Revised Troika Forecast Sees Total Greek Debt-To-GDP Peaking At 186%: Here Is What Happens Next

Tyler Durden's picture

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Mongo's picture

"Strictly confidential"... BITCHEZ!

FinHits's picture

"The results show that debt can be brought to just above 120 percent of GDP by end-2020 if 50 percent discounts are applied. Given still-delayed market access, large scale additional official financing requirements would remain, estimated at some 114 billion (under the market access assumptions used). To get the debt down further would require a larger private sector contribution(for instance, to reduce debt below 110 percent of GDP by 2020 would require a facevalue reduction of at least 60 percent and/or more concessional official sectorfinancing terms). Additional official financing requirements could be reduced to an estimated 109 billion in this instance. Of course, it must be noted that the estimatedcosts to the official sector exclude any contagion-related costs.

"(1) The ECB does not agree with the inclusion of these illustrative scenarios concerning a deeper PSI in this report."


Prepare for the -50% PSI scenario to be announced and the Greece Bailout II total to be EUR 114 billion (What will be Eurozone vs. IMF share?)

I am personally rooting the oh-so-tough -60% PSI discount and EUR 109 billion, as that would maintain the illusion that this was all pre-planned already in July 2011 when the EUR 109 billion was announced and now cleverly maintained.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I believe it’s time to get this economy sorted out once and for all. It’s time we called a G8 meeting, so that world leaders can devise a plan for coordinated and aggressive fiscal policy. And it’s not just up to politicians - central bankers across the world also need to get serious with regards to monetary policy. This crisis is too big for countries to act alone. This economic crisis is not going to be solved without groundbreaking advancements in global economic governance. Together we are stronger, so let’s get together and TAKE ACTION.

Quinvarius's picture

All of your posts read like nonsense.  It is like you have no idea what math is.

macholatte's picture

The arithmetic is irrelevant to anything other than helping to create the illusion that someone actually put some numbers together and wrote a report. The only thing that is important is this:

Alas, as we have reported, having actually done the math, the EFSF plan will also fail. But it will take Europe, the Troika and the market about 16 months to fully comprehend that.

If/when the "markets calm down" and return to "normal" it will be a lot easier for GS and company to off-load the toxic shit onto the sheeple/clients and then the real bailout of the elites will have happened. Just the fees for pulling this off will be serious gas money for the mega yacht crowd. 


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whiskeyjim's picture

What you are describing has a name. It is called TARP.

It results in high unemployment and stagnation because markets can not clear. But it also results in political fortunes, high lawyer and consulting fees, significantly expanded government power, bank rewards and other rent seeking beyond all knowing.

So we have that going for us. Which is nice.

malikai's picture

We must join hands between the conservatives and liberals of the nations of the world under the flag of Soros to bring this crisis to solution. I am with you, brother.

FreedomGuy's picture

How about a different idea. How about we give up central planning. How about we quit indenting the citizenry against their will to fund these grand Keynesian schemes? I know, snowball's chance in hell. So how about a halfway solution? Every central planner who votes for this stupidity has to put up a proportional amount of their own money? If Greek bonds take a 50% haircut, then the planners do too. If the Greeks default, then the genius planners get to rejoin the middle class and poor, too. It would stop this stupidity in a heartbeat.

I am a libertarian but this is true class warfare. It is not the rich vs the poor like the moronic leftists portray. It is the political class versus citizens everywhere. This is exactly how we all become debt serfs to governments and businesses connected to government.

Reptil's picture

agree 100%; it's a silent coup.

Minister Maxime Verhagen here (Netherlands) transferring souverignity without admittance he's doing this. These politicians honestly think that this is going to work in the long run (doing away with political structures and checks and balances for some vague unchecked invisible powerbase in some other part of the continent (Brussels)).
Honestly; if they (EU Commission) have messed up so far, what's the prognosis for them, mending their ways, and dealing with the corruption?
How about this powerbase not having ANY control over the citizenry in the decades following the (inevitable) financial collapse? How about the whole thing turning into chaos at some point? That's what these politicians are aiminig for. They're aiming for 17 Papandreou type failures. Because that is the world they live in themselves.

The european union can ONLY work when there's an equality between commercial and non-commercial (humanitarian) interests. Otherwise it's just figments of megalomaniac imagination and doomed. NO empire ever survived or thrived when it's powerbase became too centralised. Therefore I see a bleak future for europe if the democratic checks and balances are done away with. Just like the USA a federal government with too much power has no feedback from citizens and local business, and will be a terrible incompetent but threatening structure. It will inmediately spawn local (provincial) governement to grow stronger, as every action has a reaction (enlargement of scale, evoces a vacuum in local powerbases). The problem is then, this will lead to a fractured rivalling continent (and economy) and a breakdown in international business after a decade or so.

FreedomGuy's picture

I think you are on the right track. The problem is always centralization of power. It gives the power of gods to a small handful of men who fancy themselves gods. Power corrupts. Let me leverage your idea and consider this: Central planning itself is a form of conceit. Conceit begets arrogance. The arrogant ignore all those feedback mechanisms you mention.

I have a new theory I am exploring. The idea is this: You cannot have a democracy and a powerful central government. It is not just the simple equation that powerful governments by nature usurp freedom. It is more subtle than that. The genius of a weak central government is that it takes away the power of each of us to fiddle with the other. Regulations are written by people who absolutely nothing about what they are regulating...but suppose they do. The other part of the problem is Greece. Politicians lied and said you can retire at 50, have two months of vacation per year and get all sorts of free stuff in perpetuity. Politicians lied, the bankers financed it and the people said "Sign me up for that!" and kept them in power. It could never have happened if the government did not have the fundamental power to redistribute wealth and indebt people without their express permission. The electorate was bribed with their own money! The debt was the difference between what cowardly politicians extracted in taxes and the true cost of all the freebies.

The socialist-redistributionist-collectivist-statist keynsian endgame is here. It will not be pretty. We have all jumped off a 100 story building and Greece is just the first to hit the ground as we congratulate ourselves on being so much smarter. America is just 40 stories behind.

StychoKiller's picture

Cue "LetThemEatRand" to chime in and accuse you of being "unfair" and "heartless" for speaking the Truth!

caconhma's picture

May be I am not bright but, Greece lied, cheat, and didn't work hard and their bankers knew about it and still loaned them money, why somebody else should pay for their bailouts?

I see no reason for to pay so somebody else stupidity, incompetence, theft, and uncontrolled gread!

FreedomGuy's picture

I agree with you but I think it is more than simple greed. See my post above yours. We all are suffering the same problem and will meet the same fate...without some sort of correction, at least.

MobBarley's picture

They had that. It's called Bilderberg.

The groundbreaking advance in global economic governance is happening now.

All world citizens will receive a digital stipend much like crew members on the USS Enterprise.

Materializers shall provide food and drink.

Unless we have a war in which case you may have to report to a Liquidation Station.


ZippyDooDah's picture

I got it figured that MDB is Obama's speechwriter.  MDB generates lots of words but almost no real meaning.  Perfect for a demagogic politician skilled at creating illusions.

UP Forester's picture

So you're saying the wordcloud for all his posts would be dominated by "WE" and "YES" and "CAN" and "CENTRALLY," among other buzzwords?

falak pema's picture

there will be no concerted plan as long as there are US oligarchs who are in total denial...they want to kick the can for here to eternity...i hope you saw the was another age...when the USA had right and might on their side...

Schmuck Raker's picture

AMEN brother!

God bless the G-8 ministers, and the countries for which they stand.

I KNOW you all will join me in praying that the Lord just gets out of the way so our wise, and forthright leaders can get on with correcting our mistakes.

english serf's picture

Thats right mdb, the elite will save us, they love us really

joshua10's picture

ROFL!!!!! I'm busting a gut laughing MillionDollar!


What Greece and the rest of the insolvent PIIGS countries need to do is follow Iceland's example; vote out the existing criminally degenerate government IMMEDIATELY, select new leaders from within the population IMMEDIATELY, declare a default IMMEDIATELY, and give the banks, and the IMF the middle finger thereby preventing any further defaulted private banking risk to be transfered unto the backs of taxpayers. That is the example to follow. It is the only way to make the bankers pay for their reckless behavior and to inject some needed discipline into the banking system.

GtownSLV's picture

"The results show that debt can be brought to just above 120 percent of GDP by end-2020 if 50 percent discounts are applied...." 


And what currency will this debt down to 120% of GDP be in? Euro2s, Euro3s, Worldos, Universos, olives, figs, basebal cards...

The Big Ching-aso's picture
  1. Greece, the eurolubetube that keeps on reaming.
I am more equal than others's picture

'Going Greek' used to mean taking it up the poop shoot..... I guess it still does. 

Carlyle Groupie's picture

"Strictly confidential"... BITCHEZ!

On it! Thankx from China!

Mohan's picture

To me that is Greek in plain English. Thanks.

Mongo's picture


john39's picture

but isn't obvious yet that the goal is to do the same thing to Germans and Americans that has been done to greeks?  we all will owe our first born children to the satanic cabal before too long...

disabledvet's picture

I think of us as more paganical than satanical. Call it "theater" if that makes you feel better. I have noted only dogs come and lie down next to our fires.

earleflorida's picture

a swift's euphenism =`s "a modest proposal", how delicious,... but has the cabal lost its appetite for a pound of flesh?

daxtonbrown's picture

In plainer English: Everybody is about to get Greeked with a broomstick. The fundamentals never work until they work, and then it is owch my aching arse.

OneEyedJack's picture

This has gotten utterly ridiculous


Just how deep are they willing to let this rabbit hole go.

There is a bottom

fonestar's picture

for as long as they want I guess, shorting and now selling or closing your accounts are strictly verboten!

Ethics Gradient's picture

They've Just discovered a whole new layer of lunacy:

Eurozone leaders seek foreign money to boost bail-out fund

Discussions have turned to using the €440bn (£383bn) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as bulk insurance for another fund backed by private investors.

This second "special purpose vehicle" (SPV) would be used to buy new and existing eurozone sovereign debt, with a particular focus on Spain and Italy. The EFSF would provide blanket first-loss protection to the second fund, which the authorities hope could top €2 trillion.


derek_vineyard's picture

The plan is to so saturate the media with this constant blabber that no-one gives a fuck what happens, just as long as we don't have to hear about it.

Manthong's picture

"expect Ireland and Portugal, followed shortly by Italy and Spain, to pull a Greece and report worse economic data"

The way this whole CF is playing out, I expect to wake up spooning with Taylor Swift before THAT would ever happen.

Believable-Hypocrite's picture

"There is a bottom."

Yes they will dig till they reach China.

UP Forester's picture

Nuh-uh.  It's a wormhole....

And not the kind dug by fish-bait.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

total Greek debt/GDP, which has just been hiked from 149% to 186% by 2013

How bad do things have to be to allow this to happen?  People aren't retards.  There must be something cataclysmic around the corner.  It must be just insurmountably bad....  Maybe there will be a new Dark Age, or worse yet, cats sleeping with dogs.

dearth vader's picture

If cats are laying with dogs, then surely, pigs can fly! I'm looking forward to that for some time now.

daxtonbrown's picture

[There must be something cataclysmic around the corner.  It must be just insurmountably bad....  Maybe there will be a new Dark Age, or worse yet, cats sleeping with dogs.]


What's coming is a 10 to 20 year rolling global civil war as the sheep slowly learn they are being buggered. The collosal debt means indentured servitude for your children and younger generations, there is no way that can be left standing. That which cannot be, cannot be. Here is a whole book on what this civil war will look like. Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party are just the canaries in the gold mine. (pun intended)


HellZero's picture

The Germans have been revising down their economic future at a rate of knots this week (one already suggesting they were already in recession)

Perhaps they will beat the rest to it and be the first in with the begging cup

AbelCatalyst's picture

Germany will return to the Mark shortly... Problem solved for Germany, but the rest of the EU is screwed... This is the only way out for Germany and the longer they wait the worse the train wreck.

spz_trader's picture

Its insanity of an "exponential" dimension as only the Troika could dream up, and foolishly convince others the mirage is indeed reality. I dont believe the market will play along much beyond the "sucker's" rally. 

X.inf.capt's picture

well, well, well,

here it comes.... 

collaspse....hope you guys are ready....from what im hearing, it should start this week...

we shall see...

UP Forester's picture






Chuck Bone's picture

GDP = C + I + G + NX

Decrease G => decrease GDP => debt/GDP increases.

The real ridiculousness is that in addition to demands that G be cut, they also demand debt be increased. How anyone who comes out publicly and states that such a plan will suceed in preventing default/bondholders from suffering massive losses and is not laughed at is beyond me. Nevermind that there are zero examples in history where such a plan has succeeded. 

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You still don't understand swaps.

falak pema's picture

thats the price for marrying a beautiful don't want to swap! You never learn swaps until she waps you with a divorce for cheating, ie : selling her short without a derivative play to insure her future or her immediate satisfaction.