Rumor Meet News: S&P To Put All 17 Euro Nations On Downgrade Watch
Just as we noted earlier from the leak to the FT, Bloomberg is now reporting further that
S&P Said to Place All 17 Euro Nations on Rating Downgrade Watch
The AAA aspect is probably the most critical still and the differentiation between Austria and France and the rest of the AAA European sovereigns has been plain to see for a while but the major direct impact of this move will be on EFSF bonds (and the entire support structure) which managed to rally back from just over 200bps to 148bps close today.
EFSF spread to Bunds remains 35bps higher than immediately post the EU Summit.
Charts: Bloomberg
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nobody could have seen this coming. i'm shocked. SHOCKED. lol
Sha na na na na......
Aaannnd, third leg down underway, look for the move to go under even for the day, slight dead bounce to finish even at the close. Your Algo Market at work, ladies and gentlemen.
And gold is down why? Liquidating to cover what?
Central Banks leased gold to free up their asset sheets, then they leverage the cash 10 to 1 to create liquidity.
Leasing gold quells demand, dropping the price.
KABOOM!
Today was the easiest trading day of the year. Drinks on me.
Thank you and congrats!
It seems at least 2 people are recovering alcoholics.
Just like love, once is forever
More than two in here. I'll have nice cup of Columbian java and strike a match.
Why "recover??"
Rehab is for quitters...
If your choices are recover or die, which mine were, recovery seems like a good choice.
...sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly, but they always materialize if we work for them...
Amen, brother.
Welcome back!
Thanks, Hulk. It's been a while now, but the memories are still fresh. A clear mind is going to come in handy in the days ahead.
Glad for you !
My fresh shorts, MS and FMCN are trading near their highs, shit ! WTF. All red today for me.
Speaking of which, my ex-wife's maiden name was Allred. Ah, ghosts of losing trades' past. Such is life.
So the part of the trade that I outlined that doesn't work is shorting financials because they are the one's shorting gold on the way down. They know the trade too.
But they will get crushed from here on down to Dow 11,500 so I would load up here if I were you.
@Hendrix, perhaps I'm slow today but I fail to see any rationale for BORROWING gold... seems like kind of a paradox....
The Fed has 14k tonnes on their books on loan from the Treasurie (8k tonnes of which is being held as custodian of Germany). The Fed is allowed to do what they want with this digital gold (the gold which is suppossedly held in Knox and other US Military forts).
Back in the '60's, to quell the rising demand of gold, the US sold it outright on the open market. They did this in cordination with the IMF and Britain. By the early '70's they realized that they were selling all of their gold. So they closed the gold window, and stopped selling it. But this had an impact on price; as demand shot up, price followed. So then they began to lease gold.
They told countries such as China, "Hey, if you buy our paper, we will lease you gold." China thought, "Well, that will hedge our paper positions, so we will go along with it." So now when the Treasurie calls China and asks for them to buy paper, China calls the Fed and asks how much gold they can lease to hedge for inflation of paper assets.
But the Fed cannot prove that this Gold exists and resists any congressional mandate to audit...Would you resist any madate to prove you actually had sex with any babe?
convert to cash... stuff your matress... remember M/F Global... cash is king...
Paper burns and your house is on fire.
Fiat Paper contains 12.44 BTU so it's never worth nothing until you convert them to heat.
Gold is down because fools have to cover losing paper investments.
Gold was down before equitie was
If silver can't catch a bid even after all 17 Euro nations get threatened with a downgrade and with the viability of the euro front and center, then it's probably time to get out.
Silver was the BIGGEST joke of 2011. There's only ONE person who made money on silver this year: Eric Sprott, and that's only because he spent a good portion of the year pumping his funds with hyperbolic nonsense, and then dumping millions of his shares into the subsequent hysteria.
Plus, remember Buy physical, crash JP Morgue? ....what a joke! Silver is doing EXACTLY what it did the last time it went parabolic in the late 70's and early 80's: it's slowly grinding back to reality.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
I made money, and JPM is down 16% year to date.
Winning! Duh!
You've convinced me, I just sold and bought Bernanke bux. Thanks.
I had you on downgrade watch but your downgrade to fucknut is imminent if you keep posting rubbish like this. Just a heads up.
Egan-Jones has him at junk
Ratings from taraxias and Egan-Jones have proven far more reliable than those from S&P, Fitch, and Moody's.
Sorry Max. I made out pretty good on silver this year. Better luck next time...
Well, silver began the year at ~$30. Currently, it's under $32. If you consider the huge, ripoff margins between wholesale and retail, you're definitely underwater.
Or, you could have been trading paper silver, which is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what the doomer lemmings say to do. And you certainly weren't following the advice of Turd Ferguson. He totally missed the summer run (in fact, he advised to stay out of it), and failed to predict both the collapses in April and September. You would have had better luck with a dart board.
You should have just done your patriotic duty and bought a 30Y bond. No risk. No volatility. No need to dig holes in the woods, and its got a 40 year trend of insatiable demand and proven safety.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
thirty year bull trend: 1981 to 2011 (really the bottom yield/top price of december 2008 still holds at 2.53% on the thirty year). the prior ten years, 1971 to 1981 were the last decade in a thirty year bear market taking yields from around current levels to 16% in the fall of '81, comprising the worst price declines, not to mention losses from inflation, in the history of the u.s. treasury market.
however your greater mistake is the wildly wrong claim of no risk, no volatility. the full coupon thirty year treasury, and even more its zero coupon relations, are highly volatile investments with price changes of twenty or thirty percent in a few weeks or months commonplace: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/TR/2011/0/continuous.html
"Plus, remember Buy physical, crash JP Morgue? ....what a joke!"
Yeah, whoever came up with that concept was a genius. He could make a killing as a lemming bait salesman.
I've never baited a lemming because lemmings don't know what real monie looks like.
Then explain my 102% gain from November '10to April '11?
Fuckwad.
Who cares. It collapsed into a pile of burning rubble afterwards.
For the year, it's only up a buck or two.
You should have bought teen retailers.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
Yeah, and short Bernie Madoff was the BIGGEST joke of 2008.
Also note that I, and everyone else who owned silver a year ago, is up 8% in Bernanke Bux. Gold did better, returning 21%. But the current price only matters if you are buying or selling. As the thesis of most silverbugs is to hold silver through a dollar collapse, they aren't selling now, and the low prices only enable them to buy more metal.
And I guess you missed the part where JPMorgan is down 17% in the same time period.
one might also refer to http://www.gold-speculator.com/editors-picks/5010-600-year-chart-silver.... for broad historical purposes or http://www.oilngold.com/analysis/research/gold-a-gold-stocks-during-peri... for a comparison of the price action of (gold) miners during the last deflationary depression (with a far less inflationary set of global central bankers).
Silver is doing EXACTLY what it did the last time it went parabolic in the late 70's and early 80's:
So you think the tops in for silver for the next decade or so? is that what u mean. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
today was thinking 32.20 to buy silver, riskd dwn and went for SLW calls instead
Youre right for the most part. Ive been advocating strongly against any new positions in silver since last April when it was clear it was heading parabolic and into a crash. What i cant comprehend is why people expect another new parabolic rise out of silver so short after the last when. Forget the ones that can't read a chart, just consider:
OK, so short the SLV (while maintaing a sufficient portion of physical in your possession)...
...or make that into a nice paired trade with a PSLV long.
Delivery bitchez...
SHOCKED!
S&P needs to pull its collective ass out of its head (sic). Why don't they just downgrade the entire world instead of this penny-ante country by country bullshit. Where were these nimrods before all this global-wide derivative inspired crap hit?
Nothing like being armchair quarterbacks after the fucking game is already over.
Look at this CHURN for stops before the S&P headline hit.. - shady - https://bitly.com/rrplmK
17 nations on the downgrade list? so fucking what? reality is an illusion caused by the lack of liquidity in the system. ben shalom, pour us another tranche of QE, we're getting thursty.
Isn't that an upgrade for about half of them?
it can't be the exact half, since it's not an even number, so it's 'about' meaning 8 or 9. if you are an optimist, you'd say for 8, pessimist - 9, realist - doesn't matter, probably all of them.
not, not, not lack of liquidity. insolvency. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111205.htm
December 17 ... prelude
yeah i called this in my earlier today post = entire eurozone = bullish¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿¿it!!!!!!!!!!
Still don't belive we're not living in a modern day Scientific Techoncrat Fascist Dictatorship spend five minuites watching this.
UNITED STATES is a Corporation - There are Two Constitutions - Sovereignty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVsMUpPgdT0
nobody expects a spanish inquisition !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tym0MObFpTI
Expecting 5 but got 17. How many standard deviations is that?
Any job in a privately owned currency system is equivalent to Slavery. We must Finish the Job started by JFK to End the Federal Express..... I mean Federal Reserve System..... Until then, I say take your Just Over Broke (JOB) and shove it you know where. For those who still believe in Voting, Ron Paul is the Only choice. Good Luck.
"For those who still believe in Voting, Ron Paul is the Only choice"
Well said.
To all Paul supporters: Convert someone today!
You can't. Some people are just born that way...
Many otherwise level-headed Americans are afraid of his Military/Defense position. They have been brainwashed by TPTB's position that the ME rejects our 'Freedom'. I ask, "What Freedom"? Moreover, the ME does not give a shit about our lifestyle, but our insistence on occupying their countries for their OIL.......let them live as they please and adjust our lifestyle to compensate for maybe not having access to all of their OIL...
Agree that when your labor is priced in something controlled by other men, you are a slave.
Saw an interesting piece by G. Edward Griffin about how JFK was NOT trying to break the FED by EO 11110 though. Makes sense.
http://www.freedomforceinternational.org/freedomcontent.cfm?fuseaction=jfkmyth
pods
that is an excellent read, High recommend!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=M1lJd2eLG0M
Well worth the 3 minutes, if you have not already seen the latest Dylan Ratigan rant on the debt and the lack of political leadership (gonads).
Waterfall, bitchez.
Holy shit.
EFSF fund is made of JUNK so wont ever be AAA....
ECB is collapsed
Central Banks are TOASTED
MAYANS TIME COMING
'Twas all good and then you fucked up with:
'MAYANS TIME COMING'
Mayan civilization has been downgraded by S&P - Timely as always!
Anyone notice how the $CAC was topping..Few people knew...??
Mayan civilization downgraded by S&P - Very timely...
QATAR,
BAHREIN,
DUBAI...
= JUNK
DUBAI just Empty Real Estate - A Desert of Speculation - DUBAI WORLD CO: IS IN DEFAULT and every BRITISH TRADER KNOWS IT.
and Qatar just GAS and oil speculation...no one wants to live in a desert...
No, you don't get it. Despite the fact that none of the member states are AAA - the EFSF is because it is the combined risk of these uncorrelated constituents that matters. There will be an EFSF AAA tranche, an EFSF AA tranche, and an EFSF high-yield tranche...
When do they downgrade Japan, the UK and the US again?
as soon as the 'bis' says so,... afterall they got the world in the mess were in now - all prize fighters love the upper-cut sucker shot
I wonder if this will take us to Defcon 2 on our Getting Back to Even scale?
Certainly starting to feel like ground 0.
That does it. I'm calling it right now.
Bullish.
For physical gold.
BULLISH!
why do I get this uneasy feeling that this "news" will fuel a rally in the AAA-lites, just like when the US was downgraded?
LAST AAA in the world will be.........(hint home of the frozen and land of maple syrup....suck on it yanks)
Mongolia? Vermont? The suspense is killing me...
Vermont or Aunt Jemima?
So you thought where was safe?
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2010/09/15/119333.html
Vermont?
I love Canada but won't suck on it. I do, however, wish more of it was like Quebec. Rick Mercer informed us yanks about the National Igloo which I didn't know about before. And thanks for letting the Irish vote. They deserve it.
Rick Mercer: Talking to Americans on Youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeNrgXZpeAw&feature=related
Iceland will be the only AAA+ nation in about a year.