is... silly. But for someone who can start pulling out in 2 years, well, the decision to tuck and run might be a little more difficult.
Anyone buying into a no volume VIX gone south HFT market and expecting a major meltup has lost the plot. The VIX as it stands is basically saying that Wall Street has laid bulltraps for it's self and everybody else. US equities are about to get 'payback' sell off. Rallies on seasonal strength which is still below average. HFT will now start to panic.
Also a financial war has been declared on Iran re: US/UK trying to crunch the Iranian currency and take out oil profits. Great, lock in war within weeks.
And then there is China.
What does $140 billion really represent out of the total amount held in equity funds?
I'll bet it is about one half of 1%......no wonder the markets are little affected.
The biggest demographic population bulge in US history is retiring at the rate of 10,000/day. Think the withdrawal trend is gonna reverse itself?
gradually, then suddenly
Welcome to walmart! Do you need a purple sticker for a return? Here is your cart! I hope I am not too creepy or forward! Have a nice day!
Am so fucking short on stocks, especially Oil! That fucker went like 4% in a day, like if the war with Iran is on!
Buy Gold/Silver ... Fuck everything else (I wish gold/silver drop a bit so i can buy more)
You dont like the present savings plan set up with 401k ask Ronald Regan when he turned the Bull loose. What he should have said is a quote from Gladiator
"Unleash Hell".
Accounting control fraud was started when the assholes in the picture cutting all the red tape to reguation had their filthy way with the amercian middle class family investing virgins.
The scumbags got their wish, now they have succeeded in destroying the very goose that has been laying their golden eggs.
Wait let's ask the GOP candidates why no one showed up for their bullshit gathering of the status quo that was absent the american voter in IOWA>
Off with their heads, end don't ask don't tell, President Obama, and when you get back from vacation go ahead and claw back the quick buck bonuses of the mafia style CEO's , Lobbyists, and gubbament congressemen and senators.
Hire Professor Black and give him the funding from the bridge to no where money to reset the inbalance caused by accounting control fraud.
+1
The Accounting Entries fraud is the biggest frauds ever in both the IAS and the FASB standards. Look at Basel III implementation of LCR (Liquidity Coverage Ratio) that the stock of high liquid assets are the GOVERNMENT BONDS that has 0% Hair Cut! Are you fucking kidding me! I wont buy that paper that pays bullshit usery for free. Europe and US Banks are broke, they are leveraged up to their noses that it will choke them at a point of time. Also remember that in 2013 there will be no Mark-To-Market for bonds (and most of them will be revalued at face value (Par) , because your intention is to hold it!
Screw Basel and the big oligarchs, God is not even happy with what they are doing, and their day will come!
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