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Revised EFSF Draft Shows Italy, Spain Responsible For One Third Of European Bailout Funding
Indicating just what a banana continent Europe has become, we present the latest, December version of the EFSF term sheet, where we want to emphasize just two things. First, as the slide below shows, even with Italian and Spanish bond yields blowing out beyond stratospheric levels, and is now glaringly obvious that Spain and Italy will be first in line for the next bailout which may come as soon as a week from today (thank you Australia), the EFSF still claims that Italy and France will be responsible to fund capital into the EFSF. How much capital? €232 billion to be specific. Which just so happens, is just under one third of the total amount that has been "guaranteed" by EFSF commitments (with insolvent Greece, Ireland and Portugal obviously stepped out). Let us repeat: One Third of the European bailout firepower resides with the insolvent Italy and Spain. We also get the following: "In case a country steps out, contribution keys would be readjusted among remaining guarantors and the guarantee committee amount would decrease accordingly." In other words, as we said back on July 21, when France is the last country to be stopped out of the contribution quota, it will be all up to Germany, or else. And second, and very near and dear to the recently popular topic of rehypothecation, we find that "Once purchased, EFSF could use for repos with commercial banks to support EFSF?s liquidity management." In other words, the bonds received to bailout the broke countries, can then be recycled with the ECB all over again (and potentially infinitely with no haircuts assuming Europe funnels everything through some London-based HoldCo), doubling down the capital burden on the ECB's already meaningless 5 billion capital tranche, then potentially re-repoed, and so on. And there are those who complain that Europe "does not print."
The farce:
And the full presentation (link):
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Stuck in Fantasyland at EuroDisney. Didn't that go bankrupt?
The size of the crack rock these Euro-idiots are smoking must be ginormous!
Well it's not a bad deal from Italy & Spain's perspective since they know they are the ones that will need it soon, and between the two of them they'll bleed the whole EFSF, so really they are making a 200% return!
Half of the game is desensitization. You can't have all the shorties pile on at once or the game is up in short order.
A little here, a little there. Up and down we go. Risk on one day and risk off the very next fucking day?
It's part of the game now.
Until one day (when you have lost your edge, fully desensitized) the whole thing comes crashing down on a Sunday night and you cannot catch a bid because the exchange is fucking closed!
So you wait till Monday (taking your losses overnight) and you cannot log into your software based trading system. You call them in a panic and you cannot get a live fucking person on the phone even after 75 calls to the 888 number.
Now things have gotten really bad and it's limit down. You're locked out.
Finally you get through and place you market order but the day is over. You pray that tomorrow will allow you to liquidate but it does not because the circuit beakers are tripped at the open.
You finally learn about the sell-side Algo predators who are tripping breakers from a story on Zerohedge.
The casino took it all again.
Meanwhile I'm sipping cognac and counting 1oz Eagles
To quote some horror movie: "The call is coming from inside the house -- GET OUT!"
Like trying to sell a burning house 1/3 gone and still burning. In the middle of housing crisis.
Look, I'll reduce the price by 30%. A little new paint, maybe a touch up here or there...
The wife is going to want new carpets though. Throw that in and I think I can bring her around.
EDIT: I say that in jest, but in fact some years ago my wife and I were in the market and found an ad for a 2 bed 1 bath fixer-upper. We drove out there and it was a literally burned down house with no roof and nearly no walls with only 2 bedrooms and 1 bath left of the structure. We laughed our asses off -- but I bet someone bought it with those terms. The market was that hot at the time.
As long as she likes the color "charcoal" I think we can work something out. I'll throw in the skylight free.
Okay it's a deal. Now will you take these 200x leveraged re-re-rehypothecated Italian bonds backed by MFGlobal GLD paper as full payment? Jamie sez they're solid.
Ok, but only because they are AAA rated.
I tend to look at things more from the "glass half full" perspective..
This implies that a full two thirds of nothing is left for all the rest.
"This handyman's special is looking for a special owner that loves to be a do-it-yourselfer. This is the perfect home for somebody looking for a home to grow with and love."
The EFSF just needs to hire some real estate agents to ply their bullshit trade and convince somebody that this piece of shit is not really a house of cards.
And the hits just keep on coming...
In other words, Greece has broken down under the weight of its statism and bureaucracy. “17,000 laws, decrees and edicts” merely for 'regulating competencies' within the ministries? Not even Brussels can hold a candle to that.
Naturally this vast bureaucratic labyrinth is an excellent breeding ground for corruption on a grand scale. One striking example was the discovery that a state-owned hospital in Athens had 45 gardeners on its payroll, but actually had no garden. The state-owned railway system has become like a black hole that attracts and destroys money at an astonishing rate. It was once calculated that if the government were to simply shut down the railway and instead pay the taxi fares of every single train commuter, it would actually save money.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/314221-the-greek-tragedy-chaos-beckons
here...let me lend you my garden hose. sure they cut off my water a few weeks back but it still goes drip, drip, drip!
Look dear, there goes that third bedroom we needed.
LOL- that's not printing, that's Xeroxing!
Idijits......
They are cloning clusterfucks. Just look at how succesfful they have been. Their creations can now be seen all across the globe.
Meanwhile the price of gold goes down. At what point is everybody loading back up on physical? We know Bernank won't be buying. He will probably be too busy playing Dungeons 'n Dragons.
yeah, "Idjits with digits" is more like it. there is no money. that's the lesson. this is going to be the greatest deflation ever witnessed in human history. the 1870 one last over a generation.
of course!
it is a ponzi, ya know!
One Third of the European bailout firepower resides with the insolvent Italy and Spain?
LMFAO...
Doesn't eveybody track down their deadbeat brother-in-law when they need a loan? Just tell him you are good for it and he will hand you over his maxed out credit card. Oops.
War = Force Majeur and the cessation of contractual obligations. Then the great fiat reset.
Don't get scared out of your hard assets, folks. And get some extra food!
BITCHEZZZZZZZZ
Cheers!
Food. http://www.costco.com/Common/Search.aspx?whse=BC&topnav=&search=Augason%...
can't be done. this is a currency union. there is no "going back."
Or Germany could ... say invade Poland? I think that might screw up something or other.
National Lampoon's European Rehypothication!
Expecting Italy and Spain to fund the EFSF is like expecting US "consumers" (formerly called citizens) to spend this country back to prosperity, and raises the same question - with what?
It is called "the C word". It is known as "credit". Don't you know, you don't need capital in capitalism? You just need more and more credit. That is what allows you to build. Now get back to QVC and buy some shit you don't need. The lines are open and the landfill awaits.
Creditism...AKA uberehypothecatedebtism
Imma reposting a comment I posted earlier in the week. Looks like it plays here too:
I sometimes imagine these geniuses getting together and discussing exactly this problem. When they do, I wonder how frank they are with each other?
Banker1: "That's because the snake is eating its own tail, fellows. And it always has."
Banker2: "Well it has to eat something. And there is a great deal of snake, as it is."
Banker3: "But clearly this is not sustainable. The snake will run out of snake to eat."
Banker1: "Not really. Even when eaten the snake is all there, only some of it is now inside some other of it."
Banker3: "Do not be ridiculous. Rome did not become a great empire by eating more bread than it baked."
Banker2: "Except when it was on the march."
Banker3: "At which point it ate the bread of others. Also not sustainable in the end."
Banker1: "It may seem so. But in reality so long as the snake is eating something the world goes on. All we've ever done in the past is make sure the snake grows in length faster than it eats its own self. There needs to be a free loop of snake so it can eat itself, there does not need to be all the snake."
Banker3: "The classic Ponzi. We all know how those end"
Banker1: "Ah but this could be not the classic Ponzi but the perfect Ponzi, you see. The problem with most Ponzi operations is you run out of new money. But in this case the snake is eating itself, so in theory it can never run out of snake, even if it is not growing. Running out of something that is simply being moved around the stage would be a logical falicy."
Banker2: "Which as we all know was a good enough argument for Congress in 1913. I don't see why we need to change the story now."
Banker3: "You are both insane, you know that, don't you?"
Banker1: "Or the universe of money is more nuanced than you are prepared to admit, my friend."
Banker2: "Which time and time again has proven true, you'll admit."
Banker3: "Since 1913, perhaps you have a point. And ultimately what matters most I suppose is how long it can be stretched out. For after the day of reckoning there won't be much discussion about fallacies one way or another."
Banker1: "Not if we can engineer a large enough collapse, there won't be."
Banker2: "All or nothing, this is love."
Banker3: "[raising glass of wine] To our god Oroboros, and the all and the nothing."
[clink of glasses, the string quartet seated nearby starts in on another light Boccherini sonata. And scene]
Guys. I'm bearish.
I've cracked.
Italy will be very rich in ten years time. And Spain in twenty years; the bitch is the next five. If only we could jump five years...lets make 29 Feb 2012, five leap year date!
They will be swimming in Pesos and Lire. It should be a time of great prosperity and condos for all.
Throw FranCCCe in there and it's over 50%....LOL.
LEAVE SOME BAILOUT FOR ME BRO'S!!
BTW, does anybody know how that 'EFSF bailout' buzzes best? Shall one sniff it, or inject, or disperse it in butter?
Too late, guys, too late. Guido ist geplatzt! I am sorry. The end of the world is nigh.
Well, if the ESFS would see to lending Italy double what it needs to put into the EFSF, it could then lend the extra half to the EFSF so the EFSF could make the loan.
In banker logic, that makes perfect sence.
You, Sir, make the most sense!
Let's get Brussels on the phone, you've solved the crisis!
Just kick these f*cking countries out of the EU. Take the pain and it'll be brutal as the CDS market blows up. Thats the cycle of life. Pain and pleasure
Only trouble is once you've kicked out 50% of the EU...there isn't an EU.
"I would never belong to a club that would have me as a member."
>Only trouble is once you've kicked out 50% of the EU...there isn't an EU.
And that's a bad thing? At this point...not.
Pathetic...
you don't get it, the money Spain puts up is the money Italy owes it and the money Italy puts up is the money Spain owes it. When Germany asks each of them for their contribution to save Portugal, Greece and Ireland, Italy will say "Spain will put up its own part as well as mine as it owes me". Spain will say the same thing. Result zero sum game.
Money has a quantum state? Whodanode?
The trick is to never ever go looking for any actual money. You take one look and -- poof -- the probability fields collapse and you end up with a physical asset, which only one of the parties can actually hold, leaving the rest in the lurch.
Shyte. Enough of that and there won't even be any money. Just assets. And if you want to know who then rules the world, just go where the real assets are.
zero sum? no, no. that's ye olde "we ain't paying you back but thanks for the payday loan" gambit.
Keenan v Bosco
How crazy is this one?????? Or is it .....
http://www.rumormillnews.com/pdfs/11%20civ%208500%20Keenan%20Complaint.pdf
Everything is diversion, all is manipulation. The ponzi is careening wildly and credibility is not even a consideration as the lies get ever more spectacular.
My friends, be open to all possibilities for where the ground lies is not exactly clear. Everything we "know" has been placed there and everyone has an angle, a bias. Sadly, seems things will only get stranger day by day. I think the truth will be revealed but be careful what we wish for...we may not like what we find.
Problem solved. Pay the Visa bill with the AMEX. Then pay the AMEX bill with Visa. Then pay Visa with AMEX ... etc. etc forever. Why can't they just keep doing this basically forever?
They can.
They are planning to.
Doing so is Plan A and a subtle varition on the theme of Plan A is the next several alternative plans as well.
This is absolutely fucking 4 realz.
I think this is more akin to check kiting. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Check_kiting
Man, that sounds like a brilliant idea. Haha.
this isn't just "banana republic" time...this is "instant banana republic time." it's not just the size but how quickly this collapse is coming. do NOT be in junk debt markets or commodities when this thing blows. you folks have no idea how lucky you are to have Team Geithner and Team Bernanke at the helm--as well as the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and now Director Petraeus et al. On the good side it would appear voting might be unnecessary this cycle. "kick back, grab a brew...or a glass of tap water actually" since that's all that free market capitalism allows right now.
Many many years ago when I received my first chequebook from my bank, I had an idea with my friend to write cheques to one another in increasing amounts which would sit in our accounts while the money cleared, until we became rich and could live off the interesf of these vast circulating sums of nothingess. We laughed called it stupid, certainly had been thought of and was most probably illegal.
Little did we know then that was exactly how the world really worked.
This is the check kiting i mentioned above. You have a great mind sir. We think alike.
To understand recursion, you must understand recursion.
I understand recursion, but sooner or later these Idjuts are gonna overflow the stack!
ROFL @ Malta
So, one's regurgitated vomit is another's orally ingested medicine.
Will someone let the esteemed banker-politicos know that we are on to their futile rogueries.
They can instead use the valuable time left to sell their mothers or whatever they do, in order to accumulate as much gold as they can get their hands on and prepare for some kind of debt-write off and significant mark-to-market deleveraging, before they prepare for the next few decades of artificial collateral multiplication.
Imagine how much artificial liquidity can be created by nthhypothecating the brand new $2500 - $3000 gold as collateral, after the inflationary induced global currency debasment.
At this point the two choices left are that of a somewhat, although doubtful, controlled demolition, or a market-dictated explosion that will sweep everything in a capitulative avalanche.
Per Kyle Bass; The only choice isn't about printing anymore, it is whether printing should be done pre-default, or post-default.
on a similar note, Mish did a piece recently where he calculated that Poland's expected contribution to the IMF (which would account for about 11% of the IMF's rescue funding) amounted to >30% of Poland's 2012 budget. yeah, that'll happen.
If tin-pot brokerages can re-re-re-rehypothecate... then why shouldn't soveriegns get in on the game?
Leverage the leverage bitches.
".. just what a banana continent Europe has become.."
Europe's more like a Watermelon ...green on the outside, red (flag) on the inside
a Marxist-Socialist idealistic fruitcake past it's sell-by-date (ie. rotten)
nah, that's just the banks, insurance companies, and politicians. the rest doesn't even have a clue what's about to happen..
Is anyone out there paying attention?
Tyler?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreign-banks-borrow-54-billion-through-fed-2011-12-15
The past seven days, the euro saw a nose dive....
A few weeks ago Kyle Bass mentioned December 19th (I think that was the day he gave) being the day Greece has to put-up or shut-up with regards to giving bond holders a voluntary "haircut". However I haven't heard anymore about this. Is the day of reckoning still on? My assumption is that a significant percentage of bond holders did not agree to the 50% haircut as 1/3 of the bondholders didn't earlier agree to a more modest 20% haircut. The question being, does Greece stiff the bond holders demanding payment in full and ignite a CDS shitstorm or does Greece pay those bond holders in full (if so, with who's money?) and sink into insolvency dragging many European banks with them?
Can anyone else comment on whether the day of reckoning with regards to Greece really is next week? Or, if not, how did Greece manage to kick the can further down the road? Bond holders don't like not being paid in full upon maturity of their bonds.
I never knew that printing or monetizing could be done in so many ways. Monetize they will. The germans wont allow direct, slap you in the face ECB monetization, but the indirect way tyler mentioned is perfect.
Have no fear of them finding the money. Once we are sure then it will be time for a reflation play.
Get your spanish property right here!
http://spain.themovechannel.com/
Just wait till it's fallen another 90% ;-)
Uhh, I changed my mind, not buying Spain.. I figure I may as well be spitted, roasted and eaten right here in the good ol' USA by our golden horde spilling out of the cities. Why get eaten by fourrineers..
Begging bowl in one hand, checkbook in the other, living the Irish dream, "May your last check bounce".
Shouldn't complain that Europe doesn't print, what they are doing with their money now is far more destructive, and quite risky. On another note, though the bankers and govts may be quite perplexed as to what steps to order next, the rulers in charge of this monetary fiasco know exactly what they are doing. It is the destruction of society as we know it, and the new one they invision will be designed in their image. I suspect it won't be pretty.
Ok, time for you to contribute
Scenario 1:
Umm yea, cheque is in the mail.. Just chilll!!! (If you remember an episode of Simpsons where Lisa becomes POTUS and Bart soothes the Creditors)
Scenario 2:
No, we will not pay.
Then EU being desperate for cash annexes or freezes assets as collateral or whatever.
Drum beat of war begin anew.
Scenario 3:
Pulls a wad of cash outta their asses they they "forgot" they had.
Scenario 4:
Sell soul to BRICs for cash. (aka $5 suckie suckie)
I won't enter into much details as to why but having read and analysed this report the conclusion is pretty obvious:- Greece, Ireland & Portugal will be the first 3 countries to leave the euro area either by force or in an orderly manner
From the GoldenJackass:
Central banks are the current sovereign debt market. It is a vacated market. They are the majority bidders via debt monetization. The monetary inflation has become the New Normal and a travesty. In perverse fashion, the financial markets celebrate the monetized purchases, even calling for higher volume. In the process, bond and stock market integrity has been destroyed. Foreign creditors depart the USTreasury Bond market. Large European banks depart the Southern Europe sovereign debt market. Central banks step in to avert panic as the underlying structure to the global monetary system crumbles. When government bond yields rose quickly in Europe, it was not from abandonment by their central bank. The big Euro banks sell boatloads of bonds while the EuroCB buys only truckloads. The bond market integrity has been deteriorating very quickly. The dependence upon the debt monetization process is vividly clear. It is hyper monetary inflation to fill the void, thus providing the dominant bid. Ironically, the dullard stock market mavens celebrate the arrival of the central bank purchases without truly comprehending the destroyed integrity of the bond market. IQ levels are falling along with stock index levels.
"It would have been better to stay in the Paradise of Eldorado instead of returning to this accursed Europe. How right you are, my dear Martin! Everything is illusion and calamity!"
- Voltaire, Candide, Chapter 24
Hyper-rehypothecated gold collateral! Sounds infinite! Can't wait.
The whole thing is a complete farce. Everyone knows that there are no longer fundamentals to carry the amount of sovereign and bank debt that is being carried and newly created. Everyone knows that, but no one wants to pay the piper and no one will, until they are forced to.
Does any politician today have the political will to make anyone accept acute, albeit short term pain? Any acute pain will be blamed on the governing power, and the people, will never accept it willingly unless prepared to accept it through pre-conditioning and we know that's not going to happen either. The media everywhere is complicit in the big lie, so most of the masses are absolutely clueless as to why anything is really happening.
I'm afraid that the bottom is a ways off. Especially, when the City of London can re-hypothecate into infinity with no limits whatsoever. No wonder Cameron wants to protect this fantastic little credit making, smoking mirror machine, he is essentially saving the world from the truth which would bring the entire ponzi down and the politicians down with it.
And while this is going on and banks are enriching themselves selling CDS's and other products that they will never have to make good on, the government is quietly preparing for the end of the game so that when this bubble does finally pop and the reseting of this fiat system is visited upon the world, they will have created an apparatus of control so efficient that they will just be able to round up millions of dissenters into privatised work camps, so that finally, the US can compete with Chinese manufacturing.
I can't wait! I was semi joking about the work camps, but when I look into the future, I see post apocalyptic short stories that I wrote when I was in high school.