Is Ron Paul Taleb's New Black Swan?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While he does have some new philosophy (at X% off MSRP of course, coming to a Kindle near you) to preach, Nassim Taleb's re-emergence from the darkness of the media spotlight starts with a bang: "I realized that something wrong is going on, and only one candidate 'Ron Paul' seems to have grasped the issues and is offering the right remedies". He was given quite a lengthy period to proselytize as he outlines the Big Four problems he sees with the USA (and for that matter the world): Deficits (metastatic governments), The Fed, Militarism, and non-Bailouts (what is fragile should break early). As Ron Paul notes, "It's an illusion that the USD can bailout the world", Taleb makes many interesting, though a little murmur-some for our liking, points like "you don't gamble with hyperinflation" and his comparison between the US and the Soviet Union will surely raise some headlines as he rants of the growing divide between public and private employees standards of living, our "need to do something drastic about it" and on Obama/Government and deficit reduction that "the whole thing is rotten".

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Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:25 | 2250646 sabra1
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I Have No Choice but to Own Stocks: 'Black Swan' Author

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46718912

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:28 | 2250664 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Monorail!  Monorail!!  Monorail!!!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:29 | 2250673 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

VERY interesting I did not hear Taleb say anything about gold.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:40 | 2250685 Manthong
Manthong's picture

this too..

I don’t care about [Ron Paul's] chances. I support him. We have no other solutions. It is my duty as a citizen and as a taxpayer who doesn’t want to be hoodwinked in the long term by bureaucrats."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46718912

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:45 | 2250729 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Listen doofuses, and listen good.

the REPUGNICON PARTY and the repugnicon party ALONE decides who its candidate will be.  Anyone with a fkin BRAIN knew that it had decided AB INITIO that this person WOULD NOT be Ron Paul.  There is nothing you can do about this.  Voting will not matter.  The GOP will not have him as their candidate.  End of story.

And, the Demoncrap AND Repugnicon parties CONTROL who will be elected President at the present time.  Until and unless additional parties emerge with the CLOUT to FORCE the MSM to televize them with the same coverage as the orthodox parties, nothing will change.  There is NO HOPE through the conventional process to effect a candidacy that is outside of the set of candidates the national Parties will permit.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250737 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Vote with a bullet, or vote with your feet. Everything else is masturbation.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:48 | 2250749 French Frog
French Frog's picture

That's got to be a swan in a very light shade of black if indeed Ron Paul hasn't got any chance of being chosen by the GOP

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:19 | 2250870 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

DIEBOLD will make sure Ron Paul doesn't get elected.  End of story.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:28 | 2250897 redpill
redpill's picture

There's a reason that once people pick Ron Paul they don't change their mind again.  It takes awhile for people to wake up and see the truth of the economy and empire of the western world.  But once you see that truth, you can't un-see it, and you have no choice but to support one of the very few people in politics that is making any sense at all.

 

And it's obvious when those that haven't figured out complain about trivialities about him, "oh I wish he was younger and better looking" or "why won't he just promise to support whoever the Republican Party nominates" - some people are going to be stuck in the matrix until it ends.

 

And these idiot media people think that at the end of the day Ron Paul can say a few words and all of his supporters are magically going to support Romney or Santorum in the general election.  They are absolutely clueless and have NO IDEA what is going on and why people are so dead set on Ron Paul.  This is not just an election for the Ron Paul Revolution, it's a movement, and it is not a season of American Idol that ends in the fall.  It's a hope to secure liberty for future generations.  Ron Paul is garnering more votes by orders of magnitude compared to 2008, and so many of these media fools thinks it's only about the elections this year.  Month by month, the cracks in the oligarchy power structure grow as they slowly lose control of their giant pyramid scheme.  At some point the masses will awaken and realize this is not the way.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:59 | 2251030 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Trav, as you so subtlety and discreetly opined: “There is NO HOPE through the conventional process”.

Agreed..  and  It isn’t about who wins anymore,  it’s about making a statement because all of the others will obtain the same result with only minor differences.

Obama, Romney, Gingrich..  same difference.

So if you are a citizen and a patriot, it is your duty to vote for the only candidate who would uphold the Constitution.

I don't agree with all of Dr. Paul's positions, but he is the only genuine choice - everyone else is a railroad to continued dysfunction.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:10 | 2251331 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

There is NO HOPE through the conventional process”.

Thats what South Carolina decided when Lincoln refused to remove his occupying Northern troops from Ft. Sumter. 

Ron Paul knows that the vast majority of the people have to come to the realization that the Republicans cannot offer the solution anymore that the Dems.  The solution has to come from a new constitutional party lead by the likes of the Pauls, Napolitano, Lew Rockewell, etc.  But first the sheeple have to be soo disgusted with the status quo to overcome public unions, welfare queens, and food stamp bottom feeders. A Romney nomination will not suffice.  Fluke doesn't do it.  Maybe war.  How about dollar collapse before the election and a flight to gold?  Ron Paul could sit back and say "I told you so".

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 23:36 | 2252947 FEDbuster
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I predict there will be a significant uptick in sales of "Don't blame me, I voted for Ron Paul" bumper stickers over the next few years.  All that is left to do now is to prepare for the collapse.  Beans, bullets, band aids and bullion.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:47 | 2251237 _underscore
_underscore's picture

Yes, as a non-American 'observer' here that's what struck me too. Being asked to support the likely winner seemed to me, in reality,  like asking the Republican candidate to start supporting the Communist candidate, but to the MSM it's as if it were just the difference in hair-style or hug-ability index that separates them. The MSM pundits/commentators either really don't get it, or they don't want others too - maybe both.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:49 | 2251250 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"But once you see that truth, you can't un-see it..."

Indeed.  For the most part.   Sometimes.   Sometimes.

"How many fingers, Winston?"

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:31 | 2251457 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

Nicely framed, redpill.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:30 | 2250906 TruthInSunshine
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A must read on the brilliance (I don't use that word often) that Taleb possesses, for those who have not been fortunate enough to have read it before:

 

gladwell dot com - Blowing Up
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:56 | 2251010 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

msn will cover the party if the party starts shooting aka killing some fucking bankers politicians and the like fuck gabby giffords yeah i said it so fucking what i dont see them crying when anyone else gets shot in the head point blank like babies sleeping in their mother's arms some hardcore piper is gonna hit this here shithole country mean reversion is a bitch aint it

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:10 | 2251074 putaipan
putaipan's picture

since ron paul's future is a foregone conclusion... would someone please

help in rallying  the paulster's and the occupier's to the rocky

anderson /justice party. in an obama/santori-omney election that would

not be a 'wasted' vote.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:23 | 2251133 overbet
overbet's picture

If hackers support Ron Paul and Diebold can be hacked why cant we see Ron Paul elected?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:22 | 2252230 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Troll Magnet said:

DIEBOLD will make sure Ron Paul doesn't get elected.  End of story.

Diebold is just a new twist on an old game.

Edward G. Robinson as Chicago mobster Johnny Rocco:

"I take a nobody, see, teach him what to say, get his name in the papers, pay for his campaign expenses. Dish out a lot of groceries and coal, get my boys to bring the voters out, and then count the votes over and over again 'til they added up right and he was elected."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACTkVM6t_bo

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:38 | 2250957 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

Soap box = tried and failed

Ballot box = tried and failed

Jury Box = tried and failed (the criminals don't even make it to court)

Ammo box = next up

They know it too, hence TSA checkpoints, federalized municipal cops, Gunnrunner, UN small arms treaty, domestic drones etc.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250743 resurger
resurger's picture

fuck you Trav, but i have to say you are right on this one...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:11 | 2250844 Rahm
Rahm's picture

^^ That right there is FUNNY!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:53 | 2251013 fuu
fuu's picture

"fuck you Trav"

 

Could have stopped right there really.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:10 | 2251078 trembo slice
trembo slice's picture

haha, my sentiment exactly.  there is STILL HOPE though... brokered convention.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 20:16 | 2252411 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

Brokered convention = Jeb Bush!

So said Henry (kissass) Kissinger in a reported promise the Red Chinese prime minister back in January!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2250744 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I agree, but let's substitute all parties with the term, "DIEBOLD"; it will make the charade easier to explain.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:04 | 2250816 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Diebold is there, just in case.  They would only need to use it once.  From that point forward there wouldn't be a vote.  Just my opinion, of course.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:44 | 2250980 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

great video.  People should watch until the end.  Thanks for sharing it.  

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:38 | 2252820 Financial Newbie
Financial Newbie's picture

Uhhh... sorry, not to be a troll, but this video is garbage.

 

@ 1:57 - narrator identifies that 601,166 total votes were cast

@ 2:05 - "do the math"; narrator identifies a sample size of 2381 votes

 

So, it's been awhile since I took statistics in university, but I do remember hating to have to calculate confidence intervals and Type I / II errors (ugh).

 

Please go here: http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

Select 95% confidence level and "2" for your confidence interval.  This will give you a calculation that suggests for 95% of the time your outcome will be within 2% of what you've predicted.

 

Now enter 601,166 for your population, then click "Calculate".

You should get an sample size of 2391 - pretty damn close to the sample size that the MSM is using and what this video tries to suggest would be "impossible" for figuring out who won.

 

I root for Ron Paul and I despise the MSM and both the Republican & Democratic parties... but unless:

  1. My math is really bad (very possible)
  2. US voters don't fall under a regular distribution curve
  3. Edison Research is actively avoiding Ron Paul voters in their exit polls (possible)

I think this guy has no argument for rigged votes.  That's not to say the vote isn't rigged - it totally could be.  But his argument seems to be flawed do to his lack of understanding of math / statistics.

-FN

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:13 | 2250848 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

"There is nothing you can do about this."

That's just wrong and spreading this defeatism is playing into the hands of the Repugnicons and Demoncraps.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:15 | 2250856 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you're the type that pounds nails with his forehead, aintcha?

Right, right, stay positive and all that shit

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:19 | 2250872 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

It's not staying positive. If you perhaps knew the process, you'd see the obvious fact that it is possible to make a difference. Just show up. It isn't complicated or difficult.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:35 | 2250938 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You are wrong. It is not possible to make a difference playing by the rules of the game, because the PTB change the rules to suit them. That is just fact. If you are a regular here, you should know this already.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:39 | 2250960 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

No son. Have you learned nothing from history?

As a freedom fighter myself, when you confront them directly for their wrongs, as Ron Paul is doing - it forces them to change. Eventually you back them into a corner and they are defeated.

 

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:43 | 2250972 tarsubil
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Trav's original argument is that Paul will never be the Rep nominee as in it is impossible. If the argument is that people are too stupid to make him the nominee or that it is impossible for him to win a presidential election, that's another thing. But it isn't impossible for him to win the nomination of the Republican party. It is unlikely but it isn't impossible.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 13:48 | 2250999 WonderDawg
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Whatever. It will not happen, therefore it is impossible.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:08 | 2251063 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Considering you have no clue how the process works, you saying it won't happen amounts to nothing.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 14:33 | 2251176 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Considering that you don't know jack shit about what I know, what you say means jack shit.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 19:49 | 2252323 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I do know that your dumb faggoty piece of shit ass has demonstrated on here that you don't know shit.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:04 | 2252559 WonderDawg
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LOL Tough guy, aren't you. I can't help but laugh. What exactly are you doing to beat TPTB, huh? I voted for Ron Paul in my state's primary. I contributed to his campaign. I've read his books. But I also know it doesn't mean shit because TPTB will get their man, and it doesn't matter if it's Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, or Obama. They will pull the strings and the president will dance. So, what are you doing, tough guy? Give me some pointers, with your all-knowing wisdom. If you can't do that, then just shut the fuck up.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 21:26 | 2252621 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Thank you for voting and contributing.

What you do really depends on your state.

http://youtu.be/Vi7yxEwgA2o

Generally, all you have to do is show up at the conventions and motivate others to show up.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:02 | 2252720 WonderDawg
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I've been pimping Ron Paul since 2008. I talk with people about his policies every chance I get. I get laughed at for it, alot, but I don't care. I believe in his message. I believe in liberty. I believe in the Constitution.

Ironically, RP not getting the nomination and not getting elected is probably the best thing that can happen for his movement. He would not be able to prevent the inevitable global economic catastrophe that is coming, we're beyond the event horizon, so his policies would likely be blamed. With any luck, enough people who understand his message will survive to carry it forward for the rebuilding effort.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:21 | 2252738 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Getting the nomination will go a long ways for getting the message out and laying the intellectual foundation for a rebuild. I think that is why Ron wants to get it so bad through delegates and that is why I give a shit about it.

You know, I have to say, I find it curious you didn't know about the delegate process considering Ron's campaign contacted all donors about it. And you are a donor by your own honest admission. How odd. I'm sure it isn't that you are just completely full of shit. Can't be.

Although, perhaps pimping would be more effective. Ha, they'll laugh but I don't care. I'm a free spirit and I don't play by the rules like getting out of my mom's basement. Those people wouldn't laugh if they were sitting across the table from me! No! Haha! I'm awesome and don't care about anything.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:39 | 2252825 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

LOL You're a fool. By the way, I have my own basement. Your ignorance in talking about someone's family will get you in trouble, but I'm sure you don't do that in person, because you'd get popped in the mouth. Like I said before, you don't know shit and you keep proving it. Not only that, but you're a pussy.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 22:47 | 2252849 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

"By the way, I have my own basement."

That is so cool that they let you call it your own.

Hey, thanks for confirming the 'you're full of shit' hypothesis. Good to know.

"Not only that, but you're a pussy."

You cut me real deep, dawg. Real deep.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:01 | 2251307 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hence the "black swan" label.  It can't happen until it does, then it can never unhappen.

That doesn't mean I think he will win the nomination or the presidency.  But your comment is just REALLY ironic, given the title of the article.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:20 | 2251390 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

It can't happen until it does, then it can never unhappen.

That makes a lot of sense. And when the sun rises, it can never unrise. We could go on all day. The bottom line is, the voters don't elect anyone. If you still believe your vote counts, bless your little heart. It's a quaint notion, but it's also an illusion. There will be no change until there is blood in the streets. That's all I'm saying.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 15:23 | 2251403 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are comparing a one time event to a cylical one.  

Do you even know what the term "black swan" means?

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