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Retail Sales Miss Ex-Autos, PPI Misses; Gold Soars On More QE Expectations
Two more data points, two more disappointments: retail sales declined in May by 0.2%, in line with expectations, and unchanged from the April revision from 0.1% to -0.2%. Worse however were retail sales ex autos which had the biggest drop in 2 years, sliding by 0.4%, on expectations of an unchanged print. And so the retrenchment of the US consumer arrives. But at least "housing has bottomed." And in further 'NEW QE is coming' news, PPI also missed for the nth month in a row, printing at -1.0% on expectations of -0.6%, with foods dropping -0.6%, but energy collapsing by a massive 4.3%. PPI ex food and energy (so the items everyone uses, but nobody ever really counts) was up 0.2%. Gold, however, appears to be ignoring the core items, and has soared by $10 since the report, as today's data screams MOAR NEW QE.
Retail sales summarized:
And expectations for the NEW QE summarized:
8 months in a row of missed lower expectations for PPI (and the biggest downside miss in 15 months) as PPI comes in at its lowest print in almost 3 years...
and meanwhile retail spending drops off a cliff...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Hmm Lets see here: QE3 will have a pop in the market for less than a week, BUT it will collapse the dollar! Decisions, decisions! What will the Bernank do?
People dont understand. There will be no QE, at least not at these levels, we need panic for more QE. If SP is hitting 1000 or lower there will be QE.
At the same time, Tyler has been calling for QE since last June, and I have been saying we aint getting it. The fools in power are not dumb, would they rather have a currency collapse and everyone gets smoked, or have a massive correction and they pick up assets on the cheap and start cycle all over agian.
Every month since last June there has been talk of QE at the next fed meeting. If you keep saying it eventually you'll be right.
We had the twist. It counts. It's still going on.
What do you call Operation Twist and currency swaps? Not calling them QE# is just semantics. The intent and goal are the same as any QE.
More importantly, the effect is the same. A shit is a shit, no matter what kind of bun it's in.
So why we need QE if we have Twist? Twist seems to be successful if you look at the major indices. QE not needed.
Uhm, I don't know what you mean by QE, but if you mean unbridled currency printing - it has been happening right under our noses. Treasury has been issuing massive amount of bills and notes at an increasing clip. The FED has been playing backstop for all issuances - loading their balance sheet with ever increasing amounts. The scary part is Treasury has been spending that money inthe economy - so, worse than TARP, this money is flowing right into the economy as patronage to the favorite pet welfare projects - corporate and private. Let's not forget the FX swap lines and God knows what other 'aid packages'.
There is QE - it is ongoing - it is back-stopped by the FED, initiated by Treasury.
+1 ! The Gov.t spending .. . Running a country into the ground is no easy task.
I don't know..will it collapse the dollar or help scaffold it? Seems to me there is massive credit contraction.
nothing new, I can hear sounds of an econmy being flushed down the toilet thanks to our great leaders in our country!
Great expectations lead to greater disappointments.
6 trillion
April was revised down from a positive number to a negative? Truly shocking.
Got Gold?
Had some but a ground hog dug it up and sold it to a dentist in mexico
Aren't you Little Green People supposed to be lucky? :-)
i'll buy gold at $600. gold bulls are just as stupid as equity bulls.
Guess we won't be meeting at the gold bullion dealer in your lifetime
Hey fella, that's MISTER stupid gold bull to you.
I'm SO stupid I put some of our trash cash into gold, the only "investment" whose value has risen each of the last 12 years!
I'm still kicking myself over that one. What was I thinking?
Wait man, wait.
Gold Soars On More QE Expectations
Again???
Where do they keep getting this money even without the QEs?
Well, it all starts will a tiny little seed that grows into a giant magestic tree that we chop down and apply ink...pretty easy really
Right?!
How is Gold soaring on expectation of QE any different than the S&P soaring on expectation of QE?
I thought gold and stocks were in lock step? Is gold separating from lulu and chipotle?
Give it a day or two...
Foodstamps only buy so much.
We need an amendment so WIC checks can buy iPads. Call your congressmen!
How does everyone like the hope and change?
Anybody out there who knows what is going on and still is not holding precious metals will know who to blame when left with NOTHING.
spx at 1320. no chance in hell of qe7 next week. the bulls fucked this one up. now they must wait until aug 1 or let spx crash to 1000 before then for ben to hold an emergency meeting.
I understand what Tyler is saying here, but is gold correct? If it really rocketed out of the downtrend it has been in then I would give it more credence. No real move in the USD or oil. Maybe he does but maybe he doesn't. I'm leaning towards him needing more of a crisis unless you call the Spider at 1308 a crisis.
no QE, may be some form of twist or other impotent maneuvre. Things are weak but ok...
Bernanke and we know QE doesn't help economy, only reason for QE is to prop up markets, S&P. But S&P is holding up ok, expecting QE. So what Bernanke is just gonna unleash QE to protect 7% fall in S&P from its peak. I doubt it.
If he was gonna do it he would have hinted it, few times already. Transparency and all of new Fed.
Market have to fall for QE to make any sence, even Fed knows that.
Brace people, brace!
Bernanke is shrewd, no QE until after election. Lower oil price is kind of QE.
broken record economy
Getting bad, saw where Bank of America is sending it's employees out on weekends to snap up bobbles and thingamajigs at yard sales to use as collateral using Spiderman Towls in trade, overheard one employee saying "this is the euro model of high finance so shut up and grab that stack of National Geographics"
I just do not see them reving up the electronic printing presses anytime soon. We all know what is happening but we are that small minority that pays attention, does research and ignores MSM. Most sheeples look at the DOW over 12,000, Spoos 1,300 and would not understand more easing. So on that score, I think we will be disappointed next week when the inmates meet in the expensive lunch room that we all pay for.'
The caveat for the above....if Europe continues to implode and all signs lead to that continuing, then The Bernank has some cover, if they can all get together, Europe, US, Japan, and ease together, then it would be hard for our "brilliant" politicians to yell "QE for political reasons only". It appears to be a fine line for the Feds. The vote in Greece alone will not move the Fed in either direction. It has to be Europe leading with us following. Of course we all know it may look like we are following, but in fact we will be at the front of the pack, moving all the pieces under cover of the ECB and Ms. Merkel. But if they continue at the same pace as in the past, and why not, we will not see any coordinated action till July. And that, will upset equities. Does not change any of my holdings, but if you own AMZN PCLN CMG, FB or any of the other "PE" absurdities, well, the warnings are every where.
we dont need any stinking qe with all the great numbers comming out, full steam ahead!
$10 in gold is "soaring"?
Agree, just a nice easy move higher. For me gold up $100 is "soaring". I like the track that we are on. No rush.
lets see they bought emerging markets...then US treasuries ...then German Bunds..then the Swiss bonds......now they are seeing the problem with those so called safe havens....and gold is finally coming clean...GOLD is the ONLY safe haven...real gold....the Chinese and Russian know it...so do many others...politicians can talk and Central bankers can print...but neither one can make GOLD....and they hate that....they can make it illegal...but that just makes the value go up even more...I am at the point if you are playing with day to day trades and headlines.....and the Alfred hitchcock Black Swan movie hits you ...you deserve your losses...for then its to late to "buy" GOLD
Think about it, only a couple of ex communist economies with a few satelites have "figured out" that gold is the answer? All the bankers from the first world are complete numbnuts?
Perhaps the final, ultimate asset is DEBT and whether you can coerce a population to be responsible for it. Need a huge military machine, maybe a global, concentrated machine filled with many nationalities and no reservations about killing foreign nationals? Russia has some experience with that. Toss in compliant politicians and voila.
You can't seize credit, but you can seize assets. National wealth registers, transferred into the hands of bankers via the police state.
Isn't every bad number bullish these days?
If not, better fire up another QE rumor.
I love gold as much as the next idiot, but is a $10 move really soaring? Like, maybe if gold was $50.
this is ZEROHEDGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A $0.01 move in Gold is considered "soaring". Watch the negatives accumulate on this comment as proof.
LOL. Yes, it seems as if ZH is taking to the Peter Schiff school of "A toaster oven popped up: BUY GOLD!!!!111".
But this only means more deflation to come. And there go your precious profit margins, Corporations. Which only means they'll whine to the Fed, who will print their fiat heroin fix they so desperately need.
That worked exactly as I thought it would.....NOT.
Autos, the new "Largest single purchase you will ever make" which once referred to your Home.
But since you need real verifiable income, real "good credit" and real cash houses are out of reach. Autos on the other hand still benifit from "If you can fog a mirror your approved" and retrieval of collateral via Lizard Lick repo man is much easier than robo signing Mrs Green.
Repo-ing an auto is fun and exciting. Repo-ing a house is cruel and distasteful. Although I would be shocked to see a series on HGTV along the lines of Foreclose and Flip for Fun.
"If you can fog a mirror your approved"
Government-owned ALLY/GMAC has been buying 480-score credit criminals on new cars since AT LEAST November, to boost Obam's economic output numbers.
I've been screaming it to the high-heavens.
Nice to see someone is finally listening.
I don't know where you live but I can tell you this, here in the mid Atlantic I have not seen or heard of any mortgages available to borrowers with fico below 620.
FACT
Holy shit, you're not kidding! Yesterday I went into town, WOW! Shiny new cars everywhere! If you have a pulse, your'e APPROVED! APPROVED! APPROVED!
QE is now a coordinated global action. The hotspot remains Europe, so any QE will be sent to their shores, probably via the dollar swap. Hide it on the balance sheet and save the domestic QE for the election, providing the Elites want Obama back.
The game gets more intricate as they extend the program. They do seem to be getting countries to buy the need for more fascism and control. Germany may conquer Europe yet, buying on the cheap with promises of bailouts based on tax increases and confiscation of assets.
The global bankers are injecting volatility to strip wealth and people keep playing, regardless of trading desks selling them out. Must be nice to own a 401k, trapped in a nether world of assurances and losses.
Tyler is part of the game folks. The most entertaining perhaps, but you don't get volatility without rope a doping in the players. Just as the gold movers play. All assets are in play and all are abused with leverage.
The ones with the assets win in the end.
First gold purchase today. Need assistance.
Am concerned about record of my purchase. Plan to buy fractional ounce (i.e. coin/bar) for initial purchase. Online is cheapest, but assume records can be "requested" later that show my purchase. So, forget my paranoia and save online or . . . ?
Thanks in advance for meaningful advice.
You do have a boat? Does this boat occasionally get swamped? Have you unfortunately been transferring you gold at the same time? Oh no!
Your only play for total anonymity is to buy through a local coin shop for cash on the barrel.
You may pay little more than online dealers charge for the same item.
But if your goal is to avoid having the transaction recorded somewhere along the line, you must view the delta at the LCS as a cost of obtaining that level of privacy.
Some of the best things in Life are NOT free :-)
Good luck.
I wouldn't worry too much about being on records. Boating accidents happen... I personally lost my gold while snorkeling, silly me...
Anyway, when things go wrong with economy, they will have more important things to do than knocking to people's doors confiscating gold and silver.
Purchasing gold now is not illegal, and I guess the whole purpose of buying gold is to preserve some wealth for future times, times when it will be again OK to own gold, etc. Just dig a hole, and wait several years :)
Don't forget to buy silver as well :) Unfortauntely it sinks in water almost as quickly as gold.
Just as quickly, I can tell ya' from firsthand experience.
Thanks again for the feedback.
At least mortgage purchase applications and refis rose today. Retail sales down, gold up. Bernunk will be tempted to press the PRINT button. See charts.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/13/mba-purchase-and-refi-applications-surge-retail-sales-ex-auto-slump/
Gold has soared by 10$ ?!?!
What is this?
TMZ?
The Economic Recovery surges forward.
Gold is not soaring on more QE printed money, Gold is soaring because it is the only thing left that is safe!
Energy prices dropped? Gasoline is now more expensive than it was when oil traded over $100 a barrel and I'm still paying $5.28 per mcf for natural gas.
I don't know what food items they were checking. Last month a bag of Doritos went from $3.25 to $4.85. You used to see sales 2 for $5, now it's 2 for $7. Coke has cool new 14 oz bottles for the same price as the old 18 oz.
They also added awesome 8 oz cereal boxes for $3.89. Pretty soon you'll be paying $5 for a carboard box with air inside.
So PPI is bullshit as usual.
GreeK elections will be a big factor in the QE decision
Yes, because Dow will go below 10.000.
ADR... Don't worry... Your doritos and coke will be much cheaper in silver in the near future.WAY cheaper once the massive silver manipulation ends (blows up).
I call bullshit on the PPI, too. Everything is up; gas(still $4 here), food(shopping at liquidators and Grocery Outlet), booze($15+ for a 12 pack of domestic?), the power bill (30% this year alone), insurance ( up 10% on homeowners for 3rd year in a row, 20% on auto for second, no changes). It may not be hyperinflation, but it's definitely inflation at a high rate of speed.
Those are all retail items. PPI is about prices producers have to pay for inputs: raw materials, components etc...
(Which isn't to say retail prices aren't going up faster than official figures show...)
Collecting ZH themes, was the consumer re-retrenchment concealed by seasonal mal-adjustment of the auto series? (By porn-chugging sociopaths? :)
@Overfed- Unless you have a special situation ie. Your teenaged driver had a DUI or you Live on a Barrier Island 18 inches above sea level,
Shop around for the Insurances: Home Auto Umbrella. I'm paying less this year than 2008. I switch with any increase.
One has to admire the GENIUS of those who created the current FIAT system and have benefitted handsomely from its century reign.
To be perfectly honest, if I had been smart enough to obtain a MONOPOLY from the US congress and granted the to issue the nations money supply, I'm not sure I would have done anything differently. I, too, would have exploited the system I built and controlled for my benefit, and the benefit of my family and those I care about.
I have learned from experience that there are always ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS, and each man is free to choose his path. I have also learned that most will take the path of LEAST RESISTANCE. Just like the flow of electrons.
Generally speaking then, we have the same operational intelligence as a PARTICLE CHARGE. And sometimes I think that overestimates things.
Most on ZH have indeed benefitted from the same BOGUS SYSTEM of exploitation, yet bitch and moan about others doing the same. While I find Banzai7 to be amusing in his posts, I see that he always hits the wrong targets. Those in the public light, whether politicians or CEO's, are just the distraction. They are also attempting, in their way, to game the very same system. A company CEO lays off thousands, the stock jumps, and traders make a profit. Didn't that "profit" come, in part, from the salaries of those same displaced workers? Wasn't the CEO simply the hired hatchet-man, doing the traders bidding, in order to keep his own job? Do traders favor big moves in the market pricing over long term investment and building...the only true source of wealth.
I think Banzai needs to focus less on the obvious, incorrect targets and simply do his great illustrations with a space to "INSERT YOUR PHOTO HERE"
Gold has "soared" $10. [0.6%]?
Rally Warning Continues...
SPX bullish daily chart & USDX bearish daily chart strengthen.
Significant equity / EURUSD upside & USDX retracement ahead.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis