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Rogers: "Volume Is Not Going To Come Back. We've Had A Great 30 Years. That's Finished!"

Tyler Durden's picture


Jim Rogers is hedging his gold (and silver) positions reflecting that this is normal, following such a tremendous run, and that this is good for the precious metal in the long-run. In his discussion with Maria Bartiromo this afternoon, he notes India's anti-gold 'protectionism' (and its potential balance of payments issues) that are trying to force the hoarding into risky 'productive' assets (as others might say). The immutable commodity maven suggests JPMorgan (and its peers) could be behind the drops in the overall commodity complex as the uncertainty of their positions (and liquidation potential to raise cash as bank examiners begin their forensics) becomes more important. He holds the USD, which he hates; has a number of equity shorts; and is most fearful of banks - specifically admitting he is a serial seller of calls on JPMorgan. His advice, and perhaps Maria should look into it given their ratings recently, is to become a farmer; own farmland; and speculate on agriculture. On the dismal 'ethical' state of our leaders and management, the thoughtful Rogers opines, "You can read world history for decades. There are always people doing things wrong. We have not changed our human nature and we will continue to have scandals and problems" and in a follow-up to CNBC's standard 'money-on-the-sidelines' argument he crushes the money-honey's dreams: "Finance had a great 30 years. That's finished. Now to advance, we have too many people, too many MBAs, too much leverage and too many governments that don't like us". A must-see rebuttal to the 'normal' CNBC hopium with more on China's slowdown, a US recession, Europe and a Greek exit, QE3, and 'tractors'.


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Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:28 | 2425615 nwskii
nwskii's picture

Black Swan Bitchez

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:31 | 2425623 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Here's a 1/2 hour interview with Jim Rogers...taped May 13th:

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:39 | 2425636 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

We had 125 years of cheap petro. 


Peak or Not, $ = poop shoot 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:42 | 2425642 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

so, not buying China anymore then...

guess that didn't work out too well did it?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:47 | 2425785 flacon
flacon's picture

I bought FAZ today, triple short the S&P..... we'll see if that can recoup some of my mining losses in the next few weeks/months. 



Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:11 | 2425846 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Sorry to say it but Mr. Rogers is a trader and an entertainer. His farming BS is not even funny. He has no clue what farming is all about.

Just because he and Soros have made money being the Rothschild family agents does not mean that he is a genius.  Furthermore, both Rogers and Soros both belong to and promote interests of the Central Banks Oligarchy.

Finally, Rogers forgot to mention that FED still prints fiat US$ as if there is no tomorrow.


Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:49 | 2425905 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture
  • discussion with Maria Bartiromo.
  • If she doesn't cry he bottom is nowhere near.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:13 | 2425939 Harlequin001
    Harlequin001's picture

    This guy is fucking clueless. So I and others like me should become a farmer on Thursaday, eh, like it's that simple?

    Just put all your investments into something that can be taxed to oblivion and confiscated by the State because it's in the national interest. Just how long does he think it will be before price controls are implemented and your investment goes 'poof'?

    And as for the gold price, since when do corporate investors (primarily banks who are predominently net short) reducing their positions to supposedly improve liquidity result in the gold price going DOWN?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:25 | 2426040 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    One thing he is right about is Gold and India.

    Actually the story si even more interesting than that. 

    Three things have been played in concert to supress Silver and Gold sales in INdia since about July last year.

    And that is keeping the rupee on a stead down-slide since then. Approximately 20% decline vs. the dollar.

    20%. It makes so many things beautiful.

    a) Struggling outsourcers, seeing their overseas revenue drying up show 20% higher earnings due to currency moves. They, as companies are shitty hedgers, ALL of them. SO, weak rupee good for them, and thus us? 

    b) INR/$ at 44, Silver is approximately 50,000 rupees a kilo. Highish. Silver in dollars is at or about 30-33.

    INR/$ currently at 54. Silver is approximately 50,000 rupees a kilo. Silver in dollars is at 28.


    Clever? Hardly, just pure manipulation. If someone with chartiing skillz looked at the Rupee/Dollar/Silver complex since about June/July 2011....I think it might be stunning.



    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:28 | 2426044 AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    India is a land of scammers.

    How much of that gold is real 24k?


    Too many people in India causing world hunger. Time to institute one child policy.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:52 | 2426131 zhandax
    zhandax's picture

    Bingo; I won't go so far as to call him clueless, but if the Morgue is liquidating commodity positions, it is liquidating shorts, not longs.  This does not explain the drop in prices.  To me, this suggests that they, (likely at the behest of the bernank) are doubling up to fuck up on metals (as the saying goes).

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 06:04 | 2426136 Harlequin001
    Harlequin001's picture

    Absolutely. Sounds like a good time to sell gold and load up on silver for the bounce, so to speak...

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:06 | 2426250 Quinvarius
    Quinvarius's picture

    Remember, the CME just tried to enact a global margin raise.  Commodities started diving a month or so before that.  It was cancelled, but there are ways to help Morgan get out of massive paper shorts.  I have no doubt they are being assisted and the paper positions are being transferred to some quasi-government agency or another.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:19 | 2425957 Manthong
    Manthong's picture

    Peak farmers?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:54 | 2426060 AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    But, with an average size farm here worth several million, there is almost no opportunity for new farmers, if they don't come from the family.

    And, the average size farm here cannot support a family: at best it provides some supplemental income. They may break even or make a samll profit on operational costs and provide some home grown food and game for the family. But if you consider the value of land rent, it is a dead loss. As a result, farm children are reluctant to enter the business.

    The large family farms and commercial farms have the capital and expertise to improve their production subsantially, smaller farms are both capital and labor constrained because they must be supported by off farm work.

    Medium sized small farms may be in active production, but they operate on a part time basis. They may provide as much as 20% of family gross income and yet operate at a small profit or even a loss. Despite that they provide substantial income to the community through purchases of farm related equipment and supplies. In that sense they act as a funnel bringing off-farm income into the local community. .... that's around $25,000 a year.

    Finally, there are niche farms that specialize in some small market, or are able to vertically integrate. These can be very profitable, but such niches are notoriously faddish and unstable.

    Also, small farms may sell some timber every 20 years or so and get a big one-time boost in income that makes their overall profit better than it appears on a yearly basis. And, there is, necessarily, an element of land speculation in such operations. Scratch a farmer and you will find a developer.

    As one of my farm neighbors put it, waving his hands up an down, palms up, "Every year I have to weigh my options: $50,000 a year vs $6 million, and get the heck out."

    Neither is production the whole story. Farms pay the same tax as anyone else on their residence and two acres. Plus they pay tax on all the other structures, at residential rates. Then they pay additional tax on the vacant, agricultural, land, but at a lower rate.

    The county provides almost no services to this land so tax on vacant land is like free money to the county, and it is a windfall in lower taxes for all the residentiall citizens. Overall, farms pay twice as much in taxes as they get in services.


    let's see a family farm compete against corporate farms with Monsanto's Terminator seeds and their awyers where you lose the right to replant the next year's crop using the same seed.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 04:43 | 2426114 jez
    jez's picture

    A friend of mine, a dairy farmer in the UK for nearly 30 years, sold up a while ago for two reasons: (a) no money in it any more, and (b) the never-ending blizzard of paperwork and legislation from London and from Brussels. He had filing cabinets crammed with thousands and thousands of pages of unreadable but enforceable bullshit, with more arriving all the time, and he was spending more time filling in forms than doing anything else. Finally, he had no enthusiasm left.


    I do wonder if Mr Rogers knows anything about farming. He often mentions it, and points out how few young farmers there are now. But rightly or wrongly, I get the impression that he looks at it through a trader's eyes: jump into farming when it's undervalued, jump out again somewhere near the top of the curve. Farming isn't like that. If you jump into it with no experience, you won't last long.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:16 | 2426118 Going Loco
    Going Loco's picture

    Agree with that - my family sold its main farm 40 years ago for exactly the same reason (paperwork and unreadable bullshit government rules) and we have done well out of other activities ever since. But it's not entirely true to say that a trader can't make money out of farmland. When land prices are rising rapidly it's possible to buy and sell, pay the stamp duty land tax (or whatever the local government charges) on acquisition and the CGT (or whatever capital taxes the local government charges on a sale), and the lawyer's charges on acquisition and sale, and the land registration fees, and the agent's fee on sale, and any property taxes and insurance during the period of ownership, and make a profit. But it's a lot harder than trading on a stock exchange and if I were selling and I saw Mr. Rogers coming I'd rub my hands with gleeful anticipation (and get my shearer out and ready). For UK readers - don't forget that farm and forestry land is exempt from Inheritance Tax (subject to certain rules). For that reason I still own some farmland, but really it's just part of my tax planning rather than anything else.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 06:55 | 2426158 youngman
    youngman's picture

    From an Iowa is very expensive now....small family farms..the 160 acres type.....are to small for the new generation tractors and need 1000 acres plus to make those investments pay off...taxes are cheap....I disagree the state or counties do nothing for them...they take care of the roads...electric...telephone...schools....all subsidized by the city dwellers....and of course the big federal Farm programs...yes you need to be an accountant to fill out the forms...and a pretty savy investor...and they mostly are....the new farmer is college educated...knows business...does not like Wille very political...and is very technical...they are making money know.....but land lease rates are going is land costs if you are gooing to buy...I just sold 90 small to farm...I had it leased to my neighbor...for $12,000 an acre.....that is a high price because it is close to a city and someday might have some development potential...but now its just corn....farming is big business...and you need alot of capital to get into it right now.....a bad time I think...where was Mr Bowtie when land was $2000 an acre just a few short years ago....

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 07:28 | 2426197 CPL
    CPL's picture

    It's insane.  Even then, with nature acting as a vicious mistress over the last ten years.  Water at the wrong time, too little when it's needed, well levels are at half what they were 10 years ago. 

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:22 | 2426289 terex
    terex's picture

    Well it might be that JR thinks of somewhat different places... like Russia, Ukraine orThai and Vietnam. Here you find cheap labour and cheap land and pro gov sponsoring (well mby not in Russia). It is likely he knows nothing about the craft, but I guess he knows at least a tiny whiney about demand (just look at the guy, he is 110% sales)...

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:13 | 2425940 Widowmaker
    Widowmaker's picture

    That faggot with a bow tie gets paid to go on shill TV.  Enough said.

    When he addresses fraud inc he might be getting a clue.

    His money is no good.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:56 | 2426066 AldousHuxley
    AldousHuxley's picture

    He moved to Singapore for future prospects and all that while still retaining US citizenship becuase he knows that Chinese military can bomb the entire country into oblivion when SHTF. As much as he is anti-America, he still holds on to that US passport of his so he can get his ass rescued by US military.


    what he really meant to say was "I got lucky last 30 years, so don't listen to anything I predict about the future"

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 10:55 | 2427004 Widowmaker
    Widowmaker's picture

    His money is no still no good and he got no class.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 03:00 | 2426068 Western
    Western's picture

    "Finally, Rogers forgot to mention that FED still prints fiat US$ as if there is no tomorrow."


    Did you even watch the interview? Thanks for nullifying your entire post.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 07:27 | 2426194 CPL
    CPL's picture

    You retard.


    Put in your stop loss on purchase of ALL x3 Leveraged ETF...and NEVER hold x3 ETF's over night.  EVER. 


    BTW.  You are about to lose your shirt.


    ..<mutter mutter...keep telling people to stay the fuck out of they mutter>

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:05 | 2425704 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    That's pretty close to correct, if inelegant.

    Rogers senses things, but he doesn't really understand oil -- though to his credit he IS aware of the suggestion of scarcity and aligns it with the reality of 7 billion people.  He just doesn't understand the details.

    The rest of his mantras . . . farming . . . they have merit, but that also falls afoul of his not fully understanding the oil situation and what it will do to farming knowledge.  

    Being 100% up to speed on how to farm with tractors and fertilizer isn't too valuable as oil's relentless scarcity asserts itself.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:15 | 2425725 flying dutchmen
    flying dutchmen's picture

    there is a lot of oil out there bitchez..  doubt we will ever see 200 bucks..  Trucks are converting to NG and others to hybrids.  BUT remember everyone was talking about running out of Natural Gas in 2007........... That sure as hell did not happened.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:38 | 2425768 FEDbuster
    FEDbuster's picture

    We will see $200/barrel oil, but not because of scarcity of oil.  We will see it do to the abundance of "dollars".  Price commodities in real money (gold) to see the true price of things.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:43 | 2425778 Marginal Call
    Marginal Call's picture

    And if we convert our transportation to NG?   We'll burn that quickly.


    Let's just say your namesake was wind powered and leave it at that.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:10 | 2425834 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    There is so much oil out there that we drill for it in miles of water and at temps of 10s of degrees below zero,  rather than . . . say . . . in Oklahoma -- which is so full and abundant that its daily oil production is down by about 80% (160K barrels/day) from what it was in 1927 (720K bpd).

    1927.  Technological improvements of what . . . 90ish years has resulted in a loss of 80% in the rate it comes out of the ground in Oklahoma.  And no, folks, there is no environmentalist obstruction; those leases were already approved decades ago.

    Yes, you can go empty.  Imagine that.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:48 | 2426008 The_Nihilist
    The_Nihilist's picture

    I think the plan of TPTB for the human race is a Matrix type thing. Instead of producing electricity we are going to produce refined crude from the tar sands in alberta. They probably got special machines, in goes the tar in your mouth then you shit out sweet refined crude. Also the whole happy life illusion thing probably isn't in the budget. Why do you think they got pipelines and rails going to those fema camps?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:08 | 2425842 Dixie Rect
    Dixie Rect's picture

    Hey Jim, When you bought that bowtie, did you get a free bowl of soup?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2425655 Eireann go Brach
    Eireann go Brach's picture

    Poor Maria has had her lips lipo fucked so hard that she can't talk properly anymore! But there is hardly a man that would still not shag her rotten!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:57 | 2425678 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    depends what kind of a mood I was in

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:08 | 2425716 OMG
    OMG's picture

    It would take all 12 of the Budweiser horses to drag my ass on top of that skank

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:18 | 2425735 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    Its not the beer that would do it but the horses!  I like what you did there

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:00 | 2425819 barliman
    barliman's picture


    He's using the Inverted Budweiser Scale. I learned the standard Budweiser scale 30 years ago while managing a construction site. An electrical contractor supervisor was in my office and a secretary came in to give me some papers.  He said, after she left, "Man! She's a 6 on the Budweiser scale."  She was fairly attactive and was an easy 8 on the Bo Derek 10 scale so I had to ask, "What do you mean a 6?"

    On the way out the door with a deadpan look he said, "That's the number of Clydesdales it would take to drag her off my face."

    I told her about it later. She thought it was funny as hell.


    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:17 | 2426037 CCanuck
    CCanuck's picture

    F**K...another keyboard, covered in coffee....that is funny!

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:04 | 2429978 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    A blow job maybe, but she would have to put a bag over her body.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:32 | 2425616 PersonalRespons...
    PersonalResponsibility's picture

    Purple with white polka dots... bitchez


    Dammit, missed it by that much.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:34 | 2425625 CrownThomas
    CrownThomas's picture

    the bow tie

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:23 | 2425744 Mugatu
    Mugatu's picture

    I like Jim, but his "aw shucks, I am just a dumb trader" routine gets old sometimes.  If you are going to appear on TV for God sakes, please say something new and inciteful.  Its like the same old act every time.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:58 | 2425818 CharlieSDT
    CharlieSDT's picture

    Thanks for your intelligent and "insightful" comment, dumbass.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 03:04 | 2426070 Western
    Western's picture

    You sound like my teenage ex-girlfriend.. always getting bored of boys.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:28 | 2425753 Non Passaran
    Non Passaran's picture

    And your point is....
    That P. Brosnan as Thomas Crown wore the bow tie?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:37 | 2425630 A Lunatic
    A Lunatic's picture

    Well don't just stand there, let's get going on that agricultural bubble; they don't build themselves you know.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:51 | 2425651 dwdollar
    dwdollar's picture

    There already is a bubble. Those $500k John Deere combines aren't that efficient to justify their price. Easy credit for everyone, even the farmers. The established ones anyways. It's about impossible to start a new farm (unless your a millionaire) thanks to said bubble, which is the real reason why the average farmer is so old.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:55 | 2425673 chenn
    chenn's picture

    Farmland that was purchased in the 50's for $99 an acre is now going for $4000 to $6000 without irrigation.  If it has irrigation I have heard prices from $8000 to $10000.  This is probably double what it would have gone for 10 years ago.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:03 | 2425701 dwdollar
    dwdollar's picture

    My grandfather got in at the right time during the 50's and 60's and has done relatively well. He took advantage of foreclosures back when we still had a shred of free market capitalism. Dad has always struggled and now my brother is really struggling. I'm staying away from the mayhem, but I still dream.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:37 | 2425897 walküre
    walküre's picture

    Go to a local cattle or other livestock auction. You'll want to get in soon and stay in.

    Stop dreaming, start planning and acting.

    There will be a time when small local agricultural operations are feeding a multignerational family again.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:02 | 2429968 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    Yes, but only after the New World Order has been crushed!

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:15 | 2425720 GoinFawr
    GoinFawr's picture

     And if that arable land had spring-fed potable water on it right smartly they's a gonna use the lion's share o' that to frac/SAGD the natty/oil out from under it. On the upside though with a little ingenuity you may be able to heat and cook by McGyvering your former water plumbing to your stove and furnace; just don't think that mom won't find out if you attempt to burn one down in the bathroom!

    Oh and say you have a Compressor Station upwind, try to keep in mind: if it's the dead of winter and colder than an Iron Maiden's tit, but the air outside looks as mirage-y as if it's coming off blacktop at high noon in the middle of deepest summer, don't open a window or even breathe until you've got your SCUBA kit on.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:31 | 2425886 dbomb12
    dbomb12's picture

    Until they implement AGENDA 21

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:36 | 2426048 mcguire
    mcguire's picture

    exactly.  or this..

    On March 16, 2012, President Obama issued an executive order entitled, "NATIONAL DEFENSE RESOURCES PREPAREDNESS." (

    This executive order states that the President alone has the authority to take over all resources in the nation (labor, food, industry, etc.) as long as it is done "to promote the national defense" -- a phrase so vague that it could mean practically anything.

    The power to seize control and take over these resources is delegated to the following government authorities:

    (1) the Secretary of Agriculture with respect to food resources, food resource facilities, livestock resources, veterinary resources, plant health resources, and the domestic distribution of farm equipment and commercial fertilizer;

    (2) the Secretary of Energy with respect to all forms of energy;

    (3) the Secretary of Health and Human Services with respect to health resources;

    (4) the Secretary of Transportation with respect to all forms of civil transportation;

    (5) the Secretary of Defense with respect to water resources; and

    (6) the Secretary of Commerce with respect to all other materials, services, and facilities, including construction materials.

    This takeover is designed, in part, to "stockpile supplies" for the U.S. military. Authority for this total takeover of all national resources is granted with nothing more than the writing of a single statement that claims these actions are necessary to "promote the national defense." As stated in the order:

    the authority delegated by section 201 of this order may be used only to support programs that have been determined in writing as necessary or appropriate to promote the national defense:

    (a) by the Secretary of Defense with respect to military production and construction, military assistance to foreign nations, military use of civil transportation, stockpiles managed by the Department of Defense, space, and directly related activities;

    What all this means is that the U.S. government now claims the power to simplymarch onto your farm with guns drawn and demand all your crops, seeds, livestock and farm equipment.

    Learn more:

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:08 | 2426253 Fred C Dobbs
    Fred C Dobbs's picture

    The executive order from our King is and will be used one day.  Thank you for your post and never stop reminding people.  

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 22:01 | 2429962 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    To all you New World Order minions who think you are on the winning side, please think again.  As they said in "Raiders of the Lost Arch", "you have chosen poorly!"

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:34 | 2425890 hornster
    hornster's picture

    High interest rates drove out the small farmers.  Now financing is cheap.  The little guy is gone, corporate farming is huge......

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:07 | 2425711 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture


    An oxen team required 8 hours to plow one acre of land.  Required as in past tense cuz oxen are no longer what they were.  They have been bred larger now and eat more and drink more.  They need rests.

    A John Deere tractor can do a straight line run of XX feet width plow and do 1 acre in 2.3 minutes.

    That all goes away as oil's scarcity crushes things.  Oxen can't plow enough field for 7 billion people before growing season expires.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:52 | 2425804 Caviar Emptor
    Caviar Emptor's picture

    Not enough yoemen either. Too many yuppie corporate farmers. 

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:54 | 2425807 bahaar
    bahaar's picture

    Who says all the 7 billion get to eat now?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:56 | 2425811 flacon
    flacon's picture

    Solar powered micro-bots will be the next invention. No more need to till the soil, just deploy the robots and voila. 

    Control your field via Facebook. 

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:45 | 2425896 GoinFawr
    GoinFawr's picture

    the future always sounded kinda pipedreamy to the past, no? As long as the current crop of self purported 'appropriate' elities can make hay off every 'bot, who knows? Some ten year old 'Tesla' just read your post, and he's on it. Hopefully the kid'll research the original Tesla a bit though, and won't make the mistake of introducing the discoveries to the wrong sort of people.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:51 | 2425911 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    You do understand that the sun provides just 1 kilowatt per square meter of surface area?  That's about 1.3 horsepower.  

    Those tractors are 400 horsepower.  That's what you require to til 1 acre in 2.3 minutes.

    Your solar powered micro-bot will need 307 square meters of surface area to do what that tractor does.  Sound micro to you?  You know what happens to a surface area that big if a wind gust comes along?  Oh, you're going to make it heavy to prevent that  . . . on this micro bot.

    The glory of technology advancement is about ENGINEERING.  It's not about physics.  You can improve engineering.  You can't improve physics.

    That 1000 watt number is what the sun puts on 1 square meter.  It has nothing to do with solar cell technology.  That's the sun's max.  

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:08 | 2425921 GoinFawr
    GoinFawr's picture

    I have a hunch that Flacon was being facetious.... but just for fun: by your metrics how long would it take to plow one square meter of soil (to the depth of 3/4 of a cubit say) with 1.3 Clydesdales?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:25 | 2425967 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    Horses were never the plow puller of choice.  The question would not arise.

    The problem is "getting through winter".  You have to feed the animals through winter.

    You generally are plowing and cultivating 30-40% of the land to yield hay.  Then the team comes out in fall to load it on wagons and haul it back to the barn to feed them through the winter.

    Horses eat more.  Then there is the disease issue.

    Don't sneer too very much at this stuff.  There were 350,000 horses in NYC of 1900 to haul food in to feed the 1 million people there.  From the surrounding farms that are now parking lots, and there are now 8 million ppl there.

    Make no mistake about this.  When oil goes, so do you.

    Wed, 05/16/2012 - 17:38 | 2427206 GoinFawr
    GoinFawr's picture

    Nice tangent you're off on here, but your rationalizations didn't really answer my (admittedly tongue in cheek) question. 

    Anyway, it's plain that my actual point was that your '1.3 hp' can be harnessed to chew up one square meter of topsoil fairly quickly, regardless of its mode of transmission; be it horse, oil, or wind/geothermal/solar powered implements.  As you pointed out: it's a matter of engineering, not physics.

    I'm not sneering, just noting that back when "There were 350,000 horses in NYC of 1900 to haul food in to feed the 1 million people there." it's not much of a stretch to surmise that the majority of those people would have thought you a bit off if you suggested that, oh I don't know, in less than a century we'd be flying Buicks to the moon, for example. No? Of course forced, unexpected change will have egregious adverse effects for the unprepared masses, but your foregone conclusion isn't foregone.

    FWIW: that downtick isn't mine, I agree with peak oilers when it comes to the obvious unsustainability of basing whole economies on artificially cheap finite non-renewable resources. I just happen to see that, in light of our species' history, there are other options that will not be properly explored until the oil is all but gone, or TPTB can't get the ROI they want with hydrocarbons anymore, whichever comes first.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:56 | 2429954 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    She was only the farmer's daughter but all the horse manure.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:07 | 2425832 wisefool
    wisefool's picture

    Warren Buffets son is a farmer. he has several John deere combines that literally drive themselves. (60 minutes) He probably gets hundreds of thousands of dollars in AG incentives to not farm the land he owns, but can outbid anybody grossing less than $500,000/yr and will drive those machines 100 miles to pick up those rented acres. Most USDA reported income forms have 3 categories. <$500k ; <$1M ; $1M+

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:54 | 2425913 CrashisOptimistic
    CrashisOptimistic's picture

    What he gets is a lot of oil to fuel them.

    That's going away.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:54 | 2429944 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    I wonder if the son of the eugenicist got any of his dad's companies' $92,000,000,000.00 in TARP money.  But, most importantly, does the son also like ice cream cones?

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:56 | 2426062 mrpxsytin
    mrpxsytin's picture

    You're right about the bubble in machinery costs. And try $750k combines! But you're wrong about the farmer's age. They DO have children you know... The children are just not choosing to stay on the farm in the same numbers as before. AND farmers aren't having as many children as they used to. I'm from Western Australia and a lot of the people I know were born on farms but they are now living in the city. A since when was starting a farm not exepensive? Even if you got the land for FREE a lot of money is required to set it up.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:20 | 2426283 prole
    prole's picture

    China is buying up Aussie and African farmland. So JR is right, the money will be made in farming in the future, but the governments will make sure that only the insiders and the connected like Monsatan, and I'm including "China" as fully connected, will be allowed to make that money. Small farmers will be taxed and regulated out of the business as planned.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:38 | 2425632 midgetrannyporn
    midgetrannyporn's picture

    That flies in the face of the assertion by many on this board that JPM and Blythe in particular are heavily short gold and silver.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:52 | 2425669 buzzsaw99
    buzzsaw99's picture

    Right on mtp! I've read that same tired old saw in the comments at least an[sic] hundred times over the past year. Blythe Masters and Jamie Dimon are suppressing the price of silver. wawawawawawa

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:56 | 2425676 midgetrannyporn
    midgetrannyporn's picture

    According to Rogers they were on the same side of the trade. hahahahahahaha!!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:58 | 2425813 flacon
    flacon's picture

    When one straddles the fence, one gets kicked in the balls.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:40 | 2426050 mcguire
    mcguire's picture

    the assertion that jpm is responsible for the decrease in gold prices is absurd.  read this, you will see why:

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:38 | 2425633 navy62802
    navy62802's picture

    Maria "stocks are off the lows of the day" Bartiromo.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:40 | 2425639 veyron
    veyron's picture

    Bob 'off the lows' Pissani

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:36 | 2425634 LouisDega
    LouisDega's picture

    I dont see a tie. I see a big fucking white arrow in a black box

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:00 | 2425692 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    I have no idea what you're referring to and its gona bug the hell out of me now. 

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:01 | 2425922 Midas
    Midas's picture

    A while back someone on this board said Kim Kardashian was at the age when a woman has "three men who are tired of putting up with her bullshit." I have been trying to figure out what that means, mostly because I want to start saying it...

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:49 | 2429928 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    Reminds me of the female definition of marriage:  "Trading the attention of many men for the inattention of one."

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:51 | 2425638 barliman
    barliman's picture


    Volume will come back ...

    ... but not until the markets break.

    If Bernanke had stayed out of the QE game 3+ years ago, the markets would have found a natural bottom. Granted, some people on Wall Street would have chosen to be street pizza ...

    The housing market would have crashed hard and made the S&L crisis of the late '80's look like a spring picnic. It too would have found a bottom for a while ... until the Foreclosure Fraud had come out. Then it would have been interesting to see that problem actually addressed in the courts.

    Gold would currently be coming down from a 2010 high of $ 5,000/oz. 

    Europe would still be ...... Europe. It was broken. It still is, and it is going to have to break more before it can fix itself.

    Oh well, here we are. At the top of a new toboggan ride.

    Be sure you lean into the curves!


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:01 | 2425698 NotApplicable
    NotApplicable's picture

    They said the same thing about global trade volume after WWI. They were right, by 1993.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:04 | 2425829 barliman
    barliman's picture


    If they had left things alone in 2009, I would have bought a fair number of equities at near bottom prices and held on to them for 15 years.

    When it became obvious (March 2009) Bernanke thought he was smarter than the markets, they became day trades.

    If the markets ever break free, there will be opportunities when they bottom that only come along every 100 years or so.

    Have money at the right place in the right time and you can leave a quirky trust behind to try to make your descendants act like human beings instead of leeches.


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:50 | 2425794 Marginal Call
    Marginal Call's picture

    Stayed out of the QE game?  I'm waiting for round three to get back in.  Until then, it's just a weekly trip to the SLV dealer of the metal kind

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:07 | 2425833 barliman
    barliman's picture


    Stay out?

    Why would I do that?  When the markets are volatile is when you can make REAL money.


    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:45 | 2429913 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    Well said and the proof is what happened in the mini-depression in 1921 in the U. S..  We stood back and let the toilet flush and the economy quickly recovered.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:39 | 2425640 walcott
    walcott's picture

    Investor Jim Rogers Gives Dire Warning

    A Gift for My Children. Screw everybody elses Children.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:59 | 2425815 flacon
    flacon's picture

    He's just being a good Dad. 

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:58 | 2425816 flacon
    flacon's picture

    Duplicate post

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:42 | 2425643 El Oregonian
    El Oregonian's picture


    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:46 | 2426125 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    Wait a few more months and you'll be able to buy the bottom.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2425648 blueridgeviews
    blueridgeviews's picture

    According to Jim we are running out of farmers so demand for farm land will go down.  Remind me again why Jim is buying farms?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:59 | 2425694 barkingbill
    barkingbill's picture

    unless we start running out of people....there will always be demand for farms...

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2425649 lsbumblebee
    lsbumblebee's picture

    I'm afraid nowadays if you started a farm some revenooer would come along and declare it Israel.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2425650 infiniti
    infiniti's picture

    Amazing... Rogers has never made a bad trade in his life!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:45 | 2425656 BlackMagician
    BlackMagician's picture
    Economy gets better commodities go up. Economy gets worse they print... Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication...
    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:49 | 2425662 I should be working
    I should be working's picture

    Too many MBAs?  And what exactly did Roger's do with his life that was so valuable?


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:58 | 2425683 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    not sure what he's done but he's right about the MBAs

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:45 | 2426354 xela2200
    xela2200's picture

    I disagree. I got my MBA, and I would do it again if in the same position. An MBA is what you make of it. If you are just passing tests to get a better job, then you will be disappointed at some point.  However, if you concentrate on getting skills, then you can apply the skills to any financial endevour including running a farm.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:00 | 2425697 barkingbill
    barkingbill's picture

    he's talking about now and in the future

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:36 | 2426126 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    My guess is more than you have or will.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:43 | 2429898 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    He helped freedom lover George Soros destroy the British Pound and make a cool billion overnight.  Nice work if you can get it!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:52 | 2425664 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    "they have a person running commodities who doesn't know what that person is doing" haha

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:51 | 2425665 Plumplechook
    Plumplechook's picture

    Fuck I am sick of the pontifications of this bowtied idiot.  Can someone please  gaffer tape his mouth.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:38 | 2426128 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    No but I hope they do yours.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:57 | 2425679 Anarchyteez
    Anarchyteez's picture

    Who's the fucktard down arrowing everyone?

    I've got a few acres of farmland, food is good. And it's not in the USSA.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:56 | 2425682 desinova
    desinova's picture

    So the message is we should sell our gold/silver?  Can somone clarify which way the wind is blowing?


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:02 | 2425702 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    only sell your gold/silver if you're buying a tractor with it

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:53 | 2425803 Marginal Call
    Marginal Call's picture

    Paraffin tractor.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:42 | 2425901 dbomb12
    dbomb12's picture

    The message is dont listen to financial stooges. The fundamentals of fiat currency and printing have not changed and will continue to get worse, Europe is collapsing and the US will follow. meanwhile the Chinese are buying gold on the dip

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 05:38 | 2426129 TWSceptic
    TWSceptic's picture

    You should not buy or sell and wait for 1200 gold then buy.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:59 | 2425687 ironsky
    ironsky's picture

    If Maria becomes a farmer she will have the calluses on her butt surgically transferred to her hands.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 02:06 | 2426026 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    A disturbingly disturbing visual.Awesome!


    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:41 | 2429893 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    Damn.  That is briliant!!!!!!!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:57 | 2425688 Cabreado
    Cabreado's picture

    "You can read world history for decades. There are always people doing things wrong. We have not changed our human nature and we will continue to have scandals and problems"

    To the thoughtful Mr. Rogers...

    You neglect the part where in world history we finally encounter more than a speed bump when scandals run unchecked.

    -50 points for you, Mr. Rogers, you historian, you...

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:00 | 2425693 Mr Lennon Hendrix
    Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

    Rogers is a dunce.  He is like a schoolboy at a casino with daddy's money.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:16 | 2425726 Hedgetard55
    Hedgetard55's picture

    A very wealthy dunce, however.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:35 | 2425762 Cabreado
    Cabreado's picture

    Though we seem to be having an extra-special struggle over this "wealth" thing...

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:01 | 2425699 junkyardjack
    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:03 | 2425700 Parisnights
    Parisnights's picture

    Silver bitchez


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:08 | 2425715 walcott
    walcott's picture

    The bank examiners. 

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:10 | 2425717 walcott
    walcott's picture

    Become a farmer grow radioactive food.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:38 | 2429884 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    And genetically modified too!!!!!!!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:15 | 2425724 walcott
    walcott's picture

    the jerkoff emplored the entire American piublic to buy gold at 2k on GB DB TV.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:14 | 2425727 scraping_by
    scraping_by's picture
    "Volume Is Not Going To Come Back."


    Ah, but with HFT, you can have all the volume your want. No limits. Get both sides to bid it up good. Whatever number you want.




    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:15 | 2425730 loveyajimbo
    loveyajimbo's picture

    I think his time is past... gold is a play against currency debasement, period.  Think that is going to stop anytime soon?  Think JP Morgan being forced to liquidate their massive silver shorts will cause silver to drop?  BAH!!  And run your tractor off nat gas, fill it up from your gas line at home.  And retire maria and get Sophia veraga with the huge knockers!

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:19 | 2425732 European American
    European American's picture



    It's a beautiful day in this neighborhood, 
    A beautiful day for a neighbor, 
    Would you be mine? 
    Could you be mine? 

    It's a neighborly day in this beautywood, 
    A neighborly day for a beauty, 
    Would you be mine? 
    Could you be mine? 

    I have always wanted to have a neighbor just like you, 
    I've always wanted to live in a neighborhood with you. 

    So let's make the most of this beautiful day, 
    Since we're together, we might as well say, 
    Would you be mine? 
    Could you be mine? 
    Won't you be my neighbor? 

    Won't you please, 
    Won't you please, 
    Please won't you be my neighbor? 


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:20 | 2425738 kristian01
    kristian01's picture

    you know, if you say the same thing in every single interview, at some point you will have timed a CNBC visit that coincides with a recent validating movement...of course, now that he's been "correct"--for about 1 month--out of the last 36, he's the voice of reason!

    too bad he didn't have the fortitude to actually short stocks in April 2009, in line with his bluster, then we wouldn't have to listen to his zero value-add every 2 months on some grainy Skype feed from Singapore.

    other than the Dow at, oh, 7600 in the lower right corner of the video, that could have been today...

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:49 | 2425790 dwayne elizando
    dwayne elizando's picture

    Hasn't he said he was shorting treasuries for a while also?

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:25 | 2425745 cnhedge
    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:32 | 2425757 Godisanhftbot
    Godisanhftbot's picture

     Screw Rogers and the Mandarins he serves. 

     He's buried as many as he's helped with his calls

     Hey, didnt a REAL billionaire kick him out on his ear?


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:39 | 2425767 mademesmile
    mademesmile's picture

    long tractors.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 21:36 | 2429876 Tuco Benedicto ...
    Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

    Long guns!:)

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:45 | 2425783 TheObsoleteMan
    TheObsoleteMan's picture

    In the short term, Jim's advice is sound. But I think I know what is coming for agriculture trades, and it is not going to be pretty. As food and staple prices continue to skyrocket due to money creation and cetral banks balance sheet expansion, just like with oil, the blame will be placed on "those greedy agriculture speculators". That is when we will see position limits and the like. Just like the soviets, they will attempt price controls, which will fail as always. I would not want to be a farmer, or own farm land. REMEMEBR WHAT HAPPENED TO THE KULAKS? They resisted "change" ie, collectivization, and paid for it with their lives. The Feds will nationalize farmland, and lease management rights back to the former owners for a percentage. Sharecroppers. The politicans will need cover for all of their failures, and they will play the blame game. Mark these words.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:48 | 2425907 walküre
    walküre's picture

    The Feds will be too busy hiding under rocks when it gets to that stage. The American farmers will barter food and feed supplies for diesel, gold and silver.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:49 | 2425789 wisefool
    wisefool's picture

    Rediculous. There is no shortage of people who know how to drive tractors, put crops in the ground, get 'em out and make delivery.

    It is the tax status of "farmer" that is "aging" as Jim described. Kinda like how Sam Donaldson (ABC news) is one of the largest sheep farmers in the USA according to USDA kickbacks. The trade is specialized. you start as a truck driver/mechanic. eventually you might get to the utility work (chisel plowing, mowing/excavating CRP land/waterways, working the irrigation systems.) Many operations hire out the pesticides and fertilizer application, but thats the next step up. The whole time you are working a W-2 job either in the industry, or one that allows time off during the planting/harvest weeks. This provides benefits, pensions, SS, Medicare, and yes social interaction that you are not going to get sitting on a tractor.

    You retire from your W-2 job in your 50s, inherit, buy or rent land/equipment, and then you start filing your taxes as a farmer. hence jim's scary statistic about the farmers all going, to die off. But what would you expect from an MBA/tax/central planner type living in china? Hey Jim. Let just a couple of your many farm plots go fallow for a year. You'll have suitors of all ages & tax statuses, ringing your phone off the hook, to farm your land. More suitors than maria had when she was 25.

    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:48 | 2425791 jimmyjames
    jimmyjames's picture

    Rogers missed the best part of the gold bull-

    Here's a snip from the past (2005)

    He was wrong--

    Central bankers started buying gold-when he said they would sell-

    Gold was trading at $400 when he made that sell call-


    Jim Rogers: I own some gold and gold is a commodity, although there are people out there who think it’s holy and mystical and different. I own some gold. I hasten to tell you, I own some personally. But gold’s supply-and-demand situation is not nearly as positive as it is for other things.

    75% of the money spent exploring for metals in 2003 was spent looking for gold. Nobody’s out there looking for zinc or lead or tin; they’re looking for gold. And, of course, there are the central banks The central banks have stupendous amounts of gold, which they want to sell. I’m not saying they’re right or wrong. But the fact is, there’s a tremendous amount of gold overhanging the market, and that’s not true of any other commodity.


    Mon, 05/14/2012 - 23:56 | 2425809 Caviar Emptor
    Caviar Emptor's picture

    Jim's right about the 30-year bull run on bullsih financialization. The downsizing of the complex is just beginning. 

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:08 | 2425836 time123
    time123's picture

    Rogers may be right in the long term, but I do not believe we are there yet. We still have some time to go until the current stock mania subsides.

    By the way, lots of people are shorting right now. I expect a major short covering rally any day now. You heard it here first.



    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:11 | 2425851 zebrasquid
    zebrasquid's picture

    Rogers is right about half the time, like tails or heads.


    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:24 | 2425875 El
    El's picture


    German Parliament wants accounting of gold reserves; Bundesbank resisting
    Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2012-05-14 18:34. Section: Daily Dispatches
    German Bundestag Examines Assesment of Gold Reserves

    From Reuters
    via Die Welt, Berlin
    Monday, May 14, 2012…

    Translation by Lars Schall

    The German parliament, the Bundestag, is looking at the accounting of German gold reserves at the Bundesbank. Parliament’s Budget Committee has requested, in opposition to the Bundesbank, a critical report by the Federal Audit Office, the newspaper Bild reports.

    "The decision has been unanimous," the paper quoted the Christian Social Union budget expert Herbert Frankenhauser. The newspaper report alleged "account cheating" regarding the German gold reserves.

    According to the Bild report, the federal auditing office complained of "inadequate dilegence of the accounting of the gold reserves, which are stored in some foreign countries. Repatriation of the gold reserves is encouraged. The German gold reserves are in part held at foreign central banks.

    The federal audit office wants to weaken the report in regard to the security of other countries and provide to the parliament a shorter summary that could be read only in the secret shelter of the Bundestag.

    The head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, was trying to convice the leadership of the Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union to request such a requirement for the report.

    Germany has with 3,400 tons of gold, the world’s second largest gold reserves. They are managed by the Bundesbank and are part of the country’s currency reserves.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:59 | 2426024 Manthong
    Manthong's picture

    From March:

    In Germany, according to the newspaper Bild, a Parliamentary Budget Committee will be considering repatriating the estimated 60 percent of the nation's 3,396 tonnes of gold reserves held outside the country (mostly in New York) amid increasing nervousness amongst the public and elected officials that central banks' balance sheets have become dangerously overextended.

    ,, good luck getting anything that might be left away from New York.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:26 | 2425878 hornster
    hornster's picture

    Dollars, bitchez.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:34 | 2425893 Memphis10
    Memphis10's picture

    The good ole' "I own everything so I'm a genius when one thing goes up" "It'll come back" and "Become a farmer so I don't have to compete against you" act. I don't have much time for Rogers. I live in a 5000 person farming town and the banks (no not ze rotchchilds omgz iluminati, just small savings & loans) have the farmers by the balls.

    PS Bernanke won't even be there under Romney, food for thought.

    Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:56 | 2425916 GoinFawr
    GoinFawr's picture

    The Banks will still have you all by the balls, food for thought.

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