Rogers: "Volume Is Not Going To Come Back. We've Had A Great 30 Years. That's Finished!"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Jim Rogers is hedging his gold (and silver) positions reflecting that this is normal, following such a tremendous run, and that this is good for the precious metal in the long-run. In his discussion with Maria Bartiromo this afternoon, he notes India's anti-gold 'protectionism' (and its potential balance of payments issues) that are trying to force the hoarding into risky 'productive' assets (as others might say). The immutable commodity maven suggests JPMorgan (and its peers) could be behind the drops in the overall commodity complex as the uncertainty of their positions (and liquidation potential to raise cash as bank examiners begin their forensics) becomes more important. He holds the USD, which he hates; has a number of equity shorts; and is most fearful of banks - specifically admitting he is a serial seller of calls on JPMorgan. His advice, and perhaps Maria should look into it given their ratings recently, is to become a farmer; own farmland; and speculate on agriculture. On the dismal 'ethical' state of our leaders and management, the thoughtful Rogers opines, "You can read world history for decades. There are always people doing things wrong. We have not changed our human nature and we will continue to have scandals and problems" and in a follow-up to CNBC's standard 'money-on-the-sidelines' argument he crushes the money-honey's dreams: "Finance had a great 30 years. That's finished. Now to advance, we have too many people, too many MBAs, too much leverage and too many governments that don't like us". A must-see rebuttal to the 'normal' CNBC hopium with more on China's slowdown, a US recession, Europe and a Greek exit, QE3, and 'tractors'.

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Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:28 | 2425615 nwskii
nwskii's picture

Black Swan Bitchez

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:31 | 2425623 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Here's a 1/2 hour interview with Jim Rogers...taped May 13th: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/05/14/may-13-market-update-featuring-...

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:39 | 2425636 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

We had 125 years of cheap petro. 

 

Peak or Not, $ = poop shoot 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:42 | 2425642 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

so, not buying China anymore then...

guess that didn't work out too well did it?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:47 | 2425785 flacon
flacon's picture

I bought FAZ today, triple short the S&P..... we'll see if that can recoup some of my mining losses in the next few weeks/months. 

 

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:11 | 2425846 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Sorry to say it but Mr. Rogers is a trader and an entertainer. His farming BS is not even funny. He has no clue what farming is all about.

Just because he and Soros have made money being the Rothschild family agents does not mean that he is a genius.  Furthermore, both Rogers and Soros both belong to and promote interests of the Central Banks Oligarchy.

Finally, Rogers forgot to mention that FED still prints fiat US$ as if there is no tomorrow.

 

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:49 | 2425905 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture
  • discussion with Maria Bartiromo.
  • If she doesn't cry he bottom is nowhere near.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:13 | 2425939 Harlequin001
    Harlequin001's picture

    This guy is fucking clueless. So I and others like me should become a farmer on Thursaday, eh, like it's that simple?

    Just put all your investments into something that can be taxed to oblivion and confiscated by the State because it's in the national interest. Just how long does he think it will be before price controls are implemented and your investment goes 'poof'?

    And as for the gold price, since when do corporate investors (primarily banks who are predominently net short) reducing their positions to supposedly improve liquidity result in the gold price going DOWN?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:25 | 2426040 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    One thing he is right about is Gold and India.

    Actually the story si even more interesting than that. 

    Three things have been played in concert to supress Silver and Gold sales in INdia since about July last year.

    And that is keeping the rupee on a stead down-slide since then. Approximately 20% decline vs. the dollar.

    20%. It makes so many things beautiful.

    a) Struggling outsourcers, seeing their overseas revenue drying up show 20% higher earnings due to currency moves. They, as companies are shitty hedgers, ALL of them. SO, weak rupee good for them, and thus us? 

    b) INR/$ at 44, Silver is approximately 50,000 rupees a kilo. Highish. Silver in dollars is at or about 30-33.

    INR/$ currently at 54. Silver is approximately 50,000 rupees a kilo. Silver in dollars is at 28.

     

    Clever? Hardly, just pure manipulation. If someone with chartiing skillz looked at the Rupee/Dollar/Silver complex since about June/July 2011....I think it might be stunning.

    ori

    time-faster-now

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:28 | 2426044 AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    India is a land of scammers.

    How much of that gold is real 24k?

     

    Too many people in India causing world hunger. Time to institute one child policy.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:52 | 2426131 zhandax
    zhandax's picture

    Bingo; I won't go so far as to call him clueless, but if the Morgue is liquidating commodity positions, it is liquidating shorts, not longs.  This does not explain the drop in prices.  To me, this suggests that they, (likely at the behest of the bernank) are doubling up to fuck up on metals (as the saying goes).

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 06:04 | 2426136 Harlequin001
    Harlequin001's picture

    Absolutely. Sounds like a good time to sell gold and load up on silver for the bounce, so to speak...

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:06 | 2426250 Quinvarius
    Quinvarius's picture

    Remember, the CME just tried to enact a global margin raise.  Commodities started diving a month or so before that.  It was cancelled, but there are ways to help Morgan get out of massive paper shorts.  I have no doubt they are being assisted and the paper positions are being transferred to some quasi-government agency or another.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:19 | 2425957 Manthong
    Manthong's picture

    Peak farmers?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:54 | 2426060 AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    But, with an average size farm here worth several million, there is almost no opportunity for new farmers, if they don't come from the family.

    And, the average size farm here cannot support a family: at best it provides some supplemental income. They may break even or make a samll profit on operational costs and provide some home grown food and game for the family. But if you consider the value of land rent, it is a dead loss. As a result, farm children are reluctant to enter the business.

    The large family farms and commercial farms have the capital and expertise to improve their production subsantially, smaller farms are both capital and labor constrained because they must be supported by off farm work.

    Medium sized small farms may be in active production, but they operate on a part time basis. They may provide as much as 20% of family gross income and yet operate at a small profit or even a loss. Despite that they provide substantial income to the community through purchases of farm related equipment and supplies. In that sense they act as a funnel bringing off-farm income into the local community. .... that's around $25,000 a year.

    Finally, there are niche farms that specialize in some small market, or are able to vertically integrate. These can be very profitable, but such niches are notoriously faddish and unstable.

    Also, small farms may sell some timber every 20 years or so and get a big one-time boost in income that makes their overall profit better than it appears on a yearly basis. And, there is, necessarily, an element of land speculation in such operations. Scratch a farmer and you will find a developer.

    As one of my farm neighbors put it, waving his hands up an down, palms up, "Every year I have to weigh my options: $50,000 a year vs $6 million, and get the heck out."

    Neither is production the whole story. Farms pay the same tax as anyone else on their residence and two acres. Plus they pay tax on all the other structures, at residential rates. Then they pay additional tax on the vacant, agricultural, land, but at a lower rate.

    The county provides almost no services to this land so tax on vacant land is like free money to the county, and it is a windfall in lower taxes for all the residentiall citizens. Overall, farms pay twice as much in taxes as they get in services.

     

    let's see a family farm compete against corporate farms with Monsanto's Terminator seeds and their awyers where you lose the right to replant the next year's crop using the same seed.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 04:43 | 2426114 jez
    jez's picture

    A friend of mine, a dairy farmer in the UK for nearly 30 years, sold up a while ago for two reasons: (a) no money in it any more, and (b) the never-ending blizzard of paperwork and legislation from London and from Brussels. He had filing cabinets crammed with thousands and thousands of pages of unreadable but enforceable bullshit, with more arriving all the time, and he was spending more time filling in forms than doing anything else. Finally, he had no enthusiasm left.

     

    I do wonder if Mr Rogers knows anything about farming. He often mentions it, and points out how few young farmers there are now. But rightly or wrongly, I get the impression that he looks at it through a trader's eyes: jump into farming when it's undervalued, jump out again somewhere near the top of the curve. Farming isn't like that. If you jump into it with no experience, you won't last long.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:16 | 2426118 Going Loco
    Going Loco's picture

    Agree with that - my family sold its main farm 40 years ago for exactly the same reason (paperwork and unreadable bullshit government rules) and we have done well out of other activities ever since. But it's not entirely true to say that a trader can't make money out of farmland. When land prices are rising rapidly it's possible to buy and sell, pay the stamp duty land tax (or whatever the local government charges) on acquisition and the CGT (or whatever capital taxes the local government charges on a sale), and the lawyer's charges on acquisition and sale, and the land registration fees, and the agent's fee on sale, and any property taxes and insurance during the period of ownership, and make a profit. But it's a lot harder than trading on a stock exchange and if I were selling and I saw Mr. Rogers coming I'd rub my hands with gleeful anticipation (and get my shearer out and ready). For UK readers - don't forget that farm and forestry land is exempt from Inheritance Tax (subject to certain rules). For that reason I still own some farmland, but really it's just part of my tax planning rather than anything else.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 06:55 | 2426158 youngman
    youngman's picture

    From an Iowa perspective.....land is very expensive now....small family farms..the 160 acres type.....are to small for the new generation tractors and combines...you need 1000 acres plus to make those investments pay off...taxes are cheap....I disagree the state or counties do nothing for them...they take care of the roads...electric...telephone...schools....all subsidized by the city dwellers....and of course the big federal Farm programs...yes you need to be an accountant to fill out the forms...and a pretty savy investor...and they mostly are....the new farmer is college educated...knows business...does not like Wille Nelson....is very political...and is very technical...they are making money know.....but land lease rates are going up.....so is land costs if you are gooing to buy...I just sold 90 acres...to small to farm...I had it leased to my neighbor...for $12,000 an acre.....that is a high price because it is close to a city and someday might have some development potential...but now its just corn....farming is big business...and you need alot of capital to get into it right now.....a bad time I think...where was Mr Bowtie when land was $2000 an acre just a few short years ago....

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 07:28 | 2426197 CPL
    CPL's picture

    It's insane.  Even then, with nature acting as a vicious mistress over the last ten years.  Water at the wrong time, too little when it's needed, well levels are at half what they were 10 years ago. 

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:22 | 2426289 terex
    terex's picture

    Well it might be that JR thinks of somewhat different places... like Russia, Ukraine orThai and Vietnam. Here you find cheap labour and cheap land and pro gov sponsoring (well mby not in Russia). It is likely he knows nothing about the craft, but I guess he knows at least a tiny whiney about demand (just look at the guy, he is 110% sales)...

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:13 | 2425940 Widowmaker
    Widowmaker's picture

    That faggot with a bow tie gets paid to go on shill TV.  Enough said.

    When he addresses fraud inc he might be getting a clue.

    His money is no good.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:56 | 2426066 AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    He moved to Singapore for future prospects and all that while still retaining US citizenship becuase he knows that Chinese military can bomb the entire country into oblivion when SHTF. As much as he is anti-America, he still holds on to that US passport of his so he can get his ass rescued by US military.

     

    what he really meant to say was "I got lucky last 30 years, so don't listen to anything I predict about the future"

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:55 | 2427004 Widowmaker
    Widowmaker's picture

    His money is no still no good and he got no class.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 03:00 | 2426068 Western
    Western's picture

    "Finally, Rogers forgot to mention that FED still prints fiat US$ as if there is no tomorrow."

     

    Did you even watch the interview? Thanks for nullifying your entire post.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 07:27 | 2426194 CPL
    CPL's picture

    You retard.

     

    Put in your stop loss on purchase of ALL x3 Leveraged ETF...and NEVER hold x3 ETF's over night.  EVER. 

     

    BTW.  You are about to lose your shirt.

     

    ..<mutter mutter...keep telling people to stay the fuck out of it...do they listen...no...mutter mutter>

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:05 | 2425704 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    That's pretty close to correct, if inelegant.

    Rogers senses things, but he doesn't really understand oil -- though to his credit he IS aware of the suggestion of scarcity and aligns it with the reality of 7 billion people.  He just doesn't understand the details.

    The rest of his mantras . . . farming . . . they have merit, but that also falls afoul of his not fully understanding the oil situation and what it will do to farming knowledge.  

    Being 100% up to speed on how to farm with tractors and fertilizer isn't too valuable as oil's relentless scarcity asserts itself.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:15 | 2425725 flying dutchmen
    flying dutchmen's picture

    there is a lot of oil out there bitchez..  doubt we will ever see 200 bucks..  Trucks are converting to NG and others to hybrids.  BUT remember everyone was talking about running out of Natural Gas in 2007........... That sure as hell did not happened.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:38 | 2425768 FEDbuster
    FEDbuster's picture

    We will see $200/barrel oil, but not because of scarcity of oil.  We will see it do to the abundance of "dollars".  Price commodities in real money (gold) to see the true price of things.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:43 | 2425778 Marginal Call
    Marginal Call's picture

    And if we convert our transportation to NG?   We'll burn that quickly.

     

    Let's just say your namesake was wind powered and leave it at that.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:10 | 2425834 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    There is so much oil out there that we drill for it in miles of water and at temps of 10s of degrees below zero,  rather than . . . say . . . in Oklahoma -- which is so full and abundant that its daily oil production is down by about 80% (160K barrels/day) from what it was in 1927 (720K bpd).

    1927.  Technological improvements of what . . . 90ish years has resulted in a loss of 80% in the rate it comes out of the ground in Oklahoma.  And no, folks, there is no environmentalist obstruction; those leases were already approved decades ago.

    Yes, you can go empty.  Imagine that.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:48 | 2426008 The_Nihilist
    The_Nihilist's picture

    I think the plan of TPTB for the human race is a Matrix type thing. Instead of producing electricity we are going to produce refined crude from the tar sands in alberta. They probably got special machines, in goes the tar in your mouth then you shit out sweet refined crude. Also the whole happy life illusion thing probably isn't in the budget. Why do you think they got pipelines and rails going to those fema camps?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:08 | 2425842 Dixie Rect
    Dixie Rect's picture

    Hey Jim, When you bought that bowtie, did you get a free bowl of soup?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2425655 Eireann go Brach
    Eireann go Brach's picture

    Poor Maria has had her lips lipo fucked so hard that she can't talk properly anymore! But there is hardly a man that would still not shag her rotten!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:57 | 2425678 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    depends what kind of a mood I was in

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:08 | 2425716 OMG
    OMG's picture

    It would take all 12 of the Budweiser horses to drag my ass on top of that skank

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:18 | 2425735 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    Its not the beer that would do it but the horses!  I like what you did there

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:00 | 2425819 barliman
    barliman's picture

     

    He's using the Inverted Budweiser Scale. I learned the standard Budweiser scale 30 years ago while managing a construction site. An electrical contractor supervisor was in my office and a secretary came in to give me some papers.  He said, after she left, "Man! She's a 6 on the Budweiser scale."  She was fairly attactive and was an easy 8 on the Bo Derek 10 scale so I had to ask, "What do you mean a 6?"

    On the way out the door with a deadpan look he said, "That's the number of Clydesdales it would take to drag her off my face."

    I told her about it later. She thought it was funny as hell.

    barliman

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:17 | 2426037 CCanuck
    CCanuck's picture

    F**K...another keyboard, covered in coffee....that is funny!

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:04 | 2429978 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    A blow job maybe, but she would have to put a bag over her body.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:32 | 2425616 PersonalRespons...
    PersonalResponsibility's picture

    Purple with white polka dots... bitchez

     

    Dammit, missed it by that much.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:34 | 2425625 CrownThomas
    CrownThomas's picture

    the bow tie

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:23 | 2425744 Mugatu
    Mugatu's picture

    I like Jim, but his "aw shucks, I am just a dumb trader" routine gets old sometimes.  If you are going to appear on TV for God sakes, please say something new and inciteful.  Its like the same old act every time.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:58 | 2425818 CharlieSDT
    CharlieSDT's picture

    Thanks for your intelligent and "insightful" comment, dumbass.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 03:04 | 2426070 Western
    Western's picture

    You sound like my teenage ex-girlfriend.. always getting bored of boys.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:28 | 2425753 Non Passaran
    Non Passaran's picture

    And your point is....
    That P. Brosnan as Thomas Crown wore the bow tie?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:37 | 2425630 A Lunatic
    A Lunatic's picture

    Well don't just stand there, let's get going on that agricultural bubble; they don't build themselves you know.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:51 | 2425651 dwdollar
    dwdollar's picture

    There already is a bubble. Those $500k John Deere combines aren't that efficient to justify their price. Easy credit for everyone, even the farmers. The established ones anyways. It's about impossible to start a new farm (unless your a millionaire) thanks to said bubble, which is the real reason why the average farmer is so old.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:55 | 2425673 chenn
    chenn's picture

    Farmland that was purchased in the 50's for $99 an acre is now going for $4000 to $6000 without irrigation.  If it has irrigation I have heard prices from $8000 to $10000.  This is probably double what it would have gone for 10 years ago.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:03 | 2425701 dwdollar
    dwdollar's picture

    My grandfather got in at the right time during the 50's and 60's and has done relatively well. He took advantage of foreclosures back when we still had a shred of free market capitalism. Dad has always struggled and now my brother is really struggling. I'm staying away from the mayhem, but I still dream.

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