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    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Rosenberg On The 8 Areas Of Behavioral Change In 2012

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Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:16 | 1961089 Coke and Hookers
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He forgot some:

- Debt slavery

- Oppression

- Tyranny

- Social breakdown

- Rampant crime

- Civil wars

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:34 | 1961130 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

-And foreign wars

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:42 | 1961141 johnu78
johnu78's picture

Is this Rosenberg related to the Rosenbergs who stole the nuclear secrets in the 1950's?



Thu, 12/08/2011 - 21:46 | 1961461 Paladin en passant
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John, are you related to that "John" guy that tried to murder President Reagan to impress Jody Foster?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 22:24 | 1961536 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Wittiest response I have ever seen on here. Hands down.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 22:53 | 1961591 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

Now THAT... IS funny.  THNX

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:02 | 1961203 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

What do you call your unmanned military aircraft in foreign airspace? WAR.




China is going to reverse engineer them and sell it back to Iran so that they can fly US drone copies in US!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:07 | 1961219 Odd Ball
Odd Ball's picture

What do you call your unmanned military aircraft in foreign airspace? WAR.

WAR?  War is so 20th century.  It's an overseas contingency operation.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 21:16 | 1961392 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

"...War is so 20th century.  It's an overseas contingency operation."

It is an overseas peace seeking, freedom loving bullish for the world markets contingency operation.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 01:01 | 1961935 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

And remember the so-called "Mid East Peace Process"...hahahahahhahah

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:35 | 1962117 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

went the way of the sadat/begin, arafat/peres/rabin and obama nobel peace prizes.  

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:10 | 1961230 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ah yes, but what about the newly discovered planet Kepler-22b, with earth-like qualities? 

THere's a chance they could intervene. And Blackrock has an ETF for that 


Fri, 12/09/2011 - 08:05 | 1962236 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

No doubt, Blackrock is too late. Kepler - 22B has probably been claimed as 'intellectual property' by the astronomers that found it... Regardless of habitation by 'intelligent life' or not.

After a lifetime of watching human actions and interactions, I have concluded that there is little sign of intelligent human life on earth, and that this orb is merely a stage on which various human actors display their egos and, more rarely, their altruism.

Watch closely enough and the same egoistic tendencies can be found among the various other life forms that inhabit this ball. Leading me to believe that if any 'intelligent life' exists on Kepler - 22B they are just as fucked up as we are here... A possible reason SETI has yet to intercept a single message from life elsewhere in the universe. Although, it would be interesting to know what stage of the economic cycle the (possible) residents of K - 22B are currently experiencing... and, how badly their citizens are being screwed by their banking cartel and government (s).

"And here we are, with one thumb up our ass, a bag full of holes, and a big grin on our faces to pass the time of day"... Edmund Obrien



Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:35 | 1961131 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Am I the only one that noticed the charts are a bit biased "up and to the right"?

I thought Rosie was a deflationist!



Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:55 | 1961180 Vengeance
Vengeance's picture

By far and away the best comment on the thread so far!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:37 | 1961309 J 457
J 457's picture

And with QE, it suddenly becomes all bullish.  What a scam.  How big will this inflate before it pops....taking all pensions, 401k, and IRA's with it.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:23 | 1961098 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

What Rosy fails to understand is that deleveraging can only take place up until when depositors are about to lose their money. At that point, printing must ensue, or the fiat ponzi collapses (see 2008).

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:00 | 1962103 player333
player333's picture

Correct, the Fed will print it takes currency to kick the can and they will kick it and hope for a mircle as it rolls. Deflation will be smothered with fiat $.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:24 | 1961101 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

"Low overhead."

Got it!

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 04:38 | 1962120 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

two guys from harrison

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:24 | 1961104 rickson
rickson's picture

I just can't get onboard with the deflation outcome.

We have all these entitlements and wars raging on with an ever rising cost.  We can't pay for them as is the only way we'll be able to pay for them is to get some money from thin air.

I do see how the defaulting of debts that are leveraged and their corresponding derivatives imploding can be deflationary but it doesn't appear to be over-riding the growth in government spending.

Anyone care to convince me on what I'm missing?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:32 | 1961123 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Here's an example of why "printing" won't work. Government can't pay for food stamps out of tax revenues, so they print. The printing causes commodity inflation. Bread, which used to cost $3 a loaf, now costs $6 a loaf. The poor still can't buy bread, so they demand that the government increase food stamp aid. The more the government prints, the more bread goes up, the more the government has to print.

There is no free lunch or solution that comes from printing. Why is that concept so hard for people to understand?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:41 | 1961138 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Many ag commodities are now flat to negative for the year. There is tremendous deflationary pressure right now. Where the fuck did all that money go that was printed? That is the question.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:49 | 1961167 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Where the fuck did all that money go that was printed? That is the question.

Don't ya know? Wall Street, banks and other FIREs were like parched deserts waiting for the QE rain. The money disappeared into the sand within a nanosecond, all to keep the moribund Ponzi alive. Well, we can feel happy that at least the banksters are booking into all the elite winter resorts this month

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:12 | 1961237 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

banks are hoarding cash

corporations are hoarding cash


they know shit's now over yet.


war is coming.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:40 | 1961316 Nate H
Nate H's picture

there was about 200 billion that was actually printed (currency in circulation) in past 3 years. This is in relation to 60 trillion in 'what people think they own' (aggregate of financial claims in US). Sure you could make an argument that ALL 3 trillion on fed balance sheet was expansion of money supply (but it wasnt), but even that and we run into deflation relative to aggregate debt. the big debt deflation hasnt come yet - it will and soon - when policymakers realize they are hamstrung. Only after debts have devalued and been written off will govt truly print - and then we have hyperinflation - but big big deflation comes first. I could see gold at $1200 SP at 600 and oil at $40 within 12 months..then gold to $3000, sp to 1000 and oil to $100 (of course, thats if things stay linear)

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 21:06 | 1961370 fnord88
fnord88's picture

Yeah i broadly tend to agree, the problem is whether any gold or silver will be available for purchase. Here in Australia, we produce a shit load of gold considering our population. Last year orders took about 4 or 5 working days to be filled. My last order arrived yesterday, I paid on the 14th November.

Where the fuck is all our gold going?

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:52 | 1961341 Saro
Saro's picture

My guess (and I'm just now coming up to speed on this whole mess, so take this with a grain of salt):

The inflation exists, but is currently dormant.  From the beginning, global economic problems have been characterized by mainstream economists (read: hacks) as a global liquidity crisis, and so they started "easing" (read: printing) to try and restart the flow.  But because the issue is not liquidity but solvency, most of this excess cash has not hit the streets and resulted in higher prices as would normally be expected.  Instead, this cash eventually ends up being hoarded by banks who are desparate to remain afloat.  This has lulled the people at the printing press into a false sense of security, as they are not immediately seeing the feared after-effects of their QE binge.  Ironically, to the extent the crisis gets better (fat chance, I know) and banks decide to go risk-on again and start lending to the populace rather than holing up their money with the fed, I would expect this money to come boiling out of the bank vaults in short order.  

So if we avoid complete collapse, it might be that any recovery brings with it slight case of hyperinflation.  Damned if you do . . .

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:33 | 1961128 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

You are half right!

The way I see it is a super-massive tug of war. I mean, really epic forces. The consumer/economy rolled over (deflation) but the government is borrowing to replace the decline (inflation).

Something is going go give at some point, and its going to be crazy deflation time or crazy inflation time.

Consider what would happen if we got a RP presidency and the spending stopped. Inflation gets shut down and deflation wins. If the next president is sympathetic to spending, we get the inflation scenario. Maybe Benny hits the nuclear <CTL-P> button before then.

Who knows! No one! But we are going to find out really soon!



Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:41 | 1961139 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You are beginning to see Biflation, grasshopper

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:57 | 1961183 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

If you mean right now, yes, however I fully expect one force to "win" at which point it will be all inflation or all deflation.



Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:03 | 1961206 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That would certainly simplify things. There's a playbook for either one of those. There's no playbook for biflation and unfortunately I think that's what we're going to get

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 23:08 | 1961628 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I see. I guess I see it in more binary terms. The forces in contradiction are so epic in magnitude, I discount harmony between them as an outcome.

We will find out soon either way!



Fri, 12/09/2011 - 08:35 | 1962322 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Velocity of money is very low and velocity is as important as how much money is 'in circulation' ; ie, not being hoarded by banks and corporations on balance sheets. However, there is always some leakage from hoarders and this normally enters the Main St economy about 18 months after the printing episode is ended. So far, printing is continuing and interest rates remain near the zero bound... and the interest rates cannot be raised without destroying what is left of jobs and the economy... not to mention that every 1% rise in interest rates adds $140 Billion to yearly gov debt service costs.

What has been printed by central banks is a pittance compared to the amount of claims, in the form of derivative bets( ~ $700Trillion), that are hoovering above the real economy. In addition there is the entire shadow banking system to consider, unknowable trillions more of fiat equivalent.

If all of this paper experiences deflation we will see an event similar to a black hole sucking in all counter parties within gravitational reach. The counter party risks are off any chart one cares to draw and the amount of claims on real assets are equally enormous. The amount of 'printing' any government or central bank can undertake to off set such a deflation is miniscule, for faith in the paper would disappear long before enough new paper fiat/bonds are printed.

Rosanne Rosanna Danna: "What a mess"

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:47 | 1961161 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Or both deflation and inflation (biflation/stagflation).  Or sequential.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 21:31 | 1961419 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

All debts are dollars that must be repaid. Very few new loans means less currency. With fractional reserve banking, more loans must be made to keep the ball rolling. There is a huge shortage of dollars to repay the amount of debt, and very few new dollars to do so. Dollar short squeeze means all things priced in dollars must fall. It took a while to wrap my brain around this. Study fractional reserve banking. Watch this video, it describes the problem well. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc3sKwwAaCU

The more they print, the more must be repaid ( with interest added) making an even greater shortage of dollars. Crazy.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:41 | 1961891 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Deflation will win out because the Federal Government depends on low interest rates for its very survival.  If they print too much interest rates will rise.  Even a 1% move in short rates will wreak havoc on the budget.  A 2% move will put debt servicing at or above military expenditures.  In the short-term (maybe a few more years) the Federal Government will benefit from the "flight to safety" as the junk bond market implodes -- and it will.  ALL junk bonds will be worth NOTHING at the end of the next deflationary storm.  The collapse in debt through defaults will shrink the money supply which gives the government even more latitude for printing ... which they will.  But that is why I say it will be short lived.  Because once the junk debt is destroyed, higher quality will be threatened so risk premiums will rise, which will threaten the very survival of the government.  So they really don't have a choice.  Deflation will win because they have to walk a tight rope.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:27 | 1961110 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I would like to take a poke at summing it up since the author left out the war with Eurasia and Eastasia.

"all bets are off"  

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:33 | 1961127 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

September/October....count on it!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:32 | 1961122 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

A counterpoint to Rosie's deflation thesis:

« QE will move towards infinity in the entire Western World of finance. End of story! »

- Jim Sinclair, Mineset, 7 December 2011

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:44 | 1961150 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Even Helicopter Ben balked at QE which everyone was expecting to be announced in August. 

QE, it turns out, was more problematic than expected. Not without consequences that detract from the goal. 


Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:08 | 1961222 blu
blu's picture

In a race to the bottom you need to arrive last.

Bennie is saving his next two QE bullets for sometime after the collapse of the EU. But he will use them oh yes. Timing is everything here, I'd put the next QE at Q2'12 and the last (absolutely the last forever and evar) at the very end of 2012. But it will be tiny in scope and intended only to enrich no more than 200 people in the entire world. This will be the nest-egg that relaunches global civilization sometime in the next century.

2013 will be Hell. Simply. Hell. Ben and the Inkjets will be utterly forgotten and we'll all be trying to remember what the discussion was about.

Then, three generations of fire.

Yeah I have an active imagination. You better hope.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:14 | 1961247 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There's a chance Ben will announce a Fed stimulus program: to rebuild the nation's fleet of helicopters. His shock n awe program's tagline would be "let's put a bird in every crib" 

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 00:43 | 1961895 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Even if there is a QE3 and it is as big as QE2 it will not be enough to keep up with the debt destruction from mass defaults.  Deflation will over-power them.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:42 | 1961142 no life
no life's picture

Too many assholes.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:43 | 1961145 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Are we there yet?


Yes we can.

But it looks like we won't, unless we have to.



Damn, this one's is gonna hurt.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 19:46 | 1961157 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

How the hell did they get a copy of my playbook?  Rosies on point tonight by dog!

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 21:54 | 1961476 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You and I see this thing playing out the same way, Stax.

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 20:00 | 1961192 blu
blu's picture

A lot of the inflation/deflation debate revolves around what happens within individual nations as they print their way to short-term survival.

However we are now locked in a GLOBAL economic environment, and the actions of individual nations are both less important, and hard to extract from global positions. Treaties, monetary unions, trade balances (or lack) and resource wars are really jacking things around. Vast sums of money are sloshing like bildge water from one side of the Atlantic to the other, probably twice a day. We see this manifest in seeming random herks and jerks in equities. Well it's not random to someone out there!

I wonder if some abstract eigenvector precessing slowly in phase space might suddenly resolve itself and immediately throw some nations into massive inflation, others into massive deflation, and all the world's wealth flowing quickly from unsustainable ponzi towers and into less energy-rich valleys of safer haven. Something like that would collapse like a quantum foam; you chance to look and -- poof -- it melts.

Yeah I know that probably doesn't make much sense. It helps if you can operate in 17-dimensional space, I guess.

Fri, 12/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1962501 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

My eigenwerts never passed N=5.  That anyone can operate in even 10 dimensions is incredible to me.  Sometimes it seems 3 is too many -- Flatland, bitchez.

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