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Risk. Not. On.

Tyler Durden's picture





 

After a brief spike higher (just to flush all those stops) in front of Draghi's 'dis-believe' press conference this morning, markets plunged. Some wanted more but algos tickled us up to VWAP into the close once again though we note that once there - volume and average trade size surged, allowing those bigger momo players a better exit than mere mortals. Equities and broad risk assets stayed in very close sync all day with cross asset class correlation surging systemically, VIX rose and fell on the day ending down 1.4 vols at 17.5%  (after touching 19.25% after the European close) - but notably VIX is now more back in line with equity/credit implied values. The USD ends today up 0.8% on the week, and implicitly commodities tumbled (copper and oil  down 3-3.5% on the week and gold/silver -2%). Treasury yields bounced higher as stocks nibbled back to VWAP into the close but ended down 2-4bps (long-end outperforming). All in all - no capitulation, but a broad based derisking that seemed to benefit from some pre-positioning in protection (and help from the VWAP algos twice). Wil tomorrow's NFP be good enough to be bad or bad enough to be good (high volume and low average trade size suggests few want to position for it too aggressively).

S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) saw two reversions to VWAP (red rectangles) - at Europe close and US close that were accompanied by heavy volume and large block size exits...

 

VIX surprised a few with its 'weakness' today as stocks sold off - but hopefully this will clarify - as it seems the warning we noted a few days ago of pre-emptive positioning was indeed what occurred and likely supported today's market modestly...

 

But broadly speaking risk markets clung together in a non-capitulative manner today - and notably gold (beta-adjusted) underperformed...

 

and across all risk-asset-classes correlation picked up (lower right) and equities tended to cling to risk all day (upper right). Despite some early shenanigans into the European close (upper left), equities stayed true to their rates/vol/credit capital structure. The VIX vs 'fair' equity/credit relationship reverted today (lower left) and it will be interesting to see if today's vol selling (unwinds of hedges) was accompanied by derisking in the underlying or simply a lifting of hedges (we suspect - given the VWAP reversion, high volume, and pick up in average trade size at VWAP that this was real money exits)...

 

Charts:Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Terrible Truth - How many more jobs are gonna be lost thanks to algos? Knight Capital trades with a $1 handle after hours...


 


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Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sneaking suspicion NFP comes in at expectations. I think theyre terrified of big beat or big miss, then they'd have to actually do something.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

it doesn't matter.....markets are pre-positioned for everything to be good news with the report ala the bernank....pure evil genius

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Put your hands in the air...like you just don't care!!

Ain't no party like a QE party - 'cause a QE party don't stop!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 01:36 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

perhaps i'm wrong, but imo the lesson of the second half of '12 is likely to be the impotence of central bankers (professionally).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2086022/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-s...

 

 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

BINGO! 

 

Not too hot, not too cold.  Don't want to QE before the election.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Put/call a little high too, relatively. Probably room for one more hard core ramp job.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, SD1

i saw something earlier about Challenger Job Cuts in:  Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Modestly Lower
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com

apparently, for july, employers are slowing layoff annoucements

Challenger Job Cuts

  • reading:  -44.5%
  • previous: -9.5%

small beat?  L0L!!!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Who's left to layoff?   Which also says if revenue is the current weak point this earnings season, then labor cuts aren't going to help earnings going forward.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 01:31 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

good point, imo.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Geez WTF?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

My guess is 15k below expectations to keep QE on the table and not disturb the markets too much...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment monogratis
monogratis's picture

Unexpectedly, I think we should expect that our expectations are unexpectedly correct, and that we should not expect what we are expecting...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

That would be totally unexpected.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Forget risk, what about reality?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

reality?

 

wake me when it returns

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Law97
Law97's picture

....from your cryogenic chamber...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment monogratis
monogratis's picture

Let's put aside risk and reality, and keep passing the hopium pipe around... we haven't smoked it all yet, right?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 20:15 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

You have to factor that many of those smoking the hopium pipe voted in the geniuses who go us here. They voted them in on on total faith in their ability to deliver on such well defined objectives as hope and change. They voted baed on their faith in these politicians nearly god-like ability to transform the US into a utopia. You know, a place where everyone gets along, the poor never have to pay for anything, everyone's needs are taken care of, and it is all paid for by a gratefull few who only work because they find it fulfiling, and cheerfully pay for it all while working hard and singing along with small forest animals.

People so nieve as to vote for someone on a promise of hope and change aren't going to give up such well founded faith based on something as flimsy as reality. It's going to take a brick hitting them in the head, or hitting their investment accounts, before they stop smoking the pipe.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 01:32 | Link to Comment monogratis
monogratis's picture

If the municipal bankruptcies pick up speed, which they are likely to do, there's going to be a lot of bricks hitting a lot of heads.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 04:12 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

True. But i thought the Bernanke was going to save us with that QE thangamajig.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

get out of equities and bet on a horse instead like Ann Romney

you get $70,000 tax deduction for owning a sport enjoyed by 0.1%

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

"Will tomorrow's NFP be good enough to be bad or bad enough to be good"  that's awesome. 

Thanks Ben, you've truly made it unreal!

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 04:16 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

It will most likely be unexpectely average, which will be neither bullishly bad or bearishly good. And as a result the market will rally, because its Friday and you cant have a down monday without pumping it up Friday. Down Mondays are all the rage these days, you see.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

To summarize my technical analysis...the second chart looks pecularly like the plant from the Rocky Horror Picture Show.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

I saw the same thing!  Really bad day to stop sniffing glue. 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

It's not just Faceplant.  Imagine if the entire market went down instead of up.  The loss of capital gains taxes would be very bad for the administration.  So we have to inflate stocks with freshly printed dollars so people can pay real taxes on the gains.  Yes, it's a lose lose for you.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Hedge funds are taxed at 15%, TBTF banks don't pay much of anything (Bank of America paid no taxes at all) and retail is out.

The only taxes being paid are the poor SOBs that are penalized for early withdrawal on their 401k or IRA...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

...but Benny saved you from paying any tax on your savings account....

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

Let's do the time warp again ...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Little Shop of Horrors?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Good catch.  I've never seen either, just the posters 'n such.  Let's just say they're not my preferred 'genre'...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

awwww... c'mon!

edit:  oops. i put up an old link and it's binTakinDwn...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment Bohm Squad
Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment NoControl
NoControl's picture

................... you mean Little Shop of Horrors

 

and Yes it Does..............

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

"Little Shop of Horrors"  not Rocky.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Overfed
Overfed's picture

"Feed me, Ben!" but....but...."Feed ME!"

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Audry II from "Little Shop of Horrors"

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

SO why does the "market" always hit the VWAP when the markets close?

Other than pure manipulation of course.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment NoControl
NoControl's picture

S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) saw two reversions to VWAP (red rectangles) - at Europe close and US close that were accompanied by heavy volume and large block size exits...

The way I've come to understand it is that there are algos at work that move the price to the VWAP.  The theory might be that price usually reverts to average so they take advantage of that and pocket some $$ in the process.  This can only be done blatantly in a low volume time period since any heavy volume would probably be to the down side and would result in losses.

The side benefit of this price action is that any traders that want to sell a large amount of contacts/shares can wait for one of these algo-driven returns to VWAP and then dump their positions at a higher price and so taking less of a loss (those are the spikes in volume you see circled in the chart).

 

if any of that sounds wrong\incomplete pelease correct me

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment credittrader
credittrader's picture

A simple VWAP example:

A lot of institutional order-fillers (e.g. KCG) will get an order to buy/sell a LARGE block from a buy-side firm (who just got inflows and need to do something for example). The buy-side firm will want the highest price possible if it is selling and lowest price possible if its buying - but expecting to buy at lows and sell at highs of the day is dreaming and so - they judge the brokers' performance using VWAP.

 

Obviously there is 'art' to positioning a LARGE order and so instead of in the 'old days' when an experienced trader would call around and break up the trade, spread it off to people in an attempt to get the best average fill, now this is done algorithmically. How does the buy-side firm know it got a 'good' fill (after all they also have algos that look at market impact - how much would price move if I sold 100k shares, 200k? etc)? Well that's where VWAP comes in - the brokers get paid to fill the orders as 'close' to VWAP as possible and are even incentivized to beat VWAP - so they build algos (the tickler as Tyler puts it for instance).

 

In the case of today - it would appear there were some chunky orders to SELL at the European and US closes - and so the algos use very small orders to 'tickle the bid side up' - show size, take it away, show it, take it away, and once they get it up within a certain sigma of VWAP (where they think they can dump in size without massively moving market again) they will sell the bigger block. This way they are SELLING (for the buy-side firm who wants to sell) at a level that is most beneficial for them and the broker.

 

Look at the EU close and US close today in that chart above - retail gets played with small lots whipping up the bid stack of the ES order book and then flush - size comes in near VWAP and everyone is happy. Of course this is no secret and so the algos are constantly searching for other algos 'tickling' one way or the other to try and front-run the inevitable heavier block move.

 

Hope that helped a bit - VWAP is an entire world of its own...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 21:12 | Link to Comment trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

plus VWAP = statistical mean reversion   so algos "anchor" to that as their dynamic realtime trend reference

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

This was a triumph
I'm making a note here, HUGE SUCCESS
It's hard to overstate my satisfaction

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment steveo77
steveo77's picture

I have had a long bias this last week or so, and that is sure not working so far. HOG short is my only winner.  
 
Those hoping for a strong Fed "statement" of action to buoy markets were certainly disappointed. At least for now. Overall, the "wrong sectors" are leading advances, whereas in a "good advance" the Nasdaq and Russell would lead, they have been weak. See chart at bottom for comparison of all 4. 
 
My slant is upward, with the trepidation of establishing more longs after being whipped out of 4 positions with losses. Indeed long is the "hard trade" here.  
 
Funny how after a few down days the mind can start seeing bearish patterns. JCI and HON for instance..... 
 
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/08/i-have-had-long- bias-this-last-week-or.html

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I'm so sick of losing money with silver. Screw ya ZH for making me buy it in the first place.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Quit playing with paper silver, buy physical.  Average down.  Watch you stack grow.  If the price declines, you still have the same number of oz's.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture
Goldman: "Stay Long Gold"  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-stay-long-gold

 

now look at gold chart...it peaked in sept 2011

 

LET ME SHOW YOU HOW WALL STREET WORKS.....

 

John Paulson Adds to All But Two Gold Company Holdings

2/27/2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2012/02/27/john-paulson-adds-to-al...

 

 

Paulson Said to Tell Clients Gold Fund Will Top Others

2/24/2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-25/paulson-said-to-tell-clients-go...

 

GET IT?????? Hedge funds tell you to buy when they want to sell or have positioned themselves already.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Averaging down is a losers game in everything else but the exception is silver? this is retard logic, if the price declines youll still have the same number of oz's is like saying if you bought 100,000 fb shares and the price goes down you'll still have 100,000's fb shares, its the same backwards logic. silver has been a losing game for a while

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Silver has been a "losing game" only if you are playing for the short term, and have no understanding of the bigger picture and the inevitability of the collapse of the fraudulent and tottering financial system and its associated fiat currencies.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

please thats such a tired line, when the financial system breaks or if, ill buy then, till then stacking silver is moronic... 

i guess the long game is you watch your holdings lose cash daily but keep telling yourself the system is going to implode.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Dollar cost averaging into a store of value is moronic?  I never knew. You're probably right, the short-term view is probably the best.  Why would some retard want to build a hoard of anything when it will be amply available whenever it is needed?  What rubes, these guys.  /sarc

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

when the financial system breaks or if, ill buy then

And with that little gem of blinkered idiocy, you just proved who the moron here actually is.

Do you REALLY think that the world is going to come to a stop for YOUR convenience, and not only broadcast the message "NOW is the time to buy silver!", but actually allow you to do so at some hypothetical most-opportune moment?  When it becomes obvious to sheep such as yourself that the dollar is dying (or already dead) and the financial system is imploding, your silver (and golden) lifeboat will already have long since rowed away from the sinking fiat currency ship (of fools), and your opportunity to act on what will then be obvious to even the last believer in the dying status-quo will have been long since lost.

But by all means, you go ahead and wait for the exact moment when the market officially rings the "BUY SILVER!" bell.  Idiot!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

I haven't lost a penny on my Eagles and bars. And when I wheel them out to my kids in 20 years, I'll say the same thing. Now if I can only remember where I keep putting them.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

You deserve to lose it if you go canoeing in the surf.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 06:03 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I told you and everyone else to buy Physical SIlver bullion, preferably American Silver Eagles.

 

You only buy Low sell high. Price goes up and down, up and down.

 

You wait. when price is at or below your buy point. Never sell or you lose money.

 

I got some silver and am buying more as soon as the capital coming in becomes liquid. Frankly I dont give a damn what it costs.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Stocks are dead

Bill Gross

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Immorality has its hazards.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Bill Gross is dead. -  Neitzche

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

Stocks are dead

Bill Gross

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:46 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Gross went out of his way yesterday to backtrack that statement on CNBC saying in his "personal account" he owned more stocks than bonds.

Can't get air time on CNBC if you're too bearish...

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Oops.  Looks like you had to reboot.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 07:03 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

And it will be buried in roses. Victory has a thousand green fathers while a Orphan has none.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Italy is totally fine:

 

Raising eyebrows, Italy's $182,400 payout to any Italian who wins a gold medal. That's the highest payout in the world.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Stocks are dead. Long live stocks!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment calgal
calgal's picture

Tickle-Me Algo

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

risk is an antiquated notion that pre-dates the emergence of the bernank. bank bonus on bitchez!

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment FranSix
FranSix's picture

Look like the economy and/or the stock market will be thrown under the bus if only to prop up bond markets.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment gettingready8
gettingready8's picture

Whats the name of the dude on CNBC who is on with the blonde hair chick.  they're on mainly in the afternoon time slots.  he is intolerable. 

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Maria?

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

So if it's risk off, what happened to the no-risk PMs?  Don't tell me T-bills are the only no-risk out there.

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Tyler, I took the time to watch the video! I learned more about understanding "HFT" trading in 30 minutes, than any "non-squid", should be allowed to!  That was fantastic!  I'm reposting the thread here, as I think some of the dynamics apply... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/broken-market-chronicles-algos-gone-autose......

Thu, 08/02/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment homer8043
homer8043's picture

What we have to realize is that we no longer have a market, we have a poker game, with machines. What does everyone think will happen next? What does everyone think everyone else think will happen next? And on to three, four, and maybe five levels.

Individual company results are beyond irrelevant except at the extremes. Macro data has an effect but it takes time and is gamed on many levels as explained above.

Tomorrow's NFP number for instance. Who cares what it is. The last four have caused sell offs. Will this on? Does everyone else believe that? Why do they believe that? Do they think everyone else believes that? My guess is it's a third level reaction, i.e., everyone believe's a sell off, but they fade that, then get fooled by the real sell off. The number doesn't matter. Like taking it to a 3rd bet with a bluff.

That's what this market has become. Sheer and utter gambling. With some logic and game theory. If finance and math were involved we'd be 300 points lower minimum.

Fri, 08/03/2012 - 06:05 | Link to Comment HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Onl;y 300?

 

Try 3000+

 

But no. Witness and behold the power of a government who had decided that all be well and hold the market up.

 

The longer they do that and suppress metals, the more time I have to buy and add to my pitiful stack.

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