The Roof, The Roof, The Roof Is On Fire!!

Tyler Durden's picture

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I don't know what any of that means....

jcaz's picture

Berlusconi!  Welcome to the board!

valley chick's picture

sounds kind of "greek" to me...

Eally Ucked's picture

Don't worry they don't either, but it is the life of money, or maybe better term, paper pushers. For us idiots there are one message - there is no more new money and all those XOVER,Main,SOVX,LCDX,HY17,HYG and so on are just terms used by bookies.

schoolsout's picture

A little Drum n Bass to start this thread off....

disabledvet's picture

Let me "name drop" for ya: Harry Markopolos and "i'm probably only one of a few guys in the world who understands this stuff." He claimed "no one would listen"...and yet "the FB I paid him a visit and told him he should be afraid." Funny...apparently someone WAS listening! With the near collapse of the ability of the entirety of the Federal Government to finance itself perhaps they should have rephrased that. Anywho "it's still not our finest hour" as they say...but without Credit Default Swaps we'd all be dead right now. Now we will see how Europe does without them. They have a "system of finance" as well...and it seems quite complex. The oddity is that the strong euro tells us that their finances are far stronger than our own. Perhaps these CDS contracts were far larger than Mr. Tchir thought...but i doubt it. My first impulse is "this reaks of national socialism to me" and i have posted as such--and to think that Europe might think "people aren't watching"...well, let's just say no less than our President now understands the importance of this comment and has..."gained control of the message"...quite ably in my view. In public finance there's no such thing as a tough sell. To quote our friends from the South..."that dog don't hunt."

SkySavage's picture

It means the game has changed completely.  Term restructuring should be considered a "credit event", thus triggering payout on the soverign CDS's.  But somehow this is not happening (I must admit I don't understand how it cannot be happening). 

cowdiddly's picture

The E-trade Baby bought a shitload of CDSs. He can now sell and become the youngest ever Warren Buffet in diapers 

klwilly's picture

Jesus CHRIST.  How poor do us shorts have to get before we just have to give up?

boom goes the dynamite's picture

That is the fucking question of the day.

Stockspeare's picture

Shorted at the is clear to short now. Upside play is done. next time use stops. Holding a short up 2000 Dow points is dumb. I suggest you take up checkers- trading may not be your bag;)

Smiddywesson's picture

Poor bedside manner, but Stockspeare is essentially correct.  If you have a bias, and that bias is to short, then don't do it when retail is also short and especially when TPTB are desperate to perpetuate the system.  The market is completely and utterly fixed, and it has always been so, but that manipulation is more clear now then ever before.  The worse the news is, the harder they will push to keep the market up.  Using stops is good advice, but they won't protect you, so you have to go to options or reduce your position size. 

TPTB are going to hold up the market, change the rules, break the law, deny reality, spread rumors, and lie, lie, lie, until they get what they want.  They want their heads out of the noose and you to foot the bill.  That's not going to happen if the market crashes.  I'm not against shorting individual stocks, but I don't short this market. 

All your gold are belong to TPTBB 

i root for that fat jersey governor's picture

I started some shorts yesterday after being long for almost two weeks. you know what - got crashed and stopped out this morning. And you know what - I am not gonna try to stay in front of the train.

The debate should not be whether these EU moves are stupid or not (we know that, don't we), but which way the market will react to the news!!! That is how we can make (or lose) money. Who cares about how insane these german, french or italians are?? we should only care about our pocket.


klwilly's picture

who is the ASS that gave me one down?  i speak the truth bitch.  you don't like the truth GFY.  

azusgm's picture

Hope you aren't short BAC.

(Why can't that abomination ever die?)

alien-IQ's picture

If you're gonna short this market, it has to be intraday ONLY. Never ever ever ever leave an open position overnight...especially an open short position.

Today, for example, with a 300 point gap up in the DOW, I'm looking to go short at some point....but you can be damn sure I'll be out of all positions before the end of the day.

To hold any positions in this market over night (let alone over a weekend) is nothing short of playing with fire.

disabledvet's picture

"stick with Cramer." He's a bears best friend, too...if you listen.

Stockspeare's picture

Wrong. Now is the time to short and hold. Shorted at the open. Sell the news. The market manipulation is topped out for now. Hold for a nice consolidation and use stops to protect yourself.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'I remain bearish and doubt that this rally has much staying power since the plan doesn't actually fix anything, and it isn't even yet clear if it actually works in the near term.'

I'm not even sure what being "bearish" means anymore? I can't imagine any sell-off anytime soon...

alien-IQ's picture

Bearish, in todays market environment, simply means "I am not blind to the reality that this situation is FUBAR...and Central Bankers will do all they can to hide the facts and save their own kind".

ChitownTrader's picture

Bearish means "I was short last week and was hoping this would collapse this week, but now have to wait till next week until things settle down"

Lets be honest, when you highlight g3 gdp and make it seem like some type of settlement is resolved, things will rally a bit. There will need to be a couple days where there is a serious retraction considering we are almost at yearly highs.

The Axe's picture

Market wants to believe that it is March 2009 again, only a Europe event...The market could start a 9 month melt up,,,it could be a reply of FED invention in the US..that did not fix anything, but saved the bankers and careful...Cental Bank invention is destruction to a bears P&L

jcaz's picture

LOL- but not a 10 month melt up?


alien-IQ's picture

US Dollar in meltdown mode. Getting completely monkey-hammered.

Imagine my surprise.

The Euro problem is solved huh? Sure it is....

JohnG's picture

Plunging....waiting on gold to sky, why is it not?  Manipulation.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'US Dollar in meltdown mode. Getting completely monkey-hammered.'

DXY is heavily Euro-measured. It gives no real indication of market place selling of USD in my opinion except in relation to Eurozone.

The currency action is over in JPY...

haibop's picture

look at where gold goes now... cmo network

Gene8696's picture

Guess yesterday's timing to go Short S&P was bad? Oh well, move those into the medium term horizon column.. Or I'll see how weak I am?

This should be a fun two days.. Will be interesting to see how many longs stay in over the weekend. I just called in sick and busted up a dubbie at 7am. About to go long popcorn

LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Yes I added to my Dow shorts.... Ouch. But by short 30 year bond is making up for it 640 here on west coast. Just fired up 1st doob of the day. I'm staying short!

Gene8696's picture

To be honest, I have no clue as to what to expect. But short of needing to open the safe to buy a chicken for dinner, I'm happy watching for the next few days.

At some point the Madam Madof suicide attempt will be responsible for a market move.

paul_Liu's picture

Tyler, what about stocks?

azusgm's picture

Ha! At first glance as the headline, I thought the roof on fire was the copper roof.

myne's picture

We don't need no water, let the motherfuckers burn!

Burn motherfuckers, burn.

fonzanoon's picture

Yup. I have no idea what that means. I am short financials and long precious metals. As far as I can tell when the shit hits the fan I will probably break even. In the meantime I will focus on fantasy football.

TradingJoe's picture

El Shorto! NYMO @ much overbought levels!

Nascent_Variable's picture

So many questions - can the French banks handle a 50% haircut?  Can the ECB?  Is the downgrade of France now a foregone conclusion?  How are the German people reacting to all this, especially if there's a French downgrade?

Europe is such a mess.  It will be interesting to watch the last stand of the central planners, and especially to watch their exit strategies as it all starts unraveling.

Invisible Hand's picture


Not disagreeing with your comment in general but, an important detail: The ECB does NOT take a haircut!

How is that possible that private institutions "voluntarily" give up 50% of the value of an asset but a governmental entity gets par?

Do the banks have no fiducial responsibility to their shareholders to either get 100% or trigger the insurance (CDS)?

We are back to the era of absolute monarchs when the law is what the ruler says it is, nothing more nothing less.  Nothing matters now but survival of the ruling elite.  When Charles I tried this in 17th century, the English revolted and Charles eventually lost his head (literally).  I don't think that will happen today.  We will accept our serfdom and be grateful for the crumbs the powerful leave us. 


BigJim's picture

I agree. The rule of law appears to have finally left the building.

monopoly's picture

Holding short positions is dangerous when markets are broken and succumb to every headline. I am not chasing this and  will just sit and watch the circus. So they have an agreement in words, not actions yet. Anyone buying this is really gambling. But the party goes on.

Feel a lot safer with gold and miners.

jcaz's picture

It's disturbing that you don't realize you're contradicting yourself.....

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Anyone seen GRAHAM SUMMERS lately? I'm wondering how is wonderful crash indicator is holding up?

"Indeed, last week we got a confirmed SELL on my proprietary Crash

indicator. This is the SAME indicator that registered before the 1987
Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 collapse."

kito's picture

leave graham alone, he is tylers brother.

monopoly's picture

And none of the idiots even talk about US. We are next. But it is taking longer than most of us imagined. The tricks these politicians pull out of the hat are truly remarkable.

alexwest's picture

i'd like to look at list of counterparties in Greek CDS.. especially who sold ##cuking expensive CDSs, and

now lobbing to cancel them off...


what next... federal goverment cancells out commodities futures, currencies swaps . what next ?



Waterfallsparkles's picture

What I do not understand is why the Banks are up today.  Especially if the have to take a 50% hair cut and will not be able to collect on their CDS's.  I would think that the Banks would be down.