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Reuters Reports That Hedge Funds Have Found Greek Default Trigger Loophole

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the general market mood is one of pre-default euphoria reminiscent of that in the pre-Lehman weekend, clouds may be brewing. As Reuters reports, "Some hedge funds have found a legal loophole they believe will force Greece to repay some of its debt in full, three sources close to the matter said on Thursday, in a move that would intensify the standoff between the country and its debtors." The loophole? A tiny €412.5 million bond issued by Hellenic Railways with a clause that "allows bondholders to argue that Greece is in default if it is trying to restructure or change the terms of its debt, the sources said. The creditors could already argue that Athens has defaulted, and if they buy up a quarter of that bond -- or enough of it not to be forced into the debt swap -- they can also then demand immediate repayment, a process known as acceleration." More: "The funds are now trying to buy up enough of the bond -- issued by state-owned Hellenic Railways and guaranteed by the government -- to force Greece to repay them in full, to the tune of some 400 million euros. If Greece refuses to do so, this may trigger similar provisions on other Greek railway bonds, potentially landing Athens with a bill of about 3 billion euros, with investors demanding immediate repayment, the sources said." Things could move very fast since the PSI results are due in 7 hours: "Sources close to Greece's negotiation fear the funds could already start the acceleration process by Friday, or next week, if they find they have a big enough majority."

And while the amount is nominal, once legislation has commenced that does in fact find Greece in default it could well derail the PSI process even retroactively as this outcome could be seen as a Matrial Adverse Change in the conditions for the PSI, as a par payout will certainly infuriate others who are not only getting crammed down on the current bonds, but have a 85% discount to look forward to on the "fresh start" bonds as well.

And finally, this is nothing new - the very same outcome will happen when Greece tries the UK-law bond exchange offer in a few weeks, which it will fail. Where Greece will get the up to €30 billion in cash to fund par payouts on that, and other foreign law bonds, is unclear - Greece has already said there will be no cash for holdouts under any CUSIP. And Europe will certainly not pay for the incremental cost of providing some evil, evil, hold out hedge funds with a par return, merely because they were not lazy and read the bond indenture cover to cover.

Naturally, one has to downplay this event:

It is unlikely the hedge funds could derail the overall debt swap, which will shave more than 100 billion euros off Greece's debt pile, a crucial precondition for receiving more international aid and staying in the euro.

 

The exchange has already been accepted by more than 75 percent of investors, a senior official told Reuters ahead of Thursday's 2000 GMT deadline.

 

The hedge funds have been targeting some of Greece's more investor-friendly foreign law bonds -- like the railway bond -- hoping to stop Athens from activating so-called Collective Action Clauses (CACs), used to impose losses on all holders.

 

This could then allow them to squeeze a bigger payout, potentially through lengthy court challenges, while creditors that do sign up to the bond swap face losses of 74 percent on their investments.

It doesn't stop with this particular bond:

Although these clauses only concern this one bond, the action by hedge funds could trigger clauses contained in other Greek railway bonds.

 

And because of the provisions in other bonds governed by English law, this could eventually affect more deals, potentially affecting up to 8-9 billion euros worth of debt, one of the sources said.

Maybe one should not count out the hedge funds just yet. As a reminder, those who do engage in international sovereign debt litigation stand to generate massive return if successful. Which at the end of the day is all that matters to the LPs.

 

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Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:13 | 2237639 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Defaultistan

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:25 | 2237688 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

I don't think this is significant enough. The following is a real stretch.

"And while the amount is nominal, once legislation has commenced that does in fact find Greece in default it could well derail the PSI process even retroactively as this outcome could be seen as a Material Adverse Change in the conditions for the PSI, as a par payout will certainly infuriate others who are not only getting crammed down on the current bonds, but have a 85% discount to look forward to on the "fresh start" bonds as well"

"Nominal" hit the nail on the head. Other qualifiers are "could well" and "could be seen" and "will certainly infuriate others" [don't think so].

So many qualifiers, so little text. This makes me think the banks are actually going to pull this off.

Don't the Greek people know what's happening to them? Bank Banged!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:33 | 2237716 PhilB
PhilB's picture

I agree....we have already seen Tyler flashes us with headlines of how that low probability event of a disorderly default was some how, in his mind, a much more likely scenario.

Now we have to suffer this...and he complains about this very minor issue as "being played down". Looks to me someone has eaten some sour grapes on this swap and is trying to "play up" anything.

 

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:36 | 2237728 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Maybe if we all just start chanting, "Iceland, Iceland, Iceland, Iceland,....."

The banks are going to fuck over the Greeks.

How can they not see this?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:39 | 2237741 PhilB
PhilB's picture

"ICEland! ICEland! ICE...!

 

Umm..wait a minmute, ISDA Decision Committee member knocking at my door

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:43 | 2237953 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Greece is just going to fucking DEFAULT on these loans as well!

what the fuck kinda idiots are these hedgefunds?!?!  It's like buying senior claims on a house when the thing is already ablaze and the arsonist is spraying it with more gasoline

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:54 | 2237990 Eisenhorn
Eisenhorn's picture

Nothing like remodeling the kitchen while the house burns down.

 

Bullish....

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:46 | 2238523 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Big returns from distressed debt eh, that only works for as long as the counterparties to the CDS are being bailed out with new money. When that stops you lose ALL your capital AND your 50% annualised...

Good luck with that.  Let's just hope the system doesn't fall apart while you're in litigation eh, because then you lose your legal costs as well.

Buy gold...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:28 | 2237895 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

How can they not see this?

They DO see this.  Was in Greece last summer, and to a person each Greek citizen I talked with knew and fully understood they were being screwed by the big European and US banks.  It's the Greek politicians who prostrating themselves and the Greek people for the banksters benefit.  Perhaps even worse, the banksters actually know too that this will not work.  The banksters must be tried for fraud and criminal conspiracy, starting w/Gold Man-Sachs, one key enablers of the fraud.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:44 | 2237959 trav7777
trav7777's picture

the same slimy greek citizens who sit their lazy, greasy asses in cafes pretending to work?  Fuck them.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:09 | 2238031 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

the same slimy bankers who kept lending them billions? fuck them

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:07 | 2238241 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yes, fuck them too

how about both deadbeat borrower and deadbeat lender lose?

I am a huge fan for having criminal bankers in prison or hanged and for deadbeat "homeowners" to be finding somewhere to rent and true price discovery letting the market clear.

instead of lending/gifting the banks trillions, the Fed should have taken them over and fired everyone, incarcerated their management, and told the public the truth- "everything you pay for is now going up by 50% in price because of this."

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:00 | 2238372 metastar
metastar's picture

I agree that banks should pay dearly, especially the large ones. They should be out of business and their top management incarcerated (or worse).

But do you honestly believe that the scumbag FED will hold its scumbag owners accountable? Do you honestly believe the bought-out scumbag government will enforce the law upon its owners, the FED?

At this point, only the people can enforce justice upon the criminal, corrupt, and illegitimate system. But, first their conditioning must be broken.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:57 | 2238446 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'At this point, only the people can enforce justice upon the criminal, corrupt, and illegitimate system. But, first their conditioning must be broken.' - Sounds like mob rule. If you want to know where this ends, go read up on the run up to the French Revolution. No more certain a way of destroying what remains of investment capital and throwing everyone else out of work...

The end becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as the have-not , can-not deadbeats begin to dictate to the rest of society how they should live.

Good luck with that one, I'll be on my boat...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:55 | 2238543 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Harumph!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:14 | 2238400 silver4me
silver4me's picture

You can't up arrow the comment by "Withdrawn Sanction"

I think you would have alot of up arrows, I wanted to add one.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:17 | 2238271 BandGap
BandGap's picture

You watch a more "educated" American public.....and ask that question? Tsk, tsk.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:38 | 2237739 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

I'm throwing the red flag on this one:  Please cite the article in which Tyler said a disorderly default was a "much more likely scenario"

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:48 | 2237773 PhilB
PhilB's picture

Are you joking? You have NO credibility.

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/more-psi-troubles-greek-swiss-franc-bondho...

 

Go back to the hole you trolled out of. Everyone here knows Tyler's pessimism is eternal.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:10 | 2237845 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

You are an idiot.  Take a good look at that chart again and look at the probability for a "disorderly default"

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:26 | 2237889 PhilB
PhilB's picture

Idiots are ones who cannot read...you clearly lack the ability to comprehend the english language. The chart is from BNP, Its BNP's probablities. Moron. Go back to your bomb shelter, freak.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:31 | 2237906 bingo was his name
bingo was his name's picture

This thing starting to get the feel of a Scooby Doo episode - We would have gotten away with if it wasn't for you pesky kids

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:41 | 2237943 PhilB
PhilB's picture

I think you're onto something there Shaggy. We all could learn a little bit from Velma and stick to the facts and stand up against presumed authority figures that try to dupe us.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:30 | 2238415 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

And we can hang with the Globetrotters, too!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:58 | 2238550 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

What's wrong with bomb shelters?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:43 | 2237758 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

... a Pyrrhic victory. Check the deficit.

Greece burns 87 million euros per day.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:52 | 2237783 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Oy! How do they do that? Can you point me to a link? I know some Greeks, and they are very depressed about the whole thing.

On the other hand, they unanimously point out that this is the VERY BEST TIME to invest in Greece, as it is at its nadir. When else should one invest? Buy low, sell high. Right?

I think they might be on to something. Or maybe, they are just on something.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:36 | 2237930 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

Just think MF Global. They do what they want and everyone just drags their feet. Nothing gets done.

aaaannnn it's gone!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:42 | 2237951 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

On the other hand, they unanimously point out that this is the VERY BEST TIME to invest in Greece, as it is at its nadir.

INVEST in GREECE ????????

HaHaHaHa HeHeHe HaHaHaHa HeHeHe ............ HaHaHaHa HeHeHe HaHaHaHa HeHeHe HarHarHarHar !!!!!!!!!!!

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:07 | 2238166 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Hey PhilB,

The one who looks like has eaten some sour grapes on this swap is you.

I suggest you wait for the actual official PSI results (at 1:00 am), before you whine here like a brainless bitter imbecile.

And since when an anonymous lowlife Greek bankster (the one who called multiple news agencies to tell them anonymously about the PSI participation rate before the actual count) is more reliable than Tyler?!

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:19 | 2238276 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

PhilB is right. The sentiment here was that this would play out in a disorderly fashion. It did not/has not. Maybe that will change. But so far it seems like the markets have taken this in stride. I find the hardest part is taking the information posted on here and seeing the truth in it and not necessarily acting on it. Because to act on it is to fight against a very stromg tide.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:36 | 2238321 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Re: "The sentiment here was that this would play out in a disorderly fashion."

This is not true.

The consensus here has always been that Greeks will be forced to use CACs and it will trigger CDS (not a market friendly event).

The jury is still out on this one.

And as far as the market reaction, it can be irrational and manipulated.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 06:23 | 2238986 ambrosiac
ambrosiac's picture

They are hoping it's "Runaway Train"

But it might just be "The Little Engine That Couldn't"

Meanwhile, Casey trader Jones is ridin' that train/ high on cocaine

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:40 | 2237748 surf0766
surf0766's picture

They are have trouble getting meds into the country. Seriously. People are leaving their kids for others to take care of because they can't financially.

They now get more cuts.  There will not be anyone left in the country to pay anything back. Why stay?  What was the cause of the masses leaving Italy in the 1900 -1910 time frame? Food,,, the inability to buy food. What is the unemployment rate? Paper cannot solve centuries of problems... Just my thoughts..

 

Cheers !

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:09 | 2237823 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Agreed.  I feel like we're watching vultures picking at a roadkill carcass. 

Where's the humanity?  Seriously ... Greeks are abandoning their children because they can't feed them, but the European leaders are jumping through hoops to make sure that the banks survive ...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:08 | 2238247 trav7777
trav7777's picture

When you can no longer feed your kids, you are LONG PAST the time you should be realizing that you spend way too much time lounging in cafes pretending to work.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:12 | 2238041 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

how have the greeks been able to feed themselves the last 3000 years? is there some sort of fishkill or crop failure there?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:24 | 2237880 just a dude
just a dude's picture

Don't you mean, gang-banked?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:25 | 2237882 just a dude
just a dude's picture

deleted.  double post

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:50 | 2238350 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Sorry...I can't buy the theory that the whole thing will fall apart on $400 million. It's all Bullshit!  The can continues to be kicked down the ever winding road.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:16 | 2237650 kito
kito's picture

this is too much already...... tyler, please post a story about saving a stranded kitty from a tree branch..................

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:41 | 2237751 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

WHAT IS WITH YOU WAR MONGERS>>> Leave the fucking Cat alone!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:47 | 2237762 SgtSchultz
SgtSchultz's picture
Kitten saved from tree

 

A kitten trapped for three days high in a tree in the Cooroy Cemetery is back home with its family after being rescued by a council arborist.

A nearby resident phoned the Sunshine Coast Council late last week after hearing the five-month-old kitten crying.

Local laws officer Mark Revere went to the scene and found the kitten firmly wedged high up in a pine tree.

http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2008/10/02/arborist-rescues-kitten-stuck-tree/

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:54 | 2237792 HD
HD's picture

YEA! They saved the kitty!

Although, I think the better title would have been:

     "Pussy saved by men in uniform"

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:39 | 2237937 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

A typo would it make even more attractive:

"Pussy shaved by men in uniform"

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:16 | 2237857 noses
noses's picture

How many CDSs (Cat De-tree Swaps) were triggered in the process?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:12 | 2238043 mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

This kitty story is more apres pos of what the Banksters are doing to Greece:

http://www.cbsatlanta.com/story/17105390/fulton-county-da-will-not-pursue-animal-cruelty-case

 

"Walker said he saw Wearing use a branch to knock a cat out of a tree in his backyard. Then he said Wearing allowed his two pit bulls to maul the cat to death.  According to Walker, Wearing even bragged about the incident on his Facebook page." 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:23 | 2238283 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Have a good friend who is a retired first-responder (and who is an animal lover volunteering for the local Humane society).  He says they hate getting those kitty calls, and sometimes really hand the silly owner his hat.

As he said, funny no one has ever seen a cat skeleton in a tree -

My cats will do it for show. Ignore them awhile and they find a way to get back down.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:17 | 2237652 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

What are they going to do? Pull up the rails and sell them for scrap iron? That money is gone.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:23 | 2237677 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

ATHF +1!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:18 | 2237658 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Damn.  Shoulda read the fine print, bitchez!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:23 | 2237684 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Damn Fine print....gets me every time. hahaha

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:18 | 2237659 kalmeeg
kalmeeg's picture

Damn its like watching an episode of Real Housebitches of Europe!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:36 | 2237732 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

only the killer finish goes right across the pond and kicks the New York boys right between the legs

Hands up who wants to see the happy ending?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:49 | 2237776 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That was f..king funny! +1  I see some WB-7 ideas in that comment!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:18 | 2237660 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Tragedy, meet farce.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:48 | 2237770 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Farce, meet Senior Official.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:20 | 2237667 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

Wouldn't the CDS's not getting triggered be a far bigger problem ?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:25 | 2237687 RollOnShabbos
RollOnShabbos's picture

Would this trigger CDS? I'm kinda new to all this.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:19 | 2237868 Rainman
Rainman's picture

nein..contract law is suspended until further notice, per High Command.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:59 | 2238213 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Would this trigger CDS? I'm kinda new to all this.

Nah, nothing triggers CDS anymore. 

It's like buying car insurance, paying premiums faithfully every month, then totaling your car in a wreck and discovering it's not covered.

CDS is the biggest "insurance" ponzi scheme on the planet.  Somewhere around $1,500 trillion.   That's $1.5 QUADrillion.

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:22 | 2237674 surf0766
surf0766's picture

It looks like someone is always holding the last Ace. You will default.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:23 | 2237679 Howdan
Howdan's picture

Good - maybe some of those hedge funds will teach those smarmy, greasy, incompetent, criminally corrupt politicians a lesson. I hope Greece does "default" and get over and done with once and for all. I'm sick to death of these stupid politicians mugging us all off and living in Alice in Wonderland.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:23 | 2237681 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Holy iShit!!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:25 | 2237690 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

 

"The exchange has already been accepted by more than 75 percent of investors, a senior official told Reuters ahead of Thursday's 2000 GMT deadline."

Does that include the $100+ billion of Greek bonds already owned by the ECB?

Just askin'...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:35 | 2237726 Rogier
Rogier's picture

No, it doesn't.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:28 | 2237696 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Mr Vaporized meet Mr Acceleration

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:30 | 2237705 data_monkey
data_monkey's picture

The longer this drags out, the more opportunity there is to discover loopholes like this one.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:57 | 2238209 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

If the loophole is just now being discovered, whoever was responsible for buying the bonds in the first place ought to have his head shaved with a cheese grater for not knowing what he was buying up front.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:32 | 2237709 SgtSchultz
SgtSchultz's picture

Greece is going to default!  End of the world.

Wait, Greece has a debt deal.  World saved.

Greece is going to default!  End of the world.

Wait, Greece has a debt deal.  World saved.

Greece is going to default!  End of the world.

Wait, Greece has a debt deal.  World saved.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:35 | 2237725 PhilB
PhilB's picture

Its been a good couple of thousand years since Greece has felt so important to Western Civilization...I guess its 15 minutes of fame is almost up...for now.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:43 | 2237755 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

How appropriate...they are about to plunder the world again too...

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:14 | 2238472 edotabin
edotabin's picture

SGT Schultz,

It is obvious we know nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnothing!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:32 | 2237711 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Little fly in the olive oil spoils the whole vat.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:06 | 2237828 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

I hope Greece spit's a loogey in the banker's vat........

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:33 | 2237715 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I sense "deadline postponement" is afoot.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:39 | 2237743 bdc63
bdc63's picture

no doubt about it ... or another retroactive rule change ... but lying about the number of volunteers sounds like the easiest thing to do, so I vote for that ...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:33 | 2237717 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Ha ha. Force Greece to pay for some of it. That is the fucking joke of the day. These guys are in denial. Take the fucking loss. Let the system collapse and lets move the fuck on. JFC!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:35 | 2237718 miltiadis
miltiadis's picture

Reuters Reports that UK hates Euro and Greece will be under UK-law when it comes to bonds

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:39 | 2237745 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 We all know the Hands Of ZEUS and HERCULES are Tied. Bring on " MEDUSA /ASUDEM in two weeks ya ECB priority BITCHEZ!

 SLEWIE STYLE! OUT...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:45 | 2237760 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

This is becoming so warped it's not even funny.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:45 | 2237763 leathaface
leathaface's picture

What do the Greeks and ambulances have in common?

They both get loaded from the rear, and go WHOO WHOO!!!

take a page from Iceland's book, and tell those banker pricks to fuck off

 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:47 | 2237769 Dr Zaius
Dr Zaius's picture

Hedge funds found a loop hole?  Well gosh darn, who would have thought that?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:52 | 2237785 leathaface
leathaface's picture

wouldnt you try if you were being forced into an agreement that would siphon 75% of your investment?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:00 | 2238223 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's a pretty big loophole. Why didn't they know about it when they bought the fucking bonds? Did they even bother to know what they were buying?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:56 | 2237771 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I truely feel for the Geek people (I know that's not a very popular opinion on ZH) -- they have totally been lost from all of this discussion ... never before in the history of the world have so many demanded their piece of flesh from someone with so little to give ...

It's all just not sitting well with me tonight

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:05 | 2237824 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and next up to get Greek kornholed is the american people.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:32 | 2237916 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Hey I do feel bad for the Greeks. I mean if you have to give up your children because you can't feed them there is something inherently wrong. This is why the system needs to be reset. When blood gets shed by the people it will be over right quick. It will make the Arab Spring look like a fucking joke.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:06 | 2237827 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

I guess you don't know very much about history.  Back in the day, when a piece of flesh was demanded, they meant that literally!

Greeks don't know how good they have it!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:12 | 2237849 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

You must have skipped history. WWI ends, Treaty of Versailles, reparations payable only in gold, German hyperinflation follows.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:30 | 2238110 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

how bout balancing that out. there's that part of history where the germans invaded greece and subjugated them. and machine gunned any greek citizen that is caught resisting to the point of joining the underground. years ago there i was in a little mountain village where in the war the nazis had taken all the men outside of town and shot them down because underground activity was suspected. they left the bodies for their wives and children to drag home

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:26 | 2238093 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

@bdc63

"I truely feel for the Geek people (I know that's not a very popular opinion on ZH)"

I think your sentiment is in fact widely held here on ZH. It is just rarely expressed.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:51 | 2237780 hmn
hmn's picture

grasping at straws...game over...it's their ball...they decide the rules...Greece wins...naysayers lose...plain and simple.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 19:57 | 2237799 HD
HD's picture

Lawyers. It's always the lawyers.  On my deathbed I'm going to hire the biggest shister I can to find the ultimate loophole.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:04 | 2237822 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I hope that little shitbag RailRoad deal works! It would save a lot of hardship for an Ecomomy that is slave labor to it's creditors.

 I'm not condoning Greek life-styles, but a swift default would be welcome! Italy ,France,Spain,Portugal Ect.. are chomping at the BIT, on this.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:08 | 2237835 HD
HD's picture

Swift default? You mean banks and hedge funds taking actual losses for reckless behavior? Impossible!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:14 | 2237853 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Absolutely correct. I want a gander at those balance sheets. Banks vs Hedge Funds ? Thank God the Vultures were out there, or the travesty would be ( FAR) worse. I get your sarc/ though.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:36 | 2237927 TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Are you kidding me? That is just the tip of the iceberg! What about all the off balance shit? Dark pools, CDS, derivatives. It's what you don't know is in the closet that is scary!

I mean if there are 1.5 quadrillion in derivatives and 600 trillion of that is in US banks the rest has to reside somewhere right? The Chinese can't be that fucking stupid.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:04 | 2238231 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Sanctimonious Thoughts?   I like you already!  definition

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:03 | 2237819 WebSurfy
WebSurfy's picture

Oh dear! Feels like watching the final table of the WSOP (P=>Ponzi)

Greece is all in with 2-7 offsuit. Hedgies hole cards seem to be nice. Some other players still at the table. Who is holding the nuts? Anybody knows the rivercard? Seems like somebody is going to be rivered.

Isn't the bank winning always - at least as long as everyone keeps playing?

Anyway - the pot is nothing but a pile of debt full of counterparty risk.

No risk - no fun!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:06 | 2237830 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Ay dios mios Tyler

No mas mierda de ponzi por favor! 

Que coman torta.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:07 | 2237833 Zola
Zola's picture

So has the CDS been triggered or not ?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:07 | 2237834 Civil Shepard
Civil Shepard's picture

"trying to get blood out of a turnip" comes to mind

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:09 | 2237840 KickIce
KickIce's picture

So when have laws or contracts ever stopped these asshats?

Just look at Obama and the bondholders with GM, I would expect simiiar tactics in this case.

Question becomes at this point, why would any individual hold a bond at this point?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:10 | 2237843 kill switch
Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:21 | 2237871 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Its full on in your face, "we don't answer to congress" and they feel secure enough to say that on record.  Most people are still asleep...zzz...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:14 | 2238265 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Found on Market Ticker:

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-112hconres107ih/pdf/BILLS-112hconres1...

Glad to see some of the people in Congress beginning to at least act as if they are waking up.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:11 | 2238567 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

It'll die in committee.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:08 | 2238564 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

And the Kochs are trying to take control over Cato Institute.
Scumbags.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:15 | 2237855 ch25061
ch25061's picture

Come on now. Is it really plausible that the banksters
are going to let a little quibbling clause in
a puny railway issue derail their railroading
of all assets to themselves when they have
already steamrolled much larger greed
bumps in contract law. The premise has
been demonstrated time and again to be
preposterous.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:17 | 2237859 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

They should have just defaulted and been done with it.

The Greeks screwed themselves by electing a bunch of LIARS who promised everything by paying for nothing.

Germany and France fucked the Greeks by selling defense (what the fuck are they defending anyway?) weaponry that they could not afford and didn't need.

I lost interest when I saw that not one of those multi billon dollar contracts were canceled or delayed.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:25 | 2237884 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Please, stop this hype. Greece has defaulted, but no one cares. Bondholders were lining up to agree; 95 percent or so. It appears that Merkel cs. were right to insist on this PSI, and of course no Armageddon, credit event, CDS-trigger, CDS market collapse or hyper-deleveraging arises. One can only wonder why it took so long to accomplish this non-event. Friday market rally, just as I predicted for so many months.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:33 | 2237917 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree. "Railway bonds"? hahahaha. Is the rail line even running? I was told "it hasn't been for over a year now." well...if that's the case "repayment is the least of your worries." the fact of the matter is "Greece" for all intents and purposes has ceased to exist. not that the "Greek Government" can't decide to change their mind on this condition of course.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:36 | 2237928 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

The "Old Fritz" at it's best ...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:10 | 2238037 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Such a pity I cannot change my nick.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:00 | 2238224 number cruncher
number cruncher's picture

you do realise that 90% is with the cacs invoked....which is a cds trigger ...try reading the news properly... or just try reading properly...

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:28 | 2237892 oogs66
oogs66's picture

When at first you start to deceive :)

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 20:28 | 2237893 justsayin2u
justsayin2u's picture

Wonderful heh heh heh.  Now, will my counterparty with no reserves pay up on my CDS?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:01 | 2238010 Hoody Who
Hoody Who's picture

Are we there yet?  Wow, I just wish it would hurry on up and get here, whatever it is that's coming. 

I'm ready and been prepared.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:15 | 2238266 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Trust me, the coup is long since complete, and you're living in Brave New World - "it" isn't showing up anytime soon. Might as well eat the beans and rice before the expiration date. They'll be plenty to eat, albeit at higher and higher prices.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:04 | 2238020 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

shocking one atty found a loophole in another atty's contract... Its called the Litigators' Full Employment Act.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:10 | 2238036 element115
element115's picture

The Hellenic Railways wikipedia page says they lost €576 million on revenues of €105 million.

Are they that fucked up?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:22 | 2238079 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Talk about the Greeks not being able to feed their children. Wait till the shit hits the fan here in the USA...and it absolutely will hit the fan, and soon.

Greece will look like a Sunday picnic compared to the mayhem we're in for.

I'm glad I live where I do and not in a large urban area. Life's gonna get ugly, especially for the political classes here in the US. Makes my heart warm too :)

Guns and gold bitchez!

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:29 | 2238097 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

retracted

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:34 | 2238121 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Can we take a break and start Greece, Season 2 this fall?  I am starting to lose total interest, total Greece overload. Just wait till they're done with this one and then we can harp on Spain for the next year. Wow.  I think Iran will dwarf all this stupid shit but who knows.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:50 | 2238175 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Shit is about to go down. Did anyone see the just released January trade data from Australia? For anyone who was waiting for reliable, hard evidence of a Chinese hard landing, you need to see why Oz just printed a A$673M trade deficit on expectations of a A$1.5B surplus. Exports to China down 24%, Japan down 34%, iron ore down 23%.

Things are so unstable right now, a butterfly really could give us that final push over the edge. And don't get me started on solar flares.

'08's going to look like a walk in the park.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:00 | 2238371 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Japan up 150 points tonight...It's all Bullshit!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:24 | 2238487 rufusbird
rufusbird's picture

It's bullish! Better than expectd! Just wait until tomorrow, you'll see! On NBC!

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:41 | 2238515 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Right. It's been going down for years now and like others say, markets are up, up, up!
Read Gamma's prediction above (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/reuters-reports-hedge-funds-have-found-gre...). That seems a bit more realistic.
I'm not happy about it, but nothing will happen next week or next quarter.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 21:52 | 2238185 hr4eternity
hr4eternity's picture

Will Naked CDS payout if ISDA defines this as a credit event? 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:11 | 2238256 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

File under Cry Wolf.  The TBTFs and TPTB have matters firmly in hand. 

Not agreein' just sayin'  - is there any doubt at this point that the Epsons are running full speed and that, even though that is true, the proliferation of free money (to the 1%ers), posting of shit as collateral, etc., is all working like a charm.   A guy said to me today how good he is feeling because the stock market is up - Ben's wealth effect is clearly winning hearts and minds. The Western World's sheep are quiet and grazing peacefully, the Iran war is unlikely anytime soon, all is well.   The evidence clearly points in that direction.  Maybe we do make reality bend to our wishes hereabouts.

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:34 | 2238423 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

When the dollar bubble finally pops(my guess is between 2013 to 2016, after the Euro crashes), that is when the false reality we have been force fed will come crashing down.   It may also be the start of WWIII. 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:51 | 2238355 mt paul
mt paul's picture

let them eat

baklava 

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 22:52 | 2238358 freshfart
freshfart's picture

What happens to 1yr Greek bond yields that are over 1000% now. If this debt swap clusterfuck goes without triggering CDS, do their bond yields start to drop or shoot to the moon ?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:33 | 2238420 goldencrumbs
goldencrumbs's picture

I thought the BIG DEAL is the waterfall bifurcation of all sovereign debt bonds this could start... not CCDS trigger?

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 23:34 | 2238421 goldencrumbs
goldencrumbs's picture

Fat finger - CDS

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:04 | 2238454 Clinteastwood
Clinteastwood's picture

Here's the deal boys and girls:

The Greeks are not gonna pay and the big losers are the shadow banksters who thought $1.5 Quadrillion CDS was actually going to provide hedging.  In all truth, $1.5 Quadrillion CDS is now shown to be absoutely worthless because of counterparty risk.  If the Greeks don't wanna pay, no one will pay.  CDS game over.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 00:46 | 2238526 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Most excellent. Hope you're right. Would love to see the CDS foolishness end, as it should have in 2008.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 02:30 | 2238737 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/06/30/joe-cassanos-testimony-about-aig/

 

Joe Cassano - the man with uncovered options

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 01:27 | 2238605 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture
 Where in the Heck is J.R.
Fri, 03/09/2012 - 08:31 | 2238732 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Couldn't Greece simply give them the Railway in lieu ?  I mean  

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/21/business/global/21rail.html

Losses at Hellenic Railways, however, continue to mount — at the rate of 3 million euros ($3.8 million) a day. Its total debt has increased to $13 billion, or about 5 percent of Greece’s gross domestic product............Analysts estimate the total to be around $33.6 billion, a sum that would add another 11 percentage points to Greece’s current debt level of about 120 percent of gross domestic product.

For the better part of a decade, Greece has provided sovereign backing to Hellenic Railways, thus allowing it to borrow billions from accommodating foreigners even though the company’s finances are so skewed that it pays three times as much on interest expenses than it collects in revenue.

a company with 100 million euros in revenue can no longer borrow 1 billion euros a year

Hellenic Railways reported a loss of more than $1 billion in 2008, on sales of about $253 million

Between 2000 and 2009, the cost of the company’s payroll soared by 50 percent even as overall personnel decreased by 30 percent.

Fri, 03/09/2012 - 08:37 | 2239116 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

awwwww... and who in his right mind would buy this company from the Hellenic Republic? the first thing you would have to do is to cut their salaries and fire lots of workers.

if you are a foreigner, it's hell. and if you are in any way a German, it would be double hell.

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