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Rumors That ECB Will Transfer Greek Bonds To EFSF

Tyler Durden's picture





 

via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,

 

It has been rumored before, but allegedly the potential for the ECB to transfer bonds to EFSF is back on the table.

The ECB would transfer the bonds at cost to the EFSF (net of interest earned?) and the EFSF would participate in the PSI.

 

There are some positives in this.  Greece would get additional savings.  With holdings of over €50 billion, a 50% principal write down would be helpful to the overall situation.  It would also make it more clear that the bonds held by the ECB aren’t effectively subordinating other debtholders.  Those are positives.

There are also some definitive negatives.   Let’s say they transfer bonds at a price of 80% of par.  Then the EFSF would lose about 50% of par immediately (assuming a post restructuring price of 60% for the new bonds).  That would be a loss of over €25 billion.  It is just taking money from the EFSF.  That is bad on a couple of fronts.  The obvious thing is that the ability to leverage EFSF at all (and yes, some politicians continue to talk about that) is basically gone.  If the Troika will just use the EFSF as a way to bury losses they don’t want to take directly, no one will lend to EFSF on a leveraged basis.  Since most people doubt EFSF would be leveraged, it doesn’t have a huge impact, but is important.

 

The other negatives are slightly more subtle, though they could come out loud and clear.  The ECB could have taken the loss directly and just printed money for that loss.  So this demonstrates an unwillingness to print money.  The ECB could take the loss and get capital from the member states.  By using the EFSF rather than new capital calls, it is a sign that countries are at the limit of what they will contribute.  Hoping for new money is unrealistic – since this was the perfect opportunity to put up new money and tell the world that Europe is truly united and willing to contribute.  This just uses up money that was already allocated.

It will get very interesting if some countries actually come out against this.  If the EFSF was going to use guarantees to issue debt and then buy bonds of the PIIGS, that was one thing.  Now they are going to borrow money so they can hand it to the ECB.  That is different and may annoy some of the more prudent countries.  They may remain silent, but this can be a source of disagreement, and frankly, should be. 

 


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Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Why not?

Their balance sheet is a fiction, anyway.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

isn't that the whole point of EFSF?

 

TARP of Europeons. Slush fund to save bank's bad bets to socialize the losses on the working peons.

 

Europeons are going to find out what "socialism" is all about....paying for someone else's party bills.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Last hope..tick tock

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No. No. and No.

What this means is the following:

1) Such a rumor being floated means they DO NOT HAVE A PSI DEAL in place, and they are having to bribe the Greek Parliament parties to get them to vote yes.  This is a bribe.

2) Where does the EFSF get the money to buy these clearly worthless bonds?  If Germany owns a portion of the EFSF, this haircuts Germany, which they have already objected to re ECB purchases of Greek bonds.  It's why they won't let the ECB print.  It guts Germany's share.  They will object.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Jesus Fucking Christ!

What a shell game. Crash you are right I believe. There is no fucking deal on these shit bonds.

This is so stupid. Just when I thought my apathy couldn't rise any more.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 00:52 | Link to Comment spartan speculation
spartan speculation's picture

Crash is right. also The bankers can not let the CDS be triggered that is why we keep getting greece's deadline pushed back what is it now like 3 Fxxxxing weeks this Bs has been going on.  every day and every weekend we get headlines greece is wrapping up its debt deals.  You got papademos the banker appointed to make sure that the bankers interests are served. papandreou the fXXXing coward who sold his country and people out hoping that they dont notice so he can get back in again. the whole thing makes you sick 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Sounds like a pickle. Think I'll ride my motor-cickle.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Is Greece so important to the EU?  Answer: No.  Pull the plug, cut the souvlaki.  

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 00:57 | Link to Comment spartan speculation
spartan speculation's picture

slaughterer you do realize that banks around the world are all bankrupt they stay in business because the central bankers ponzi scheme is just to print and add debt to keep the game going. If greece says to hell you we're lrsving the euro and defaulting on our debt. the CDS contracts will trigger and then its the dominoe effect on banks. lehman brothers was just the warm up if this happens. but the bankers wont thats why all this bs daily. 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Can they take the Socialised Irish Bank debt also?

Say €60bn.

 

 

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Mongo
Mongo's picture

That is different and may annoy some of the more prudent countries.

Tyler, there is only one prudent country in the Eurozone... and it is about to go bust too

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Why don't they use the bonds to make a giant cake and then have a party?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Let them eat cake.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

cake is a lie

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Wow, the German taxpayers are going to fucking love this - the ink isn't even dry on the EFSF documents (the EFSF that the German's are basically guaranteeing) and they are going to take losses.  I'd bet a lot of Germans actually thought they would eventually get that EFSF money back, a la TARP.  This would end any such illusions.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Absolutely.  And guess what S&P and Moody's do to the EFSF bond ratings?  They'll never EVER sell any to the public.

In general, Germany has to just put a stop to all this bullshit.  Every convolution and maneuver is, at its end, nothing more than taking German money and giving it away.

A last thing is this . . . who says Greek default and leaving the Euro are connected?  Suppose Greece defaults reluctantly with no declaration but no bond payments in March, but resists any suggestion that they leave?

There is no mechanism in the treaty to leave either voluntarily or involuntarily.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I am watching as the end is near..and all the players are just scrambling for short term gains.....no one is thinking 5 years out...its down to two weeks out now...and how I can get as much cash as I can before it crashes...that is true with countries..with the politicians...with the bankers...with the investors....its steal it now...and the one with the most when it crashes wins....no one will account for this money ...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You are correct.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the Greek report given to the political party leaders did a comparison of what happens to Greece the rest of 2012 if it defaults, vs takes more debt to string things along.

There will be nothing in that report laying out the situation 2-3 years from now.  

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just another day of shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

Shadow Banking at its worst.  What an f'ing fullretard shell game this is.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

The EFSf will soon be delcared the KNOSSOS MAZE.  You will only enter at your own peril to look for the lost bonds of Greek sovereigns now defended by the Minotaur who will never let you leave the maze alive! You have been warned HF shills! 

Only the guy from the ECB has the key to it, the Ariadne thread! You have to speak pure German to understand that. Achtung!

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Considering the ECB funds the EFSF (who are we kidding right) then it doesn't matter who takes the hit as it all comes back to the same parent; SPV or otherwise.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If they do this won't Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Japan, The USA, The Maldives etc. want the same deal? Is that not the unsolvable problem? I say hold off on the Maldives until they eventually sink into the sea.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:06 | Link to Comment 1929agin
1929agin's picture

Friday, 2/10/12 "Fireworks" ... not the 4th of july? new independence for greece,and other piiigs...rumor?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 <<<+++  let's get a clown car of finiMinis over here, stat!

 <<<===  call a summit!

[sorry, BiCheZ, fiscal reatraint was ruled out so the pols could get elected so they could FIX this!  ...like they promised...!]

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:30 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

those finiMinis are quite the show, aren't they?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Olympia
Olympia's picture

GERMANY, the DISGRACE of Europe

...the barbarians, who forced beautiful Europe to get down Zeus’“back” and made her a prostitute ...the unworthy Europeans, who in 1945 “took Europe down” from “Mount Olympus” and in 2012 relinquished “enslaved” Europe to the Phoenician loan sharks.

Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe...

 

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html

_____________________

 

The German traitors of Europe along with the Phoenicians from Asia may have forced Europe to get down from the "back” of the Greek “bull”, but it remains to be seen how they shall pull it through with the “bull”.

 

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment GideonGono
GideonGono's picture

Can someone explain why exactly the ECB can't participate in the PSI? Why can't it take a haircut? Granted they would then be insolvent but who is going to put them in bankruptcy? Can't they just earn their way out of their capital hole thru interest income?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment EyeQ
EyeQ's picture

I believe if they agree to a haircut that triggers the CDS and that is what they are desperately trying to avoid.  Only private holders can take a "voluntary" haircut and this means the CDS is not triggered.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment GideonGono
GideonGono's picture

Thanks

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

The ECB is precluded from financing nations' budgets, and a haircut would constitute a transfer from the ECB to a country.  "What about the ECB's participation in sovereign bond auctions?" you say.  The semi-plausible excuse has been that it is within the Bank's purview to support debt markets for means of conveying monetary policy.

If such jujitsu in spin is too much, no worries.  Pop a Xanax, and move on.  Nothing to see here.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment GideonGono
GideonGono's picture

Interesting points

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Rumor the newly re-structured Lehman Brothers emerges from bankruptcy and buys Greek bonds at par

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Rumor BS never ends.  Long Euro, long Dow.  Ridiculous.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment allenaki
allenaki's picture

Greek Opposition Leader, Mr. A. Samaras has just rejected the creation of the so called "ESCROW FUND" been proposed by Troika, because "it 's pulling Greece under the direct German Inspection"

Is this the first step to sudden elections?

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

More like rejection #2 of Germany's wish to control the spigot of bailout funds. Frau Merkel's first try was a EU Commissioner to have control of the disbursement of funds to the Greek government. Greek Parlimentary pride was injured - so the Escrow account was the second try. For some reason, the Greek politicians want to be treated like adults: they are willing to promise all kinds of austerity stuff, now give us the money. Germany, and probably Austria, Finland, and the Netherlands - maybe others - look at what happened to the last bailout money and want a bit more control, rather than handing over lump sums.

They specifically want 80% of the money to go straight back to the lenders to pay interest on past loans - can't let the banksters down. Greece Parliment wants to preserve at least the semblalance of adulthood control over spending. They probably want more than 20% of the bailout funds to benefit Greece a bit more directly aswell.

Start with a bad assumption - that the Greece debt hole has a bailout solution, and all kind of weird-ass stuff follows. Maybe, hopefully, this will be the last straw deal, and Greece can bail/will be released to default - but I doubt it. There is sheer desperation in this stuff the past week - any damn thing to avoid a credit event and CDS payouts...

About 45 minutes ago, Bloomberg came out with "Emerging Markets Stocks Rise as Greece Meetings May Signal Deal Progress"

I mean - Jezzus H Keecrist - enough already. Just mercy kill this gut shot deer (formerly the deer in the headlights) instead of letting it flop around and bleed to death.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

And it's all coming to Amerika.   See www.nar2012.com

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Olympia
Olympia's picture

Global Debt Crisis

The greatest private fraud of human history.
Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
---------------------------------
By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

It really doesn't matter what the ECB or EFSF does.

 

Nobody gives a rat's ass about Europe, Greece, LTRO's, etc.

The Sheeple are too busy wolfing down Buffalo Wild Wings and watching sports all day.

BWLD exploding up by $10 after hours after reporting blowout earnings.

This chart is totally insane:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bwld

In fact many of my peers who have been continually investing in their 401(k)'s despite my early screechings in 2001 - 2002 "Get out of stocks!  Everything is going to crash", have done very well in stocks by dollar cost averaging year in, year out.

And those guys couldn't tell the difference between a CDO Swap and a iHOP pancake.

Good thing that since 2004, I have kept my mouth shut, careful not to give any advice to my Sheeple friends.

And good thing I finally learned my lesson not to fight the Alpha-Dog PigMen and TPTB by being a "short only" hero.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Arthur Anderson thanks you and your freinds for your ignorance.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment 1929agin
1929agin's picture

It really doesn't matter at all, HFT will move markets in time, slow accumulation in positions,  yields/credit market break in time, sit back, and enjoy the scenery.

Another round, please.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Bloomberg has a paragraph that says this is only for $14B.  So a tiny portion of the problem.

 

But I'm sure stocks will rally hard anyways. 

 

No real sollutions....just more can kicking

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

OK, this is easy. Watch closely now - I have these three walnut shells here in front of me. I'm going to put this pea under the middle shell. Watch closely now...

 

NFP

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

One of these days we are going to wake up and find this market gapping down 500 points with no algo floors........!

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Can someone tell me why the Euro is "strong" today....with all that is going on...i would think it would be at historic low.....like .80 to the dollar if not lower...strange

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Just default bitchez and get it over with.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Who is selling this junk to their clients?  Ok, I know who is, but how are they?!  These investments are shit.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

this is another shell game - musical chairs.....last one standing gets to stand in a bucket of shit...

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

This is the deal. The ECB has gone rogue, almost completely now subsidized by USD swaps via the FED. Their backward and bizarre idea is the last of the Euro-mess AAA sovereigns will underwrite sovereign junk via that obscene fund that Germany is backstopping.

I think that the ECB will implode unless they print. They print, Germany get a Weimar part 2 as does Europe. So those crazies will sit pat, for the time being, in the meantime they are buying PIIGS debt and the EUR. The EUR meltup that occured within mins last session was all ECB intervention via EZ banks. Equities (US) were selling on the close and Asia looks wobbly, the EUR goes bid? As for Greece, either they default now, or someone is going to get killed...literally. It's getting out of hand. Once Europe thaws out, Spain and Italy will erupt.

Clueless f*cking academic a-holes are sending us into a sh*tstorm.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment non_anon
non_anon's picture

and the EFSF to the US taxpayer

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

send in the FED and Bernanke (cover ECB losses):

--Sources say ECB agreed to exchange Greek government bonds it purchased last year at prices below face value

--Exchange is contingent on success of talks under way over new Greek bailout and debt restructuring, sources say

--It isn't clear if ECB will exchange bonds at below-par purchase price, or if it will make a profit

Two central banks are running the global economy.  Frightening.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The European dream is slipping from Germany's fingers and nothing will stop this from happening. Bad economics and bad politics have spawned a malformed creature that will die once it meets the sunlight of truth.

 

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 21:48 | Link to Comment benbushiii
benbushiii's picture

The FED will just increase the swap lines and help the ECB / EFSF monetise the black hole as they always have.  This is why the EURO which should be going down is appreciating.  The FED prints $s, sells the $s, then buys EUROS,then loans the EUROS to the ECB.  Because according to the Bernank the FED can do anything to provide stability (magical manipulation of the markets to preserve the banks on the backs of the people.  The problem with this in the long run is the world gets shorter and shorter the $.

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 22:00 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

I have an idea that I learned while taking economics at Harvard.  Why dont we just transfer the Greek bonds to the planet Mars???

Tue, 02/07/2012 - 21:59 | Link to Comment Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

I have an idea that I learned while taking economics at Harvard.  Why dont we just transfer the Greek bonds to the planet Mars???

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 00:36 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

There is the opportunity for strongmen to appear in the (relatively) more fiscally prudent EU states, notably Germany and the Netherlands, who will appeal to their electorate to "just say no".  Even the not-so-fiscally prudent states (e.g., France) can get the ball rolling by saying no to Sarkozy in the upcoming election.  Springtime is a bad time to make the masses angry, and not only in the Arab world.  There is either a disconnect between what the bureaucrats think the masses will accept, or else just a staggering amount of hubris and a paucity of respect for the citizenry.  I guess it is both.  Europe has seen bread and circuses before, and is on to the ruse.  They cannot be hoodwinked.  Perhaps I give them more credit than they deserve, but on balance they seem less gullible and maleable than Americans who, if they heard on the news that the number of unemployed was down to one single person, might well say, "Wow, it's just me!".

The latest Greek Deal rumors are a laugh, a cynical laugh that is.  Apparently the dealmakers were so engrossed in their work they failed to notice that a hundred thousand Greeks in Syntagma Square were there protesting the last deal's austerity measures.  Somehow these bureaucrats think new and further austerity measures will be more warmly received.  Combine that with Tyler's other article on tax and VAT revenue shortfalls, and anyone who thinks a new Greek deal means problem solved is....an equity market investor.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Upvote for ending line.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 00:50 | Link to Comment mammoth mo
mammoth mo's picture

You guys are looking at the trees not the forest.  The bondholders will sell their bonds to the ECB - end of story.  No haircut because the bonds will never be sold at a loss.  The bonds will be sold over the next 100 years (or so they will claim) in small minute amounts so as not to upset the economy.

Greece gets a get out of bankruptcy card.  The Germans get control over the Greek economy.  Everyone goes home happy - except the Greek people who are now full time hired help.

This is no end game - this is the new game.  Until further notice - the ECB and the FED will be absorbing any and all debt from large banks and favorable governments.

One way or another - the ECB and the FED get the greek debt.

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 05:19 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

The Germans get control over the Greek economy.

That must be about as exciting as the US having Puerto Rico

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Olympia
Olympia's picture

GERMANY, the DISGRACE of Europe

...the barbarians, who forced beautiful Europe to get down Zeus’“back” and made her a prostitute ...the unworthy Europeans, who in 1945 “took Europe down” from “Mount Olympus” and in 2012 relinquished “enslaved” Europe to the Phoenician loan sharks.

Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe...


http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.htm...

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 04:13 | Link to Comment Olympia
Olympia's picture

Loan sharks knew that if they took the dollars printing machines under their control they could suffocate the world ...they could initially suffocate USA and after taking the USA from the Americans, they could move and suffocate the whole world and take the countries from their people.

FED printed cheap money and loansharking multiplied this money in an unnatural way within the American economy boarders and they discarded them abroad so that they did not threaten USA. USA became the first state in the world with artificial “breathing”...

It cannot be possible but just in the USA for only the last year, more than one million houses were seized. It cannot be impossible but the New World has returned to tents and shelters ..has returned to the ages of Columbus. It cannot be possible that we allow to a few loan sharks looting the toils and the assets of people...

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html

------------------------

Global Debt Crisis

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 05:18 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

It is fortunate that the Martians own the EFSF and EUZone Government own the ECB otherwise we might be looking at daisy-chains and wonder whether Enron or Parmalat were advisers to the scheme

Wed, 02/08/2012 - 05:36 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

I'll never understand how they managed to rig it so that all the people in the negotiating rooms are on the same side (to save the bankers).

You would think that, since the people aren't represented, they could have come to a speedy solution amongst themselves.

Maybe they actually understand that there is a big risk they will never get away with it, and the citizens will just say no.

Seems they have a better understanding of the taxpayer's breaking point than us folks have (outside of Greece).

 

 

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