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Revised Q3 GDP Drops By 20% To 2.0%, Misses Expectations Of 2.5% By 2 Standard Deviations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So much for the miraculous inventory expansion. JPM's Michael Feroli was spot on: the strategist who predicted a significantly below par revised Q3 GDP print of 2.0%, was right on the dot. Advance GDP dropped from 2.5% to 2.0%, missing expectations of an unchanged print. The impact was entirely due to Inventories detracting from growth, with the Private Inventory number declining from -1.08% to -1.55%. And to those expecting a surge in Q4 GDP based on inventory restocking, which would be virtually all Wall Street economists who missed today's number by 2 standard deviations, we have one thing to say: it ain't happening. In fact, liquidations are coming first, fast and furious with Personal Consumption coming at 2.3%, and missing estimates. Needless to say futures, are not happy.

And this is why the lemmings get paid the big bucks, courtesy of Bloomberg:

 

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Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:41 | 1902073 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Does anyone really care about GDP?  All I know is that I can look at Becky Quick instead of that horse-face Michelle Caruso-Cabrera. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:13 | 1902208 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

" 'Zippy Banana Pants.' I kinda' like that name. Thank you for the compliment, Zippy ! I always love hearing from one of my three viewers."

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/184/bq4c.jpg

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:21 | 1902241 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

The three: Zippy, Buffett, and - I need some help on the third. RobotTrader ?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:01 | 1902389 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Please don't take my words out of context.  I said look at, believe me, the volume is muted.  I might listen to Bloomberg radio during the day, but the idiots on CNBC, no way. 

I was just getting tired of seeing horse-face strike a pose every morning.  At times it was frightening.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:40 | 1902564 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

It's hard to tell what Becky is saying since she has Warren Buffet's c*ck so far down her throat. 

 

Was that out of line, ummm, sorry.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:59 | 1902833 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

You really think he can still get it up?

Guess he took the blue pill.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:44 | 1902084 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Too bad the price index came in as expected.

Otherwise, we'd be hyperventilating about the QE3 trade by now.

Well there's still the FOMC minutes to keep that hope alive.

Gotta keep the no crash DEC tradition alive.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:48 | 1902105 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Gotta keep the no crash DEC tradition alive.'

First time for everything.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:47 | 1902096 imsaul0968
imsaul0968's picture

For those of you who invest in an IRA or for long term goals, theres a better approach than buy,hold,hope. Stocks follow the economy so analyzing the economy, specifically the factors that are "leading indicators" and having exposure to equities only when the economy is headed in the right direction and avoiding equities in favor of safe haven baskets is a much more logical approach. And missing the major drawdowns is the only way to help ensure meeting your goals.  If you are interested in investing in a portfolio that tactically invests in equity and safe haven baskets via ETF's automatically, please email me at:

eclark@breakaway-partners.com

and I'll add you to the weekly market commentary & portfolio update distribution list.  Its free to add you and you can follow along our model and our views.  We have been RISK-OFF since 6/30 so have missed all this wicked volatility. Currently invested in short duration treasury baskets as flight to safety drives interest in our debt. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:55 | 1902136 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You lost all credibility when you said "stocks follow the economy". Stocks do not follow the economy, they are a leading indicator of where the economy is going. Try again.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:02 | 1902171 fuu
fuu's picture

I think he lost all credibility when he said the following as his second and third post ever:

"I totally agree. Im actually amazed by all the conspiracy theorists out there. Bottom line, GS people(and I know many) are smart, savy, strategic and very forward thinking. I only wish I had the info they have when dealing with client orders. Theyre job is to deliver products their clients want, then they reduce the risk they have as a firm to those positions and hopefully, leverage this knowledge into investments that will benefit the firms shareholders, employeee's, and clients.  All this anti-GS talk just wreaks of jealousy from people that don't have enough money to be a GS client. There I said it!"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exposing-story-behind-goldmans-record-profits#comment-229373

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exposing-story-behind-goldmans-record-profits#comment-229375

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:06 | 1902183 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I missed that, but yes, that would be enough to lose credibility right out of the gate.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:34 | 1902293 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

"Bottom line, GS people(and I know many) are smart, savy, strategic and very forward thinking."

Hahahahahahahahaha.........gasp..hahahahahahahahahahaha.

These guys are the same kind of guys you will find at any used car lot. The same. They are not smarter or even vary fond of thinkng unless its how to get their numbers up.

Either your a mark or they will brag about how stupid their marks are. 

Thanks for the morning laugh.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:09 | 1902401 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

kick his ignorant ass, fuu!

the styoooopid troll won't STFU and is really testing the zeroHeads to see how many are brain-dead and will "register" to use his site

the very model perfected by ORI for his bosses and handlers--just pretend you're operating on faceFuk and make new "friends" who (like falak penis for ORI) will then act like you're cool and give you green arrows for cover while doing their own promotions, too (like falak penis and his fuking book hype)

like the celente trolls and most certainly celente himself, they have no respect for zH, it's freedom, and why it is what it is, today.  they will do anything for personal publicity and to increase their web-site traffic;  that is their only reason for being on zH! 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:54 | 1902817 fuu
fuu's picture

I <3 you sir!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:10 | 1902425 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

The reason it is a leading indicator is because large players that have access to information that you don't are making bets and moving the market.  If you look at it that way, it becomes clear that it is just gambling and not investing. 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:05 | 1902180 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Do you invest in financials and retail stocks? I have been investing in these sectors without much luck and could really do with some expert advice.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:07 | 1902190 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Ask me, I invest in retail stocks. In fact, my March puts on Lulu are looking very good right now.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:18 | 1902231 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Government bonds... investments in the unemployed and toxic asset sectors are growth opportunities.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:47 | 1902098 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Q3 debt grew by $447 Billion....Q3 GDP grew by $169 Billion. That is all people need to know about the 'health' of the US economy.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:57 | 1902145 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This is good, ...right? 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:03 | 1902174 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I thought GDP did not matter.  J. Cramer just said "buy and hold."  

/sarc

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:07 | 1902188 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Never mind.  J. Cramer has returned to totally incomprehensible commentary.  From "think long term" to "Euro bank failure" to "hyperinflation and buy gold."

The guy obviously needs Zanex injections every ten minutes.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:27 | 1902264 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

I haven't access to a televison at present. Is a Post-it note with the letters "FMCN" affixed to Cramer's forehead ?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:58 | 1902152 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Nice numbers. The bigger one is larger than the smaller one, isn't it?

"Hey everybody! I have melanoma of the skin, lupus, gonorrhea, tuberculosis, herpes, cystic fibrosis, hypertension, cataracts, and diabetes, but I don't have a cold, so I'd say I'm pretty fucking healthy, bitchez!"

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:09 | 1902196 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

It is easy to get positive GDP by just adjusting the CPI.  The lower we make it, the higher growth we have. And COLAs are lower too. Everyone wins except the truth.

And you may want to throw in the $1.5 trillion increase in unfunded liabilities which are politically impossible to elimminate.

With debt and unfunded liabilities growing so much faster than a massaged GDP, it is a wonder that everyone is rushing to the safety of US treasuries.  More Bizzaro than Bizzaro world.

 

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:16 | 1902222 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

+1, Papaswamp. +1.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:48 | 1902101 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

steve lies-man said its ok

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:50 | 1902111 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Personal income sucks...people keep dipping into savings to spend.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:54 | 1902131 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Green shoots!!  Sure!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:55 | 1902135 youngman
youngman's picture

Its hard to invest when the Government statistics are so wrong....this change from 2.5% which is almost growth to 2% which is still recession depression...is a big change....that run up in the stock market was on bad data....and people are going to lose money now because of it...all for a politicans speech

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 09:56 | 1902142 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Last decemeber Goldman welcomed the recovery with a forecast of 2011 GDP @ 4% and a 10year @ wait for it............3.75%.

Perhaps there was a typo and they really meant the 30 year?

Of course i mock but they got 7 figures for that dart throwing exercise.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:01 | 1902162 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Using your avatar as fodder for my comment, consider that Goldman Sachs always plays the part of Lucy, setting up the football for Charlie Brown - i.e., the Amerikkkan people.

Then, Lucy does what she always does when Charlie Brown runs up to kick the football.

Works every time.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:28 | 1902267 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

+1

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:00 | 1902159 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

"Santa has left the building"(his sleigh is empty). Inventories down, baltic dry down 20% ish y/y for October, presales since October stripping off the holiday sales. You can't sell what you dont have or what everyone already has and is not needed. No inventory here on which to build a santa rally...The best you can do is revenue increases from that thing we dont have.... starts with an I ...Inflation!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:08 | 1902181 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

First he shone some light on the 60 billion per year squatter's rent situation, now he goes against the grain here. Ferolli is soon going to be out on the street. Maybe ZH should look at his resume. Oh, and it looks like Joe Lavorgna is starting to read ZH, he's a little closer to actual this time.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:07 | 1902186 Ese Pinche
Ese Pinche's picture

Keep pushing the rope... f**k while its flacid... and more futile methods of stimulation.  GDP will not improve without growth "."  And that is something the world does not have (on a net basis) any longer.  Decade long Bear Btichez!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:13 | 1902213 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Still working on that economic model for infinite growth in a world with finite resources?  Good luck with that.

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:14 | 1902217 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Doh!

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 10:41 | 1902313 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

As if the GDP number was bullish to begin with. When was the last time real (inflation adjusted) GDP was positive? Anyone?

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 11:31 | 1902513 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

not sure, ok?

methinks it might have been 4Q'10 or 1Q'11

just b4 the tsunami and fuk_u, basically, IMO

actually, with the *inflation* numbers = bullshitskie, there is probably little agreement, but i think we have been negative for about 6 months, now, and w/ europa fully floundering in flanders, growth is highly problematic in the West

you won't hear that from the banksters, tho:  just "positive" numbers from their "e-CON-you-miss" forecasters who NEVER seem to use the words "nominal" and "adjusted" (except for a select & intelligent few, like Rosie)

ZIRP is inflationary and just b/c the HOT money in commodities has gone in on the short side we're s'posed to believe that the benzelbub and his bubbas have "got inflation under control" b/c these prices are being forced down, now, by the same mechanisms that pushed them up a relatively short while ago

jeeeez!  i may have been born at night, but...

Tue, 11/22/2011 - 12:24 | 1902724 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

So, BTFD, right?

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