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Revised Troika Forecast Sees Total Greek Debt-To-GDP Peaking At 186%: Here Is What Happens Next

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in May 2, 2010, when discussing the first failed Greek bailout (still to be implemented) we made the following observation: "Ignore for a second the sheer lunacy of anyone who thinks that the Greek government can grow GDP and decline the budget deficit in a straight line now that the country will see crippling strikes and rolling riots (not to mention blackouts) on a daily basis. But do note the black line, which shows the projected Debt/GDP ratio for the country as part of the bailout package. In essence Greece will go from having "only" a 133% Debt/GDP ratio to an insane 149% in 2013 before presumably dropping to 144% lower in 2014, still a good 11% higher than currently. Greece just got bailed out so it can get into even more debt! What psychopath of the Keynesian school thinks that this unbelievable trajectory is anything but a complete and utter waste of money? German, and US taxpayers, are merely giving Greece money so it can increase it debtor status with French and a few other European banks. To say that this is a viable solution is something that only those who bow at the altar of Alan Greenspan can do." And so once again, in the endless battle between common sense and Keynesianism, it is former 1 - latter 0, after the Troika yesterday released its revised projections for total Greek debt/GDP, which has just been hiked from 149% to 186% by 2013! Said otherwise, Econ 101 textbook insanity just cost the Greek people roughly half their entire GDP in incremental debt (which they will never be able to repay anyway), however in the process they kept French banks alive and well as a Greek default in May 2010 (the only real option) would have not only destroyed a failed economic monetary union, but blown up the entire French bank system. Fair trade off in that other endless battle, between the 99% and the 1%.

The chart below shows the relentless negative revisions in the Greek catastrophe. The longer a default is delayed, the worse the total debt-to-GDP will be:

And as for reality which is slowly returning, perhaps if Greece and Troika had read the following Citibank report, instead of threatening to sue as we reported, it would have realized that sometimes a calculator is your better friend than lawsuit threats. Recall this piece: "Citi Expects A 76% Haircut On Greek Debt (And 95% If Country Waits 4 Years) For Debt/GDP Ratio Back Down To 60%" which came out months before the July 21 proposal came out with a 21% haircut idea. Obviously the reason why nobody took the 21% haircut seriously at the time, or ever, is that it was a total mockery. Sure enough, it only took the Troika half a year to understand simple math, and even so it still has a way to go. From the just released report: "The results show that debt can be brought to just above120 percent of GDP by end-2020 if 50 percent discounts are applied. Given still-delayed market access, large scale additional official financing requirements would remain, estimated at some €114 billion (under the market access assumptions used). To get the debt down further would require a larger private sector contribution (for instance, to reduce debt below 110 percent of GDP by 2020 would require a face value reduction of at least 60 percent and/or more concessional official sector financing terms). Additional official financing requirements could be reduced to an estimated €109 billion in this instance. Of course, it must be noted that the estimated costs to the official sector exclude any contagion-related costs."

In other words, even the "Ostrich with its head stuck in the sand" known as Europe, finally did the math on both Bailout 1 and Bailout 2 and realized they don't work. But at least it is a start. Of course, between May 2010 and October 2011 the market had countless ramps on expectations that the "Bailout would work", confirming yet again that the market is now completely irrational, inefficient and broken. But we all knew that...

Alas, as we have reported, having actually done the math, the EFSF plan will also fail. But it will take Europe, the Troika and the market about 16 months to fully comprehend that. In the meantime we will see ever more violent rallies and plunges as the market's optimistic cognitive bias, and its recurring clashes with mathematics, come into full view, over and over.

Next Steps

And now that even France appears ready to admit defeat and accept a 50% haircut on Greek debt, here is what happens next. Every PIIGS country in Europe will demand the same treatment: in fact we expect Ireland and Portugal, followed shortly by Italy and Spain, to pull a Greece and report worse economic data than actual, just to attract the bond vigilantes attention, have their spreads blow out, becoming the next Greece in the process and getting a "half off debt" blue light special. In fact, the faster the better, as there will likely not be enough firepower for the last of the 5 PIIGS. Of course, by then French banks will be thoroughly undercapitalized, needing well more than E100 billion of the allotted capital, and France will long have been downgraded from AAA, forcing the EFSF to be the sole burden of Germany, which will have to pledge anywhere between half and 133% of its GDP, to keep the EUR and Europe solvent. Good luck with that.

But yes, there will be a short and sweet rally in the EURUSD... Until the reality predicted above once again defeats all the temporary insanity that is now the only upside catalyst of modern 'capital markets'.

Full Troika revised admission of failure below:

 

 

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Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:11 | 1799961 Mongo
Mongo's picture

"Strictly confidential"... BITCHEZ!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:13 | 1799999 FinHits
FinHits's picture

"The results show that debt can be brought to just above 120 percent of GDP by end-2020 if 50 percent discounts are applied. Given still-delayed market access, large scale additional official financing requirements would remain, estimated at some 114 billion (under the market access assumptions used). To get the debt down further would require a larger private sector contribution(for instance, to reduce debt below 110 percent of GDP by 2020 would require a facevalue reduction of at least 60 percent and/or more concessional official sectorfinancing terms). Additional official financing requirements could be reduced to an estimated 109 billion in this instance. Of course, it must be noted that the estimatedcosts to the official sector exclude any contagion-related costs.

"(1) The ECB does not agree with the inclusion of these illustrative scenarios concerning a deeper PSI in this report."

Pricesless!

Prepare for the -50% PSI scenario to be announced and the Greece Bailout II total to be EUR 114 billion (What will be Eurozone vs. IMF share?)

I am personally rooting the oh-so-tough -60% PSI discount and EUR 109 billion, as that would maintain the illusion that this was all pre-planned already in July 2011 when the EUR 109 billion was announced and now cleverly maintained.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:30 | 1800129 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I believe it’s time to get this economy sorted out once and for all. It’s time we called a G8 meeting, so that world leaders can devise a plan for coordinated and aggressive fiscal policy. And it’s not just up to politicians - central bankers across the world also need to get serious with regards to monetary policy. This crisis is too big for countries to act alone. This economic crisis is not going to be solved without groundbreaking advancements in global economic governance. Together we are stronger, so let’s get together and TAKE ACTION.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:38 | 1800143 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All of your posts read like nonsense.  It is like you have no idea what math is.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:24 | 1800215 macholatte
macholatte's picture

The arithmetic is irrelevant to anything other than helping to create the illusion that someone actually put some numbers together and wrote a report. The only thing that is important is this:

Alas, as we have reported, having actually done the math, the EFSF plan will also fail. But it will take Europe, the Troika and the market about 16 months to fully comprehend that.

If/when the "markets calm down" and return to "normal" it will be a lot easier for GS and company to off-load the toxic shit onto the sheeple/clients and then the real bailout of the elites will have happened. Just the fees for pulling this off will be serious gas money for the mega yacht crowd. 

 

There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable.There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
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Sat, 10/22/2011 - 18:59 | 1800598 whiskeyjim
whiskeyjim's picture

What you are describing has a name. It is called TARP.

It results in high unemployment and stagnation because markets can not clear. But it also results in political fortunes, high lawyer and consulting fees, significantly expanded government power, bank rewards and other rent seeking beyond all knowing.

So we have that going for us. Which is nice.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:42 | 1800147 malikai
malikai's picture

We must join hands between the conservatives and liberals of the nations of the world under the flag of Soros to bring this crisis to solution. I am with you, brother.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:58 | 1800182 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

How about a different idea. How about we give up central planning. How about we quit indenting the citizenry against their will to fund these grand Keynesian schemes? I know, snowball's chance in hell. So how about a halfway solution? Every central planner who votes for this stupidity has to put up a proportional amount of their own money? If Greek bonds take a 50% haircut, then the planners do too. If the Greeks default, then the genius planners get to rejoin the middle class and poor, too. It would stop this stupidity in a heartbeat.

I am a libertarian but this is true class warfare. It is not the rich vs the poor like the moronic leftists portray. It is the political class versus citizens everywhere. This is exactly how we all become debt serfs to governments and businesses connected to government.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:07 | 1800344 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

The reason the EU fails is because:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:43 | 1800405 Reptil
Reptil's picture

agree 100%; it's a silent coup.

Minister Maxime Verhagen here (Netherlands) transferring souverignity without admittance he's doing this. These politicians honestly think that this is going to work in the long run (doing away with political structures and checks and balances for some vague unchecked invisible powerbase in some other part of the continent (Brussels)).
Honestly; if they (EU Commission) have messed up so far, what's the prognosis for them, mending their ways, and dealing with the corruption?
How about this powerbase not having ANY control over the citizenry in the decades following the (inevitable) financial collapse? How about the whole thing turning into chaos at some point? That's what these politicians are aiminig for. They're aiming for 17 Papandreou type failures. Because that is the world they live in themselves.

The european union can ONLY work when there's an equality between commercial and non-commercial (humanitarian) interests. Otherwise it's just figments of megalomaniac imagination and doomed. NO empire ever survived or thrived when it's powerbase became too centralised. Therefore I see a bleak future for europe if the democratic checks and balances are done away with. Just like the USA a federal government with too much power has no feedback from citizens and local business, and will be a terrible incompetent but threatening structure. It will inmediately spawn local (provincial) governement to grow stronger, as every action has a reaction (enlargement of scale, evoces a vacuum in local powerbases). The problem is then, this will lead to a fractured rivalling continent (and economy) and a breakdown in international business after a decade or so.
Fools!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 22:48 | 1801097 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I think you are on the right track. The problem is always centralization of power. It gives the power of gods to a small handful of men who fancy themselves gods. Power corrupts. Let me leverage your idea and consider this: Central planning itself is a form of conceit. Conceit begets arrogance. The arrogant ignore all those feedback mechanisms you mention.

I have a new theory I am exploring. The idea is this: You cannot have a democracy and a powerful central government. It is not just the simple equation that powerful governments by nature usurp freedom. It is more subtle than that. The genius of a weak central government is that it takes away the power of each of us to fiddle with the other. Regulations are written by people who absolutely nothing about what they are regulating...but suppose they do. The other part of the problem is Greece. Politicians lied and said you can retire at 50, have two months of vacation per year and get all sorts of free stuff in perpetuity. Politicians lied, the bankers financed it and the people said "Sign me up for that!" and kept them in power. It could never have happened if the government did not have the fundamental power to redistribute wealth and indebt people without their express permission. The electorate was bribed with their own money! The debt was the difference between what cowardly politicians extracted in taxes and the true cost of all the freebies.

The socialist-redistributionist-collectivist-statist keynsian endgame is here. It will not be pretty. We have all jumped off a 100 story building and Greece is just the first to hit the ground as we congratulate ourselves on being so much smarter. America is just 40 stories behind.

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 03:28 | 1801396 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Cue "LetThemEatRand" to chime in and accuse you of being "unfair" and "heartless" for speaking the Truth!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 20:37 | 1800808 caconhma
caconhma's picture

May be I am not bright but, Greece lied, cheat, and didn't work hard and their bankers knew about it and still loaned them money, why somebody else should pay for their bailouts?

I see no reason for to pay so somebody else stupidity, incompetence, theft, and uncontrolled gread!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 22:55 | 1801106 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I agree with you but I think it is more than simple greed. See my post above yours. We all are suffering the same problem and will meet the same fate...without some sort of correction, at least.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:00 | 1800254 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

They had that. It's called Bilderberg.

The groundbreaking advance in global economic governance is happening now.

All world citizens will receive a digital stipend much like crew members on the USS Enterprise.

Materializers shall provide food and drink.

Unless we have a war in which case you may have to report to a Liquidation Station.

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:08 | 1800266 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

I got it figured that MDB is Obama's speechwriter.  MDB generates lots of words but almost no real meaning.  Perfect for a demagogic politician skilled at creating illusions.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 20:42 | 1800822 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

So you're saying the wordcloud for all his posts would be dominated by "WE" and "YES" and "CAN" and "CENTRALLY," among other buzzwords?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:28 | 1800295 falak pema
falak pema's picture

there will be no concerted plan as long as there are US oligarchs who are in total denial...they want to kick the can for here to eternity...i hope you saw the film...it was another age...when the USA had right and might on their side...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:44 | 1800322 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

AMEN brother!

God bless the G-8 ministers, and the countries for which they stand.

I KNOW you all will join me in praying that the Lord just gets out of the way so our wise, and forthright leaders can get on with correcting our mistakes.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:02 | 1800339 english serf
english serf's picture

Thats right mdb, the elite will save us, they love us really

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 19:54 | 1800725 joshua10
joshua10's picture

ROFL!!!!! I'm busting a gut laughing MillionDollar!

 

What Greece and the rest of the insolvent PIIGS countries need to do is follow Iceland's example; vote out the existing criminally degenerate government IMMEDIATELY, select new leaders from within the population IMMEDIATELY, declare a default IMMEDIATELY, and give the banks, and the IMF the middle finger thereby preventing any further defaulted private banking risk to be transfered unto the backs of taxpayers. That is the example to follow. It is the only way to make the bankers pay for their reckless behavior and to inject some needed discipline into the banking system.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:43 | 1800148 GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

"The results show that debt can be brought to just above 120 percent of GDP by end-2020 if 50 percent discounts are applied...." 

 

And what currency will this debt down to 120% of GDP be in? Euro2s, Euro3s, Worldos, Universos, olives, figs, basebal cards...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:05 | 1800071 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture
  1. Greece, the eurolubetube that keeps on reaming.
Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:15 | 1800207 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

'Going Greek' used to mean taking it up the poop shoot..... I guess it still does. 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 03:02 | 1801381 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

"Strictly confidential"... BITCHEZ!

On it! Thankx from China!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:11 | 1799964 Mohan
Mohan's picture

To me that is Greek in plain English. Thanks.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:14 | 1799968 Mongo
Mongo's picture

In plain engwish... EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE GREEK so ZE GERMAINS CAN BAIL ZEM OUT

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:16 | 1799980 john39
john39's picture

but isn't obvious yet that the goal is to do the same thing to Germans and Americans that has been done to greeks?  we all will owe our first born children to the satanic cabal before too long...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:58 | 1800068 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I think of us as more paganical than satanical. Call it "theater" if that makes you feel better. I have noted only dogs come and lie down next to our fires.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:31 | 1800299 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

a swift's euphenism =`s "a modest proposal", how delicious,... but has the cabal lost its appetite for a pound of flesh?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:46 | 1800409 daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

In plainer English: Everybody is about to get Greeked with a broomstick. The fundamentals never work until they work, and then it is owch my aching arse.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:15 | 1799978 OneEyedJack
OneEyedJack's picture

This has gotten utterly ridiculous

 

Just how deep are they willing to let this rabbit hole go.

There is a bottom

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:46 | 1800051 fonestar
fonestar's picture

for as long as they want I guess, shorting and now selling or closing your accounts are strictly verboten!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:35 | 1800134 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

They've Just discovered a whole new layer of lunacy:

Eurozone leaders seek foreign money to boost bail-out fund

Discussions have turned to using the €440bn (£383bn) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as bulk insurance for another fund backed by private investors.

This second "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) would be used to buy new and existing eurozone sovereign debt, with a particular focus on Spain and Italy. The EFSF would provide blanket first-loss protection to the second fund, which the authorities hope could top €2 trillion.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8843333/Eurozone-leaders-seek-foreign-money-to-boost-bail-out-fund.html

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:36 | 1800138 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

The plan is to so saturate the media with this constant blabber that no-one gives a fuck what happens, just as long as we don't have to hear about it.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:25 | 1800289 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"expect Ireland and Portugal, followed shortly by Italy and Spain, to pull a Greece and report worse economic data"

The way this whole CF is playing out, I expect to wake up spooning with Taylor Swift before THAT would ever happen.

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=taylor+swift&hl=en&sa=X&rlz=1T4GGHP_enUS4...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:32 | 1800303 Believable-Hypocrite
Believable-Hypocrite's picture

"There is a bottom."

Yes they will dig till they reach China.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 20:46 | 1800828 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Nuh-uh.  It's a wormhole....

And not the kind dug by fish-bait.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:20 | 1799985 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

total Greek debt/GDP, which has just been hiked from 149% to 186% by 2013

How bad do things have to be to allow this to happen?  People aren't retards.  There must be something cataclysmic around the corner.  It must be just insurmountably bad....  Maybe there will be a new Dark Age, or worse yet, cats sleeping with dogs.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:04 | 1800084 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

If cats are laying with dogs, then surely, pigs can fly! I'm looking forward to that for some time now.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:54 | 1800421 daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

[There must be something cataclysmic around the corner.  It must be just insurmountably bad....  Maybe there will be a new Dark Age, or worse yet, cats sleeping with dogs.]

 

What's coming is a 10 to 20 year rolling global civil war as the sheep slowly learn they are being buggered. The collosal debt means indentured servitude for your children and younger generations, there is no way that can be left standing. That which cannot be, cannot be. Here is a whole book on what this civil war will look like. http://www.futurnamics.com/civilwar.php Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party are just the canaries in the gold mine. (pun intended)

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:22 | 1799990 HellZero
HellZero's picture

The Germans have been revising down their economic future at a rate of knots this week (one already suggesting they were already in recession)

Perhaps they will beat the rest to it and be the first in with the begging cup

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:37 | 1800141 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Germany will return to the Mark shortly... Problem solved for Germany, but the rest of the EU is screwed... This is the only way out for Germany and the longer they wait the worse the train wreck.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:26 | 1799997 spz_trader
spz_trader's picture

Its insanity of an "exponential" dimension as only the Troika could dream up, and foolishly convince others the mirage is indeed reality. I dont believe the market will play along much beyond the "sucker's" rally. 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:28 | 1800001 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

well, well, well,

here it comes.... 

collaspse....hope you guys are ready....from what im hearing, it should start this week...

we shall see...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 20:47 | 1800832 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Jenga!

 

Again!

 

Maybe!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:29 | 1800003 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

GDP = C + I + G + NX

Decrease G => decrease GDP => debt/GDP increases.

The real ridiculousness is that in addition to demands that G be cut, they also demand debt be increased. How anyone who comes out publicly and states that such a plan will suceed in preventing default/bondholders from suffering massive losses and is not laughed at is beyond me. Nevermind that there are zero examples in history where such a plan has succeeded. 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:22 | 1800114 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You still don't understand swaps.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:29 | 1800127 falak pema
falak pema's picture

thats the price for marrying a beautiful wife...you don't want to swap! You never learn swaps until she waps you with a divorce for cheating, ie : selling her short without a derivative play to insure her future or her immediate satisfaction. 

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 05:05 | 1801451 FinHits
FinHits's picture

Classic!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:30 | 1800005 larynx
larynx's picture

There is one easy and very ovious solution:

Give the EFSF a banking license and allow them to sell CDS on EURO-Bonds as well as the Bonds themselves!

See? Fixed!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:31 | 1800009 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

Not to worry... :o)

 

Eurozone leaders seek foreign money to boost bail-out fund

4:37PM BST 22 Oct 2011

Telegraph

Aldrick and Waterfield in Brussels 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8843333/Eurozone-leaders-seek-foreign-money-to-boost-bail-out-fund.html

Eurozone leaders are hoping to tap the world's largest sovereign wealth funds for hundreds of billions of pounds under revised plans to boost the single currency area's bail-out scheme. Discussions have turned to using the €440bn (£383bn) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as bulk insurance for another fund backed by private investors.

 

This second "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) would be used to buy new and existing eurozone sovereign debt, with a particular focus on Spain and Italy.

= = = = = 

Which "sovereign wealth fund" anywhere on earth would even lend a dime to euroland??

 

 

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:35 | 1800023 loudoungroup
loudoungroup's picture

Ha!  A new meaning to Enron shell games.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:53 | 1800064 malikai
malikai's picture

Some Arabs might, if the Europeans sell them parking meters. We did it in Chicago with tremendous success. Just think of all the things that can be sold off to secure those loans. I'm sure it will all work out swimingly.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:33 | 1800132 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am sure Saudi Arabia will be willing to take the Eiffel Tower and the Louvre as collateral on a nice investment in the ESFS SPV.   Why didn't Sarkozy think of this first?  

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:47 | 1800161 malikai
malikai's picture

I'm hoping to buy German roads. I've got some great plans for a few houses and hotels. I can't wait for this sale. I just landed on Greek oil terminals and bought one. Does anyone want to trade or buy?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:37 | 1800013 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

We can fix this with my 999 plan

To make an apples to oranges comparison, we will print our way out of this and apples and oranges will be 999 cents each. 

Then we can use my ring fence approach and isolate the PIIGS with not only an electrified ring fence but we will also build a moat with alligators to make sure no debt can escape to our borders.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:34 | 1800018 love
love's picture

Debt to what GDP ... Current or projected. they are asking 700,000 (35 million pro rata if in America ) people to take a 40% pay cut and be put on stand by to be sacked within the next 12 months there will be very little ecconomic activity going throught the books.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:34 | 1800019 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The end is "riots in Paris." nothing less...nothing more either.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:04 | 1800193 Steroid
Steroid's picture

France had a lot of revolutions in the XVIIIth and XIXth century.

I think they have a lot to catch up!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:36 | 1800024 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Weekend Current Events Quiz:

In International Finance, the term Merkosy often refers to:

A -  A chimpanzee act

B -  Two of the dumbest white critters in Christendom

C -  Failed leaders of fucked up welfare states

D -  All of the above

   As usual, extra credit for sarcasm and/or biting irony.

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:37 | 1800028 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Thank you for the summary. I went to public schools an dneed very simple explanations.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:40 | 1800031 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture

off topic again..

Watch: The Great Silver Debate

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:43 | 1800037 Banksters
Banksters's picture

The dwarf has worn his black tie.   He must be pounding his child size fist into pig face Merkel right now.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:02 | 1800082 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"dwarfs have rights..including the right to be tossed. I will defend your right Mr Dwarf! I will defend you!"

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:05 | 1800089 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Its not the tossing that matters its the where and the how.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 20:55 | 1800851 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Or who:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxWTwB0NdNo

 

Thanks, Keiser!

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:46 | 1800154 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Thank goodness Naked Shorts have been banned in Europe.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:04 | 1800044 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

I have a question. Ive had it for a long time and can't seem to solve it.

So i pose it to those brighter then i.

Why (not how ) does the the world work as well as it does today?. Yes just today as the world works; for today.

 

I've been asking myself this question for years.

All the accounting, logic, reason, law and humanity says the world should not work. But so far so good says the man as he passes each window after he stepped off the ledge of the 89th floor.

"The world will work untill it stops cold. Like the heart in the man who walks off the leadge of the 98th floor window."

Is that it. The answer. Finish the game.

There must be a first to call the bluff, or cash'n the chips at the table.

Something or someone must give, call it a night.

Who, what, and where will this moment be?

I dont know; but this day the world works, so; so far so good as we pass this window i will wave to those working inside.

PS: If you could make the coment font the same size as the origanal text that would be nice.  The smaller font  of the comment window increase the typos.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:05 | 1800087 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"it's not the fall but the landing" I'm told. Well...looks like an overloaded A380 with three engines out and you're the "man in the control tower." Go easy on 'em.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:19 | 1800107 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

LOL. If it was as clean a landing as a rock from space i wouldn't be half as worried as i am. An, a380 is a good aircraft even with two elephents as pilots. Its the landing without fuel in the ocean.  "as the man in the control tower."  You know they are out of fuel and are not going to make the run way, the pilots have hope that they can cost on in.

Its your call.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 21:00 | 1800857 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Is the A380 really Pan Am flight 103, or Iran Air flight 655?  The navy can take care of it.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:02 | 1800048 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

A stealth fog bank is heading west at approximately 8.7 knots. As needy financial institutes seek new revenue streams to offset present EU liabilities, OWS (Obama's Welfare State) commotion will ripen new wealth transfer opportunities.

The Whinety Whine Poorcent

Must watch and ask yourself, is this not all planned? Turn up the volume!

 

Ministry - The Land Of Rape And Honey

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:49 | 1800054 broke433
broke433's picture

I don't get how their projections skyrocket until 2013 and just goes down afterwards, shouldn't it keep going up?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:06 | 1800092 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Same logic as that used by our USA govt in their plan to "tackle the deficit"....i.e. total hogwash.

 

European governments will be dragged kicking and screaming to the solution - default by all the pigs and bankruptcy for their banking system. 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:22 | 1800285 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

The PTB hope to kick the can until a miracle happens and everything is ok.  That's the whole plan.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:52 | 1800059 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

INFINITE QE AND OTHER ASSET BUOYING ACRONYMS = DOW 30,000

Y U NO WANT DOW 30,000?

YOU MUST HATE AMERICA.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:49 | 1800164 traditionalfunds
traditionalfunds's picture

Akashic,

 

Your posts on FDIC receivership came up under Reggie's latest article.

 

Question for you on FDIC receivership. If BofA declares bankruptcy prior to FDIC implementing receivership then don't bankruptcy laws supercede FDIC regs? 

Thus dervivative counterparties would go to the front ofthe line.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:08 | 1800270 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

Thus, if BOA declares Bankruptcy we know what game has been played.

If they go into FDIC receivership without declaring bankruptcy, we'll

have to suspect they made the FDIC an offer they couldn't refuse.

 

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:55 | 1800066 broke433
broke433's picture

Me no understand, didn't Soros say that Europe has to have a common treasury and a fiscal union in order for the Euro to survive and isn't Soros always right?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:09 | 1800096 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Maybe if they started with a Supreme Court and good old "up yours phucker" from The Nine and they'd get their mojo back.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 12:58 | 1800069 winning
winning's picture

this is enough to drive someone to drink ... dont worry the can will be kicked .. 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:53 | 1800170 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Right now they're playing hacky sack.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:00 | 1800076 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

The goal isn't to solve the problem---which at this point is a mathematical impossibility----it's to postpone as long as possible the implosion of the system that has made a few people very powerful.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:10 | 1800099 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You forgot to add "for now."

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:00 | 1800078 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

Countries around the world are taking on more debt without any fruitful attempts to curb their expenditur­es. This has resulted in a much more fragile and artificial­ly held up financial system which is on a much shaky ground than it was in 2008. In 2008 companies failed due to excessive leverage and debt and now countries are likely to default because they took on the same bad debt on themselves­. The borrowing costs or bond yields for these countries are again at record highs for the year due to their deteriorat­ing financial condition.

A single currency for an economy as strong as Germany on one hand and relatively weaker economies like Greece or Ireland on the other is not sustainabl­e in the long run. The idea of the stronger countries in the Euro zone to keep on bailing out the weaker ones repeatedly will be a difficult one to sell to the citizens of the economical­ly stronger countries. Their is no practical way to save the Euro, the only thing that the politician­s can do is to lavishly spend tax payers money towards bailouts which creates a much bigger crises a few months down the line but does not solve anything.

http://www­.marketora­cle.co.uk/­Article245­81.html

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:14 | 1800102 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Does it matter really? What's the difference for the average guy when your country is 150% in debt and 200% in debt? None.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:18 | 1800105 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Well, it does matter when the 'average guy' is rapidly becoming someone who's on food stamps.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:19 | 1800106 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

100% of all countries who have surpassed 90% debt/GDP have collapsed.

Fact.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:23 | 1800116 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

gasp... you mean this situation is NOT sustainable?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:27 | 1800124 machineh
machineh's picture

NOT FACT.

The source for this number is Reinhart and Rogoff. Maybe you should read it.

They said 90% is the level at which debtors typically get in trouble. But in the past, both the US and Britain peaked above 100% of GDP without defaulting. FACT.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:35 | 1800136 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

The US did default and the UK did defult, in gold.

Now they can't even pay nothing without loseing everything.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:50 | 1800248 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Japan was doing fine at 126% But they made / produced shit unlike US.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:40 | 1800401 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

They are indebted to themselves.

It makes them stronger.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:56 | 1800331 PJPony
PJPony's picture

Did it take long?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:37 | 1800393 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Welcome to the Western World.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:24 | 1800117 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the culpable price of guilty procrastination...the government leaders caught with their pants down...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:26 | 1800122 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I don't get how their projections skyrocket until 2013 and just goes down afterwards, shouldn't it keep going up?

 

Under MMT, yes it should. Regretfully, a new game changer is in town. They are in an accelerated mode to implement the two tiered society on a global scale. Many experts think they have developed the ultimate recipe to make this new world a success. I wonder if the MSM will cover the roundup of these think tank individuals? I'll bet they beg & plead just like Gaddafi did. Funny how history always repeats itself.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:47 | 1800158 Matrix R Us
Matrix R Us's picture

They can obviously grow their way out of all this debt, no problem at all.

/s

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:54 | 1800174 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

1987 Was Last Year When Wages Exceeded Inflation (Social Security Payroll Data) - And It's Getting Worse!

Look at my chart!!!! We ARE Greece!

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 13:59 | 1800180 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The fog of war...

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie” - Jean Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurozone finance ministers.

Is it Serious?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:03 | 1800192 golfrattt
golfrattt's picture

Ok, so they take the hits and get debt to GDP down to 60%..

How do you get them to keep it going up from THERE??

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:06 | 1800197 Silver FoxNJ
Silver FoxNJ's picture

Ireland will be first in line to restructure its debt, they would be crazy not to!! This is the last thing they need to help them on their way back from the brink. Remember, their tax rate is 12.5% for corporations and they took a lot of painful steps already , way before anyone else in the Euro zone.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:14 | 1800205 howswave5workin...
howswave5workingforyou's picture

Ireland already looking to transfer some of debt issued to recapitalise banks into EFSF/ESM. Makes sense. For the above, you're assuming the GDP trajectory is correct. Who knows maybe it will be higher in 2020. Anyone who feels they can forecast out there needs their head examined. If they can get Greeks to pay taxes all these numbers will be wrong.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:14 | 1800206 howswave5workin...
howswave5workingforyou's picture

Ireland already looking to transfer some of debt issued to recapitalise banks into EFSF/ESM. Makes sense. For the above, you're assuming the GDP trajectory is correct. Who knows maybe it will be higher in 2020. Anyone who feels they can forecast out there needs their head examined. If they can get Greeks to pay taxes all these numbers will be wrong.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 14:27 | 1800219 Silver FoxNJ
Silver FoxNJ's picture

I wasn't trying to forcast but simple stating that Ireland has made great strides in correcting the imbalances, private and public, while stilling having a great tax system to attract global corporations. Also, they are not falling into complete chaos on the streets like Greece.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:05 | 1800264 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"Blue light special". Does that mean I should sell my gold now.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:09 | 1800272 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

the tragicomediy of greece has absolutely nothing to do with economics - keynesian or otherwise....the drama of greece is all about subjugation, enslavement, and occupation....

greece is to become a vassal state of the banksters who see its strategic position as great advantage....the economy is as close to an outhouse as you can get without actually being in one. the government is more corrupt than richard nixon's white house.....greece is to be enslaved - the banksters will have their way unless the people burn them....

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:12 | 1800276 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Let them eat yoghurt.

 

The Spartans used to be pretty bad a-s.

 

Maybe it's time to go back to their roots.

 

Reneg and default. Look at Iceland. It's the only global market that has stood a snowball's chance in hell this year until the hopium fumes have once again overwhelmed any shred of common sense.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:18 | 1800280 Jets
Jets's picture

Greece's problem is not Keynesianism, it's the Euro, if it could devalued like Iceland it won't be facing the problem it's facing now, so stop this non-sense about Keynes, it says nothing about adopting a currency which you have no control over and issueing debt with it. That's what the nonsensical thing is here, not Keynes.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:21 | 1800281 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

50% haircuts?

What a joke. There won't be any haircuts. Bankers never take haircuts.

It'll be silent behind-the-scene 50% principal payoff ... from American taxpayers of course.

There's no problem in the EZ, Bernanke will print all the money they need, $2 trillion, $3 trillion, whatever, no problem.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:20 | 1800283 DutchR
DutchR's picture

The Dutch are having a parliamentary debate on this issue, the last time they held on on a saturday was, wait for it, WW1.

I guess they think it;s serious :roll eyes:

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:31 | 1800300 Jets
Jets's picture

Aslo, you negelected to mention that one of the reason for the growing debt/DGP ratio is because of AUSTERITY, cut gov't spending in time of a recession only makes it worse, which is exactly what Keynes says. But the problem with Greece is it doesn't have control over the Euro, it can't devalue to make it easier to pay back the debt and make Greek goods cheaper compared to others. You may say it's because of Keynes that got Greece in this mess to begin with, but that's just not true. Greece got into a spending binge because it was able to borrow money at the rate Germany was paying after it joined the Euro, that's not Keynes' fault is it?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:33 | 1800304 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

This was funny from reuters today...

One source who said broad agreement was reached on the need to boost bank capital by 100 billion euros added that key details, such as when this should proceed and who should pay, remained unresolved

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/revised-troika-forecast-sees-total-greek-debt-gdp-peaking-186-here-what-happens-next

So this guy walks into a bar...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 19:14 | 1800629 s2man
s2man's picture

that's priceless.

All in favor of me being a millionaire say aye.  Motion passed.  Now when will this happen and who will give me the money?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:51 | 1800328 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

an episodic travesty___it is spoken that a procrastinator only hastens his death, but, only on borrowed time,... be it tomorrow's morrow, whilst thou is still but of the walking dead, who's eulogy was that of yesterdays' long past 

just musing about tyler, this story is in the final chapter one hopes

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 15:56 | 1800332 duckhook
duckhook's picture

I am going to radiacally simplify the situation.

Many countries have borrowed far too much,Much of this debt is held in about 25 of the largest European  banks.There are a large amount of credit default swaps written and bought on this debt.Europe is at the best entering into a low growth period with increasing demands by ageing baby boomers.The US,Great britain and Japan are also encountering demands by their ageing population and these three all have lareg amounts of debt currently.China sells a lot to Europe and the US and is consequently concerned about their largest export markets growing very slowly at best.The Federal Reserve,true to REAL values wants to make sure that the biggest US banks do not renege on any creditor obligations.

The banks because of their political power in thier respective countries want their countries to bail them out of the foreign debt that they hold.Some of the countries  in turn want to create the charade of a pan Eurpean financial agency.But this is just a charade as it comes down to the fact that any obligations of a pan european agency are just obligations of the individual countries which have  agreed to make contributions.Some have also called for an IMF contribution.The US which contributes about %20 of the total   and would have to borrow this money or make some sort of gurantees.Nonethless more debt for the US

The idea behind a pan european bank is that interest rates would be lowered closer to that of Germany and that it would buy time.But during the next 10 years things are probably not going to get a whole lot better;in fact with their ageing populations it will probably be worse for all of the western industrialiized countries and Japan

So any rational person who can add 1+1 =2 and not 1+1=5,will come to the conclusion that much of the debt can not be paid off.It will either be inflated way or defaulted upon.The hope by the FEd is that they will be able to create a small of inflation and lowering the stadard of living slowly.This policy will just not work in the Us or in Europe as the debt is just too large.At rates of infaltion of around 5-10%,it might just work,but would inevitably result in a quicker decline in the standard of living for the average AmericanAt higher reates of inflation >%10,it would work ,but the probable result would be the the overthrow of the government .this overthrow of the goverenment  is exactly what is occurring in Greece and will eventuall spread to other countries.If the countries absorb the debt held by the banks through a pan european agency ,then France and even possible germany will join the ranks of countries having massive social and political trouble in a few years.

The bottom line is that there is no gentle way out of the current situation,outside of quick,~5% real growth.If the banks remain in control and are bailed out then ,it will be the major countries in Europe which undergo social.  upheaval.if there is an actual writeoff of European debt without any pan European agency being involved,all of the major banks will be insolevnt and will have to be nationalized.At east in that situation the shareholders and bond holders will lose their investments and pay for investment bankers will pplummet to more realistic levels.Theis will result in a finacial panic,but better that than complete social upheaval.

 

 The western countries can choose their Treatment,either a very painful series of the equivalent of chemo,or the the later more risky treatment of a transplant.  

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:04 | 1800340 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

Things appear to be shaping up nicely at the eurozone emergency summit:

Telegraph

8:30PM BST 22 Oct 2011

"It was grim. The worst mood I have ever seen, a complete mess," said one eurozone finance minister.

A new bombshell hit as a joint report by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that, without a default, the Greek debt crisis alone could swallow the eurozone's entire €440 billion bailout fund - leaving nothing to spare to help the affected banks of Italy, Spain or France

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/8843652/Eurozone-summit-despair-and-backbiting-in-the-corridors-of-power.html


Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:21 | 1800365 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

That chart is reminiscent of the one used to sell stimulus in the US

Paradox of thrift meets the hard unforgiving wall called aggregate insolvency.

More first loss mezz, anyone?

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 16:53 | 1800420 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

 

 

  • Irresponsible creditor extends capital to irresponsible debtor.
  • Irresponsible debtor does not have the ability to repay the capital borrowed as the irresponsible creditor should had known.
  • Irresponsible creditor demands that the irresponsible debtor lives on olives until the amount is generated and repaid.
  • Irresponsible debtor starts to think that repayment of the the amount is simply impossible because it will lead to certain death.
  • Irresponsible creditor insists that it is paramount for the debt to be repaid whatever the cost even if it means that people who should be otherwise uninvolved are forced to contribute financially by being overtaxed, so it demands by those who govern the tax-paying subjects to create a mechanism that transfers tax derived funds to the irresponsible debtor so that he in order is able to repay him.
  • Irresponsible debtor receives yet another amount which has to use for the repayment of the irresponsible creditor, but because the olives that he was forced to live on for such a lengthy period were having constant and violent demonstrations so that he decided to start a special treatment in order to avoid a complete social implosion and decides that he doesn't have to repay the irresponsible creditor back in full.
  • Irresponsible creditor is having a hissy fit and demands that the same taxpayers who contributed financially before should continue to do it so until the total amount is paid back, because not being paid back in full would constitute a mortal sin.
  • Irresponsible debtor is now suffering from a contagious disease which has now spread to others.

 

Outcome:

(delusion of risk-free environment + delusion of a repercussion-free loan) / (time ignoring the problem * time perpetuating the problem)

= Keynesian Creative Destruction

 

Moral Teaching:

Math are like gravity, they both hurt at the end.

 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 17:40 | 1800454 walcott
walcott's picture

I beleive we have no choice but to let the great economic minds of our times like Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, George Soros, John Paulson, Bill Gross, and Warren Buffet along with our great president Barack Obama to just sit down and come up with a plan that just works. Because you know they all truly have our backs and best interests at heart and afterall they know what's best. And they all love the America people so much and especially 99.999% and not to mention their loyalty to America that you know whatever they come up with you'll love it. An unimagainable happiness will rush across the land from all the death through starvation, disease and absolute ahniliation. 

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 18:24 | 1800531 stpioc
stpioc's picture

["In essence Greece will go from having "only" a 133% Debt/GDP ratio to an insane 149% in 2013 before presumably dropping to 144% lower in 2014, still a good 11% higher than currently. Greece just got bailed out so it can get into even more debt! What psychopath of the Keynesian school thinks that this unbelievable trajectory is anything but a complete and utter waste of money"]

Uhhm, this is exactly the opposite of Keynesianism, which is about countercyclical policy (even a cave zerocrat could understand..) What happens in Greece is that policy is strongly pro-cyclical. And it ain't working.

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 19:16 | 1800635 s2man
s2man's picture

Who are all these people, who know all the answers, on the weekend?  I'm coming back on monday...

Sat, 10/22/2011 - 20:22 | 1800772 clagr
clagr's picture

The solution(s) is(are) not to give Greece any more money. Use that money to recapitalize the banks owning a big slug of Greek debt. Sure the shareholders will get diluted, but less for those who were more prudent, and a lot more for those not so. 

Let Greece out of the EU and let it default (again!) and quit this charade. Giving the money to Greece is a waste and you will still have to bail out the banks when they default later.

Only once they have no credit will they be able to stand up to the unions and government workers and (non) taxpayers and restore a semblance of reasonable economic order.  [Yada, yada, yada, riot, riot, riot, but finally some sense.]

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 01:11 | 1801306 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 weekly chart shows megaphone wedge and looks bullish.

Market consensus became clearer on Friday so back to the original bullish analysis and SP500 weekly chart reverts to bullish/neutral.

More info:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sun, 10/23/2011 - 07:09 | 1801484 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

To think how strong the German mark and French Franc would have been had they not messed with the euro.  Now, both countries have been made significantly weaker as a result of dumping bad money after bad money into the Euro toilet to bailout country after country, bank after bank.  There again we see "too big to fail" coming to bite them in the arse just as it has bitten the USA in the arse.   With the exception of pegging to the Euro, Switzerland got it right.  Switzerland minds their own business, they retained their CHF, they don't fight wars, they don't believe in one world currency and as a result have one of the strongest currencies on the planet.  All these countries including the USA need to end the idea of monitary meddling all the way from the FED and Treasury up to the concept of the EURO.  Its done nothing but create catastrophic hardship for the rest of the world.  Progressive thinking my arse! 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 00:07 | 1819834 CrashJPM
CrashJPM's picture

http://fertilizermarkets.tumblr.com/

The Troika - Economic Angels or Financial Demons?

 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 00:07 | 1819837 CrashJPM
CrashJPM's picture

Great article on the Troika and Greece debt crisis.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!