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Risk-Assets Collapse As Knife-Catchers Are Nowhere To Be Found
Unlike yesterday's close, which was led by stocks and not sustained by broad risk assets, today's notable dive in ES was fully backed and supported by credit, commodity, FX carry, rates, and spreads. Volumes dried up as the afternoon progressed as we suspect machines were turned off on the vol regime shifts and real 'value-investing' money was patently absent - now Bill Miller has left the building. HYG underperformed and was first to move as we sold off just after lunch (on what we suspect was the transparency of the USD funding difficulties we discussed). Liquidations, thanks to CME margin moves, did not help and dragged commodities hugely lower - even as the dollar (and EUR) ended almost unchanged from yesterday's afternoon close.
CONTEXT provides a quick-and-dirty way to understand how a broad basket of risk assets is behaving relative to US equity markets. The orange oval from yesterday shows risk in general did not partake of the sell-off but as today wore on, broad risk assets were absolutely in line with the weakness in equities and suggest a far more widespread derisking sentiment.
[UPDATE: The last 2 or 3 minutes saw a modest pullback in TSY yields and the 2s10s30s butterfly which helped CONTEXT pull off the lows and ES quickly scrambled 7pts on heavy volume. ES is still a little expensive to CONTEXT though as ES closed]
Nowhere is that seemingly liquidation-driven angst more evident today than in commodities markets. Silver down almost 9% for the week (though off its intraday lows) as global-growth-indicator Oil has given up all the week's gains to end the day unch on the week (which is what we said was going to have to happen to sustain a correlation-driven sell-off in stocks). The dollar (DXY) is around 1.8% stringer on the week and so Oil now is the only commodity outperforming as Gold decoupled from it this afternoon.
Credit and Equity markets have converged in the short-term - though we note that medium-term HY still infers an S&P around 1180 (given today's cross-asset levels).
Financials did not lead this market lower - though several of the majors had awful days. Materials and Energy were the worst performers and a small late day cover rally helped some look a little better than otherwise.
All-in-all, it appears equity markets are continuing to catch up (at the sector and index level) to credit's perspective and the correlation-monkeys were pulled by this weakness as every risk asset was under pressure. There is still more room for stocks to go to catch up to credit's view of the world and for once, little ex-equities to support it. The clarion call for the ECB's bazooka will be loud this evening.
Charts: Bloomberg
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CRM is like a double-sided razorblade right now
remember this time in 08 is when a vicious countertrend rally on no volume was kicked off...stay thirsty my friends
I will jump back in with a triple bull etf if we fall another five to ten percent, such as BGU.
I still think EWZ is a great long term play, but I would prwfer a better entry point, 55 or so.
Doesn't look like a free-fall collapse to me, more like a controlled demolition.
Those 3x are like pit bulls. When I take 'em for for a walk, I keep 'em on a short leash!
Not for me--shorting that piece of shit straight to e bank! Now I just need the s&p to drop another 5% for my puts....
I caught knives
http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/2011/11/closing-bell-and-positions.html
you wouldn't still be here if you hit 2.4M off of 100k.
If the money was real and you didn't walk the fuck away when i said to, then you're an even bigger fool than you appear to be by passing off a pretend account as real
I wouldn't be here? Where would I be? lol
No "reset positions" crew in sight.
+9,000 JEF
+10,000 MS
Both near the close.
if you continue to trade you are going to eventually revert to the mean.
If you get to 2.4M, you walk away like I said. Look, I was one turn of the wheel away from that stash in 08 and I was trading real money and not pretend. I did not waste my time on ZH when I was up a couple hundred grand in a day. I was busy doing something useful.
Stop fronting, anyhow.
It's not 2.4mm first of all.
I'm not pretend trading.
Sorry for your loss.
....let's pretend I was was pretend trading, my numbers would STILL be winning AND I post EVERY trade.
you got your million game $ from CNBC?
You could have at least gone with the Milton Bradley joke.
on your paper-trade account ..... aren't you getting tired of this spam bob? You know what! Give me 100k in cash and I will make you 20% in a year for real! Interested?
Wait! I've forgotten to give you my website! Is a very sofisticated one ... like yours!!!
I can even manipulate the already raised amount of money! Have a look at it! It's a great deal!
http://socialxperiment.webs.com/apps/donations/
What program is that you're using?
BI was knife catching with
love the 70 point rocket in a minutw
Silver got hit pretty nicely today. Does that have anything to do with JPM's recent adding of stock to the market?
Yep, techneek pointed out quite nicely (+1) that they tripled their registered physical anticipating a lot of physical redemptions and that opex is coming up on a physical delivery month.
Catching that knife and flipping into physical is going to be an interesting exercise for me in the next few weeks. :-)
I found a bullion dealer who went down 1,5€ per Philharmonic 1 ounce coin today!
Just ordered the double of what I otherwise would have for this week. It's early Christmas!
Does Germany also tax silver with VAT? I know that Philharmonics here are about 40% over spot, but still just about the cheapest silver coin you can get.
No comment on the last two minutes?
I'm sure this will be discussed in depth by MSNBC. I mean, they are there to educate us right?
I'm knife catching right now, only in the physical market. Odd that the larger physical market seems to have no effect on the paper market, almost as if prices were being controlled by some non-economical force.
Welcome to Sept./Oct. 2008, take 2: European Collapse
Honestly....is here nobody that will look into these last minute paint-the-tape moves in the indices. Just look at the DJIA spike in the last few minutes of trading....surely it would not be too hard to see who drove the orders?????
Not that it makes too much difference int he long run, but if they want to preserve these markets they have to stop brazen manipulation by the PDs.
piant the tape on the long or short side....these past few months have been great if you have had access to globex....keep it coming...prob adding to my ES longs sunday evening...BTW a bear pennant consolidating at ES 1250 and intraday at and having negative news from Fitch leading to a breakout is beginners trading stuff.....also beginners stuff.....Pull over if you cant handle the speed.
Who would stay short overnite in this rigged game? Notice the closing spike did not get quite to the bottom of the dive spike.
don't go near the markets until ben starts massive new printing..after all the solution to our high debt is more debt. and it is, it's just that all standards of living will drop off the cliff except for a few Fanny and Freddy or solyndra execs,congress..and bankster NWO elites.
welcome to the gray ages history sucks.
really, why go in especially if he starts printing! the end game is here, one world government, one world bank! nothing poison tipped pitchforks can't fix!
Whew... I almost thought I'd have to bail out and pull the cord...
Institutional accounts have been painting the ES & Dow tape at the close for decades. What's the big deal now?
Gold and silver are manipulated markets. So who doesn't know this?
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Vegas, hotforex not available to U.S. residents?
Gold and silver just following their predicted patterns:
Gold:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34947&hilit=+sil...
Silver:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=34947&hilit=+sil...
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hil...
Nothing to worry about.
Did CME raise margin requirements? Tyler, I am missing what you are reffereing to.
Europe liquidity
Equity guys are "Fed up". Seriously, buying strike, give me a stable 7-8% dividend yield or more. Give me 7 times P/E and half replacement cost of assets or less, and those assets should reprice inflation very well like say Tobacco leaves processing facilities. Then yes, otherwise, in cash (that is in Gold). Gold moves yes, up down ok , whatever. Since it seems it will take years to get to 7 Times normalized Earnings on S&P, Gold is my new cash. will move out of it when the equity is at real historical bottom valuation with inflation making the front page of newsweek... Tired of this money pumping that never let the market finally bottom... Only good stuff really cheap in Asia at this point...
The rigging is fraying sooner and sooner. The market's reaction to news stimulus and political pronouncements is getting shorter-lived.
Oil is not going down.
http://www.ustream.tv/theother99
New York March Live!
Occupy Wall Street!
History being made!
Police will be bashing skulls soon!
It's 4:53 pm. Do you know where your non margin cash is?
Financial assets got Sandusky'd - look for more of the same for the next 20-30 years -
And traders are hedging with oil selling EUR/equities etc. The ECB can all in, which they won't, oil tips 100+...that is the EU doomsday trade right here. Merkel has to stand pat, otherwise Germany will be sucked into the EZ hole.
The only thing the ECB is doing in market (apart from covert bond buying) is under writing EUR/forwards etc. The EUR sitting on 1.34. Everyone knows that if the 1.34 is taken out the EUR will capitulate
Greece or Italy or both will restructure debt and defaults within days.
I don't know about anyone else but I have really been impressed at how well a lot of these metal mining companies have performed while the metals climbed and even more impressed with how they have outperformed the metals and the market on days like today.To be specific by "really been impressed" I mean they are total pieces of shit and by "more impressed" I mean I hate myself for ever owning them.
Hey did TD have an article on this BoA deal? Where BoA used internal funds shifting to put taxpayers on the hook for potential $75T in dirivatives losses. Yes I said 75Trillion.
http://www.dvorak.org/blog/2011/11/17/wow-bank-of-america-dangerous-deri...
Even a blind squirel gets a nut every now and then. For once, CNBS has a truthful article. Why Europe's Central Bank May End Up Printing Money . My only beef with the article is that is assumes deflation is bad.
too late.
ot
NBCNewYork
Chopper 4 just told by NYPD to move -- they are closing airspace over protests. #OWS #N17Bring in the drones, bring in the drones
NYPD now has control of air space? is that even in the possible?
Then there is no need for the FAA after all.
That is pathetic.
I think the OWS people are brave souls.
Cops don't need any authority over the airspace to tell someone to move.
Mayor Bloomberg doesn't want witnesses -- especially ones with high def cameras. Police arrested journalists last night as they tried to get to Zucotti Park to witness the Police Crackdown. Police even body slammed then arrested a NYC Councilman as he was trying to get to the park. The invisible heavy hand has been lowered -- Kaboomberg style.
In relatewd news, NYC to be renamed Nazi Yark City.
Favorite headline of the day on CNBC Mobile:
"US Banks could benefit from Europe's Crisis" - Bove
I'm not sure if Dick Bove is retarded or crazy...
He's cratarded
Ow, my silver. :(
you're still quite fortunate to be sitting on some :)
The big one has arrived.
in keeping with the sovereign debt and banking crisis in europa today, everything sucked
likewise in the US: everything sucked
in asia and the far east, everything sucked
context, credit, equity, commodities, materials, energy: sucked
i just hope the volume wasn't disapponting
eur/chf & gbp/usd Slewie. Buy the dips. I have another good one , but I need confirmation. I'm currently flat, until Europe.
Perhaps the markets are reverting to Technicals , again? Tape bombs are passe'...
I like 4.5% into the year end. Hint Hint? Bueller, Bueller?
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Vote up!1
Vote down!-1
Short crude oil. The world is swiming in oil as everything else. Its elevated price is just a scam. The probability of war is zero. Uncle Sam can´t go to war against Iran because both its flanks are insecure. The left flank goes to the Straits of Hormuz and if that is closed this means crude price $300 and Stalingrad for US forces in Iraq and other US vassal states in the gulf. As for the right flank that supply line goes through Pakistan. It´s shaky enough as it is.
Well, that's if you are assuming that the big "O" isn't working toward a soft dictatorship for him in the US..
Scenario: O or Israel attacks Iran, Iran attacks Saudi; oil goes bye-bye; economy tanks; he take emergency powers. The next day we realize we elected Hugo Chavez. And Obama gets the high oil prices he wanted, and his 'green' zombies make tons of money along with the folks.
Sarcastic? Yes. But what did Obama actually mean when he said he was going to 'fundamentally change the US?'
Equities break down as expected. Pullbacks will be opportunities to postion for the longer term. The markets are confirming the move today with CL and GC moving lower with the SPX http://bit.ly/tVzkz6