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On Risk Concerns And Over-Optimism
The Citi Economic Surprise indices have been useful indicators for finding short-term turning points in risk assets for many years. While not perfect, the mean-reverting nature is very instructive as to economist over- or under-optimism through the cycle. A recent SocGen strategy report noted that since the US rating downgrade, the majority of US macro data have beaten consensus - driving the surprise index up to cycle highs (from dramatically bad cycle lows). It appears that the US economic surprise indicator has peaked again and economists are currently upgrading their forecasts. We noted earlier, that markets are getting very sensitive to misses and this turn in 'economic data relative to over-optimistic forecasts' performance creates significant room for disappointment and implicitly, equity underperformance.
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bears are demoralized, posting rate is really low today.
Demoralized is the correct word. yes. Distraught too....oh and broke.
Demoralized? Please. Bears are salivating, waiting for the Euro dominoes to fall.
Now THIS is demoralized: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Video-of-marriage-proposal-gone-wrong-at-UCLA-ba?urn=ncaab-wp7324
whenever you doubt yourself as to the outlook of the world, link to this and call me in the morning.......and do not use this while driving or operating heavy machinery..........
http://usdebtclock.org/
So let us say you have pancreatic cancer....
If you woke up today, you would declare yourself totally healthy because
you hadn't died yet?
The Euro is screwed, the USA will be at -20 trillion by the time the presidential elections are over and done, Wall Street can now steal clients money and get away with it.
Oh. And the Federal Reserve, ECB and IMF run the world.
I'm glad your totally healthy, bro. Let your Bull balls go wild.
PS. TRUE bears are preparing for the collapse, market fluctuations have no bearing on the fact that every fiat currency has failed.
hey, you talkin to me?
Nope.
youre lucky...this time.......
I do fear the day I lose Divine Favor.
Glad it's not today.
That was the best thing to ever have happened to that guy. He just does not know it yet.
'Bears are demoralized....oh and broke too'...
Due to what, the stellar uber-bullish performance of equities which now sit at last January avg and at overall 1999 equity market levels?
You perma-bulls are brainless giddy dopes.
I am just fkin around. I will hold these short positions until the mothere of all crashes happens and the world is turned upside down. Or at least until I can get a small correction and get the fk out at my breakeven price. Whichever comes first.
Well I understand that, frankly Im not touching anything to do with this market insanity, maybe not ever again!
yup
wrs is getting junked up top! L0L!!!
remember sheepie, a crisis is not a crisis when everyone is waiting for it..........only when these brainless giddy dopes pile on their worshippers, only when they forget about that massive gaping crack in the foundation under their temple of Hope, only then will a crisis become a crisis............
the only way to make money in this market is to be neutral and think like an algo. the charts have been showing bear patterns just as frequently as bull patterns, hence the volatility. if you stick to just one side of the trade you will be creamed. or you can just keep your money in gold and sleep easy while awaiting the inevitable USD currency devaluation/loss of reserve currency status/hyperinflation.
Yes, demoralized! However, math is still math, 1 + 1 still equals 2, and it is impossible to change this fact. Math will prevail. It always does. It may not be today or tomorrow, but the longer Math is ignored the harder the reversion to reality. You can only live in la-la land for so long - I give the Status Quo and Central Planners a lot of credit for making it run this far, but it will not last...
Math is the gravity of reality - an unseen, all-powerful force that cannot be manipulated (as much at TPTB think they can defy it!!).
Should have said LawsOfPhysics
A nice FrAA-nce downgrade would do the trick.
SP please downgrade France, dont waste my precious time....
hugo,
A deal has been struck between the EU and S&P involving Iran's sweet nectar, you didn't know?
More oil embargo......for iran´s black nectar....
typical threats by Eurolanders politicians....
For me each time the oil in euros gets above 80 its bearish for equities,
oil 103.21
EURUSD 1.2940
Oil in Euros 79.76...tic tac..
And thats all markets are now, a series of levers that get pushed or pulled depending on what something else is doing, and equities really havent done much at all in 2 years other than dubious claims by expert rearview mirror traders.
ooo-la-la
Even Rosie was a bit + on US this morning
Everyone bullish, I bet all of em including Rosie are covering longs. Everyones a sellsider today, yea right, look at the VOLUME! LOL 30% below last Jan...theres no one buying anything.
oh please this is just more scare tactics from ZH, market just keeps going up and not much to stop it except negative articles...just BUY
Yeah, the market will keep going up. Just like housing prices should always only increase. That housing assumption certainly turned out well as a market principle.
Except housing has no PPT.
And the market isn't even going up. Might want to take a closer look. Last I checked, it closed 2011 pretty much right where it started. The PPT has done a good job of keeping it levitated, but as another wise poster already pointed out, the math will win eventually.
the market isn't going up - but - if you are a HFT bot for your firm - retail sees the up 5% days, buys at the end of the day. the next two days bots sells back at down 2%. you can't beat them. maybe you can. give it a shot. the overall appearance for average public is market is going up. people remember the huge bursts up (first day of this year for example) and forget the slow grind down.
lol scare tactics...¡¡¡
u will c when france is downgraded and the EFSF in AA = EUROSTOXX -10%
'Market just keeps on goin up'....
I see another who buys into the lame media illusion. Equity markets are level with last January, and a wash since 1999.
Gee you bulls are easily impressed. Not as impressed as I am with all my 1999 $200 gold ounces though.
agreed. i got burnt so bad 2 days before qe1. they WILL not let the markets go down. bennie will print and print and print. the VIX should be 10% higher right now - but everybody learned as soon as they see shorts going in - ramp to infinity. markets are too rigged to be in unless you can really afford to lose principal.
everything is fine in the world,,,,,,,
Bears should be salivating. We're at one of those peaks now.
Absolutley. Maybe a little more upside, but not much. I'm just trying to decide which puts to buy.
Here is a leading indicator for you. My wife is a waitress and is telling me that the use of credit cards vs. cash or debit cards has reached an all-time high at the 2 restaurants where she works. Most days/nights are approaching 100% credit card usage and the restaurants require the waitresses to kick back 3% of their tips to the restaurant to cover the credit card fees. The restaurants have to get cash every day from the bank to cover video poker winnings and pay the waitresses tips as even the video poker gamblers use credit cards to play the machines!
That's a very astute observation. So we're back to overextending our credit cards. Banks haven't recovered from the last credit bubble yet. Nor has employment.
and then when they have no credit left? It appears to me that the media incites people at least here in NC. Running news stories on Verizon one time $2 fee.....and then David Bridal throwing out used dresses and inciting people some more....yet no one seems concerned about the bailout we did for BoA for millions or the trillions in debt the US is in. Nor is there any response to the NDAA.
What will this people be like when they really get hungry?
A country of starving consumers, out of credit.
Tell your wife that it is her responsibility as a patriotic American to turn in everyone who uses cash to the DHS.
http://rt.com/news/terrorism-credit-cards-government-613/
Lordy...
Go long COF with leverage, and jack boots, too.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2011/10/wacky-signs-from-occupy-wall-street/
Nice, everybody spy on your neighbors, co-workers, acquaintances, all in the name of safety and national security. Welcome to East Germany.
In italy max cash amount will be limited @ Eur 1000. Make up ur mind.
Italian banks are in default ALL
So what's new . The US government and bankers have been doing the same for the last decade. All part of the Ponzi
Code, scan, trade and profit. A new wave of computer enabled insider trading. Posted on January 4, 2012 by maxkeiser| Leave a commentA new Wall St. scam
Rumors are circulating about a new Wall St. research service scam that goes like this…
Research reports are written with both recommendations and coded phraseology that enables pre-market manipulation.
The way it works – a report that gives recommendations also contains coded phraseology that programs trading bots on the exchange that ‘read’ the report and make various trades. Certain word, symbol and number combinations in the report are picked up by the bots who put on the trades based on the coded info.
In the following research report – the report spells out a recommendation – that will make the trades put on as the result of the previous report profitable.
Let’s say in January, the research says “We love tech. and big pharma” but hidden in the report is coded info that was picked up by trading bots who went long Co. X.
The following report recommends Co. X, making those pre-trades profitable (while containing new coded messages for the trading bots in anticipation of the next report).
This ‘research’ service is sold to traders for a hefty fee. It’s inside info that is virtually impossible to detect available to a firm’s best clients on a regular basis.
Simply buy the service and enable your computer software that ‘reads’ the research to pick up the code that will trigger what trades will be profitable when the next report is published.
Python loves to parse phrases. And every linux box on the planet comes with python that you can't remove from the system. Every mac has it too. And the free software foundation spends 8 tmes more effort on python than it does on making any of the other crap work.
That there is any link at all between data and market prices [in any market] should be debunked for all time given the blatant data manipulation of 2011 and the high flying HFT's trading ES and some other markets. Only economists looking for a job would try and credibly make the argument for fundamental analysis.
http://vegasxau.blosgspot.com
Why does this headline remind me of Greenspan....?
The USA government has taught me well on how to spend money. Thanks.
For all the salivating over the coming big bull run, or big bear plunge...I bet both are wrong.
Now youve just got a centrally planned controlled break even market.
For all of last years market BS, how did it end? About break-even. Same as 2012 will be, if it all makes it that far and nukes arent flying by then.
2 plastic bags of groceries, no meat, $75, I damn near left them on the counter.
Say goodbye to snacks!
Liquorball sandwiches arent bad. TPB - Liquorball Sandwiches (Lost Interview) - YouTube
Stopped at the watering hole on the way home...3 beers and a shot $16
Can't say I have every done that Sheep.
China doesnt like these oil prices...watch out CHINA H-Shares and Hang Seng
CHINA H below 10.000 will have next support roundy 9.380-9.400
SHIBOR, SHIBOR...ufff
Big trouble in Big China brewin. Looks to me like the equity market lever is going to have to get pulled back, oil too high.
The Chinese can't afford higher fuel prices and will stop the driving euphoria before it even got started. It will take everything else down with it.
i think everyone has an "inner Toad" insane about driving a motorcar which perhaps should be but never can be stopped
Santa came later than expected and he lingered for a while longer.
It's going to be one helluva hangover!
Hormuz Party...
So the Iranians say that any sanction increase will lead to a closure of the Hormuz Straight. Ok...
Now Obama enacts new sanctions, and Europe rushes to do the same... This cuts from 5% of the world oil supply. So prices will go up... Is it the right time for high prices? Clearly no.
One word: force Iran to do something silly, like shutting Hormuz, to strike.
And WTI still at 103.3 ? What a fucking joke...
timmy is going to Asia, everything will be okay
When exhuberant irrationality starts to fade, you know what replaces it?
Name it... NAME IT!
Doesn't look like that much correlation between the peaks, though the troughs seem to stick together... sometimes the S&P leads the charge upwards, sometimes it is the citi US economic surprise index. It is strange how the economic surprise index sort of just bounced around between June 09 and Jan 11, almost as both the market and the economists couldn't make up their mind. I assume that won't happen this time. Macro Business Superblog in Australia chose this as the chart of the day, for some unknown reason.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/chart-of-the-day-risky-economists/