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RIP Decoupling: July 2011 - April 2012
It was NOT different this time...
The Citigroup Economic Surprise indicators track how well a broad set of macro-economic indicators is tracking expectations - trending positive if beating and negative if missing. For the first time since July 2011 the US indicator has dropped below Europe's and is rapidly approaching the zero-line at which point we will increasingly expect negative performance in the S&P 500 based on historical relationships between economist/analyst exuberance and the missed expectations this indicator tracks...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Green close today. AAPL going vertical.
Time to load up on those short positions...
A litle late.
Nah, this is the brink of a 20% correction that will dominate for the next month or two.
Perhaps - but they'll go down swinging
"Corrections" these days only last until someone starts spreading the QE3 rumors ... I'm not sure that it's even possible to ever again get a real correction in a system that is as manipulated as ours.
A correction means people decide to sell, and there will be people lower to buy....I dont even think they can pull off a 'correction' in this dead volume market.
Somone always has stocks to sell. It's not like they've chopped down the last tree standing and can't print anymore certs! Insiders have bills to pay, ya know? Would they rather dip into their cash savings or sell free and pretty much worthless paper?
Liquidation is 50% of the trade.
'Someone always has stocks to sell'? Well so what, if theres no one to buy?
this site is sort of bearish since, what, 2007 or so? when even here people expect each bout of market weakness to be aborted and reversed by the fed/ecb etc., when most really, truly intend to buy the fucking dip with a vengeance (guaranteed profits!), it may be time to consider the possibility of a two year or so equity bear market.
when one thinks one has the key to the market, the market changes the lock.
speculators distort price signals leading to mass misallocation of capital.
remember natural gas @ $13, and the billions spent by companies to find, and capture it. Now,nat gas < $2, and a lot of those companies are either bankrupt, or balance sheet zombies. Investors weren't ignorant of the disruption shale gas would introduce in the industry. They chose to follow the easy money provided by speculators.
Speculation pushed natural gas up to $13. Phantom price signal. Billions spent on it. Billions loss.
CFTC can lift margins to curb speculation. But it's subordinate to the speculators, and not a watchdog over them. #why_we_are_f00k_in_the_long_run
You may be right but I wonder if the BATS take down was the start of, or at least or the symptom of a change of state. The type of manipulation we've seen requires uniform alignment of the moneyed players. Civil war may have started with every robot for itself being the new rule. If so the 20% correction talked about above may be an underestimate. The problem with their manipulated rally is it creates unrealistic expectations and puts the market out on a very high limb.
Gap will be filled by tomorrow AM.
Check out last June to see what can happen to the first wave of short positions. Patience Grasshopper, there will be a rebound to short and it is a very, very long way down.
DeadFred, you are right - thanks for the reminder. I have some other stuff to liquidate first to get in position for this....
Dumb enough to believe the governments 9/11 story yet smart enough to offer financial advice...you should change your name from 'Death and Gravity' to 'Enigma'.
Green close today.
Negative. Dow needs to celebrate the anniversary of Titanic with gusto.
But but, the unemployment rate went down..../sarc
So is PCLN
Yes! AAPL will save us!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRWZoCqnDhE
See, those April puts are not out of the money yet!
Ya can't spell "recOVERy" without OVER...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandteleco...
Even my Apple geek brother yesterday at a little Easter brunch was talking bad about Apple and how hes sick of having to get the latest versions of everything in order to use it.
Updates: linuxers, Windowees, and Appolytes.
http://www.jeremyperson.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/computerUpdates.png
And nothing about iSlavery from any Apple tech owner. Not one word of outrage. Not one person saying they aren't going to buy an Apple product because Apple supports slavery.
Steve Jobs knew everything about Foxconn, and did nothing about iSlavery. So Jobs was a slavery supporter.
Where's the NAACP on this? Where's Farrakhan on this? And the ME is full of Muslim slavery. Where's the US black Muslim outrage? We already know our black government leadership don't care. Not a word from any of them.
So, it's OK to have slaves in China, supprted by the US. It's OK to have slaves in the ME, supported by our oil purchases. All the Apple geeks and black communities are OK with it, as long as we don't have slavery here.
F%#$ me!
They are paid slaves.
It is close to the time to short apple. I'm waiting.
Apple has another round of product innovation (new product, not v.3) already priced in, with the expectation that it will successful. And it's Apple TV. They are going where everyone has gone before and everyone has failed. Because they are taking on Amazon, Google, Netflix, Time Warner, Comcast, Movie studios, basically the entire sector from the content providers, to the content distributors, to the content creators, and the content infrastructure. It was a longshot to begin with, and without Jobs I don't see them even coming close.
I do. The old days of catv packages with 2 channels you want & 98 that you don't & have to pay for are going to die. Jobs did it with music & video content more than likely will be more of the same. Those that produce any content worth a hoot, will gladly distribute on ITunes.
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, as did the growth rate on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 126.5 in the week ended March 30 from 125.8 the previous week.
The index's annualized growth rate rose to 1.0 percent from 0.0 percent a week earlier. It was the highest level for the index since August 5 and the highest level for the growth rate since August 12, according to ECRI.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/06/us-economic-growth-gauge-rises...
Growth in what, manure spreading and fascist centrally controlled economy/markets within a depression?
Thats the entire article right there, it doesnt even say anything. Worthless.
The pumpers are out in full force because the ship is going down. Citing "growth" stories across the board. Unfortunately none of it is relevant because this growth achieved with trillions of dollars in funny money has been priced in 2 years ago. Now the world is on another downward spiral and continues the recession that stopped for a few minutes between 2009 and 2011. The patient was awake from coma briefly.
Propagandists of the worst kind. Do some research on the group. They've got bridges to sell to you.
Sheesh...who could have seen that one coming?
Paging Ben Bernanke to the printing press....paging Chairman/Dr Ben Bernanke to the Marriner Eccles printing press
Male Announcer: "Listen Betty, don't start up with your white zone shit again"... "There's just no stopping in a white zone"
Female Announcer: "Oh really Vernon? Why pretend? We both know perfectly well what this is about. You want me to have an abortion!"
Another great example of todays voodoo economics.
According to "volume", not much "conviction" here! Watch for another "strong - low volume" bounce before that BIG ONE!
Lol @ green AAPL.
I can't take this serious anymore.
Every fund and bit of dumb sheeple money panic piling into Apple, lol I say let em.
AAPL = US Treasury*
*Equities ideologue universe
Economy fixed = bankers have free money. Thats all, nothing else matters.
... and much of Europe is still closed today. The margin calls are a coming.
thxz4 covering this so thoroughly and accurately, tyler
i saw a murder of crows in a big tree next to a burm i was following along a vineyard drainage ditch a few afternoons ago and stopped well short of their tree
of course, i immediately thought of zH
they were beautiful, hopping around and cocking their beaks around to keep an eye on ole slewie, who was lighting a little pipe after drinking some cranberry juice
things were pretty quiet as a bird or two would come or go
then i had this thought: how many, like expectations, are missing?
Total stoner dude. Totally...
if you don't ride a bicycle, you auto start now!
Teen unemployment in Europe and US is staggering. The surprise could be lawlessness as 50% of Spain's males are unemployed and 25% of Amercai's teens are unemployed.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/teen-unemployment-a-w...
That's what the camps are for. FEMA now hiring off advertising on pizza boxes.
Doesn't take much to figure out where this is going. Can't trust the miliitary/ex-military/anyone with more than four flashlights. So, hire the stupid.
It feels good to be out of this insane market.
I have no idea when, either 5 minutes, 5 days or 5 weeks, but when AAPL breaks it will be a sight to behold. Nothing, nothing goes straight up indefinitely.
This economic model, based on long-term trends in the stock market, predicts the US will slip back into recession in April/May 2012.
http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/7033