This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Roubini Confident Europe's Born Again Virgins Will Not Satisfy Germany
In an excellent summary of the world's interconnected nature, reliance on everyone else to solve their problems, and Europe's epicentric catastrophe, Nouriel Roubini joined Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene for some serious truthiness and doomsaying. From the 'slowdown/recession becoming a depression' to 1930s CreditAnstalt comparisons and Germany's lack of trust that a few years of abstinence will regain peripheral Europe's virginity, the original Dr. Doom along with Ian 'G-Zero' Bremmer offer much food for thought as to the various scenarios as investors anxiously await an expected central bank response to the 19th failed summit and how "we will be lucky if we end up like Japan" as he concludes: "It’s getting worse, there’s already a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse."
Roubini on the European Redemption Fund proposal:
“It is a limited proposal for e-bonds that will only be temporary for 20 years with all sorts of caveats. The Germans and Merkel have said no. Why? They worry about three things. one is about moral hazard. they say if we could agree on these things there will not be enough effort by Italy and Spain. Secondly is a time consistency problem. If you agree on that stuff and then they don’t deliver, then Germany is going to take a lot of risk. Three, there is a huge amount of credit risk the Germans will take by backstopping both the debt on one side and the deposits. The Germans say moral hazard, time inconsistency and credit risk—I don’t want to do it. They say, ‘you lost your virginity. Now you sign a contract; you say, 'I'm a born-again virgin.' Be abstinent for the next two years. Show me your soul and two years from now, we're going to get married. But today, I commit to marriage today? Forget it.’ The Germans don’t believe and they don’t trust the periphery.”
Roubini on how to get decisive action in the euro zone:
“The European leaders already had 18 summits of the leaders in the past two years. The last summit, the headline newspaper was the leaders decided to postpone key decisions. Now there are 19 summits. Now they're supposed to come up in one summit with a political union, with a banking union, with a fiscal union, with a transfer union, with a growth compact and resolve the problems that haven’t been resolved for years. Changes are the Germans are want to say no to European-wide deposit insurance.”
Bremmer’s view on global problems:
“First of all, I see that irrespective of whether you are a Democrat or a Republican in the United States, you are basically telling the Germans, “come on guys, you have to do something.” But we’re not going to play a role in that. I look at the Chinese government despite that they are awash in liquidity right now. They’re not prepared to actually provide any concrete support for the Europeans, so the Europeans must do this themselves. We’re not going to act as the lender of last resort for the euro zone. At the same time, I see plenty of other global problems banging along where everyone is kicking the can down the road. The willingness to kick the can right now for the United States, Japan, Europeans, the Chinese, has been an elite motif really since 2008.”
Roubini on the persistency of real economy slowdown:
“It’s not just a slowdown…The recession will become a depression. Output has fallen from the peak 15% in Greece. The same thing in Spain...This could become like Japan, but worse. Japan did not have a sovereign debt crisis because it was a net creditor country. But all of these countries are net debtors. They would be lucky to end up in stagnation like Japan. It’s getting worse, there’s already a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse.”
Roubini on German leadership:
“There is this gap between them saying we don’t want to take all this credit risk of backstopping of $3 trillion of Spanish and Italian debt. We don’t want to take all the credit risk of backstopping all the deposits of the euro zone. But then the other side says, unless you do something about it, in spite of our fiscal effort, the spreads are so high, the disintegration fragmentation of the banking system is becoming worse, and therefore we’re going to end up in a complete cliff. The German one side the one guarantees that these guys do enough reform and austerity, the other side says we’re doing it, but spreads are so high that it’s become unsustainable.”
Bremmer on whether Germany is removing itself from the conversation in Europe:
“I would not go that far. I do think they are engaged in a very difficult negotiation…The fact that the Germans at this point are not yet prepared to accept the kind of economic fixes that are required does not tell as much about their ultimate predisposition. They have their own domestic constituencies they have to play with. They also have very strong political constituencies across the euro zone that are acting in a very intractable way. We’ve seen some forms of German capitulation over the course of the past months…Who is to say that there will not be dramatically more capitulation when they’re actually forced to do it.”
Roubini on what matters most right now politically:
“All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we’re not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we’re reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm.”
Roubini on the complexity of the central banks response:
“Everyone is going to do more monetary easing…We live in a world in which the problems of the advanced economies are not problems of liquidity. Banks have plenty of liquidity. The problems are fundamental solvency. So just throwing money at it implies that the loss will continue to collapse and banks will hold extra money in the form of excess reserves. The credit mechanism is broken and there is no creation of growth in most advanced economies. So it doesn’t affect real economic activity.”
Roubini on Merkel saying euro bonds are “the wrong way” and whether she was speaking to European leaders or voters in Germany:
“She was talking to both of them. The trouble is if there is not going to be an agreement on some point on having e-bonds I think the situation in Europe is going to become disorderly. Italy and Spain were are doing massive fiscal adjustment, but their spreads are still very high… At some point the Germans will decide, do I take the credit risk of backstopping Spanish and Italian debt in exchange for some loss of national fiscal sovereignty by Italy and Spain in which case the euro zone has a chance to survive. Otherwise, this will become disorderly in the next few months.”
»
- 26198 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Officials Say Germany Becoming More Amenable Before Summit
"Despite the public resistance, senior officials involved in the closed-door deliberations said the German government was becoming more amenable to quick action and they were hopeful an agreement could be reached at the two-day summit.
The most likely plan, officials said, was to use the eurozone’s €440bn rescue fund to purchase Italian and Spanish bonds, but the officials cautioned that no deal had been reached last night. Such a programme would require new reform conditions for both countries, particularly if the fund purchased bonds directly at auction rather than on the open market.
Other ideas, including finding ways to funnel bailout funds to Spanish banks through special investment vehicles, were also being explored, as was removing seniority status for Spanish bailout loans, according to people familiar with the talks."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81872d52-c05b-11e1-9867-00144feabdc0.html
"including finding ways to funnel bailout funds to Spanish banks through special investment vehicles.." is that a midnight drive in an armored car?
"...things together are getting worse."
This is really late-breaking big news. Nour-shit Roubini hits another one outta obvious park. Between throwing penthouse poontang parties and private art shows it's amazing he has time to throw us these phucking nuggets of galactic insight.
And he thinks it is cool to ignore all legal, political and historical aspects.
He has a very narrow horizon. Sorry to say that.
He said in 2009 that this is a "saukers rally". LOL.
We're all doing to die !!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh
Don't count on it. Count Chocula here's probably gonna live 4ever surrounded by rejuvenating babes like that.
Vitamin P the ultimate rejuvenator! LOL
Roubini is right. Reborn virgins won't satisfy anyone. And I should know. I'm married to one...............
I thought that image was photoshopped, I guess he is getting ass.
Hard to take this guy seriously.
Vagina Wall
Hard to NOT take that seriously.
Hard not looking at her seriously.
Serious hard-on looking at her.
Curious ... if Dr. Doom has a VagWall, then what does Krug have on his walls ... ?
My guess is a super-magnified photo of Barney Frank's anus. Hedgeless Horseman posted it here a while back. Help me out here Hedgeless...
Shit, spaghetti, corn flakes, you name it.....he'll throw anything against the wall to see if it will stick.
Looks like the model for his vag wall had her clittoris removed and was suffering from ghonnoreeaha(sic). What's that a Camel's pussy? Where's Mr. Roubini from?
All parts of the larger crisis of confidence. Add a dash of rampant fraud and you have collective John Galt.
Of course they are! Are people really this naive to think that Germany would let this fall apart and throw everyone into a depression?? They'll do whatever it takes to keep it afloat for another 6 months, then start it all over again. But by that time, we'll be hitting yearly highs on SPX.
I agree with Cult_of_Reason. Germany signals toughness, but wiill agree to something. What that something is .,,?
I think you're wrong. I think they have decided to set Southern Europe adrift.
Read - Of Euro Bondage - http://theneedleblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/27/of-euro-bondage/
that assumes that germany is under german control... much like the united states, it is not.
Control by whom then?
If any country is under 'control' Germany is. Don't get me wrong, it's in the Shit because of the open Euro liabilies, and hidden banking liabilities, it has already taken on board but it is still under 'control', if any democratic nation ever has been.
international corporate/banking interests owe very little loyatly to the host countries. Politicians are captured and work against the interest of the people in many cases.
John, I take your point and it's a fair one.
But the corporate/banking interests are screwed anyway, or atleast they're going to take a big hit. Throwing a firewall around Germany, Switzerland, and the UK may be their last best hope, in Europe. The money is already drifting that way. The big money is already evacuating the danger zone. Even if you were correct and these interests control Germany, with so much at stake why would they risk everything on Germany propping up the Euro?
Ever thought that Germany is the perfect hedge ?
Edit: Perfect hedge is incorrect. I mean one of the few viable hedges left.
hard to say what the plan is or was... I think that collapse would be the perfect crisis that could get people to buy off on greater consolidation of financial control and power. So much of this is just funny money anyway. the key will be, who owns the real assets after things fall apart... and did they use paper money schemes to gain control over real assets?
When push comes to shove, the only 'real' assets are vital natural resources.
Everything else can be nationalised, made obsolete, or requisitioned.
That is the very bottom line.
Yeah, like vital natural resources cannot be nationalized
“... The trouble is if there is not going to be an agreement on some point on having e-bonds I think the situation in Europe is going to become disorderly. Italy and Spain were are doing massive fiscal adjustment, but their spreads are still very high… At some point the Germans will decide, do I take the credit risk of backstopping Spanish and Italian debt in exchange for some loss of national fiscal sovereignty by Italy and Spain in which case the euro zone has a chance to survive. Otherwise, this will become disorderly in the next few months.”
- Yes, Nouriel, and if you get your e-bonds, the situation will get disorderly some months or years later and the catastrophy will be much worse, because then, much more economic substance will have been consumed and much more savings and capital misallocated.
There is no easy way out. And I think, Nouriel, you know that. So, what game do you play here?
Subordination of private bond holders renders this 'Solution' very risky and possibly worthless.
Roubini has proven himself Right again and again....
Yes, but did he say anything about gold?
Last time he said gold could kiss goodbye to ever reaching $2000.
This time he says that next year will likely bring a perfect storm of global monetary easing, sovereign debt crises, defaults, and war.
How about that for cognitively dissonant?
GOLD IS A BARBAROUS RELIC!
THE GREAT ROUBINI HAS SPOKEN!
Aziz! Light!
~//~
The Fifth Element (Alech Taadi)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhOIrzjIGpE (4:21)
http://gawker.com/5730855/now-you-can-live-in-nouriel-roubinis-former-vu...
CapitalAccount
http://www.youtube.com/capitalaccount
Free-Market Banking Technology fights the Intergalactic Monetary Mafia! ( ZH !!! )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-s7tcQlhUA (28:03)
Gerald Celente on Old-Man Europe, Romney & Sons, and a Golden Summer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynsAFg4ovCo (28:03)
Cyprus lands in Europe's "Bailout Crosshairs," as the BIS says "Hold the Presses!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HX8_J7ZQDM (28:00)
Chris Martenson on Shadow Bank Runs and how Central Banks are Missing the Boat!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewRHTik_JD8 (28:04)
The Roub has not been a consistent playa' here. Why does he own the doom now? Why do we care when he was a mouth piece that supported the kick the can regime?
Folks can just be "wrong" and we can forgive them and welcome them back to the fold... BUT FUCK HIM. I don't care what he says now. He had it, abandoned it, and now he has religion again?
My sentiment exactly.
Yes, and if you look a little closer, he is still a can kicker.
What is an e-bond if not a big can kick?
o,
you answered your own rhetorical question.
w,
speaking of "can kicking", i liked the
sisyphean can shouldering image quite
a bit. the can isn't kicked, it is shouldered,
as you depicted. the 1% kick it, the rest carry it.
lately the roub has been detected in more positions than a rogue electron.
but i think he has ultimately come to the conclusion that he has more notoriety as dr. doom than he does as dr. lukewarm.
Carnac ponders the sealed envelope...
"John Corzine...Paul Reubens...Hugh Grant"
The straight man assistant dutifully repeats the predictive answer. The pregnant pause ensues as the envelope is ripped at one end and air blown in to expose the edge of the answer sheet. The sheet is pulled out and unfolded....
"Name a banker, a wanker, and a skanker discovered in a wrong position."
I appreciate the sentiment, but Johnny Carson would have come up with a much better punchline.
+1 for the rogue electron metaphor
You need to be around here more grrl. I like ur posts. Always spot on.
Thanks MsCreant. I always enjoy reading your posts as well...
He had his time. It made him famous. So much attetion it went to his head.
He liked the "attention" so much he put it on his wall.
Can't fault a guy for liking that attention, women are beautiful.
Of course, when you put it on the wall you kind of jump the shark.
He is coming back cause his phone calls aren't being returned and the parties are probably less popular.
Everyone has 15 minutes. His problem is that he thought he had more.
pods
He can lick his apartment walls for all I care
It may be all the pussy he can get now...
Love ya Rahm, you naughty bastard. ;-)
actually he never had it
he was a sell out from day one
You got it, MsC.
Before migrating over to ZH a few years ago, I spent a good bit of time on the Rube's web site. He had a good bunch of posters in the early days, and was probaly the best resource for what was really happening in 2007-08, but he turned and walked away. It was like he had been 'touched' by TPTB. He re-did the site, basically thumbing his nose at the riff-raff who weren't inclined to fork over the $4K/yr dues. He also threw his support behind the "kick the can regime" as you so aptly describe.
The NY gliteratti went to his head....maybe he is sobering up now.
Some of the others came to ZH as well. Any of you lurking out there, Independent Contractor sez howdy.
"Roubini and non-virgin" f'in hilarious.
Never liked Roubini....always comes across as arrogant....like he knows something no one else knows......then he states the obvious......and asks for a cheque.
bla bla bla now tell us something we don't know.
Sounds to me like the Germans wanted all the benes of tying itself to it’s weaker neighbors but does not want to bear any of the risk. Sounds awfully familiar.
Sounds to me that you don't know what you are writing about.
Awfully tiresome.
that's just my point of view.
no reason to be a dick.
dick
America soon to be the biggest born again Virgin the world has ever seen.!
Oh god, look at the stupid whore in the photograph. That's exactly
the type of shallow meat socket I would expect to be wrapped around
Roubini. What a sad little confused Keynesian.
I am Chumbawamba.
Good to see you around Chumba!
Where has sheep dog gone ?
He's in the ZH chat room with the rest of us wingnuts
exit the closet chat room, there be
your special spotlight for no-one, aka,
institutional surveillance.
join the people in their lame protestation.
there are possibilities.
so your're out of the slammer, how was it?
Bloomberg has gone to shit with this new format
what is a 'balance of payment' crisis exactly?
You can all hate all you want about how he went from Dr. Doom to Dr. Lukewarm all you want. And yeah he's back to gloom and doom. But this man's warnings saved my and family member's portfolios as I knew to sell the bank stocks and move money other accounts around to avoid massive losses.
Still thankful for his speaking out 5 years ago!
First of all, nobody but nobody sez 'Bahblel' quite like Roubini. He could get a job on television with that 'bahble'.
Think of it ... television!
Guess what? No matter what the Germans do or don't do this will become disorderly in the next few months.
ZHrs are better off citing TD and their own commentators than this guy. ZH is the benchmark for authoritativeness, and the number of sites linking here prove it. No hype. The numbers prove it.
Never read one word after seeing the blonde.
"we don’t want to take all this credit risk of backstopping of $3 trillion of Spanish and Italian debt"
How could Germany with an economy the size of ~3,5 trillion possibly do this? Mind to elaborate? And why should Germany do this, if she could?
Also the permanent blabla about mutualized debts, no matter wunder which camouflage (eurobonds, redemption fund...) the come, is void. Such things are in contrary to the constitutions of Germany, the EU treaties, and the interestsof the people in the GANFs (Germany, Austria, Netherland, Finland). So they will not come. Plus, there must be consequences if you party to long and hard, on borrowed money on top of that.
A virgin, born again or otherwise, isn't gonna satisfy anyone. They'll just leave ya there feeling "blue".
THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE AN ESM BAILOUT. Per the der Spiegel article (see below) of last Thursday German President Gauck is not going to sign into law the ESM legislation. The matter will go to the German Constitutional court which will likely issue a decision in late July that a German popular vote on the ESM must be held which means at the earliest a referendum might be held in September-October. Recent polls in Germany show the voters are against the ESM.
Tyler, would appreciate you publishing and commenting on the der Spiegel article.
--------------
Germany's Constitutional Court has asked the country's president to delay the ratification of the permanent ESM euro bailout fund and the EU fiscal pact. German commentators accuse the chancellor of trying to push the legislation through parliament too quickly.
Offering a brief boost to opponents of the long-term euro bailout program and the planned European Union fiscal pact, Germany's Federal Constitutional Court on Thursday asked the country's president to hold off on signing the legislation into law if the two bills are approved as expected by the country's legislative chambers next week.President Joachim Gauck's decision to respect the court's request means that Germany will not be able to ratify the European Stability Mechanism by July 1, which Chancellor Angela Merkel had hoped would send a strong message to the markets. Some opposition politicians are even calling the development a "slap" in the chancellor's face. "What actually needs to happen in order to wake up both the German government and the pro-Europe parties in parliament? For the second time in one week, the Constitutional Court has applied the brakes on the government for the overly hasty implementation of euro bailout measures. This time it is 'requesting' that the president wait before signing the treaty on the ESM. It's a preemptive request, because it is assumed that the Left Party and some members of parliament will challenge the decision in parliament and that the court will need two to three weeks to review the suit. With the request, the court is able to avoid having to issue a temporary injunction against the treaty, which could lead to a complete escalation of the situation." "The ESM and the fiscal pact impinge on the core of the Bundestag's budgetary autonomy. The constitutional court judges will probably rule that the constitution's possibilities have been exhausted. They will then only accept the new treaties, when, within a reasonable amount of time, the people are also allowed to decide." http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-press-review-on-delay-to-ratification-of-permanent-euro-bailout-a-840403.html
Roubini is an asshole.
..
You will know it is getting worse when the great Nouriel opens up his site to the masses like he did in 2008.
And for posterity lest we forget Nouriel and Larry Summers are joined at the hip.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/disclosure-LSummers0403...
and as for Ian CFR Bremmer I wondered during the interview if at times his mind hadn't drifted to last Sunday morning and Nouriel's leftovers
No shit, huh wang? Good info, man.
Great interview until the last 5 minutes. The smugness around the USA is breathtaking, and, amazingly, it's growing day by day.
THE USA IS 16 TRILLION IN THE RED.
What part of that is some (long-term) strong position !?!?
couldn't agree more.
Roubini as usual 'the last in line' - tell me somtin I didn't allready know.
The funny thing is that many of the money experts are promoting QE as an solution. Exactly what the NWO want’s LOlz
Non of them is talking about actually getting rid of those phony debts and putting people in prison.
Like said: As long as the dumfounded experts are talking about how to pay this debt the banksters got us by the ballz.
The NWO want's mor power to the banks so what does Roubini say, more integration LOlz
The guy knows notin.
If you look at it from the conspiracy side it’s all going very well.
We already knew that this crises was engineered via the creation of unpayable debts trough the derivative instruments. An huge success.
On the Bilderberg meeting they issued the question to implode the economies now or wait a little and pile up even more debt. Lindsey Williams heard from the elite that they won’t implode the economies this summer to get more debt going into the system.
We heard from Lindsey Williams that they want to finish the dollar at the end of 2012, that they didn’t change their timeline on that.
If you believe it or not, it’s happening!
Kudos to Roubini with the cunts on the wall, how many of you bitchez gotz beige? Notice how everything is beige nowadays? Beige is a symbol of cuntly power, only Bitchez go with beige and boring. Men choose assertive colors like blue and green.
I would say his virgin analogy is wrong, it would be more correct to use a pimp analogy where the punchline is, "What, you want to get fucked again?"
The old joke where the bartender sends the john to a seedy part of town and tells him to climb the back stairs of an address and knock on the door. After knocking he hears a deep voice say, "Who is it?" The john answers, "I'm big Moe and I wants to get fucked." The pimp says, "slide $20 under the door." A little while after the john slid the $20 under the door nothing happened so he knocked on the door and again the deep voice asked, "who is it" and big Moe said, "I'm big Moe and I wants to get fucked." the pimp replied, "what, again?"
Glad to see he is finally coming around to seeing the difference between creditor nations and debtor nations instead of saying were all going to end up like Japan.
That is a huge fucking concession from a deflationist like Roubini.
There are more than 50 ways to leave your pussy.
minute 13: 00 to comment "we clear markets" chaotic hilarity ensues, rightly so, and then, soon, all the bullshit resumes.
yet, in the hilarity, no one is laughing;
again, rightly so. this bremmer dude, what an a-hole, no? me thinks he has no understanding or compassion
concerning human beings. ya?
such a little boy machine mouth piece for the gobble
usup doomsday fucktard globalistssssssssssssssssssss.
"bullshit resumes"? So the "we clear markets" is not bullshit ?
I am not sure from where I am sitting that I am seeing the Fed simply letting markets "clear" !
we let markets clear is bullshit. (hilarity). we do not
let markets clear, we support failure as systemic
structure, and we do not have rule of law as is
ideologically required to attract scared money from
oppression, whether endogenously or exogenously
inspired.
dude..."the gobble
usup doomsday fucktard globalistssssssssssssssssssss"
are in charge now...not what Roubini is talking about.
and?
Where's the photo of Roubini snorting cocaine off the bimbo's tits?
And while these talking heads are talking like this corporations must be moving like all hell as if it will turn out the worst case. The more they move the faster the fear becomes reality.
Interesting how they talk so well about the US. They must live in a completely different US than most people.
What do you think Goethe would think?
Goethe would immediately recognize that nothing supports the promises made by the bankers. Castles in the air have no foundation.
Talk is cheap. No tax on keeping on talking about the problem. The problem is that there is no solution which is agreeable to all concerned.
You can only cut so much before you hit the bone.
This short term approach of first bailing out banks by the governments and central bankers and subsequently weaker governments by better performing countries is likely to continue till the debts become so large that it would not be possible to role them forward.
Then The Game Ends and the System Reboots.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html
Germany is a slut. Even while she's getting fucked by Greece she's giving come-hither eyes to Spain and Italy.
Shadow banking system greater than visible banking system: Analyst
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/06/28/248349/shadow-banking-system-gre...
.
piano catching.