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Risk Assets Deteriorating Rapidly On Europe's SNAFU
Since the news broke that there is no 27-nation agreement, risk markets are showing strains. Perhaps a little surprising is the lack of total panic in the EURUSD (50pips or so) as ES (the e-mini S&P 500) has now dropped almost 1% from its after-hours peak. Broadly speaking risk is off across the major markets with US TSYs rallying, the TSY curve flattening, and commodities rolling over (oil under $98) but it is AUD and the carry pairs that are driving ES down as much as anything else.
CONTEXT (the broad risk basket) is biasing to further deterioration in ES led by TSYs and FX carry but all the factors are weaker. ES is holding at the day's lows and as a reminder at the cliff's edge on the 11/30 rip-fest overnight action - feeling fragile up here.
Commodities are rolling over rapidly [Update: Gold and Silver just jerked down a little more than normal].
Charts: Bloomberg
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"I heard her pray the night the Euro died ... brother what a night it really was ...."
This is what happens when Fractional Reserve Bankers attempt to remove the 'risk' portion of the risk/reward scale that's historically been a necessary and efficiency-inducing component in the process of investing or speculating.
The longer period of time they persuade the masses that risk has been suppressed, and the more extensive means they utilize to try and sell their bullshit, the worse the inevitable outcome.
Here are some appropriate acronyms for Europeans to adopt as part of their lexicon if the EU elite attempt to go that extra, insane mile to try and force the square peg into the pressurized round hole and keep the EU compressed together (i.e. have the ECB print enough fiat toilet paper to monetize PIIGS+France debt, let alone ongoing deficit spending).
BOHICA
FUBAR
SNAFU
SUSFU
The Bernank broke the markets.
Double down on The Bernank strategy and it will all fall apart faster than one can utter "transitory."
If I can be schitzoid for a moment... gold and silver may tank along with everything else, or they may rally... it's a shame there is no price discovery for gold and silver, but I heard you can pick some up @ $1709 & $31.76 respectively...
I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news
But she just smiled and turned away..
Too bad she didn't have GOLDEN hair..
When markets are this broken, with as much leverage, malinvestnent and distortions as the merry central banksters have encouraged, baby gets thrown out with the bath water until deleveraging gets everything back to equilibrium.
Not going to happen. Everything will need to be exploded, so it can be re-built. It is such a clear direction, no "solution" is being sought, clearly. Just more football playing all around.
Price discovery is a joke, price dominates value....
Once we start to see finger pointing as to whose "fault" all this is, we will see public anger directed there, in classical hegelean dialectic fashion.
And it's not China, it's Russia.
The bull will always fight the bear, not the Dragon.
ORI
/the-plan/
Wanna know what's really awesome?
How The New York Times literally just completely revised their entire headline on the EU Meeting in the last 18 minutes from 'European Union Meeting on Debt Crisis Ends In Glum Mood' - to -
Most European Leaders Agree to Work on Fiscal TreatyI couldn't make this shit up if I was George Lucas.
They must have gotten a call from the Ministry of Truth & Propaganda reminding them to play ball:
Hah! The HFT Bot Management Department is now probably as powerful as the Plunge Protection team.
ORI
That's the way the fight will begin, but in the end the dragon will be engaged in the conflict, as well.
Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.
Don't mean nothing. Nothing, honey. If it ain't free.
I feel my love, my Rock and Roll,
coming back to me.
Freedom isn't nothing left to lose, it's everything you freely build you freely keep (ie. untaxed)
the alternative of course is slavery and the State ...my aren't they doing a good job at the mo
Can someone pull and post the EURCBS3M-icap?
I can't get it to come up...
the politicos-bwankers surely won't let this blow-up before Christmas ...will they?!!
One of these days, as I routinely find myself doing, I'm going to wake up and say, "I picked the wrong morning to stop drinking".
And I will finally have been proven to be correct.
So just don't ever stop drinking. Problem solved.
~Frank sinatra
Tyler is almost giddy with excitement. end game ya all.
You can't drink dollars, euros or gold.
..but you can drink cannabis tea.
If you like to play guitar, sing, paint, run with dogs and horses and dance with stars, and such.
OMG I LUV DANCING WITH THE STARS!!!!!1!1!11
well played sir,
but I speak of celestial masses of light
SO WHAT DO YOU ALL SAY THE NEXT TIME OBAMA SPEAKS - WE HAVE A SHOT FOR EACH TIME HE TELLS US HOW "FAIR" HE WILL MAKE THE WORLD.
1 SHOT FOR OBAMA = "FAIR"
2 SHOTS FOR ECB = DAILY "BOND PURCHASES"
1 BOTTLE FOR EU = DAY PRIOR TO "NEXT SUMMIT"
IT HAS BEEN 0 DAYS SINCE MY LAST DRINK...........
Looks like I picked the wrong week to give up glue sniffing!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeI5ke0BENw
got spice?
No but the hauler is waiting to be lifted out. (thump thump thump thump)
Yep...weeks of rumors causing gap up opens [not rallies], followed by denials, more lies, and more HFT ramping...do not a healthy market make. "Snafu"would be a tad understated. I might have gone with the more dramatic "clusterfuck," myself. As well, last night's use of "shit show" really hit the spot.
What a complete clusterfuck, zero credibility market...and of course, the bankers are at the heart of it all again.
Good grief [and by that I mean when the fuck is this nation simply going to wake up and drain every single dollar they have out of Blight on America bank?]
Talking about draining bank accounts, Corzine testified that one of the largest shareholders (Owners) of MF Global is Fidelity (and other like institutions) in which my IRA resides. Need to move it elsewhere fast.
Not only that but Fidelity settles with National Financial Services LLC which engages in re-hypothoclusterfucation
Zoweee! Time to take the penalty and/or loan against the 201K and jack it outta there..... Yikes! The incestuousness of it all!
Corzine's dick is in everyone's mouth at Fidelity, aka Fiddle-latio.... Spit or swallow, bitches?
It's true. All through October and November gains mostly made on overnight, low volume jack ups. It was painful and embarrasing to explain that, "no honey we are not cashing in on this rally." I guess I'm happiest when the market goes sideways. Then I'm not missing out on big gains but at the same time the world's not ending either. Apparently Churchill said that when all other avenues have been exhausted, you can count on America to do the right thing. Hopefully he was right.
I think it's a wonderful market. I went short last week, hedged it once, doubled down once and took 1/2 off; then covered the rest today for a profit.
It's a wonderful market. An honor and a gift and a piece of good fortune to be allowed to make clean money online.
just the tip...I promise
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmW-ScmGRMA
Just the tip?
That's what she said
What a great name Bob.
In fairness that's really all there is. I cant hit the bottom of a can of tuna...but I can scrap the sides.
Give 'em the tip and they'll want the whole shaft.
AAARGH. RISK OF WHAT?! The situation gets worse with each passing hour.
US Treasuries rallying? The USA is in worse shape than the Eurozone. I thought markets were supposed to be "forward-looking."
THESE MARKETS NEED AN ENEMA!
Europe's deathbed demographics mean their sovereign debts(and entitlements, pensions etc) are far less likely to be paid than the apparently worse debt levels (in % of present GDP terms) in the USA.
Let's say the haircut level for Europe will be 75%, versus say 30% here(all that municipal debt, stupid pensions, and a lot of real estate debt).
These markets need a heavy and regular dosing of great grandma's honey and vinegar mixture.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4156051,00.html
30 supersonic cruise missles (anti ship) delivered to syria....
That has to be the lamest launch I have ever seen. Lame, lame, lame!! Come on man vector that shit.
We will all be doing a lot of praying before this is over.
Gold and silver are on sale and now is a very good time to get out of
every paper trade and into physical PMs.
Keep yer powder dry, Greek.... don't pull the trigger till you see the white corpses of the Euro, floating this way, from the other side of the pond! Double bottom @ 1530 is my target to pull the ripcord on the shiny,
euro will be stoped at 1.32 with more rumors.
No need to panic. BDM will save us all in the morning but lending his ink to ECB
One day the 1.32 Euro level will be broken along with those betting for the Euro. RIP Euro
The "Silver" Will Rise Again!
Keep playing their game, BTFD in PM.
Part 8 - The Gold Rush Currency Wars
I thought you got 5 years. Didn't you get 5 years?
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/08/politics/siga-technologies-hhs-contract/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Is tha Santa Clause rally here yet?
Why would gold/silver sell off on this? You would think that folks would flee to safety as the Euro is compromised - are people really that foolish as to flock to the dollar?!
Paper gold and silver. Anything with potential counterparty risk is selling off. Trust noone.
That's the truth truth! Sad day when a flight to safety means not playing paper games anymore. Everyone is getting out of the pool because this time it's not a Baby Ruth.
The long dollar trade is logical as the Euro breaks. The selling of silver and gold is a liquidity issue, as well as an inverse reaction to the dollar. There should be some good "buying opportunities" ahead on the PMs, and I will be in there taking advantage of those, myself.
The JP Morg and HSBC short SLV and GLD in the ETF market the short causes a sell off which is fueled by fears of counterparty risks which causes it to cascade lower, on the dip JP Morg and HSBC then buy back in for profits in fiat. While this is happening with Gold and silver prices falling those who would normally seek refuge in commodities instead flee to Dollars keeping those funds in play and at risk.
Just rememeber the Golden rule of PM's buy the dips ignore the paper Market price, in a global currency meltdown Pm's are a bargain at any price. Remember if you don't have it in your hot little hands then you don't have it. Or as the old school folks used to say possesion is 9/10's of the Law.
You missed the Santa Clause rally. It is over.
Peter Schiff at his fiesty best dressing down some( EXPERTS) or as my buddy used to call them (Drips under pressure)...
http://heavenbounf.blogspot.com/2011/12/peter-schiff-on-cnbc-120711.html
Gold went straight down from 1750 to 1710 in an instant. My question is what causes this. Is it one trader? One computer program? Can one seller truly move a market this large in such a quick burst of selling? It is so strange when these take downs occur, and it always seems to happen when there is bad news. I would love to know what moves these markets so quickly.
It seems like a coordinated takedown to me. What is odd is that whenver risk goes up, gold goes down. If gold reacted appropriately it would go up. Then there would be a big move into gold and as people realized it was a risk off investment. I've been waiting for this decoupling and it never seems to come. It will though. It's just a matter of time.
May be due to liquidity crunches, as some have said.
Simple, gold, or anything else for that matter is only worth what the next person is willing AND able to pay for it.
a couple months ago, jpm sold 250 million ozs of paper silver, in one minute, in the aftermarket
Which is obvious price surpression. Why wouldn't you sell 250 million throughout the trading day/week? Allow you to dump at the best possible price. No they sell all at once to cause a spike down taking less money on contracts then they would other wise.
they buy those contracts back, at a lower price, as well as cover some prior shorts. then they are in better shape, to continue the smaller scale strategic shorting, to paint the chart. I suspect, these big players, are selling large volume naked contracts, to each other, for the sole purpose, of price suppression, just a form of derivative.
when I buy something I get my best price by beating them down - they will trash it to buy it and exchange what is going to be worthless for something that has allways been regarded as a store of wealth.
you only get one bite at this sweet oportunity
The Central Banks throw gold overboard (see earlier today) to give good optics - but optics gets dicey when your ballast goes - do you feel it lads down here in the galley shackled to an oar? There's not enough hands up there on deck and way too many crossed lines they've rigged- the sails be luffing soon and then she'll heel over in this tempest - I thinks if we get up on deck we'll find nobody there - we've been left to drift in a misbegotten sea till we scuttle on some shoal in the dead of night. Gold or lead for ballast won't matter, only a few will make it ashore. Grog all around.
kaaaaaBOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMM!
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND
The insanity of the market thinking that gold and silver are ``risk assets``. Ridiculous. Silver and gold are SAFE ASSETS.
You know what are risk assets? Fiat currency and treasuries from bankrupt countries.
The market is INSANE.
It actually makes complete sense.
Paper PMs are subject to counterparty risk of the worse kind - "where the fuck is my money/gold/silver"
Entirely logical that in times of counterparty stress it sells off like everything else subject to dollar denominated margin calls.
The Santa Clause rally has run into a glitch this year. The Elf union has gone on strike and the reindeer have taken humanitarian work complaints to the UN affairs department. Anonymous sources report, Santa Claus has been issued multiple WTO infractions on transporting gifts without proper documentation and/or payment of government transfer fees.
really f*cking tight...the autobots are just grinding Asian markets...frustrating for entries. The big question is for en 2011 trades is will everyone go all in short? There is aloty of money on the sides. Which might happen since the juice mchines ala CB's may not be injecting fresh liquidity into holiday markets.
although ECB nut just opened his mouth and sent a HFT buy signal.
Those ain't autobots, they're Decepticons!
The Nikkei is happy again.
http://youtu.be/yG7utjxtkJA
/ES spiking. 10 point bounce so far. What the fuck.....
Drifted off and my head hit the keyboard, my bad.
check back in two hrs or less. the market is dry. HFTs playing these meltups and downs. ECB cans the liquidty pumps to Euroland, the non EURO countries like the UK don't want to be played by Germany and France = FUBAR. If we get more selling prior to the santa rally hopes, then this market will go neg into 2012
The market will give up on the EZ
More journal entries for the IMF.
Er...why is gold a "risk asset"? Remind me again. Perverse...
Because gold is worthless if nobody wants it.
Just like your opinion.
You're confusing facts with opinions again.
You, sir, need to form the Jon Nadler fan club, and become its charter member. If you don't know who he is, you can find your spiritual father at Kitco.com
Anything is worthless if nobody wants it.
HFTs are gaming the market on EU risk on/off news headline trades. This market is looking more and more likely to sell into 2012.
AND ... futures are up. Haha.
"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
i picked the wrong day to quit smoking crystal methamphetamine
I wuld like to believe that this festival of absolute worship to the gods of shit is over but I know better. Somehow some way some rumor of epic defacation will give us another 10% rally off the back of nothing. Europe imploding has been seen as great news because it means Bernanke would need to print on a a scale to make all other QEs look sane. Humans don't control the markets and they have been built fr the expliit purpose of generating revenue without the production of value. How do you fight against that? Every movie with the line,"WHY WON'T YOU JUST DIE!!!" comes to mind.
ADR, should be ADD you can't type worth a shit.
EU spin machine going full bore. It's 5AM in Europe and yet we have Draghi quoted as saying
“It’s a very good outcome for euro area members and it’s going to be the basis for a good fiscal compact and more disciplined economic policy in euro area countries,” Draghi told reporters in Brussels. “It came to conclusions which would have to be fleshed out more in the coming days and implemented.”
Asian markets supposedly came off lows because of this Draghi statement. Sarkozy and Merkel must have woken him up and pleaded with him to say nice things to cover up for the Summit implosion and fan the faint hope that Draghi will print them out of the shitstorm.
once people get some coffee in their system and clear the cobwebs, they'll see right through that bullshit...I hope.
Problem is that markets get their coffee but then take massive doses of Hopium. I keep waiting for the markets to call "BULLSHIT" and call the game but instead the markets keep giving these buttheads a mulligan.
ha the asx200 flash crashed for the 2nd time as HFTs pushed through late sell orders
These markets are simply not rational, the system is rigged! TPTB are out to decimate all in their paths so it's better to watch from the sidelines...
watching from the sidelines isnt going to be safe either.....we will get steamrolled just like Sean Payton did when he blew out his knee coaching the Saints on the sidelines
I don't know about you people, but I'm tired. This just never seems to end. A hospice nurse would have used a pillow by now. Ever see that Bud Light commercial when the asshole dies and goes into a room full of Bud Light? He then opens one at a time finding them each empty, pauses, then askes himself "wait a second, where am I." I feel like that guy.
I think those were milk cartons, not beer bottles
Be careful to the routine rumors.
Now I lay me down to sleep,
I pray the Lord the EU keep,
And if they die before I wake,
I pray the Lord my risk to take.
Amen.
I am and have been a stacker even lately. But moves like today that we all saw makes me think of the Wizard of Oz when I think it was the tin man that said to the lion holding on to his tail on the mountain, I hope your tail holds out.
Well thats how I feel. I hope my tail holds out.
These banksters can sure kick a can a long time, down a long road.
War is the tool through which the remaining Constitutional restraints on government and rights of the people will be destroyed. War will be the gateway through which total statism in any of its forms (fascism, socialism, communism) will be imposed upon the United States. They will rally the people’s patriotism, and give the laws Orwellian sounding names like the “Patriot Acts”, and “Freedom Laws” and cries of “America First,” but these acts will be anti-patriotic, anti-freedom, and anti-American. At the core of all these activities will be one purpose –- to impose ever increasing control over the citizens, marching toward total statism. They will suspend due process and Constitutional restrictions proclaiming “extraordinary times” require extraordinary measures. At first they will only be used against a few select atrocious and most heinous individuals with unfamiliar appearance, customs and beliefs. Initially, it will simply be a matter of degree, but the precedent is now set. Extraordinary measures solely for extraordinary individuals, but slowly and then more rapidly the extraordinary will become the ordinary until such measures can apply to anyone. They will deride anyone who opposes these Orwellian acts as dangerously naïve, as pacifists, as isolationists, as unpatriotic, as sympathizing with “the enemy” whoever “the enemy” may be at the time, and as un-American. They will make war with vague, ever changing goals and objectives. They will make war on elusive, obscure enemies by proclaiming wars against “subversives” or “guerillas” or “militias” or “revolutionaries” or “aggressors” or “terrorists” or whatever ambiguous name they can imagine so that the “enemies” will always be elusive, never eliminated or fully defeated. There will always be more “enemies.” War will be perpetual, lasting years or even decades. War will be the final mechanism that destroys America from within; and the people will proudly cheer and defend and support the dismantling of their rights and destruction of their Constitutional Republic, all out of supposed “necessity” to support “the war.”
-- Unknown
"Moody's downgrades BNP Paribas's long-term ratings to Aa3"
- It has began.
I guess I picked the wrong day to stop snorting dilithium crystals.
You can always bake it into brownies.
The only thing we have to do to fix EVERYTHING is separate physical wealth from the paper fantasy. But of course, no one wants to do that - because it requires hard work and honesty to get anywhere.
Humanity is it's own worst enemy.
Read:
http://www.wix.com/andrewcostell3/simple-wealth-book
So now they are working on a treaty within a treaty and plan for yet another summit in March 2012. UK is out along with Hungary and a few others? Do I have this right? Where is the big bazooka? Where is the money coming from? Got...to....priiiint....
Oh..and dowgrades on French banks?
Not sure but things go the opposite. This is no short but long,.
future green..we are saved?
well 1% down to 1% up whats the difference, just another day.......crazy
Please disperse, nothing to see here.
Are we looking at the same markets? The Dow is up over 1% on my charts!
DavidC
should be updated with new info this am futures exploding. i BOUGHT BEFORE THE CLOSE ON PURPOSE AND SOME STOPS HIT BY TWO CENTS. CHART THE WEEKLY THE CLOSE YESTERDAY IS RIGHT IN THE BASE WEEKLY A GOOD ENTRY POINT, BUT ALSO BY SPEED LINE WE AREN'T AT THE BOTTM.