Is Ron Paul 2012's Black Swan?

Tyler Durden's picture

Courtesy of Bill Buckler of The Privateer

The Great Non Debate

For five years, the writing on the wall has been crystal clear. As 2007 began, the US Foreclosure Market Report for 2006 showed that foreclosures for the year had reached 1.2 million, an increase of 42 percent over the 2005 figure. In early February 2007, in the midst of a growing rash of bankruptcies among small US sub-prime mortgage issuers, New Century Financial announced that it was “recalculating” its “profits for the previous three quarters. New Century was one of the three biggest mortgage brokers in the US. In two days, its stock price dropped 40 percent. Six months later, President Bush was calling the now obvious collapse in the US real estate market a “blip” on the US economy. Two months after that, the stock market peaked. A year after that, in September/October 2008, the global economy froze solid and was only thawed by the biggest explosion of money creation in history. Now, here we are at the start of 2012. Nothing has changed. No positive steps have been made. The symptoms have been disguised under an avalanche of palliatives but the disease continues to eat away at the substance of the system on which it feeds. The major effort of government and “mainstream” analysts everywhere has been to avoid, deflect and actively silence any nascent discussion of the root of the problem.

The root of the problem is perfectly illustrated in the fact that since August 1971, the funded debt of the US government has risen from $US 400 Billion to $US 15,236 Billion. The severity of the problem is illustrated by the fact that with Mr Obama having yet to complete his third full year as President, he has presided over $US 4,600 Billion (or almost one-third) of that increase. The root of the problem is the abandonment of money - the final legal connection between Gold and the US Dollar was ended in August 1971. The severity of the problem is the grotesque expansion of what has taken its place.

None of this has been or is being discussed because the establishment in the US and everywhere else does not want it discussed. A REAL “black swan event” - an event that deviates by 180 degrees from what is “normally expected” - would be a political debate over root causes and basic principles. The great merit of Ron Paul - and the great service he is giving to his own and every other nation - is the fact that he is doing everything he can to raise the debate to that level. That makes Dr Paul a unique politician, a man who tells people what most of them DON’T want to hear or understand.

Or at least they don’t think they want to understand it. Dr Paul’s great and merited attractiveness to a growing number of admirers has a very simple source. He is that rarest of creatures - a FREE man. He is beholden to nobody. He has developed his ideas and his convictions over a long and fruitful life of independent thinking. He does not compromise. He homes in on the fundamental issue and principle of any political issue and serves it up without salt or other “seasoning”. He says what he means and he means what he says. He is the living embodiment of the “dream” that most Americans have long since given up on as they saw it slip further and further beyond their grasp. He is the only prominent person who is doing everything he can to turn the non-debate which masquerades as the “mainstream” in the US and global political economy into something of substance. That, far more than the presidency, is his goal.

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gbresnahan's picture

What can we do to get this man elected?   I usually feel like we're preaching to the choir.

tarsubil's picture

Ron Paul's ideas are inevitable because the basic call for justice is something that predates him and is far greater than him. People will wake up. It is our choice if we want to do it now or wait another 1000 years. And so, worry about spreading the ideas of real freedom and justice more than getting him elected.

mendolover's picture

Dr. Ron Paul is my choice.  But think about this one:

1.Nixon lost the election in 1960. Nixon stands down in 1964 as Goldwater is finally
given his chance.
2.Nixon returns in 1968.
... 3.Reagan wants the nomination in 1976. Stands down for Ford.
4.Reagan is rewarded for being a good soldier with the nomination in 1980. GHWB stands down.
5.GHWB is rewarded for being a good soldier with the nomination in 1988. Dole stands down.
6.Dole is rewarded for being a good soldier with the nomination in 1996.
7.W gets the nomination in 2000. McCain stands down.
8.McCain is rewarded for being a good soldier with the nomination in 2008. Romney stands down.
9.Romney will be awarded for being a good soldier with the nomination in 2012.

Oh well.

Dr. Acula's picture

>Romney will be awarded for being a good soldier

The fly in your ointment is the fact that Romney never served in the military.


Caviar Emptor's picture

Good soldiers don't make anybody wealthy or powerful 

Clockwork Orange's picture

Free RP "r3VOLution" T-shirts.  Cover the shipping and it's yours.  A deal, after shipping, that can only be rivaled by Old Navy.  (Hat Tip Chinese Slave-workers and the USD peg).

The Alarmist's picture

int RepublicanPrimaries() {

char shill ;
bool ElectionsStillNecessaryEvil ;

Do {

cout << "Pick a shill: " ;
cin >> shill ;
} while ElectionsStillNecessaryEvil = true);

cout << "No matter what you do, you lose."
return 0;

StychoKiller's picture

Nice try, here's a version that would actually compile and run:

int RepublicanPrimaries( void )


    char shill[80] = { 0, };
    bool ElectionsStillNecessaryEvil = false;

    do {

    cout << "Pick a shill: " ;
    cin >> shill ;

    if (strcmp( shill, "Santorum" ) && strcmp( shill, "Romneylan" ) && strcmp( shill, "Grinch" ))

       ElectionsStillNecessaryEvil = true;

    } while (ElectionsStillNecessaryEvil == false);

    if (strcmp( shill, "Ron Paul" ) == 0)

       cout << "Thanx for giving the World a fighting chance!";


       cout << "Thanks for picking Evil, you Bonehead!";

    return 0;

GMadScientist's picture

Run-Time Check Failure #2 - Stack around the variable ' ElectionsStillNecessaryEvil' was corrupted.

Thanks for the sploit!

(and you could never pick anything but "Ron" with your "Ron Paul" for you)

dynomutt's picture

I'm not sure that code does what you think it does.


Please write out the pseudocode.

The Alarmist's picture

In any case, it still returns a big fat zero, which is precisely what we seem to get with every Republican primary cycle.

buckethead's picture

He is human. Not very awe inspiring as a speaker.

What he offers is truth, reason and sound logic.

It isn't bullshit charisma wooing the panties off breathless co-eds... It's much more important than any rock star candidate can muster.

Get haircuts at a barber, and suits at a tailor.

Be a little more serious when selecting presidents.

Ron Paul 2012

dark_matter's picture

People say he is not electable, I don't want to throw away my vote. They talk like you get credit or something for voting for "the winner", like it's a game show or dancing with the stars or your favorite football team. Too much TV I guess.

AgShaman's picture

Yeah....most Americans are sycophantic nutless wankers in that regard. They've been programmed by Pavlov to chase after the good looking movie star types....vs....thinking for themselves and reasoning out the issues put forth and substance, rather than who's most attractive in a suit. They know it's a popularity contest and they are voting for the best looking actor....they just can't help themselves....being locked in their low self esteem prisons of Hollywood worship.

SilverIsKing's picture

The, "I'm not voting for xxxxxxx because he has no chance of winning."

Yes, this is common.

....and stupid.

Clockwork Orange's picture

Don't be duped by that bulls**t.  

That is designed propaganda.

Romney (Fed-worshipper, Wall-Street butt-boy) is far worse.

Power in numbers.  See my earlier post.  They CANNOT win without us.  

Don't cower to that garbage MSM Faux tactic.  See Mike Kreiger's post from yesterday and you will read all you need to read to muster up the appropriate courage.

GMadScientist's picture

Tell him what he's won!

(a clear conscience?)

DaveyJones's picture

buckethead those are some nice campaign lines

HurricaneSeason's picture

He wants to cut $1 trillion from the budget next year. What are the odds of that happening? It he could pull something out of his magic bag of tricks to accomplish that, he could just as easily do it as a congressman during the last couple decades. What he says makes sense, but that's about as far as it goes. Even if he cut $2 trillion out of the budget next year, that doesn't mean things would be any better in 5, 10 or 20 years, it just means it'll be bad next year. It'd certainly be a black swan if he refuses to increase the national debt after getting elected.

The Monkey's picture

If you really look at the details of Ron Paul's plan, much or most of the cuts are achieved by downsizing the executive branch and reducing military operating costs.  Since the decisions to spread our troops all over the world have been made by the executive branch, they can mostly be unwound by a new president.

Clockwork Orange's picture

How F*k up can you get by cutting government?  

For example, if you lay off 23 of the 28+ staffers to Michelle Obama, maybe they would do something that is productive, instead of leaching taxpayers.

Maybe the next Aunt Annies, Cheryl's Cookies, or even Steve Jobs perhaps.

End the lunacy.


HurricaneSeason's picture

The bankers and military contractors aren't likely to be in favor of closing a significant amount of military bases and they own the congressmen that are elected to come up with the military budget. The banks probably like alot of upheveal for plundering. The insurance companies keep us wearing our seatbelts and the banks will keep the bases and wars going, even if Ron Paul would get elected.

MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

That's the rub.  In fact, by cutting the federal budget things would be much, much worse for the 20 million Americans that work for our central government, and their families, and all the lower salaried employees that feed off those fat government salaries via trickle down.


But that's really the fundamental debate centered around Ron we want to be a centrally planned nation dominated by a massive bureaucracy that is better paid than everyone else?  Do we want to live in that sort of regimented, hierarchical system?  All signs point to yes.  As I am fond of saying, Americans desire material comfort and physical safety, not liberty.  A government jobs provides both, first via a nice fat salary with awesome benefits, and second via the psychological notion that you are "part of" the government and therefore have nothing to fear from its ever increasing power.

The Monkey's picture

Not entirely true.  If you step back and really parse Paul's plan, it's a lot more humane than you would think based on the headline numbers.  It's a different strategy than what was pursued in Japan, but it is well thought out.  I'm hoping we get to this part of the debate, because it is the opposite approach to what Krugman and Roubini advocate. 

dark_matter's picture

We will never get to that part of the debate as long as people like Stephanopolos (sp) are asking the questions. They mostly try to get the candidates to fight, not to talk about issues or their plans, because fighting makes for better sound bites.

Sizzurp's picture

I agree, that little weasel stephanopolus is nothing but a democratic shill posing as a journalist.  His questions were nothing more than thinly veiled political attacks designed to distract and misdirect away from the issues.  I wish Paul would have called him out as part of the problem right there in front of everyone.  I guess I can take solace in the fact that he sees Paul as a serious threat to his socialist utopia, yeah the one that is 15 trillion in debt with 100 trillion in unfunded liabilities.  The socialists from both parties have brought our once great nation to it's knees.  Paul, unlike anyone else up on that stage, stands upon the moral high ground, uncorruptable, un-buyable.  He may look a bit frail, but his ideas and courage stand like a tall tree, a tree of liberty that is there for all of us to take. Perhaps we are to far down the road to save, but I am not ready to walk away.  The time is now for patriots to lift this man up and take our country back. 

Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

You mean George Step-on-all-of-us?

Freddie's picture

Also a lot more humane that the alternative of bankruptcy and SHFT.   We could cut everything across the board by 20% and the pain would not be that great.  Useless CD paper pushers making $120,000 being a clerk getting cut by $24,000 a year to $96,000. 

GMadScientist's picture

Woohoo...let's make the recession worse while still leaving a > $600B deficit.

You're smoking crack if you think any clerk who hasn't been working since the FDR administration makes that kind of coin.

Fiscal discipline requires intelligent cutting not your non-solution, across-the-board stupidity and ass-umptions.

nevadan's picture


Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
H. L. Mencken
fnord88's picture

Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.
H. L. Mencken My favourite

AUD's picture

Yes, that is a good one. Hoist the black flag, the piracy game needs more competition.

ToNYC's picture

Being tempted is good, the picture is clear; succumbing to it makes you its bitch. All pirates are cannibals in the end; every day is Thanksgiving, but eventually you end up the turkey.

mind_imminst's picture

"All signs point to yes". It is depressing but gets to the heart of the matter. Probably by design, politicians keep increasing the level of dependency. This keeps them in power. More than 50% of the country is now dependent on Big Gov for their food, livelihood, etc... It is a terrible sign for liberty. Ron Paul wants to turn this around, but trimming the budget is only part of the challenge. The other part is convincing the dependents that their lives will eventually be more fulfilling by being productive, supporting themsleves, and finding a purpose in life. Dependency can be like an addiction. You get trapped by it. It will be very difficult to change this attitiude in the U.S. While I wouldn't mind seeing Ron Paul as Prez and trying to turn this around, it is more likely we will be stuck with another psycopath, eventual collapse, and revolution. I am afraid it will get ugly.

Libertarian777's picture

and why wouldn't they be?

if federal income taxes were abolished it would be the equivalent of a 25%+ pay rise for all working americans.

I could instantly spend another couple grand a month on frivolous things and still save more.

I could send my kids to private school, I could hire private tutors for them.

I could donate more money to charity to help those who need assistance.

Best of all, no middle-man federal bureacrat has to take a slice off the top in between, and I get to say where my money gets spent. And make damn sure that the people I spend it with are providing me with a good service or if its charitable contribution, making damn sure they don't waste that money.

So please explain to me how, if all private sector workers' incomes went up 25% that things we be 'worse'. Sure do-nothing federal employees would be unemployed, but Apple will need more people to sell their iPads since I could buy 4 a month extra.

StychoKiller's picture

Spending can also be cut by VETOING every spending bill that Clowngress comes up with UNTIL they really cut spending.

GMadScientist's picture

Oh, you don't know they can (and will) override his veto, if necessary, to make the spice flow?

You people really misunderstand what the executive branch can and can't do on their own.

Kennedy was capped for less and they almost managed to oust Clinton for his cock.

How long would Paul last with the "veto everything" routine, jack? C'mon...



disabledvet's picture

This thing's winding down. Romney wraps it up for all intents by South Carolina. "Sealed with kiss" by that hottie it Little Nickey?...anywho the so called "right wing" simply devoured itself. It was kinda entertaining actually. The real...shall we call them games?...begin now. And it ain't rhetoric but events that are going to lead this "thing" straight thru to November.

MarketWatchTerrorist's picture

I'll write in Ron Paul's name in my own blood on the ballot if I have to.  That'll be the last ballot I ever cast, as an American, anyway.


And Obama will coast to re-election due to 5% of the popular vote going to Ron Paul.  Which is irrelevant because Romney would be identical to Obama anyway.