Rosenberg Presents The Three Ways Bernanke Disappointed The Market, And Why It Is Dumping

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Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:27 | 1698367 Hedgetard55
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Rosie has great 20-20 hindsight. Sheep Dog 1 called this, yet he is not making Rosie's money. An insane world.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:35 | 1698408 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Prepare for buying stocks: defense, tobacco, booze, and pharmaceuticals who repair the outcome of defense, tobacco, booze.

And physical PMs of course.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:45 | 1698467 ratso
ratso's picture

There should be at leat a footnote in this discussion that Operation Twist will also reduce net interest costs and therefore slow the rate of growth of the budget deficit.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:24 | 1698723 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

The crack-head wanted its fix, Bernanke is shy a few rocks and so the crack-head went into withdrawls and got violently upset.

Later in the day the crack-head heard a rumor that Europe may have some good shit, stopped tweeking and calmed down a little - hoping tomorrow it may get its fix.

But if that crack-head doesnt get high shortly - watch the fuck out!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:49 | 1698822 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Soon, the crack won't do it anymore, as crack cannot make a corpse feel better.  Time to top off the preps, methinks...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:57 | 1698861 AbelCatalyst
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I thought the real story was the three no-votes on the FED - the fact that there was opposition to what was considered a "mild" easing says something about what is going on behind closed doors.  Would there be more opposition to a larger print?  Maybe the Bernak is feeling like he is going it alone and is being set up as the patsie?  The Repubs send a letter, Perry calling him out, Obama not saying a word in support, a few people in his own ranks voting against him...  Smells like a scapegoat in the making!!   

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 18:15 | 1699086 CrashisOptimistic
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Somewhat good call, but I want to look deeper.

Specifically, there were 3 dissents at the last meeting, too, and my money is on the following:

They were a different 3 dissenters this time.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 19:47 | 1699328 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

"Would there be more opposition to a larger print?"  Yes, the same 3 would've said "PLEASE Ben, don't" instead of just "Ben, don't."  And that would've been it...............................

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 20:49 | 1699466 Clinteastwood
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 the Fed did surprise the market by not merely signalling to investors that the central bank would remain accommodative beyond just what may be considered to be an "extended period", but by actually stating that rates would be kept near 0% through mid-2013 at the very least. That was something that  

 both bonds and stocks were not anticipating — a specific date well into the future.

This time around, there was very little that was not anticipated,

Blah, blah, blah

Rosie's prediction of what the Bernank was gonna do was 100% incorrect.  Now he's back with another explanation.  Why does anyone give any credence to these predictors of the future?  

You oughtta be ashamed to write another word......keep quiet for a little while at least.....PLEASE, ROSIE?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 19:20 | 1699270 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Essentially yes, thats what happened.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 20:21 | 1699410 Anonymouse
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True, that is surely part of the rationale. 

OTOH, it will make the shock all the greater when interest rates ultimately go up. 

As much as I hate brinksmanship, DC needs something to kick them in the butt to get spending under control.

Suppressing interest rates just helps them continute to kick the can down the road.

Meanwhile, the underlying problems, instead of being addressed, get worse and worse.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:58 | 1700082 bulldung
bulldung's picture

I am among the financially unlearned and do not understand how going from the lower short end rates to higher rates decreases net costs to the US Treas.US gov needs more money and with twist there is no net money gain as it is a rollover that actually costs taxpayer more interest$. What am I missing?Will the new money go for the new, improved lower rate long bond?

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:49 | 1698422 CClarity
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Rosie is a really good economisct - so much better than almost all the rest that are cited.  He doesn't trade markets and the super short term, but he has been very good at outlining his expetations over time.  Long term or at least middle term investors do well to follow his views.  For short term flippers he's not your guy.

He has been very good on balance sheet recession, interest rates, and the implications - especially macro.  And to boot, he is a very funny, not self-impressed guy, generous guy.  Had the pleasure of a dinner with him and multiple conversations at a conference back in the Spring.  

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 17:55 | 1699022 Alea Iactaest
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Rosie is one I bother to follow. That said, I think he could extend his prediction about the status of further Fed easing. Probably nothing in Novemeber, which means probably nothing for a year or so. Not likely for the Fed to risk its *independence* by monkeying around too much in an election year.


Does this mean further easing is off the table? I don't think so at all. The door is still open for some kind of mortgage relief program -- the Romans gave out loaves of bread and this will be the U.S. equivalent. Also, there's no prohibition on the IMF greasing the skids. Will give the Fed plenty of political cover about easing and still accomplish the same result. May even be better, as the bulk of the IMFs 500+Bn liquidity program is funded with FRNs courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer.


Oh yeah. You don't want your tax dollars used to bail out Greece or any of the other Euros? Too bad.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:40 | 1698439 TradingJoe
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Yeah! Legendary SD1!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:48 | 1698484 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Props to SD1. But the deeper truth si that the FED never needed to "announce" QE 3, because nothing has ever stopped. If there is ever an investigation, 5 years on, after a good FOIA request, the truth of Swap Lines and SPV's and dark pool will come tumblong out.

Or it could happen by November 9as per Clif High). Who knows.

BUt the truth is that it is stranger than fiction and an iceberg shows a small percentage of it's true size.


Troy Davis was a Ritual Sacrifice

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:55 | 1698525 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

"M1 and M2"


I don't think the PM ride is over yet, fellas.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:46 | 1698810 mcguire
mcguire's picture

re: troy davis was a ritual sacrifice... 

sept 21 listed on occult calanders as 'illuminati human sacrifice night'.. its called "Mabon" 

if you close your eyes to the occult, you will never know what is really going on..

and, if you follow this kind of stuff.. what is happening through the 27th of September..

well, it will be nothing but shitstorms through rosh hashana.. cardinal crosses, obama in denver, it is a tin foil hat masterpiece.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 17:01 | 1698874 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Indeed McGuire. And so it was done, eh?

Thanks for the Link.


Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:49 | 1698485 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Oh yeah. We go way back. Back like $20 silver and $1300 gold.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:59 | 1698563 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

yep 20 20 hindsight. no doubt........

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 18:17 | 1699095 Billy Bob
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I am not certain what you are talking abouut......."Rosie has great 20-20 hindsight" 

Maybe I missed something, but it seems to me than Rosie has in fact been one of the most consistent Bond Bulls on the Street.

Ormaybe you intend another meaning.





Thu, 09/22/2011 - 19:35 | 1699309 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

True.  Was there not a Rosie post here on ZH prior to Bernanke speech predicting it would disappoint because the mkt had already priced in OT, and would expect a doozy of a plan to actually consider it good news?  

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:28 | 1698369 TruthInSunshine
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More clown Cramer and less Rosie for the big fade (indexes need to be at the 70% off rack before the quality merchandise can be picked over).

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:29 | 1698371 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

imo, point #3 is the biggie.  no money printing for at least 8 months (unless it is absolutely need at S&P 600).

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:36 | 1698414 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Yeah....I got this too. So until then, expect the marekt to test 2009 March bottom lows at the very least. It's the only way the treasury gets funded over this time frame. 



Thu, 09/22/2011 - 20:03 | 1699369 unununium
unununium's picture

+2.53 This is really important to remember

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:29 | 1698372 erik
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Suck it in Buffett... BAC is fighting to hold 6.00 with everything its got right now

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:49 | 1698487 tekhneek
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$5 and some change by the bell tomorrow.

My puts are finally in the green again.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:08 | 1698629 erik
erik's picture

And it held, wow.  Not one sub-6.00 print today.  There were some heavy bids when it printed 6.00 several times. 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:29 | 1698374 GeneMarchbanks
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Maybe it falls on the Fed building, who knows...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:30 | 1698379 Robslob
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This is the same Rosie that said just a few days ago we were going to get Twist + QE3 large?

Rosie Palm more like...

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:40 | 1698436 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Actually, he didn't say that. He just laid out a few different scenarios and what he expected the fallout to be from each of them .

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:50 | 1698490 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

You mean "Palmela Handerson"

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:30 | 1698380 OrdellRobbie
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Gold and Silver are down despite the worsening EU crisis, dollar now a safe haven.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:36 | 1698412 SilverRhino
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Silver Bid: 35.82 Ask: 35.92 Change:  -4.57

Man today sucks a$$ ... but, physical can ride it out.


Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:43 | 1698456 pupton
pupton's picture

We're in deep doodie Mortimer!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:49 | 1698486 mayhem_korner
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Back up the truck, Rhino.  Ag will recover plenty in time for Halloween.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:08 | 1698630 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Backed it up Monday for proofs ... I'm still green and not THAT worried.  We will never see $30 silver again.   I know that much.  


Thu, 09/22/2011 - 18:12 | 1699076 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Don't say never. We may get a deflationary collapse before HeliBen starts QE3. 

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:52 | 1698505 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

You're in good support around these parts. I backed up the truck about an hour ago and loaded up 50% of my cash. Going to dump the other 50% tomorrow if it dips more.


Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:53 | 1698516 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Hell, what am I saying? I'll be dumping the other 50% of my cash tomorrow anyway.

Who the hell would hold paper right now? But... I could be wrong.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:11 | 1698644 SilverRhino
Thu, 09/22/2011 - 16:22 | 1698705 theotheri
theotheri's picture

Gold is toast, Silver's worth about $8, how's that for reality PM monkeys?


Rosie- hahahahahahaha, lmfao!  This whale man has been consistently wrong about absolutely everything.  Why does he get so much damn attention?!

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 18:01 | 1699046 tsx500
tsx500's picture

safe haven, right !   lol.    i'd rather invest all my $$ into a daycare center run by Casey Anthony , than put it in the USD .  

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:32 | 1698383 TruthInSunshine
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Where's Barton Biggs?

I'd love to see an interview with that clueless, old bastard today, as he mutters something incomprehensible about price/savings ratios or meat/potato ratios, before nodding off to sleep mid-interview, just for the insanity of it all.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:35 | 1698411 wisefool
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He was on bloomberg 20 minutes ago over the phone. he says he is 20% long and wishes he was -20%.

Says "officials" are at fault. Asia would be fine but thier cirrencies have slapped.

Really dynamic and negative. I'll try to find the clip.

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:37 | 1698419 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Ahhhh, I see, the old "official's should plan the economy and markets for better returns" philosophy....

Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:47 | 1698477 wisefool
wisefool's picture

yup. "Officials" Officials are people like US sentators. Here a transcript of the recent debt ceiling debate. McCain (R) and Kerry (D) blaming it all on the tea partiers.

  • John: They are are bunch of jerks.
  • John: We were just as bad.
  • John: we were probably worse.
  • John: yeah but they need to knock it off and listen to us.
  • John: yeah they are standing on principles.
  • John: dumb principles, and when we tell them to shut up, they react by saying "fine we want to get the same stuff from the honey wagon as you guys have done for yourselves and your sponsors over the years."
  • John: Assholes!
  • John: Agreed.
  • John: Its the officals who are at fault!
Thu, 09/22/2011 - 15:31 | 1698385 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Is this the start of the "gentle" crash landing moment? 

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