Revised Q2 GDP Prints At 1.0%, Below Expectations Of 1.1%, Down From Preliminary 1.3%

Tyler Durden's picture

The first revision to Q1 GDP printed at 1.0%, down from the preliminary Q2 GDP print of 1.3%, and as expected was worse than Wall Street consensus of -1.1%, although it was certainly not as bad as the miss to the preliminary number. Stone McCarthy's forecast of 0.7% is not necessarily wrong: it is probably just early: the final revision to Q2 GDP will come on September 29, one week after the next FOMC meeting, and will be the last sub 1% GDP growth number before we see a negative GDP print for Q3. Personal Consumption printed a little better than expected at 0.4%, higher than consensus of 0.2%. Alas, this number will be whacked massively in Q3. Core PCE was also slightly higher than expectations of 2.1%, coming at 2.2%. The components of the 1.0% revised GDP were: PCE: 0.3%; Fixed Investment: 1.01%, Change in Private Inventories: -0.23%; Exports: 0.41%; Imports -0.31%; and Government consumption -0.18%. This is the third consecutive quarter in which the government has taken away from growth.

Full breakdown below:

And here is why any rumors of a US recovery are greatly exagerated:

And here is Goldman's breakdown:

1. Q2 real GDP growth was revised down to 1.0% (quarter-over-quarter, annualized) in the second estimate, down from 1.3% in the advance report. The revision reflected a reduction in the contribution from inventories to -0.2 percentage points (pp) from +0.2pp previously. Final sales growth-GDP excluding the effects of inventories-was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1% in the advance report. Changes in the components were in line with our expectations. Consumer spending and business fixed investment were revised up, but net exports were revised down. Other components were close to unchanged.

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ShowMeTheTime's picture

The thump you just heard was the recession falling into line..

DUNTHAT's picture

This print gives bernanke a little cover to justify NO QE3.

Later will be revised nto neg .5.

Bohemian Clubber's picture

It will be revised subzero in a quarter anyway...

kridkrid's picture

Even the revision will be a lie. 

Archimedes's picture

Ah, a big nothingburger. Kind of like what I expect out of the Bernank in an hour or so....

SheepDog-One's picture

Big fence straddling waffle-fest....the Bernank LOVES being able to hold out the carrot on a stick without having to deliver a thing. 

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Ben said "I don't want no Stinkin Sub 1% Print before my speech"...

He has spoken and so it was done...

Who didn't see this coming???

Rothbardian in Cleveland's picture

That IS a tasty burger!  Vincent, ever have a Big Nothingburger?

knukles's picture

(Vincent shakes head no.)

Now that is just one of the finest fucking scenes in the film.  Right up there with Bruce Willis and Vig Rhames in the basement....

pods's picture

"Do they speak english in what?!"

pods

Gibu The Great's picture

At what point today will equities realize there is no QE coming (yet). 

TheTmfreak's picture

For some reason I feel that they'll be able to spin it around to reinforce the bull.

"No QE means everything is great, so buy buy buy!"

Gibu The Great's picture

I don't think that is likely, but if they do I think they're going to have a hard time spinning next Friday's payroll numbers! 

Scalaris's picture

I actually think that MSM are perfectly capable of transforming whatever nonsensical fact, be it bearish or downright shit, into a glimpse of sunny bullishness. I specifically recall an instance from a few days ago when every single piece of news coming out was worse than the previous one, and I mean from a substabtial Chinese economy contraction to completely awful US economic indicators. Yet when the DOW initiated its full retard sequence, I actually heard Bloomberg's Matt Miller saying that the only "reasonable" explanation is that due to the storm of negative economic news, "investors" are taking their positions because it was more likely for Bernanke to announce QE3. (o_o)  

knukles's picture

Oh come on... that'll be Great For Inflation, the Fed won't have to tighten and stocks'll rally. 
Get With The fucking Program!

props2009's picture

I think that numbers are being managed to make grounds for QE3 if not now atleast in sept.

 

Charts on MS, GS  and BAC are in severe downtrend. No amount of data can alleiviate the pain and we will see QE3 if not now next month.

 

charts:

http://capital3x.com/?p=278

knukles's picture

Conspiracy or lies?
Which is worse?

kridkrid's picture

They rounded up.  Doesn't even matter what number they rounded up from... they were always going to round up to +1%. 

Dapper Dan's picture

We will see some growth starting next week, predominately in the debris hauling, and constructing industries.

 

HelluvaEngineer's picture

It's also good with Guinness

Flakmeister's picture

Don't laugh.... try and find a flashlight in Westchester....

LawsofPhysics's picture

No, Irene is not that bad and will not do much.  Gonna evaporate as soon as it hits the cape.  The drought conditions in the Southest, just like in Texas are very bad and there is plenty of room on land in the vegetation to suck all the moisture out of this hurricane in a second.  This is a GOOD thing, several of my crops need the water desperately.  BRING IT.

Flakmeister's picture

Up here in Westchester, we have had a historically wet August. The ground is completely saturated... There will be some serious flooding with 4-8"....

LawsofPhysics's picture

Mark my words, Irene won't make it that far.  Send your water south. Several crates of Pecans in it for you if you can make it happen.

knukles's picture

I'm sorry, don't mean to be a tidge forward, but I can't resist.  Did you do a shitload of drugs as a child?  Did you ever stop?

Flakmeister's picture

I hope you are correct.... but I try to follow the maxim that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure...

I was in Halifax the week after Juan hit in 2003. Juan was a fast moving modest cat 1-2 that made a direct hit on the city. The city was devastated, partially because it had been ~100 years since a hurricane had landed in the area. Trees everywhere. Westchester is similar, lots of old dodgy trees waiting for a big gust. 

I would gladly send you the water, some golf courses here are soaked and almost unplayable... 

bankruptcylawyer's picture

the ground will suck it up? so you are saying a hurricane is not bad if it doesn't flood you out?

 

you might know laws of physics but lack those of common sense. i'm as cynical as the most about weather panic, but this thing is 90% to show up centered on new york city in 2 days, and 95% to hit the northeast generally. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

First of all, fuck new york city.

Second, remember that hurricance (with actually MORE moisture than Irene) that hit Texas.

What happened?  Poof!  Gone.

 

"95% to hit the northeast generally. "  -  So NOW you are saying that weathermen are suddenly correct in all their predictions.

Talk about a LACK of common sense.

Esso's picture

Bullish demolition. Construction, not so much.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

The spread between the GDP deflator and the real inflation rate at least 5%, so in reality the economy continues to shrink by at least 4%. Depression since 2007.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Indeed.  Way to cut through the bullshit.  Prestidigiflation FTMFW! 

Rothbardian in Cleveland's picture

BEA's calculation is a joke!!!!  The whole owner occupied rent concept is ridiculous.  How do they look people in the eye and say "there's no inflation" when people are standing in a freakin' store. 

 

Funny, but the Wiemar Republic did exactly the same thing.  As crap was spiraling out of control their current day ministry of truth was publishing statistics that everything was fine.

 

Sig Heil Bitchez!

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Also, Private investment is only up "officially" 0.15%. That's were recoveries come from, capital investment. What would Murray make of all this insanity if he was alive today, especially with all the internet access? He could see through the all the bull way back. Even wrote an amazing critique of the Chicago School, monetarism and Friedman way back in 1971 before it influenced policy makers. 

giocatoli's picture

Which Murray? Bill? Rothbard?  To which critique are you referring, as I am interested in reading such.

 

THX

Rothbardian in Cleveland's picture

Bill of course.  The dissertation was post his 1971 arrest when he was advocating a move to the Cannabis Standard.  Sadly, after the confiscation of said herb, his theories were discredited by a sea of voices from the fiat crowd.  He fled the field of economics for greener pastures in entertainment to the regret of canna-numismaticists around the world.

gaijin's picture

The corporate profit numbers were revised down 5% from prior and now stand at 0% year-over-year...would one expect this, in combination with GDP, to move markets sginificantly lower independent of Bernanke's speech?

knukles's picture

Oh fuck yeah!  Let's put a 70X multiple on that shit and stocks'll make that 100,000 DJIA projection in no time.

MFL8240's picture

What is the GDP number after REAL INFLATION?  Great job Obama, you are carrying out the Saul Alinsky plan to a tee.  Time now for amnesty to push what is left of this economy over the hill.

Esso's picture

"What is the GDP number after REAL INFLATION?"

I make it at about -15%, but I've always been hopelessly optimistic.

PulauHantu29's picture

Better then expected. Remove military spending and conumser spending and you get how much?

The most important figure, cap investment, is zilch.

El Gordo's picture

Forget all the fundamentals and analysis.  All you need to know is that I just hit the send key on my buy order and it's already down $.50.  When I buy, it's time to sell.

--Freedom--'s picture

Depends what you're buying.

props2009's picture

thats funny. suggest wait for the Bernanke speech which may include QE3 or atleast a mention