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Is Ron Paul Taleb's New Black Swan?

Tyler Durden's picture


While he does have some new philosophy (at X% off MSRP of course, coming to a Kindle near you) to preach, Nassim Taleb's re-emergence from the darkness of the media spotlight starts with a bang: "I realized that something wrong is going on, and only one candidate 'Ron Paul' seems to have grasped the issues and is offering the right remedies". He was given quite a lengthy period to proselytize as he outlines the Big Four problems he sees with the USA (and for that matter the world): Deficits (metastatic governments), The Fed, Militarism, and non-Bailouts (what is fragile should break early). As Ron Paul notes, "It's an illusion that the USD can bailout the world", Taleb makes many interesting, though a little murmur-some for our liking, points like "you don't gamble with hyperinflation" and his comparison between the US and the Soviet Union will surely raise some headlines as he rants of the growing divide between public and private employees standards of living, our "need to do something drastic about it" and on Obama/Government and deficit reduction that "the whole thing is rotten".


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Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:25 | 2250646 sabra1
sabra1's picture
I Have No Choice but to Own Stocks: 'Black Swan' Author

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:28 | 2250664 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Monorail!  Monorail!!  Monorail!!!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:29 | 2250673 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

VERY interesting I did not hear Taleb say anything about gold.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:40 | 2250685 Manthong
Manthong's picture

this too..

I don’t care about [Ron Paul's] chances. I support him. We have no other solutions. It is my duty as a citizen and as a taxpayer who doesn’t want to be hoodwinked in the long term by bureaucrats."

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:45 | 2250729 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Listen doofuses, and listen good.

the REPUGNICON PARTY and the repugnicon party ALONE decides who its candidate will be.  Anyone with a fkin BRAIN knew that it had decided AB INITIO that this person WOULD NOT be Ron Paul.  There is nothing you can do about this.  Voting will not matter.  The GOP will not have him as their candidate.  End of story.

And, the Demoncrap AND Repugnicon parties CONTROL who will be elected President at the present time.  Until and unless additional parties emerge with the CLOUT to FORCE the MSM to televize them with the same coverage as the orthodox parties, nothing will change.  There is NO HOPE through the conventional process to effect a candidacy that is outside of the set of candidates the national Parties will permit.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250737 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Vote with a bullet, or vote with your feet. Everything else is masturbation.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:48 | 2250749 French Frog
French Frog's picture

That's got to be a swan in a very light shade of black if indeed Ron Paul hasn't got any chance of being chosen by the GOP

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:19 | 2250870 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

DIEBOLD will make sure Ron Paul doesn't get elected.  End of story.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:28 | 2250897 redpill
redpill's picture

There's a reason that once people pick Ron Paul they don't change their mind again.  It takes awhile for people to wake up and see the truth of the economy and empire of the western world.  But once you see that truth, you can't un-see it, and you have no choice but to support one of the very few people in politics that is making any sense at all.


And it's obvious when those that haven't figured out complain about trivialities about him, "oh I wish he was younger and better looking" or "why won't he just promise to support whoever the Republican Party nominates" - some people are going to be stuck in the matrix until it ends.


And these idiot media people think that at the end of the day Ron Paul can say a few words and all of his supporters are magically going to support Romney or Santorum in the general election.  They are absolutely clueless and have NO IDEA what is going on and why people are so dead set on Ron Paul.  This is not just an election for the Ron Paul Revolution, it's a movement, and it is not a season of American Idol that ends in the fall.  It's a hope to secure liberty for future generations.  Ron Paul is garnering more votes by orders of magnitude compared to 2008, and so many of these media fools thinks it's only about the elections this year.  Month by month, the cracks in the oligarchy power structure grow as they slowly lose control of their giant pyramid scheme.  At some point the masses will awaken and realize this is not the way.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:59 | 2251030 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Trav, as you so subtlety and discreetly opined: “There is NO HOPE through the conventional process”.

Agreed..  and  It isn’t about who wins anymore,  it’s about making a statement because all of the others will obtain the same result with only minor differences.

Obama, Romney, Gingrich..  same difference.

So if you are a citizen and a patriot, it is your duty to vote for the only candidate who would uphold the Constitution.

I don't agree with all of Dr. Paul's positions, but he is the only genuine choice - everyone else is a railroad to continued dysfunction.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:10 | 2251331 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

There is NO HOPE through the conventional process”.

Thats what South Carolina decided when Lincoln refused to remove his occupying Northern troops from Ft. Sumter. 

Ron Paul knows that the vast majority of the people have to come to the realization that the Republicans cannot offer the solution anymore that the Dems.  The solution has to come from a new constitutional party lead by the likes of the Pauls, Napolitano, Lew Rockewell, etc.  But first the sheeple have to be soo disgusted with the status quo to overcome public unions, welfare queens, and food stamp bottom feeders. A Romney nomination will not suffice.  Fluke doesn't do it.  Maybe war.  How about dollar collapse before the election and a flight to gold?  Ron Paul could sit back and say "I told you so".

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 23:36 | 2252947 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

I predict there will be a significant uptick in sales of "Don't blame me, I voted for Ron Paul" bumper stickers over the next few years.  All that is left to do now is to prepare for the collapse.  Beans, bullets, band aids and bullion.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251237 _underscore
_underscore's picture

Yes, as a non-American 'observer' here that's what struck me too. Being asked to support the likely winner seemed to me, in reality,  like asking the Republican candidate to start supporting the Communist candidate, but to the MSM it's as if it were just the difference in hair-style or hug-ability index that separates them. The MSM pundits/commentators either really don't get it, or they don't want others too - maybe both.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | 2251250 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



"But once you see that truth, you can't un-see it..."

Indeed.  For the most part.   Sometimes.   Sometimes.

"How many fingers, Winston?"


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:31 | 2251457 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

Nicely framed, redpill.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:30 | 2250906 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A must read on the brilliance (I don't use that word often) that Taleb possesses, for those who have not been fortunate enough to have read it before:


gladwell dot com - Blowing Up
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:56 | 2251010 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

msn will cover the party if the party starts shooting aka killing some fucking bankers politicians and the like fuck gabby giffords yeah i said it so fucking what i dont see them crying when anyone else gets shot in the head point blank like babies sleeping in their mother's arms some hardcore piper is gonna hit this here shithole country mean reversion is a bitch aint it

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:10 | 2251074 putaipan
putaipan's picture

since ron paul's future is a foregone conclusion... would someone please

help in rallying  the paulster's and the occupier's to the rocky

anderson /justice party. in an obama/santori-omney election that would

not be a 'wasted' vote.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:23 | 2251133 overbet
overbet's picture

If hackers support Ron Paul and Diebold can be hacked why cant we see Ron Paul elected?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:22 | 2252230 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Troll Magnet said:

DIEBOLD will make sure Ron Paul doesn't get elected.  End of story.

Diebold is just a new twist on an old game.

Edward G. Robinson as Chicago mobster Johnny Rocco:

"I take a nobody, see, teach him what to say, get his name in the papers, pay for his campaign expenses. Dish out a lot of groceries and coal, get my boys to bring the voters out, and then count the votes over and over again 'til they added up right and he was elected."


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:38 | 2250957 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Soap box = tried and failed

Ballot box = tried and failed

Jury Box = tried and failed (the criminals don't even make it to court)

Ammo box = next up

They know it too, hence TSA checkpoints, federalized municipal cops, Gunnrunner, UN small arms treaty, domestic drones etc.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250743 resurger
resurger's picture

fuck you Trav, but i have to say you are right on this one...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:11 | 2250844 Rahm
Rahm's picture

^^ That right there is FUNNY!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:53 | 2251013 fuu
fuu's picture

"fuck you Trav"


Could have stopped right there really.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:10 | 2251078 trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

haha, my sentiment exactly.  there is STILL HOPE though... brokered convention.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 20:16 | 2252411 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Brokered convention = Jeb Bush!

So said Henry (kissass) Kissinger in a reported promise the Red Chinese prime minister back in January!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250744 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I agree, but let's substitute all parties with the term, "DIEBOLD"; it will make the charade easier to explain.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:04 | 2250816 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Diebold is there, just in case.  They would only need to use it once.  From that point forward there wouldn't be a vote.  Just my opinion, of course.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:44 | 2250980 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

great video.  People should watch until the end.  Thanks for sharing it.  

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:38 | 2252820 Financial Newbie
Financial Newbie's picture

Uhhh... sorry, not to be a troll, but this video is garbage.


@ 1:57 - narrator identifies that 601,166 total votes were cast

@ 2:05 - "do the math"; narrator identifies a sample size of 2381 votes


So, it's been awhile since I took statistics in university, but I do remember hating to have to calculate confidence intervals and Type I / II errors (ugh).


Please go here:

Select 95% confidence level and "2" for your confidence interval.  This will give you a calculation that suggests for 95% of the time your outcome will be within 2% of what you've predicted.


Now enter 601,166 for your population, then click "Calculate".

You should get an sample size of 2391 - pretty damn close to the sample size that the MSM is using and what this video tries to suggest would be "impossible" for figuring out who won.


I root for Ron Paul and I despise the MSM and both the Republican & Democratic parties... but unless:

  1. My math is really bad (very possible)
  2. US voters don't fall under a regular distribution curve
  3. Edison Research is actively avoiding Ron Paul voters in their exit polls (possible)

I think this guy has no argument for rigged votes.  That's not to say the vote isn't rigged - it totally could be.  But his argument seems to be flawed do to his lack of understanding of math / statistics.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:13 | 2250848 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

"There is nothing you can do about this."

That's just wrong and spreading this defeatism is playing into the hands of the Repugnicons and Demoncraps.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:15 | 2250856 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you're the type that pounds nails with his forehead, aintcha?

Right, right, stay positive and all that shit

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:19 | 2250872 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

It's not staying positive. If you perhaps knew the process, you'd see the obvious fact that it is possible to make a difference. Just show up. It isn't complicated or difficult.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:35 | 2250938 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You are wrong. It is not possible to make a difference playing by the rules of the game, because the PTB change the rules to suit them. That is just fact. If you are a regular here, you should know this already.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:39 | 2250960 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

No son. Have you learned nothing from history?

As a freedom fighter myself, when you confront them directly for their wrongs, as Ron Paul is doing - it forces them to change. Eventually you back them into a corner and they are defeated.



Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:43 | 2250972 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Trav's original argument is that Paul will never be the Rep nominee as in it is impossible. If the argument is that people are too stupid to make him the nominee or that it is impossible for him to win a presidential election, that's another thing. But it isn't impossible for him to win the nomination of the Republican party. It is unlikely but it isn't impossible.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:48 | 2250999 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Whatever. It will not happen, therefore it is impossible.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:08 | 2251063 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Considering you have no clue how the process works, you saying it won't happen amounts to nothing.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:33 | 2251176 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Considering that you don't know jack shit about what I know, what you say means jack shit.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:49 | 2252323 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I do know that your dumb faggoty piece of shit ass has demonstrated on here that you don't know shit.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:04 | 2252559 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

LOL Tough guy, aren't you. I can't help but laugh. What exactly are you doing to beat TPTB, huh? I voted for Ron Paul in my state's primary. I contributed to his campaign. I've read his books. But I also know it doesn't mean shit because TPTB will get their man, and it doesn't matter if it's Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, or Obama. They will pull the strings and the president will dance. So, what are you doing, tough guy? Give me some pointers, with your all-knowing wisdom. If you can't do that, then just shut the fuck up.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:26 | 2252621 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Thank you for voting and contributing.

What you do really depends on your state.

Generally, all you have to do is show up at the conventions and motivate others to show up.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:02 | 2252720 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I've been pimping Ron Paul since 2008. I talk with people about his policies every chance I get. I get laughed at for it, alot, but I don't care. I believe in his message. I believe in liberty. I believe in the Constitution.

Ironically, RP not getting the nomination and not getting elected is probably the best thing that can happen for his movement. He would not be able to prevent the inevitable global economic catastrophe that is coming, we're beyond the event horizon, so his policies would likely be blamed. With any luck, enough people who understand his message will survive to carry it forward for the rebuilding effort.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:21 | 2252738 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Getting the nomination will go a long ways for getting the message out and laying the intellectual foundation for a rebuild. I think that is why Ron wants to get it so bad through delegates and that is why I give a shit about it.

You know, I have to say, I find it curious you didn't know about the delegate process considering Ron's campaign contacted all donors about it. And you are a donor by your own honest admission. How odd. I'm sure it isn't that you are just completely full of shit. Can't be.

Although, perhaps pimping would be more effective. Ha, they'll laugh but I don't care. I'm a free spirit and I don't play by the rules like getting out of my mom's basement. Those people wouldn't laugh if they were sitting across the table from me! No! Haha! I'm awesome and don't care about anything.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:39 | 2252825 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

LOL You're a fool. By the way, I have my own basement. Your ignorance in talking about someone's family will get you in trouble, but I'm sure you don't do that in person, because you'd get popped in the mouth. Like I said before, you don't know shit and you keep proving it. Not only that, but you're a pussy.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:47 | 2252849 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

"By the way, I have my own basement."

That is so cool that they let you call it your own.

Hey, thanks for confirming the 'you're full of shit' hypothesis. Good to know.

"Not only that, but you're a pussy."

You cut me real deep, dawg. Real deep.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:01 | 2251307 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hence the "black swan" label.  It can't happen until it does, then it can never unhappen.

That doesn't mean I think he will win the nomination or the presidency.  But your comment is just REALLY ironic, given the title of the article.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:20 | 2251390 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

It can't happen until it does, then it can never unhappen.

That makes a lot of sense. And when the sun rises, it can never unrise. We could go on all day. The bottom line is, the voters don't elect anyone. If you still believe your vote counts, bless your little heart. It's a quaint notion, but it's also an illusion. There will be no change until there is blood in the streets. That's all I'm saying.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:23 | 2251403 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are comparing a one time event to a cylical one.  

Do you even know what the term "black swan" means?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:33 | 2251468 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Yes, I believe I do know what the term means. Thus, calling for Ron Paul to be the elusive black swan makes it not so. The irony is in the title, not in my post.

I also know that in reality, we do not elect our leaders, they are chosen for us. You can play with your delusion, but it will not change reality.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:38 | 2250951 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Trav is an idiot.

Ron Paul has already made a difference.  

The Republican Party (and Democrats too) as they stand today are dinosaurs. And you thank Ron Paul for waking us up. America is changing, rejecting war and big government. Let the thugs in the parties try to dicate to the American people who will be our leaders.  Eventually this would lead directly to an armed revolt.



Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:51 | 2251007 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

They ALREADY dictate to us who will be our leaders. Open your eyes, it's right here in front of us today. They do it through the MSM and the party machinery. Wake up.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:09 | 2251072 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Hey, I tell you what, sitting around and whining like a little b**** won't make a difference. Try going outside once and a while.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:35 | 2251183 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Whining? I'm not whining, bitch, I'm calling it like I see it. You can pretend if you want, but I deal in reality. Why don't YOU go outside once in while. And shut the fuck up while you're at it.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:04 | 2251317 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

You are defeated before you even start.  What if George Washington had your attitude? We'd have lost the rebellion. 

As far as shutting up, take your own advice loser.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:11 | 2251347 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Defeated? You don't know shit. What I said was, you can't beat them playing THEIR game, because they change the rules as they see fit. Maybe there is another game to be played? You're really obtuse, JLee. A closed mind is blind to new possibilities. And I do have to laugh at YOU calling me a loser. That's some funny shit. The tardness of it all.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:38 | 2251785 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Not obtuse at all.  You have to play their game, they set the rules as you pointed out. And that's the only way to beat them outside of taking up arms. 

I've been there and done it. Have you?  I don't think so.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:29 | 2252629 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Really the two parties have divided the political power between each other and fight over the winnings and who gets to sell out to lobbyists. It is just sitting there for us to organize and take it. That's what Ron Paul is doing with delegates. It is very much the nuclear option and the party people are shitting their pants.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:52 | 2252336 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You'd see more if you got out of your mom's basement. It is annoying to go out and actually do shit while some little whiny bitch says there is nothing you can do because, oh the big bad media gives me no choice. Boohoo. Why not grow a pair you little faggot? I know old ladies tougher than you. I bet a short skinny 76 year would woop your ass. Maybe that is why you're such a whiny little bitch.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 20:59 | 2252543 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You make a lot of assumptions, and your ignorance is showing. I never said I wasn't doing anything, but you assume that's what I'm saying. I'm not going to spell it out for you, if you're too ignorant to read between the lines. Now run along and play, big tough internet guy. Go expose your insecurities some more. You wouldn't be quite so cockstrong if we were sitting across the table from each other, I can promise you that.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:14 | 2252588 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

WTF? How would you like someone undermining all of your efforts saying they were impossible due to the MSM and party machinery? I'm sure you'd really appreciate it. Good luck with your plans.

"You wouldn't be quite so cockstrong if we were sitting across the table from each other, I can promise you that."

You haven't met me in person. Might want to do that before making promises.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:55 | 2252700 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm not worried. In my experience, anyone who talks like you do is just that. Talk. But it doesn't matter, we'll never meet, so you can sit behind your monitor and talk all the shit you want. All I'm doing is laughing. We're living in epic times, and the shit that's coming down is what is real. These verbal sparring matches don't mean shit to me, and neither do you.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:11 | 2252747 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

"These verbal sparring matches don't mean shit to me, and neither do you."

Hence, you don't reply.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:33 | 2252813 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Sure, why not? This is kind of entertaining. You amuse me. Like a clown.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:54 | 2252855 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I mean, come on. You're not even trying.

Honestly, your insults remind me of my 10 year old nephew. I bet you are just adorable when you get angry.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:04 | 2251321 falun bong
falun bong's picture

Who are these supposed "people" you speak of? The ones that stay on the couch eating Cheetos while their supposed government pursues endless war? Yesterday Obama said that the Afghani shooting "made him more determined than ever to stop the Afghan war." That statement is completely telling: he is either utterly lying, and wants to continue Perpetual War, or he is controlled by others who keep the wars going no matter what he has to say about it.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:45 | 2250735 resurger
resurger's picture

vote for Taleb as Ron's future economist

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:08 | 2250831 VulpisVulpis
VulpisVulpis's picture

Taleb is not an economist, and has the uttermost disdain for the 'profession'


If you read him you would know that.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:13 | 2250851 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

That sounds a bit like Hayek.  Have you ever read his lecture upon receiving the nobel prize in economics?  In my book, disdain for the profession would be my first requirement in selecting my economic advisors.  

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:09 | 2251070 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

> disdain for the profession would be my first requirement in selecting my economic advisors.  

Maybe you should also require that they actually be economists.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:29 | 2251154 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Like who... like Krugman?  I'm actually not a big fan of Taleb's... so this conversation is a bit pointless.  I'll acknowledge that the only book of his that I've read was his Black Swan book where he made the same point about 100 times with 100 different anecdotes.  The book would have had the same impact had it been 20 pages.  I feel the same way about Thomas Friedman, only I disagree with most of what he writes, unlike Taleb.  As for economists... assuming that most economists come to be economists by virtue of their education, there aren't many places that produce an economist with whom I would care much to associate.  Maybe George Mason?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:29 | 2251448 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Austrian Thymologists who Predicted the Housing Bubble

Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Beale, various dates; Blumen, 2002, 2005; Corrigan, tba; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; DiLorenzo, 1999; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, various dates, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008, 462; Rogers, 2005; Rothbard, tba; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2006D, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004, 2009, Undated; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:32 | 2250920 msamour
msamour's picture

That's why he'll be perfect for the job.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:53 | 2251014 VulpisVulpis
VulpisVulpis's picture

The point is: If it was offered to him he would 

1) laugh and turn it down

2) realize that although you heard/listened to him you did not understand his position

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:50 | 2250758 Popo
Popo's picture

Christ Nassim, will you fucking prepare for an interview?  This was a stutter-fest from one of the smartest cats in economics profession.   A+ content.   C- presentation.



Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:52 | 2251009 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

Hey Popo, I agree with it being hard to hang on to his words, but you are indeed rewarded for doing so.

AAA+ for the courage to speak to truthfully. The news presenter seemed stunned and really gave him a lot time.

Sharp minds like Taleb and Paul (who know what is truth) don’t come across as polished because they are real and not reading/speaking from a script or being fed what to say.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:01 | 2251310 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

aka the anti-teleprompter

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:05 | 2251045 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

He's not an economist.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:32 | 2251167 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Have you ever been to college?

When speaking, the number of ah's and um's are directly proportional to the perceived intelligence of the professor.

We had one that was worse than Taleb. One day a guy in class brought in a counter to totalize the ah's and um's. When he got to about three dozen the prof looked up and said "what's that noise?' Broke up the class.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 17:08 | 2251917 tsx500
tsx500's picture

how bout it .     i'd rather listen to Dick Clark recite Shakespeare .  

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:45 | 2250730 BigMike
BigMike's picture

Taleb said on Bloomberg last year that he doesn't like gold because the governments use gold as a reserve asset. He stated he liked 'metals' and 'farmland' previously. Silver and Platinum perhaps?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:55 | 2250781 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

He has actually stated a few times that he thinks future currencies will probably be gold based. 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:22 | 2250880 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Very bad idea to come out publicly and say that you own Gold BITCHEZ. None of us own Gold on this blog understood? We all threw it awy beacuse Bernanke told us it was a barbaric relic. If you have a inflation the worst thing is that many people know you have Gold. Have you guys noticed that General Wesley Clarck is on the board of Bullion international?


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:08 | 2251066 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture



A smart man tells... nobody, that they own gold.


Or Silver.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:31 | 2251461 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

At least they can tell us that they had a terrible boating accident.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:29 | 2250668 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Taleb is a decent guy with strong morals, unlike 99.9% of the financial industry. Apparently Blankfein tried to recruit him years ago to J. Aron, but Taleb brushed him off, because he knew Blankfein was a POS.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:34 | 2250682 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1  Nice piece of news.

I appreciate the way Taleb was out there warning the public about unforeseen risks.  And the fact that he came out on CNBC (a somewhat toxic environment, but they DID let him make his case, so kudos to them) apparently means he REALLY wants Ron Paul to win.  Ron Paul is the only one, IMO, who can save our economy.

Which does not mean that we cannot each help ourselves look out for our families on our own...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:42 | 2250717 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Nobody can save the economy.  Ron Paul is right person with whom to start over.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:48 | 2250746 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

Yeah. I support Paul like mad, but if the inevitable collapse happens under his watch Krugman and other such asshats will spend the next 25 years screaming LIBERTARIANISM AND PAULISM CAUSED THE COLLAPSE!

The ideal is that the collapse happens, people realise that it is the fault of Keynesianism and can kicking and money printing and deficits, etc, and we start over with Paulism.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:54 | 2250775 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

That is the challenge in supporting Paul.  I've always supported him... he was the first presidential candidate I ever voted for when he ran in 1988.  But, like you, I recognize what his presidency would create for the propagandists.  I was active in 2008... I find it hard to be so now... not that anything was any less inevitable in 2008... I just didn't realize it at the time.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:05 | 2250971 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

When the Nazi's collapsed did anyone listen to them anymore? Same with Nazi supporters like Krugman. No one will listen to them after the collapse.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:14 | 2251088 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

It's good to see he survived his big "treasury bonds are the short of the century" from a while back anyway.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:35 | 2250686 It was not me
It was not me's picture

I just bought a chunk of USD at Armada Markets. Risk asset prices will soon evaporate like MF Global client funds!!!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:07 | 2250824 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Fuck off, Ingmar. Go spam your crappy site somewhere else.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:44 | 2250726 resurger
resurger's picture

i dont know if i should close out my shorts and go long and be a sheep!!!!!

this is so confusing at this point O_0

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:03 | 2250809 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

If you're anything like me, the minute you close your shorts and go long, the DJIA will hit 600.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:09 | 2250838 resurger
resurger's picture

hahaha true ...  it always like that ....

hope the TBTB give a room to breathe at least, maybe with the ISDA meeting on the 19th

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:48 | 2251243 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Good work Taleb. Spot on the money again. Ron Paul is America's best shot right now. I'll support him to the end.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:26 | 2251431 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Best return from your investment is in stealing and robbing business. If the whole establishment is in this business than your investment is safe. That is what Nasim is saying IMHO.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:25 | 2250648 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

That "something wrong" is better known as the Coup of 1913.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:29 | 2250672 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What about 1860.  That to me is when we lost the Constitution.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:41 | 2250704 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

You and a lot of other people, my friend:

Some say the betrayal occurred long before even that, a theory that I have found to be not without merit.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:48 | 2250736 fuu
fuu's picture

My recent reading indicates that it really started within a decade of the founding. The Alien and Sedition Acts were pretty horrid.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:48 | 2250750 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

I blame Hamilton.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:54 | 2250774 fuu
fuu's picture

He sure loved those banksters.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:43 | 2250978 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture


"He sure loved those banksters."

British agent.

Aaron Burr didn't get to him fast enough!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:56 | 2250792 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I knew Hamilton, he was an enemy of mine.  You, sir, are no Hamilton!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:27 | 2250893 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

aaronBurr, VP under jefferson, was later tried for treason w/ chiefJusticeJohnMarshall presiding at the trial

some took unbrage, apparently, at him raising a private army to form, allegedly,  his own country, this one was so fuked up, already!

he got off tho;  this guy had so much lead in his pencil, if they'd hanged him, he prob'ly woulda parted the rope, BiCheZ!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:44 | 2250725 vato poco
vato poco's picture

I'da gone with 1803. Marbury v Madison - the one where the fucking lawyers "discovered" that fucking judges are the final arbiter of what can & can't be law, Congress and the people be damned. IOW, the guys who run the country.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:49 | 2251004 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture


Yeah, "Judicial Review".

It's long past time to re-define Judicial Review.

Even though, the last sentence in their opinion: "Laws that are repugnant to the Constitution are null and void". What happened to that one?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:20 | 2251116 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

they sniffed too much fiat pussy and went olefactory-dead on the Constituional vigilance rot?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:56 | 2250790 nevadan
nevadan's picture

Yes.  If you haven't read these two books they, confirm your hypothesis.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:37 | 2250926 grovernors
grovernors's picture

Not mention the war of 1812 in which the central bankers pillaged records in an effort to obfuscate IMO the workings of the then popular Titles of Nobility Amendment.  And if that wasn't enough the popular election of Senators via the 17th Amendment by definition turned the republic into a democracy and sidestepped the states right of checks and balance.

Many woes including the aforementioned may be argued against using MARBURY v MADISON stating that the Congress does not have the authority to fundamentally change the Constitution.  Sadly I dont think the majority have the stomach for such medicine.  Nor do I think it wise to argue for justice in the biased US franchise admiralty courts.

Only the true will of the people now bear enough strength to overcome what obstacles we see before us today.  Sadly the will of the people currently gives us the immoral State we live in today.  Only when people become aware of reality do people see that they hold their own chains thus unbiased education is critical.  Even bitter realities must be realized.

The only solution I pray to come is that we enforce upon ourselves the mechanism to eliminate corruption and that true and free accredited education be available globally wireless if possible.  Know this though you cannot have true free education while corruption still exists...

Im thinking these might help along that path.





Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:34 | 2250927 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

What about 1789. When we lost the Articles of Confederation. Constitutional Federalism has done absolutely not a damn thing to prevent this clusterfuck, on the contrary it laid the foundation for the endless federal usurpation, expansion, and depredations. This nation's doom was a consequence of the actions of the Congress of the Confederation from 1787 to 1789, culminating in the decreeing of the Constitution. And the rest is history.

Federalism is the enemy - many of the founders and framers understood this. Those who did not were apologists for and/or promoters of tyranny and we should freely denounce them as such.

(That being said, Ron Paul 2012. Rome wasn't destroyed in a day.)

Junk away.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:27 | 2250649 uno
uno's picture

Always get 'The video you are trying to access is unfortunately unavailable at the moment.' when it is critical of the Fed, never ever seem to get that problem when clowns like LIESman, Meyer etc. are praising TPTB.

The advertisment never has a problem showing.  I even go to CNBS site and same thing.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:25 | 2250653 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

I just wish Taleb wasn't so ackward in front of the camera.  Most who aren't full of shit are though.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:32 | 2250674 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



Sometimes being awkward on live camera is a plus but has its negatives on regular film.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:30 | 2250677 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Yeah, most of those people are actors rather than economics experts.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:12 | 2250842 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Soon will come a time in the U S A when it will be pitchforknomics and the economy will be measure in 9mm with a bell curve banna clip ,and 12 gauges  with a pump cycle of 6

Lets see how many wantabe economics experts put they'er face on T V on write a book.

Lies are up fuckers

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:53 | 2250768 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

It is amazing how the average citizen is drawn to better speakers to the point that they ignore the message, even to the point of harming their families they would normally defend without limits.

Smooth talkers have always had an advantage in winning elections, making a sale, and having memorable prom nights, despite any lingering pain they may inflict on those who listen.  

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:19 | 2250873 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Yep.  At least make the salesmen work for it...  weaseling their sales pitches into your life via befriending you, etc. and taking up a long term front.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:46 | 2251523 r00t61
r00t61's picture

Yes, we homo sapiens consider ourselves "intelligent," but somehow, smooth-talking sociopaths always manage to take control of the herd in some form or another.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:26 | 2250654 Conman
Conman's picture

Does he really need to stumble over every word? I uuuhhh mmmm uhhh..

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:45 | 2251227 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

English is his third best language.  We should cut him a little slack.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:26 | 2250655 cossack55
cossack55's picture

it seems his time in the darkness has allowed him to grow a brain.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:27 | 2250661 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture



Ya, and this Black Swan isn't getting any younger.    It could be one hell of a last swan song though.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:43 | 2250700 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

black swan is the magnitude, and duration of Israel-Iran war, and oil shock.

I assume the just-in-time supply chains are very sensitive to an oil shock.  Just-in-time supply chains underpin the global economy & the multinationals that make up the equity & credit market.


The interconnectedness of the just-in-time supply chain is very high. It'd be interesting to see what happens when nodes are taken offline, or deliver time interval bump up against edge cases, and how adaptive the supply chain topology is.

Petro-chemicals are @ the base of the supply chain, because they are necessary for making all kinds of  products.

The world hasn't experienced a major oil shock, and its effect on globalized supply chains..... yet.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:27 | 2250894 Jason_1sandal
Jason_1sandal's picture

A true black swan event is something unforeseen. Not even the 2008 crisis or ensuing credit crisis could be considered a black swan event, because many people saw them coming. If you can foresee an event happening even if it doesn't happen, or it does, it's not a black swan event. Read Nassim's book.....

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:16 | 2251095 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

black swan is another way of saying an event is unknown unknown.  War is a portal into the probalistic world of unknown unknowns.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:06 | 2250822 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe that is what the country needs. Somebody who knows this is his last chance to make a real differnence in the future of this country. Somebody who isn't going to be focused on the next election.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:27 | 2250662 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

"One candidate represents the right policies."

And those policies would mean the end of the financial brutalization of the average American. That's why the kleptocracy will do everything in their power to make sure he doesn't get elected.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:28 | 2250665 Sutton
Sutton's picture

The Getco Deathstar looms ominously over his shoulder as a warning to all dissenters.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:36 | 2250695 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

with the Wall-E future trifecta of WalMart, McD & Coke as the only things the po' need..  your managers will pay attention to Apple

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:31 | 2250680 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture


"Obama Caught on Open Mic....Ron Paul":

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:43 | 2250975 uno
uno's picture

even if it's not true audio, Iowa was obvious election fraud, Paul polled high and out of nowhere comes Sanatorium

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:35 | 2250690 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I like how the camera positioning is such that the golden arches, walmart and Getco appear on what use to be trade terminals nice and bright and clear for your subconscious to pick up  lol

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:36 | 2250694 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

There is only 1 real candidate .. Dr Ron Paul !!

Mit the dick ..Rick the Twit and Newt the Fruit are the illusion

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:13 | 2251355 ClassicalLib17
ClassicalLib17's picture

Mit the twit and Rick the dick,  there,  that's better.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 16:10 | 2251634 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture


you'er a poet and don't know it !


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:36 | 2250696 financialZarf
financialZarf's picture

Tangential, but so it goes: US vs. USSR.


Alexander Solzhenitsyn. He's supposed to stay stuff about gulags. Not the US. But, turns out, these quotes of his resonate: 


  • "In our country, the lie has become not just a moral category but a pillar of the State.”  (What was that official inflation numbers, did you just complain?) 
  • “I have spent all my life under a Communist regime, and I will tell you that a society without any objective legal scale is a terrible one indeed. But a society with no other scale but the legal one is not quite worthy of man either.”  (Some how, we seem to be both of these. Here's looking at you MFGlobal and the largest prision population in the world and the most lawyers per capita.) 
  • “The revolution is an amalgam of former Party functionaries, quasi- democrats, KGB officers, and black-market wheeler-dealers, who are standing in power now and have represented a dirty hybrid unseen in world history” (Dirty hybrid. Sadly, it's not just government sponsored cars.) 
  • “You only have power over people as long as you don't take everything away from them. But when you've robbed a man of everything, he's no longer in your power--he's free again.” (Here and abroad. Greece, you'll get there soon enough.) 



Bad sign. (Also, quotes were pillaged from the interwebs. Accuracy not guaranteed. But, hey, most people don't seem to care about that anyway, so....) 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:42 | 2250718 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The USSR was the first modern State and it has taken two global wars for other nations to catch up and copy it. The Second World War was about finishing off European Empires and preserving the USSR from destruction.

We ended up with a Military Industrial Complex and built a Financial-State Complex to go alongside

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250712 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

of the growing divide between public and private employees standards of living

Anyone know how much a police officer in Stamford CT makes?

In 2010 Conklin earned $274,988, including $107,688 in base salary, $57,214 in overtime and $46,394 in extra-duty pay.


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:47 | 2250745 vato poco
vato poco's picture

To say nothing of their solid-gold pensions. Ever notice how our Hero Cops *really* don't like it when the plebs dare to speak of cop pensions?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:04 | 2250755 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

If I recall the retired police chief will get something in the ball park of $300,000. per year.

Where can you get a pension like that in the private sector?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:42 | 2250716 Lost Wages
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:42 | 2250719 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

as a good democrat who follows all the "news" outlets that the progressive troll army allows i say this man must be racist....there thats about all we have. back to msnbc and damn that bush

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:43 | 2250720 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

holy throat clearing Taleb

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:43 | 2250723 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nassim's rent is due

so is slewie's, but his is hopefully at least 10X as much to "inspire him" to back a candidate for the kindle-garten class

probably can't hurt rPaul, tho, and this is so MSM it hardly fits here at all, so hopefully this is "vetted" by the rPaul4Prez campaign, which fits the "facts" here

go, ron, GO!


Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:50 | 2250756 onebir
onebir's picture

"Mostly finishing my new, er, my new work" Lol. 

When I found out NT likes fireside chats with David Cameron (aka the Arch-Bribee of Downing St) some of his sheen rubbed off.

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