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Roubini Asks of ‘Goldbugs’ on Twitter “Where is 2,000?”
From GoldCore
Roubini Asks of ‘Goldbugs’ on Twitter “Where is 2,000?” - Ignores Academic Research
Gold is trading at USD 1,626.10, EUR 1,261.20, GBP 1,067.30, CHF 1,557.40, JPY 129,550 and AUD 1,643.0 per ounce.
Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,635.00, GBP 1,055.32, and EUR 1,255.18 per ounce.
Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,665.00, GBP 1,068.75, and EUR 1,262.22 per ounce.
Gold in USD – 1 Yr (100, 144, 200 DMA – yellow line at $1,618/oz)
Gold is marginally higher in most currencies today and bargain hunters are beginning to buy after the recent price falls. The falls were due to recent dollar strength, liquidity issues in the financial system and weak technicals.
We warned in August that gold could trade as low as $1,500/oz or $1,600/oz as it had become over extended and overbought in the late summer.
How much further might gold fall? Market momentum is a powerful force and therefore further weakness is quite possible.
Support is at the 200 day moving average at $1,619/oz. Below that is the psychological level of $1,600 per ounce and the 250 day moving average of $1,571/oz.
Price resistance was seen at the $1,570/oz level between late April and July 2011 (see chart) and this level could become support as is often the case in bull markets.
It is important to note that gold’s falls have been primarily dollar related and gold has fallen by a lot less in pound and in euro terms.
Most analysts of the gold market remain of the view that this is another correction and that the medium and long term uptrend will continue due to significant investment, store of wealth and central bank demand due to geopolitical, macroeconomic, systemic and monetary risk.
One analyst who appears to have a very different view regarding gold is world renowned economist Nouriel Roubini.
The Chairman of Roubini Global Economics has again taken to Twitter to engage in some name calling and to appear to question gold’s recent price action and whether gold may reach $2,000/oz.
Nouriel Roubini
@Nouriel New York
Professor at Stern School, NYU, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics (www.roubini.com), blog at www.economonitor.com/nouriel/ , co-author of Crisis Economics
Roubini or @Nouriel tweeted yesterday evening:
“Gold at a 7 weeks low down to 1635. Where is 2000 gold dear gold bugs?”
The tweet continues his frequent somewhat intemperate and aggressively dismissive tone with regard to gold itself and people who own it. He has also been intolerant of people and experts who believe that a form of gold standard might be beneficial to the global monetary and financial system.
It is interesting that the tweet did not have dollar symbol or mention USD or dollars.
Our expertise is not monetary economics so we will leave that debate to others (see commentary). However, we would note that experts on monetary policy such as the President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, and former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, have proposed considering a return to some form of gold standard.
With regard to gold’s price and whether it is a bubble as has been suggested by Nouriel frequently, we do have an opinion.
Our opinion has been consistent - it is that markets are very unpredictable and it is extremely difficult to predict the future price movement of any asset class. It impossible to predict the future price movement of all asset classes over different time frames and over a long period of time.
This is the reason that we advise clients to have a genuinely globally diversified portfolio with allocations to global equities, global bonds (high credit, low duration), cash and gold.
Diversification is the closest thing there is to a free lunch.
The majority of investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to invest is through an institutional index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.
Nouriel and many other experts continue to focus on the nominal price of gold in dollar terms. They fail to adjust for inflation and they fail to look at gold in euro, pound or other fiat currency terms.
By continually focusing on the dollar price, they completely fail to see and understand gold’s value.
Gold’s value has proven itself a safe haven both historically, in recent years and academically. There is now a large body of academic and independent research showing gold is a safe haven asset.
Numerous academic studies have proved gold’s importance in investment and pension portfolios – for both enhancing returns but more importantly reducing risk.
The importance of owning gold in a properly diversified portfolio has been shown in studies and academic papers by Mercer Consulting, Bruno and Chincarini, Scherer, Baur and McDermott and the asset allocation specialist, Ibbotson.
An academic paper, ‘Hedges and Safe Havens – An Examination of Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Gold and the Dollar' by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev and Dr Brian Lucey and was presented in November at a conference hosted by the Bank for International Settlements, the ECB and the World Bank.
This excellent research paper clearly shows gold's importance to a diversified portfolio due to gold's "unique properties as simultaneously a hedge instrument and a safe haven."
Oxford Economics research on gold in July 201, showed how gold is a good hedge against inflation as well as deflation.
Only last week, more excellent independent research was released confirming gold's unique role as a diversifier and foundation asset in the portfolios of investors, especially at a time of heightened currency, investment and systemic risk.
The independent research from highly respected New Frontier Advisors (NFA) confirms the importance of gold as a portfolio diversifier to investors in Europe and to investors exposed to the euro.
As an academic and an economist, it is incumbent on Dr Roubini to do some research on this and thoughtfully reply. Engaging in name calling by calling people ‘gold bugs’ who advocate investing in gold is not professional.
It is the economics of the playground and akin to someone calling Dr Roubini a ‘paper bug’, an ‘equity bug’, a ‘bond bug’, a ‘dollar bug’ or God forbid a ‘spam bug’.
We have some respect for Dr Roubini as a macroeconomist and have indeed shared many of his concerns in many years and shared them with our clients and the wider public as long ago as 2005 and 2006 when we and he warned that the US would soon follow in Iceland’s footsteps: (‘Today Iceland: Tomorrow Turkey, Hungary, Australia, New Zealand, US’ 30/03/06)
However, giving financial advice is not his expertise and he may be better suited focusing on his strengths.
Roubini is regarded as a guru by many experts and opinion makers internationally and there is a real risk that his opinions regarding gold could lead to poor and imprudent investment decisions.
In December 2009, when gold was at $1,100/oz, he said that "all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they're just speaking nonsense."
One of our clients actually sold their gold allocation on the basis of this statement. Despite gold being the one asset class that had protected them during the crisis.
It is possible we have misunderstood Dr Roubini and his opinions regarding gold and we would welcome a television debate on this matter with him.
He advocates printing money to help the economy and people. He should also encourage people to protect themselves by diversifiying and owning some gold, which can offer a hedge to the possible consequences of currency debasement.
Roubini has been fairly good at calling world economic events in recent months, however his investment ‘advice’ has been poor and he appears to not understand ‘investments 101’ which is diversification.
For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.
SILVER
Silver is trading at $29.73/oz, €22.90/oz and £19.23/oz
PLATINUM GROUP METALS
Platinum is trading at $1,448.75/oz, palladium at $617.50/oz and rhodium at $1,425oz.
NEWS
(Bloomberg)
Gold Rebounds From Eight-Week Low as Two-Day Decline Encourages Purchases
(Reuters)
U.S. gold falls 2 percent on dollar rally
(Reuters)
Weaker gold to test, but not crack ETF holder nerve
(Financial Times)
Gold ETF holdings hit record high
COMMENTARY
(Financial Post)
Nouriel Roubini’s Lapse in Standards
(MarketWatch)
Contrarians detect strong wall of worry in gold market
(ZeroHedge)
Greek Bank Run Hits Record: Unprecedented €6.8 Billion In Deposits Pulled From Greek Banks In October
(Business News Network)
Video Interview with Kyle Bass: Deposits Leaving PIIGS – Final Precursor to Sovereign Defaults
(Financial Times)
Make your own (collateralised) gold standard
(Wall Street Journal)
Is Gold the Answer to Europe's Crisis?
»
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The more its a dip the more buying power in silver! Im gonna buy more silver!
Gracias, Senor. It's off to my dealer.
LC55
that was easy........
Precious metals are a time play for me. I'm not looking to sell tommorow, these are heirloom items, that can be used to store the value of my labour for future security. I don't care what price are PM's going to be tommorow. I care about the price they are going to be in 30 years. You cannot inflate them, you cannot debase them. They are what they are.
Silver has many uses as an industrial metal, and is very useful in green tech, and future tech. It is formed in the heart of a dying star, the cost of recreating it in a lab is in the millions of dollars/oz.
Not to mention that if things are handled "right" you can skip that whole pesky death tax with them.
not just what price in 30 years but which will be the dominant currency in 30 years. whatever it is, I'm certain that I'll be able to sell my physical into the new currency. holding $, not so sure.
Yeah, the idea is you're well fucked today. Possibly for another week or two. Merry Christmas
dont worry, when the whole financial system comes down from the inevitable derivative/rehypothecation thermo-nuclear explosion we can all ask roubini:
"where is your fucking money, ass clown? maybe the fdic will reimburse you long after you are dead"
Isn't he the guy that got fleeced by MF Global for millions of dollars?
Okay ZH troopers look sharp.........lock 'n load.......we at war now bitchez.
Fuck off Roubini.
Physical delivery prices NOT dropping - stock-numbers very low. Rumors haeraeus buillon NOT DEVLIVERABLE FOR UNKNOWN TIMES.
Screw that ETF-chartpricing. Doesn't matter.
Decouple_me_harder.
As long as the gold and silver ETF's exist they will always pull metals prices down during market sell-off's, we have to understand it.
Physical delivery prices NOT dropping
Hmm... Tulving still has Gold on sale for $66.95 over spot... same as last week when I bought at $1731.
I have been trying to buy Krugerrands in London for two weeks. When I agreed the price, gold was at $1745. But after 12 days the dealer has only been able to get me 30 so far. Another well advertised dealer - in Hatton Garden, London - has a web page to order from. See all the Not Availables. Enter a number for what stock he has and it will tell you if he has enough. It's very little, only a few ounces here and there - and we are talking central London. http://www.hattongardenmetals.com/buy-gold.aspx
GOOD! SO, I CAN BUY MORE GOLD!! CRASH IT, CRASH IT!
He is an arrogant prick who got one call right.
World markets all in the red while my shinny gold is up big, bwahahah
PC Load Letter...
I can tell you. We've had a bout of negative nominal rates going into the fall. This greatly supports the gold price. In its absence and in light of the MF Global scandal, its possible to have some weakness in the gold price relative to its previous price rise.
Though I would not say that the gold price is weak unless you agree with GATA that the price is suppressed and has not achieved its inflation-adjusted 40-year moving average. Gold is trading now at its 34-week EMA, it wil be difficult to maintain a price decline below this level.
One thing to be watching for is the 30-year bond price at auction today. Should rates rise on the long dated treasury, while short term rates remain at zero or go into negative rates again, this will be an imporant development.
But we are, after all, just prior to options expiry. Suprise the price of gold is down, and long dated treasuries up.
but this doesn't seem to be option expiry issue to me, it seems to be the so called "risk on risk off" trade instead.
stocks up, gold up
stocks down, gold down.
been like that since September, regardless of options expiry... no?
I remember when Turd would predict options expiry mayhem earlier this year and then it really seemed prominent when gold went up no matter what any other asset class did... then BAM options expiry and it would fall.
however, there doesn't seem to be a need for those shenanigans these days when the risk off trade captures gold too.
Options expiry is usually preceded by a price fixing regime. But I wouldn't discount the possibility that we have the bankruptcy of Jeffries or Interactive Brokers as a spectacle.
Like if I engage in conversation with Roubini, then my gold in fiatscos will appreciate faster. Hell, and not like my gold that was lost in recent tragic boat accident had anything to prove to Dr. Antibarbarian.
My feeling is that with these artificially low prices, the central banks are loading up on PMs before the inevitable decoupling with the paper market.
Pure speculation... Based on what facts... Do you have an inside source?
Me thinks not...
I'd suspect as much too Marcus.
Show us your fund performance, dear doctor.
Would goldcore and the other morons please stop talking about "markets", "technicals" and "fundamentals"? In what part of disneyland are you living exactly? Trash.
Maybe he's been drinking again. This move is pretty straight forward analysis - video here
Can an economist who reacts the daily swings of the market in such a petty manner ibe considered much of an economist?
The fuckin Arab is a fool.
Mr. Bass said this would happen. So buy PM's on sale Bitchessssss.
Funny. He has a face that says"ball peen hammer" all over it.
Respect for Roubini? No way. Self-loving dick-lover that loves to see his pretty face in the press. He completely lost it after he accidently called out about the problems in 2006. But just like Paulson, one-hit wonder. At least Paulson made money out of it. Idiot Roubini tried to run a consultency no one really needs.
I feel a bit sorry for Roubini. That he feels he has to come onto twitter to slag off at gold means to him it is a real worry to his credibility.
The global financial system and ecnomies on the edge of collapse and he doesn't see the need to have bullion? He may have ability at analysing global economies and predicting their troubles but beyond that he seems dangerously ignorant.
Maybe he thinks all the central banks buying gold hand over fist are doing so because it looks shiny and pretty.
His ego must really keep him up at night over that gold will never go above $1500 call. His sleepness nights over being wrong make him do things like call out Jim Rickards without even reading his book.
revenge is best when it is served up cold oh wise iranian jew........
Wait, I thought the Jews were pumping the gold trade?
Or is it dumb, poor, white trash losers?
"Where is 2000?"
LOL! How is your fund performing again? Moreover, who fucking cares? Got physical? Show me the physical to back all the paper in PMs.
LOL!
The question is whether the good Dr Roubini will agree to shut the fuck up when gold finally does hit $2000? If not, then all of his commentary has no point other than to distract and disrupt the masses from this ponzi scheme we call the U.S. FRN.
I think he crossed over to the dark side shortly after he started getting gigs on CNBC, just IMO though.
Make physical delivery on all the hypthocated gold from MF Global and see what happens Roubini.
I think there is another "Shocker" of a move about to appear with Gold.
I noticed that very quietly the Gold Lease Rate has fallen to all time record Lows......I wouldn't want to be the entity that Lent the Gold, unless, of course, I was one of the Gang Members playing my role. Check it out. Does it make sense?
lol, paper exchanges are failing as predicted by many PMbugs, including myself. Why on Earth would anyone think that you can get a paper exchange failure, and still have the price set by that exchange go skyrocketing? As I have been saying for a year now, higher gold and silver prices delay the failure of the COMEX. Lower prices speed it. Bring on the lower prices so we can break through this barrier and get to true price discovery.
copy that...how n the fuck can Gold & Silver be moving like they r given the insolvency of most of the fucking globe...AINT NOBODY SELLING NO REAL METAL unless they never had a clue to begin with...
cant wait for my dealer to open up...bought some yesterday...buying some more today....tomorrow...so on, and mother fuckin so on...
kiss my ass bankers..............
Exactly. It's a very confusing time for Gold holders though - you have to be strong in your convictions. The paper price is heading for zero, as the 100x + leverage in the paper markets collapse them when even a minor physical scramble starts. I suspect the EU collape will trigger it. The pricing mechanism for physical gold will break down, nobody will sell physical for the paper price or the "premiums" for physical will just explode (same thing).
I feel for those goldbugs. However, Roubini holds all cash he said....the dollar has lost 12% per year in purchasing power for the last several years...so who is right?
I think it should be clear to all of us now that gold will just keep falling $30/day until it reaches 0 in about 55 trading days. All the expert gold bears are out now, telling me how smart they are, so this seems like the perfect time to unload all of my gold and related exposure and load up on paper. After all, what could be smarter than dumping something at it's long-term support, before it breaks that support and goes crashing to 0. Thanks gold bears, Roubini, Gartman, etc. - you might have been a little offside in the past, but I'm pretty sure this time is different.
Zero never, but a 50% retracement definitely... Get out now and get back in later...
Gold Bugs love Roubini when he is with them, but they hate him when he sends a harsh dose of reality...
Gold Bugs love Roubini when he is with them, but they hate him when he sends a harsh dose of reality...
Next year Roubini will be saying 'where is 5,000?'
I'll be asking where $2000 gold is to - when it's at $4500....
Roubini's a one-trick-pony who's resting on his well-rested laurels...
God forbid you go against gold... Lot's of players getting caught in a tulip trap!
u forgot the "trollling is fun" part....
A look at the 10 yr chart shows gold moving in a pretty-much straight line; No parabolic move yet. I call No Bubble.
After it goes parabolic, gold prices are on the news right beside stock indexes, and everyone in the lunch room at work is talking about the coins they bought this week, I'll call Bubble.
Roubini has a penchant for girls.
Maybe "Gold" for him is linked to pussies.
Or maybe the US$ is gold for him!
cerain power yids in new yid city told him to keep his big sephardic yap shut about the doom and gloom program or they would immediately cut off his supply of shiksas by telling them all he has aids.......
Roubini is correct in that it hasn't reached 2000. That is indisputable
What is disputable is the fact he hasn't called a bottom. Now that is troll.
In other words he is no better that that dick Gartman who reads James Turk for answers.
Anyway gold at 1400-1570 and silver at 14-24 is a great buy - if you are true investor you're licking your chops.
If you're a dickhead day trader leveraged to your nuts oh well - sucks to be you.
On top of that, precious metals are always a "long" buy.....you dont buy the shit to make money on a 8-12 mth investment (although you would be making money THIS year, which Nouriel ironically didn't mention). It's something you hold onto to hedge against the volitility of even the most secure fiat. And it looks pretty.
But it also can be fickle, and it is under constant attack by Central Banks, who now know that market and population fear is often linked to a rising gold/PMs price (because the public is a bit smarter about this than in 2005. And it also means that your jewerly is more likely to be gaffed).
So those like Peter Schiff and even Gerald Celente who said that gold will go to 2K an ounce at the end of 2011 is also a reach. As Mr. Wolf said in Pulp Fiction, "Let's not start suckin' each others' dicks just yet."
Pretty short sighted here by Nouriel, who keeps defending fiat blindly (he parties like the 1%, obv). I mean, I respect what the guy is TRYING to say......but it is pretty obvious that his systems are pretty flawed in the sense that perfect math does not always fit into an imperfect world.
Pointing out you are right that gold isn't a 2K right now, at this point, is like saying that the 1996 Chicago Bulls aren't as good as everyone thought they were because the 2000 Chicago Bulls sucked.
would they good college instructor care to go into rehypothecation? fuck no.........
Where's 2,000? Where's a credible price discovery mechanism? How much net long position was wiped out with MFG?
Look at Platinum. Much better buy than gold. Silly goldbugs.
I'd love to buy it. But there's almsot no inventory, in coins, anywhere!
Very difficult to find Platinum. Tulving.com usually has some sort of platinum available at any given time but it sells out fast, and is usually 1oz coins or bars. I prefer the 1/10th ounce coins but those are almost impossible to find.
Nouriel, where is Dow 14,000? Bottom line, gold has been crushing records during this crisis and the period leading into it. Stocks, and other paper lost value especailly in light of inflation
So lets all become momentum chasers.
This deflationary crash was telegraphed long ago.
If you're caught - you're an idiot
If you're in cash - back up the bus when all the pumpers around here disappear. They will trust me.
They are hiding in their momma's basement wondering what the hell happened.
Don't worry, once the basement dwellers Gold Bugs lose all their money they'll find someone to blame (Rothchild's, Goldman Sachs, European Satanists, Little Green Men from Mars, etc...) It's all one big conspiracy don't you know... It has to be because Ron Paul told us so...
I've learned to never argue with a man living in his parents basement because he obviously has it all figured out...
I typically take my investment advise from people who give themselves ridiculous commenter names on websites. Grand Vizier sounds pretty impressive, so i am yours to instruct.
my only quibble _ you forgot the part about wearing pajamas.
jackass
Plus his bio says he is an "advisor".
Ok, now all you need is one more for a nice circlejerk.
I'll buy in the 1400's
You mean that Roubini kid we used to kick the shit out of in dodge ball back in high school. He was marked to be a syncopant to the ruling elite then always going to the dean of boys and complaining about getting the shit kicked out of him, which just made us go back and hang him from his jock strap from the shower head. What a pin head. So now he's revising history I see, and wondering where the $2000 mark is in gold. Good question.
Well Rubi, your friends at the central banks have been illegally selling the gold owned by the citizens of the nations they illegally represent to drive down the price, so it looks like they're in control of things. But its like selling oil out of the strategic reserve, it's only temporary. Even a lyin piece of shit like you knows when a price breaks up or down from a symetrical triangle formation, it ALWAYS RETESTS. So, once the central banks run low on mo-jo, and the dollar runs into massive resistance from rallying not on the strength of the dollar, but on the weakness of other currencies (like the dying Euro); the price of gold will snap back to the vector point of the gold break ($1730), and then it will go up and test $2000. And when it gets there, I hope it breaks itself off in your ass, where you keep your syncopant serving, lyin mutherfuckin brain.
Does that answer your question, Rube?
Someone ask him 'try getting a few tons of physical silver or a million ounces of physical gold'.
I mentioned many times in my comments that PM is not panacea and those who put all eggs in this one basket make a great mistake. Essentially, the price of gold is determined by the speed of printing machines and now when the Fed is on hold it is difficult to expect Gold appreciation. The current plunge though is clearly related to deleveraging of European banks.
I am actually start buying gradually. Keep in mind Mark Faber wisdom and do keep diversified. E.g. I am usually a buyer of AUD around 95-96 cents US...
RIGGED MARKETS!!!! Ths is more BS. How can you rely on anything being indicated by something that is completely RIGGED????!!!
When the Western Economy finally belly flops, THEN you'll get your market value which will not be based on these inflated, over printed fiat currencies.
I've been talking with real people, 99%ers. There are former pets roaming the streets in those former $800 to $1.2M neighborhoods. These neighborhoods just got wiped out. Lawns are not watered, fertilizers are no longer put on the lawns, so my neighbor no longer cuts their lawns as often.
The landscaper also was notified by BOA that they closed his acccount and his wife's account because they went below the required $150 balance after paying their bills. BOA sent a letter notifing each of them and BOA claims the remaining money belongs to BOA!!!! How trite is that?! IS THAT LEGAL???? I don't recall that being revealed in Terms & Conditions for accounts.
Then I talk with a friend within the Beltway and a friend on the Eastern Shore. THEY LOST THEIR shirts recently. AGAIN. This is the 3rd time for one. I tried to warn them. Very sad...
This is a moot issue if you are truely informed about investing in physical silver or metal. Blah, blah, blah.
BTFD!
Wah, Wah!!! It's all the fault of the little green men!!! You my friend are the victim of a pump and dump... No conspiracy, regardless of what Ron Paul says...
Yeah, MF Global commingling their client's funds, including many who were standing for delivery on the COMEX, is totally legit. I'm sure it just happened.
Surely Corzine is telling the truth. Just "It's gone. Poof!"
Did one of the long dead trolls finally get up the gumption to come back? Big Goggles here has only been around for 15 weeks.
Haha, you are Roobi aren't you. Your name suggests the level of juvenile arrogance of Roob's twitter posts.
Either way you bring nothing to the conversation but mindless anecdotes and drivel.
''The landscaper also was notified by BOA that they closed his acccount and his wife's account because they went below the required $150 balance after paying their bills. BOA sent a letter notifing each of them and BOA claims the remaining money belongs to BOA!!!! How trite is that?! IS THAT LEGAL???? I don't recall that being revealed in Terms & Conditions for accounts.''
Just very simple question: why do they keep their money with this shitty bank? I mean, it seems to me that people simply do not understand that the banks are of completely different quality.
May I suggest Charles Schwab banking account? No minimum balance, all ATM fees reimbursed, and the best customer service I have ever seen. An believe me, I know what am I talking about:
have accounts in some 20 different countries...
People, wake up. If you want to do well, just try to understand that you do have choices and they are not all the same...
Probably no one around here wants to hear it, but IMO US equities will outperform gold moving forward. The impetus for Gold's rise is slowly but surely waning and big players are closing out longs. Time to rethink your allocations, recovery does not bode well for TEOTW hedges. Obviously any printing will goose prices, but me thinks the big run up is over barring anything unforeseen.
Just sayin.
N.R.,
If you keep calling for a top long enough, even you will be right for a short time. We haven't even seen the endgame yet with the USD, which is coming in the next few years IMHO. Let's see where we are at in 2025 shall we?
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
You won't be alive in 2025.
Gulp! What do you know that I don't?
I had asked these questions in a past thread, but it was quite late in the day, and I couldn't get meaningful answers before the post fell on page two, so I ask again: how could the divorce between paper and metallic gold happen?
Will the miners and large physical holders make a new acronym to sell the metal at the price buyers are ready to pay for phyz? Will some regulatory agency decide that GLD paper is an economic object that is not gold and have it sold under its own name? If today's "gold" is headed toward $500 or $25 an ounce and there is not a single gram of it to be bought anywhere without a 1900% premium, how will price discovery/exchange/sales happen technically?
Also, what can be the process by which paper gold and physical gold will become separate market objects? under which political/financial/ideological/legal conditions can this event happen? What are the necessary steps to go there?
Physical and paper gold will have to diverge at some point, when metal rarity will force a physical price at odds with a value of paper that will tend towards zero.
So there will be a tear/rift/chasm/earthquake/tsunami/godzilla/something in the gold market.
What will it be?
Maybe this:
http://www.goldmoney.com/video/naylor-leyland-turk-interview.html
(Or position limits on CME/LBM?)
I think FOFOA covers the decoupling in recent posts
thanks to you and onebir
I'm gonna read now
Roubini was pretty vulnerable himself to 'where's the crisis' for a couple of years.
"Oxford Economics research on gold in July 201, showed how gold is a good hedge against inflation as well as deflation." Here's the paper: http://www.scribd.com/doc/70420798/The-Impact-of-Inflation-and-Deflation....
Much as I agree with the long-term case for gold, I don't think this paper should be cited without a major caveat: it's based on a regression equation with a trended/serially correlated residual, which suggests (serious) mispecification problems. On top of this, long-run part of the equation assumes proportionality between the gold price and US CPI. But the US CPI has been increasingly doctored, and increasing numbers of wealthy people in emerging markets with high inflation rates are looking for wealth preservation options.
Fuck you Roubini.
"Where is 2000?"
Check with JPM, they'll pull it out of their asses as soon as their shorts are down.
why does anyone listen to this busta ass fake economist anymore...
the fact that he disses 1 of the only 2 forms of real money should immediately render his assesments bullshit...
fuck roubinin and the party girl he rode in on....bitch
DOUCHE!!!
A douche with tenure...that really must stink badly.
Lease at a -Minus Rate, one link for the FT view, and the question being; will the Gold disappear ala MF-Global's vanishing act?
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/12/793691/make-your-own-collateralised-gold-standard/
With more demand for gold as collateral — and with gold arguably influencing the cost of money — it’s natural that central banks should behave in gold markets like they have been used to behaving in bond markets, i.e. for executing rate policy.
How I would love an interim price of gold below $350 ahhh for it to be 1999-2000 again. I'll take another 2oz physical at today's price, for me it's great value.
Gold was around $1400 when John Taylor (FX Concepts) said it would go to $1900 and then retrace to $1100. He got the first part right, let's see for the rest..
No gold for you! More for me!
Certainly price is important but to me, buying & holding PMs is like buying life insurance.
Roubini is an ass. MFGlobal along with the strong dollar because of the EU collapse took care of the commodity market for the near term. Hold your PM's long term. Roubini should know full well at some point printing is going to go full blast and that will be an extreme inflationary condition. Does Roubini really think that banks are going to take haircuts instead?
haha do not get to nervous. Shall it fall to 1200, or even 1000 then I simply buy more of GOld. All this fall does not bother me quite much. Bullshit System, Ponzi Money hahaha.
If we do not see 2000 in the next two weeks, next two months I am sure this day will come.
If the Fed would stop intefering, stocks like BOA would have already gone to zero. Don't blame rational people for making rational choices in the insanity of a rigged market.
When gold drops to 1200, and you go to a miner and ask for gold and he turns around and says 1200? Fuck you, I want more than that, if you want 1200 go settle your futures in physical at the COMEX. Then I will tell you when gold 2000 is. We have a fiat paper market in all commodities which somehow determined the price of the actual underlying. I don't know what these futures markets are supposed to be selling, there is nowhere near enough of anything to cover the futures market in terms of physical delivery, and yet these paper bucketshops somehow set the prices of real goods. It sort of reminds me of the GBP game Soros played in the 90s. The BOE was claiming the GBP was worth whatever, Soros came along and decided to test this claim, and what do you know, the pound collapsed and the UK had to withdraw from the EMU. That was because the fair value of the pound was actually lower and the BOE could not support it.
It is only a matter of time before somebody decides to test the reality of the CBOT/NYMEX/COMEX markets, and PMs are nice relatively small markets which, even a relatively small, big boy (Sprott?) can easily test. I know that the commodity market makers reserve the option to settle their futures in cash, but if they decide to do that on a massive scale, then the game will become obvious. Hold physical and forget about the BS. The game is ending at all fronts. The commodities markets are just another aspect of the endgame.
daneric says 475
Yeah, every time it goes up you have people coming out saying it will go up to $15000 every time it goes down you have people coming out saying it will go down to $200. So based on what is happening right now, here is my take: gold to $5 silver to $0.1. So there. And when it goes up watch out for my updated prediction of gold to $100T and silver to $10T. The fuck. Fine, lever up and short gold and silver long term then. Become the first quadrilionaire.
As long as this man (who called gold a bubble when the price was half the current level) is bearish on gold you know you can safely keep your PM holdings. It's always very comforting to hear these guys talk like this - they have been perfect counter-indicators all along.
2000 is coming maybe 4000 maybe 10000, impatient, impatient, impatient. If your short gold than i guess, good luck. GO LONG ON AU and AG be patient
Patience is a virtue, but lets be honest we are all feeling a little distressed here.
btfd. distress, yes. distress is what makes the
dip do its dipping.
What if this decade is a repeat of the 80's?
What if Martians drop 1oz gold bars from the sky!
In the early 80s the US was still a net creditor. Not by much but a net creditor. Lets see Ben set the FED prime rate at 21.5% this time around, and the Ten year yield at something like 15% and tell me how it goes.
You are asking what if the government repeats what they did in the 80's and raises the interest rate to 20+%?
Do you really need to ask what would happen to the world's largest debtor in that situation?
The trick they used to stop hyperinflation last time only works when you, as a nation, are a net creditor.
Metals on sale! Buy the dips, dips! Put it away and forget about it.
I dont think we will see Dow Gold parity.
The next ten years may belong to third world stocks and bonds.
Thats my long term bet anyway.
Hyperinflation is not a realistic scenario in europe or the usa, but neither is hyper deflation, although it will feel that way to the unemployed.
Listening to Roubini is like being a chicken in a coup and listening to the fox tell us "come out, everything is safe in the field". All the while the fox profits from his advice at the expense of those who listened to him. Get it !
I'm still trying to understand why I should give a shit what a bunch of sociopaths think about the gold market.
Ok so let me get this straight.
First we have a centrally planned politburo mandate of what everything shall cost, including the price of gold. We have seen the price of gold get body slammed by the central bank cartel. Check these links:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-head-gold-trader-speculates-about-...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mni-reports-coordinated-central-bank-inter...
Then, we have this sycophant leering, "So where's 2,000 now?"
Are you kidding me? Where's 2,000? Do you think the politburo is going to allow markets to actually reflect the idiocy of central control - without a fight?
Dear Nouriel, gold is doing fine as it is steadily rewinding its 20th century decline. Right now gold is being used increasingly in collateralized loans for central banks in their own scramble for liquidity. This is a large step forwards towards backing loans and credit with gold and just a intermediate step in rehabilitation of gold in the financial system. This is also the cause of gold's negative lease rates and sadly also its current decrease in price. Gold is being USED, more specifically it's being swapped because few want to actually SELL their physical at this point. Most indicators of physical demand remain near or at record levels. Central banks swap it but because of the way the gold market currently operates, this affects the gold price itself. Once the crisis moves beyond the stage of liquidity, the swaps will be unraveled. Regardless of the outcome of the liquidity stage, or whether this resolution happens through default or printing, gold is set to go ballistic afterwards. Once confidence breaks down completely and "counterparty risk" becomes the name of the game, gold is set to go beyond ballistic and will be the only game in town.
as your avatar proclaims :I know what you don't know as I have seen the light, as events unwind like only I know they will; 'cos in the unknown future I am known as the apostle of known unknowns, he who can look round corners and can predict what makes unicorns unique.
For once, it's not so hard to know the general outline of what's going to happen. It's harder to sit tight and be right.
If anyone has time, just wondering what the different opinions are regarding this new PAGE (Pan Asian Gold Exchange) that is supposed to open in summer of 2012 and be 100% backed by gold. It seems that it should be uber-bullish but considering the fact that I see no reason why China would be interested in making the USD look like crap, I'm suspect that it will just be another scam, this time to direct the Asian market away from physical metal and into a new form of fiat garbage; especially since I've heard that EN+ is a large investor in PAGE. Anyway, thank in advance for anybody's thoughts.
Paper Lyin'?
He's an economist. If people deal in gold he's out of a job.
I may start stacking FRN'S and burying them in my yard.
In a deflationary regime, (total sudden destruction of the valuation of risk/debt financial instruments) cash is king, baby. I have taken the following steps:
I've cashed out all accounts. i keep just enough money in checking to cover the utlility bills. Everything else is cash and carry.
Food storage, draft animals, garden, crosscut saws, and skills with metal, wood, and leather round out the preps. We're going to wake up one day, if there is any oil to be had, we won't have the money to buy it. Brave new world on the big "E". Foe "Empty". Get used to it before it hits.
Roubini you're such a prick I have to comment before I even get to page 2.
The fact that you don't understand the difference between paper and physical is laughable.
That you can't see this lowering price due to precious metals being the only asset people can liquidate at a profit makes you look even dumber.
Roubini, if you don't hold physical you are an even bigger dick than you make out.
From Wikipedia:
The child of Iranian Jews, he grew up in Italy. After receiving a BA in political economics at Bocconi University, Milan and a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University, he became an academic at Yale and a practicing economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early research focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who in 2009 became Treasury Secretary.
Quite the resume! Is there a major international bankster racketeering organization he hasn't served?
Jim Willie:
We had a COMEX system failure in November. COMEX was ready to default on gold and silver in November. Rather than honor delivery demands in gold and silver- JP Morgan simply stole the money in the accounts that were going to stand for delivery. They had their pockets picked while they were standing in line at the delivery window. Notices of delivery were replaced at stolen accounts!
http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2011/12/explosive-interview-si...
Gerald Celente was one of those people waiting for delivery...and possibly Bill Flekenstein (he mentioned recently he had a contract(s) but not that he was waiting to take delivery) both with MF Global.
The writing is on the wall. There is a liquidity freeze - while selling gold/silver can provide some liquidity, this sell off wont last more than a month on the outer side. There will be liquidity injection - either in the form of easing/printing or other liquidity props. Gold/Silver will rebound soon, Prof. Roubini seems rather shallow with these kinds of ill informed remarks
where is his $4 for silver?
Tyler, Someone made a great video and thanked you and Turd and some of the other great sites. Tough day for silver so here is the video for some extra cheer.
Silver Bells video watch here
The total value of global cash (notes and coins) is roughly estimated to be about 6 trillion dollars.
Total global M3 is approx 60 trillion $.
Total global value of all financial instruments, including derivatives is impossible to estimate, but somewhere between 1,000 trillion and 1,5 trillion $.
Currently, the estimated value of all gold is about 8 trillion dollars, at $1600/oz.
The total weight of all gold is 5 billion ounces.
Dividing the total cash by the total gold gives us $1,200/oz.
Dividing by M3, gold should be valued at $12,000/oz.
Dividing by total valuation of all risk bearing financial instruments, gold should be worth as much as $30,000/oz.
Aside from JPM and Crimex conspiracy theories, why doesn't gold reflect M3, or more? Why is the valuation of gold roughly the valuation of currency?
The amazing thing about gold (and it has to reflect some sort of aggregate human hive-mind psychological meta-knowledge) is that it is risk free. It retains its spending power despite deflationary and inflationary trends. Gold never reflects valuations that include risk. How the human collective sub-conscious is able to factor out risk and value gold accordingly is a mystery to me. But gold factors out risk. It just does.
What does the value of gold do, if the value of gold factors out risk, and the amount of total systemic risk increases dramatically? In rough terms, the value of gold would go down until the price of gold reflected the remaining risk-free element in the economy. But in nuanced terms, a sudden increase in systemic risk may be too much for the collective sub-conscious to calculate. There would then be a lag-time in the valuation of gold. IE, the price of gold would be somewhat inflated, relative to some number "n" that reflects the true risk-free valuation of the global economy.
This lag-time may reflect itself in the number of gold-blogs that predict $30,000/oz gold, when the real trend in gold prices is in the exact opposite direction. But because gold investors expect gold to move up, the actual price drop of gold lags behind the very rapid shrink-rate of risk-free economic value.
Go ahead. Junk me. But you'll suss it out eventually. Gold: $100/oz, oil, $300/barrel in the new deflationary peak oil nightmare soon to overtake us. Bitchez.
Your not counting for the extraordinary LEVERAGE in the system which as its removed will put your precious at $200, houses at $25,000 and oil at $35.00.
-and leaves our debt over 15T! Oh no..
Right, because more dollars in the system==lower prices for real goods.
Or did you forget about the Fed? And all of monetary history?
Archimedes would never understand how a physical lever could end up being used to lift so much virtual shit: "If I'd known that I would have stayed in my bath tub. What's the point of inventing flotation to measure the true density of gold in the kings crown, to verify if its made of pure gold, and then have somebody leverage it with my other invention and shout "eureka" I've made it into fiat paper gold worth twenty times more. I don't get it how these thieves can steal my inventions. They must all be romans, no true greeks."
You left out the value of all the pussy assets when you listed what be monetized.
You GOLD CHEERLEADERS remind me of pets.com equity longs back in the day.
You remind me of the troll whose bone I am currently using to pick my teeth.
Everybody here is failing to mention one critical factor in favor of having a good portion of your assets in pms. WEALTH TAXES!!
They are coming. The government can't tax what they can't see or find. Money in the Bank, Stocks, IRAs, 401ks, Pensions--will all be taxed by some given percentage every year to keep some semblance of the Welfare State in place and to pad the coffers of the pols so that they can buy votes from the fifty per cent or more who are not paying ANY TAXES.
Such a regime may last years or it may collapse because eventually everybody rebels or goes Galt. But in the meantime your assets get raped every year whether you have any income or not. (And that does not count what any possible inflation is doing to your retirement money).
Look at Argentina and Venezuela. That is where we are going, at least for a while.
No wonder government HATE precious metals unless they are in their Central Bank or they are confiscating them out of your bank box.
Did you buy your gold from a dealer, or with a credit card, or a check, or on-line? If you did, they'll find it, and they'll take it. If they don't find it, they'll take YOU.
If you didn't buy your gold with cash on the black market with no traceability, then you're fucked, like everyone else. Good luck, and read A Day In The Life of Ivan Denisovitch.
Yeah, I read that book more than thirty years ago. I read all of his books. I know what Tyranny is about. And that is why it will be a good day to die (for some of them and me) when any MFer of any stripe ever comes for my pms. Period.
Gold has taken a Stolpering,
but hanging in at support.
Safe haven my ass. Gold goes to 1450 maybe lower....
We've had a melt up, then we made a lower high. Every technician should wonder to hold or to dump.
Don't be suprised to see them dumping.